Re-re-re-reasonable expectations

by Lowetide

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OriginalPouzar

Puckpedia:

We calculate the new Playoff Cap Hit for the rosters that played in the final 2025 Cup Final Game:

#LetsGoOilers was $80.6M vs $88M Cap

#TimetoHunt was $93.0M vs $88M Cap

Reja

17 more sleeps until we upgrade the goaltending position.

VanIsleOil

Should we book it?

Reja

Yes I just phoned Stan and told him I can’t take another year of less than average goaltending and he agreed. I explained how Sather went through a bakers dozen in the first couple of years before hitting on Moog.

Stan has always valued the goaltending position going through the likes of Khabibulion-Neima-Huet-Crawford-Turco-Emery-Raanta-Darling-Leighton-Forseberg-Delia-Ward-Lehner-Subban-Lankinen-Fleury during his reign in the Windy City.

There is no way in hell Bowman starts the year with Skinner and Pickard. So far Stan has not telegraphed some of his moves and the goaltending upgrade will happen by August.

OriginalPouzar

There is zero chance any of the players will be eligible to sign in the NHL right after the decision.

I also don’t see Stan Bowman, of all people, re-instated back in the league for about a year after multiple-years banned in relation to a sexual assault matter, going anywhere near a player that was just on trial for sexual assault – not mater how not guilty beyond a reasonable doubt, actually innocent or whatever the facts might be.
Stan Bowman is a smart man and I would presume he just stays far away from that.

Not to mention, as far as upgrade goes, the subject goalie’s career save percentage is 0.01% better than Skinner’s.

OriginalPouzar

Gregor on the coaching staff:

Pelletier joins Gulutzan in Dallas.

Schwartz not re-signed.

I’m hearing unlikely Coffey returns to bench.

Stuart will be retained.

So two new assistants, a goalie coach and a skating/skills coach. Knoblauch is doing interviews now.

Goalie coach short list has Rodrigue and Aubrey.

Durag

Jeff Skinner signs 1x$3M in San Jose after deciding 5 playoff games is plenty.

Scungilli Slushy

Weird. I was thinking maybe he wanted to make more than 1M or something finishing his career out, but Puck P says dude has already made 110M. Maybe doesn’t like a lot of accountability that comes with the better teams

Sierra

Jeff Skinner signs in San Jose after deciding he likes to get ice time vs watching. Good for him.

Traveller

If he can have a rebound season with more ice time in San Jose, maybe he hopes San Jose can trade him to a playoff team at the deadline for a pick or two.

I thought this would be the first time in his career he would have been on an expiring contract on a team likely selling at the deadline, but back in 18/19 he was traded from Carolina to Buffalo with 1 year left on his deal and Buffalo extended him in June 2019 after the season rather than try to trade him at the deadline. No idea if they tried, but he had an NMC then.

Last edited 1 day ago by Traveller
winchester

i think you are very correct. smart move skinner

DevilsLettuce

San Jose gets a pick or prospect at the deadline from a playoff team for Jeff Skinner.

LMHF#1

Klingberg to Skinner all year could work out nicely.

OriginalPouzar

1-year deal likely means traded to a playoff team near the deadline.

Scungilli Slushy

So Bowman walked or dealt 49 5v5 forward goals this summer. While risky I think he had to, to improve their chances

The Duo had 4 more 5v5 GF last season than previous. Hyman dropped from 36 to 19, Nuge 11 to 9

It will be interesting to see if last seaon’s goal count will be replaced by the new guys. Also if the top 6 can be more productive with some fresh legs and excitement

Skinner had 14, Perry 13, Arvi 11, Brown 10, Ryan 1. So the highest total works out to a goal in just under every 6 games at 5v5. Looking at it that way it doesn’t look impossible

OriginalPouzar

I anticipate a bounce-back season from Bouchard over 20G and around PPG.

OriginalPouzar

The Athletic has the Mangiapane signing as one of the 10 best of the off-season.

leadfarmer

absolutely. Great signing.
overall needed a couple wingers and looks like he got them.

Durag

Was 92-93 shortly before the Oilers did that weird merged farm team with the Habs in Fredericton? I feel like that threw a huge wrench in the Oilers’ system that had knock on effects for years to come. IIRC they also just let the Habs have Claude Julien, who had a contract with the Oilers, for free.

OriginalPouzar

Samuel Jonsson is coming off a monster season in the Allsvenskan. Book him passage to Bakersfield, but maybe buy an open ticket for a flight to Edmonton later in the year. The Oilers are better at identifying goalies than they’ve been since Fraser went Moog-Fuhr in 1980-81, and Jonsson is the rising star of the group.

Full disclosure, when LT first starting talking about this guy in North America over the last month, I pushed back thinking a year in the SHL made more sense. We don’t know with any certainty where the org will have him play but it looks like North America and LT is smarter than me.

With that said, I have him in the ECHL with Day and Ungar in the AHL with Tompkins, no?

David Tomasek is 29, and miles outside the traditional definition of a prospect. He has an excellent chance to make the team in the fall, with established offensive ability in a fine league.

Such a wild card. My issue is where does he play? Its tough to find a top 9 spot for him and I don’t think he’s a 4th line player with Janmark (who should be traded out) and Philp/Lazar.

Hyman not starting the season could factor here.

Scungilli Slushy

Agreed Tomasek isn’t suited to 4th line, and I doubt he came over to be a grinder. I also doubt Hyman has enough time to recover enough before the season starts

Bowman must have some sort of plan, it’s sure different than Holland

Reja

Either Tomasek is playing a skilled role with meaningful minutes or he’s going home. I would think this is the deal his agent and the Oilers have agreed on.

OriginalPouzar

I have no doubt he signed to play in the NHL (and he had other NHL orgs trying to sign him) but I don’t think that means he wouldn’t be open to an AHL assignment for an adjustment period, if deemed necessary. Not for too long of a period but some period.

He’s on a one-way deal so he’d be making his US$1.2MM in Bako.

Reja

It’s NHL or bust at 29 eating alone in a diner in downtown Bakersfield is not on Tomasek menu.

Last edited 1 day ago by Reja
OriginalPouzar

You state this like you actually have any actual idea.

Perhaps Tomasek would very much value a couple of meals with Oilers Senior Director of Player Development, Swede, Kalle Larsson,

He’s be making about 10X as much as he would heading back home.

Again, the suggestion would be a relatively short adjustment period – if necessary.

Bar_Qu

It is a credit to Bowman that he has brought in a number of younger players who can compete for jobs & give the team options in the fall.
Hyman getting more time to rehab, as will Ekholm, means a better team from March onwards. Hopefully the coach is on the same page with giving rope to young players to earn their way instead of gifting time to vets with lower ceilings.

cowboy bill

If Tomasek can play meaningful minutes at 3c that would be bonus and if he can fill in up the line up on RW that would be another bonus. I’m hoping he’s the righthanded Nugent-Hopkins.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

I LOVED Kirk Maltby’s game! I almost mentioned Steven Rice yesterday in a chat about O’Reilly’s WJC potential. I was really pumped when Rice landed in Cape Breton. His first game there was the first game my Dad (also an Oilers fan) and I went to together. He was as pumped as I was about Rice because he wore the “C” for Canada at the WJC. Van Allen, Rice, and Currie were nicknamed the “VCR Line in CB and they dominated! But ultimately, Rice turned out to be more suspect than prospect.

Reja

When is the return date for Hyman?

Brantford Boy

Source?

Traveller

His Ouija Board! Confirmed by a Tarot card reader near White Avenue.

Sorry but Reja didn’t deserve a serious answer if he has read any of the ample press discussing the uncertainty of Hyman’s recovery timing including many posts on here.

Reja

I have no idea what the timeline of his injury is what is the short end and the long end. If at his age they think he’s not up and running till Christmas could this be a reason for the Howard trade?

OriginalPouzar

I believe he said he’s hoping to be ready for training camp although I think many suspect he’ll probably start the season a bit late – pure specualation by all of us (as far as I know).

Truth be told, a late start to the season for Hyman could have some benefits: (1) shorter season for Zack and (2) some opportunity in the top 6 for someone bumped up and someone else to stay on the roster (i.e. Tomasek or Lazar or Philp.

I think we all know that October/November is not really all that important in the long run for this team.

With that said, I don’t think the Howard trade has anything to do with the Hyman injury – that was an opportunity to grade a young skilled NHL ready prospect that could make a real impact. Bowman is not going to make bit trades because a player may be out for a month early in the season.

SVR

I think we all know if the Oilers are 4-9-2 in early November, this place will be buzzing with folks angry with players, coaches, and management. In all seriousness though, a decent start is always important as it sets up the team to just play their game, get new guys acclimated, and not reverting back to running McDrai into the ground to get back into the playoff race

OriginalPouzar

Don’t disagree with any of that.

At the same time, if the team starts 4-9-2, while the catastrophizing will be what it will be, we all reasonably know that, come April, the Oilers will be firmly in 2nd place and gearing up for a playoff run.

leadfarmer

Nobody knows at this point

Reja

I thought maybe someone that’s had this same injury could spitball his recovery journey as Hyman is 33 which is nearing fossil age for a effective winger.

leadfarmer

Well we don’t know exactly what his injury was. Dislocated wrist and some tendon injury is about as vague as they come. There’s quite a few tendons in the wrist

Reja

I can see why all these young wingers Hutson-Jarventie-Howard-Samanski want to play in Edmonton. Add in Tomasek-Podkolzin they will all be given a opportunity to ride the wave. All it takes is one 20 goal season and you have instantly won the Set for Life lottery.

Scungilli Slushy

The internet says – and of course it depends on a lot of things – 3 months to a year. He will come back as soon as he can hold a stick safely is my guess, and another one is he will be limited for some length of time

Which means he may not be a great top 6 choice until he can get back close to normal, if he can. As LT is saying on the the Lowdown he (and Nuge) didn’t have great 5v5 seasons given who they played mostly with

That is not how you want to proceed. I think their contracts had the idea (full term less cap hit) that when they started to erode they wouldn’t be too expensive to use down the roster. The flat cap put some hiccup into that, but it’s jumping now

Reja

I forgot to ask you earlier. I’m sure it’s happened already but has anyone told you yet?

Scungilli Slushy

He doesn’t know, too early

OriginalPouzar

Grubbe is a “fine player” but I don’t think he and Petrov are close or will every be NHL players – I hope they have great 3rd year pro seasons but they haven’t been close recently.

One player I am hopeful about? Roby Jarventie. He played just two games (two assists) before getting hurt last season, but there’s plenty of skill and he could be an NHL player. Not many of those in Bakersfield last season.

Yes sir, I’ve been talking about this guy for a while – it was only two games but holy hell was he not heads and shoulders above everyone else on the ice in the first game (and very good in the 2nd). I see an NHL ready player there.

I truly hope he is healthy enough to hockey train this off-season (as oppossed to rehab) – if he is, and he is able to stay healthy and get a run of games for two months in the AHL, he’ll impact that NHL lineup prior to the turn of the calendar – this is an NHL player if he can just play games.

OriginalPouzar

Noah Philp isn’t young, and acquisitions this summer appear to have blocked him, but if he shows up in camp with some jump, I like his chances.

It will be interesting to see if the Lazar signing “blocks Philp” or is “Philp insurance”.

Bowman had mentioned Philp a few times leading up to free agency and how he anticipates him playing a role this season.

When the Lazar signing first went down, I thought is was clear Philp insurance and injury call-up depth.

Since then, I’ve learned that Lazar is only one season removed from a very solid bottom six season and last season’s issues are linked to complications from his knee surgery (a pin that did not dissolve).

If Lazar can get back to the prior year’s form, he is a legit 4C but, for me, Philp has pole position and I hope that Knob gives Philp real opportunity to be the opening night 4C – more size and speed than Lazar with many similar attributes – youthful energy too (even though he’s not that young).

Scungilli Slushy

Lazar is 90th percentile in speed, Noah isn’t as fast, but skates well enough it seems

OriginalPouzar

Is he?

To be honest, I don’t really trust the NHL Edge data but, if the intel is that Lazar is a plus skater, that’s great – I was not of that impression but not really in the know.

cowboy bill

Lazar might be valuable on either wing. Sounds like a Swiss army knife type.
Could be the ideal 13th forward at the very least.

Last edited 1 day ago by cowboy bill
Scungilli Slushy

I without knowing also thought he was not fast, but reading a bit and Edge seems to indicate he’s a burner. He did have a knee injury last season but says he feels 100%

Scungilli Slushy

I think the data is probably good, but top speed doesn’t mean much unless you’re on a breakaway or chasing one down

Connor isn’t the fastest player, of course one of them, but his explosiveness, ability to change angles and direction, his edges, and do it all really fast while handling the puck, makes him one of a kind

Reja

Savoie is lucky he made it out of the AHL without a major injury. Anyone that’s smaller of statue with skill gets headhunted and targeted. Savoie should of seen more big club action he could of easily of been sheltered on our veteran team and would of then been a viable playoff option. Coach K.K better lighten up and let Howard and Savoie learn from there mistakes as we need these teo to hit as Hyman and Nuge are aging out.

Last edited 2 days ago by Reja
OriginalPouzar

Matthew Savoie should have spent more time in the NHL this season. Young wingers can only get hurt in the AHL once they’re ready, and Savoie’s season (66, 19-35-54) proved he belonged in a higher league. At even strength, his line scored 65 percent of the total goals, while the Condors delivered 48.5 percent when he was off the ice.

I personally don’t think his development was hurt by finishing the season in Bako (and i see the benefit of him leading that team in a playoff push while it was absolutely desimated – it was really his team) but I do questions why the organization decided not to give him a real handful of games down the stretch when the big club was dealing with MANY injuries – there was real opportunity there and I think it would have been beneficial.

For all we know, he would have fit right in and made a positive impact and made himself an option for the playoffs, right?

Eh Team

A positive from Bouchard’s new deal (and McDavid’s next year) is that it will force young (cheap) players like Savoie, Howard and Philp onto the roster. Way less wily vets in the last years of their careers taking up depth roles.

OriginalPouzar

I think these players will also force themselves on to the roster with impact play.

Eh Team

One would hope, but Savoie should have got a run of 20+ games last year too.

OriginalPouzar

Agreed but that was last year and, well, the player is more experienced and ready and the organization has, seemingly, shifted to go with some more youth for this coming season.

At least management’s moves seem to indicate that – we’ll see where Knob’s head is in a few months and where his appetite to help these kids work through some inconsistencies and mistakes.

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