These are NHL equivalency numbers from 12 to 15 years ago, followed by the points-game totals in rookie seasons for some of Edmonton’s bright young talents during that era.
As you can see, all of these names outraced their expected totals, and Nuge by a handsome margin. The idea of NHL equivalencies, at least for me, is to give an estimate on expectations if the player is used in a regular role that is comparable to usage in his previous league.
That’s an important distinction. If you are expecting David Tomasek to receive a mountain of minutes next season with Edmonton, then it’s likely you will be disappointed. However, with the knowledge that he averaged less than 18 minutes a night while also putting up outstanding numbers (read about it here), well that puts him in a more promising light.
In 2015-16, Tyler Pitlick’s NHLE (from the AHL) was .26 points-game. In 2016-17, in the NHL, he delivered .35 points-game. That was an indicator he could play in the NHL. It’s important, and I’m not sure the method used is vital. We’re looking for a range, and we have to use the sense God gave us. Pitlick emerged as a bona fide NHL option. No one thought he would have a longer career than Nail Yakupov, but things worked out differently. Nothing in the numbers, or usage, indicated it. What the numbers did indicate was Pitlick had a chance to be a legit NHL player.
Moving ahead to modern times, Quinn Hutson is the proud owner of a .54 pts-game NHL equivalency. Ike Howard? He has a .46 pts-game equivalency. No one believes Howard is behind Hutson. I don’t think that’s the point of NHLE. It gives us a different view, a vantage point that allows us to draw a conclusion. We put all of the info in a pile and evaluate.
Howard is 21, Hutson 23. That’s a consideration. Stan Bowman signed one to an entry-level deal, traded a top prospect for the other (and then signed him to a deal). Who do you think is going to get a push?
All of which is to say enjoy Ike Howard, but don’t forget about old Quinn Hutson.
Can’t wait for the Nurse to LA rumours to start with the pics and videos of Darnell and Mikayla at Warren Foegele’s wedding….
This year is going to be a exciting start to the season with our 2 hotshot NHL ready wingers playing along side 2 very good centreman. I’m trying to recall the 2 best rookie scoring duets in our history. In 2010 Hall bagged 22 with Eberle getting 18. I’ll definitely take the over on Howard and Savoie as both will get special team minutes. They would have to get lightning in a bottle to come near Kurri 32 and Anderson 30 back in 1980-81. I’m hoping both these piss and vinegar wingers can feed off each others sucess and create some magic not named McDavid or Leon.
I’ll believe in Howard and Savoie getting meaningful PP time when I see it. History suggests at best they will get 30-45 seconds per PP (during which time they have to gain the zone and set up). Without significant PP opportunity we should temper points expectations.
There could be certain times when they are both in the top 6 but I would think most of the time one would be on the third line. Here is hoping Knob doesn’t discount the potential that both are indeed ready for top 6 time and having two youngsters in the top six at once is not, on its face, bad.
40 goals between the two is likely high – I’m not sure how much PP1 time either will see and, even with a new coach, I’m not sure PP2 will see much more ice than it has in the past.
With all that said, I’m just speculating.
If the team gets off to a good start, there will be more rope for young players in higher leverage roles.
I do think that Savoie could post 20/30/50 playing with Leon all season, maybe even higher if he truly pops – I’m not expecting that – there will be ups and downs and slumps and injuries and what not, mind you.
Best rookie wingers since the mid 80s?
Some people have really purged the decade and a half of darkness from their minds.
Cogliano and Gagner.
Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi
Who will be on PP 1 in Bakersfield? Akey-Samanski-Hutson It’s time we started giving prospects some rope this includes in net as the Finn might be another Dobes waiting to be hatched. I wanted Rodrique to get in a few games a couple of years ago but he didn’t deserve any last year as he couldn’t stop a beachball. I’m glad they cleared the way for the Finn.
Regula and Jarventie likely to factor in to the PP.
The Pitlicks will likely factor in, so will Seth Griffith – there will be a balance.
I’m not sure what you are getting at with respect to “the Finn” – are you talking about Vinni? He isn’t factoring in to North America at all for a while. He’s 19 and he played 2 games last year due to a back injury (I believe).
Maybe you mean the Swede? Samuel Jonsson?
The four minor league North American goalies look to be:
Tompkins
Ungar
Jonsson
Day
Tompkins is locked in to Bako, the other 3 could rotate between AHL/ECHL.
I like Day.
LT likes Jonsson.
Yes I meant the Swede. Who makes the final decision on where the goalies play?
I would suggest that Stan Bowman has the ultimate say in that.
It’s time to take RNH off PP 1 for spells to give us a different look. Use Howard-Leon-Bouchard as shooters the opposing D’s head will be spinning. On our PP 1 teams are giving Nuge the shot he either passes it off or misses the net. We need a shooter from distance and Howard checks the boxes. I would also like to see Tomasek as a shooter on PP 2
Last season, at 5 on 4:
McDavid, Drai, Bouchard, Nuge – 10.19 G/60
McDavid, Drai, Bouchard WITHOUT NUGE: 4.51 G/60
Caveat: The without Nuge number is in 13:18 of icetime.
I’m pretty sure you don’t think the PP runs through Nuge. They need a different look every once in awhile to keep teams off balance and I like the idea of a one timer by Howard. We need to immediately find out if Howard and Savoie have the goods if we are able to return to the Cup Final.
Does it run through Nuge? Of course not.
Do the numbers show that, when Nuge is out of the lineup, the PP consistently scores at lower rates, year after year after year? Yes.
Over the course of the last 3 seasons, Nuge is 3rd in the NHL in powerplay points.
I don’t think its the worst idea in the world but I do think Nuge plays a material role on the PP, including on zone entries.
I have no idea what McFarland may try and implement, maybe it includes some PP1 personnel changes, maybe not.
Perry gone and, if Hyman isn’t ready to start the season, that will force one personnel change.
Is it possible they give Frederic a bone early and have him as a front net presence aka Alex Chiasson a few years ago.
I personally go right by to Zack Hyman if he’s healthy.
It’s not just last year, it’s every season.
If they were serious about having two PPs to keep fresh legs and opponents guessing, maybe the play is to have Bouchard anchor a second pair with Walman manning the point on PP1.
The Oilers run a positionless power play with Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, and Draisaitl.
Without Nugent-Hopkins, the Oilers PP would become much more static. McDavid is able to roam freely, because Nugent-Hopkins seamlessly adjust to enable McDavid to do that.
Nugent-Hopkins importance to the success of this power play has always been underrated.
Maybe it is time for a change.
The Oilers powerplay would be better if McDavid shot the puck more.
I agree with everything in the post except would suggest its more apt to start with “The Oilers have run a positionless PP…:
I don’t think this changes much under new coaching but we don’t know what we don’t know.
I have no issue with the power play creativity. However, under pressure to move quickly if is good to have some set plays so you know where the puck is going before looking.
When teams give them space the Oilers pick them apart.
The only successful counter to Oilers power play is forced pressure, even if the front of the net is left open.
sorry I can’t write much more to explain. Filtered for approval. Brown is out. Mistake.
Point taken. Oilers need to get younger but there is risk. Absolutely. Kane still answers a lot of problems. I think he was moved out for reasons other than his points. It’s his nature.
Skinner is on the coach. Wasted.
Arvidson may not be as good as he once was but a relatively stable winger for regular season.
Im still on board for the youngsters, but I like some rugged mentorship to look after them as well. Helps with confidence.
I like the bet on younger players with their careers ahead of them rather than old players looking in the rearview mirror.
Mangiapane, Frederic and Lazar are known quantities. The new players don’t project to exceed the old by spreadsheet.
Who knows how much the old players have left in the tank?
Kane’s g/gp was 0 last season.
The Old players don’t project to exceed their own career stats going forward. Perry fantastic run, but over 40. Skinner wasn’t a fit, Arvidsson wasn’t a fit. Your spread sheet is as about as useful as male nips.
Yes, the newcomers have no nhl stats to provide clarity but it’s the right and only move to make.
Podkolzin came in younger then the parting Foegele and ate his lunch at a fraction of the price.
NHL numbers are the average of the past active three seasons. Post explaining flagged. Projections based on numbers are just that. The projections are not good. Projections may be useless, but still more useful than pure conjecture.
0 / 0 is not equal to 0. Kane’s g/gp is undefined.
Agreed, lots of goals and points Out with the 5 players moved (ignoring Ryan) when compared with the 3 In players. Going to need 2 young wingers to pop.
NHLe here uses Patrick Bacon’s equivalencies. Vaires greatly from the numbers posted by LT.
Points are partially a function of TOI/G and quality of line mates.
Jinner will definitely be missed.
The rest I am not so sure. Given opportunity, Howard, Savoie and Tomasek should make up a lot of lost ground.
I’m also expecting Bouchard to add 7-10 more goals and 15-20 more points from last season.
Why is that?
because I think he’s a 20-25 goal, 80+ point d-man as he enters his prime.
I think last year was an outlier year at only 67 points and his PPG from the year before (and this playoffs and the prior playoffs and the prior playoffs) is more representative of his new few years.
What would be very interesting is an offer sheet to Mason MacTavish and how that would shape a new look roster. Dare to dream.
Why interesting?
ANA has plenty of cap space to match
I look at as interesting from the standpoint of adding a young player of Mactavish’s ilk.
I realize it would be a pipe dream. But it would also add some more oomph to the lineup. Dare to dream.
From an Oilers standpoint, they can only offer less than $4,680,076 (which would be easily matched by ANA) or more than $9,360,154 (which, even with a rising cap, would likely be too rich for the Oilers).
This offer sheet tracker from Puckpedia is a great resource.
(I always thought a team needing to have multiple 1sts for an offer sheet had to have them in consecutive years. Not so! Has to be 2 1sts in next 3 drafts, or 4 in next 5. That’s how the Oilers would actually be able to pull off such an offer, as the only 1st they are missing is in ’26.)
Oilers would seriously need to find a way to create more cap space.
Which would make it all even more interesting.
I thought we lost Jarventie to Europe as his injury last year was beyond repair between him (agent) and the organization. If he gets up and running and gets some games under his belt it won’t take long until he pushes his way on to the bottom six. Howard-Savoie-Jarventie all 3 are ready as they are 21-22 years-old.
He signed back in Finland as he wasn’t sure the Oilers were going to offer him a contract – of course, the QO was a no-brainer.
I agree with you and I’ve been saying it for months, if his knee is healthy and he has the ability to hockey train this summer (as opposed to rehab) and start the season on time, if he stays healthy and gets a couple of months of games, he may force himself on to the NHL roster before the turn of the calendar.
He only played those two games last season but, my goodness, was he ever good in the first one – hands down the best player on the ice. Quite good the next night too, then he was never seen again.
If he can stay healthy and play games, yes, I see a legit NHL player there, this season.
For me, I never really put much stock in to NHLe and comparing NHLe among non-NHL players.
Part of the reason is, as you point out above, often close to impossible to predict “role” and that matters alot.
I would suggest that Howard and Savoie have very similar offensive pedigrees and potential to produce this season. If one plays with McDavid for most of the year while the other plays with Henrique and Frederic, for example, well that matters
Also, indicated in the blog, age for non-NHL stats matters a ton. There is no world in which Quinn Hutson should reasonably be predicted to produce as much as Issac Howard if given similar NHL opportunities.
I mean, Quinn Hutson is likely a distant bell to be more than a tweener in this league.
I don’t really like nhle for 23 year old juniors but some guys are just late bloomers and you never know. I don’t like nhle for upper classman as the best players are gone by junior year but that will probably change with players getting paid in college
If Quinn Hutson shows up Ike Howard, I would expect to see him rewarded. Edmonton is fortunate to have such high-level prospects. But they both have to earn the right to being regulars in this Oiler lineup. Much like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has over the course of his career.
Edmonton isn’t particularly fortunate. Most teams have 2-3 Ike Howards and every team has a dozen Quinn Hutsons.
I rarely write off players off after just a few viewings (I did with Alex Plante) but my first take on Hutson was not impressive. I guess we’ll see.
You sound like a glass is half empty kind of guy.
The Oilers have “2 Ike Howards” – Ike Howard and Matt Savoie.
I would also suggest that many teams do not have 2-3 of them – given they have been ranked, I believe, 49 and 53 in Wheeler’s drafted prospects, if we go by that list, most teams will have 1-2, right?
Funny, I thought I’d best be careful which words I use because someone like OP might correct me if he doesn’t agree with the phrasing. Yes I was using Wheelers rankings.
Tier 4 goes to what…about 65?
So “average” of 2 per team.
And yes, “many teams do have 2-3”.
Meaning we’re certainly not “especially fortunate”.
Interesting how we all read things differently.
I took the post to mean fortunate (since we traded away most of our high draft picks to chase Lord Stanley’s Cup).
I haven’t investigated but I would assume your many have two or three would largely be made up of teams out of the race over the last 5 years.
Agree – if he shows it, he shows it.
With that said, I would suggest that Quinn Hutson is about 4 tiers down from Issac Howard (and Matt Savoie) and unlikely to show the same time of NHL skillset and NHL readiness as either of the younger prospects.
I like the Hutson signing, he does have “a chance” but, for me, at this point, he’s a B- tier prospect that’s unlikely to become an every day NHL player.
I hope I am completely wrong.