Noah Philp is eligible for waivers this fall. So is Alec Regula. Both players have a chance to play in the NHL this season. Every year we talk about waiver worries and are (I believe) about evenly split about how much harm/good it can do for a team. I think we need to take a realistic approach to this year’s list of waiver worries.
Over the last decade, If we look at the AHL graduates who had success (Jujhar Khaira, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Stuart Skinner, Ryan McLeod, Mike Kesselring, Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg) and compare them to the shy ones (Hartikainen, Yakimov, Benson, tens of thousands of others) I think we’re dealing with players (in both cases) who have a resume with both strengths and weaknesses.
The weakness that does seem to be fatal for an NHL career? Foot speed. All of Hartikainen, Yakimov and Benson lacked the boots. Khaira, or Vincent Desharnais, are outliers in that speed wasn’t a strength but they had specific things that allowed them to make it all the way to the top.
So this year’s waiver eligibles feature defenseman Alec Regula, who is slightly below average as a skater; Noah Philp, in the 58th percentile; Ty Emberson and or Troy Stecher, who are both below 50 percent straightaway speed; Max Jones, exactly average; Roby Jarventie, 67th percentile last time they clocked him; James Hamblin, 84th percentile; Josh Brown, well below 50 percent; Cam Dineen, below 50 percent; Riley Stillman, below 50 percent.
So most of this list will clear waivers because everyone has defensemen who are under average foot speed. The Oilers have three who are under 50 (Emberson, Stecher, Regula) they believe in and one of them is likely headed to the waiver wire. Oilers general manager Stan Bowman could slow play things by bringing Regula along slowly in camp (injuries flushed his season one year ago) but in truth every team has a Regula.
For me, I love the waiver wire because it’s a free player and general managers can really wheel around it. The entire waiver process used to happen on a single day back in the 1960-1980’s, and Glen Sather was exceptional at bending the rules.
In 1986, the Oilers signed a pretty good defenseman (Craig Muni) who couldn’t be protected. So, Slats traded him to Buffalo four days before the draft. Three days before the draft, he was sent to Pittsburgh. After the waiver draft on October 6, the Penguins sent him back to the Oilers in order to complete the Gilles Meloche trade from one year earlier. Muni won three Stanleys with the Oilers, and went on to a long career. Free players are some of the best players.
A busy day on the Lowdown, Sports 1440 noon to 2pm. Steve Lansky and Tyler Yaremchuk will guest, and I’ll be joined by special guest Stephen Sheps. He is a Sociologist/Sport Media Prof. at Toronto Metropolitan University. He is also a friend of the blog going back more than a decade. Hope you can tune in!
Projecting Edmonton Oilers’ opening-night forward lines for 2025-26
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6514377/2025/07/25/edmonton-oilers-depth-chart-lineup-2025/
I like your prognosis, LT. You are very confident about the RNH redeployment. I hope you’re right.
ps. Very much looking forward to your conversation with Sheps today.
I like these lines – might want to see Tomasek ahead of Lazar as there’s more upside there, and I think I’d prefer Janmark over Lazar if we wanted a defensive/utility type to round out the bottom 6, but otherwise I like this mix.
I’m curious if shedding a bit of salary (Janmark, maybe Emberson) might open up space for a goaltending move.
Janmark has his flaws and he still has value, but it’s a lot of $ to be spending on a guy who might be in the pressbox most nights when the team needs a goaltending upgrade
IMO Lazar checks all the same boxes that Janmark does & maybe even more since he’s a RHC that can actually win draws.
I would agree that Emberson could be moved, depending on Alex Regula who might be the ideal 7th D. Janmark $1.45M & Emberson $1.3M off the books might be huge.
Im hesitant to move Emberson and I’d really only do it if we felt we were getting a substantial upgrade in net. He’s a young RH shot defenseman who can play with an edge. That’s a useful player to have under control for the next several seasons.
I think Janmark is a better PKer and his skating is much better. Lazar’s positives (right handed center, good at faceoffs) are in marginal “nice to have” areas that I don’t think move the needle that much on a team’s overall performance. However, Janmark makes nearly double what Lazar makes and while he’s a superior player, I don’t think he’s twice the player.
Again, I’d really only be interested in moving either out if there’s a clear upgrade in net (or another winger who can score 25+) being added to the roster.
After picking L.A then Vegas to beat the Oilers your batting average has to be hovering around the Mendoza line.
What’s the batting average on the “book it’s”……?
Just a shade under Robin Yount lifetime average. Last time I cheered against the Oilers was 2007 we had lost I believe 18 of the last 19 we playing the finale against the Flames of all teams a tie or loss places us below Chicago who wins the draft and gets Kane. I remember we were losing 2-0 when the Flames found out their final standing halfway through the 2nd and called off the dogs. MacTavish couldn’t help himself and we get the winner with 10 minutes remaining by wait for it…..Thoreson. I felt dirty about cheering against the Oilers and it took me 3 showers to get rid of the stench. Anyone that cheers against the Oilers in the Playoffs is nothing more than a TROLL.
That’s a, well, random, story.
I would think the last thing Regula needs is to be 7D – he needs to play, he must missed a full season and, lets not forget, he was an AHL d-men before that.
I think they want him playing big minutes in the AHL to get settled back in and then earn that NHL opportunity.
I would love to move Janmark’s contract. Based on last season, I’m not sure he has much utility over Lazar if Lazar regains his non-injured form (dealing with a non-dissolved screw last season) or even Philp – not at near $700K more.
I’m not sure that $700K could tangibly improve goaltending….?
Would not move Emberson without real value back – that should be a value contract for the next two seasons – he’s going to play over Stech and he’s going to be relied on for the PK.
Listening to Stuart on with Stauff last night and I think its clear that he’s 6D and Stech is 7D to start.
They will want him continuing to develop to move the puck faster – reps is what is needed.
— Love the Honeymoon reference: there was a time that Canada had a made in Canada mostly consumed in Canada music content. I remember seeing them one year while on a family vacation in PEI. Good times. They had a bunch of catchy hits
— Awesome your having Sheps on : he’s good people and have had the great fortune of getting to know him and his growing family in Toronto. : are the shows available to listen to after recorded ?
https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-lowdown-with-lowetide/id1706739162?i=1000719027999
Not sure if this has been mentioned, but now that the 24-hour-rule has passed, Scott Wheeler had some interesting thoughts on Ike Howard:
Given that swagger, and the fact that he negotiated a better playing situation for himself, it seems that he’ll be getting a lot of NHL games, even if he struggles or his 200-foot game is lacking.
(Wheeler is referring to drafting him 16th overall in a redraft, below Kulich and Snuggerud, but above Lekkerimaki, Savoie (at 19th), and McGroarty.)
It sounds like the range of outcomes is wide.
My best guess for boxcars is something like 75-12-18-30.
I could see a good start in the first 10 to 20 games, until teams buckle down a bit and he starts feeling the true grind of the NHL.
I think Jarventie is in a similar spot to Regula – tough for a team to keep that player on their NHL roster given non-established at NHL level and so long since they played (save his 2 games last season).
Bowman spoke about internal progress as way to strengthen a team.
Skill Players
I felt he was talking about the role of playing NHL games will have on April version on Howard, Savoie Skinner and Podkolzin.
Grinder Players
The internal progress we need for the April version of the team size and truculent. Games time needs be dedicated to players that are equipped to add this dimension of the game. I see Regula, Philp and Javentee (is he 6-2 209lbs or 6-2 184lbs) as our assets.
protecting the grinders from waiver pick ups is important for the make up a SC team.
None of those footspeed lackers could shoot the puck. Having a cannon can remedy not being lightning on ice. More players and coaches need to remember that. As can being positionally smart and a strong technical skater. All of the above can be learned.
Although when it comes to Teemu, that was idiotic coaching. If you couldn’t turn that guy into an NHL player, you didn’t deserve the job. His pro career illustrates that clearly even if a coach couldn’t see the skillset and potential. I’m sure I don’t even need to post “the goal” for most here to know what I’m referring to.
I feel horrible saying it but part of me almost hopes that Hyman doesn’t start the season for 4-6 weeks.
It would, not only give additional opportunity to a top 6 winger (maybe Savoie, maybe even Tomasek, maybe Frederic) but it would create the cap space for have a full 23 player (14F) roster and give opportunity to ALL the bubble players – Philp, Lazar and Tomasek.
I’d like to see what Tomasek can do in a top 9 (or even top 6) role. I’d like to see Philp at 4C or maybe both Philp and Lazar in together.
It would also decrease the length of the season for a physical (playoffs) player that is in to his 30s and plays a hard game.
I don’t like saying it.
Just like Rodrique new boss had a look see didn’t like it so much. Philip had a window a few years ago may have blown his chance. Oops this is meant for your conment below on Philp.
New boss also expressly brought up Philp in early off-season citing he expects him to impact the roster this season.
Some wild black and white thinking from you this off-season – on pretty much everything.
It looks like they brought in Lazar who hasn’t played in the minors for 5 years to be 4th line wins faceoffs PK or a extra forward. Where exactly does Philip fit in? I know you had high hopes for Philip just as I do for Clattenburg who I believe at the end of the day plays more career games for the Oilers then Philip does.
I’m not sure, perhaps Philp doesn’t fit in currently. Perhaps Lazar is simply “Philp-insurance” if he looks to not be able to handle the role.
I hope Clattenburg plays hundreds of games for the Oilers.
Shit, I hope he plays 50 this season and scored 6 goal in the playoffs.
I don’t think that’s a reasonable projection for this year.
I see Lazar as Philp-Insurance and also a challenge to the player. Here’s the guy you’re battling with a roster spot for, you’re not going to be given a spot just because you’re a RH C.
I don’t like blocking prospects but understand that there’s value in having an insurance policy like Lazar in case Philp struggles
That was my original thought upon signing but, since Lazar was signed, even Stauff has stopped talking about Philp……
Clear the track here comes Clattenburg. Connor is going to have his own song in Bakersfield by Christmas.
If Clattenburg, at the end of his ELC, is as strong an AHL player as Philp is right now, that would be a major accomplishment for him. Then you can seriously expect him to play NHL games. But he’s a long ways from that right now.
Even though they are both bottom 6 players they are applying for vastly different jobs. Buchberger was 20 when he made his debut. Clattenburg would have to instantly pop coming out of the gate but the man can skate along with his other talents. If he can show he’s not a liability on the defensive side and chip in with the odd goal this kid has a chance at getting a cup of coffee. Bowman seems to like having a full roster unlike Holland who seemed to hamstring himself every year. Also for what it’s worth most OHL teams pick leaders and hard workers as there Captains not bums.
Honest question, have you actually seen Clattenburg play a game not in Penticton (or even in Penticton)?
No just the games you mentioned and hi-lights of Flint games. A ex co-worker and fellow retiree that played Junior hockey when Abraham was a teenager catches the odd Flint games and says the kid has a better than long shot chance of making it to the show with his unique set of skills.
OK, maybe he does have a better than long shot chance but that doesn’t mean as a rookie 20 year old, right?
I’ve only seen him play one game (other that Penticton) and he wasn’t in the play really at all (not for lack of energy/trying) and then got hurt, seriously enough to end his season.
It was one game and his first pro game but it didn’t change the 99% likelihood that he’ll need real development time.
With sleazy play winning 7 of the last 10 Cups players with the same attributes as Mr.Clattenburg are increasing. Look no further then Frederic who only scored 8 goals last year and then recieves a lifetime contract. I believe the number 1 quality that gets you in the show is skating.
I’ve never said that his top attributes are not positive.
The fact his puck skills are average at the junior level (at least as of last year) likely means he’s not quite ready for the NHL – to me at least.
I may be delusional by thinking this Kid can make the N.H.L. The way I look at it we have no prospects from the Holland regime on the big club. With the new administration in place is it possible the Hockey Gods will gift us a few.
Philp can play wing and so can Lazar. The nice thing is they’re both league minimum salary. I’m a big fan of Clattenberg too but he’s probably a year or two away from playing in the NHL.
I like your thinking. I’m also of the mind that the 82-game season is too long when team and players are going to play up to 28 additional games in the part of the season that matters most.
Let injured players (and high-minute, high-performance players) rest and recover. Test drive new players, lines, etc. Don’t fuss regular season achievements, so long as they make the playoffs.
I’m assuming Howard starts PP1 I wonder if they have a total new look with both Leon and Howard as trigger men with Bouchard bomb a threat as well.
I think there is almost no chance that Howard starts PP1 unless there is injury (in addition to Hyman).
That’s why they play the game. I have no idea what the new PP coach has in store for game 1 he probably doesn’t even know himself.
I don’t know what McFarland has in store but I have heard all his media and radio appearances in the market since being hired and don’t see a major ovehaul of PP1 personnel to start.
Don’t worry, the new PP coach definitely has a better idea than you.
You think. I’m just spitballing isn’t that what this forum is about. I myself like putting on the G.M cap for make-believe. Me needing to be spoonfed on every thought or move to be quite drab.
I don’t think that’s too horrible at all, I’d rather Hyman gets full chance at a proper recovery and an ease back in. Wrist injuries are brutal. I’m with you on the bonus of getting a proper look at Tomasek and co. Giving the team added time to gel rather than giving guys a 3-4 game look and casting judgement is beneficial.
Not to be too blasé about it, but it’s a long season. We’ve shown that we can make the playoffs after a slower start in the past.
The start is important but, then again, it isn’t – we’ve seen the last two years that it means so little for this team. Even last season, they won three series as the lower seed and lost as the higher seed.
One additional reason I am hopeful for a good start, record wise, as it doesn’t add pressure to the coach who is likely able to keep a longer leash on the kids.
Oh, also, Stuart Skinner having a good start to the season is VERY important, in my opinion.
Well he may be ready for the season opener or you may get your wish and then some. Wouldn’t surprise me to see him for the opener or miss the season
Missing the season opener doesn’t help cap space for the roster unless he’s out for 21 days and 10 games.
Ya, I don’t think there is any realistic chance he’s out for the season – there has been no indication of anything like that and, at his golf tournament a few weeks ago, it was mentioned the cast was coming off in the next few weeks.
I know there is ligament damage and whatnot but they got it repaired right away and I haven’t hear of any timelines near 10 months.
That’s why you don’t know the timeline because cast is still on. Wont know anything until he’s a month into rehab
But if you watch welcome to wrexham and this is an extreme example the goalie had a dislocated wrist and required almost a calendar year (11 months)
I got roasted for asking for someone that’s had a similar injury what the implications could be.
Maybe he’s completely healed up by camp but I’m thinking not. I’d rather they let him physio it as long as possible and not have him having trouble with it all season because of not waiting. They do seem to think along those lines these days
He was sorely missed in the finals because of the mix of the other wingers, but if they can’t win in the reg season without him there are bigger problems
It’s time for the oldtimers RNH-Hyman to step back and catch there breaths after the toll of reaching the finals back to back. Savoie-Howard both 21 who are chomping at the bit have a clear runway to show us what they have.
I think that Knoblauch needs to run a different training camp this season. I believe that there needs to be a more settled lineup to give them time to gel going into the regular season. We shouldn’t be having auditions at the end of camp like the last few seasons. Thoughts?
I do see Noah Philp very potentially on the waiver wire and the reason, again, Stauffer………….
Like myself, Stauff has been in Philp’s corner the entire time (for me, not the entire time but once I got eyes on him as a rookie pro).
Lately, since the Lazar signing, Stauff doesn’t even mentioned Philp.
Last night he was chatting with Mark Stuart and talking PK and Stauff asked if someone like Curtis Lazar would be an option on the PK – he didn’t even mention Philp.
Here is hoping that Philp has a very strong camp. I would like to see him on this team with a real chance to show what he can do playing 10-12 minutes plus PK2 for 10 games.
Peak Lazar is a good 4C/PK guy – maybe he’s still around, we’ll see.
I think the org is high on Regula’s potential and Stauff said they are keen to develop him (that was a few weeks back that he said that).
I do think there is some waiver risk there but, when one thinks about it, I think he should clear as its tough to see a team being able to keep this player on their NHL roster. I think teams would love him for their AHL team but that’s not an option.
Lets not forget that this not an established NHL player. He’s only played a handful of NHL games, last 3 seasons ago where he played 4 games. Since then, he’s played two full seasons in the AHL and then missed all of last year with an injury.
I think all teams would want/need him to get back to speed in the AHL for a decent stretch given the missed time – a full season.
I mean, if he hadn’t missed last season and was coming off two full AHL seasons and looked on the cusp, yes, waiver risk.
If he was an established NHL d-man who missed a year and could use AHL time but was a clear NHL player, waiver risk.
Is a team claiming this guy to do BOTH (a) analysis of if he’s an NHL player in NHL games AND (b) getting him back up to speed with pro hockey after a year off in the NHL?
I’m not so sure.
Boston might be keen to claim him back. Just as much as teams like free players, teams don’t like losing players for nothing.
Maybe but Boston would have to keep him on their roster……
Speaking of waive babies, there is a chance that Mattias Janmark may enter this conversation.
There are various opinions on Janmark’s impact. I think most would agree that he was quite valuable in the 2024 playoffs but has generally been not far off replacment level in the regular season and didn’t elevate in the 2025 playoffs to the extent of the 2024 playoffs. He very solid in the 2023/24 regular season defensively but was far from a mistake free player this past season.
Some, including me, are of the opinion that he’s over-priced at over $1.4MM (I was of that opinion on the date he signed the contract) and the Oilers seem to have a bunch of players that can do a very similar job (maybe even better) for league min – Noah Philp and Curtis Lazar come to mind.
In any event, I have felt his job is secure as it seems Knob really trusts this player (and that trust never wavered even when his “mistake free game” became not mistake-free this past season/playoffs.
Last night, on Oilers Now, when discussing the PK with Mark Stuart – Stauff brought up Janmark and then said immediately “the Oilers may have to get creative with the cap”.
I think there is a non-zero chance of Janmark on waivers (don’t see a team taking on the contract – its even got a year after this one).
If he wants to I don’t think Bowman would have trouble moving Janmark. Two Cup finals floats all boats
I know they play different positions but at the end of the day I think it would be easier to move Janmark contract over Skinner contract.
I’m not close to convinced a team is going to take on that contract – he’s performance last season (and playoffs) can be provided by a league min player. He’s at least $400K over-capped, likely closer to $600K and has another year after this one.
Janmark clears waivers easily as would Kapanen.
I agree – hence why I don’t think Janmark could be traded.
Both are over-capped and should be league min ($1MM MAX based on “veteran status” but even then).
Agreed he’s too high, but there are teams that can use his experience and attributes and can aborb the extra cap. I also think he’s a better player than most league minimum types. Like the Hawks. He’s overall reliable, has skill and may get more chance to use it, fast and gritty. He’s light hearted and a gamer. They need vets who have been there and a part of a top team to show how you do it
All fair points – I still think he clears with term on his deal.
He’s not as reliable as his reputation among the Oilers coaching staff.