The expectations of two young Oilers wingers will be one of the headlines this fall at the team’s training camp. I wonder what people believe the boxcars will look like for Matt Savoie and Ike Howard? I’m doing my ‘reasonable expectations’ series next month at The Athletic, and have my estimates for both men surrounded.
It’s a little more complicated than the projections for Jordan Eberle and Kailer Yamamoto as they approached their rookie campaigns in the NHL. Why? Both Eberle and Yamamoto were certain to play with skill because the options behind them were mostly poor.
For the 2025-26 team, we can create two skill lines without Savoie and Howard. Coach Kris Knoblauch could run Nuge-McDavid-Hyman and Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Mangiapane, with Trent Frederic or Adam Henrique available should Hyman be unready. I don’t expect that to happen, but when estimating reasonable one should ponder all possible outcomes.
In Eberle’s first 82 NHL games, he scored 21-33-54. In Yamamoto’s first 82 games, he scored 19-27-46. Do we expect that kind of production from Savoie or Howard?
Coach Kris Knoblauch has talked about special teams usage, including power play, for one or both of the new hires. How can we predict offense for these men with the man advantage? I would suggest a very light touch on the brush, giving some colour to the canvas in a ‘preview of coming attractions’ way. Eberle went 4-7-11 as a rookie on the power play, getting 176 minutes. Will Savoie get 176? Howard?
At five-on-five as a rookie, Eberle posted 1.82 points-60 at five-on-five. Considering the quality of the team, that was exceptional. Eberle trailed Ales Hemsky, Dustin Penner and Sam Gagner in the metric.
Yamamoto’s five-on-five points-60 (1.96) through his first three stints in the NHL (57 games) included a brilliant run with Nuge and Leon. Could Savoie get that kind of push? I believe he could. That has to be factored in. I cast about recently for a set of comps and found several that fit, so we can project Savoie well enough to have a little confidence in predicting a 40-point season if he plays with McDavid or Draisaitl for a significant percentage (say over 35) of his 2025-26 season.
Howard has been billed as a first-shot scorer and scored 26 goals in a good college league one year ago. The general manager made a trade to move up the time line for success, and one would assume that means an extra push. Don’t believe me? Ask Todd McLellan about pressure to play Griffin Reinhart and Jesse Puljujarvi when they were unproven. My RE for Howard has him scoring more goals than Savoie, but finishing with fewer points overall. I have him playing less with the Glimmer Twins, but getting a smidge more power-play time.
The issue of course is the wide gap between floor and ceiling. Either of these men, or both, could find chem with McDavid and Draisaitl and fill the net all winter. We’ll see. I suspect Howard has the lowest floor for next season, but he will get a push and that may be all he needs. Savoie’s utility could work against him offensively, if both men show enough to see feature ice time.
I don’t think we can credibly estimate either man’s boxcars for 2025-26 without acknowledging the potential danger for each in regard to the other. Savoie’s success may doom Howard to the minors. Howard’s early emergence may mean Savoie is playing third-line minutes due to his strong outscoring (65 percent with the Condors at even strength, 48.5 percent when he was off the ice) from a year ago. We can guess from here, but let’s be clear: A guess is what it is. I have Savoie on the second line, Howard on the third opening night. Even if that’s the right guess, it might not last the first 20 minutes.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll chat with Jason Gregor about the Elks weekend, and talk Blue Jays at the deadline. Declan Krueger will have his Mamma MMA segment and we hope you can join us noon to 2pm, Sports 1440.
New for The Athletic:Projecting Edmonton Oilers’ opening-night defence pairings, goalies for 2025-26
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6518350/2025/07/28/edmonton-oilers-defence-goalies-2025-26/
I’ve been posting about the d-pairings a bit over the last while and the above it the absolute key for me.
First principles here, the Oilers have four legit left shot D that are going to play nightly. Ekholm regressin/injury aside), there are four locked top 4D plus Kulak as an elite 5D.
One of the left shot D is going to play on the right side. We know from history that Nurse and Ekholm are not options on the right side and the results with Kulak on the right side have been “uneven” over the last year.
On the other hand Jake Walman has, from accounts, had success on the right side prior to the trade and, as Al points out, high end success in a small sample with the Oilers. 8-2 goals and 61% expected goals in 103 minutes is, while not big sample real. I believe they were 2-1 goals and 59% expected in 23 playoff minutes to add.
Lock in Nurse/Walman.
We don’t know what Mattias Ekholm will give us in October – he was all put unplayable awful in the SCF but we know that he was highly limited with the groin. I expect him to be healthy when he plays but he will also be 35 and older players often never get back to peak prior form after substantial injury.
With that said, we clearly default to:
Ekholm/Bouchard
Nurse/Walman
Kulak/Emberson
Stecher.
If Ekholm needs time to get up to speed or is coming down the wrong side of the cliff, there is a logical adjustment and that’s Kulak/Bouchard which is based off of their exceptional playoffs.
Kulak/Bouchard were 7-1 goals and 73% expected goals in 153 playoff minutes – that is HUGE.
Of course, a large part of this is that Bouchard is an elite play driving d-man who can carry any partner these days – he simply drives outscoring with the puck going the right way. He can turn Kulak in to that serviceable 21 minute d-man.
I have time for using:
Kulak/Bouchard
Nurse/Walman
Ekholm/Emberson
Stecher
Emberson will be locked in to 3RD – they will want him on the PK (Stuart spoke about it).
Also, further to my comment on the pairings, Mark Stuart talked about being a fan of analytics and praised the organizational’s analytic department that gave them a ton of information. A ton of data including with respect to which pairings are working (and not) including on the PK.
Truth be told, I’m not sure Paul Coffey really cared what the numbers said. If giving any credence to “the numbers” and result, one cannot not move off Nurse/Kulan (and going Nurse/Walman), for example.
I think Stuart having the deployment will make a difference.
Stauff says he can see a scenario where extensions for Podz, Walman, Ekholm and McDavid are all done this off-season.
I’ll be very hesitant on Ek prior to seeing how he looks coming back from this groin injury – he’ll be 36 starting the season an extension kicks in.
Oh, Knob too for an offseason extension.
I would not consider an Ekholm extension until next March at the earliest to see how he plays this year and no more than 1 year. That should just be the reality of a 36 year old in this league. Of course what they will do is sign him this summer to a 2 year extension.
I agree but Stauff has been intimating about it for a few weeks and mentioned it again tonight.
Presuming it is signed, I sure hope its 2-years max and a material decrease – sure, MAYBE he’ll be worth $6MM plus a year from now, at 36 and 37, but, well, that’s far from a certainty and, prior to seeing him this season, that’s all Oilers’ risk.
Ekholm has been an elite d’man for a long time. Aging will mean he’s a viable second pairing d, and not a first pair.
Perhaps but I’m not sure we know that. See Marc Andre Valsic, for example.
Also, I’m not 100% convinced he recovers 100% mobility after the groin injury and it doesn’t become a recurring thing – that’s speculation but I don’t think its a non-risk.
In any event, I wouldn’t be thrilled with a 3 X $6MM contract for his 36, 37 an 38 years old seasons, for example.
I think bringing up Vlasic in this conversation is a major overreaction. Here’s why:
Ekholm- (this is based on his 14 full seasons played at even strength)
He has had a negative corsi relative to teammates 3 times, the worst was his very first full season at -1.4%.
He has had below a 50% corsi twice, he has averaged 59.13% corsi since arriving in Edmonton with last year being at 60.2%.
Dangerous Fenwick pretty much aligns with these numbers.
The only year in his career that his PDO was crazy was his first 21 games in Edmonton.
Vlasic- (same as above)
In 18 seasons, 14 of them have been negative relative to teammates.
Hasn’t been above 50% corsi since 2016-17 season.
Dangerous Fenwick aligns.
He has had a poor PDO since 2019 but the corsi shows that he is part of the problem.
The more “ifs” you have the more “ifs” are bound to materialize over the course of the season.
As such, to me, the reasonable expectation in terms of crooked numbers is on the low side for Savoie and Howard.
Savoie = 13 goals, 22 assists for 35 points
Howard = 11 goals, 18 assists for 29 points
That seems reasonable and doable.
I expect next to no PP time for both since PP1 plays the first 90 seconds of every power play, and the second unit gets 30 seconds of zone entry and set up time.
I worry by just the pure fact we will talk about Savoie and Howard alot (not a tonne else has changed) and in the same breath fairly or not due to similar auditioning roles ala Austins in the early 10’s.
It makes for easy writing but can set the expectations against each other. The Oilogosphere likes to pile on and in my opinion, Howards a prime candidate to be tarred and feathered. Cocky/confident, defensively suspect at this level according to Curlock. As we’ve seen with Skinner, even if he scores that doesn’t mean he’s safe in Knobs world.
Another problem would be if 1 flourishes and the other flounders, at least early. My expectation is Howard wont be given a long rope since Knobs has no time for lack of defensive buy-in. As with Skinner (although he’s a veteran and would be treated diff), and even with Holloway/Broberg, it can take a long time for a rookie to get another shot with KK.
That’s the price of being a contender at times, looks like they’ve identified it as a weakness in the org tho.
We wait.
OriginalPouzar. Please go start your own blog. You have FAR more to say than even our host.
I’ve suggested it many times.
We don’t mind that he is posting here. Nice to find all of the great observations in one place
OP is welcome always. As I do not know what he wished to do (beyond posting here), I do think it would be wise for him to have a designated spot he can write and people can find him
The first few comments I agree, then it gets frustrating as he goes on to the point of talking louder and longer than everyone else.
I’m just glad someone has something to say considering it’s July 28.
OP`s biggest strength is his knowledge of whats happening in Bakersfield. I agree with the prior opinion…he should limit his postings here….
I try to be open minded with OP, however when he thinks we should be interested in how many hours he spend on the treadmill, where he spends his holidays, or how much sleep he got last night after saving the government of Croatia I draw the line.
OP you need a different support group.
You do know that OP is not required reading.
You are free to skip over his posts and let those of us who enjoy them enjoy them.
I agree with you but it is a lot of scrolling.
I checked out a long time ago, but I’ll stick my neck out. OP/Ira may be borderline obsessive, but his every single post is well informed. What exactly do you contribute? OP is one of the main reasons I still read this comment section. If his post volume offends you, why not just, uh, not read them?
I have contributed over the course of years now. I come here to read Lowetides thoughts and participate if it’s relevant or I have something to add. When yesterday’s comments are 40% OP. Bit much.
I’m going to put more pressure on this team to have a decent start.. not get behind… avoid whipping the old horses to get back in the race and giving some space for the youth to get at bats.. focusing more on 5×5 if they are playing in the top 6. our bottom 6 feels pretty decent.
Raising Skinner’s value ahead of extension seem like a tall order considering Dostal – We won’t be trading Skinner if he meets that value. Though I have to think someone see’s his potential.
For me, a good start is important in a couple of facets:
1) it likely means a good start for Skinner which is important just to quiet some of the excess noise out there on him – its so loud.
2) takes some pressure off the coach which likely allows him to give more rope to the likes of Howard/Savoie to work through inconsistencies and play through mistakes.
Don’t think 97 and co are planning on a good start with the intention of making it easier for the young guys. If you aren’t pulling the rope early, then the youth just may just not be ready since it wont get any easier.
I expect what we see at the start of the year and 10 minutes after the first period will change when Howard coughs up a puck, Emberson gets flown by and Stu forgets the season started let alone end of season.
Then Savoie will go end to end with Leo and the fans will remember thats just how the Oilers play hockey.
— I don’t realize that the Oilers were the oldest roster age last year
— it will be an interesting year for sure.
— Maybe this is the year they go McD Drai Nuge on three lines and mix and match
— The Oil are in the “they will make payoffs for sure unless season injury to multiple stars” phase
— Jays haven’t won anything but they have a bunch of players playing at the upper end of their expected outcome. That’s what Oil need.
Don’t worry, they’re still 2nd oldest by ice time:
https://leftwinglock.com/teams/biometrics/
Would think Stankoven’s 38P would be a higher end expectation for Savoie. Both undersized WHL alumnis. Stankoven a more productive rookie AHL season, strong 30+ games in NHL in Draft+3.
Played close to 2 PP mins/game in both Dallas & Carolina.
I think Howard-Savoie finish in-between Kurri 32 Anderson 30 and Hall 22 Eberle18. I can’t wait to see Howard explode out of the gate. These two have as much chance of being a stud as a dud. This will be our first real tell of the organization as a whole. If they hit on 2 top 6 ELCers throw in a fresh Frederic 16-19 goals and wild card Tomasek 10 goals. This is going to be a exciting season with the condensed schedule young legs should benefit us.
Hall was #1 OV. Howard/Savoie were not.
Howard and Savoie 2 years older then Hall both have previously played with men not boys. Also Howard and Savoie both have better cover with linemates. Hall had pressure to drive his line whereas Savoie and Howard need to simply do what they are really good at without the onus having to be the man. Both players are walking into a dream scenario that is not above their heads.
I would suggest there is a large area being stud and dud and its probably reasonable to project both somewhere within that area.
I have Howard scoring more than Savoie as I believe he gets more of a offensive push than Savoie who will be counted on the PK and save play.
He may get more of an offensive push but Savoie has just as high an offensive ceiling, has produced at the pro level against men and could get more consistent ice, and ice in the top 6, if he does show to have a more responsible game.
It’ll be very interesting to see how these two are deployed in camp, early in the season and as the season goes on – and how they progress and play.
I do not expect Savoie or Howard to have impressive counting numbers.
Unless the coaching staff changes up PP deployment significantly, which seems unlikely, both players will see depressed scoring totals.
I think 27-32 points and 12-15 goals for Savoie and Howard is reasonable.
Agreed. I’m more concerned that they learn to play in the league and can contribute on a high end team. The skill will eventually bring points. But in the mean time, and in between time, having high skill guys in the top 6 can pay dividends because they are more likely to cash chances when they come. Too many formers couldn’t score when it counted consistently, not enough finish. Also not enough drive to score, which I think the better offensive players have a lot of
Agree 100% that its tough to project actual numbers/box-cars for these guys as their is such a wide range of deployment and roles, in particular for Savoie.
I mean, I can see Savoie’s strong 2-way game keeping him out of the top 6 as he can play a very effective 3RW on a strong skilled 3rd line. At the same time, I can see the coach trusting him and keeping his ice higher and maybe playing him in the top 6 based off that 2-way game.
For Howard, maybe he just instantly gels with McDavid and runs with 1LW. He’s not a great defensive player but, from accounts, he’s got the commitment to get better and, hopefully, will learn from mistakes and not get moved down the lineup early.
At the same time, i could see him struggle, in particular during the grind of the year, and see some nights in the press box or, worse, with Janmark and Kapanen, for example.
I definitely agree on the lower floor for Howard – it’s likely my Condors and Savoie bias but its tough for me to see Savoie “fail”.
Ike and Savoie would not be an easy projection to make. The difference btw playing with 97 or 29 and not is night and day. Best to say 35-40 each and hope they surprise 🙂
I wonder if the Oilers just go 97/29 together for most of the year. The regular season games dont matter so why not let them… also where does Nuge land? I saw a smart player in Frederick but not one with much finishing ability. The team will be good but its hard to project other than 130 for McDavid and 110 for Drai.
I don’t imagine they look to play McDavid and Drai together as a default.
Knob has expressed his opinion that he does think the team is better overall and over the season when they play apart mostly.
I think Nuge will play plenty or 1LW as well as some 3C.
I think Frederic has shown to be a better finished/goal scorer than we was this past season as an Oiler – when you can’t skate as you normally can, can’t trust your pivots, etc., etc., the game overall gets harder.
Its really tough to project lines as so many players can join McDavid and Drai in the top 6:
Hyman
Nuge
Savoie
Howard
Mangiapane
Podz
Frederic
Henrique (as a winger – this has been thrown out by Bowman)
Maybe even Tomasek for all we know (and Kap played there in the playoffs).
Unfortunately, I’d have to take the under with respect to McD getting 130 points. Hope I’m wrong.
Btw, greetings from the Yukon, home of Gavin McKenna, who is likely the shiny new toy Mike Grier is hoping to land next year.
My opinion on these two players and reasonable projection for impact this season, it’s well known in this community but this is a fun conversation to discuss.
Nothing is a lock but it’s likely both are ready for everyday NHL roles – these are both high pedigree, high skilled players that have arrows up post-draft and are 21.
For me, I am more sure of Savoie’s ability to impact. This is based on watching him play about 50 games in the AHL last year and seeing his development 2-way and how broad his range of skills are.
Savoie worked extremely hard on his “away from the puck” game and it’s become a plus. His backtrack, his defensive zone structure game and his board work. All pluses notwithstanding his height.
Combine that with him playing a full year pro against men and I see a legit 3RW floor for him this season.
I can see his advanced two way game keep him on the 3rd line but I can also see Knob relying on him in the top 6 as the trust grows.
Have you seen Savoie play in person quite a bit ? It’s different through the lens of the camera. I get it – sometimes that’s all we have though.
I have only seen him play live once, when the Condors came to Calgary last November.
I am confident in my analysis of his game based on the (apx) 50 games I watched from my house (plus 4 NHL games, again, from my house).
I hope you are correct.
He’s been right about most players making the step up fron Bakersfield. His insight of the farm team is by far the most comprehensive of any poster on this blog. It’ll be interesting to hear of all players on the farm especially Jarventie-Regula who are close and then long shots like Samanaski-Clattenburg. I really appreciate OP take on the farm team as he spends the time watching Bakersfield games and has more than a levelheaded scouting report on each player.
I appreciate that – its pretty much just amateur opinion mind you.
I was wrong on Deharnais – despite mass impact at the AHL level, I didn’t think he’d have an NHL career.
I do enjoy watching these guys develop
Vincent hit lightning in a bottle right place right time. He’s riding the wave of his play for 1 solid year. This could of happened to so many prospects in every organization. I’m glad Vincent hit jackpots on his contract in Vancouver but let’s face it Vinny is a 8-9 D-Man in most organizations.
I think Savoie will most likely stick with the team all season and if so, I expect 12-15 goals and 30-45 points if he plays 75 games in the top 6. If he gets significant PP time, add 15 points to the upper range.
Howard will likely start on the 3rd line, if he makes the SOR, but if he doesn’t hopefully he climbs in to the top six by mid-season. If he plays 75 games he will score 14-20 goals and 35-50 points.
If he gets significant PP time, add 10 points to the upper range.