I published my Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for 2025-26 today at The Athletic (link is here) and I thought we could do the same thing with the Condors here. I’m not going to post offensive numbers, but rather the depth chart at each position and brief comments on some of the players. Here we go!
GOALTENDERS
Sebastian Cossa has been mentioned as a possible target by the Oilers. We have to remember it’s silly season, a time when blue sky conjecture becomes mainstream rumour, but I like the idea. The Condors have a veteran stopper in Matt Tomkins, who played to a .907 save percentage in 28 AHL games one year ago. He should see the bulk of the starts until one of the youngsters (Samuel Jonsson, Connor Ungar and Nathan Day) emerges. My money is on Jonsson, who I have as the No. 3 prospect in the system. Brett Brochu is off to Germany. He’s a good goalie. The size bias is real.
Left Defense
Atro Leppanen is a wildcard who I see playing some NHL games this season. His outrageous offense in Liiga last season should transfer well to the AHL level. I anticipate big boxcars for the Condors. Cam Dineen and Riley Stillman are AHL veterans, players who will be counted on to both help the team win and mentor youth. If you look back at minor-league history, these men get very little credit for helping develop the NHL blue we see for years and years. Call them the Connie Madigan All-Stars. Damien Carfagna is a player whose numbers and scouting reports suggest will push for playing time this season in Bakersfield. Mobile, can make plays, I have him as the top LH defenseman in the system at this time (No. 7 overall). Mats Lindgren is a recent AHL signing and he’s young and good enough to pass some of these names in the season to come.
Right Defense
I have Alec Regula playing in Edmonton and Bakersfield this season. When he’s wearing Condors threads, expect a feature role and solid boxcars. I think he’s probably under the radar for Oilers fans but if he’s healthy Regula will push for NHL time. Beau Akey is the feature prospect (I have him No. 5 and the top defenseman in the system) and his skating will blow your mind. He is a perfect fit for the organization’s defensive template (get the puck, outlet under control) and could surprise in his first pro season. Josh Brown and Luke Prokop are big, shutdown defenders who play with a rugged edge. The Condors need players with bite, and those two men should see plenty of even strength and PK time.
Center
The Oilers probably have a shuttle for some of the season, with Noah Philp, Mattias Janmark and David Tomasek possible Condors pivots for a time in 2025-26. Among men who we consider season-long Bakersfield farmhands, James Hamblin will play a feature role in all game states. Josh Samanski and Jayden Grubbe will be the big men in the middle on depth lines. I’ll caution in projecting Samanski into a feature role, he’s going to have a period of adjustment that might last the entire season. Among AHL hands, Matt Copponi may land on the wing but has plus offensive numbers coming out of college and those guys are going to play. Rem Pitlick is more likely to land as a center on the Condors, and he is a quality AHL player. Strong addition by management.
Left Wing
Roby Jarventie is the feature player at this position, and I do see him getting some NHL games this season. Of all the prospects in Bakersfield this year, Jarventie, Akey and Jonsson are the three who have the most NHL potential. He’s very good. Max Jones should have a good season as a middle-six LW, he can score goals at an impressive level in the AHL. Viljami Marjala is an intriguing player, but I can’t project him into a feature role until we see what he brings. The Liiga numbers suggest he’ll play behind Jarventie but ahead of Jones on the Bakersfield depth chart. Connor Clattenburg and Brady Stonehouse will compete for depth minutes, Clattenburg’s rugged style should get him extra minutes once he gets established in the AHL. I’ll list Rhett Pitlick here but he could play either wing and he will play because he’s a talented player. A fine AHL signing. Ethan Keppen and Matt Brown are also AHL contracts and face steep compeition at this position.
Right Wing
Quinn Hutson is the feature RW on this roster to my eye, assuming Jarventie plays the other wing. Hutson’s college scoring numbers, and the fact he spiked in his final season, suggests to me the Oilers might have a real one here. We’ll see. Matvey Petrov has so much talent he could dominate the position and not one human should be surprised. I love his talent. This is his year to stand and deliver. James Stefan was a strong junior scorer but hasn’t been able to get it done in pro. He’ll get run over if he can’t do it this season, there’s so much talent on this roster. I’ll list Matt Copponi here as well, for me his talent should see him emerge from the pack. Seth Griffith is on an AHL deal but he’ll be at the top of the depth chart to start the season. If he’s a depth player/healthy scratch in spring, it will be a sign of a successful prospect winter. Trevor Janicke can play center or wing, but he’s in tough on this list.
On the Lowdown today, our feature guest will be Kevin McCurdy and we’ll talk about reasonable expectations for the Oilers. We’ll also chat Riverhawks, Stingers, Jays and Elks. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440!
Oilers reasonable expectations for 2025-26, team and individual:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6549033/2025/08/13/edmonton-oilers-reasonable-expectations-2025/
Josh Leivo seems to have found his game. 49 for Ufa last year and now they can’t afford him.
Was always a blog favorite. Either he figured the game out or ‘the gas’ works just right for him.
Im going to go with Max Jones as the surprise this camp.
His first game with the Oilers he showed he possesses everything he needs to succeed. Playing that game he easily holds down a spot. History says he cant put it all together and keep it together.
But I’ll stick with Jones anyway, just cause.
I had him at No. 29 in his draft year, Brock Otten called him a throwback power forward. I always liked him.
He had an absolute ton of opportunities to be who they needed, when they needed it, last year.
Could not step up. And it wasn’t a question of talent – but of effort and focus. Wasn’t there.
Too bad as it would have been very helpful.
I think Clattenburg is in the same mould as Jones. Big fast tough, but aren’t great with the puck. I hope CC puts in the work, Jones too but he might be past that at this point. I would love a winger or two like that again
For sure, I’m rooting for him to turn the corner, seize the opportunity and make a difference in Edmonton..
This paints a very positive outlook for the Condors this season. Thanks LT
I wound have to say it looks like a promising group of Condors. I have no idea how it fairs with all the other farm affiliates of the other NHL teams. I just wish them all the best.
With respect to no real left shot D prospects (Munzenburger, sigh), last night Stauff was again on the re-signing Ekholm train.
Keeps talking about recency bias and he was playing hurt. Stauff is right but he ignores the age factor and the chance that he may be less than 100% mobility much of the time.
Stauff also said he could foresee them signing all of Walman, Ekholm and Kulak.
He also said Kulak may want to test the market as he could get $4MM out there and the Oilers can’t do that. I think he could get closer to $5MM and am glad that, as much as I like Kulak, team likely lets him walk as opposed to overpaying their cap structure.
Of note, Stauff was on a trip with Kulak’s agent recently so, while he didn’t say this yesterday, intel on potentially testing thr market due to value may be more than just his personal opinion. Might.
Agree on Leppanen – similar to Tomasek, a complete wild card but we know he starts in Bako unless there are early injuries. M
From accounts, his offensive game is legit and NHL level and ready but he’s somewhat of a rover out there. Can Chaulk and McCambridge teach some structure in to his game?
He is pretty much the only left shot D “prospect”.
For me unless Bowman really hit a homer and Lepp translates to a top NHL offensive D, I can’t see a path for him. The reason Forsling found a career and became a very good player as a small D is based on his terrific skating and defensive play, which he’s always had
And that he liked the gym so much he grew an inch or two since he was 18 and gained 25 lbs on his smaller frame 🙂 Those Panthers
Lepp has the skating but to me unless he blows it out of the water offensively, I don’t see it, at least on the Oilers