Hot August Nights

by Lowetide

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meanashell11

I still do not believe that McDavid would sign for anything less than max term. The threat of injury is just too much risk. He knows that even if he signs for 8 years, 4 years from now if there is no Stanley, he can ask for a trade and will get one. His best friend just signed for 8 years starting this season, if he signs for less, he and his agent have made a mistake.

Gordoil

“Many insiders are saying two years, three years, four years, but no insiders are saying eight years. What does that mean?”
I think the fact that no one is saying 8 years, may be the reason it might be what happens.
As Frank Seravalli pointed out if he wants out at any time he can just say so
It will be the last chance for an 8 year deal and a second 100 plus million Deal
I really don’t see any finesse in manipulating years to benefite him or cap

meanashell11

Sorry, agreed above before I read your post!

godot10

Room gets suddenly still and when you’d almost bet
You could hear yourself sweat, he walks in

Eyes black as coal and when he lifts his face
Every ear in the place is on him

… Starting soft and slow like a small earthquake
And when he lets go, half the valley shakes

Reja

We can not allow a Mitch Marner type of return for Connor If he decides not to resign. Mitch Marner was well within his rights to nix any trade once he decided not to resign. It is also the right for the fans to put a Mitch Marner photo on the bottom of their cats litter box. I think when everything is said and done Leon will be my favorite Oiler alltime and I do believe he’ll finish all time in games played for this organization. I’ll be 6 feet under when Leon Coaches and then G.M’s this team after he retires a Oiler.

daniel

The Gretzky sale taught one to expect the unexpected. For most of us it was a complete shock during what still felt like the apex of the greatest team in history.

We are now at what is close to the apex of the most advanced player in history. Regarding the contract, I think I expect the unexpected, which could go any which way.

The team is younger and faster. The additions have skill, but the evidence to indicate that the incoming skill is greater than the skill that left is questionable at best. The players that left were not the reason the Oilers lost the cup. And replacing them, even with improvements, doesn’t guarantee anything.

The core group of McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard, Nurse & Skinner were not good enough for Stanley, especially without Hyman. Is this core good enough to beat the Panthers anytime soon?

Does McDavid want 8 more years of this? Maybe. He is the most determined player I have ever seen.

All of this “best D in the league” talk is a bit silly to me. They did not look as good as the Panthers D. Reads like too much focus on expected goals and puck moving, it’s the kind of analytics Lowetide has taught me to ignore. Puck moving and expected goals are fine things. But for Pete’s sake, stop Marchand when he’s embarrassing you and making you look like Swiss cheese.

Regarding skill, everyone is switching gears to bully hockey. The league is not calling penalties. Skill is fine. But Edmonton lost a lot of grit and determination. They are less of a bully team now than in April. I don’t have faith that small skill will be rewarded by this league.

There are a lot of question marks about this Oilers. Including the goaltending. I don’t know what to expect, but I do expect the unexpected and I know that winning this year will be harder than last.

John Chambers

The Oilers core (including goaltending) is more than good enough to make the playoffs. Overall the team has been built with good depth to navigate the first 82 games.

Whether the Oilers succeed in the playoffs comes down to a few factors:
1) Can any of the wingers emerge to be sure-fire top-6 for the post-season? How high is the ceiling as of spring ‘26 for Howard and Savoie specifically?
2) Similar to the Panthers, can the Oilers add meaningful difference makers at the deadline to gain an edge over the league’s elite?

To your point, which bullies can we look at add as mercenaries for the upcoming battle?

Last edited 1 hour ago by John Chambers
John Chambers

I remember in the summer of ‘97 or ‘98 the contract negotiations between Sather and both Doug Weight and Ryan Smyth were the big news.
Both players ended up signing 2-year deals iirc, Weight’s was just over $2M after he had a 100-point season, with Sather having grinded them down to what the EIG could afford.

Two summers later they went back to the negotiating table and signed contracts at twice the value, by this time over $4M for Weight. A few years later Weight would be traded to St Louis where his salary increased again exponentially to over $8M annually.

This set of contract negotiations felt short-sighted at the time and would prove to be so over the long run. Why wouldn’t you sign your best players for as long as possible, making them feel content and comfortable, thereby enabling the GM to surround them with complimentary talent? Did the EIG really operate with such a short term mandate or with a severe aversion to risk?

Imagine an alternate history where they sign the ‘98 core of Weight, Smyth, Guerin, Joseph, Hamrlik, Mironov, Grier, and Marchand long-term (at ‘98 prices!) and run that group to the middle of the 2000’s.

anonymous

They operated with a lack of money. They would have signed both long term otherwise.

They use to have to do cash calls with 37 owners to operate.

OriginalPouzar

I have never swayed from being 100% confident that McDavid will re-sign this off-season. There hasn’t been a moment when I didn’t think it was a surety that it happen in late August/early Sept – when he’s back in Edmonton after summer activities.

Its not done until its done but I have zero concern.

I have moved off thinking 8 years to a shorter term – all the intel leads us that way.

Something in the $16.5MM range has always been my thought but there is a SMALL part of my brain that says he might not want to take a $2.5MM bump over Leon and maybe he comes in closer to $14MM if he’s signing for 2-4 years? I really doubt it but a small part.

cowboy bill

Losing two years in a row to the Florida Panthers could be a blessing in disguise, Connor probably realizes how important it is to build a stronger team around himself and his budding super star Leon Draisaitl, otherwise they may never fulfill their quest for Stanley.
Many of the Panthers top players are on team friendly contracts for the purpose of forging an NHL dynasty which must sound nasty to Connor & Leon. A small part of my brain also feels the glimmer twins view themselves as equals, a 4x $14M for McDavid isn’t out of the question an 8 year $14M contract would be complete and utter dedication.

Last edited 1 hour ago by cowboy bill
OriginalPouzar

As an aside, I don’t agree with the current narrative that all these Panthers are signing team-friendly discounts and leaving big money on the table.

I understand what Sam Bennett did in the playoffs but he 100% got paid in full for that – $8MM forever for a player with a career high of 51 points. I know he brings other elements (although he’s not that player in the regular season) but he got paid IN FULL.

Marchand had a good playoffs but, again, short sample coming off a big regression year that matches his age. $5.25MM is fine but six years taking him until he’s 43 and that contract has big money throughout, he’s unlikely to fully retire – maybe there is some LTIR at the end but he got PAID IN FULL.

Ekblad’s contract, in my opinion, is about market – I think he’s starting to regress early due to some tough miles on that body – his contract will “be fine” for most of it but I don’t see it as any sort of big discount.

OriginalPouzar

I think we can read the tea leaves by viewing the coaching changes of summer as a recognition that the staff was stubborn on some things. Why the outlets were brilliant in the first three rounds and failed miserably in the final one is surely part of the story. The lack of adjustment and unusual deployment against the Panthers should also be the story, but I’m not privy to what is going on and I’m not going to pretend I am.

I think Paul Coffey did some real good things with the defence and empowered them to “make plays” but, at the same time, from my 1000 foot view, Coffey was more of a motivator than a coach. Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure his experience was beneficial and he taught the group things but I think:

1) he expected every d-man to do certain things that may have come easy to him but weren’t in the skill-set of everyone – not every d-man can skate or move the puck out of danger with no time like he could; and

2) he deployed them based on a premise of what he thought should work without regard to what was actually working, and not working – sometimes.

The Nurse/Kulak pairing, and not moving off it, despite eye test and number results was werid. Not moving off Ekholm/Bouchard despite Ekholm clearly not being able to handle that responsibility was weird.

Not using the data presented (Nurse/Walman and Kulak/Bouchard killing it) and moving to pairings that were having success, at least via goal share (and underlying possession type data).

I think Mark Stuart (who has talked about the great data that Parkatti present) could have a real impact.

cowboy bill

I don’t think that Coffey’s influence on the Oiler defense is lost, I sure a happy medium will be found in his absence.

anonymous

It has to be 8 years or it just gets harder to manage the roster and makes winning increasingly harder every year.

I don’t think you can say that he’s completely committed to winning here unless he does this.

Mathews aside, every franchise player does this.

anonymous

I don’t blame McDavid a bit if he lacks confidence in the organization. I also don’t think signing an 8 year deal takes away any power he has.

If he asks out, they will grant his wish and he’s even more valuable to other teams with years left on his deal.

cowboy bill

If McDavid feel a lack of confidence in the organization, he could probably sign with the Panthers. If you can’t beat them than join them. But I don’t think this would ever cross his mind. The Panthers are going down, down, down.

rev.hans

I enjoy the sentiment. But please, explain.

godot10

It does NOT have to be eight years. It would be a foolish hill to die on.

The problem is never what you pay your best player(s). The problem is what you pay the players who are NOT your best player(s).

OriginalPouzar

The salary cap changed everything, and the Edmonton franchise is one of the richest in the league.

For the longest time, there was no salary cap but the Oilers were a poor team that couldn’t compete salary wise with the rich teams.

Of course, right around the time the Oilers became a rich team under new ownership, boom, salary cap to level the playing field.

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