As the summer moves along, it’s a good idea to go back and look at the season just witnessed. As we drift from the scene of the crime, sometimes speculation and verbal move our opinions away from the flaming math of the season.
Here’s the PuckIQ versus elites for Edmonton defensemen after the 2019-20 campaign:
Adam Larsson played 34 percent of his five on five time (287 minutes, he was injured during the season) and the Oilers had a 47 percent Dangerous Fenwick share. That was the best number among regular Oilers defensemen relative to teammates for the season.
Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played the most actual minutes versus elites and were above or average compared to their fellow defensemen. Let’s look at last year, via Puck IQ:
The Oilers have a fine defensive group now, and it’s reflected here. Evan Bouchard’s numbers are all exceptional, but he still gets underrated by many. Mattias Ekholm has been a key play since he arrived, and I believe the Oilers should sign him.
Darnell Nurse is playing less versus elites than he did in 2019-20, and getting about the same results relative to his teammates. Jake Walman’s numbers above are reflecting a small sample size, I’m convinced Nurse-Walman is the truth and the light.
The reason I’m writing this today is Brett Kulak. Lots of talk about his future with the team, and it’s worth noting his successful time versus elites a year ago. He played less versus elites was than Bouchard, but about the same as Ekholm and Nurse. I get that Ekholm and Walman should be the priority signings on defense, but math is at the bar speaking words of wisdom about Brett Kulak. Let it be.
On the Lowdown today, it’s the roundtable with Declan Krueger and Donovan Paulson. Absolute verbal chaos, the equivalent of hyenas in front of microphones and I’m the zebra. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440.
Im looking forward to watching the team this year. Last year over the summer we stocked up on older slower and softer players that had a number of folks on the back nine of their careers .
I thought we were not any where near as good as the previous years version and I think our age and lack off speed was exposed in the SCF. IMO you don’t beat Florida with older soft guys that cant keep up.
The year before we were closer to the brass ring because we were younger tougher and most important faster .
Speed is how you beat Florida and this years version might just have the horses to do that. You cant intimidate and goon someone you can’t catch .
Looking forward to watching what could be a team of greyhounds this year and how they will stack up against the opposition both in the Pacific division and the rest of the League.
I wouldn’t sign Ekholm until after next playoffs. He says his family wants to be in Edmonton. Not doing that doesn’t mean he would leave. They have to see what happens this season with his groin and his play. He’s such a big guy that any loss of mobility is not good, we saw what that looks like. And I hope Stuart puts the juice master away for D pairs. Ekholm especially injured shouldn’t have been playing RD at all
Locking in an older player who has had multiple issues with that injury seems to me like asking for another cap anchor. He’s been their best D, but there are signs his body may not be able to take it anymore, at least at a high level of play. It’s not like he won’t get a contract somewhere if he wants one
Maybe Walman can handle RD, but if it doesn’t work out they don’t have enough depth at RD unless Regula can step in at a high level, which isn’t likely. I like Stech and Emberson, but they are a poor match with Kulak because they aren’t heavy players, and not really physical. Emberson tries but takes far more than he gives. Kulak is mobile and can pass pretty well, but I think he has problems with the aggressive and physical forwards, especially around the net. He doesn’t box out well, and they need to be better as a group at that
If they are keeping Kulak he needs a solid tough partner that can clear the net and punish players. Zito has reworked their D into a puck mover and a big partner on each pair, and outside of Forsling the puck mover is also big. Forsling Ekblad, Mikkola Jones, Kulikov Petry. Their bottom pair makes 1.925, they are loaded in the top 9. Turtle must be taking the season off as they are at 22 and 3.725 over the cap
I was looking into the Panthers system and came across this
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/other/how-the-florida-panthers-have-become-a-playoff-powerhouse/ar-AA1G5ViU
Interesting comments from their players and other guys. It’s mentioned that they make Bob’s job easier by ‘not screening him’, taking the pass away and giving him the shooter, like it’s supposed to be. He knows what they are going to do in front of him, so he can play as well as he’s able to
This is a change the Oilers need to make. This is my concern with getting too many puck movers that aren’t solid positional D, and in perhaps not having enough bite. I think every D should be able to skate well enough and make a good pass, it’s the NHL. But the details that seem to always fall apart are the basics
Don’t let anyone have an easy path to your net, and don’t let them stay there without any opposition. Make them earn it and make it unpleasant. Don’t screen your goalie. Don’t deflect pucks into your own net. I fear it might be coaching, the system, like when we found out that they were told to go glass and out before Coffey arrived. Really?
Maybe it’s the players not executing. Certainly the forwards need to give more support and do it consistently, especially against aggressive forechecking teams. If you read the article above, Maurice asks simple things, that we don’t see Oilers forwards do well enough. He says if your not on the puck your above the puck. And they focus on winning battles
If they are going to beat Florida, or Carolina who also plays a high tempo game, or even Tampa if they revive, they have to be at least as good as their opponent in this. We see far too many lost battles and being on the wrong side of the puck, leading to breaks and easy goals against. Sometimes risky plays that are poor puck management, impatience. MacT says they are one of the most impatient teams he has seen. If they can get better at the fundamentals, then their talent can be the difference. The 80’s team didn’t win until they took the defensive game seriously. And actually had a defensive structure, which they didn’t early on. Same as it has always been, the team that executes better in playoffs in the hardest games wins
This reads correct to me. Sometimes we use words like “soft” for the Oilers or Oilers defence and it can be misinterpreted. It means as above, they do not battle to box out or protect the house.
And it seems to be coached. Their plan is to stick check, find the puck and move it up as quickly as possible. And it works. Works much of the time, but it can be exploited and is exploited in the playoffs. So much is overcome by Connor and Leon you may think the tactic is working when its simply higher skill overcoming the weakness.
I don’t love it. Can you do both? Get engaged, protect the net and also steal the puck and move it up?
To me, coaching the Oilers should be like coaching two different teams. Your fast break lines and pairings, and your battlers who focus on simply refusing to get beat at any point or situation on the ice.
A good example of allowing players and sticks in lanes was In 2024 playoff run, Vancouver came close just by exploiting the front of the net and loose sticks. Skinner seen very few clear pucks.
As Oilers are built right now, Im not sure they close this gap for 25/26. It will be interesting to see if the basic game plan remains the same.
Sometimes the narrative the McDavid and Drai are dragging and underwhelming team is just not correct.
I mean, the Oilers were 23-14 goals during the playoffs when both McDavid and Drai were off the ice (with McDavid/Drai at 52% goal share together and and at 46% and 47% solo without the other).
Good points, but I only look at the finals. Given the last two years
Its likely even worse in the SCF, I mean McDavid was AWFUL in the finals – he got some points but was primarily responsible for at least 4 against.
SCF at 5 on 5:
McDavid: 3-8 goals
Drai: 4-9 goals
Bouchard: 5-6 goals
Only two positive:
Janmark: 3-1 goals
Podz: 4-3 goals
I agree. Credit is given for many things but as I see it most of the success came from Connor Leo and Bouch setting all time playoff records. Couldn’t last time and went out too easy
From what I recall, all the most backbreaking goals in the SCF were scored off the rush. How many breakaways did Marchand get? We made them look like the skill team.
This is what I was thinking. The critical mistakes are what sinks them. They do it more than the other team. It’s also reg season against top teams. Details matter
Keeping Kulak should also be an objective as long as his demands are reasonable. He is a very good defenseman that can easily slide up the lineup. As soon as we let him go we start complaining why the 3rd pair is a black hole and spend the next decade wondering why in the world they would let him walk
I do not sign Ekholm before March, maybe February, so that I have a strong sense of where his game is at as a 35 year old coming back from injury. And then, I only sign him for one year at a time.
Kulak I only sign to a contract that makes sense for someone who plays significant minutes on the third pair and it has to be low term.
Signing Walman is priority.
What would Oilers give up get Fabian Lysell from Boston?
If the Bruins are looking to peddle the kid off and drinking straight gin, Lysell & Dipietro for Janmark & Kapanen or maybe Tomasek would be the ticket.
Chances of it happening? Slim and none, and Slim is skipping town.
Why would Boston do this?
Damn! I LOVE the verbal chaos. Cannot wait.
How about calling out the best albums with a blue cover ? Mine is Megadeth ‘Rust in Peace’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5o8Daw1ZsY
Joni Mitchell’s Blue, Megadeth goes home devastated.
we must not forget Kinda Blue, Miles Davis
I’ll see your Joni Mitchell’s “Blue” and raise you one Who’s “Tommy.”
Great album but I’d go with Nirvana’s Nevermind.
Haha that’s awesome. Mustaine gets humbled !!
Who’s Next
Brothers in Arms, Dire Straits
Blue Monday 12-inch single
Willie Nelson “Stardust”
— when looking back at the season I feel the most glaring result (and one that has not been examined much) was Conner being 20 points behind the leader.
— sure he missed a few more games. Conner has to be the “best” player in the NHL in order for Edmonton to win IMO
— assuming full health a 100 point season from him isn’t good enough IMO.
— If we have already seen peak McD and 100 points is max we are in tough to win a cup IMO
— while I don’t believe we have seen peak McD it’s possible: he won’t age well in NHL IMO as speed leaves. Hall is a good proxy : gradually diminishing as his speed advantage erodes
A difference is that while Hall may have had straight ahead speed, he isn’t a great technical skater. Remember him bulldozing D on entries, or getting hammered on the boards? Lucic as an Oiler was one of the fastest skaters. It’s just he couldn’t accelerate quickly or turn
Connor’s skating stands alone in things that players do most, which isn’t straight ahead races that often
The key to CMD’s play isn’t staight ahead speed per se, it is his speed WITH the puck, the hand and foot speed in manouvreing, and his speed in reading the ice. Hockey IQ should not diminish, and any fall of in hand speed, close quarters foot speed(nimbleness and edgework) should be much less than any falloff in outright straight ahead speed. The one area he might adjust in years ahead is his reliance in his speed with the puck on his stick, although when it comes to thatit is a bigger gap between him and the field than that using only straight ahead speed in general. IMHO I suspect he will age well!
I think he will if he stays healthy. He will have to use his line mates more, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing if Stan gets him some players
I have to disagree with this point. I think McDavid’s skating (in addition to hockey brain) will allow him to age better than most anyone else. Look at Marleau, Gartner, etc. heck even Chimera who seemed like they could play forever because they could always keep up even as the game got faster as a whole.
With Hall I think it was his injuries that have impacted his speed and not a general degradation of it on its own. While this is possible with McDavid, barring injuries I’d except him to have a speed advantage over most in the game until the day he decides to retire.
— we will see. McD is a different beast than the gretz Lemieux or Crosby (the three greatest I’ve seen)
— Maybe his game evolves true. But those three their calling card wasn’t blazing speed.
— It’s akin to Tiger : he was just much longer than anyone else (and had awesome tool kit)
— Just as Tigers length advantage receded so will McD’s as his speed diminishes.
— Doesn’t mean he can’t be an excellent player for a long time (like Marleau gartner etc) But I think it’s not appreciating just how incredible his speed advantage.
— He has to be the best though for the Oil to win IMO.
— Maybe some iteration in the fall season of his career he can win on a team set up another way…
No matter how good McDavid is, they cannot win with him alone. This is proven.
He can be neutralized in fair and unfair ways.
The rest of the team must win.
You put too much on McDavid. He throws everything he’s got into the game. You only need defence, interference specialists to slow him down. They are not better than him, but they interrupt, interfere, etc.
You seen this with your own eyes.
Then say McDavid didn’t get it done.
Gartner had a better shot than McDavid and used his speed for tons of breakaways aka Bure. McDavid needs to introduce a new wrinkle in his game as the playbook is obviously out on how to defend him.
Comparing Hall and McDavid doesn’t seem right. Yes speed is his biggest weapon but his other tools are well beyond what Hall brought to the table. McDavid should take a page from Leon’s game and learn when to slow the game down.
I can’t say how McDavid will age, but I agree with your point that last season he wasn’t good enough for the Oilers to win it all. 26 goals is not close. No reason that 40 shouldn’t almost be automatic. 50 should be his target
No team is winning solely because of one player. Good teams, like the Oilers, have more than one person who can push the river when called upon. Like Draisatl, Hyman, Ekholm in full health, Bouchard when he is “in the zone”, etc. Not just McD.
Agreed but McDavid can be better than he was last year and that helps the team as well
An older slower McD would be exactly like … Mario.
— one of the favourite descriptions I heard about Mario was that “he looks like a cruise ship docking in a port” He was a load that slowed the game down.
— Lemieux was a 6’4 giant 230 pounder. I’ve stood beside McD : he’s not my height, I’m just over 6.
— I don’t see at all how McD might morph into a Lemieux later in his career … Tottlay different style of play
unfortunately we cant keep em all someone needs to to be on the third pair for a few million less
Should Ekholm be prioritized over Kulak?\
Of course, Ek has been the more valuable d-man over the last few years but will he be more valuable than Kulak starting in 2026/27 with Ekholm is 36 and Kulak is 32?
We saw in the SCF what could happen to Ekholm’s game with limited mobility and I think we can expect a drop in his skating at 36 and beyond – sure not to the level that groin injury took him but skating is often first to go.
Kulak is a high end skater and I don’t see a drop off there in the next 3-4 years – I think his game likely stays at the same level.
Now, Kulak probably gets $4.5MM – $5MM on the open market for 4-5 years – I mean, look at what Ceci signed for.
Is he more valuable on that deal that Ekholm will be for $5MM for 2-3 years?
Are those reasonable contract projections?
I wait on both these extensions but get Walman done ASAP.
I was all for a 2 year home town discount for Ekholm but now with the emergence of Walman it makes Ekholm expendable. I would pump and dump Ekholm or straight out trade him as he’s one of the few players that would be desirable. His trade value should at least be on the postive side and with the cap savings we could get a much better Goalie.
Not a bad idea at all. Oiler played fine without him last year. Love what he brought to the team since he arrived, but it may be time to move on
Oilers did play fine without him but imagine having him along with Walman if Ekholm is near top abilities still?
For me, I’m not positive that game is still there at his age and with a groin that I don’t have confidence in (I, from a 1000 foot view with no info on it) but you never know.
Stauff keeps talking about “recency bias” with Ekholm and he’s 100% right.
At the same time, we don’t know if the “recent Ekholm” is here to stay or if there is regression back to what we have had the last few years.
Ekholm is a huge wild card for me. I just don’t know what we are going to see this year, let alone a year plus from now.
I think you are being too dismissive of Ekholm. Wasn’t he just fine before he was injured? Elite players decline slower. An expectation of a solid second pair D is reasonable for him for a couple of years.
Ceci should only have got a PTO at this point in his career. You can’t point to Holland and say that was the market. Ceci’s been replacement value for awhile.
I might be and I acknowledged that right in my post.
Personally, I think I saw some regression in his game prior to injury – he was beat off the rush more than I was used to seeing (to the inside as well). etc.
Elite players often do decline slower – I don’t put Ekholm in that category and, to be honest, he’s the exact type of player that I think can hit the cliff fast. We saw in the playoffs how ineffective he can be when his mobility is limited – skating is often the first to go with age.
In any event, as I’ve said, I don’t know what he will see from Ekholm this coming year, let alone a year from now when he’s 36 and a year later at 37.
There are very few effective top 4 d-men in the NHL over 35.
I just want to wait and see and no rush in to a cap commitment when he don’t need to.
Last season I thought Ryan Lindgren might be a good addition and possibly Kulak being traded for him or this off-season. With the Walman signing coming out of nowhere Kulak is a great 3LD, in fact quite a luxury. Unless there’s an absolute upgrade I would not trade him this season and see how he fairs for the remainder of his contract.
The thing is that Ekholm might only be a great 3LD at this stage of his career. And Kulak might be the better option with Bouchard.
Kulak-Bouchard
Nurse-Walman
Ekholm-Emberson/Stecher/Regula
Regula is going to be a surprise at camp and will push is way onto the team by X-Mas. Just like I called the Jones brothers would play together I’m also calling Bouchard-Regula will hook up like old times.
I’m not sure about Regula surprising at camp as I expect him to show well and I think management does as well.
I am also hopeful it comes to fruition and he bangs that door down and earns his call-up.
I don’t see the rightie/rightie pairing with Bouchard even if they played together in junior.
You have to have Faith I do believe the Hockey Gods owe us a Forsling as it’s been forever since a top 4 D fell into our laps.
I am about as optimistic an Oilers fan as I know but even I don’t expect, 30G from Howard, Savoie being a young Patrice Bergeron 2-way stud, 25G from Frederic, 15G from Tomasek, Regula and Jarventie both beign middle of the lineup players by December, etc., etc.
I mean, not everything is going to break as it seems you predict, right?
This is silly
Agree.
The default it back to Ekholm/Bouchard and that is definite warranted. For all we know, Ekholm is back to where he was a year ago (which, for me, showed some slight decline, getting beat more off the rush, but still a top pairing d-man with Bouchard).
At the same time, if Ekholm is showing real regression, bit it age, injury or both, then Kulak/Bouchard is something to explore based off of playoffs alone:
152 minutes, 7-1 goals and 61% expected goals – against playoff teams.
Of course, much of that is likely Bouchard and him floating all boats on the back-end but, if Ekholm is regressing in real time then:
Kulak/Bouchard
Nurse/Walman
Ekholm/Emberson
Stech
Can’t overpay Ekholm going forward for that role though.
No doubt he’s been a key piece, an integral piece.
I would note that the Oilers made it to the SCF (and rolled through three rounds after the first two games) without Ekholm.
Little doubt he will be less of a key piece going forward. 35 heading in to this season and coming off a significant groin injury (and with a growing history of groin issues).
He would start his next contract at 36 years old – I’m not saying “don’t sign him”, I’m saying there is no need to rush and the next contract, if there is one, needs to reflect a reducing role due to reduced abilities.
It has to be a short term low cap or bubye.
Kulak is a good player, very good as 3 LD. Looking at a few other teams, the Oilers are spending more as a percentage of the cap on D than Florida or Carolina. As things change I don’t see how they can keep doing that. The goalie share probably goes up as does forward when Connor’s deal kicks in
It makes me think that you can have a puck moving D, but if the forwards aren’t good enough as a group (both ways) it isn’t enough
The problem is the amount of salary they are paying Nurse relative to his value. The potential problem is what they may pay to extend an aging and recently injured Ekholm. Kulak and Walman are very good investments.
Those are two big problems! The first is manifest, and the second is potential if not looming. I don’t envy managers having to move or walk away from good people because dollars don’t work – but, I do admire those who muster the tact and foresight to do it effectively (in personal and financial terms).
Looch lives. on PTO w STL.