Inside Champion

by Lowetide

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daniel

Cap hell, according to David Staples and The Cult of Hockey podcast:


The average Stanley Cup winning team has paid 40% of their cap dollars to their top four players. So last year, in the last few years…the Oilers have been around 41, 42%… And they’ve made the Stanley Cup finals two years in a row. 

This year, with the raise to Draisaitl and the raise to Bouchard, they’re paying 48% of their cap to their top four players: McDavid, Dreisaitl, Bouchard and Nurse. So, this puts them in uncharted territory in terms of winning the Stanley Cup.” …

“They’re going to need Howard and Savoie and other players at the bottom end of the cap to really come through and to be top nine, if not top six forwards in the NHL, and decent ones… and maybe Tomasek to come through as well…

Scungilli Slushy

I think that the Oilers should try to play more the way the Panthers do. It’s the best counter to them, and it’s effective in playoffs which is the most important thing. By seriously disrupting the other teams system, goals suppression happens and broken plays, which should be right up the Oilers’ alley

There are injuries etc that happen reg season and teams have ups and downs. Both hteams had short off seasons. Some GF/GA numbers:

Reg Season
All Sits GF
Florida 246 15th Goal Diff 23 11th / Oilers 259 11th Goal Diff 24 10th

5v5 GF
Florida 153 22nd Goal Diff 14 10th / Oilers 168 13th Goal Diff -3 18th

All Sits GA
Florida 223 7th / Oilers 235 14th

5v5 GA
Florida 139 4th / Oilers 171 22nd

Playoffs
All Sits GF/GP
Florida 4.09 1st Goal Diff 38 1st / Oilers 3.73 4th Goal Diff 9 2nd

5v5 GF/GP (no ranking)
Florida 2.73 Goal Diff 25 / Oilers 2.36 Goal Diff 10

All Sits GA/GP
Florida 2.43 1st / Oilers 3.32 11th

5v5 GA/GP (no ranking)
Florida 1.65 / Oilers 1.91 (similar to Dallas and Carolina)

The Oilers scored more reg season, but despite improvement over the past were well off in GA. The tables turn in playoffs. The Panthers did have a great deadline, but the Oilers added as well, and their game took a big jump, ours didn’t. The additions for them helped, but that’s not the big part of the story. Goaltending is part of the story, but I think overall team play, which wasn’t strong despite dispatching a some good teams, played a big role in goaltender issues

It’s interesting that the Panther’s offense took off in playoffs. I think it’s because they play like and are built for the post season. A simple plan, with layers of puck support is the way to go. Just stay on the right side of the puck and battle your butt off. The Oilers try hard, it’s not that, I see it as more of a mentality and discipline to not make the big mistake very often

You can riff on that if you cause breakdowns, as they did to us. The Oilers should excel at getting rush plays and odd mans from it. Especially as they find it hard to score against that in a lot of games. Just make it really hard on the other team to attack and wait

To me it has to be done. They got to a game 7, but that was not the way you want to get there, and this time had a harder go. They need to be able to compete against Florida and feel like they have an answer, to keep their heads in things and open opportunity to let more skill come through. It won’t happen by sheer effort, or by trying to dangle or pass through a mob of dedicated defenders (who work to protect the house and not screen their own goalie), at least not often enough

rich tm

Have rewatched some of the final round against Florida and also rewatched some old Winnipeg playoff games from back in the day when Maurice was the coach.

Among the things the Oilers have to be better when they play Florida is doing a better job of getting pucks off the boards and using the middle of the ice to get out of their zone. Maurice coached teams are relentless in the forecheck with the D pinching hard, and forcing turnovers.

In the first 3 rounds of the playoffs, Oiler opponents (for the most part) gave them a lot of clean breakouts, trying to clog the neutral zone to slow down puck entries. Dallas was a little more aggressive but the forwards did a better job supporting the breakouts when needed.

EDIT: Much easier said than done.

Last edited 19 days ago by rich tm
Scungilli Slushy

Agreed. They beat teams that give them space, but have in Connor’s years struggled against heavy pressure and tight checking. It’s not easy but they have to do it. Bowman is changing the roster so he must have an idea of where he’s going

daniel

Have rewatched some of the final round against Florida and also rewatched some old Winnipeg playoff games from back in the day when Maurice was the coach.

The 2021 Maurice team that swept us?

rich tm

That and the 2018 team that beat the President trophy winning Nashville Predators. Same system. It’s just Florida executes better because they’re deeper.

Last edited 19 days ago by rich tm
godot10

The Oilers do NOT have the personnel to play the way the Panthers do. The Oilers can beat pretty much everyone except the Panthers.

The Oilers just have to add dimensions and diversity (optionality) to how they attack the Panthers offensively to reduce the counterattack risk in their attacking game. McDavid has to maintain a larger shooting dimension to his game. He should be aiming to score more goals. Crosby learned to play more and better without the puck and to score more goals. It doesn’t matter against anyone except for the Panthers, but if one needs to do it against the Panthers to win, one has to do it for the other 100 games too.

And they have to reach another level of consistency on team defense, particularly in the high danger area in front of the net.

Scungilli Slushy

Really what the Panthers do is play hard and follow basic hockey like stay above the puck. They have 3 rats on the team and a dirty Euro, but it’s not like they are all like that, it’s smaller part of the game that wouldn’t bother them as much is they felt they were more in the battle and doing better. Old Oilers had to make the same mental adjustment against the Flames

Agreed the Oilers need to make some changes and play the way they will in playoffs all season, no cheating, stick to the plan, even if a game opens up. I remain concerned the coaches may not have the right plan, but maybe the new voices help that

anonymous

Sometimes I feel like no one was watching the final. No team outside the sunshine belt can play like the panthers.

I mean on one sequence the oilers were awarded a phantom penalty and immediately following the same player, Stetcher, was slashed twice, at least once to the face, with the official staring right at him and they proceeded to score seconds later….this shit happens over and over again.

They also had the only obvious too many men penalty ignored. Only time I’ve ever seen this. In overtime to boot.

The Panthers will only get a few calls against meanwhile in game 3? the oilers lost discipline and marched to the box over and over again.

Many examples of this joke.

There’s no game plan for this.

The league know Canadian fans will forget by training camp.

A team from Canada may beat the odds and be so good that they manage to beat the league, refs and the other team but I doubt it.

No chance a team from Canada wins multiple cups. Zilch, zero, nada.

Last edited 19 days ago by anonymous
Chelios is a Dinosaur

This is how I saw the Finals as well. Edmonton was never winning that series and after Game 4 especially, it was over. Beyond the clear bias, the fact that the Panthers were able to bring another level for games 5 and 6 just stink to high heaven. I’ll be a 2025 SCF truther forever.

John Chambers

I’m in Ontario this week. Was having beers last night with some colleagues who are Leaf fans, one of whom audaciously predicted that McDavid would sign in Toronto next summer, or be traded with a year left on his contract because in his heart McDavid wants to win a Stanley Cup in Toronto.

I bet him $100 that McDavid signs in Edmonton prior to Halloween, for at least 3 years.

I cannot wait to collect that C-note from him in person, and pity him because he, like many in Leaf Nation, would genuinely take out a line of credit and pay $100,000 of his own money to have McDavid play for his team.

Reja

Do we see PP 2 get more ice time with a new boss? What are the projected PP1-PP-2 as well as the PK1-PK-2.

OriginalPouzar

PP1 will be exactly as we know it – from the mouths of McFarland and Knob.

Reja

Not if Hyman isn’t ready also Nuge needed to recover.

OriginalPouzar

You asked what is projected and the coaching staff has told us that on PP1.

There is no indication that Nuge or Hyman won’t be ready – they may not be but that would be surprising on Nuge and, with Hyman, within the last few weeks the GM provided no projection of him to miss games.

If Hyman is out, I personally think Mangiapane or Frederic would join.

If Nuge is out, it gets more interesting but probably Mangiapane or Henrique. I know many would want one of the two kids, and it could happen, but I think there may be other options tried first.

Scungilli Slushy

I heard on Gregor I think that McFarland was a part of changing Barkov’s career, especially face offs which he has been strong at since. I hope he brings positive change and that the new skills coach can also up everyone’s game. If Connor’s arms are ok, even he could use some coaching on shooting more, and to the part of the net where the most goals are scored (it’s not the bottom 2/3, coincidentally Bobrovsky’s strength). And Nuge. And Pod

McFarland says he likes to try new things, which is music. I mean the Oilers greatest feats happened because they did that. There is more offense there to me, but they have to tweak things so it’s better for all forwards. I’ve mentioned Adam Oates not liking how many teams structure their offense, they are too spread out, he feels it hurts normal players, which is most of a team

OriginalPouzar

I heard on Gregor I think that McFarland was a part of changing Barkov’s career, especially face offs which he has been strong at since. 

I hope he gave credit to Stauffer who was on that weeks ago.

Traveller

Not sure he would need to. Gregor had McFarland on his own show for a decent interview the day after McFarland was hired (5 weeks ago).

OriginalPouzar

He did and I don’t believe this was brought up at all.

It was brought up by Stauffer a couple of weeks ago (and made some rounds on social media since Bob brought it to light).

I’m confident that Stauffer uncovered this first.

Reja

With the additions of puck moving Walman and soon to be Regula this team is rounding into Bowman’s vision with speedy forecheckers in Savoie-Mangiapane-Podkolzin-Howard-Frederic.

OriginalPouzar

As far as opportunity for Howard, I have little doubt he will get real opportunity to play with skill on this team if he’s putting in the work to learn the pro game structure, etc. – if he continues to try an poke pucks by the d-men on the defensive half boards, his minutes will be reduced.

I just hope that the coaching staff also gives Matt Savoie the opportunity to earn reps in regular season games in the top 6.

Since the trade, when Knob and Bowman have spoken, we hear about Howards offensive abilities and Savoie’s advanced 2-way game and developing PK game.

I hope Savoie isn’t pigeon-holed on to the third line – his offensive potential is every bit as high as Howard’s (and he’s produced against men in the AHL).

cowboy bill

Savoie’s advanced 2-way game should give him the leg up playing in the top six.
Howard may need to learn how to play the right way on the third line, which is just fine.

Reja

Putting the biscuit in the net beats all. Why has the narrative started already that Howard isn’t a responsible 2 way forward. Looking at his College and Junior careers nobody ever said he was a goal suck or a selfish player.

Reja

I don’t know if Coach K.K is the right Coach to allow growing pains of Howard-Savoie who are both 21 and as far I’m concerned are N.H.L ready. Bowman has a pretty good eye on evaluating new players. I’ll tell you what if Howard doesn’t score at least 20 I’ll donate $200 to your charity of choosing.

Scungilli Slushy

It’s on Bowman to tell the coaches, if Howard and Savoie are ready to contribute, that their mistakes are ok. The more at bats they get, the more likely they can contribute to winning a Cup. The Oilers struggle at times to score, they need more players that can do that, instead of trying to pass the puck into the net, which will not work against Florida and bottom of the net smothering Bob

I would rather watch them learning with their potential, than Janmark scoring little or Kapanen playing a good couple of games and then losing the plot, at 29 YO, and I like both of the latter. Results and outscoring are all that matter at this point

Pretendergast

The players know who belongs and who doesn’t. Drai got to choose his wingers generally and had Podz for that reason even though the offense doesn’t make sense on paper.

If Howard isn’t ready, the top 2 centres will make that clear.

Reja

You are bang on if Howard and Savoie do what they’re told and can put the biscuit in the net the loyalty ends quickly with Nuge. It’s time for Nuge to be the captain of the PK and bottom 6 also Mangiapane name gets rarely mentioned but he’s a gamer who’s going to make his line mates better.

cowboy bill

We don’t know if Howard can play a responsible brand of hockey, which by the way is a requirement for all NHL players. But if you think scoring goals is all there is to winning hockey good for you.

Reja

The days of burying prospects in the AHL are over. You can take your secret Marinade sauce and shove it where the sun doesn’t shine in California.We are going to look back at the 2024 USA men’s Junior team as the greatest collection of players they have ever pruduced by a mile. For me Snuggerud is a comparable to Howard he didn’t look out of place in the playoffs playing top line. Howard and Savoie are Forwards they can easily be sheltered.

Reja

If Howard can’t score then Houston.we have a problem. This is what the scouts are paid for they’re gambling a lot on this player. If he turns into a Brock Boeser type numbers then the wife can start supervising the construction of a guest house and big pool outback. If Howard is a dud then you better start looking at condo’s in downtown Greenville.

OriginalPouzar

To be clear, my post was not to indicate that Howard is a poor defensive player. From accounts, he committed to improving in his time at Michigan and has done exactly that. There is still “cheat” in his game – the play at the defensive blueline I mentioend was not a one-time thing (credit: Bruce Curlock) and it won’t be tolerated by any NHL coach (I wouldn’t think) more than once.

My point was more about Savoie’s advanced 2-way game for a 21 year old rookie

Reja

I want Savoie and Howard playing to their strengths it can easily be done with Connor and Leon as your Centres. I would turn Savoie and Howard loose enough with this 2-1 games save those for the playoffs. In the meantime and in-between time light up the lamp with old time Oiler Hockey.

OriginalPouzar

I agree it should, and it might. I have zero doubt that Savoie will earn the trust of the coaching staff and, yes, that should earn opportunities up the lineup.

I’m not positive the coaching staff doesn’t think of Howard as a more offensive player and Savoie could start with middle six opportunities based on a more diversified skill-set (which he does have).

cowboy bill

Ironically Ike Howard will be wearing #53, Jeff Skinners old number.

OriginalPouzar

Ike Howard has several inside champions currently. Stan Bowman and the pro scouts took some risk in acquiring him, and history tells us that means opportunities will be made available. I’m not talking “clear the decks” deployment that abandons all hope of deploying the strongest possible lineup, but I am saying he will get a long look in preseason.

I guess there is always risk in a trade, for all we know, SOR develops in to a superstar in the NHL with a much better career than Howard.

I think many view this trade as acquiring a placer that is closer to the NHL and with a higher offensive ceiling but a lower floor than SOR – seeing SOR as a can’t miss middle of the lineup NHL player whereas Howard has bust potential.

I personally don’t agree with that assessment as I don’t think that SOR has a “higher floor” than Howard because he plays a more 2-way game at the junior level – plays the game “the right way”.

Don’t get me wrong, I think that SOR will indeed have a very nice NHL career, I don’t think he busts out or becomes a tweener but the “risk” of him doing so is every bit as high as the risk of Issac Howard busting out or becoming a tweener.

Remember when the Oilers acquiring Ryan O’Mara? Touted as a can’t miss 3C and likely future captain of the Oilers – based on a similar junior skill set as Sam O’Reily, right?

Lets not forget, from a high level, defensive commitment is something that a player can develop and be taught – high end offensive skill, while it can be developed, can’t be taught if a player does not have it.

I think both players will be impact NHL players.

cowboy bill

Tampa likes SOR’s two-way game, Oilers want Howard’s scoring. However, he’s still going to play the right way. That could be a conundrum, because Connor & Leon won’t want to play with him if he can’t.

Reja

Tampa was losing Howard they were bent over and and in a vulnerable position. Tampa did a good job of getting a talented player in return.

OriginalPouzar

Tampa was losing Howard until August 2026 and, if they did lost him via free agency, they would have been compensated with a 2nd round draft pick.

I do not believe they were vulnerable at all when making this trade – they had tons of time.

Darth Tu

Interestingly you bring up Frederic there in the LW chat, I kind of had a thought they might try him right wing with McDavid to start the year (at least until Hyman is ready). If that is the case then there’s one less LW hurdle for Ike to jump.

Frederic being an option to displace Nuge/Henrique as a 3C is a great wrinkle too. I love versatility and this roster seems to have it in buckets.

cowboy bill

I’ve heard Howard can play both wings to his credit. If Hyman isn’t ready to start the season, then I could definitely see Mangiapane, who likes to play RW also & Frederic as McDavid’s wing men, one of them may find a home with McDavid & Hyman.

cowboy bill

There certainly is plenty of insolation for young players such as Savoie, Howard, Emberson & Regula to enter the lineup. This club is in a very fortunate position in that regard. The cards aren’t completely dealt. Nuclear deterrents might be a thing of the past; it’s the same old story Edmonton is going to need to be team tough, they need to be a no-nonsense type of team. I just don’t think they’ve addressed this situation enough and that is my only concern.

Scungilli Slushy

There was a time when teams tried to tool themselves to beat the Oilers. The plan they concocted was usually to have good players, but to be tough as well, to have instigators of various kinds, and get the Oilers off their game

It was a good plan, and it worked pretty well, but the Oilers just had too many great players and as a team had more uber competitive types who would do anything to win. MacT said the team thought there were a few other ones that were pretty close to them. As a young fan I didn’t think that, I thought every game was theirs to lose

I think in terms of the Panthers as to what the Oilers need to become, because the Panthers are like those teams of yore battling the Oilers, and in this era have come out on top of the more skilled team. It looks so much like the Oilers playing the Flames in the 80’s, salt in would that the Chief Ass and his sidekick came from the Flames

The Panthers dirty is all up front. Ekblad is a tough player, but he doesn’t seem dirty to me, nor the rest of them. A pretty traditional type of D group, which suits Maurice’s simple system. Simple is good, any knucklehead can execute it, and players don’t have to think, which slows them down. It also allows new players to contribute sooner

The answer to Tkachuk and Bennett, and to Barkov’s euro dirty, is to build a D group that can make their lives miserable. Like the 80’s Oilers, who weren’t a flashy group outside of Coffey and the odd Finn wheeler. They were a tough, mean, nasty bunch, and wildly competitive

Bennett can’t run the goalie at will if he has a harder time going there in the first place. Because they aren’t a good D group at boxing out, the Oiler D being out of position or behind gave Sam the cover to accidentally on purpose do what he does. Having D that can get some hits on the boards while battling, and whatever else they want to do

I like the skill, but there still needs to be balance, and any O zone that is too easy to play in usually ends poorly for the host

OriginalPouzar

From last year’s team (regular season), they’ve lost Corey Perry and added Trent Frederic. I don’t believe they lost any team toughness with Brown, Arvidsson or Skinner or Klingberg.

Scungilli Slushy

Arvi can be a bugger to play against. I didn’t see much of it in Edmonton though

OriginalPouzar

Can be, but wasn’t. Mangiapane can as well….. So can Savoie (at least in the the AHL).

So as far as comparing team toughness to last year’s team in the regular season, I don’t see any drop.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

I smell an actual hockey trade before opening night.

MushedPeas

also catching whiffs

Scungilli Slushy

It will be interesting to see what they do with all of these forwards. The ones I see as certain are Connor Leon Hyman Nuge Mangiapane Podkolzin Frederic Henrique

That leaves Janmark Kapanen Lazar Tomasek Philp Savoie and Howard going after 5 or 6 spots. That leaves one player out if they carry 14 forwards. Stauffer says they also want to have cap space to accumulate for the deadline, I expect Bowman does some things. Camp should be a banger

cowboy bill

If they could add a young Lucic to the lineup, I’d be ecstatic.

godot10

What is Vasily Podkolzin.

Last edited 20 days ago by godot10
Fibonacci

In his 4th pro season, Lucic scored 30 goals and 62 points.

Podkholizin just completed his 4th pro season and in his career has a total of 26 goals and 59 points.

While there are certainly some similarities in playing style, Lucic had significantly superior offensive skills.

Scungilli Slushy

Lucic is also enormous and one of the toughest. Pod doesn’t like fighting but will, and is far smaller. He’s listed at 190 by the Oilers, Lucic is almost 240

Fibonacci

The Lucic comparable just left town.

Evander Kane.

OriginalPouzar

LOL- now this guy posts as if Evander Kane is a big loss.

Of note, Evander Kane played zero regular season games last season.

OriginalPouzar

Tea leaves have Janmark off the roster and I think they probably want to go with 13F.

Scungilli Slushy

Yes Bob has been hinting as you’ve posted for us. I’m not sure what to think about that, but he didn’t have the playoffs he did the year before, makes him expendable I suppose

OriginalPouzar

His recent level of play at a cap hit of OVER $1.4MM and with another year of term – yes, more than expendable.