Several folks in the comments section are discussing the reasons why Edmonton lost to the Florida Panthers in the final. Rugged style, depth, top-heavy cap situation all landed and a few more I’m sure.
I have written my reasons (they are all included in one play!) and I do believe Stan Bowman has addressed these things. If you watch that play over again, all the problems were on full display. Mattias Ekholm wasn’t 100 percent, and he made a poor pass. Evan Bouchard wasn’t 100 percent and he was unable to impact the errant pass. The forwards all abandoned the puck on a jailbreak with Aaron Ekblad and two Panthers lingering at the blue line. I think that’s a coaching decision. Stuart Skinner did not play the shooter well.
All of these things have been addressed. The injured defensemen concern has been eased by retaining the five clear NHL veterans of quality on the roster. I’ll mention Zach Hyman being healthy for the final one year from now as being a positive in this area as well.
The jailbreak by the forwards is about discipline and coaching. If the three forwards (97, 29 and Corey Perry) left the zone on their own, that can’t happen. If it’s a coaching decision, that needs to be fixed (along with abandoning the clean zone exits up the middle at the most critical point in the year).
The injury issue was more devastating because the coaching staff (defense coach) didn’t adjust for injury. Players with injuries that impact skating who were playing on their offside impacted the final, and that shows a lack of recognition that injured players can’t do what they normally can.
There was some bad luck, specifically the Hyman injury and the comedy of errors described on the play above (all five skaters and the goaltender are much better than that play). I like the additional speed and am onboard with building up the spine with 97-29-93-Henrique as the four centers. The defense is getting attention as the best in the business and the club hired a new goalie whisperer and the deadline looms. I think the Oilers can win with the current top-heavy cap and also believe there’s enough toughness on the roster. We’ll see.
On the Lowdown today, our feature guest will be Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation and we’ll talk about PTO’s and early picks for camp surprises. Elks, Jays and more included. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440.
I still feel like Knoblach went to the nuclear option too soon in the playoffs. I think if they got behind, they panicked and went to that right away. But I think their most dominant games are when they didn’t go nuclear. Maybe that’s the chicken and the egg, but rolling their lines more and keeping that sustained speed and getting those two a bit more rest could go a long way to getting to the final in a better position to win. IT also improves the play of the other players when they have a bigger role and can stay in the game more.
I also think the one thing Florida does well is that they don’t change their game based on the score. They keep on rolling, checking hard, playing sound defensively. On the other hand, I think the Oilers are an emotional team. That’s a good thing if it gets you up and makes you care about playing correctly. but it’s not good when it affects your systems and positional play. With a lead it puts the Oilers in a lull trying to ‘manage’ the game where they sit back a bit and let the opposition come at them over and over again. I cringe when watching it happen because you can feel the mistake or the goal against coming. When they are behind, it’s all emotion, and they try to force offensive chances and inevitably make an unforced error and give up a rush or a goal. Just play consistent, smart hockey. Don’t change your game based on the score. Play like it’s always 0-0. If your team system works at 5-on-5, it works at 5-on-5 no matter what the score is. And maybe that needs a team sports psychologist to instill that mindset.
I love the topic today and I am disappointed I’m late to the party.
Oilers failed to this and didn’t execute that……nonsense. They tried, but the opposing team was constructed and coached specifically to beat high skill teams.
Florida put together a forecheck system the Oilers could not beat. Florida owned the front of their net that Oilers could not penetrate. They reduced the game to one on one battles and that’s where they won.
All this in my opinion of course.
Last summer with the loss still stinging the Oilers added Arvi and Skinner. They looked like the best offense in the league.
It was the wrong moves, wrong player types and I said it then.
Today the Oilers must build and practice for the Panthers. Because other teams will also emulate the Panthers.
i like what the team has done this summer but no, its not enough. I’m hoping coaches can make a difference and close the gap some. Then the deadline, but hell, Florida owned the dam deadline additions as well and doing the same thing this year with the Turtle.
It wasn’t one play that beat the Oil, they were getting dominated for long stretches where no goal were going on the board but perhaps should have.
It starts with the roster of course. The coaching, systems, specialty teams….and onward.
I’m still taking the Oil of course, they are a good, good team and skilled enough to win and in the meantime I’m hoping both Bennett and Ekblad get run over by the Zamboni.
They could try protecting their slot and see what happens. It’s weird that they don’t to me
At some point we should discuss the fact that Leon, not Connor, actually goes into the coming season as #1C on merit.
It was he who was the best player in the world last year – not #97.
Everyone assumes Connor will flip it back. He may, but I don’t make that assumption. Both because of Leon’s progression and because something’s really off in Connor’s game. He’s gone from rarely having 2 bad shifts in a row, to disappearing for multiple games on end. That’s extremely strange and unsettling.
Leon is the one staying late at practice with the youngins (Jesse, Podz), has significantly upped his 200 ft game, plus takes the lesser/younger wingers and still produces.
McDavid will always be other worldly, one of the best of all time with his combination of skill and speed. When he sets his sights on something, he achieves it, though Lord Stanley’s cup has alluded him. For some it’s about the journey, for some it’s the goal?
I agree, McDavid’s overall play seemed to suffer this season. I truly believe the first loss to the Panthers broke him in some way. I also believe this second loss will reignite his resolve and he’ll “rebound” this season. Maybe he focused on his defensive play?
Incredible talent when his season that just passed was “sub-par”.
Connor is wild. He needs a strong coach to guide him. He’s older but has never had the right coaching
He tries the same things he always has, excepting the seasons when he would shoot. To me he has a one track mind, he has more ability than anyone else, but it’s a tough league and every team plans against him
He has to use his linemates a lot more and Stan has to find the best fit to help him. They have yet to find them, that help him see the level he is capable of, which is higher than this
Hyman is ok, but as I posted before he and Nuge have not increased their lines production in years. Each player’s peak comes at a reduction from the others, trading goals and points. To me Connor hasn’t hit what he’s capable of with the right help
Yes, I’m not sure what to make of McDavids season last year. Is he losing a step? Still a great player, but will need to bounce back to prior form to be called the undisputed best in the world. He had 26 goals last season. 40 should be automatic and 50 should be his standard. Hopefully he comes back with a vengeance this season
I believe he’s very strongly in his own head, thinking it is something wrong with him being the reason they didn’t win.
He’s shown his ideal method – the season when he shot the puck.
If he returns to that approach, they win it all. He’s too dangerous playing that way for other teams to take away the rest of the talent on the squad without letting McDavid run wild. Him moderating and deferring gives opportunity for the team to be beaten.
Slush’s point above is also relevant here. He needs the right coach. That can probably be an assistant, but someone to push the right buttons. He hasn’t had that yet.
Give Bowman time to figure out the Goaltening weakness and then this will be his team. Bowman has to be right about Howard-Savoie-Frederic-Walman and then to lesser extent Regula-Jarventie-Emberson-Samanski-Hutson-Tomasek-Leprechaun. 1 more year of wash then it’s Bowman’s image surrounding his nucleus. He has a plan in place in Bakersfield which will produce role players. No more Burt&Erne call-ups actual prospects will get the opportunity. Once he gets a Goalie, top 4 D replacement and a smart thug Bob is our Uncle.
There are, of course, many reasons why the Oilers ended up losing in the SCF including massive injury implications and top players struggling with their defensive game but, for me, a main issue was Coffey’s deployment of the defensive pairs and his refusal to move more off Nurse/Kulak and Ekholm/Bouchard.
Mark Stuarts talks about the great data the analytics group provides that helps them determine in real time what is and isn’t working. Now, of course, they get much more data than what I do by looking in NST but as far as actual results (goal shares and everything that underlies it):
1) Nurse/Kulak wasn’t working
2) Nurse/Walman had worked exceptionally well in the regular season and for 23 minutes in the playoffs
3) Kulak/Bouchard was off the charts awesome in 150 playoff minutes (7-1 goals and 61% expected goals).
Combine that with Ekholm being clearly limited and I truly think going with the following could have made a real difference:
Kulak//Bouchard
Nurse/Walman
Ekholm/Stecher
I don’t know why the organization continues to play injured players in key roles, it’s been many playoffs
It makes no sense, it doesn’t work based on the evidence. I really hope this season we see some changes. Things constantly change, tweaks are needed based on that, and continual improvement is needed to keep pace for everyone involved
Sure, we can discuss, but should note this is not unique to the Oilers – at all. In fact, seems to be quite the norm though the league.
There are, of course, many reasons why the Oilers ended up losing in the SCF including massive injury implications and top players struggling with their defensive game but, for me, a main issue was Coffey’s deployment of the defensive pairs and his refusal to move more off Nurse/Kulak and Ekholm/Bouchard.
Mark Stuarts talks about the great data the analytics group provides that helps them determine in real time what is and isn’t working. Now, of course, they get much more data than what I do by looking in NST but as far as actual results (goal shares and everything that underlies it):
1) Nurse/Kulak wasn’t working
2) Nurse/Walman had worked exceptionally well in the regular season and for 23 minutes in the playoffs
3) Kulak/Bouchard was off the charts awesome in 150 playoff minutes (7-1 goals and 61% expected goals).
Combine that with Ekholm being clearly limited and I truly think going with the following could have made a real difference:
Kulak//Bouchard
Nurse/Walman
Ekholm/Stecher
It’s time for Coffey to hand over the reins to Stuart. I thought Coffey did a good job now it’s time to see what Stuart has up his sleeve. Nurse did improve under Coffey but I thought he would transform him into a rover like his Junior days.
Coffey is no longer employed as a coach of the Oilers and, while he’ll still be around, he won’t be in the room and Mark Stuart will have full control of the defence.
Odd comment on “rover” as its Nurse’s “roving” in the defensive zone that is his biggest issue, at least for me. Him not holding position and going walkabout and puck chasing.
Nurse did have a good regular season this past season but, once again, not only did he not step up in the playoffs, he got materially worse and its been like that every single playoff season since the play-in year.
This past playoffs, to my knowledge, the injury excuse for his playoff play does not exist.
The goal against the Panthers is what he needs more of. Nurse should be going end to end on a certain occasions he has the speed to do it yet I think he tries to play to not be noticed. I think the criticism really bothers him and if he goes unnoticed no one can rag on him. Nurse I believe has another level Coffey couldn’t get it out of him we seen how Nurse plays when he’s pissed off. I truly believe we need a couple of assholes maybe Frederic is one. We are to passive why do you think Perry was so valuable? I think Howard and Savoie will bring some youthful energy it’s up to Leon and Connor to mentor these kids.
I agree and disagree.
100% I agree that Nurse should joining the rush – he is deadly from the high slot as the trailer. 100% I agree that Nurse should continue to use his legs on zone exit to skate the puck out and then transition via short pass.
I 100% believe he needs to skate less in the defensive zone and be “less noticeable” there. Getting pulled out of position and puck chasing/going walkabout is a huge issue. Losing his structure, getting turned around with his skates facing the wrong way, is an issue. Stop trying to do other’s job in the defensive zone, stick to your structure.
In a seven game playoff series each team formulates their plan and then battle it out.
The team that wins is the one that is able to force the other team to play their game. The starting strategy is not as important as the ability of a team to be able to adapt to the others teams strategy as the campaign progresses.
The Oilers were able to dictate their game in the first three rounds with very good success.
But the Panthers were able to dictate the game style of the finals and won the ultimate prize.
I’m reminded of a George Carlin quote: “Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience”. The Oil don’t have to out goon Florida they can out pass and speed around them.
The Oilers gave away their huge advantage and decided to play the Panthers game.
They have the fastest player in the world and chose not to leverage that advantage and turned him into a mucker.
In the Gretzky years the team played a very simple style, when you get the puck send it to Wayne. They were very successful with this strategy. Once they started dictating the game their opponent is forced on their heels and the pressure ramps up and momentum swings their way in a major fashion.
Yes, the Oil were a very good team back then, perhaps one of the best teams ever. Yes, they had enough talent to win one more cup after Gretz left, they were that good.
Let Connor play to his strengths. Every time he is given the puck and starts a run you can see the other team go into full panic mode and the Oilers game will only get better if that happens more often. Give him a good sniper/finisher who gives him a passing option as well as cleaning up rebounds.
Have the other lines play a defensively sound system and just look to play a .500 game. I agree with the host in that the Oilers can get too cute and look for the easy way out with dangerous passes instead of the surer, slower guaranteed route.
Very good take on the kids on the bus. I would say after the first 5 games of the Winnipeg series Ranford stood on his head. If we had Roloson or Ranford we possibly have 3 Cups by now. Everyone talks about the Hyman injury but I believe the injury to Pickard was bigger than the Hyman’s. Pickard was in the Zone and still had more to offer.
Without Cal Pickard the ‘25 playoffs would’ve been a disastrous first round exit to the Kings, and a summer of frustration and concern about McDavid’s future.
The comeback of 4 straight wins over LA, the hot start to get a series lead over Vegas, the game 4 win to tie the FLA series, you can’t ask more if your $1M backup than to go 6-1 in the playoffs.
This is a faulty analysis. The Oilers and McDavid tried playing their game, and they continually banged their head against a brick wall trying to force their game, instead of making smart adaptations, adaptations that they should have been trialing during the regular season to perfect.
Muhammed Ali went to the extreme in this (rope-a-dope). The Oilers and McDavid just need subtle adaptions to enable more optionality in their attack. It may be reduce efficiency during the regular season and against inferior opponents, but they will need it against the Panthers. It means McDavid has to do some things differently, so he doesn’t default into another heroic desperation charge into prepared defenses.
This is why the awful starts to the season have to stop, so the Oilers can work on building in optionality in their attacking game, and more discipline into their team defensive game.
I totally agree. Someone changed them into a cycle offense but didn’t finish the project. You have to be able to extend O zone time and not just try one and done rush plays, but there needs to be a point to cycling and I don’t think they get to that enough or consistently
The Oilers should be a pressure team and attack the puck constantly as the Panthers do. As it is they give up the neutral zone and because of their defensive inconsistency have trouble breakout under pressure
I think it’s part system and maybe they were just too old and couldn’t back check fast enough. Too many also in photo forwards as we watch goals go in. I agree they need to start as they mean to go, and work on details and not worry too much about where they finish if playoffs aren’t in doubt
It’s been along time coming, no more time to wait
The overnight temperature dropped to single digits last night, there’s a bunch of trees with as much yellow leaves as green which means it is time to talk hypothetically about next May/June.
Why did Edmonton lose this spring? Because they ran into a buzz saw of a team who destroyed every team they met. Edmonton was simply the last of the victims of the best team to make it to the finals this decade, imo.
I don’t actually believe Florida can repeat again (age, injury, 82 games to go) but those same impediments are up against Edmonton too. The difference is the Oil have improved this off season on the bench & behind it.
I personally think January is when we can start to debate the merits of next spring, but encourage anyone to air their feelings about the past, present or future for the collective entertainment. Just don’t say anything you can stand behind (or apologize for) in a few months.
The Oilers did the same thing on their way to the SCF.
After the first two games against the Kings, they took over that series and they absolutely ran through both Vegas and Dallas.
If Zack Hyman doesn’t get hurt on a fluke injury, the SCF likely goes ALOT differently – he was that impactful through 3 series. Not to mention Nuge’s broken hand, Connor Brown post-concussion not being the same player as pre-concussion.
I won’t even add in Bouchard and whatever he was dealing with which, apparently, was very substantial.
I acknowledge that I’m sure the Panthers were also beat up (i.e. Tkachuk with the Hernia and not being effective early in the series).
There were some good comments yesterday that Maurice knows how to beat the Oilers. And other teams of course. I don’t think that the Oilers can’t play that way, he has had two different teams do his system. It’s about discipline and effort
He also had the Jets gooning it up, remember that Scheifele hit that got him suspended? To what I see I think the Oilers need to play always as they are going to in the playoffs. They seem to get too banged up, I think that is because they haven’t learned how to play with more physical battle in their game, and when they try to they aren’t as good at it as some other teams and get hurt
The jailbreak thing and playing with impatience is also a problem. Hyman should not be getting hit open ice at his level of games played. He wasn’t paying attention. Connor takes far too many hits, nobody should be able to do that very often with his skating. It’s not leading by example or whatever, for the top players self preservation is job number one. You take one at times if you need to, you dish one out if it’s there maybe, but what’s important isn’t hitting it’s engaging and winning puck battles, and staying in position
The bottom 6 are the guys that should be wearing down the other team’s D, not the top 6 if it isn’t their natural game. As it stands they can beat teams that don’t challenge them in a certain way, basically let them play their game. It’s when that doesn’t happen that’s the problem, and it needs to be addressed
Knoblauch needs to win me back, I have doubts that he is able to be the type of leader they need. The X’s and O’s are the easier part, having the right plan in the first place, and getting the players to do it and keeping their heads and emotions together, is the hard part
Hasn’t happened well enough yet
As to self preservation, how often do you see Marchand, Bennett, or especially Tkachuk take a big hit? Even with guys going after them because of how they play. Not very often and not nearly enough, because they don’t let you. They are aware and don’t get into that position. That’s a practised thing
Coach K.K needed to trust and release Kane to do what’s needed. The refs all knew this and were targeting Kane for every ticky tacky call. The Kane penalties backed off K.K. Maurice played the reffing like a fiddle coach K.K needed to back-up Kane in the media and put the spotlight on what Bennett-Tkachuk-Marchand were getting away with while Kane was being fingered. 2 years ago I thought the difference was no Kane last year I thought the difference was the refs scaring Coach K.K away from getting nasty. Our special teams killed us as well the P.K formation was so easy to break through yet they stuck with the ridiculous swarm strategy.
Impossible to trust a player that couldn’t stop highsticking the opposition in the face every game. Kane took himself out of the series.
It is still the Oilers who beat the Oilers. Two years running. An inconsistent goalie and letting the other squad get you away from your game plan. The first 4 periods of that series should have been the formula. They’d have won in 5, easily. They were better.
Knoblauch lacks some things to help that. They never went at Marchand. They never keyed on Reinhart. The lack of that specificity hurt them. And the fact they don’t seem to have a coach who specializes in stopping things when the world starts spinning, and putting the team back on track. They need that. Connor isn’t that. Leon might be. But you usually need a coach too.
It’s possible the officiating sucked the air out of the Oilers too. But we never complain about the officiating.
Taking out misconducts back of the napkin, the Panthers had 31 penalties called on them, the Oilers 30. There was a problem with the refs not protecting the goalies for sure, and in not calling penalties throughout the game, in game 6 there were no penalties called in the 2nd and 3rd periods until Kane’s misconduct. Really?
We have seen that before, but you can’t let that stop you. The Panthers were the most penalized team in the playoffs with 125. Oilers second at 94, a function of playing the most games. Per game Panthers 5.56 penalties, the Oilers 4.27. The Stars had the 3rd most games played, 4.16 per game. The refs were calling the Panthers, perhaps LT’s Philly rule applied, cheat a ton they will only call so many, but they did get dinged more
The biggest issue was the Oilers letting the Panther’s get them off of their game. Gretzky used to get upset, but that stopped early in his career. He took an enormous amount of abuse, as did Lemieux, but that’s the price of admission to win a Cup. It’s been a decade and the Oilers are still ‘learning lessons’. It’s costing them
Their special teams weren’t good, the Panthers’ were. If you can’t play your best in a final you won’t win. I think the coaches needed to be better as well as a start
For sure. The old Oilers would not have become what they did without Sather, they all say it. You need both, but the HC is the general. Needs the right battle plan, and needs to lead the troops properly
I read that General Patton’s get up was about inspiring confidence, and the free world was lacking it for a few years. A silver plated 45, a 357 Magnum, pearl handles, riding pants and boots, an ahooga horn announcing his arrival, dog at his side. Sather is a big character, as self confident (or more) than the young players he coached. Maurice is a big personality and a character, very confident. Both aggressive (not out of control) and hell bent on winning, players fall in line and follow the lead
At times Knoblauch sounded like his voice was cracking in interviews. Being a good and gentle person of course has it’s merits, I’m not sure at the NHL level though. Full contact sports don’t suit pacifist players, or coaches. It leaves a team serious about winning vulnerable
Injuries played a factor in the SCF. The first four games were well played even affairs. But Edmonton had nothing left for the final two games of the series, that’s when mistakes happened, while Florida somehow had more to give and took advantage. That’s how I saw it anyway.
I’ll say again though, I’m not sold on team toughness. They need to be tougher and smarter than Florida if they both make it back next season to the SCF.
Game 5 was by far the toughest and most disappointing game I’ve ever watched as a Oilers fan since the debacle by Steve Smith. They succumbed to the Panthers very rarely do you see a Oiler team do this especially on home ice.
I sincerely though Edmonton was going to dig deep and win that game too. But they had nothing. There was no way Florida was going to lose game six at home. That game five was the back breaker for the Oilers.
Game 2 the winning goal makes me sick to my stomach. If the net was empty we would of had a better chance of the puck not going in. That Marchand flubbed shot goal wins the series.
Yup. Games 4 and 5 were so brutal that its easy to forget the verbal after game 4:
“Best SCF in history”.. And then… poof.
Team with the only two players suspended for peptides — a prohibited drug specifically used for quick recovery in athletes — happen to be Florida Panthers, which is also the team that had played more than any other over the prior three years. Funny how they found that extra gear when they needed it. Did Edmonton have nothing left, or did Florida “find” something?
What does occam’s razor actually suggest about SCF 2025?
What is the NHL protocol on testing? I’ve heard this rumour in several places. Shouldn’t this be dealt with by a simple pre-series test of all players?
ps. If we’re building a list for probable causes /things to blame for Florida’s 2025 SCF win, besides the six-man (plus two coaches) mistake that LT describes, let’s add the (legal until 2027 playoffs) LTIR manipulation that allowed them to ice a significantly over-cap team viz the under-cap Oilers. The only thing on the list that matters, of course, is: what can the team take responsibility for? I like how LT has framed Bowman’s response this summer. I’m keen to see how that takes shape on the ice. I’m also curious about how things, like LTIR and performance/recovery enhancing substances, are handled by the league. Curious. But not expecting much to happen quickly.
I likened it to the first Kings Cup. They went 150% for three periods every game, which I noticed and found odd. And then it turns out later they had a bunch of dope fiends on the team. Sutter is like oops
The Panthers should have been tested because they got caught, and had previous offender Schmidt on the roster and playing. What more do you need? Please retire Gary and lets get this stupidity fixed, all of it. The game can only get better, nothing to lose