This is the work of Byron Bader, who is the creator of HockeyProspecting.com. He does fine charts and verbal analysis, and is top drawer in identifying comparables. I find them to be informative in the early years of a prospect’s development and consider Bader an important hockey resource. If you don’t follow him you should. Here’s an example (on twitter) what he can bring you.
I wanted to look at the rest of the ‘riesen to believe’ group but time and circumstance got in my way so I’ll have to deliver those words in the days to come. I did write a piece on the Oilers aging roster you may enjoy.
Instead, I think we have an excellent ‘play along at home’ opportunity right in our faces. The position is goaltending. I think there’s a good chance Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard begin the season as Edmonton’s NHL depth chart population.
That statement is scandalous for some Oilers fans, and many of those fans believe a trade or signing is imminent. They might be right. Bowman is an aggressive general manager, although neither reckless like Peter Chiarelli or eternally prescient Glen Sather. It’s my opinion that Bowman has done a good job in procurement so far, and we’ll see as time rolls along about names like Ike Howard and David Tomasek.
The goaltending doesn’t look set across the pro depth chart. Skinner’s five-on-five save percentage last season (.901) ranked him No. 50 among the 64 NHL goalies who played 700+ minutes. He has regressed from his best season (2022-23), when his .926 save percentage had him No. 11 among NHL goalies who played enough to qualify (the top 64 goalies in terms of usage). All Oilers fans are onboard (I think) with an upgrade, but the problem for most is the lack of an ideal candidate.
Since goalie performance can vary widely from season to season, I believe Bowman is wise to wait for the NHL’s goalies to show what kind of season is ahead for them. Even then there is no guarantee, but you have a better chance of getting a strong option. Who knows, maybe Skinner establishes himself as a top-15 goaltender in 2025-26.
I’m fine with Calvin Pickard as backup, may be stone alone there but that’s my take on the situation. I think Bowman is aiming for a No. 3 goaltender who can push Pickard (like Michael DiPietro) and then looking at the deadline for his Roloson. Here are the bubbling unders entering camp:
Matt Tomkins is a big goaler man with plenty of AHL (91 games) and some NHL (six) experience. His .907 save percentage ranked No. 20 in the AHL last season. I do not believe he’s a clear upgrade on Olivier Rodrigue, but what I don’t know about goaltending is a lot. He is 31, and was drafted by Chicago during the Bowman era.
Connor Ungar is an underszied goaltender who played his first complete pro season in the ECHL one year ago. His .903 save percentage ranked him No. 37 among that league’s qualified goaltenders. My guess is he sees action in Bakersfield and also spends more time with the Fort Wayne Komets (ECHL) again this year.
Nathan Day is 20, a bigger goaltender, and finished up his OHL career with his best season (.894) playing in front of the Flint Firebirds in 2024-25. In three ECHL games, he posted a save percentage over .980 and that’s fantastic but a small, small sample. Suspect he’s in Fort Wayne for the season.
Samuel Jonsson is the most interesting prospect on the list. I have as the No. 3 prospect in the entire system after a fantastic year in Sweden’s second league (Allsvenskan). A big goaltender, he was .927 during the regular season and .913 in the postseason in Sweden a year ago.
Coincidentally the NHL writer’s panel just published their rankings of the top 16 goaltender tandems.
https://www.nhl.com/news/super-16-best-goalie-tandems-in-nhl-ranked-to-celebrate-goalie-week
Not much love for Skinner and Pickard.
Not a single Oilers fans would have presumed anything different….
You may be right.
Even Derek Van Diest who often demonstrates pro-Oiler bias didn’t vote for them.
Without Cal Pickard the Oilers likely don’t get past the Canucks in 2024, and definitely don’t get past LA in 2025.
Without Cal Pickard the state of the current Oilers would look rather dour, and we’re having a very different set of conversations about the present and future of the team.
Skinner and Pickard had there chance if Bowman thinks Pickard is going to save the season again it’s a huge risk. I still think a trade is coming if that doesn’t happen Bowman will pick up a younger goalie on waivers and test drive him it front of our D.
Is this a result of the sentiment you’ve seen here, or more of a broad stroke coming from other corners of the Al Gore and engagement on the radio?
I think most here are fine with Picks as a #2 or #3.
I think there’s a thread of discontent marbled through all of the places I drop by (here, The Athletic and the radio show). Pickard doesn’t get as much respect as he’s earned in my opinion.
Picks is a fine #2 if the team is icing a workhorse #1. Skinner is not a workhorse #1, I hope Bowman isn’t playing the waiting game on that.
Skinner is still really young.
Lots of starting goalies don’t get their chance as early as Stu did, once Campbell lost the plot.
Looks to me like the opposition has figured him out after his fine rookie season. Get him moving side to side he’s either to slow or he overreacts.
I’m hoping this is the case.
Its a beautiful Sunday morning and i sure enjoy this site.
Thanks to Lowetide and all commenters.
What an exciting season ahead!
Kostin essentially pleading with the Oilers to give him a job in an interview in Russia.
I see zero need to bring any PTO in to the Oilers camp, in particular at forward.
Presuming health (and we know Hyman MAY miss a small part of the beginning of the season but noone projects him out long term) the Oilers have 15 NHL forwards and that’s without including Max Jones at 16F and Roby Jarventie who, if healthy, is a legit NHL option before the calender turns. Heck, that doesn’t include James Hamblin.
Not only are the likes of Kapanen and Janmark at risk to be off the roster but the Oilers have a ton of players that can play up and down the lineup and various positions (Nuge, Henrique, Savoie, Frederic, Mangiapane, etc.) and they need to figure out who is going to play with who.
On top of that, a top of new NCAA and European signing that, are not real make the team options but some are potential call ups (Leppanen, Hutson) that need to get some reps – in addition to Leppanen and Hutson, Marjala, Carfagna, Samanski.
No need to bring in replacement level NHL players (Kostin who would be fighting with Max Jones for 16F) or over the hill non-effective players like Max P. to just add numbers.
There are so many players in camp that need reps.
Gotta say I would appreciate Kostin at league minimum instead of 1.4 for Janmark.
I would appreciate neither, and look to get the wish if they get healthy….
Henrique has zero business at this point ever being played in the top 6, if he’s playing up the line up the season is a write off.
Henrique spent his entire pre-Edmonton career as at top 6 player – he might be better suited as at top 6 winger than 3C.
I take Kostin over Jones all day, every day. Jones is a player you keep in the A for a minimum of 20 games and bring him up for 1 game only.
Then send him down for 20 games and play him only 1 game, where he’ll give you absolutely everything in 1 game, but afterwards he turns back into a pumpkin.
Kostin will provide 3 or 4 good games before bloom comes off and might hame more yet to give in the right environment.
I might take Kostin over Jones as well but neither should be anywhere near the NHL team and there is a ton to get done at camp – and a ton of players to get looks at.
Kostin on a PTO would create a buzz.
He genuinely wants to play for the Oilers again, he was a fan favorite. He had his best season in the NHL and also claimed that he could be himself in Edmonton. Not only that he wants to help Connor & Leon win a cup. Connor asked him to sign in Edmonton but the lure to big money was too much. I think he regrets leaving.
I’m sure he does regret leaving but he did and its over.
He’s been a non-NHL player for two seasons, couldn’t even keep a lineup spot on non-playoff teams – he’s really only had a couple small heaters of success in his entire NHL career.
The Oilers have enough players coming to camp.
As an aside, Gazolla says there is absolutely zero chance and cited off ice issues with Kostin when he was here (Gazolla’s speculation, not mine).
So many players of similar player type.
And while we need some offense to emerge, this group would have their hands full in a pee-wee scrum.
Kostin doesn’t need to put up more offense than others in this group, he would be on the team to add some missing ingredient.
You could use the above and replace Klim Kostin with Josh Brown…..
Stu Skinner is the new Jeff Petry.
Craig MacTavish was the individual who didn’t believe in Jeff Petry. Stan Bowman has, to this point, stuck by him. Suspect that changes unless Skinner has a brilliant season, and a goalie acquisition isn’t out of the question before the season.
If Bowman goes into the season with Skinner as the starter, I am not sure he needs to be brilliant, but at least above average. If he can approach the .910* sv% range or .10 above whatever league average is this year (league avg. last year was .900), be more consistent (a bad game here or there is okay, but not many and not in prolonged strings) and at least be above .500 against the top 8 playoffs teams in aggregate, that might be enough to not spend more cap on a starter.
*.910 would be tied for about 15th among all goalies who played at least 10 games last season.
I think Skinner will need to be stronger than average in order to hold off a deal. Suspect it would take a strong season for the GM to keep his powder dry.
I don’t think I described anything to suggest otherwise. My view is that brilliant would be in the Vezina consideration and I don’t think Bowman would set the bar that high.
Sorry if I misunderstood.
Only 7 goalies last year that started 20 games had a better than .910 (and then 3 with .910 including Ullmark, Wolf and Thompson).
A .910 is now top 10 tending (give or take) – without any context, of course.
FIrst, I said he needed to be at least above average (ie more than average).
Second, I said he needed to approach .910 not be at or over it, so .908 to.909 would be in that range too.
Third, I did give some context when I said league average per Naturalstattrick was .900, that that could change year over year, and that .910 would be tied for 15th among goalies with 10 starts, That’s just into the top quartile among those goalies.
Fourth, there were 9 goalies not 7 who started 20 or more games that had better than .910 with 10 11 and 12 all tied at .910.
Finally, while .910 didn’t stop a few tenders from getting a few Vezina votes, though no serious chance of being top 3, I would hope Skinner would not have to play brilliantly to obtain a .910 save percentage as that would likely mean the environment in front of him was not as good as it needs to be. That’s where expected goals come in but none of us are going to agree on that metric unless we all got access to professionally sourced analysis and not what is readily available on the internet for free or even a modest fee.
A .910 last season, for Skinner would have looked a lot like the year he got 3rd in the Calder but no Vezina votes. In the context of that season, he was brilliant as rookie but not necessarily brilliant as a seasoned starter. But that comparable level is probably good enough to be thought of as a more reliable starter for the playoffs based on the other criteria I laid out.
Skinner has lots to prove. I like his attitude. He’s young and he has plenty of experience already. I’d love to see a 1b guy come in to bring in some compete.
Skinner is Dubnyk right before he went wandering the roads for a few seasons.
Duby credits Sean Burke with turning around his career. Said he learned a lot from him, talked about how Burke refined his puck tracking.
Be interesting to see how the new coach impacts the goaltending.
Skinner has a wealth of experience in big games. He has had some great performances in the regular season and the playoffs. I am hoping the coaching staff earns its keep and helps him establish the consistency that characterizes the play of great goal tenders.
Yevseyev with his first game of the KHL season and, get this, led the team in total TOI with 21:35. Couple shots and a couple blocks in a 2-0 win.
Certainly a promising start re: ice time compared to last season.
While on the subject, Tommy Lafreniere started his preseason Fri. night as the 1C in Kamloops and finished 1G 2A +3. Though he struggled on faceoffs (5/16) I like that he lined up at centre even if against just preseason comp. Excited to see how he and Lewandowski develop this season in the Dub.
4:16 on the PP……
I see he’s been loaned out by Ak Bars. Could be a great opportunity.
There has been quite a bit of talk, here and elsewhere, about the likes of DiPietro and Daws – Stauff has alluded to waivers and goalies for a while and a potential late off-season, non-big name, add.
I would LOVE to have DiPietro in the system but there is zero ability to acquire him and have him on the AHL team (unless he somehow clears waivers and then we trade for him – similar to Samorukov for Kostin).
The question is if the Oilers are confident enough that he can perform at least near the ability of Calvin Pickard as 1B that they can risk Pickard on waivers. There is clear upside but, at this point, its just upside.
The though of Hyman on LTIR (and Stauff alluded to a scenario where he doesn’t play until November) – that could allow 3 goalies on the roster for a period. Not idea but some runway to see if DiPietro looks like a legit NHL goalie early.
I love his track record in the AHL – its got some length to it.
We hear on the radio “Who do you get who’s better than Skinner? There’s nobody out there.”
Let’s say 5v5 Sv% is the number we use to measure goalies. Depending on the sample you choose, there are anywhere from 10 to 49 goalies who are better than Skinner, and he’s been trending downward. I just looked over the last three seasons filtered at 2000 minutes. Skinner is 35th at .914. Stolarz was 1st at .934.
One of the things about analytics is that it brings clarity through simplicity. Simply put, there are a lot of goalies who could be better. And you don’t have to spend a lot to find one.
There are no guarantees. But the odds say that if you get a goalie with higher Sv% over the past three seasons combined, he will likely be better provided the samples are comparable. And given where Skinner’s game has landed, that replacement would be unlikely to be worse.
P.S. The pharma hack is a serious liability.
What do you recommend in regard to the pharma hack? I am calling Blue Host later today, they may be able to help.
That’s a good idea. This seems to be similar to what is happening with your site and outlines some steps to take.
https://digwp.com/2010/07/wordpress-security-lockdown/
Okay, I have contacted blue host and they are working on problem. I’m not able to identify what needs to be extracted but they can email me and I’ll pull the guilty items when they get back to me. Thanks!
I like this take daniel. How the team plays in front of a goalie has a large effect on their results, which may be the hardest part in comparing them. Still, I think a pro goalie coach should be able to assess technique and weaknesses. Probably a GM as well. For me it has been a weakness before, Schwartz saying Campbell was the guy over Kuemper, and years of being weak in the position for one reason or another. Smith was pretty good, but age and ankles lessened him
From what Woodley has said about Stu, the Oilers I think play into his weaknesses. He would look better on a disciplined defensive team that is predictable. The Oilers are, sometimes. Quick or unexpected movement is where he gets into the most trouble, based on what Woodley calls his narrow stance
If you put Bobrovsky on a team that pressured the puck less (not taking as much time from shooters), and left guys open in front more often, he’d have a lot more trouble than he does. Because he plays the bottom 2/3 of the net, does it very well. Get pucks up and it’s a different story, it’s there
Before Stolarz was acquired in place of Talbot, and during his brief tenure here, there wasn’t much to suggest he was going to have the subsequent success he’s enjoyed.
Goalies are voodoo.
LT, I’m curious why you don’t use GSAx and xSv%? I feel like save % is as much on the skaters as it is a reflection of the goalie. Do you not have faith that the advanced stats are accurate?
As is the case with almost all of the newer metrics (Puck IQ aside) I’m waiting until there is an industry standard. Everyone has a bible currently, I’m not going to use any of the GSA or xSV material until there is universal agreement. We are in the tower of Babel era, I’m not going to contribute to confusion.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FHyvjcYZ3zg