I love the fall. Leaves turn, hockey gets underway at all levels, and soon those crisp mornings will mean the dogs refuse to come in the house because it’s fun running around in a pile of leaves. Hockey is underway now, the Camrose Kodiaks play their home opener tonight, the Oilers are hosting the Winnipeg Jets at Rogers Place.
Because I’m a nerd, fall means the renewal of a mountain of nerdworthy things. Like, for instance, may I ask you how much you’ve thought about NHL waivers recently? Not to brag, but I’m way ahead of you and it’s not going to get better.
Today’s conversation is going to be about Connor. No, not McDavid, nor Clattenburg, but in fact Connor Ingram. Much has been written about him, and his hitting waivers yesterday. Me? I’m laser focused on Logan Stanley of the Winnipeg Jets. He’s a gigantic defenseman with just below average footspeed. Last season in Winnipeg, he played a depth role and, as always, his fancy stats were not strong. Stanley, like Kris Russell, has established this weird tendency to outscore his expected five-on-five goals. Last season, his expected goals percentage was 48 percent, while the Jets scored 58 percent of the goals when he was on the ice. Damndest thing, because it was the second year in a row he did it (via Natural Stat Trick).
I’ve spoken about him many times on the Lowdown with Murat Ates at The Athletic, and yesterday afternoon on CJOB radio Winnipeg with Noah Fuchs. I believe he could help an NHL team. He isn’t on waivers yet, but if he is, I’d like the Oilers to grab him. I know you’re going to say there’s no room but I like him and think he might help on the PK while being a big No. 6-7 defenseman. If you remember the playoffs, I think the idea of Logan Stanley on Edmonton’s defense has appeal.
Okay. Connor Ingram. I prefer five-on-five save percentage when looking at goaltenders. Many do not, and that’s fine, but for me it’s the purest way to judge an individual goaltender. I want to see if Ingram has stronger numbers than Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard over the past three seasons in the metric. Fair?
2022-23: Stuart Skinner .926 in 50 games; Connor Ingram .920 in 27 games.
2023-24: Calvin Pickard .925 in 24 games; Connor Ingram .919 in 50 games; Stuart Skinner .913 in 59 games.
2024-25: Calvin Pickard .908 in 36 games; Connor Ingram .902 in 22 games; Stuart Skinner .901 in 51 games.
I’m not certain Ingram is an upgrade on either goaltender currently in the Oilers employ. Blue Bullet Brad, who is a friend of the blog and a fine analyst, called me “out to lunch” in regard to my take on the Lowdown (I don’t see a compelling reason to move out Pickard and insert Ingram) a little while ago.
Brad could be right, his analysis is never less than interesting, but my own feeling is the team claiming him today will say something like “our goalie scout had a great passion for him” and we’ve been to that rodeo before. The Oilers might claim him and lose him to another team, or maybe they claim him and he ends up being a brilliant pickup. I am saying I do not see it from here. It’s a bet. All bets have risks. The odds of Ingram being better than Pickard, based on the metric I trust, are not high. The odds of Ingram recovering at a higher rate than Skinner, based on the metric I trust, are not high. We wait.
On the Lowdon today, our feature guests will be Steve Lansky, Tyler Yaremchuk and we’ll have a massive NFL weekend preview. Declanations will also appear and of course we’ll preview Oilers versus Jets. Noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube.
What we’ve learned about Oilers rookies Matt Savoie and Ike Howard in preseason
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6660338/2025/09/26/oilers-matt-savoie-ike-howard-rookies-preseason/
Tut tut. I didn’t see your usual caution about small sample size. The Howard PP points/shots per 60 is astronomical. Could have unwary readers salivating.
— speaking of the fall i had a wonderful moment with my 6 year old son this morning
— he had a 7am hockey practice (that’s another post, the madness of kids organized hockey now)
— anyway we leave at 6:40 in the morning and it’s pitch black : he’s never outside at that time so he was marvelling at how dark it was and was curious to observe that it seemed to be getting slowly lighter as we drove.
— practice ended at 8 am and we get out of the arena just after 8:10 and it’s completely sunny : he couldn’t understand what had happened so that it wasn’t dark and was very animated
— I once read that the greatest gift of organized hockey for parents isn’t the actual games and practices rather the drives back and forth where you get to spend times with your kids and talk about everything. For sure this was one of those moments.
Lovely!
My kids are adults now. Driving them anywhere (or being driven by them anywhere) continues to be some of the best time lost together. And now I’m getting similar magical moments with my granddaughters.
I would grab Logan Stanley in trade or waivers. Absolutely get him into the system. While we have other options, he brings a different element and a team should have a variety of tools available.
When the Jets put the Oilers out of the playoffs a few years back, Stanley dominated the ice. He owned his corner, nobody wanted any part of him in the corner nor the front of the net. Oilers would skate the other way.
Archibald chopped him down at the knees and I was fine with it. Not Archie’s fault he’s closer to the ice and Logan is big. Archie’s took the worst of it in regard to penalties and rebuke from fans.
Regardless, if Stanley can play, and he still needs to be able to play, his size brings another dimension to the defence.
Ingram clears.
As I said, no surprise there at the $2MM cap hit.
A trade (with retainment) could make some sense now that he’s available for the AHL.
Recently retried Tyson Barrie will be joining the Canucks regional broadcasts on SN (home games) – I’m not sure what capacity, probably intermission analyst.
I love listening to Barrie speak – always great on podcasts, etc. Really seems like and awesome guy.
Likely as an analyst replacing Ray Ferraro when he is away tending to his other duties.
Ferraro recently signed on to do some LA Kings games and will still be doing ESPN games.
Busy guy.
Yevseyev with close to 20 minutes in a 2-0 win. Oh, ya, should mention two assists in that 2-0 win – one at evens and one on the PP.
Now up to 5 points in 8 games which I believe is top 5 in d-man scoring in the KHL.
POP!
While I wish Ingram well, I don’t think Edmonton would be the best landing spot for him. I also think trying to slot him ahead of Pickard, and dare I say it Skinner too (there are people who are convinced he’s a better option than Stu) is a dangerous game. He’s solid enough as a 1B or backup guy from what I’ve seen and going by the numbers, but I don’t think he’s a material upgrade on either of our guys. The grass isn’t always greener.
Now, back to my plans to somehow turn a bag of pucks into Sorokin….
I agree that I don’t think we’re the best spot for him. He’s also not my favourite of the potential waiver pick-ups. I don’t mind taking a stab at Ingram, but only if we’re willing to do some cold, calculating player value maximising. If Ingram is a wash for Skinner, then freeing Skinner for a trade (I believe he likely has some value), is probably not a bad asset management move.
New York has a significant Russian community, and Russians tend to congregate there (e.g. Panarin signing there). Sorokin and Shesterkin are good buddies. Varlamov is his nominal backup. (I’m seeing a pattern here.) Even if the Islanders go the rebuilding route, I doubt Sorokin wants to leave, unfortunately.
Linus Ullmark was available quite recently. He single-handedly separated Ottawa from the Detroit/Buffalo pack of teams that were not quite getting over the playoff hump.
I would take chances on Jeremy Swayman.
The problem is that our goaltending is like a 20th overall team. Not good enough to be content, not bad enough to go hard for anything that comes available.
Calvin Pickard has done everything you could have asked for out of a backup, and yet if we do anything, he’ll be out of a job.
Per Tony B:
That Mangiapane – Henrique – Savoie line is the 3rd line apparent eh? If Mangiapane still has all the speed it could work out pretty well. I like Savoie not being thrust too high up the lineup to start the year but I would like to see him get a go with Drai eventually.
I’m intrigued to see who emerges to make up the 4th line from the Howard-Tomasek-Kapanen and Janmark-Philip-Hutson sets. Philip looks to be doing everything he can to earn that 4C slot.
I too am looking forward to these lines. Fingers crossed that Philp keeps doing what he’s been doing this preseason.
Is this the expected lineup for tonight’s game?
Yes.
Thank you
More likely Winnipeg would trade Stanley rather than waive him.
If Pickard continues to outplay Skinner this preseason do you not owe it to Cal and the team to start him in game one. We can’t afford to start the season 1-4 while Skinner is adapting to a new coach and 15 pound weight loss.
Connor Ingram has a $1.95M cap hit.
He has some upside but he is also no locked in upgrade on either Oilers goalies, not playing for most of last season and having a poor performance prior to the Players Assistance Program. Team matters in his recent numbers, of course.
I have said that, if they put Hyman on LTIR they have room to carry 3G but I find that very unlikely.
That $1MM over Pickard does not provide value – plus the waiver risk on Cal
The play here is, if he clears, and he might at that cap hit, is to acquire at half retained and allow him AHL time and see where it goes.
Could the shoe drop October 1st after a certain so and so signs. This signing should free up a pretty good goaltender out East apparently where the rumours are swirling.
If the Oilers pick-up a Goalie off of waivers say Dipietro does he have to be on the Oilers roster a certain amount of time before he can go to Bakersfield?
The Oilers can pick him up, but if the club wanted DiPietro in Bakersfield, they too would need to place him on waivers.
Thanks I guess with a cap hit of anything over a million it wouldn’t make sense to pick up any goalie unless your playing him instead of Pickard. Placing Pickard on waivers would be kinda nasty after Cal has been a more than adequate back-up for his price tag. Anyways I do think Cal would get plucked off of waivers with that cheap price tag he carries.
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
Paul Maurice tells reporters that Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov is undergoing surgery for a right knee injury.
Timeline for return TBD.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Going to know more in the next 24-48 hours, but Panthers are bracing for the possibility their captain, Aleksander Barkov, could be lost for the season.
Would be brutal, no one wants to see that…but, unfortunately, was a bad injury.
Did no one tell the Panther LTIR does not work anymore to circumvent the cap!
Anton Lundell is ready to be #1C. So they only need to find an elite #3C. If Barkov is gone for the season, they can offersheet Mason McTavish, but they probably lack the picks required…so nix that.
More likely Sam Bennett fills the 1C spot with Lundell moving to 2C.
Evan Rodrigues should slot in at 3C.
Maybe I’m wrong, it has happened many times before. If Barkov is out for the season, they can only replace him with a player at the league average AAV. That’s a helluva blow, not feeling bad for them but isn’t that part of the new CBA?
When I said in the summer that the Panthers have a tougher road to return to the SCF than the Oilers, this is not what I thought, but it is not unexpected. They’ve had three hard years in a row, winning twice & partying all summer(s). Fla was more susceptible to injury than any other team & it sucks that it happened to Barkov. It will be interesting to watch Zito adjust this winter to keep them in contention. The new cap rules make it that much harder for them.
I’m curious: why was Fla more susceptible to injury than any other team?
More Playoff games = more injuries.
Because they’ve gone to the final 3 years in a row & each summer has been very active for their players when they won. I’d say the losing team has a worse summer, but a lot fewer events.
Plus, with the way they play, it is harder on their bodies, imo. I could be wrong, but that is my prediction which I feel I should stand by, right or wrong.
Offseason activity is not a known precursor of knee injuries.
Walking around drunk holding Lord Stanley above your head could be considered hazardous. I’ve noticed some Panthers do this in the water. This likely cuts down on risk of injury.
Thank you.
Prospecticism!
After taking last season off, the Dub returns to the NAmateur pool. And with Nicholl taking a turn this season as “designated Oilers gimped-up prospect”, the WHL gets the spotlight this weekend.
Lewandowski and Lafreniere were returned to junior earlier this week and are expected to be in their respective lineups tonight.
WHL games this season can be seen on Victory+.
Saskatoon (Lewandowski) @ 7 p.m.
Kamloops (Lafreniere) @ 8 p.m.
Both times, as usual, are Evansburg time.
Speaking of Connor’s I think he is waiting for others to sign before he signs a team friendly contract, which he doesn’t want to be a “ceiling” for salaries
I had been thinking about this for a few weeks now. Just my thoughts but I wonder if there is friction between McDavid and the PA when it comes to what he’s willing to sign for and what the PA would be hoping for? If he’d sign an under market deal, it’d probably piss off the union.
Let the likes of Kaprizov sign for $16+ million, rising cap or not, that’s a lot of money to 1 player.
He knows he can’t win the cup with a 17 mil contract but doesn’t want to piss of the nhlpa when he signs for 15 mil so he’s saying vague things like I may not sign until mid season to pressure Eichel Kaprizov and Kyle Connor to sign their contracts and then sign his. Unfortunately so far it hasn’t worked
I can’t agree on Logan Stanley. The Jets play button down, which helps the backend with significantly more forward support than Edmonton’s makeup.
Helleybuck does what Carey Price did and polishes turds for a living.
Add to the fact that I’ve watched Stanley be a pylon repeatedly for years during my stint in Winnipeg and I’d say it’s a hard no from me dawg.
Stanley in Winnipeg is what Lucic was in Edmonton for a few years, the butt end of the joke.
This is not the Stanley the Oilers are looking for.
Archibald knocked him down like he was shot he’s a wuss just like Sheehy was.
Today’s conversation should really be about the Flintstones, I see you Barney Rubble’d the photo LT… in addition if we’re talking about bets… bet.. bet… bet… bet. I believe Darcy would approve.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-D50bjRjwHc
Mental health issues are around my family, so I am not speaking from a place of insensitivity or lack of experience. Edmonton is probably not a great fit for a player that has had some issues with this
It is certainly among the top teams in terms fan and local media attention, to the point Stauffer mentioned that hockey radio goes 365 in Edmonton, through the doldrums, and that is not the case in most markets
There is also the pressure of playing with two superstars and the highest level expectations. That’s a lot of pressure not in most markets. I think Bowman will wait until he finds a goalie he clearly sees as better or more what he prefers, which is what he said some months ago. Maybe it’s CI, I’m leaning to probably not
It is also a welcome change that Stan has been openly supportive of his goalies, praising them, nobody under the bus explicitly or implied. At the same time making it clear he would still make a change if it made sense, as it should be in pro sports