On the pivotal play in last night’s game, Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner experienced vapor lock and surrendered the lead. It can’t happen, and it happens often in Edmonton. There are reasons for Skinner’s status as the No. 1 goaltender in Edmonton. He saved the day in 2022-23, but has delivered less impressively since. Stan Bowman made a small trade in preseason and we’ll see how much Connor Ingram can help as the days roll along.
I believe Stuart Skinner will have an NHL career of note. Increasingly, I am wondering if it will be with the Oilers. There’s a Devan Dubnyk vibe to the Skinner experience, and last night isn’t going to lower the temperature in the goalie room. I think we’re getting to the point where the Oilers and Skinner might be better off getting second opinions. It’s a tough job, playing goal in your hometown.
Draisaitl-McDavid-Frederic played 11:46 at five-on-five, 10-3 shots and expected goal share of 91 percent and 4-0 in HDSC. The five-on-five line that scored the goal was Mangiapane-McDavid-Frederic, the trio going 1-0 goals in 42 seconds of play. Connor McDavid was 0-2-2 in 26 minutes (including all game states). The captain had five shots, three HDSC’s, both good signs for a player who will need to shoot more with Hyman out.
Draisaitl went 1-1-2 in 24:40 in all situations. The goal was No. 400 in his exceptional NHL career. He is fourth on the all-time list, behind Wayne Gretzky (583), Jari Kurri (474) and Glenn Anderson (417). Leon had four HDSC.
Podkolzin-Philp-Kapanen were the No. 2 line, playing 9:58 together and going 7-3 shots. The line was 0-1 goals, Philp going dash two on the evening. The own goal was a flukey one, I’m not going to blame Philp on it and Skinner’s time to react was minimal. Generally pleased with the line, 55 percent expected goal share.
Mangiapane-RNH-Savoie went 1-2 shots in 7:31. The trio was 0-1 in HDSC and nine percent expected goals. I can’t see this lasting long and am not sure Jack Roslovic will be slotted here. The second line needs Leon Draisaitl. Mangiapane scored in less than a minute with McDavid. I don’t think 97-29 lasts October as a true line. Matt Savoie made some nice passes but needs more touches to have an impact.
Howard-Henrique-Tomasek went 3-0 shots in 6:13, 100 percent expected goals and 1-0 HDSC. Ike Howard had a couple of nice looks and you can see what he’ll bring when the game slows down for him. Howard had a HDSC, David Tomasek two. Tomasek also picked up a dandy PP assist on the Draisaitl goal. He’s a very good addition to this team. I think his two-way acumen may emerge with Roslovic in the fold and see no reason why Tomasek should be the one to come ouf of the lineup. I suspect it’s Kapanen.
Ekholm-Bouchard played 16:51, 15-4 shots and 1-0 goals. Music! 77 percent expected goal share and absolute money when with McDavid. I think the top pairing is back. Bouchard will take a lot of heat for the third goal against, but the goalie has the con in that situation and Bouchard’s job is to wait for a pass or clear imo. You could be critical for not offering a lane for Skinner, but that’s picking a nit.
Kulak-Emberson got second pairing minutes (12:07) but barely as the second and third pairs were faded by the coaching staff at five-on-five. 2-2 shots, 54 percent expected goals. Ran a clean slate and nothing diabolical happened. That’s the goal for a depth pair.
Nurse-Regula were not strong. They were 4-3 shots, 0-1 goals and 64 percent expected goals in 11:25. Nurse went walkabout at times, Regula played well enough but there was chaos. This may bring Troy Stecher back into the conversation on the second pairing. Jake Walman may also be close enough to be a factor in the coming days.
JACK ROSLOVIC
You’ll read much about his incosistency but Roslovic is a strong player when given an opportunity in an offensive role. I value the previous three seasons, that gives us a nice ‘established level of ability’ for a player we don’t know well. In the past three seasons, Roslovic has scored (five-on-five) 1.87 pts-60, 1.78 pts-60 and 2.1 pts-60. That’s a very good indication that he could thrive in Edmonton on a skill line. His expected goals have hovered around 50 percent in each of those seasons.
On the downbeat, Edmonton will be his fourth NHL team in the last four seasons. Why? Puck IQ has him playing enormous minutes versis elites in Columbus (40 percent in 2023-24, 48 percent Dangerous Fenwick) before settling in to a depth role with the Carolina Hurricanes last season. We’ll have to wait and get to know this player, but he is absolutely a find at this point in the season.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk about last night’s game, the Jack Roslovic signing, the Jays moving on and more! Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will pop by and we invite you to join us. Noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Holland is doing work for the Oilers still.
Sounds like Kempe was looking for 10 million, but Holland was putting the squeeze on him so now Kempe’s camp wants closer to 12 million.
Reminders:
1.There are very few good goaltenders out there
2.Skinner is on a value contract
3.Bowman just procured Ingram, who has promise but needs some time in the AHL.
For sure, Skinner had a bad start. But nothing is changing in the short term. Let’s give him some rope.
No Oilers on waivers today.
I don’t think they’ve registered the Roslovik signing yet and don’t practice until tomorrow. I think they can waive a player the same day as a signing for roster purpsoes so maybe its delayed until tomorrow.
Re: Skinner: Coffin, meet nail.
Skinner will bounce back from that.
Home opening with a 3 goal lead – how many teams blow this?
Its not just a Skinner, or Bouchard, or Nurse.
Last two seasons the coaching rode along on McDavid and Draisaitl. There are sone new coaches on town and its time to get coaching.
These gaffes, let downs, and mistakes must stop. Endless cycle for a point shot. High risk plays vs patience. Stick checks vs body checks, Stick swinging vs dominating the front of your net.
By the way, Roslovic is the new J Skinner, doubt this coach even plays him. But coaching needs to step in here. There should be NO teams who get up by 3 goals and lose a home opener against their rivals.
First half of game looked great, last half a disaster.
First half showed what the team can be, last half what is.
Unable to get the winner in OT while on the PP?
If the Flames were any good the game wouldn’t have gone to OT. If not for their goaltender Oilers would have won. It’s not like we’ve never heard that before.
This is the Oilers we’re talking about. Losing games they should win.
They’ll get it together. Still, games like this are galling. It’s part of being an Oiler fan.
I’m not gonna get my shorts in a bunch over the miss cue.
That play was designed for it and a veteran player executed it to perfection.
If anything, our G settled the knuckle puck well.
Early season gaff, and he was sick during camp.
Get the cobwebs out and get back in the saddle.
There were a solid 5 minutes that the team got disjointed.
And some of our veteran players failed to make veteran plays.
ie, Nurse solo attempt.
I don’t think Bouch was moving the puck well either.
I also don’t understand why Mangiapanne was left out of the shootout.
How do you have all of Bouch, Howard, Savoie ahead of Mangipane that scored a nice goal behooves me.
This team has an abundance of secondary scoring wingers, why in the hell are McDavid and Draisaitl paired together?
With Hyman being down slot as many of these guys as you can with the big 2 up the middle and see what sticks.
Howard has no fear in being selfish with shooting the biscuit, let’s see what happens when the games best are feeding him.
Mangiapane scores an absolutely beautiful marker, doesn’t get a shot in the shootout against his old long term squad? I like alot of what the coach does, but he doesn’t seem to be one that can read the tea leaves.
it was wild to hear their percentages in the shootout last night. Nuge 30%, Drai under 40%, McDavid less than a coin flip.
I would of had Mangiapane shooting 4th, great game by European Dustin Penner but definitely running Mangiapane out for that 4th attempt.
My thoughts on Skinner have been known for years.
The bigger thing that pissed me off – what happened to the Battle of Alberta, man? This was a season opener against your supposed all-time rivals and it’s like they already agreed to head out for dinner after the game.
Hope Skinner missed his dinner!
Maybe Ingram should leave left his suitcase packed. The funny part is if Pickard comes in and plays well he saves Skinners job more than his own. I don’t think Skinners contract is moveable so Pickard is going to be the odd man out no matter how good he plays and how below average Skinner plays. Pickard has feelings just as much as Skinner does and just because Skinner is a hometown boy should have no impact on Bowman doing the hard part of his job and essentially firing someone he may or may not like.
This doesn’t make sense. The money is roughly the same for the organization no matter who is up or down, both in terms of cap and dollars paid out. So it shouldn’t matter to the organization who goes down except waiver claim risk.
I don’t understand Skinner Cap hit will still be roughly 1.6 million if he’s sent down whereas Pickard can be completely buried or close to it.
Skinner’s going to be in the KHL this time next season. No team in the NHL will touch him.
Should of dumped him this Summer with the new coach the new weight loss somebody got sold a bill of goods. Over the last 2 years there isn’t 1 goalie in the league that’s lets in more flukey goals. Watch his head he has trouble following the play. He needs to go on a camping trip with Bowman-KK up near Peace River.
It’s easy to “blame” guys for the end result and it’s not often the case, BUT the track record of Skinner and Nurse were on full display last night. 10 cent brains.
Nurse, with a 3 goal lead trying to deke through 3 guys.
Skinner, well we all saw it.
You can’t move Nurse so your only option is to GET A F*&^%ing goalie.
I don’t get the Roslovic claim. What they need are better two way players. Ones that can reliably play the system and still contribute offense. That’s not my impression of him, -10 on the Canes 3rd line TOI, 46-55 goal share 5v5
Roslovic bounced around because he doesn’t have a lot of jam to his game. Skill and speed when he’s allowed to do so. Not so good in the tough areas.
So not really what the team needed, but this point, sure, grab him and see what he can do. Still need some jam though.
Yeah, I agree. I think he’s too good to pass up. A guy near 2.00/60 for $1.5M? You take that all day, especially when you’ve got three good centers feeding him the puck.
For cap reasons, we had to let gritty guys like Perry/Kane/Brown/Arvy go. Those four, combined, got something like $18M this year. For $8.2M, a ~$10M saving, we replaced them with Savoie/Howard/Roslovic/Tomasek/Mangiapane. Not ideal in terms of fit, but pretty darn good in terms of cap management.
I presume we can pick up/trade for some grit at the trade deadline. Maybe we even pump and dump some of the aforementioned offensive guys (Roslovic/Tomasek?), whom we don’t all have room for, in exchange for a Perry type. (Possibly even for Perry himself, if the Kings somehow fall out of the race.)
Agreed, he sounds like a J. Skinner replacement.
He led Carolina in 5 on 5 points last season – that has real meaning.
That must be the like from Bowman, 19 5v5 goals. But as noted above, 46-55 goal share
Attribution is important. Carolina goalies have been a notable tire fire akin to the Oil.
Roslovic’s CorsiRel has been positive throughout his career, even if his expected goal +/- has been bad. Columbus wasn’t exactly a powerhouse during his time there.
Bouch will take (and is taking) heat from those that think he’s a terrible defensive player, lazy and/or soft – he gets blamed for quite a bit when he is either not culpable at all of down on the culpability list.
Ekholm looked like Ekholm last night and that is a huge huge arrow up.
If it’s not for the gaffe then Skinner has a good game and an unlucky .895 (through 3 periods)… but man oh man what a gaffe. Oh well.
I was going to go through every player, but I really just wanted to say that I was impressed with Howard’s almost compulsive attacking of the net and I loved his confidence to try and chip Wolf in the shootout. Takeaway from his NHL debut is that this kid is going to be a hell of a player if he can process the game at speed.
I hope they don’t send him down for Roslovic. He definitely didn’t look like it was his first NHL game.
It’ll be Philp he’s not a Bowman guy plus he doesn’t really do anything to impress.
A good start to the season for Skinner to quiet the noise is essential. It was volatile 24 hours ago and that’s definitely increased now. A very meh game plus a bad blunder was NOT what Skinner or the team needed.
This has real potential to snow ball – its one game but that snowball will gain momentum fast if it doesn’t turn around.
Sigh.
I’m starting to wonder about K.K he should of started the better preseason the better playoff the better goalie all of last year. Now if K.K doubles down and Skinner shits the bed again Saturday against another division opponent the mob will get worse.
Skinner has no business being a starting goalie on an NHL team.
For those who defend him, if the Oilers were to waive him today, which teams would submit a claim?
Why didn’t they pull the chute on him this Summer. I guess for 2.6 million they thought he was the best option. Bowman slow played it and knew a few Goalies would be on the waiver wire. Is Ingram the answer I don’t know but I definitely know a goaltender that needs 4 shutouts in a row just to get to .900 is not the answer.
Chicago, Buffalo San Jose, Pittsburgh and Columbus. I’m not defending him, but he’s 26, and costs $2.6M on an expiring deal. He’s not headed to Siberia from Edmonton.
Agreed.
Stu’s bouts of… indecisiveness always seem to lead to these chaos blunders. Move it or freeze it. He who hesitates is lost. Can new goalie coach work the indecision out of Stu’s game in time?
Just noting, Ingram didn’t play either exhibition game last weekend. Jonsson and Day split each. Jonsson was OK and Day was exceptional. Jonsson has since been assigned to Fort Wayne leaving Ingram, Tompkins and Day in the AHL.
I have no idea if Ingram starts on Saturday in game one, if he’s weeks away from playing or somewhere in between.
I read something about getting him ready to play, so it seems he’s probably going to work with Aubry to start
Centre depth will definitely be an issue if McDavid and Drai play together for most of the season.
I love RNH, and he had some good games at centre in the playoffs, but he is not good enough to centre the second line. Especially not with the quality of wingers this team has.
This was not a good morning for an east coast Oilers fan. Blue Jays celebrations, followed by the Oilers looking like an absolute wagon for the first half of the game lead to an overindulgence. 1 hour late for work today!!
My observations:
-Coaching staff had all the info available to them (Roslovic aside). If they break up the glimmer twins after 1 game, it’s not a good look in my opinion.
-I love Roslovic signing.
-Tomasek is a giant. Give him lots of opportunity.
-The term “second opinion” came to mind about Skinner today for me also, and I’m a fan. There’s zero chance he’s the #1 goalie going into the playoffs. We can talk all the bad bounces we want. As our gracious host here always stresses, trust the math.
I’m excited to see Roslovic join the fray. Hopefully, SB can work some more magic and get a late pick from NYI for Janmark.
My favourite part about the Roslovic signing is the fact that, while not a full time C in the NHL, he is a very good face-off man. As a RHS, that’s something this team has been lacking.
He had great numbers last year, but looking back farther, he’s never been a 50%+ guy in any other season.
I may have spoke too soon. His FO prowess was one of the reasons I was hoping we’d sign him all offseason
He is a below average faceoff man with a career 44.4% win rate. His stats are very similar to RNH (1.98 ES/60 vs 1.84 ES/60) other than he does not PK very much (only 0:27 / game career). I did not compare PP stats as Jack will not be getting any PP time in Edmonton.
A big-picture view is that the Oilers are getting a right-shot player very similar to RNH but for $3.5M less. Roslovic should immediately become the 4th line center, so goodby to Lazar and Philp.
Great work by Bowman and staff!
The good news is Skinner’s performance last night further dissolves the delusion that he is an NHL-calibre goalie.
Connor Ingram can’t get here soon enough.
Hopefully, the riches on the wings will allow us to separate McD and Drais soon.
Skinner is not going to change at this point. He may have hot streaks over the course of his career, but will also continue to exhibit moments like we have witnessed over the past number of seasons.
I truly believe a number one goaltender will change the entire feel of this group. Imagine the swagger with an alpha in the crease. It would be fun to watch.
We definitely should find a way to lock up Kulak on a reasonable long term contract and after the first year find a way to dump the Nurse contract.
2 more years of pain before he doesn’t have a choice
The good news is, contrary to our fears, it looked like we had two third lines instead of two fourth lines.
The bad news is, it actually looked like we had three third lines.
That was absolutely a high stick on the 2nd GA.
Against one of the worst teams in the NHL, on opening night, the Oilers
Lost the 5v5 scoring battle.
Lost the goaltending battle.
Sounds too familiar.
Sure it’s only one game, but they all count the same.
Unimpressive. There can’t be any excuses anymore, given where they are. Boston still rolls despite everything. It’s about how you play as a team, and coaching
The maddening part of sport is that luck is involved. Moreso in hockey.
First goal against, there was no danger. I don’t understand the Nurse blame. He had cover. Philp was in the right position. Hockey isn’t 100% ideal.
2nd, props to Zary and legality aside how the hell did any of that happen.
Then brain fart but the Oil hit some posts and had some great PP chances.
Hockey, in all its glory, is back. 30 you win, 30 you lose (with loser points included) and the rest is the difference between good and bad. Typically.
That may be the case for average teams that don’t have league top players. The Oilers do, more than one, and usually if that’s the case those teams are dominant and win Cups
It’s hard to tell why they can’t play normal structured hockey consistently. This was my concern starting last season with the coaches. They are well undershooting what they should be able to do every game. They should be a nightmare 5v5
They play to the corners in the O zone and find their own zone baffling to cover well. Ringing the puck around the boards and setting up point shots with no traffic is the lowest percentage way to play. Even with traffic. The only reason to cycle is to attack the net down low
It’s just the first game, but it looks like what they were doing before, which doesn’t work well against tight aggressive teams, the type they need to beat in the late playoffs. They should have hired Q
The first 30 minutes were exactly as you said. The Oil were completely dominant and full value for 3-0. Then oopsie and some luck and it’s just a fact when your goalie is booty you play more cautious. Even then they really didn’t give the Flames anything. None of those goals were vapor lock high danger moments.
It felt like game 7 Vancouver where it was complete driver seat hockey then 1 mistake or bounce and bang clench your bottom. When it rains it pours with this team, but they overcome it. Not like LA who admitted the coach did NOT tell them to back off in the 3rd periods and they still sat on their blueline and let the Oil back in games.
Coffee hit so apologies for tangents.
Agreed on all points. Lighting our hair on fire for a game where they got goalied a little by one of the best up and coming goalies is understandable.
The vapor lock on goal 3 is a small thing, but may be decisive on 74 leaving town.
Skinner would look good on the Islanders helping them obtain high drafts picks to further build up their young squad.
What a completely original experience that game last night was, unlike any Oilers game I’ve ever seen before, or would expect to see again. Goalie booted the puck, huh? What’s next, I wonder?
I’ve given Skinner a lot of rope and have defended him because I think his development curve has not been fair on the player… but man, his post game interview bothered me more than the flub itself. Read the room man. If Stu can’t tell us what happened is inexcusable then he doesn’t believe it himself and 97 left that money in the table for exactly the opposite result. Very, very angry at Stu this morning.
All he really needed to do was freeze the puck. I don’t know what he was thinking when he decided to move the puck to the corner.
I don’t buy into the development of a player needing to be so perfect or they’re ruined. The worst thing is rushing them and having expectations, but they can still do it, like Nuge who was like a kid getting pin balled around his first season
At the end of the day in any sport top league it’s hard to make it, and it’s up to the player to find what they need. I think Skinner philosophizes too much. I don’t like most players doing that. They shouldn’t let him talk to the media – show it on the ice where it counts
I mean we are in agreement, I am just more sympathetic for the years he spent being treated like the #1 Campbell was brought in for.
On goal 1, Nurse was the deepest oiler and did not maintain possession, all I could think was the coverage scheme is now broken and what a selfish play up 3-0 he thinks the game over. Sure enough flames come down and score a fluke, but it wasn’t a fluke. Players out of position trying to cover, facing wrong direction to get into play and not facing attackers to defend. What’s going through nurse’s head.
I was annoyed. Nurse wasn’t going anywhere with that biscuit.
100%
This level of puck management is coming from a veteran leader!!
The minute he turned it over I knew we were in trouble
Skinner should have been in a set position not daydreaming about the Olympics. How many flukey goals does Skinner let in compared to good good Goalies. Should have started Pickard he’s the better Goalie watch K.K be stubborn and double down Saturday.
I don’t see the goal this way at all.
Skinner was in position to take a shot from the player who made the pass. He was tracking the puck and going across to be prepared for a shot from the player receiving the pass. He wasn’t down because he was moving across and doesn’t want to give up the whole top of the net before a shot is even taken. He’s in a position to stop the puck when it’s deflected but just doesn’t react in time.
You can argue that he’s too slow to react on the play but that’s about all Skinner did “wrong” on that one.
Nothing!
Oil need to move a player off roster for Roslovik – assume Lazar wavied today so Roslivik can practice tomorrow (he’s playing Sat). Will need two more players gone by time Hyman is activiated (if noone else on LTIR) – Janmark and Stecher/Regula probably
Why don’t they just replace Kapanen with Roslovic? I don’t get what they see in Kapanen
They like his size & speed. He had the game winner on his stick but hit the crossbar. Bad luck. Lazar was the healthy scratch and one of these days Janmark could be moved.
He also turned the puck over twice at his blue line. Kapanen, at best, is a fourth liner
He has the look of a big fast skilled NHL player. But he’s 29, it ain’t getting better. I like the player type as well, but to take the next step, as a team they have to reduce those types of plays – killer in playoffs. Make the safe play, especially with a lead
I can’t see Lazar going out over Janmark.
Same player for half the cost if you trade Janmark.
If you waive Janmark, same player for 65% of the cost.
They would need to waive Kap today as well then.
Kap >>> Lazar (but also $525K more – but that doesn’t matter at all right now – it will potentially though when Hyman is to be activated.
I really like the Roslovic signing and agree that at this point in the season, it is rare to “find” a 20 goal scoring, proven NHLer who gets his points at 5v5. Not sure why he was scratched in the playoffs, but it’s hard to see a downside to this signing at this point.
Oilers deserved two points, and the good news to me is that the Oilers didn’t give the game back by being dominated or anything like that. Foot off the gas pedal? Maybe. But all three Flames goals had a whiff of fluky-ness to them.
Majority of the time, that’s a win. Bring that level of play all season, hope to god between Skinner/Pickard/Ingram you can get anywhere close to average goaltending, and this team will win the division.
Because Rod The Bod deemed his defensive play not good enough
It’s his defense that must be a concern, which is why he wasn’t snapped up in free agency.
It looks the Canes trading Rantanen for Hall & Stankoven, and then adding Jankowski at the deadline, put the squeeze on Roslovic’s spot in the lineup.
Roslovic was able to stay a regular through the end of the season due to injuries to other forwards, but once the playoffs started and the Canes were at full health, it was only going to be one of Jankowski or Roslovic in the lineup.
In the playoff,s for the most part, on the nights where Jankowski suited up Roslovic sat.
Roslovic seemed to be the preferred player of the two until the Panthers series. Jankowski is a large man, and against the Panthers, Rod may have thought that his size would be more helpful in a bottom six role.
Roslovic is a huge get for this team. Now need one more top 6 forward and a goalie and we’re cooking
Good night watching the Jays beat the Yanks and then the Battle of AB. Too bad the Oil couldn’t close that one out but I guess at least we get a point losing in the Shootout…. 🫣😬
Skinner can gain 20 lbs lose 20lbs but the real issue is between his ears. Once he gives up a goal he starts giving up bad goals.
I agree. He would benefit from playing down south I think. Let the pressure off.
You should never get excited about how much weight a player lost “to get quicker” unless he was fat to begin with. David Wells? Get excited. Stuart Skinner? It won’t matter.
Yeah I thought he was going for the shutout. But as soon as that first goal snuck past him I figured Calgary was going to make a come back right quick.
Nurse with a giveaway leading to a bad bounce/luck goal (that wasn’t a bad goal but not unstoppable).
A giveaway leading to a penalty taken allowing for the chaos an the NHL to make a “bad decision”.
I don’t know what should have happened 40 seconds in to the third but I do know what Skinner and Bouchard did (I think it was 98% Skinner) was not good enough.
Oilers deserved 2 points but also deserved ZERO points for being stupid – I’ll take the one and move on to Saturday!
Not sure what Bouch should have done. But all Skinner needed to do was drop down on the puck and stop play no hesitation because Koleman was obviously right there.
I guess he couldn’t just taken the puck but Stu had “control” and was “in control” of the situation and need to be firm in a quicker decision.
As Strudwick has said, some guys never get it. I get the NHL is fast, but I’ve been watching hockey for a looooong time, and the better players play well and make good decisions the majority of the time. They make it look controlled and easy
The best goalies make great saves a lot, and don’t whiff on very many