No living thing in my experience can express worry, disdain and disappointment like my Ziggy. I went through my photos in an attempt to find the one that fit my current mood about these Oilers, and Ziggy’s ‘annual review’ photo won the prize. If you’re curious, I didn’t get a good review that day, and it will take a miracle for the Oilers to thrive on the road trip ahead.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0
- Road: Blues, Stars (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-1-1
- At home to: Avalanche, Blue Jackets (1-0-1) Actual 1-1-0
- On the road to: Flyers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes (1-2-0)
- On the road to: Sabres, Capitals, Lightning, Panthers (1-2-1)
- At home to: Stars (1-0-0)
- On the road to: Kraken (0-0-1)
- Expected Record: 6-5-3, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record 2-2-1, five points in five games
- Season Record: 7-6-4, 18 points in 17 games
I have the team going 2-4-1 in this stretch, and suspect that’s a fair estimate of what we’ll see in the days to come. I had them starting 3-1-1 and they are 2-2-1, that’s in the range of normal. If ever Kris Knoblauch needed one of those Knoblauchian winning streaks, this would be the time.
The team isn’t playing well, the eye test and the numbers will tell you as much. I’m a believer in five-on-five numbers, and that includes goals and expected goals. Using Natural Stat Trick, and applying it to the current Oilers defense, we get a frightening group of numbers that suggest (wait for it) the results of five-on-five play align with expected.
- Jake Walman 54 pct (45 pct expected)
- Ty Emberson 53 pct (49 pct expected)
- Troy Stecher 50 pct (33 pct expected)
- Darnell Nurse 44 pct (41 pct expected)
- Brett Kulak 38 pct (45 pct expected)
- Evan Bouchard 32 pct (54 pct expected)
- Mattias Ekholm 31 pct (56 pct expected)
- Alec Regula 0-3 goals (52 pct expected)
So, who is playing in bad luck? And when Knoblauch benches one of the three men math identifies as getting less than a fair shake, what does that tell us?
I’m not one to call out Darnell Nurse, he has delivered some fine seasons over the years. He has been 50 percent or better in five-on-five goal share five seasons in a row leading into this one. So, believe me when I tell you these are the worst results we’ve seen from Nurse since he was a rookie.
I’m not sure what is going on with this team, but they’re not going to win doodly squat by punishing the guy who looks indifferent while acting business as usual with the guy who is playing poorly. It’s a damned mess out there, people.
CONDORS
We are getting some separation now in even-strength goals. You can see Roby Jarventie fade as he plays every game (including back-to-backs) and I don’t think placing rookie Connor Clattenburg on his line this early is wise. Jarventie is good, and Clattenburg may get there, but that’s a big ask for all involved.
I picked Quinn Hutson as a player to emerge based on the quality of his college career, and he’s doing well in his first AHL season. He may well have a lesser career than Clattenburg, but at this stage Hutson is the better player.
There are a pile of veterans getting fed at even strength, led by Seth Griffith. Don’t let the scoring totals fool you, Rem Pitlick is a far better player at this moment than Griffith. Not close.
The defense needs help, and part of it is Atro Leppanen. I’ve tracked even strength goals for years, never seen anything like it. The Hockey Gods are against him, or he’s the one Finnish defenseman in history who didn’t learn to guide the play to the outside. I have a defenseman I’m cheering for (Carfagna) but don’t have one I could recommend.
Matt Tomkins should sue for non-support to my eye. He has poor numbers but the team is not strong defensively. Also, Tomkins is surrendering a GA per game on the PK because the Condors are always in the box. I like the forwards on the Condors, but they need a defenseman who can help out in the worst way.
On the Lowdoown today, our feature guests are Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic and Kevin McCurdy. Plenty of Oilers chatter and the opportunity to have a long look at what Stan Bowman might do as we approach the deadline. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Rope-a-dope?
Don’t worry, Picks will fix that
Savoie didnt look like a passenger, which is really hard to do on a 97 line.
He made plays quickly and didn’t defer all the time.
Again!
Credit where it’s due – the Oilers played a solid game tonight. Won a game without Leo or Connor scoring.
Roslovic is looking like he’s a keeper. Mangiapane not so much. Frederic is show some flashes … perhaps enough that some other team will feel that they can unlock him. Savoie is looking stronger and more confident as the season goes on. Howard should go down to the Bake to polish up his game, when Hyman gets activated.
Wouldn’t it be something if Roslovic could score the OT winner tomorrow night too?
Not only would it be against his hometown Jackets (again), he would tie Cogliano for the NHL record for consecutive OT winners.
Make that bet son
The Hockey Gods. Just handed us 4 points and a possible starting point for a epic road trip.
A win, but not a sustainable winning formula.
That’s a good sv% for Stu.
Nine fifty Stu!
You better savour this gift.
Stu was good enough. I get nervous when he has to make a save.
He makes me nervous playing the puck as well thought he made a unnecessary rim around the boards with a minute left where he could of just gave it to the D. Anyhow he got the job done hopefully this is a kickstart for him. We need Pickard to follow it up tomorrow.
Gotta be good to be lucky.
Howard with 7:38 ice time. Send him down and give him 20 minutes a game. He needs to play. Savoie seems to have found his groove after a season in the minors. Ike needs to do the same. If he takes off bring him back.
First star- Oilers video guy!
Or Cam York for that brutal turnover in OT. Philly has a bunch of flawed players.
Yea but doesn’t get to OT without the offside call.
The “goal” should never have happened – it was offside, should have been blown down.
Bad play by the Flyer – Roslovic, better blue line play
Does Edmonton have to request a review or is it automatic being the last minute?
You are correct, it was league initiated because it was in the last minute of the game.
Toronto calls the review in the last minute.
Savoie is certainly proving he is worth the reps he is getting in high pressure situations. He was all over the ice tonight.
It is great seeing Roslovic potting a bunch too.
I was watching with a Habs fan who doesn’t watch the Oilers much and until tonight, had never heard of Savoie. He was very impressed with him and how noticeable he was, in a good way. Roslovic is looking great.
By far his best game as a Oiler.
I’m not sure we’ve found the formula yet with the last couple of games haha. But winning is fun! Roslovic has been a revelation.
Glimpses of the suppression Oilers, at least thru the first 40. Nice to see.
Yes. When the forwards come back and the defense doesn’t have to make a lot of stretch passes, the team game picks up. Who’d a thought?
I was just hoping. McDavid and Leon would get off the ice for A fresh Roslovic. I knew he would bury the biscuit. I never knew he was so fast and strong on the puck. If I was him I would fire his agent asap. K.K needs to start playing the players that are having a good game. I was laughed at when I said if Rosolvic goes on a heater that he could be in the USA injury replacement for the Olympics. Him being in the spotlight in Edmonton definitely gets him a look if he can keep scoring big Goals.
He has zero chance of making the US Olympic team.
The likes of Cole Caufield are bubble players.
If they play like they did for the middle part of the game, they’ll win most games.
MATTY SAUCE! JACK RACKS UP THE OT WINNER!!
Tough play for York, but I’ll take it every time.
LOL Savoie to Roslovic.
Back-to-back Jacks!
WOW! Savoie to Jack for the winner. Signing Roslovic was brilliant!
Hell, yes!!!
Vladar can Roslovic my balls.
Kids produced when not paired with Henrique, what a shock.
Savoie’s coming out party whoo
Matt Savoie coming out party!
stereo lol
He’s proving he belongs.
Was THAT onside?
Great drag by Roslovic!
3×3 OT should be advantage EDM.
A little bit of karma, the guy who has been allowed to play outside the rules all game.
The overtime hockey league is really getting boring.
I mean, would you rather have them lose in regulation with less than a minute?
Would rather have them beat this weak opponent 4-1.
What a relief.
Wow!
offside still oilers looked terrible
That change with 30 seconds left was stupid and the refereeing has been criminal bad!
This is a bad hockey team. That’s clear.
Told ya.
Wow, offside. Maybe they can still lose it before OT.
Or in OT.
And they win!
Jesus Murphy…….
YEA!!!!!
Oilers looking for a way to lose this game.
Found it
This didn’t age well
Found a way
Mangy turns the puck over that could have cost the game.
Great entry and pass there by Mang – nice to see him do something positive.
Freddy was pushed ever so slightly. Should even that up .
Like the drive to the net but bad time to be shorthanded.
That was a good sequence by Frederic. Probably ran the goalie, but the play leading up to that was nice.
Frederic and Mangiapane look like 4th liners at best. No spark from either guy to go along with all the poor plays.
When is Nurse gonna sit ?
Guessing never….
Just one bad play after another with this guy.
Nurse needs the next game in the stands for sure. Then if no improvement he becomes number 7 until someone else takes that job.
Nurse had 7 defensive zone face-offs and 3 offensive zone, was not on for any goals at 5 on 5, had a 72% expected goals while playing primarily against the Couturier/Zegras line.
He made some mistakes and killed a few offensive plays but so did all the other d-men – did anyone see Walman treated the puck like a grenade most of the night?
Sitting Nurse for Stecher or Regula does not make the team better.
Some say sitting Nurse makes the Oilers worse currently, not me though.
Man oh man Mcdavid needs a winger. Savoie is fine, but Mangi is a liability right now.
Need Hyman back ASAP.
Flyers getting more shots on Skinner, that’s probably a good idea.
Konecny and Emberson were embracing like long-lost lovers, and the refs choose one to pick out of that in a 1-1 game? So aggravating.
Ekky shooting grenades at Bouch.
What a ridiculous call. Glad they killed it.
Who was holding who? What a crappie call.
Two holds and an elbow. Minimum.
That was a weak call in a 1-1 game in third period. Yikes.
That is one of the most ludicrous calls I’ve ever seen.
The Flyer committed 3 infractions minimum.
They need shots on the PP.
This is a Must 3rd period we need 2 points bad as well as starting this road trip off properly. Preseason is over time for Bouchard-Connor-Leon-Walman to step it up. If we don’t allow any shots they can’t score.
Disappointing to be tied in a game that we are dominating and should be handily ahead. Still a positive that we are actually dominating a game. First time this season I believe. This should be the standard, not the exception
No such thing as dominating without goal scoring…
Can’t agree.
Baby steps