As much as a fan might want to rage against Edmonton Oilers loss against Washington Capitals last night, there was far more effort given and some signs of adjustments in breakouts. Far from perfect, but there’s a sliver of hope. Will it be enough to win tonight? I don’t think so. Will it be enough to save jobs? Too soon to know.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0
- Road: Blues, Stars (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-1-1
- At home to: Avalanche, Blue Jackets (1-0-1) Actual 1-1-0
- On the road to: Flyers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes (1-2-0) Actual 2-1-0
- On the road to: Sabres, Capitals, Lightning, Panthers (1-2-1) Actual 0-2-0
- At home to: Stars (1-0-0)
- On the road to: Kraken (0-0-1)
- Expected Record: 6-5-3, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record 4-5-1, nine points in 10 games
- Season Record: 9-9-4, 22 points in 22 games
The Oilers are bleeding now, another week of losses will bring a reckoning. I’m not sure Kris Knoblauch has the answers, and there are definitely vibes similar to the final days of Jay Woodcroft’s time with the team.
One of the things I’ve always tried to encourage on this blog is for all of us to be less certain about everything. We can all look back on things we’ve written here and elsewhere that turned out wrong, but in the moment certainty, courage of conviction and an edge in verbal often wins the day online.
It doesn’t make you correct, and none of us likes to be reminded of errors in our strongly held views. I will tell you I don’t know if Kris Knoblauch will or should lose his job, the same way I didn’t know if Dustin Schwartz should lose his job.
I will tell you that, from my point of view, the team has looked indifferent in recent games and that’s a bad sign. I did see signs of life last night, and some good things, but what the hell do I know?
For me, firing a coach who took you to the Final two years in a row is a brazen choice. It’s a Lou thing. You have to be so damn sure. Is Stan Bowman sure? Suspect he makes a trade before the coach gets fired, but it’s a guess like any other.
FORWARD LINES
- Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Mangiapane: 7:04, 5-1 shots, 54 pct X; 5-3 HDSC
- Savoie-McDavid-Roslovic: 5:16, 1-4 shots, 0-1 goals, 42 pct X; 2-2 HDSC
- Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman: 4:31, 2-1 shots, 94 pct X; 1-0 HDSC
- Frederic-Henrique-Hyman: 4:27, 1-3 shots, 14 pct X; 0-1 HDSC
- Podkolzin-Henrique-Roslovic: 2:04, 2-0 shots, 100 pct X; 3-0 HDSC
There are some interesting numbers here. I don’t know what’s rolling around in Knoblauch’s brain for tonight, but I’d run Podkolzin-Henrique-Roslovic for more than two minutes. In fact, I’d run that line right after Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman when the team is loading up. Savoie is getting lost a little in these latest shuffles, Knoblauch is not a friend to youth really.
You can see Knoblauch’s problem based on numbers through the first 22 games. If we attempt to populate three lines (Knoblauch doesn’t use his fourth line anymore), we can begin with the impact players (McDavid, Draisaitl), the real contributors (Hyman, Roslovic), the guys you are getting some things from (Nuge, Podkolzin) and the people you need more from (Henrique, Frederic, Mangiapane). Nuge is hurt, so we’re talking eight men now, so let’s replace RNH with Savoie.
Frederic had a reasonable game by the numbers last night. He and Mangiapane delivered three high dangers, and Savoie posted two HDSC. It’s important to build on those things. I don’t think the Oilers win tonight, but there were some encouraging signs from the forwards.
A quick note on David Tomasek. I’d given up on his ever making an impact, but the goal he scored was impressive, and maybe he finds his way back into the rotation. My goodness it would be a lift.
DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS
- Nurse-Bouchard 18:16, 15-7 shots, 3-1 goals, 72 X; 8-2 HDSC
- Ekholm-Walman 18:07, 8-4 shots, 0-1 goals, 64 X; 8-6 HDSC
- Kulak-Emberson 7:36, 1-2 shots, 0-1 goals, 52 X; 1-0 HDSC
- Stuart Skinner: 14 stops in 19 shots, .737, stopped one of five HDSC
Darnell Nurse had a helluva game, Evan Bouchard is posting good crooked outscoring numbers (5-1 goals at five-on-five in the last three games), and the second pairing was unlucky to go 0-1 goals. Brett Kulak is all lost in the supermarket.
Tough to look past that Stuart Skinner line. I think we’ll see a new goalie soon. And yes, that’s a guess.
On the Lowdown tonight, we’ll talk about last night’s game, look forward to this evening and discuss what may come. We have reached a solemn point in the cycle of this team. Again. Man. It shouldn’t be this difficult. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
I had to watch the game without sound:
Someone please explain to me why the tying Lightning goal wasn’t challenged? That looked clearly offside, no?
Ok just read on sportsnet it was the “is the puck carrier actually in possession if he isn’t literally touching the puck at that very moment” loophole to this already stupid rule. Sorry for forgetting that because of course this is exactly how we had been nurtured to understand what offside is for the last several decades sometimes I forget.
Well, that was a treat! Too bad about the loss, but it was very good to see this team looking something like the team I think they are. Of course, there will be whiners, people who can’t enjoy what’s unfolding in front of us these past two games. Too bad for them.
Go Oilers!
God has spoken,shame on people for having different opinions. Name calling is a mature response. Count me as one of the whiners because I’m unhappy with how the team has played this year.
You should get together with OP as you two both seem to think your opinions are the only ones that matter.
Maybe Octane has a web site. I’m sure the Oilers cheer squad will be very positive. This is an Oilers page. I’m pretty sure Lowetide accepts all opinions, as long as they’re cordial. As it should be.
Our big guys and Florida’s have played 40ish more games of hockey in the last two years compared to 95% of players. That’s a lot.
Big turnover of the forwards, a lot of older institutional memory gone. Injuries to Hyman and Nuge. Guaranteed growing pains but guys are settling in now.
Breaking in three newish guys on defense + getting Ekholm to trust his hip again? Growing pains.
The goalies suck and based on the numbers pretty much everyone else is an upgrade. Has been the case the last two years I wouldn’t expect changes.
Maybe the team and coach knows what the regular season is for? Collecting points, finding your role, building a Team and trying to stay healthy. The real work is in the second season.
The Playoffs are baked in. The Pacific division sucks. It sucks hard.
3 of the top 10 teams in the league are in the Pacific Division.
You need a better cookbook. The reason the Pacific is so bad is because EDM plays in it. The only team clearly worse than the Oil is Calgary.
Check the wildcard standings. Not in good position and about to be passed by San Jose. This entire organization should be embarrassed.
Everyone but Anaheim is rocking .500.
Feel free to believe in the depth of Anaheim and San Jose if you’d like. I’ll fade both over an 82 game schedule. Young men on young teams popping early like the Oilers in 2011. Next year they might be ready to playoff bubble.
Vegas is muddling, weaker on the backend and still weak in net. Best of the bunch.
LA is worse than last year, same with Vancouver, Calgary and Seattle.
Not a great start to the season but you gotta have some dark shades on to think nabbing a spot in the Pacific will be tough.
What?
“Everyone but Anaheim is rocking .500.”
ANA .675 (tied going into the 3rd period)
VGK .650
SEA .625
LAK .600
SJS .525 (leading 3-2 in the 3rd period)
Heh.
Sharks win in a shootout.
Now .548…tied with the Oilers in points but have 2 games in hand.
The problem, at least for me, isn’t a setback. Even missing the playoffs for one year wouldn’t be the end of the world if it didn’t seem like this team was being run into a wall. With McDavid seemingly only hear for good times, I don’t know how to remain optimistic.
This team needed McDavid under an 8 year team friendly deal so they could take a step back and possibly make a big jump forward.
They were never going to sustain this run for his whole career and he knows it.
13 games and counting between regulation wins. Franchise record is 14 as far as I can tell.
On one hand, good game, against a hungry opponent. One point is not necessarily an unfair result.
On the other, goddamnit, close it out! In this stretch, NYR, Dallas and Tampa were all third period leads blown. 3 big points right now.
And yet, a chance to go .500 on the toughest roadtrip of the year on Saturday.
Easily the most confounding team of the McDavid era, maybe in franchise history.
I wonder if Knobber gets shit canned?
Not based on the game they played tonight
Well no, based on the fact they have been thoroughly mediocre this season and now they are going home and have a two day break upcoming.
Also, they got worked by Tampa in the third and scored one goal. And lost again. That is pathetic.
Tampa was also playing without Hedman.
I don’t think blowing a lead and losing in overtime is the endorsement of Knobber you think it is.
There are no moral victories at this stage of the season. It is just another loss in the column.This is a team with no identity. We’re not fast,not physical,what is this team’s identity.I think we have taken on the persona of our coach and his staff…..VANILLA,EMOTIONLESS,LOST IN SPACE.
What is our identity? Last in the league in most defensive metrics.
I will be enthused by a solid performance tonight. By far their most committed 60 minutes effort of the season and their feistiest game of the season (on likely the most scheduled of all losses on the season).
Sucks they weren’t able to hold on in regulation and sucks that Jack couldn’t raise that puck but I look forward to Saturday night!
That one’s at Florida. Should be good watching.
Yes but you always see rainbows and sunshine with this team. We had hung on for dear life the last 40 minutes and were lucky to be up by a goal. Without Pickards heroics this game would have been a 3 or 4 goal loss full stop.
xGF% 35 for the Oilers tonight.
This was not progress, this was a team holding onto a lead with a single goal.
Fire the f**cking coach already.
This was progress. Excellent first then exactly what happens on a 3 in 4 b2b with travel. Tampa is good too. Picks played great.
Save the rhetoric for the homestand or idk, watch the game with some context.
Many teams can play with a lead. They actually keep pushing to the end. You must be used to watching a lifeless team sit back and hope that 1 goal will be enough. Pickard the only reason it wasn’t over in regulation and any sane observer would say the same
I watched them play a solid game they almost gutted out but fire coach cause xGF number bad on scheduled loss night.
You want them to lose because you want the coach fired so you can be right online, sane indeed.
This makes no sense. Getting personal means you don’t have an intelligent response.
I also watch the games, hoping they will win. I’m not a sadist. Perhaps don’t make assumptions about people you don’t know one damn thing about?
You began the ‘personal’ by implying my sanity was in question. Don’t throw stones if you don’t like them thrown back.
Ok, champ, I’m the one that wants to be right online.
The sane observer comment stands, but you’re the one that decided to make it personal. If you can explain to me why Pickard wasn’t the main reason the Oilers did not lose that game in regulation using logic or reason, I will listen.
There are 20 minutes in a period, and you can’t remove the importance of the final stanza to suit a narrative. TBL handily outplayed the Oil in the 3rd by every metric, and were only down a goal to start that period, in a game that had been slightly tilted in Edmonton’s favour to that point. I don’t consider that progress, losing a game while getting outplayed for the final 20+ minutes. Sorry that hurt your feelings. I want to see this team get better and there is clearly something holding them back. I see it as coaching.
There’s one person emotional and with hurt feelings here.
I didn’t dispute Pickard kept them in the game, nor did I dispute they got outplayed in the last 20.
You’re trying to set the table for an argument nobody made.
The first 20 was excellent. They’re in 3 in 4 in different road cities near the end of a long roadtrip after getting in at 2:30am in Florida, as I stated. The 3rd period was expected. Saying there was no progress and to fire the coach is to throw any positive away from the game because they gave up 1 goal late in regulation.
Painting xGF at 35% in a broad stroke invalidates anything they did well and any context, which I think is disingenuous.
If they had won, would you be this impassioned? If the rest of the season hasn’t been so uninspired, would you be okay with stealing a point in Tampa, given the context I just provided? You’re a sane individual, so I think you would.
“Pickard the only reason it wasn’t over in regulation and any sane observer would say the same”
Posting it again because this was what hurt your feelings. You clearly can’t read well – this factual statement is supported by the fact that you are saying some BS about an argument nobody made. But that was literally the argument I made that so deeply offended you. Confusing to sane people like me. If you want to go on an unhinged rant with straw man arguments while claiming I’m the insane one, don’t agree with the argument I made in the first place.
What a sane person would have said was that you disagreed with me that this was a lack of progress, despite needing Pickard to win, and then bring facts. Your ”evidence” provided for this assertion was that “they gutted it out,” and “their first period was good.”
My arguments were that Pickard was the main difference because the chances ultimately were skewed heavily against us (which you agree with), they got owned in the final period (which you agree with).
I don’t really know what else to say here, other than your anger and resentment is misplaced. I suggest you read what was actually stated before making broad sweeping assertions while the losses are piling up and fans understandably want change
Id say ive never seen someone get offended over something they themself are doing but this is the internet, emotional regulation doesn’t exist.
If you had read my very first response to you, I said the words ‘Picks played great’. I can’t read it for you man.
I suggest you look up the meaning of strawman, it doesn’t mean what you think it means.
You brought 35% xGF, I gave you context. I can’t listen for you.
I hope your day gets better buddy, sounds like its a tough go over there.
I’m good, man. It’s you I’m worried about. Your lack of education and understanding has clearly made you frustrated.
You should probably look up straw man argument, because you were trying to use a straw man to deflect from the fact that you used one in the first place.
And it appears that the court of public opinion has sided with me on this one. So I hope whatever is bothering you is over because you’re a better contributor when you can make a principled argument.
And they have lost plenty on scheduled win nights. Sorry, no free passes anymore because B2B when you’re at the bottom of the standings
Watch the game as you please and others will do likewise. If you can’t stand the b2b heat then win the Caps game and you get some leash with a hard played Tampa loss. Lose them both and you shouldn’t be surprised to get the heat. 9-9-5 isn’t cutting it.
This is a measured, reasonable response. My belief is their game has turned positively over the last 2 games regardless of what happened previous. They didn’t win and that’s the point. A bounce in a Tampa game because Ros couldn’t score on an empty net is not coach firing material imo, but I understand patience is thin.
Short memories dont seem to recall Mike Smith and the turnaround in the new year, or the back to back horrible starts and cup runs.
We don’t like it, but I don’t understand the wailing when they played a solid, gritty road game.
Same coach that coached them to a 62% expected goal share the prior game against the Caps.
Given the Oilers were over 70% in the first period and 14% in the third one wonders if the 3rd in 4, 4th in 6, 5th in 8 all with travel factors in?
Losers always have excuses!
You cite an expected goal share in a game as reason there is no progress and the coach should be fired but completely ignore the dominant expected goal share the prior game.
Where did I say fire the coach. You always get pissy when you think someone has stated you said something you didn’t and yet here you are putting words in my mouth…Comical
Exactly. Of all the games to get upset at, I really dont think this or the Caps game are one of them. They actually looked competent.
Did they win either game.
As MacT said, you lose games at the end of a losing streak you shouldn’t. In this case, 3 games. It looks to me like the team has played competently these last 2, goalie aside. Better than the Carolina win.
I’m actually shocked they have the record they do given how poorly they’ve played. I think that bodes well for the future, as the team has a much longer recent established history of being good than bad.
1) The game is 3 periods long (and score effects don’t matter if it’s a a 1 goal lead, if again speaks to either poor strategy or poor play)
2) This team has not taken advantage of opponents with injuries and fatigue, so they don’t get the luxury of that excuse when the roles are reversed, especially when their record is worse than the Sharks, when every other team is lighting it up on a regular basis, and where the D core is made up of strong individual parts producing than far less than their collective sum.
3) I have admittedly not checked a segment by segment stretch on the metrics to see if the Oilers are turning the corner, but citing the Caps game in isolation is likely not the recent story.
The Edmonton Over-timers really do need to start closing out games in regulation time.
they are either getting smoked, or have to gut it out in OT.
23 games in, still at .500, and have played at least 2-3 more games than any other western team that matters.
this. is. not. good.
Minnesota, Seattle and Utah ahead of EDM in the wildcard race for the last spot with San Jose likely to pass us soon. What a mess.
Tough loss, but I am beyond frustrated with this teams refusal to actually take the body. Every time we carried the puck into tampas end ,their dmen took the body. We are the king of stick checking. We are still the softest team in the nhl. Until we learn that it is a physical sport we will not win. You cannot keep defending by swinging your stick with one hand and actually expect to be successful. When will we ever figure this out. We lost the game because of this on Paul’s goal with Mcdavid making a half hearted attempt to stick checking instead of leaning in and making it difficult to drive to the net. This team very seldom finishes any checks instead they do the fly by!End of rant!
Go cheer for the Panthers or the Bruins the Oil aren’t built that way so stop asking a tiger to change its stripes. They were excellent on the forecheck in the first
Wow they were good for one period out of three.Have we come to this that your actually going to be happy they did something for 1 period out of three.Using Florida and Boston is not a good argument for you. They actually win the Stanley Cup well we get participation ribbons.
Florida and Boston check alot. The Oilers don’t really. There is no argument here if you want checking cheer for a checking team cause these guys won’t until the playoffs.
Btw the Boston Bruins have less participation ribbons in the last 10 years than the Oil. They last won when i was in middle school.
McDavids next shift he pushed a Tampa player off the puck with force like he knew that’s what he should have tried to do the shift prior. Guaranteed he owns that. Oil looked better overall this game from goalie out. Hopefully this is the turning point of the season. Would be nice to come out flying against dirtbag- spits- Panthers.
How many times are we going to say this was the turning point after a loss? Honest question to you,why do you think this game will be the turning poin? We got outplayed an dominated the last 40 minutes. Just curious what you saw that would make you think this. And no excuse about b2b or 3 in four nights. TB was missing their top 3 defencemen. And yet we didn’t produce much offensively.
Better effort, again, but still way way too many mistakes.
Easily the most complete game this season. Bout f*ing time.
McDavid playing the most minutes per game of his career.
Coincidence he is also playing some of the worst D in his career?
Well they earned a Bettman … yada yada yada.
It was a better effort, but there are no moral wins at this point.
We had no answer for the 3rd period push from Tampa and as it went on, we were more spread out on breakouts. Play just kept coming back into our zone and the goal was inevitable. Disappointing.
It was scheduled loss night. Look at any team with a 3 in 4 on the road and they’re getting rolled by the 3rd. They almost held on. Tough one.
I believe that the term for back to back, third game in four nights is “a scheduled loss” because even professional athletes have an endurance limit.
Yes, they were hanging on in the third and almost made it. That’s the nature of a scheduled loss. TB is not chopped liver.
It may not be a mortal victory but î is a point when that is a decent result.
With the recent performances that was aa Picasso, no wait I don’t like Picasso, that was a Kris Kristofferson.
Positivity in the face of a tough stretch is easily more cathartic than Eyorism.
THAT, was a hell of a game.
Both of these things can be true. Yes, they were exhausted by the 3rd. McDavid had nothing left on the goal that tied it. But I didn’t like the 3rd – tired as they were – because of how spread out they were. Guys flying the zone too early hurt. Need to be better.
Playing recklessly is when you know you are at a disadvantage in energy is kind of opposite George
Dang. A bunch of guys needed that. On both sides. But I wish the oilers had pulled that one off for picks.
Still one of my favourite games I’ve watched this season. Even though I was worried for everyone’s safety like a concerned dad.
Talking crap about Vasilevski not so wise.
Of course he lets that in.
Ros how the hell did you not score that
Oilers are so creative at losing
Roslovic will never score again.
Roslovic cannot miss that. Absolutely blew it. Could have walked it into the damn net.
How did Roslovic not score on that empty net??
Oilers don’t really love to play just 60 minutes. They need extra work.
Great game. Low skill, high effort.
OT. Picks best game of the year by far. Can we get the 2 nd point????
Cale Makar mini dump rule sucks
To much defending, not enough attacking. Nurse getting picked helped, too.
That goal was 💯 on McDavid. The ole Oiler put your stick sort of there but don’t do anything hard to deter.
That looked offside. Surprised they didn’t challenge.
mcdavid cannot do it all; i dont know what kulak was doin
He can’t do it all but he leads by example and needs to be harder in defensive zone with how much he impacts the game.
He knows it!!
Big save by Vasilevski after a big one by Pickard
Was that not interference by Gourde?
Good to see Regula back on the ice after taking a puck in the face.
Best defensive game by Connor in years.
Lotta straight legs and reaching, out there. Grind it out, fellas. Find that little extra and finish this!
Forwards are still flying the zone as soon as a d-man gets possession – and maybe earlier. Need to be less aggressive and stay under the play to make sure pucks come out.
EDIT: And just like that, great back check by McDavid to prevent a 2 on 1.
Oilers hanging on now. Tampa really pressuring. Hopefully a chance for an odd man break and score.
Ekholm needs to remind the league he’s not to be messed with
Is he not to be messed with? He’s not exactly one known to chuck ’em.
Yeah I’m seeing the one hand on the stick all over now. Once you look for it, it’s everywhere
3rd period b2b after a 2:30am plane land. Holllllllllld on boys. Dig deep.
Brutal officiating. Hold and slew foot on Draisaitl, no call
Looks like the whistles have been holstered for balance of this game.
Plays like that injure players, long term injuries. Like SS says, we’re taking some huge hits this year.
Obvious missed Tampa penalty on Leon. WTF??
some pansy defending nobody clears the net in any form
Wow Picks with the diving save!!!! Superman!
Stauffer saying Skinner might still have a long shot chance at Olympic Team. Wow has he been actually watching Oiler games this season????
Have a look at the 4-Nations goaltenders’ stats this season.
I reserve the right to be wrong but if Stu is on the ice for Team Canada, team is in trouble……
I mean, there are what, 6 Canadian starting goaltenders in the league?
Logan Thompson, Darcy Kuemper, Wedgewood among starting goalies with strong goals saved above expected per 60, all in the top 10.
D’Accord is still better than Skinner in all metrics if you are not considering these clearl top 3. Binnington has solidly been the worst, but team Canada likely brings him back because they value nostalgia and his “X factor.”
That would make Skinner the least likely Canadian goalie to make the team.
He didn’t say which team… with that ‘stache, Stuarto Skinellini could get emergency Italian citizenship!
Stauff is dreaming of course. However, when the Oilers play good defence in front of him, Skinner can have some good results. Too much inconsistency from the team this season has torp’d some Olympic dreams for sure
Could really use a PPG here.
Time to extend this lead.
Jake being a literal wall… man, that’s gotta hurt.
It seems the Oilers are NOT the only team that turns the puck over in its own zone.
It also seems the Oilers do not have Andrei V. in net…..
Lightening’s top 4 Dmen are out.
Regula owes the goalie dinner. Terrible pinch.
Strong 1-on-1 defending on the rush of Kucherov by Walman there.
Shoot that Puck Leo!
He didn’t hear you the first time. You might need to say that louder.
Savoie is a very smart player. I love it
Huge clear by Bouch at the end of that long PK shift.