-from the book On The Clock by Allan Mitchell
Among the things I wrote about in the Oilers draft book was the idea that drafting skill at every turn is the play. Since we’re talking about the Oilers in a way that invites change (if this rig doesn’t correct and roll on down the highway in the next 20 games there’s going to be more hell than a little bit) I thought it would be a good time to review the 2017-20 drafts to see how they shine.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0
- Road: Blues, Stars (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-1-1
- At home to: Avalanche, Blue Jackets (1-0-1) Actual 1-1-0
- On the road to: Flyers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes (1-2-0) Actual 2-1-0
- On the road to: Sabres, Capitals, Lightning, Panthers (1-2-1) Actual 1-2-1
- At home to: Stars (1-0-0) 0-1-0
- On the road to: Kraken (0-0-1)
- Expected Record: 6-5-3, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record 5-6-2, 12 points in 13 games
- Season Record: 10-10-5, 25 points in 25 games
For all the rage in the cage, a win tonight puts these Oilers one point away from my November projection. This was always going to be a tough month, and injuries, wobbly goalering and defensive miscues made it all the more challenging. Kris Knoblauch has been able to find a template for winning in his first two seasons, but the epiphany for this year’s model has so far eluded him.
2017-20 OILERS DRAFTS
Best pick: Evan Bouchard. He is an impact player and I have him as the third most valuable asset in the organization. Considering he’s on a team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, that’s a very nice neighbourhood.
Worst pick: That’s a tough one, because all four first-round picks (Kailer Yamamoto, Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway) worked out well to very well. I’ll go with Raphael Lavoie, as he was an early second-round selection who did not cash. The fact all four first rounders made it is a credit to Bob Green (Yamamoto, Bouchard, Broberg) and Tyler Wright (Holloway).
Best pick outside the first round: There three good players here. Ryan McLeod (second round), Stuart Skinner (third round) and Mike Kesselring (sixth round) represent good to excellent value where they were chosen. Three depth picks in four years is value. In the four seasons we’re looking at today, Edmonton gathered seven NHL players. That’s almost two per season.
Best pick after No. 100: Kesselring is a substantial talent and the Oilers landed him at No. 146 overall. He was kind of obscure on draft day in a Jeff Petry way, and looks to be on his way to a similar career.
Success in “projecting.” I like to look at a draft in sections. First-round picks, especially early ones, have a much higher expectation. A player like Kesselring requires projecting him years down the road and doing it successfully. Any swinging Dick can draft first overall, but getting value late is a combination of projecting and luck. Kesselring was both.
What style of player was prioritized? Bob Green (2015-19) had skill near the top of the list. Evan Bouchard was an example, but Ryan McLeod was, too. Tyler Wright, in my opinion, drafted athletes (Dylan Holloway) with the idea they would develop as hockey players. I think Green’s style was a little more consensus driven than Wright’s but that’s obviously a guess.
Are there any prospects from 2017-20 who could still make it? Maxim Berezkin appeared NHL-ready for a couple of seasons, but has regressed mightily this season. A Tyler Wright selection, Berezkin expressed interest in coming over next season, sometimes that impacts handling on the home team across the water.
Overall assessment: The Oilers did well in these drafts. Seven men are NHL players, and Bouchard, Broberg, Holloway, Kesselring, McLeod qre all productive players helping their teams in prominent roles. Skinner is struggling but has already covered his draft bet, and I suspect he’s got one or two chances after this to continue his career. Yamamoto has fought injury during his career, and would be the outlier in terms of impacting his team in 2025-26. I know Oilers fans are rarely happy with the scouts, pro or amateur, but these drafts delivered enough talent for the scouts to getting a solid grade.
The fact that Bouchard and Skinner are the only ones in Edmonton is something you’ll have to take up with management. Matt Savoie was the return in the McLeod deal, so all was not lost in the flood. The Broberg-Holloway losses will be remembered for a long, long time.
Condors and Tomkins leak a couple late in garbage time then Samanski with a steal and sets up Jones for the ENG.
7-4 final.
Summarizing!
As Elton John might sing, Saturday night’s alright for lighting. (Lamps, that is.)
Wakely netted his first NCAA hatty to give him 5 goals on the year. Also went 8-of-13 on the dot.
Lafreniere extended his point streak to 12 with his 18th and 19th goals plus a helper. He was once again named 3rd star.
Park struck for his 5th goal of the campaign.
Berry and Barnett were held soupless.
Ingram injury was on the fall behind the net on goal 1, not the latter breakaway goal play.
He hit his head, being checked out.
Ingram goes down the tunnel after that goal with the head athletic trainer……
Condors give that one right back – quick strike breakaway goal.
Have a night Quinn Hutson.
PP1 ripping it around, the Hutson one-timer is stopped and he makes a Leon like backhand pass cross to Griffith who one-time it in to the yawning net.
Leppanen with the other assist.
6-1
Ingram goes to play the dump in, falls/trips and the shoutout is broken with the puck in to that empty net.
Tough for Ingram to lose the shutout that way but he still “hasn’t been beat by a puck”.
Samanski wins the PP face-off clean, Carfagna walks the line towards the middle, passes back to the top of the circles and Jarventie with an absolute BOMB for 5-0.
The Pitlick brothers go to work on a tenuous forecheck, Jarventies gets the puck cross-crease and Rhett Pitlick buries it for 4-0.
Is it time to call up Quinn Hutson at the next opportunity? The kid is an older prospect and is on fire. If not now, when?
Sure is. We’ll see how closely they’re watching.
If coach will play him in the top 6 and move Mang down then, yes, but would he do that.
I guess third line is OK too if Nuge is the center.
They would need to move someone off the roster (could be Tomaskek) and someone out of the lineup (could be Lazar, Fredie can center the 4th line).
He has 19 points on the season, but 16 have come in his last 8 games. En fuego!
Thanks for all the Condors updates, OP. Muchly appreciated!
I can make an equal case for Hutson and Jarventie.
Of note, Hutson gets to play with Howard and Samanski and PP1 and Jarvenite plays with Marjala and gets PP2.
What a transition/rush goal. Brown from behind the net, outlets to Hutson, quick pass the middle, strong transition and zone entry by Samanski, pushes the D back, drops to Hutson who buries his second.
3-0
Condors move it around on the PP – Hutson’s shot is blocked but it goes right back to him and the quick release and its in.
2-0.
Griffith with one assist and Leppanen with the other.
Amazing O-zone shift for the Condors – started with a fantastic blue line keep by Hutson – 30 seconds later, Carfanga with a bomb off the back-boards and Griffith one-times home the reound for the 1-0 lead and the Bears go flying.
Hoping for Ingram to have a great game tonight.
He had been playing well after his 10-day re-set and, truth bet told, after the two bad one’s he leaked first period last game, we was very good the rest of the way.
It would be ideal if he could go on a bit of a run and they could make the Ingram for Pickard swap as the “first try move”. Ingram does have the pedigree, history and potential to be a legit 1B paired with Skinner. Who knows if his prior top game will be available but, if it is, that’s the “optimal” solution.
One game at a time.
Wasn’t online much today so haven’t read through the thread. So excuse if I repeat a previous thought from anyone on here.
I watched only the third period of today’s game due to my regular Saturday chemo session.
It was great to see the team fighting (literally) for each other. Henrique went out of his way to block a shot at 4-0 to help preserve the shutout. This is just a small example.
In the game and this past week, I have been so impressed with the character of Stu Skinner. This young man is mature well beyond his years. His genuine, non-reactive response to Matheson and better still, his and his teams response on the ice spoke volumes. I will always root for that young man to have great success, whether with the Oil or another team. I have a 17 year old son and if he could grow up to be like Skinner I would be so proud and impressed. So much mud slinging from all directions and your response (Skinners) is to stay the course. Be true to who you are and what you believe and don’t speak poorly or direct the abuse elsewhere. It’s a rare quality in this day and age. This guy is a leader. His words and response, I guarantee, the team is rallying around him. Matheson and Marchment may just have sparked a turning point for this team.
Very classy and thought provoking post. Wishing you only the best during your struggle … and afterword too.
Appreciate your words of support.
“This guy is a leader.”
Indeed.
Thank you for your words.
May your journey go well.
🙏
Hope your treatments go well and you win the battle. I have always appreciated your comments and felt for the most part we were like minded in our thoughts on the team we root for. Stay strong!
I agree 100%.
I too am a big fan of Skinner, but I’ve also beat the drum that we need to move on from him for his sake and ours(Oilers) because I felt that ship had sailed for both sides and a clean slate would be good for all. And really, that still might be the case, but say what you will about him, he’s definitely handled himself with class and humility when many others might have withered.
Maybe we’ve all turned a corner, onward and upward!
Thought the difference today for Stu was his rebound control, a lot of pucks seemed to be sticking to him.
14 hits through 25:23 of total ice time for clattenburg. 33 hits per 60
Clattenburg is a breath of fresh air for a team desperately in need of one. Clearly, he does not see the AHL in his future. Good for him.
Another impressive young man. I love watching him play and following his story. Certainly seems like he has no desire to be back in AHL games!
Great game all around. Slowly digging out of that goal differential hole.
Who was giving Hyman shit earlier today for a slow return from missing months with a brutal hand injury? More play with McDavid, less with Frederic, please, and ongoing PP1. I have also heard a lot of chat that this team is too old, which I disagree with as being this team’s problem, and RNH and Hyman both showed today that they very much still know what to do to be successful.
Interested to see what LTs December prediction is going to be. We have been fooled by this team before, but 2 well earned regulation wins in their last 3 games (after 4 in their first 23) is perhaps the most encouraging thing. I would really like to see them replicate that game against an upper echelon team like Minnesota, even if it doesn’t end in a win.
December sees Edmonton playing 9 of 15 games against teams out of a playoff position (2 of which involving tanking Cgy), and of the remaining 6, Montreal and Vegas have been struggling, Pittsburgh has been more average of late, and Seattle is clearly beatable. The 2 most difficult should be against Minnesota. A bubble playoff team would be expected, in my estimation, to get 8-5-2, and a strong showing would be 9-4-2. Hoping for another Oilers December
17:39 toi for McDavid. Love to see it.
Just a brutal day to be a hater.
5th regulation win of the season. We are back baby!
I’m here for Skinner, and the team, to repeat against a good, stingy and hot Wild team on Tuesday!
The Wild are in fact Wild. They are hot, but like the teams with young players rising they are not consistent. They are above average in Power Wins with 6, and also in Clear losses with 5. Since Nov 1 they have the 2nd lowest 5v5 GA, but a .956 SV%. I think it’s goalies, better get some traffic
Hey, Hey, Hey Skinner 1st star with a shutout. Don’t have to trade him anymore.
If Gretzky can get traded so can Skinner. Best time to trade a player your not resigning is when’s he’s on a absolute heater.
Really? Maybe the first and last time I hear a comparison of Skinner and Gretzky anything ever. Hopefully.
I’m more along the lines that Gretzky was sold. I never call it a trade, but that’s me lol
One game isn’t a heater.
But to be clear, I am not down on Skinner. I don’t think he is the problem
As complete a game as I’ve seen since last year.
Stu was locked. Drai was mad. Bouch was playing two way hockey. Nuge completes us.
Effort was there from start to finish.
Shout out to Clatt for doing the job other vets are paid big money to do. Not just the fight but the physical response.
Clatternburg will continue playing.
I would have him ahead of Lazar on the depth chart right now (Frederic can center the fourth line) – not that any of Philp, Kap or Rosolovic are coming back any time soon.
Lazar is a center.
and, in my post, I referred to Frederic playing center on that 4th line.
Nice to see you finally coming around on Clattenburg!
I do stand by my opinion on Clatt which was based on watching all of his games with the Condors.
As of right now, his issues with puck skills (which include making required plays in the neutral zone and near each blue line) have not hurt the team but, of course, he’s played 6 minutes in two of the games (and 13 minutes in the blowout loss).
I now have no doubt he’ll play in this league and will be a real NHL player but I’m sure he’s got plenty of AHL games left in him
Roslovic and Kap are each out weeks and Philp is on LTIR (no time line given) so he’s got some runway here and he’s earning his nightly lineup spot right about now.
Business like! #PlayLaBambaBaby
maybe a team can play a full 60? That was dominant from the first shift until the last but for penalties.
Oilers penalties not a negative in anyway for this game. I’m not saying taking a lot of penalties is a good long-term strategy in anyway. But to discount all penalties as a negative doesn’t make sense to me, because they clearly did not tip the scales enough to prevent a win, and maybe focused the defensive play of the team.
My point was that they weren’t dominating when they were on the PK (although the PK did dominate the PP) but I would say careless sticks to the face and two many men are indeed negatives.
An early PP goal (or one on that 5 on 3) may have changed the game.
Good on the PK.
What I took from it and what I hope the team takes is, don’t be worried about a penalty if you need to stand up to the likes or Marchment or anybody else. Take the penalty but make it worthwhile.
Oilers hiring Matheson to be after Skinner 24/7 after that one?
Nurse had the same huge game after being grilled a few years ago in the Playoffs.
Why do these guys have to be publicly called out to play one game at their potential?
Nurse was lights-out the game after being called out.
Now he just plays like somebody has turned his lights out.
Atta boy Stu!
Great team game!
Drai/Podz a dominant due tonight – Mangiapane in a lot of photos, that is something, Jack would have been nice there tonight!
Good job Rico.
Don’t tell me they’ve “given up on Stu” – I’m positive his teammates will be thrilled if they can finish this off.
How do you not take that fight down 4-1?
Because it’s Marchment.
I was coaching hockey, who challenged?
That time, it was Nurse.
Thanks OP
Good job, Regs!!! Love seeing non fighters throw down! Make those supposed tough guys feel the shame of having you fight instead of them!
Good recovery from Regula there – worry for the kid not long removed from that concussion.
I like Knob going to McDavid and Drai after even this kill – don’t take the foot off.
Bouchard has a had a sublime game.
He created goal 1 and was a huge part of the 5 on 3 kill (and all the PK kills)>
Clatt knows the role. Now was time for some payback.
Good job, kid. Show the vets how it’s done
Great job Clatt – a bang (clean) and a decision!
Roughing? For the clean hit?
I was wondering the same thing. Bizarre.
Seattle looks like a team that finishes the game watching the other team celebrating a victory more often then they do, which would align with the 11 wins in 23 games played now 24.
Nuge the PP wizard with a grand return.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: Mr. Oiler.
My favourite of Oiler of all time. A lock for the Oiler Hall of Fame, and I hope the team considers retiring 93 when its all said and done, although they would have to waive the hockey HOF rule.
A company man, through and through. He stuck through the decade of darkness, and will soon become the Oilers all-time games played leader. A career built on one of the sharpest hockey minds to ever wear blue and orange.
How many “third assists” or non-scoresheet plays does he make per game that are essential to Connor or Leon’s success, in addition to his goal-scoring touch?
A PPG, an absolutely clinical 3-on-5 kill, and a passion so rarely seen this year.
Over a point per game this year. Had he not missed the games he just did, I think he would have had a chance to make the Olympic team. I still think he has an outside shot.
Smyth was my favorite heart and soul player from my youth. Hyman is clearly this generation’s version of this and will remain a fan favorite, even if he doesn’t extend and remain productive beyond this contract.
Eberle and Hall were endearing to me with their years of exemplary service, especially without being able to bear the fruits of their labour and misery that led to Connor and Leon.
Nuge has all of the above, though, plus all the cerebral yeomans work, and anyone who doesn’t love this dude doesn’t know hockey and has a heart of stone 🙂
I haven’t looked at the numbers but the 2nd line has been all over the offensive lone all night – Drai and Podz have been awesome in the o-zone and, while Mangiapane is a black hole and a play killer, he’s been around the puck in scoring areas (can’t do shit when in the spot but still).
If the Oilers ever get all their forwards healthy, Mangi should be in the press box. Has done absolutely nothing with the ice time given. Disappointing signing for sure.
I bet Janmark never washes his gloves. Cuz guys go nuts when he face washes them…
BOOM!!! Connor shoots!!! Let the good times roll!!!
You can’t win with goaltending like Joey D. is providing this afternoon.
Its nice to have the better goaltender in the game – by a large margin.
With all due respect to Edmonton’s effort and play tonight, if this is the real Seattle, Seattle is not a real contender.
They aren’t an offensive dynamo – true. But the way the Oilers are playing tonight is repeatable. Have seen 2 maybe 3 breakdowns (no team is ever going to play a perfect game). They’re breaking the puck out better and getting back on defense. Far better effort tonight…so far.
Not to mention, having a Ryan Nugent Hopkins at 3C is a luxury very few teams have.
Seattle had a .609 points percentage coming in to the game, 3rd in the division and in the top half to the league.
Seattle aren’t a great team but are a solid and structured team that can beat any team if they aren’t on their game.
Full kudos to the Oilers – they have matched Seattles effort, maybe surpassed it, being first to most pucks, winning battles, etc. – add that to better skill and you get 3-0 despite some careless penalties.
Them and Anaheim are frauds. Dostal may give them a Calgary season to cover it but the PDO pony is heavily in their favour right now. Over a season they should fade.
This again?
There is nothing unsustainable about Anaheim.
Dostal has a save percentage of .904 and a GAA of 2.81.
Have you forgotten what a competent goaltender looks like?
“This again” should be on your headstone.
Wanna bet? Just kidding, i know you dont follow through.
BOOM!!! Hyman scores with his butt towards the goalie!!! All is right with the Oil, Tonight!!
Nugent-Hopkins is over a point per game on the season….
Stew is locked in. Nobody talk to him.
Best goalie in this game!
Breakaway save on a 40 goal scorer with two minutes left in the period to keep a 2-goal lead – is that a big save?
Nuge will be one of the best 3Cs in the league. Will be even better when Jack is back and he’s got Mangiapane or Kap on his right wing.
Before HH posts a lists of all the better 3Cs in the league, please ensure to note the post say “one of the best”.
I prefer the comparison to Landeskog, where both have had great careers, but RNHs versatility, durability, and consistency has been a touch better. And admitting that would be impossible for a troll who feeds on the success of teams he has no real affinity for, so long as they aren’t the Oilers