The Edmonton Oilers played a strong, repeatable game on Saturday afternoon in Seattle, Washington. I have been expecting that game for some time, and a winning streak to follow. Now, the Minnesota Wild are all rocknrolla now, so we’ll see if a long December brings us reason to believe this year will be better than the last.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: Chicago (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0
- Road: Blues, Stars (Expected 1-1-0) Actual 0-1-1
- At home to: Avalanche, Blue Jackets (1-0-1) Actual 1-1-0
- On the road to: Flyers, Blue Jackets, Hurricanes (1-2-0) Actual 2-1-0
- On the road to: Sabres, Capitals, Lightning, Panthers (1-2-1) Actual 1-2-1
- At home to: Stars (1-0-0) 0-1-0
- On the road to: Kraken (0-0-1)
- Expected Record: 6-5-3, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
- Season Record: 11-10-5, 27 points in 26 games
My prediction for the month was close enough for jazz, and if you’d told me at the beginning of the month the Oilers would be a point-per-game I’d say that’s a little alright. Witnessing it was less than enjoyable. Suspect it’s time to call on the Father, Son and Holy Spigot and maybe we saw the genesis in emerald city.
- Mangiapane-Leon-Podkolzin: 10:38, 11-5 shots, 1-0 goals, 81X, 2-1 HDSC
- Henrique-Nuge-Janmark: 9:16, 4-3 shots, 58X, 1-2 HDSC
- Savoie-97-Hyman: 7:13, 2-2 shots, 1-0 goals, 30X, 2-5 HDSC
- Clattenburg-Lazar-Frederic: 4:57, 0-2 shots, 53X, 1-0 HDSC
- Hyman-97-Leon: 4:39, zero shots!, 100X
The Draisaitl line was impressive and that’s encouraging. Leon with Podkolzin is trustworthy, but if Mangiapane finds a church home of his own on the second line, music! Leon is at 2.08 pts-60 five-on-five, Podkolzin 1.63 and Mangiapane 1.23. Need that Mangiapane number matriculating toward two.
Henrique-Nuge-Janmark had a solid game, Nuge was glorious in his passing and had a nice quick release on the goal. He is at 1.61 pts-60 five-on-five, Janmark is 1.14 and Henrique 0.99 so far this year. Work to do.
Savoie-McDavid-Hyman scored a goal and had flashes. If this line turned out it could be thrilling, because Savoie has real talent and that young man hunts pucks well. If he and Hyman turn over enough pucks, McDavid could score an impressive number this season. McDavid seems less than Himself these days, but NHL Edge has him in the 99th percentile in skating. You know, even a slight downbeat in stickhandling or vision could impact his overall brilliance. Any road, McDavid is 1.99 pts-60 at five-on-five, Savoie is .60 and Hyman is 1.57. Young Savoie will find the range.
Young Connor Clattenburg once again made an impression. He drew a penalty, delivered a high-danger chance and played the rugged style that can be valuable if the other parts of the game contribute to winning. I’m not going to list them, but Clattenburg is miles more effective than some of the Oilers forwards who are playing more minutes.
- Kulak-Emberson 14:48, 9-4 shots, 1-0 goals, 55 X, 2-3 HDSC
- Ekholm-Bouchard 14:45, 5-6 shots, 1-0 goals, 49 X, 5-4 HDSC
- Nurse-Regula 12:40, 7-3 sots, 69X, 2-1 HDSC
I thought they all played well. Give the forwards credit, lots of effort on the backcheck and the gapping was less alarming than in previous games. I think those days of practice helped and maybe this team found a repeatable formula. That’s exactly what Knoblauch accomplished in previous Novembers, maybe he just found it later this time. Stuart Skinner got the shutout, played well while also being tested only a few times (six HDSC). A terrific win by the Oilers with good news in every part of the game. Now, get back, Jack, and do it again. December beckons.
BAKERSFIELD
The story among the forwards is the Howard-Samanski-Hutson line. They are pushing the river all the way to sea now and it’s a pleasure to watch. I’ll have an article up at The Athletic later today on it, will link in comments. Howard’s arrival coincided with an enormous performance spike for the entire line. Credit Colin Chaulk and his coaches, these forwards have real chemistry. Roby Jarventie is hot again after a cold spell, with Viljami Marjala now a little shy offensively. Stan Bowman signed some interesting players and that’s a fact.
Damien Carfagna had a good night for the Condors on Saturday, he’s the guy you want moving up this list. Josh Brown is the team’s best defenseman, and that is reflected in these numbers. Luke Prokop and RIley Stillman are playing major minutes, you can tell because of their even strength goal totals. Atro Leppanen is on pace to give up 80 even strength goals this season.
Connor Ingram hit his head during an awkward play that resulted in the first GA last night, that’s some damn bad luck. He was playing well until things fell apart in a hurry. No word yet on extent of the injury (that I have seen).
Edmonton Oilers prospect Ike Howard lighting up AHL on a powerhouse line
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6847703/2025/11/30/edmonton-oilers-prospect-ike-howard-ahl-stats/
Savoie’s JFresh card has him in trouble.
The Oilers have exercised tremendous patience trying to accelerate his development.
This won’t be popular, but I think he’s in trouble as a prospect unless he finds a way to really improve his shot.
I have no time for stats like that. WAR etc
There is no way to verify
Just like you can’t do a reliable Pearson on two or six data points
WAR isn’t meant to predict the future, but it does a decent job of providing a snapshot of how a player is actually performing.
It tells us right now. Savoie is performing below replacement level. The Oilers are trying to force feed him NHL minutes to accelerate his development.
Having Savoie in the lineup isn’t the deployment of a cup contender, but a rebuilding team.
If you don’t like WAR, there are plenty of other stats.
I don’t think he is in trouble as a prospect. Too early to tell, 31 NHL games. His offense looks shy, however he is often in the right spot at both ends of the ice. Why he is showing incredibly well on the PK. He will certainly be a useful player, likely won’t have massive numbers.
Summarizing!
Lewandowski collected his 8th goal of the season and tacked on an apple while also recording 5 SOG.
Prospecting takes a break until Wodin’s Day.
Just finished watching Dallas dismantle the Senators 6-1 in which Jason Robertson had 1G 2A, Mikko Rantanen, had 3A but most notably Wyatt Johnston scored a hat trick including 2 PPG as well as an assist.
The Dallas broadcasters noted that Dallas now has the #1PP in the league at over 33% with Johnson leading the league with 12 PP goals, 5 more than the next closest player.
They drew a connection between Glen Gulatzan now coaching the Stars.
Seems he might be a PP whisperer.
Sportsnet 2021 predraft final list:
15. Wallstedt G 6’3″ (20 MIN)
-> EDM traded it to MIN and recieved
3rd round
->
22. Borgault RW/C 5’11 (22 EDM)
30. Wyatt johnston 6’1″ (23 Dallas)
-> sportsnet: ” might be the sleeper of the 1st round”
I’d say he definitely appears to be sleeper. Didn’t play in draft year. What a monster steal of a gamble that turjed into.
Dallas has done that over and over and over.
Just happy that I traded for Johnston in my (keeper) pool last year.
Small guy from the zoomy Q, tall RSC speed and skill missed the draft year. What’s riskier?
Depends on the quality of the scouts and analytics team you use obviously?
I guess followed by ensuring development strategy is given cosistency it requires to assess these kids properly and give them the guidance threy recievr in order to maximize their opportunities as well?
Fantastic! Except playoffs are won 5v5
I recall these posts from last season – citing these amazing performances for Dallas and from Vegas, passive aggressive opinions on how they were in such a higher tier than the Oilers.
I also recall the Oilers dominating both teams to quick series wins.
Samuel Jonsson back healthy and dressed today but backing up Nathanial Day who has stopped 11 of 12 shots as the Komets lead 5-1 late in the third.
Yes, that’s right 12 shots given up late in the game – that’s somewhat par for the course for the Komets (well, not quite that low but generally quite low).
Great game yesterday. Nice to see there were no passengers. More please.
After watching pretty much every Oilers game for the past 3+ years (maybe it has been more – thanks to modern technology), and most of what was available to watch in the 20+ years prior to that, this year’s Oilers have made me think deeply about deployment of personnel towards a balanced forward group that can play against any team and come out on top. I believe we have the most skilled forward group in the NHL.
My comments are based on my eye test (4 decades worth), mixed with thoughts from reading the many excellent commentary by folks on this blog (not the least of which is the author) as well as the tremendous work by the writers at the EJ. Deployment has been an issue this year for KK, as he seems to have run out of magic beans. I also know that this site talked for years about unicorns, a grossly outscoring 3rd line. I think that can absolutely work for regular season play, but not in the playoffs, which is a very different game (shame on the NHL). I’ll point to the past 6-8 years champions as supporting evidence.
I would really like to see a true top 6 (predominate requirement: skill), a dedicated checking/shutdown 3rd line, and a 4th line that can also play a rough but solid brand of hockey. I think that is what is needed to win Stanley (from the forward group, which is where my attention rests at the moment). This is my vision of balance amongst the forward group. A “defense first” philosophy throughout the entire lineup must also be maintained.
I want to see a team that can roll out 2 lines playing excellent, solid hockey, with the skill to pot more goals than the other team (stop trying to pass the puck into the net, just play normal hockey and let your skill be the difference, why up your own difficulty). I want to see a 3rd line that can saw off other teams’ best lines (at home) and win the goal share (on the road). I want to see a fourth line that can intimidate and push around the other team while not leaking GA.
I think skill needs to play with skill. Taking a bottom six forward, like Frederic or Podkolzin, and playing them in a top 6 role, diminishes their strengths, to the detriment of the team. That’s not to say that in pinch, in a temporary assignment, moving guys up here and there is a bad idea, it can create a lot of flexibility for the coach, keep guys accountable, and offers opportunity for players to develop into that kind of a role, should they have the chops to do so.
These are the buckets I see, and what I would like to see in the forward lines:
Philp, Lazar, Howard, Tomasek – designated call ups/injury replacements or trade bait. I think all of these players are NHL quality. Tomasek and Howard have the chops to be in a top 6 role, while Philp and Lazar, bottom 6. You gotta know what you have, and I think we have a pretty good idea about this group of forwards (the strength of each player). Play the players to their strengths, put them in positions and give them roles that match their skill set, so that both team and player have the best chance of success.
Lots of posters I respect, like Godot, are chiming in that it’s not the goaltending, it’s team defense that’s the problem.
First, a 4 percent delta between the Oilers and league-average save percentage is beyond anything predicted even if Edmonton had the worst defense in the league. One percent might be the outer limit there.
Edmonton xGA/60 Rank
No evidence they’re giving up higher-quality chances.
Lastly, look:
The Oilers’ save percentage is poor across high-, medium-, and low-danger shot types, which is not what you’d expect if anything other than goaltending were the culprit.
Yeah. Goaltending is obviously a problem.
D is also a problem but you don’t achieve league worst 5v5 sv% without a goalie problem.
The distribution is leptocurtic, not normal, and one has to view the distribution as multivariable or multidimensional.
Why do the Oilers break more goaltenders than other organizations?
Cam Talbot was very good. The Oilers broke him with 73 and 67 starts in back-to-back seasons. He didn’t have a competent back up.
The Oilers haven’t been a very buttoned-drown defensive team since McTavish was behind the bench.
The Talbot acquisition was the template; but in spite of that, they mostly shop in the brand-name aging out goalie aisle.
More picks for younger, emerging blocked goalies please.
Classic Oilers. They acquire Talbot for peanuts, he’s in his prime age, gives them the best goaltending they’ve had since Robison and the takeaway somehow becomes: ‘Let’s never try that again.
Cam Talbot’s backups were Lauren Brossoit and Anthony Stolarz, who went on to perform admirably elsewhere, and Koskinen, who was a fine goaltender somewhere between a 1B and a competent backup.
73 games followed by having twins…..
As a father of 4 kids born in 5.5 years, no twins, not much money, I don’t have a lot of sympathy for millionaires sewering their careers by having kids. Each to their own, I don’t see why that would affect anything necessarily.
They can sleep if they want to, can hire a nanny if they don’t want to do night child care (which I had to given my wife was run off her feet) and we had no close family to help, and yes I had some groggy days running our business. Many
But my livelihood could handle that. They have options if they choose to take them
I will always take posts that diminish the impact of having children due to the economic status of the players with a large grain of salt.
Its essentially akin to saying they have the money to do as little parenting as possible.
They do.
They do but that does not equate to a actually doing as little partnering as possible.
I am also sure that many professional athlete fathers also do not want to be an absence father (and husband) for 6-9 months of the season.
They are also away from the home life “pressure cooker” literally half the time between October and April.
And, of course, many don’t have to report for their regular work for age about 4 months a year.
Considering they have the income sufficient that their spouses don’t have to work unless they choose to and they have the resources to hire any required help, fatherhood for a professional hockey player couldn’t be easier.
— Also father of 4! While there is no doubt that that many kids does mean challenges it’s about how each family reacts and governs themselves
— Roger Federer also father of 4 famously didn’t travel with his kids to majors for a bunch of years (then he did).
— Agree – there is no “excuse” for a well paid professional athlete to be tired or waking up in the middle of the night of game day to change diapers etc. They do have more resources (and are in the road half the season)
— Normal people with kids don’t get to use “I’m tired”. Narratives that a professional athlete should is their loss
Holloway had several injuries impeding his early career growth. Usually small forwards need to show early if they are going to be consistent 20 goal scorers. I would say the upside on Savoie stock is gradually going down. Hopefully he figures it out and peaks come playoff time. Of his 3 goals 1 was a empty netter one was off the body deflection. He needs to start driving the net more and getting shots on net to justify top 6 minutes.
Our rollercoaster goaltending with Skinner nearly cost us the series rd 1 against the Kings, but was saved by my man, Cal Pickard.
Skinner’s play WON us a conference final series TWICE, against one of the leagues best young goalies, the cost us in the final TWICE, against one of the leagues best veteran goalies.
Utter voodoo.
But your point is spot on: even if the Oilers goaltending has been at times good to very good, it is rarely so and is never great.
Skinner should be in year 4 of his apprenticeship as an NHL backup, but instead he’s played 179 regular season and 50 playoff games.
I would love to keep Skinner as a backup, but so far the ceiling isn’t high enough to backstop 97 and 29 in their primes. But whose is?
Stuart Skinner wasn’t very good in the first two games against LA but the team was playing October/November 2025 level defence as a group.
Pickard was every bit as bad as Skinner in game 3 and gave up an awful backbreaking goal at a terrible time – the Oilers outscored his goaltending and then, after that, they buckled the hell down for the next 6-7 games and outscored some extremely “meh” tending by Pickard. Pickard has one excellent game in that run and did just enough to win in the others as the Oiler starting dominating play. He did make some “big saves” but leaked medium and low danger goals each game (except one).
Kudos on Picard for getting the Ws.
The Edmonton Oilers players LOVE Cal Pickard because he has come up big for them in big moments over the last two playoff runs.
At that time of year it’s not how many saves you make, but WHEN you make them.
Perhaps you’re lacking to understand the emotional importance to the team of Pickard’s heroics. He was their last chance to succeed and he came through.
True, aspects of his performance weren’t great, but you’re wrong to belabour the point because it undervalues the most important number of Pickard’s stat line from last season: The 7-1 playoff W-L record.
All that said, I believe it’s time to replace Cal. Emotions aside, the bar needs to be raised for the team’s sake, no different than when Barrie had to be exited to make room for Ekholm.
Lets not forget, he let in an absolutely horrendous goal at a horrible time in game 3, right after the Oilers had scored 2 to tie the game late in the 2nd that quashed all the momentum and put the team behind – the Oilers outscored his bad goaltending.
I give the player kudos and credit for helping the team to wins. I will not over-state his play and certainly would stop well shot of using the word “heroics” which, for me, shows the exaggeration of your position quite plainly.
One post, in response to an opinion I disagreed with is belabouring?
Since around March I’ve championed Pickard on this blog due to his track record of delivering quality starts. I suggested he was the org’s best goalie going into the playoffs.
Folks would comment on the quality of opponent, but as the season wore on and Pickard earned more starts, he won games against Vegas, Carolina, and LA, outplaying Skinner overall. This continued into the playoffs.
The best thing about Pickard is that after toiling in the minors for 5 seasons he comes and plays his ass off and wins a playoff series. He’s far from a perfect goaltender, but there’s a special place in Oilers lore for goalies who win in the playoffs, like Cujo, Roloson, or Talbot. Calvin Pickard is on that list. On merit.
YOU have repeatedly on this blog contested my appreciation for Pickard, either citing the QoC, the sv%, or the improved play of the team in front of him. It sucks for you that you can’t acknowledge, “yeah that guy was briefly and improbably awesome, and his 7-1 playoff record was an unimaginable run of timely goaltending to help this team win their division.”
Its a strange satisfaction you must derive from your penchant to critique.
He had better traditional numbers than Skinner in the regular season. He also had the 3rd easiest “environment” of any goalie in the regular season last year – Skinner, middle of the pack
Pickard did not outplay Skinner in the playoffs – he ended up with worst numbers than Skinner and those numbers include Skinner’s first two games when the Oilers were absolutely horrid in front of him
The best thing about Pickard is that after toiling in the minors for 5 seasons he comes and plays his ass off and wins a playoff series. He’s far from a perfect goaltender, but there’s a special place in Oilers lore for goalies who win in the playoffs, like Cujo, Roloson, or Talbot. Calvin Pickard is on that list. On merit.
I commend him for his wins and will never take that away from him. I hope this doesn’t imply that Skinner doesn’t also “play his ass off”. Of note, if we are talking about winning in the playoffs, Skinner won just as much as Pickard last season and, of course, much more the year before.
I do not contest your appreciation, I reply to the substance of the posts with my opinion and believe the opinion that Pickard was excellent in last year’s playoffs is over-stated.
You constantly bring up this scenario with Pickard. I think it’s time you acknowledge that it was Stuart Skinner who let in a horrendous go ahead goal at the most inappropriate time… 34 seconds left in the game! The Oilers couldn’t outscore Skinner’s bad goaltending in that game.
I’m not sure what particular goal you are speaking of but I will not, nor have I ever, pushed back against the premise that Skiner has let in bad goals at bad time and I’m not even here to defend Skinner or say that he’s been good enough when its mattered most.
I simply push back against the premise that Pickard was excellent, let alone “heroic” in the playoffs last season.
Are we at all worried that Savoie cannot score?
A little, for sure. You’ll want to give him this season because of draft pedigree and the cost of the asset. I have faith he’ll move the needle five-on-five, that’s where the trouble is
The blob was all fretting that Holloway would not score. It takes time for the majority of players. Dvorsky is not scoring at even strength in St. Louis, but is playing well. He does get power play time there though, unlike Savoie, and has three PP goals.
This
Savoie also took a month or so to settle in offensively at the AHL level.
Also, anecdotally, my mind tells me he’s got a bunch of “3rd assists” where he made good plays that helped score goals but didn’t get credited on the scorecard.
Also right now I’m more interested in how he plays. So far I like it. If he was 4 inches taller and 20 lbs heavier there’d be major rookie buzz around the league
Love that album and your references to it are always spot on.
Big props on the game for Skinner. That was no ordinary regular season game. And big props to his teammates for rallying around him.
As I’ve been saying Nuge is incredibly important to that bottom 6. Having him back changes the bottom 6 significantly. Hopefully we can add a winger that can help him out. If mangi can hang with Drai (I don’t think he can) putting Roslovic with Nuge to kill the 3rd toughs would be huge.
The other reason you need to upgrade Pickard is not just because he’s been terrible, it has dramatically increased Skinner’s workload. Skinner is tied for 3rd (19 in starts) amoung goalies.
Finding a certain upgrade on Skinner is a difficult task, especially in season. I’m not in the trade Skinner camp.
It’s a nice idea. So many possible roads to success. Knob needs to see them and players need to follow through. Aside from Roslovic and Magpie (one hopes), the series of Bowman signings have the feel of a ‘next year’ or TDL payoff. Que sera.
Anyways, yeah.
Nuge is huge.
Hyman w/ mcdavid w/ top 6 prospect
Draidolzkin w/ hopefully place holder for roslovic
Henrique w/nuge & whomever seems to fit as far as outscoring goes .
Music! I pray the don’t panic shift blender this to death. Like roll these lines spread the minutes stop taking players out of game rythmn in kneejerk reaction mode. See what kind of difference consistent linemates and full team ownership does for a change
1. It is so nice to see nuge back at center. I would love to know what Mcdavid’s numbers not just away from drai but also away from nuge look like over large enough sample set like last few seasons. I’m willing to bet an underappreciated increase in GA surfaces without RNH. As that is what he needs to play on mcdavid’s line. But i swear him saddled with responsibility of driving a line offensively could pay hug dividends. Team has more to gain with him driving a line than complimenting on one.
Hopefully magniapane slides down when roslo returns but will be suprised if isn’t savoie unless that line goes nuclear with roslo out…it is a bit sad that it might work out better by end of season with roslo injured for sake of limiting line combinations that seem to make sense to have tried before this point (i am not letting them off the hook for blowing up drai line that seemed like it was going so they could put hyman on 3rd line while mcdavid could clearly benefit from him back there. That was just undefendable logic IMO)
With the shutout last night, the Oilers still trail the entire league in 5v5 save percentage at:
Edmonton Oilers SV%: 87.73 %
League average SV%: 91.81 %
League median SV%: 90.81 %
Delta vs league average: -4.08 percentage points
Delta vs league median: -3.08 percentage points
The Oilers currently have the lowest save percentage in the entire NHL (dead last among the 32 teams)
Being 4 full points below league average is an enormous gap.
The Oilers are apparently anchoring to the shutout last night and promulgating that they don’t need to make a move on the goaltending front until further evaluation.
I think the obvious play is to find an upgrade for Pickard.
The obvious play is for the coaches, forwards, and defensemen to start playing some team defense.
The Oilers have demonstrated in the last two years that when they play a relatively solid team defensive game, a marginal NHL goaltender like Pickard is enough to win most games.
If the team defensive game is there, they upgrading the goaltender will make a difference in the playoffs.
Pickard didn’t suddenly get better when he was winning last year, or get worse, when he was losing this year. The difference was in the quality of the team defensive play in front of him.
Plus, it is impossible for Bowman to make a goaltender trade when the team defensive play if horrific.
The first step to accomplishing anything, including a goaltender trade, is for the team defensive play to improve.
Ryan’s numbers speak far more about the situation.
It’s not impossible for Bowman to make a goalie move whatsoever, it can be done at anytime.
When the Oilers have been playing excellent defense the past two seasons, the goaltending numbers were still in the toilet.
I would argue the play here is to recall Connor Ingram. However, it sounds like the players like Pickard enough to go to bat for him. Strange if true and now Ingram may be injured. Of course.
If not Ingram what about Brossoit ?Picks needs upgrading whether the team likes the idea or not.
Brossoit’s cap hit is something like $3.3MM so, even cut in half, its increase over Pickard and he hasn’t played in like 2 years – that would be quite the gamble.
Pickard is 33. He also suffered a lower body injury last playoffs. It looked pretty bad.
Even with publicly available goalie aging curves, we know that the decline for goalies starts at 30 and the cliff is generally at 35.
Publicly available data is limited by two things—survivor bias and outliers. Survivors bias occurs because lots of goalies just disappear when their performance drops as they age. Most of the outliers are guys in the elite tier like Hellebuyck.
The odds of a 33-year-old goalie, from the journeyman tier, performing well especially after a recent and significant lower body injury is not good. So far that has been the case.
Pickard is also an undersized goalie. I suspect smaller goalies age out faster as they rely more on reflexes and movement speed, both of which decline with age.
Pickard has an 86.2 SV% at 5v5. He has faced 174 shots.
if we had a mediocre backup with a 89.5 save percentage:
174 * (1 – 0.895) = 18.27 GA
24 – 18.27 ≈ 5.7 goals
5.5 point differential equals a win.
In other words, the Oilers would have two more points.
If Pickard keeps this up, you bleed two points every 9 starts. If he plays 36 games, the Oilers will bleed 8 points.
Oilers through 26 GP:
Shots Against: 638
Actual Goals Against: 78
Actual Team SV%: .8773
If they had league-average goaltending (.9181):
→ Expected GA: 52
→ Goals saved: 26
If they had league-median goaltending (.9081):
→ Expected GA: 58
→ Goals saved: 20
20–26 extra goals allowed so far = roughly 3.5–4.5 extra wins they “should” have with normal goaltending.
Plan: let’s wait to evaluate… 🤣
The key here is to stabilize the position. As chief counsel of the Cal Pickard fan club it pains me to agree with you, but a more capable backup is what’s needed.
It looks like Colton Ellis has grabbed an NHL job in Buffalo, meaning they have an extra goalie in Alex Lyon. I’ve been a proponent of Lyon as an option going back two seasons. His game has been consistent (good not great), and his price point ($1.5M x 2) and acquisition cost make him a good target without disrupting the cap structure or mortgaging the future.
From there I think Skinner can trend back toward .900, then GMSB can look to upgrade 1G after the Olympics when trades will be easier to manoeuvre.
Absolutely, the key is to stabilize the position and accept that a Diepietro-type may or many not work out and have contingency plans.
Certainly, you would expect to possibly have to cycle through a few players. You’re right, you want to shop in the aisle of teams with a third goalie.
Lyon is a little longer in the tooth than I like, but if the cap risk is near zero and the acquisition cost is low, I’d add him to list of possibilities.
Goalies peak between 26-8. A younger goalie would have a lower floor than Lyon but also a higher ceiling.
I’d prefer a younger guy, but I would need a goalie scout I trust.
This is excellent info. I made a post the other day looking at goalies that the Oilers had moved on from due to poor performance (Dubnyk, LaBarbera, Scrivens, Fasth, Gustavsson, and Talbot) and how far below the league average save percentage they were when they were moved on from, and they fell between 1.7 and 4.4 percent below.
Right now, Skinner is 1.2 percent below, and Pickard is 5.0 percent below!!!! He’s below goalies that were on horrible Oilers teams that had no chance at making the playoffs (except Gustavsson, who was on the 2016-2017 team that ended up making the playoffs).
Edmonton absolutely needs to find someone who can provide better support for Skinner and potentially operate in a 1A/1B tandem with him. I’d be calling Boston and seeing if they’d be willing to do a Regula & Pickard for DiPietro & Soderstrom trade.
If we say 4 wins that’s 3rd in the conference, not even allowing for if that was the case the difference in team confidence and demeanor probably adds more wins. No hurry
I believe this was the obvious (if difficult) play in summer. At this time, they need to stand pat. The team, apparently, spoke up on behalf of keeping Pickard so let them build on last game and show that this is the game the team needs to play to better support their goalies. As Mcdavid said, goaltending is a team position (or something to that effect). They need to continue to play harder around both nets and play closer in all areas of the ice, and the save percentage will correct over time.
I think it is no coincidence that they played a better team game last night because ice time was more indicative of a 4 line approach. Two reasons:
1 They played with a lead
2 They killed 6 penalties, and only 2 powerplays so the big guns played less
The time to make a change is next summer, depending on how the rest of this year plays out. Bowman cannot afford a lateral move where he loses picks and prospects for more of the same (at a higher cap hit)- that would be the definition of insanity!
I had heard about that and found it problematic. No NHL team should let player sentiment override objective roster needs.
Is the egregiousness of the defensive breakdowns that the Oilers have had factored in? What about the timing of the next egregious breakdown that leads to a goal against (when it rains, it pours)? Do we know how many egregious breakdowns occur on other teams and how many result in goals against?
I’m not suggesting the goaltending can’t be improved, but I am suggesting the nature of the breakdowns has been spectacular and have contributed to the seemingly poor goaltending metrics. It’s easy to use metrics like high-danger shots save percentage, expected goals, etc, to say the Oilers goalies are failing, but I look at the Jamie Benn goal on MoneyPuck, and it’s considered a 16% chance of going in. Perhaps I am not understanding the stat, but that puck goes in far more often than that.
If I am understanding the stat correctly, then I do have to question the validity of stats that are really difficult to capture what actually happened.
I like the Moneypuck GSAx enough, and it’s somewhat useful here as you are correct that the expected save percentage is well below average. Edmonton is about 2 goals saved above expected by that measure, with Skinner 4 above and Pickard 2 below. Usually by those stats Skinner meets or very slightly exceeds expected over a long sample. The idea of replacing Pickard is solid – particularly if he’s popular – as the team has generally been worse than the goaltending, which has not been great either. If the team costs their buddy his job, good. I think the short term plan seems to be to slot Ingram in there, which makes enough sense.
Where did you get that league average 5v5 sv%?
According to MoneyPuck league average 5v5 sv% is %90.55 with a median of %90.75
Having the average be an entire percentage point above the median would be crazy! There would need to be some extreme outliers to pull the average that far off the median.
Depends how you calculate.
I did mine from the total number of actual shots and goals. This is the “true NHL average save percentage” vs the average save percentage amoung NHL teams.
Did everyone see the play Kyle Palmieri made after tearing his ACL and on the way to the bench?
Show that to your friends who are fans of other sports.
Hockey players are built different.
Yeah that was something else.
Video:
https://youtube.com/shorts/gJVJKPO63pI?si=hdjzaCPNrieJ31Zl
He’s now out 6-8 months.
Those Quinn Hutson AHL numbers are impressive, let’s give him a look and let Trent Frederic eat popcorn in the pressbox for a week. 6 points in 49 games in Oiler silks now and allegedly counting.
Fredrick is a better checker which we need in the bottom 6
Can’t call him up without someone going on LTIR or moved off the roster via re-assignment or trade.
Tomasek could be swapped.
Prospectowski!
Indeed, David Lewandowski gets the spotlight as his Blades visit Edmonton in a matinee affair.
He has tailed off after a hot start to the season–he has but an assist in his last 4 GP–but has a team-leading 26 points in 24 GP. He has also been named to Germany’s preliminary roster for the upcoming WJHC.
Puck drops in the ‘Chuk at 4 p.m. Manola time.
When’s the last game we seen a Oiler game with multiple fights? I believe with the arrival of Clattenburg has awoken a few players that need to play on the edge every once in awhile to be effective as a team.
According to hockeyfights.com, the last time an Oilers game had two fights in it was last season against Nashville. Emberson fought Smith and later in the game Podkolzin TKOd Lauzon. Edmonton won 5-1.
Yep some folks will never understand the value of a Clattenburg. I would expect in the coming days of the players-coaches praising Clattenburg on his compete-maturity and leadership skills at such a young age.
Yup, I remember reading somewhere that he was voted one of the best checkers and defensive forwards in his final season in the OHL. The fact that he’s already played games in the NHL makes him a great draft pick. How many fifth-round picks play in the NHL, let alone as a 20-year-old in their first year pro?
Man, RNH looked good yesterday. So smooth and what’s impressive is how he can consistently make skilled plays quickly without even looking “fancy”. Very efficient and effective player
He’s been made into a utility player and there is so much more value offensively than that.
Ingram was having a solid night, went to play a dump behind the net, fell, hit his head and got scored on. Stayed in to give up a breakaway goal but then got pulled because of the head knock.
No update.
Jarventie’s goal was an absolute bomb on the one-timer – like elite NHL bomb. Wonderful line walk and pass from Carfagna.
Must admit, I’m frustrated watching MacKinnon extending his prime and looking better than ever while McDavid isn’t doing the same.I would’ve expected Connor’s game to age better.
Colorado manages his TOI much better.
The Avs have also not played deep into the playoffs since their cup win.
Fatigue is a huge part of what you are seeing right now. McD has played some of the most minutes of any player over the last four years.
Over the last 4 seasons McDavid is 2nd among forwards in TOI per game at 22:02. MacKinnon is first over that same time period at 22:32.
MacKinnon plays monster minutes too. MacKinnon has pretty much always had an elite winger glued to him, though. And playing with Makar is going to boost your point totals more than playing with Bouch. Not a knock on Bouch, that’s a credit to Makar.
This season Mac is playing a fair bit less than Connor. Over a minute at 5v5 and about two overall iirc. Maybe Bednar realizes something, or maybe it’s because they don’t have to given how the team is playing
Which goes to KK building up all of the lines, so he has that option. Colorado also couldn’t win another Cup or advance in playoffs when they couldn’t ice enough quality play from lines 2-4, and they are the most similar team to the Oilers I think
The Oilers have enough quality players to do it now, just have to invest in it
Yep.
Colorado also most often uses a 5 man unit with Toews-Makar likely the best pairing in the league.
Perhaps a function of Nate playing with better line mates.
Lehkonen (24 points) – MacKinnon ( 44 points) – Necas (33 points) is a killer line.
Savoie (7 points) – McDavid (36 points) – Hyman ( 4 points) is not.
Interesting in yesterday’s game against Montreal, Bednar swapped Necas and Landeskog for an extended period in an effort, I think, to get Landeskog going and of course he responded with 2 goals and 3 points while Necas had to settle for only 3 assists.
When Nichuskin returns from injury shortly, the Avalanche have arguably the most lethal top 6 in the league with even Brock Nelson now joining the party with 2 goals and 2 assists yesterday.
Savoie, a recovering Hyman, Podkholzin and Mangiapane just don’t measure up.
Not yet they don’t but there’s a lot of season left, and some possible regression for the Avs given PDO
The most likely regression to the mean is Colorado’s powerplay.
It’s currently running at 16.3% good for 24th in the league.
Last season it hit 24.8, 8th in the league.
With all that talent, it’s just a matter of time.
Are you trying to kid yourself? Anaheim will be taking Colorado out behind the woodshed within a season or two… or was it Vancouver? No, wait! Carolina! Oh snap! I forgot the LA Kings!
Or you mean Minnesota Wild? Weren’t they supposed to be a power the last 7 years or so, HH? (Referring to Fibonnaci-always-out-of-sequence the troll, also DSF once upon a time …)
I think Connor needs the benefit of a bit more runway before comparing, given the 2-year age difference.
The prime age/seasons of NHL forwards is debatable, but let’s look at the following:
After 10 seasons played, age 28 for both, looking at the 11th season and beyond:
Regular season
Playoffs
LOL
Samanski is going to be a long time Oiler. I can’t wait to see how much better he is after he comes back from the Olympics.
Quinn Hutson deserves a call up but only if coach will play him with some real skill. I’d like to see him in Roslovic’s spot but the coach won’t do that. I can get on board with him a Nuge centered third line.
Of course, this won’t happen as they aren’t demoting anyone and don’t have the cap for another player.
In due course but Hutson is turning 24 soon so his time is soon, if ever.
Im not convinced his offence will translate to the highest level but I’m here to find out.
I was not high on him coming in to the season but he’s impressed.
He’s a talented kid like his brothers. I wish all of these young guys could find their way, but of course most won’t. I posted earlier in the year a look at size in the NHL. I can’t recall the exact numbers and didn’t keep them, only put them in post
What I found was that at both ends of size there are very few players under 180 or over 220. Around 7% for each. On the smaller end they are usually elite skill types. At the large end a few skilled outliers and more that are there because they can play well enough and are toughs
NHL hockey is a hard go, especially in playoffs. We constantly see small players get pushed out of intense games, even the high skill guys. Not always or all of them, but it is a real thing. The huge guys just don’t have the quickness and agility, and sometimes lack the puck skills to compete in highly competitive games
So for Hutson, the game is there, but I think to play on a contending team, which
the Oilers are still, he will need to bulk up some, if he can. Savioe just hits below 180, so he has the build close enough to what seems to work for smaller forwards. He’s an inch taller than Marchand and about the same weight
Marchand is a nasty player but still he picks his spots and isn’t trying to be a banger. That doesn’t work when you give up 20 lbs plus to average size players
For the prospect D height and weight matter more as D are usually a bit bigger than F. Without elite skill it’s a tough climb to stick. Oesterle who gets mentioned a lot as a comparable for undersized D (6’ 190) has maxed out at 71 games in a season on a bad Coyotes team years ago. Good for him for carving out an NHL career, but it’s a tweener type one
Howard is listed same size as Savoie. There’s room for two more undersized skill F, but probably not a lot more given Nuge is there as well. That would be 25% of the forward group 190 and under
Many of us around here think the Oilers need a bit more crust, and that’s the domain of bigger players, unless you can find a crazed Marchand style smaller guy, but that’s unlikely these days. And why Clatt was able to garner a call up, Chaulk calls him a dinosaur or throwback, young guys today mostly aren’t like that
Agree on Hutson. Seems that the Oilers have a handful of forwards in Bakersfield that are showing real potential all of a sudden. Too bad there doesn’t seem to be any room in Edmonton right now. Hard to see them bringing another rookie up with Savoie and Clattenberg already in the line up and the coach’s preference for veterans. This may be the time for Bowman to use some of these assets on the trade market to upgrade the team in other areas. Do any of these kids have decent trade value other than Howard? We’ve seen multiple cases of the Oilers not maximizing asset management. Maybe Stan could put one in the win column here.
Samanski is one that I wouldn’t trade unless there was real value coming back – I think he’s got long time 3C/PK written all over him – and he seems like just a great due with an infectious personality.
I’m not saying he’s untouchable but I think he’s got real long term value to the Oilers.
I’m not sure how much trade value the likes of Marjala, Hutson, Leppanen, Carfagna have – maybe a sweetner to add in for 2 months of retention. At the end of the day, they are all free assets that Bowman found in the undrafted UFA market (well, technically, Marjala was drafted).
I sure hope you’re right about that game yesterday afternoon being repeatable. It was a total team effort of the likes we haven’t seem much of this season. It sure makes it easier on the goaltenders. I tend to agree that they shouldn’t make any lateral moves with regards to goaltending, it has to be a definite up grade. In the meantime Kiefer Sherwood would be a perfect fit amongst this forward group. He should be targeted.
Per Curlock:
Tommy Lafreniere is tied for 6th in WHL scoring and is tied for second in goal scoring
Ryan Nugent Hopkins centering a third line is championship level depth. It will look so good once Roslovic is back in the top six and Kap adds more speed and aggressiveness with some skill to the bottom six.
What a valuable player Nuge is on special teams and as a solid versatile 2-way 5 on 5 player.
He’s having a great start to the season, but there a couple of factors to me. One is that he stays consistent, over the years he’s had times when he isn’t productive at 5v5 enough, even with world class centres. One would think he could playing lesser comp
Another is healthy enough wingers. He’s the first to move up if not. The last thing is the coaches. Do they have the resolve to build up 4 good lines and not default as always to what they always have
Because the D pairs can all move the puck well enough now, that really helps the bottom 6 F be productive. But for those players especially, they need consistency to figure out how to do it, and the talent spread around enough. That’s what the other top teams do, or at least concentrate it in the top 9 and don’t play the 4th line much
Leon was dynamic.
I think this team has earned, if nothing else*, some benefit of the doubt.
*2 conference championships and a BOA beat down aren’t nothing.
The better you are the more expectations go up.
We agree the goal is to win the Stanley Cup, and this team has shown twice now, in consecutive seasons, that it is able to adjust and get to its game when it matters, save that final, glorious push. There is a lot of season remaining.
Colour me impressed with both Hutson and Samanski. Pleasantly surprised with Samanski especially, kid has skill.
Good on Clattenburg as well. I’m relieved to see the young man is holding his own. Was afraid he’d have a Samorukov type experience. Needs to pick his moments though, will wear himself out early at this rate.
What is it with these people who think Clattenburg needs to slow down?
That’s the exact opposite of what he and this team need.
10 to 12 minutes a night? Yeah, go all out every shift, Clatt.
Pound everyone you get close to.
Drag this half-assed team fully into the fight.
Wait until the hard miles start to pile up on the kid. it’s better to make your presence known sure, but when it evens out, the battering on the body takes a toll.
Its not sustainable through 82 games, not playing 10-12 minute as you suggest – at least in my opinion.
Finishing checks is one thing, but going around and looking for big hits on every shift is (a) not sustainable and (b) going to have him out of position and leaking goals more often than anything else.