The 2025-26 Edmonton Oilers are a good team, but they aren’t that good. By that I mean coach Kris Knoblauch’s imagination might be the only thing limiting him from some moves that improve the team. I know the team plans to recall a defenseman (my guess is Josh Brown, wrote about it at The Athletic a week ago) but there’s also talk of a forward coming up.
Knoblauch has rejected Stan Bowman’s summer. We know this because Andrew Mangiapane is on a dump and chase line. Knoblauch is also coaching in some bad luck, because Trent Frederic is a player who can help in a north-south deployment, but he isn’t fast enough to arrive at the play in time.
I don’t know when that will happen, but do believe the coach would be wise to sit Frederic. Not because he’s a bad player. I’ll stand up for Frederic all year if it takes that long for him to get back where he once belonged. However, the Oilers have to stop the bleeding on the third and fourth lines. A simple first step is giving Frederic a chance to skate and not play through the Christmas break. The team could start now. No rage. No anger. Just an acceptance of fact.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: Wild, Kraken, Jets (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- At home to: Sabres, Red Wings (Expected 1-0-1) 0-0-1
- On the road to: TML, Canadiens, Penguins (Expected 2-1-0)
- On the road to: Bruins, Wild (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: VEG, Flames (Expected 1-0-1)
- On the road to: Flames, Jets (Expected 1-0-1)
- At home to: Bruins (Expected 1-0-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-3, 21 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 2-1-1, five points in four games
- Season Record: 13-11-6, 32 points in 30 games
If the Oilers win tonight, the team will be on track with my December projection. The Jekyll and Hyde rollercoaster has me less convinced the team will run the table over the rest of this month. Too bad, because the top two lines have figured it out.
In the five years leading up to Edmonton’s first Stanley Cup victory, Oilers prospects (forwards) who spent time in the AHL were in a difficult spot trying to break into the NHL with the team. In the 1979-80 season, first-year wingers included rookie NHL players Mark Messier, Dave Hunter and Dave Lumley. They were joined one year later by Jari Kurri and Glenn Anderson and Pat Hughes was acquired in March of 1981. By the offseason of 1981, there were three sets of wingers who were young, getting better, and establishing themselves as part of the team in Edmonton. Oh, and they added veteran Jaroslav Pouzar (1982 draft) and the redoubtable Esa Tikkanen (1983) just in case someone on the farm had a sliver of hope. So hey, Walt Poddubny, nice year you had there. Hope you like buses!
Okay. When we talk about the AHL kids, we’re talking the next Poddubny, or Jason Chimera, Fernando Pisani or Ryan McLeod. I think it’s time for the Oilers to consider recalling one of the kids Stan Bowman signed over the spring and summer. Who you gonna call? These numbers are ranked by even-strength goal percentage, so you’ll need to look at that number, offense overall, and even-strength offense. There are four forwards who have clearly risen above the rest.
Ike Howard is scoring at more than a point per game overall, and close to it at even strength. He leads the team in even strength goal share. I don’t believe he’ll be the recall, because the club will want him to stay when returning next time. There’s no guarantee that will happen at this time.
Quinn Hutson is on a ridiculous run currently. I thought he would have a season offensively that resembled Fernando Pisani, but Hutson has 24 points after 22 games while Pisani posted 25 in 52 games as an AHL rookie. This is a smashing result and a big surprise. I think the Oilers would do well to recall Hutson today.
James Hamblin is an NHL player. He doesn’t score enough during NHL auditions to stay there.
Josh Samanski leads all Condors in even-strength points. He can play in all game states, is an effective center in the AHL and is a consistent contributor. I wouldn’t be shocked if he was recalled.
Josh Brown is the best defensemen in Bakersfield. I like both rookie prospects (Beau Akey and Damien Carfagna) but this isn’t their time. Yet. Injury has impacted both and they need more time. If Brown isn’t recalled, it will by Riley Stillman. Pretty sure.
Connor Ingram has been inconsistent in Bakersfield, at some point the club needs to see something from him or he’ll be a next year play at the NHL level.
On the Lowdown today, Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will be our guest. We’ll also talk NFL, Condors and MLB winter meetings. We’re love on You Tube and Sports 1440, noon to 2pm.
Gotta wait and see how it plays out before passing judgement. But a few thoughts:
1)If you’re taking on all of Jarry and getting rid of Skinner, you better be right.
2) Sad to see two(!) local boys go. I will always cheer extra hard for players from Edmonton and area
3) I knew nothing about Spencer Stastney before today, but am intrigued. Looks like a real player on paper.
4) After a prolonged period of abysmal pro-scouting, our pro scouts have been money more often than not lately.
Have our pro-scouts been money recently??? Mangi and Freddy??
Fair point! I’m waiting on trent still. High ankle sprains are tricky and I won’t pass judgment on that deal yet. I believe Mangiapane was a reasonable bet that just hasn’t worked out.
But I was thinking more the big deals. This Jarry trade is a big deal. After years of all our big deals working out about as well as Milan Lucic, we have gone through a period of Hyman and Ekholm that gives me faith here.
I do think Mangiapane is a streaky player whom I think will turn up the intensity come playoff time. He still has a good shot needs to get it off more often.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
·
4m
Been driving so here’s PIT/EDM deal:
Jarry & Poulin to Edmonton
Kulak, Skinner & 2029 2nd to Pittsburgh
Not sure what’s out there
Nashville Predators
@PredsNHL
TRADE https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f504.svg
We’ve received a 2027 3rd round draft pick from EDM for defenseman Spencer Stastney.
Do we really think these moves make the team better? Jarry with no retention is scary.
Woof. Have to see what is included in the deals but I don’t know how this improves the team. Makes the D very thin. And we still have Pickard as back up. Ugh.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
This is shaping up to be a very big day
There is word is Edmonton is closing in on a pair of deals…
Acquiring Tristan Jarry from Pittsburgh and Spencer Stastney from
Nashville
We will see how it all unfolds.
Oilers acquiring Jarry from PIT and D Spencer Stastney from NSH. Separate deals.
https://x.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1999494361550324212?s=20
https://x.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1999493179029225861?s=20
Guessing Kulak is going the other way (for Jarry) to help with money, and Stastney comes in to replace Kulak.
Interested to see the other moving parts.
I wonder if Max Jones will be part of these moves. Or if he fills in for a forward who is moved.
If Frederic is going the other way, then I’ll consider this deal a win, regardless of what comes back.
We are going to win the next 6 of 7 if Skinner and Pickard can hold up.
This comment aged rapidly.
My Proprietary Standard procedure of Goalie gm perf measure is
A. Number of closed sh (into goalie) without moving (Bio evo hunt = hit body takes over) each indv dmans side. X,y & Y,Z heat maps.
B. Number of Closed SH by goalie tracking puck movement each indv deans side with 2 heat maps.
C. Number of open SH into net elevation space indv def sides. Find a true OSH save% baseline = xG
D. Break up into further data sets based on Fwd quality of comp (xAvg o7/08) OSH targeting volume & Success rate.
This dates back to assumption every thing is regression.
But open/closed is an absolute 100%/0% which requires separate excluded data sets. Open SH are regression to each indv players : Dmen penetration & OSH reduction xAvg,
Fwds penetration & Osh targeting.
I was not able to articulate this in 07/08 we people first questioned my claim of Fwd indv. xG by x,y release, Y,z location, Type shot & Goalies hit rates.
Table hockey goalie Theory Ron Gunville (Late PP Dir PA Raiders age 7) position mid 70s.
I recognized The change from upright stance to Gunville pos. In table hockey games made it lower scoring = less fun!
We saw .865 starter save% avg go up to .915 in NHL.
How would you explain the diminishing average save % of goalies across the NHL (currently 0.898) since peaking at 0.915 in both 2013/14 & 2014/15?
Is this a result of targeted open shooting tactics by players and coaching staffs?
Missed the game but just watched the highlights.
FOLKS, did you watch that first goal carefully? (I can find anybody having commented on it.) Watch the last two replay angles.
McDavid passes the puck through the legs of THREE different players to Hyman. THREE!! In tight, in the goal area!
That is insane!!
What a time to be an Oiler fan.
same and same.
holy smackers.
McD’s third assist on the night wasn’t bad either.
Was at the game tonight and paid really close attention to Frederic..he brings nothing to the table.,,like nothing!!! He needs to sit for few games.
It really is different to watch the game live.
Back when I used to live in Edmonton, I vividly remember James Neal. I wouldn’t say that he couldn’t skate, but he really didn’t get around the very rink quick. He sort of played a half court game. He didn’t often cross the redline back into the d zone.
Pronger back in the day… Watching him live the first few times, I was sort of surprised. Less happened when he was on the ice than I had expected. He tilted the ice in an undramatic fashion. Nothing bad at all happened when he was on the ice, so you relax or go to the restroom without worrying. But watching him play wasn’t as exciting as I had imagined, which was perfectly fine. He was very efficient.
Great bounce back game.
Hopefully they bring it this weekend against Stecher and co.
Also, it would be a nice reward to bring Hutson up to play against his bro.
Yes bring him up while he’s on a heater. Let’s find out if Bowman is like Holland or more like Sather on being able to tap in at the right time.
Bowman calls him up, coach plays him 8 uneventful minutes, crowd proclaims Bowman signed a stinker.
Solid night. They used the middle of the ice more to break the puck out as the game went on and it worked. Took the body more too.
Nice to see Skinner having a little fun with the win. Super solid game by him and the team.
Attaboy Skinner great game let’s keep it going Saturday against some good shooters.
Skinner with a very solid night!!
McDavid with 11pts in 4 games.
Guy must be made of antigravity, falling UP the cliff like that.
12pts*
Hatty for Hyman! Music! 4 apples for 97!
Podz hit iron on purpose for a stoppage in play, all to set up ZMH’s hat trick
4d chess.
Oilers and the empty net post, a love affair through the ages.
I actually thought the Oilers had vanquished the EN issue this year. Sheesh.
That’s better
Almost unfathomable how bad Oilers are at hitting empty nets. Must be making up for Patrick Stefan reverse karma.
Just as you say that, they get an empty-net goal.
Perfect! Exactly what I wanted!
Vasily – you have to be better than that.
That stupid flip shot with a wet noodle stick got him there.
Wrister, slapper and proper snapper all go in.
The Detroit and Chicago commentators tend to be really interesting listening to. Had a rare moment of not-too-much-insight just a minute ago, talking about how few late-round Edmonton draft picks have panned-out recently. They didn’t think to ask “how many late round draft picks have they had?”
The comment was fair though, that EDM hasn’t had a draft pick beyond the second round hit 60 points in the last 25 years.
There were plenty of late round picks prior to the last 5-6 years.
If I was in a Python mood I’d make a list of teams ranked by the total number of draft picks they’ve had over the past 10 years. Curious what that looks like.
Would be interesting to mull over, for sure.
Thankfully Kulak seems to have rebounded after really struggling. Good to see.
DET broadcasters pumping Skinner’s tires on air right now.
Just watching highlights of Makar throwing a wrist shot on net to create chaos and rebound goal. Has anyone else noticed Bouch doesn’t take wrist shots anymore? Like ever? I wonder why? He used to score plenty like that. If I was d coach I’d be reminding him to use his wrister again, especially with how closely teams play him now.. give him more chance to get a shot on net and not get it blocked and/or headed the other way.
I’ve thought the same thing a few times, but your post inspired me to check.
Yr Wrist Slap SOG Wrist% Slap%
2022 76 91 205 0.37 0.44
2023 59 54 156 0.38 0.35
2024 67 111 220 0.30 0.50
2025 63 106 235 0.27 0.45
2026 22 38 75 0.29 0.51
He’s been taking about the same amount of wrist shots the last few years, but definitely less than he did his first two seasons in the league.
Interesting how our perception shapes our reality..
Thanks for looking that up and providing context
DSF talks shit about the “decline” of the Oilers veterans, particularly McDavid, Hyman, and RNH, Ekholm, and Draisaitl, and on cue, all of them major positive contributors tonight. The reverse curse, it never fails.
Can you talk some shit about Frederic, now?
Wasn’t DSF an 80’s cassette tape manufacturer?
Maybe BASF??
Imagine devoting the effort to more than a decade of daily menacing partisan hockey fans in some bizarre project to show them their own bias. That’s the charitable look. The alternative of daily trolling would be even more bizarre.
Anyone at the game live – does Todd still whistle like an idiot to call his players off?
I try not to complain about refs, but tonight they’ve been about as useful as an Amish electrician.
In today’s NHL players get to decide what they will do. I think Ekholm needs to channel his inner Pronger. Steady play, and if anyone thinks they should be a goof, he should crush them in some way. He’s enormous and I think they don’t want a piece of that
Not fighting paid semi skilled fighters. Kicking ass on the rest
Ekholm is NOT a physical player. He can be dirty with his stick but he doesn’t use his body to be physical
Sometimes it’s hard to tell when you’re being facetious.
Ekholm destroyed Finney in the first, and just laid out Copp in the paint a few moments ago.
and a couple plays in this game change his career?
He’s not a physical player with his body.
This is backed up with hit stats (which aren’t worth a ton but, relative to his fellow d-man should tell an accurate story).
Perhaps I see it differently. I see Ekholm being parsimonious with his physicality, in particular picking his spots for greater effect. He does it enough to keep guys honest, or gain an advantage on the puck, but not enough that he’s running around looking for a hit that’s not necessarily there.
atta boy Zack scoring in tight! Boy was he missed!
4G 2A in his last 6 games. (0G 2A in first 6 games back)
It’s a shame that he couldn’t get back from injury sooner. I will understand why he will be passed over for Team Canada, but he would give them everything he has and more
Big goal. That’s good Nurse.
A little lucky but get it to the net when big guns are out there.. simple play
You see the arrogance of that ref who tripped Leon?
This new crew of ex players turned officials are the worst possible choices.
That guy deserved to get popped in the jaw after that reaction.
These new NHL officials wouldn’t last half a season working Sask senior hockey
No proper training and ex-players who couldn’t hack it but still have the ego complex. What could go wrong?!?
This league can’t get out of the bush.
Official needs to get out of the way there. Awful
Not a penalty.
This league has gotten plain strange.
Weak call after dangerous play on Ekholm earlier completely missed.
Pods with a couple of big hits his last shift. Love that guy!
Nurse with a what in the world was that play
Poor D play by 25 + 2 this year has led to quite a few GA.
and 14 and 27
Nurse overplayed puck carrier and needlessly took himself completely out of the play. Granted he hasn’t been doing as much of that lately..
He did against Buffalo which resulted in his penalty and a PP goal against. He ‘dog whistles’ quite regularly
I was trying my best to not be as hard on him but I am often frustrated. He gets into trouble when he tries to do other people’s jobs as well as his own.. happens too often
Agreed. Simple Nurse is my favourite Nurse
De Brincat should have been penalized for taking Ekholm down behind the net.
Nice to see Ek get one especially after that big hit in the first.
Big save by Skinner on a breakaway (two things I’m told he doesn’t do) and the Oilers extend the lead shortly after.
Going into tonight, 2-1-1 in past 4 games with a goals against average of 1.77 and a save percentage of .929. If he’s about to get on one of his patented hot streaks, I am here for it. It’s the games in between that have always been the issue with him as a starter
Over the cliff McDavid hunting down the scoring lead.
Lol. Over the hill 28 y/o McDavid chasing the aged 30 y/o MacKinnon.
Also very much in the mix are the greybeards 29 y/o Rantanen and 32 y/o Kucherov…
Stammer with the hatty in smashville. Guy’s been invisible since leaving Tampa.
4 goals
Mcdavid has surpassed M Bossy in total points. Which means most future ‘quickest to’ milestones will be just Gretzky and Lemieux benchmarks. Unreal talent.
I hated Bossy who was just a tick better goalscorer than Ovechkin.
Hyman PP marker I was on his horse one game too early. I hope I don’t get banned for voicing a opinion on who I think might have good game. If this is the end of me so be it. I would like to thank my production crew and my handlers and of course my beautiful wife for having a sense of humour watching the Playoffs games while I’m stressed right out every time the opposition directs a shot at Skinner.
I have hesitation calling most pro athletes uninterested or lazy. But how they are playing looks lazy. There is no urgency
Looks like Bowman, having gone through 3 Cups, was right about refreshing the group. We wait
Sather did it as well
PP cash’s! Important goal.
With the amount of injuries the club has taken ‘blocking shots’ I feel a foaming rage
Playoffs sure. Reg season? Context. Getting in lanes, so there is no shot, facing the puck, where the pads are
ZACHARY! 🚨
Wings with a hard forecheck and winning board battles.