Each year, I write an article called Farm Workers and have a segment on college players. Here’s what I wrote about them in February of this year: College players have some advantages. Their prospect clock begins about four years later than a drafted junior, so fans miss out on the development period and just look at the fully formed player. Noah Philp is one year younger than Lane Pederson, but the prospect folks like me regard one as a possible NHL solution and the other like a career AHLer. I think NHL teams look past guys like Pederson, too.
Quinn Hutson got the call to the NHL yesterday, recognition for his exceptional first step as a pro hockey player. He is on pace for a mountain of goals in the AHL, as well as being a solid two-way winger. His speed is recognized as a positive. The only downbeats on his resume when signed were size (he is 5.11, 176) and scoring ability. Well, he has 16 goals in 24 games with the Bakersfield Condors, so scoring ability is no longer an issue. What can we expect from him as an NHL player?
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: Wild, Kraken, Jets (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- At home to: Sabres, Red Wings (Expected 1-0-1) 1-0-1
- On the road to: TML, Canadiens, Penguins (Expected 2-1-0) 1-1-0
- On the road to: Bruins, Wild (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: VEG, Flames (Expected 1-0-1)
- On the road to: Flames, Jets (Expected 1-0-1)
- At home to: Bruins (Expected 1-0-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-3, 21 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 4-2-1, nine points in seven games
- Season Record: 15-12-6, 36 points in 33 games
First, we have to recognize Hutson is fully formed as a player. He is 23. His skill set included plus goal scoring, but we didn’t know he would accomplish so much in such a short space of time. That isn’t a new level of skill, a new gear, so much as placing Hutson in a seemingly more difficult situation that he found easier than college. That’s unusual.
Hutson has played in just 24 games, so this could be his career high in scoring goals in pro hockey. In fact, that’s probably a reasonable bet. NHLE has his current pace for 27 NHL goals in 82 games. Half of his goals are on the power play. Let’s say he gets zero power-play time, that’s a reasonable thought. That puts him at 14 NHL goals in 82 games. Maybe he takes a few games to adjust. Let’s say it’s 12 NHL goals in 82 games.
Let’s say he plays half a season. That’s six NHL goals in 41 games. Considering his other skills, and the lack of scoring on Edmonton’s third and fourth lines, I think Hutson should get a full shot in his first NHL audition. He is 23, and has cleared all known hurdles. Give him a shot.
I don’t publish this much anymore, because it upsets some of you. However, for me five-on-five points-60 is a level playing field and gives us an idea how well a player is doing. If there’s a guy on this list who is tearing the cover off the ball while not playing with the Glimmer Twins, then that guy should be lauded as something else. Here are the five-on-five goals, by forward, including all linemates.
- Connor McDavid 2.44
- Leon Draisaitl 2.31
- Jack Roslovic 2.04
- Vasily Podkolzin 1.93
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.91
- Zach Hyman 1.89
- Kasperi Kapanen 1.69
- Connor Clattenburg 1.69
- Noah Philp 1.28
- Mattias Janmark 1.27
- Andrew Mangiapane 1.13
- David Tomasek 0.92
- Curtis Lazar 0.81
- Adam Henrique 0.78
- Matt Savoie 0.76
- Trent Frederic 0.49
- Max Jones 0
Andrew Mangiapane has played 180 minutes with Connor McDavid, 90 with Leon Draisaitl. He isn’t delivering there. He is 2.35 pts-60 with Mattias Janmark, though. Now, Janmark jumps into the Dead Sea with Adam Henrique (0.58 pts-60 in 103 minutes) but thrives with thrives with Mangiapane (3.52 pts-60). I know Janmark isn’t wildly popular among Oilers fans due to funny bucket and the fact he looks like he skated into the picture from 1982, but he’s a guy I trust. Janmark-Mangiapane are 50 percent goals and 59 percent expected goals. That’s a little alright. I’d try them with Nuge when Jack Roslovic gets back.
One final item: Noah Philp has played less than four minutes with Draisaitl and less than a minute with McDavid. Ten years from now no one will remember, but Philp, on this list, looks better than most when taking that fact into consideration.
On the Lowdown today, Rachel Kryshak from Betalytics and ESPN will join me, and we’ll talk about Tristan Jarry and how well he could fit the Oilers style of play. We’ll also have the round table with Declan Krueger, Donovan Paulson and Josh Fenwick. It’s three young men verbally assaulting me for two straight hours. Someone call the cops! Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
During the start of broadcast, they mentioned the Penguins PP was ranked #1 and Edmonton was #3.
After tonight’s 3 for 4 for Edmonton and PIT’s 1 of 6 on the powerplay, the teams switched positions. EDM is now the #1 PP team and Pens are #3
Only caught the first and just finished watching oilers+ 20 min highlight reel. Obviously the teams high end skill came to play but I also thought Jarry made some really nice saves at the start of the third period when the game was still in the balance. Skinner conversely leaked a bad one and almost another. Jarry was unlucky again to give up some goals late when the game was out of reach. He’s played a lot better than the 3GA and 4GA games he’s started here with. Ways to go but I really am seeing why they went out and got him.
Conversely a bad (ish) look for Dubas. I’d be a little choked if I were a Pens fan. Sure it makes “sense” operationally to make the trade but maybe he should have had a better target than Skinner. Not sure what Pitts is doing in that trade, it’s a clear downgrade. I guess throwing at least this season away. (Who knows, skinner could also move again)
They have 3 other goalies. 2 of whom will very likely play better than Skinner. They didn’t need Skinner. He’s planning to trade him for a pick and there’s no contract commitment.
Kulak is either a perfect rental or a deadline dump for a pick as well.
This was entirely logical from the Penguins.
I thought Jarry was quite a bit like Skinner. The main difference to my eye is Jarry is far more capable making quick snap passes. I haven’t seen many goalies that can zip the puck around the rink like that. His wrist muscles must be amazing.
The Pens objective wasn’t to acquire Skinner as a long-term solution. Same with Kulak. They will either flip them both or let their contracts expire. Dubas just wanted to divest of Jarry’s contract. The 2nd round pick was probably the biggest asset going the Pens way.
The whole league has watched Kulak in the SCF two years in a row. And the whole league knows that Skinner has playoff experience and won’t be rattled.
Dubas trades both at the deadline for a first and a prospect.
He gets a first, a second, and a prospect for Jarry, who didn’t fit the rebuild anyways.
He also gets a better tank job for this season.
I’m OK with the Jarry trade for us, but I think it was a brilliant bit of work by Dubas.
With Malkin done at the end of the season and Crosby with only one more year, Dubas righty doing a re-set.
Tens of millions coming off the cap hit in the next couple of years.
As fans and players, the crest on the front of the jersey is more important than the name on the back. We know it, and we feel it. Every player who puts on that jersey becomes a permanent part of the identity of that crest, even after they move on. The longer they wear the jersey, especially when it was their first NHL jersey, the more they play meaningful games together, the more highs and lows they experience together, the harder it is to see them leave, especially when there is unfinished business.
This was such a strange game to watch, with so many storylines. The strangest part of it was seeing 2 players you still want to do well and have success, play against their old team for the first time right after being traded. No settling in period, no time to adjust. It was just so weird and bittersweet. I’m glad it’s over and I’m looking forward to the next Oiler game without mixed emotions.
Congrats to Leon on his 1,000th point. I just wish he had obtained it in Montreal because it was tough seeing it scored against Stu with Kulak in the box and everyone they were teammates with 5 short days ago celebrating without the two of them.
Remember when the Canucks were “forced” to trade Podz on a $1MM X2 contract to a division rival because they would have had to put him on waivers in order to keep Aatu Ratty and Arshdeep Bains on their opening roster…..?
I do! I do remember that! #warmglow
So props Bowman
And props Jackson for investing in player development. Seems to have brought Podz along, combined with his work ethic
I would say Leon taking Podkolzin under his wing was break he needed.
Pods effort got him there, his development might keep him there. Production is a necessity on a team with options. Podz is a beast and beauty. Currently my #4 Fave
Even better, I remember not long before that, somone touting him as the second coming of Jesus and a massive part of the future of Canuck domination for the foreseeable future. 🤣🤣🤣
It’s amazing to watch him get better in real time he may transform into a 20 plus grunt goalscorer that’s built for the playoffs.
I mean, he’s a bottom 6 winger on any good team, so why would you keep those players? 😉
Everything else aside seeing two goalies face each other wearing the opposing team’s mask was something I’m sure I’ve never seen before.
— Starting goalies getting traded for each other has to be very rare
— Doubt a starting goalie has ever played their former team in their first start subsequent (it was almost both goalies experiencing this)
1st time within a week
I’m somewhat being serious, but I’m not sure Skinner outduels Silovs. I see it 50/50 and maybe even that 3rd goalie getting some time. Chances of Skinnwr starting more than 50% of Pens’ remaining games?
If he stays in Pittsburg, I doubt Skinner plays more than 10 game the rest of the season.
I agree it’s when as much as how many.
When as in June.
Nice to see 23 get some ice time in the final few minutes. Shame he had to be tasked with floating 10 and 88’s boats.
He looked good in his limited minutes and actually made something happen on his mcdavid shift.
Wow Klingberg is healthy and a steal at 4 million. Bowman has him pegged
Klingberg 14 points in 24 games. Playing 21 minutes a night. Too bad that we couldn’t keep him.
There she goes. There she goes again. Racing through my brain. The defense can’t contain. The save percentage in flames.
There she blows. There she blows again. Pulsing through my brain The defense can’t contain. The save percentage in flames.
lol this was good.
Well, the good news is Jarry’s Oilers SV% in the first 55 mins of a game is great!
The last 5 mins when the game is dusted is not so hot, but we haven’t seen it when the game is close and score effects aren’t at play.
Also, goals saved above expected is a tidy +0.61 after 2 games and 2 wins
2 wins 0 the jury is still out on him slamming the door and rolling us to #6
Pros:
Cons:
All in all, they are still hitting Mr.Tide’s predictions. Shaping up to be a decent December.
I’m not convinced you swap goalies tonight anything changes.
The 3-1 is such a backbreaker, and it’s vintage Stu. A grade A shot, but one that needs to be stopped.
These are elite athletes- shooting the puck AND trying to stop them. Shooting % and SV% have so much luck in them.
All the shots “need to be stopped.” But luck and skill and what you had for dinner will have their say. So some will not be stopped, and others will be stopped.
I’m way more comfortable with Jarry in the Oilers crease.
Most of the goals he’s allowed were on rebounds he appears to be good with the initial shooter. I think once he gets comfortable with his D men the rebound control will be better. He also seems to be good at seeing through traffic
I do. Skinner let’s in 2 stinkers early and team deflates and lose. Jarry plays good all game and when it’s over gives up a goal to affect nothing but his own save percentage. So the change is Edmonton wins instead of losing.
Yeah, the goalie wasn’t ever really the problem
The third Oiler goal encapsulates Stuart Skinner to mer. 2-1 game and let’s in a softie. I understand that goalies give up softies all over the league. For me it’s not how many he gave them up but when Skinner let those beat him.
Agreed. In watching Jarry in two Oilers games I imagined how the Skinner-haters would have lamented the “soft” goals, the ones “he’d like back,” the ones he “needs to stop.” For a moment there is silence, because it’s the new kid in the crease. I hope that silence continues. Very few of us understand what it takes to actually stand in the Oilers crease, game after game, behind a team that rarely lends a consistent hand to the business of stopping shots and goals. Many fans have rich opinions on what “should” be happening. Let’s give Jarry an extended break from these opinions. They didn’t help Skinner. They won’t help Jarry, or Pickard.
Wow, this sounds like Edmonton is the worst team in the league and goalies just get hung out to dry… Edmonton has been a playoff team 6 years in a row with multi 100+ point seasons. They have been to the Stanley Cup final the past two years. If you look at year end stats Edmonton ranks in the top 10 in the league defensively the last 4 years. There is no excuse for goaltending running at .850 sv%. Just like Bouch, he makes a mistake he is suddenly the worst dman in the league even though all his numbers say different. Watch all the best players and you will see they all make mistakes. That’s why you look at all the stats over a long period of time to see what the body of work of that player actually is. I see people on here complain about McD and Drai when they make a mistake like they are garbage. They are the top 3 players in the entire league tge past 5 years! Like Goldmember said: there is no pleasing you then…
I got chastised for pointing out the bad rebound on the 1st goal that Jarry let in as an Oiler
There are certain metrics when Jarry is trending on elite.
No, he’s not Shesterkin or prime Sarros but everything objective points to an upgrade on Skinner and I think he’s better than most of his numbers indicate.
Its clear last season was an injury-riddles (3 injuries I believe) one-off and he’s a very consistent well above .900 performer.
peak McD performances are so gd money. It’s the drug that’ll drag me back as long as they can push it.
The late GA notwithstanding, that’s a tidy 18:16 for young Mr. Statsney.
Scotty’s boy gets ripped for lots of things, but that move looks to be quite shrewd.
If this is who he is that’s a 3M defender for 825k
All we need is for our goaltender to keep the opposition to under 5 goals
Pittsburgh easily handled yet perfect example of how no goalie will ever sport a .900 for this team: Skinner, Jarry or otherwise.
Looks like Stan solved the goalie issues.
Another garbage time dying seconds goal to crater the save percentage.
Who cares. Jarry played well and got another W. 2-0
All I want is saves at the right time so far so good.
You say that now but Edmonton needs to win a cup or else the .850 goalie with a .700 winning record becomes the scapegoat. Skinner, Jarry, or otherwise.
If you actually watched his two games played and think he wasn’t good then I don’t know what to say…who cares about a couple goals in garbage time when the game is already over.
The “garbage time” goals matter because they show the team (not the goalie) forgetting their job: when in the DZ, keep the puck away from the net. Until this team takes garbage time seriously I doubt they win a Cup. That’s on the Fs as much as the Ds. Certainty not on the goalies, who suffer most from garbage time lapses.
We could of had 2 Cups with above average goaltending 3 with spectacular. I myself would of gambled on a winner in Binnington. I really think he has another gear come playoff time. We could of had 2 runs with him instead we get 3 runs with the often banged up Jarry. Jarry appears to be a steady eddy type that can stop done breakaways unlike our predecessor rarely did.
We could have had one cup of Janmark had a hat trick in game 7 in 2024.
Binnington has had plenty of terrible playoffs runs and he’s been just awful this year.
He’d be one of the last goalies that I would acquire – I wouldn’t take the contract for free (even if we could fit it in.).
8-2 playoff Calvin Pickard (.750 winning record) says hello.
I’m highly confident the goalie cares.
The Stu haters are singing a different song about save percentage.
They’ve backed themselves into a corner if Jarry can’t bring .900 he’ll need to bring a Cup anything short is no better than Skinner.
It’s do or die with Jarry who’s our man for the next 3 Cup runs.
Stupid garbage goals aren’t good for the ol’ save percentage
1st and 3rd in NHL scoring for McDrai. They are inevitable and reports of their demise were very premature
Ya think ol DSF is posting these numbers on an Avs blog to troll the McKinnon crowd?
And making bets with posters on the Avs blog that he won’t pay when he loses, too.
McD takes over the scoring title from Big Mac. Drai #3
You win 🙂
WE win 🙂
BOOM!!! Connor with the gravy!
Never EN doubt
Most goals on Jarry have been on rebounds. First last game was a bad rebound. First this game, a rebound (not bad though) and that last goal a “meh” rebound. Traffic and such but more controllable.
Something to watch for me.
Keep in mind, he’s breaking in new pads. When they’re new and stiff, pucks tend to be a bit more bouncy off them.
Fair point.
Yeah, no real bad goals…but I feel like SCF Bob would have had all of them (other than the last one in garbage time.)
Podkolzin now tied for 51st in 5-on-5 scoring with names like Thompson, Batherson, and Jarvis while also handily outscoring the opposition, being top 10 in hits and PKing. Quintessential complementary player!
I wonder if he also speaks Tikkanese, the Russian version.
I suggest Podkolian.
Hah!😜 My old handle here was Turning Tikkanese! Me likey!
Need the boys to play d for Jarry.
It’s not their thing, apparently. For Jarry, Pickard, Skinner.
Until they do… I doubt there’s a Cup in their future.
Well well, 97 and 29 are now 2nd and 3rd in pts. Though the most impressive may be Mikko with top 5 in points and leading in pims.
and headshots
McDavid is pure peak Supernova right now and its been 6-7 games.
What a pleasure it is to watch – we hadn’t seen in in a very long time – don’t think he got to this level once last year.
What is the crowd saying Boooo or is it
Stuuu???
No, no, they’re saying “Boo-urns”!
Podz is going to wish he negotiated his extension after the season. He’s now on pace for over 20
Stu is going to wish his agent negotiated his extension before the season. Pro sports can be tough.
Bowman didn’t have interest in negotiating in the off-season (I presume that from the fact he’s said there were zero talks).
If his agent had offered to sign for 4 million AAV, I doubt Bowman would’ve said no. He probably would have agreed to term and an NMC.
With what Pittsburg has in goal, I put the over under on the number of games that Stu plays the rest of the season at 10. If he stays in Pittsburg, then I’d hit the under all day long.
He’ll be lucky to get a 2 year deal for backup money next summer:
Because Oilers 🙂
Podz doing it. So happy for him. Solid dude
Podkolzin is inevitable
BOOM!!! Podz cleans it up!!! Suddenly he’s got a nose for the net!!!
The Podz policies real.
Drai is also close to a generational player.
That should read “Podz pop”.
Podzilla!
I’m here for a bottom six lead extension goal.
don’t look now but the Dy’s are 2-0 since the big trade, (with both healthy new players scoring – maybe QHughes was the problem?
This was always a play for 1OA
Probably true. That means they’ll have to get rid of Demko too.
Not sure we have the assets/space for Demko…but man, what a dream add. It’s so rare for elite goalies to hit the market.
Regula makes a few mistakes a game, so doozies, but he also make 3-4 fantastic subtle puck player per. Its worth the growing pains to develop his defensive game for the upside of the puck play.
He was known as a solid defensive player. It’s a learning curve to balance that with making plays in the NHL. I’m sure Bowman will move on or bury him if necessary
So, developing him is out of the question?
If necessary. To hold a spot on this team he will have to be showing constant progression. Bowman may not get rid of him, but I think he will replace him on the roster if he thinks he needs to and if he doesn’t think he’ll clear may trade him
Beauty stick handle by Jarry
That was a little too obvious
Wow Lazar back on the ice???? Good news!
In disbelief that Lazar is on the bench.
That was at least the second ridiculously cheap call. 2 minutes each time for good hockey plays.
Reff’s auditioning for the Olympics.
Wow these ref’s think they are the show…..
Game over half over and Hutson with 3:30 of ice. Cool.
Mostly due to the number of penalties.
I’m not sure what you expected, but it’s his first NHL game.
3rd.
Definitely ready for PP1 and hard matches against the toughs.
That’s game 4.
Is there any room between hard matched against the toughs and 1-2 shifts per period buried on the 4th line?
Perhaps on a 2-way line with a veteran center with skill like Henrique?
Actually his third I think.
3rd. He played in two games back in April right after he signed.
Penalties are a factor but he’s last in ice time at that point (Lazar less at 5 on 5 but hurt).
He played two games last year but that’s neither here nor.
Is there a rule that a raw rookie has to play 1-2 shits per period.
Does it make sense of an offensive minded player, as offensively confident as possible giving him tearing up the 2nd best league in the world gets 1-2 shifts of the 4th line?
The team isn’t a juggernaught and he’s the most unknown quantity. Make sure you win first.
What’s included in the unkown is his ability to impact positively on a strong veteran 3rd line. I think we know that the current third line wingers are not doing that, in particular Mangiapene (and we know Janmark is better suited to a 4th line)
Guessing neither Skinner or Kulak enjoying their debuts as Penguins….
Pittsburgh was definitely not a great landing spot for Skinner.
Like Dubnyk in Arizona – not that the 2 are the same (I’ve argued they are much different in terms of established work), but just not a place to rebuild confidence in one’s stats right now with basically Bouchard on steroids in EK (high chances every direction).
Pitt hasn’t been kind to goalies for a while.
MAF masked alot of that for years
I think you mean Dubnyk in Nashville/Montreal?
He did so well in Arizona that he interfered with their tank job and had to be traded.
Roof de la Bouche! 🚨🚨🚨🚨
BOOM!!! Bouch with patience and a lazer top cheddar!
Skinner would want that one back.
Heard that a few times
Oh thats a BS penalty on Drai…….
Pretty weak
Looks like the Oilers won’t get ‘goalied’ tonight.
That’s the back breaking Skinner type goal Im so familiar with…
I’ll miss his personality but not those back breaking softies. He’s rocking the.786 save percentage.