The Edmonton Oilers are almost a runaway train on this road trip. The road team roared past the Boston Bruins like the home team was a house on the side of the road Thursday. Connor McDavid is running down a dream currently, spectacular play every night. The captain is leading.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: Wild, Kraken, Jets (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- At home to: Sabres, Red Wings (Expected 1-0-1) 1-0-1
- On the road to: TML, Canadiens, Penguins (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- On the road to: Bruins, Wild (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-0
- At home to: VEG, Flames (Expected 1-0-1)
- On the road to: Flames, Jets (Expected 1-0-1)
- At home to: Bruins (Expected 1-0-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-3, 21 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 6-2-1, 13 points in nine games
- Season Record: 17-12-6, 40 points in 35 games
My prediction for the month is on target, but the prediction did not anticipate an injury to Tristan Jarry. Then again, my prediction did not anticipate Tristan Jarry so that’s a thing. We should know more today about the extent of the injury, and a guess would have Matt Tomkins come in and play on the weekend. That’s not ideal, since Tomkins is having a mediocre season in Bakersfield.
There were worries about Jarry’s durability before the trade, and Bowman’s risky move may have been a misstep. On the other hand, Edmonton is 3-0 when Jarry starts. His .887 SP is close to Stuart Skinner’s .891 and well clear of Calvin Pickard’s .857. Samuel Jonsson (.897 in Fort Wayne) and Nathan Day (.895, also in Fort Wayne) are also available.
- Janmark-Henrique-Mangiapane 7:16, 2-2 shots, 89X, 1-0 HDSC
This is the second game in a row the Oilers No. 3 line has delivered a strong expected goal share and a HDSC advantage. Need to score, but 7:16 is a good total and the Bruins were held at bay. Could it be, the Oilers have a No. 3 line? I’m still betting on the Nuge for that role eventually.
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman 11:04 6-6 shots, 41X, 1-2 HDSC
- Podkolzin-Draisiatl-Savoie 6:06, 1-0 shots, 35X
- Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Frederic 5:04, 0-1 shots 37X
- Jones-Frederic-Hutson 3:31, 1-1 shots, 65X, 1-1 HDSC
I’m looking at these numbers and trying to find a positive or negative, but I think the Oilers played pretty well at five-on-five. Edmonton won the HDSC, and lost the shot share 17-14, scored the only goal. I’ll take it. The Bruins chose to run Pastrnak’s group versus Draisiatl’s line and it didn’t go well (0-4 shots). Perhaps more interesting is that Knoblauch decided to run Frederic over Savoie (at some point) on the Draisaitl trio versus Geekie-Lindholm-Pastrnak. It’s all a pretty small sample, but Frederic showed signs of life for sure. Connor McDavid was flying again. Still.
- Jones-Draisaitl-Hutson 46 seconds, 3-0 shots, 1-0 goals, 100X, 2-0 HDSC
Wonderful to see Quinn Hutson go to the net and get rewarded with his first NHL goal. He is a revelation and a reminder that college players can be plug and play. Lots of upset about his lack of playing time, but it will come. Max Jones impressed me before the assist, that was a good game from him. I think he earned another game.
- Ekholm-Bouchard 16:18, 6-1 shots, 89X, 3-0 HDSC
- Nurse-Stastney 14:43, 0-7 shots, 9X, 0-4 HDSC
- Stillman-Emberson 9:33, 3-4 shots, 63X, 2-2 HDSC
The top two lines went 4-0 shots with Evan Bouchard and 3-4 shots with Darnell Nurse. Now, I’m going to suggest that Nurse-Stastney versus David Pastrnak is not a good idea, and suggested as much recently. That said, Knoblauch didn’t have many options and the team survived without surrendering a GA at five-on-five. I think that Stan Bowman needs to find a way to make the top-four defense hum, and the solution may include Nurse on the third pair. The goaltending was very good last night, Tristan Jarry’s injury means we could see a third goalie trade this season. What a time to be alive.
On the Lowdown today, we discuss the goaltending, the Bruins game and a tough weekend ahead for the Oilers without Jarry. I don’t think you can get a goalie here from outside the organization in time for the weekend games, but Jarry arrived because he absolutely, positively had to be there overnight. Steve Lansky is our feature guest, we’re noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Four more tweaks needed for the Oilers.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6899700/2025/12/19/edmonton-oilers-tristan-jarry-roster-depth-chart/
The next two games are back to back the Wild & VGK’s. I guess Ingram will get the VGK.
When the going gets tough the tough get going.
Let’s hope so
Ungar to the Condors as per the Solar Bears site.
In that trade, I certainly didn’t observe a premium for Skinner durability or a discount for Jarry lack thereof. In fact, excluding that factor, it seemed like a deal prioritizing “we just need to get ‘something’ done!” on the Oilers’ part. Now the chickens have come home to roost very very early. Yuck, Stan. If simply not having Stu in the lineup was the goal, sent him down, call up Ingram, and you’d still have Kulak. Yes, I know, hindsight, yadda yadda yadda.
I would have taken Binnington every day of the week.
Now Ingram gets his chance, which is actually a good thing.
And Stastney has looked like a capable replacement for Kulak’
Go figure?
Kulak has been really bad this year and the wheels have fallen off
Kulak was having his worst stretch of hockey in his time with the Oilers. He was really bad this year. Stastny has been a very bright surprise since his short Oiler audition. Definitely an upgrade on the way Kulak was playing. let’s hope he keeps it up.
The mistake for the Oilers was not taking a free upgrade on Pickard.
Pickard is a 33-year-old journeyman goalie with an unorthodox, athletic style coming off a lower body injury during playoffs.
Not a goalie profile that you would expect to age particularly well.
That was a bad bet.
If they had claimed Dipietro or Bussi, they wouldn’t have been as exposed.
Skinner wasn’t good enough, but they would have had more time if Pickard wasn’t pitching .850 goaltending.
But yeah, Jarry had a lower body injury as recently as last month. The Oilers tend to underestimate injury risk and not use it to get appropriate discount.
I was curious as to how the Oilers compare to the top teams after their awakening. The Avs look unstoppable, many good teams rolling. To do that you have to pick a start date, I decided Nov 29 was the best date, as Nov 20 which I was also considering included some bad games (which they haven’t had since), and the numbers didn’t really look that different from the full season ones
I chose 9 teams I am tracking. I see these as the most likely at this point to be dangerous in the playoffs, but things are fluctuating. To me it’s pretty interesting:
OILERS
WINS / POWER WINS – 7 / 7 (Whoopieee)
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 3 / 1
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 0 / 1
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 42 / 24 / 18
AVS
WINS / POWER WINS – 7 / 3
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 2 / 1
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 1 / 1
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 37 / 23 / 14
KNIGHTS
WINS / POWER WINS – 7 / 1
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 1 / 0
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 4 / 1
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 24 / 17 / 7
STARS
WINS / POWER WINS – 7 / 4
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 3 / 1
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 1 / 0
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 32 / 23 / 9
WILD
WINS / POWER WINS – 7 / 2
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 2 / 2
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 0 / 1
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 34 / 19 / 15
CAPS
WINS / POWER WINS – 5 / 3
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 4 / 2
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 0 / 2
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 26 / 18/ 8
CANES
WINS / POWER WINS – 7 / 1
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 2 / 2
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 4 / 0
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 24 / 21 / 3
BOLTS
WINS / POWER WINS – 3 / 3
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 7 / 2
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 0 / 1
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 27 / 25 / 2
panthers
WINS / POWER WINS – 7 / 4
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 2 / 1
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 1 / 1
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 35 / 22/ 13
I find looking at this gives more insight than the narratives we hear, just as the Oilers are going now, some teams are cooling off although their full season stat lines still look great. Happens every season, with a few exceptions like the Bruins’ freak season a couple ago
How things have turned. This is 10 games for us and 9 or 10 for the others except the Knights at 8. The Oilers after their horrid start are now the strongest team by these metrics in Power Wins and Goal Diff (minus SO goals). They also only have 1 extra time game, the PW total shows this but I point it out as it means they are relying less on luck, and winning with strength
The Avs are still doing well, but aren’t as dominant as they started, other teams are playing as well. Because of the start barring catastrophe they will cruise through the rest of the season, although finishing first may not happen. I hope it does and they earn the curse, anything to help the good guys
The Knights are rolling, but they have 5 extra time games out of 8, and far less offense and there is too much luck in them winning 4 out of 5 ET (Extra Time) games
The Stars look good, their Goal Diff is a bit weak
The Wild have turned it on, strong GD (Goal Diff), strong GF, 1 ET game. And Hughes, if they stay tight on D and get goaltending, yikes
Caps are in a funk, but always dangerous with 3 Power Wins
The Canes record is great, but 4 wins in ET, 1 Power Win, low production and a meagre +3. That doesn’t look strong
The Bolts have jumped the rails after negotiating injuries and getting back into the playoffs. 3 wins out of 6 are Power Wins, 1 ET game, but production is low and only +2. Healthy with Vas doing his thing still not an easy out
panthers. Despite the injuries they are coming on. An excellent supplement regime? Out of 7 wins 4 are PW, 1 Clear Loss, 2 ET games and they lost 1, so aren’t riding luck. Strong production and +13
Please Oilers, players and coaches, if you had to endure losing to those guys twice, finally learn the lesson about how much solid team play drives wins, and offense. Only the struggling Bolts have given up more goals – 1 – of these teams. Attention to detail, or the lack of sustaining it, might write the story of their season, again
For clarity, OT-SO is overtime and shoot out. GF-SO and GA-SO are goals either way minus shoot out goals, which is how the league counts them
Ingram to the Oilers and Ungar to Bakersfield. Nice!
Guess they are calling up Connor Ingram
That was according to Spector. Jarry is being flown home for evaluation from doctors. That is never a good positive sign
If they have to call up a goalie, might I suggest Connor Ungar, 3 different teams, 11 games, 2.54 GAA SV% of.944 2 SO and 5-1-4 record, far out performing all ahead of him in the Depth chart
Can he go to Bako if Ingram comes to the NHL? Steady steps upwards, following the Yesavage model.
NST (and Curlock first on my timeline) had the Bruins with only 6 high dangers. Tremendous, playoff-like effort from a surprisingly high scoring team.
I’ll always hate the Bruins because of Andrew Ference. Nothing about him was a captain here. Still mind boggling.
Make a trade for Pastrnak when the Bruins fall off and they decide to get younger and go long with Geekie. Won’t happen but the 2nd best defenceman got traded mid-season so anything’s possible and I stand by my crazy.
Are you okay?
Geekie is already signed long term….$5.5 million until 2031.
Would also be interested in seeing how you would fit Pastrnak’s $11.25 cap hit on the OIlers roster…nevermind his NMC.
Caipirinhas and sun of Rio must be getting to me. Thought Geekie was on a 1 year. Completely wrong there. Thats what i get for a quick hockey check without doing my homework.
As for Pasta, I’m pretty sure i was clear about how crazy it would be. If a player like Pasta was ever moving, it would certainly be of his own volition, so I’m not concerned about any NMC.
It’d be a whopper, they were somehow in on Rantanen last year with even less available/useful assets and cap space, so creativity would have to win the day.
Andrew was the worst Captain we had. He was then worse than Corson who was a prick at the time but he was no Rat Fink like Ference who alienated 90% of his teammates.
If I’m the GM, I recall Ingram, it’s time to see what we have. The structure in Bakersfield has more chaos, time to see if Ingram can step in and step up with the big club.
It might be a toss up between, Ingram. Tomkins, Jonsson & Day at this point.
I think the Pro ceiling and the pedigree on Ingram is higher than the others
And you’re absolutely correct. They have called up Ingram. I would think that will mean Jonsson to Bako & Ungar to join Day in ECHL. May Jarry recover quickly. It will be good to see how Ingram performs at the NHL level.
This might get Ingram going if he can backstop a win against Vegas.
Nice piece LT. I have been thinking about Nuge. He is versatile, but I think he’s a drag on the top line, you and many have mentioned it. Since Nov 20 5v5 Nuge is 8th for forwards in GF%, 9th in HDGF%. Since Nov 29 (which I am going to use as a cut off date for Power Wins) 5v5 GF% Nuge is again 8th, 7th in HDGF%. Connor and Leon are 2nd and 3rd behind our man Podz (Jones is first but I’m not counting him)
Nuge gets by 1st line, and of course on PP, but if they can find or get anyone else with more pop that won’t sell the farm (the concern with Roslovic for me) Nuge winning 3C minutes and helping that line produce something is his best way to help the team, in a very needed area critical to winning deep in playoffs
There are so many examples of Cup winners doing it because of an outscoring 3rd line
Connor seems to be tearing up the league since being reunited with Nuge & Hyman on the top line.
Yes but I think that’s Connor doing Connor, Nuge along for the ride. Since Nov 20 when they starting showing signs of life, 5v5 Connor has 11 pts, Leon 10, Pod 8, Hyman 4, Nuge 4, Savoie 4. Connor could use some help. Nuge’s 1 goal is the least in the top 6
Nuge does so much on the ice that frees up 97 and allows him to wheel. Not saying 3C isn’t the best spot for him, but right now the team is winning, McDavid is flying and Nuge has his paw prints all over the game nightly.
Nuge is the defensive conscience on the line. Without him, McD’s line can’t play defence.
No point scoring a bunch of goals if you have even more scored against you.
Maybe give Samuel Jonsson a look.
If they can’t make a quick deal with the Sabers for Alex Lyon.
Reoccurring groin injuries anyone know the time line? Jarry looked like he tweaked it to me what did everyone else see?
How do you know it’s a groin injury?
What else good it be? The shits-flu-sore tummy? OP is slipping with updates he’s also being really chippy these days. We may need to make a deal for him as well as a goalie. I’m just assuming it’s a groin and you know the old saying about assuming.
Yup.
They mentioned last week on the NHL network he had a groin injury in Pitt earlier. So probably tweaked that ?
I had mentioned previously that Jarry had missed 7 games just recently in November.
Jarry had a seven game gap in November where he didn’t get a start.
14. Nov 3 @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Tristan Jarry
15. Nov 6 vs Washington Capitals – Arturs Silovs
16. Nov 8 @ New Jersey Devils – Arturs Silovs
17. Nov 9 vs Los Angeles Kings – Sergei Murashov
18. Nov 14 @ Nashville Predators – Arturs Silovs
19. Nov 16 vs Nashville Predators – Sergei Murashov
20. Nov 21 vs Minnesota Wild – Arturs Silovs
21. Nov 22 vs Seattle Kraken – Sergei Murashov
22. Nov 26 vs Buffalo Sabres – Tristan Jarry
The difference being the Pens had Silovs & Murashov to back him up.
Oilers have Pickard, Ingram, Tomkins, Jonsson & Day. But if all they need is average goaltending they might be ok.
Bowman gambled on Ingram they tjought he would recover his game with some AHL time. His numbers don’t look good. we have Jarry for 3 playoff runs if Ingram can’t even be back-up then fire him into the Sun and get someone who is. What happens if Pickard gets hot and carries this team next 10 games and beyond you almost owe it to him to sign him for a few years at the value village rate.
What if Ingram gets hot ? I would suggest Ingram is younger than Pickard and more likely to get extended, if he comes back to form, I’m sure he will want to seize the day. I guess we’ll see. They still might need to find a competent backup for Jarry. In fact it would be wise to do so, it may have to wait until after the Christmas trade freeze.
Minor tweak, the way he skated to the bench nobody was sure if he was coming out or not. Back after Xmas.
I’ll venture that you are bang on.
Oilers have now completed all 16 road games against Eastern Conference opponents … in their first 35 games! That must be a record …
If you can tread water through that hell of a schedule, you’ll shine like a diamond all through 2026.
Yes and after this road trip I believe Jack mentioned they don’t go out East again in the New Year . Niiiiiiiiice!
caveat: no Eastern road games until June 2026.
Could we send Jack on an Eastern trip by himself??????
Absolutely a big deal to get the majority of long travel out of the way.
ANA has played 8 of the 16 eastern-division away games while VGK and LAK have only played 7 of the 16.
Oilers still have 4 games against the VGK and 3 against both ANA and the LAK. The Pacific is up for grabs and the Oilers just need to beat their division competition to take the crown.
All manner of schedule quirks this season because of the Olympic break.
Another example…between February 1st and March 9…the Ducks play 9 games…all of them at home.
How about Hutson for Mangi (pressbox) and Jones for Freddy (also pressbox) for a game or two once the team is healthy? I would also get Tomasek back in. He is more impactful than the two just mentioned. Consider him instead of Jones.
Freddy was good last night. Actually has been skating way bette4 the last 3-4 games.
Yes he’s slowly getting there quicker which results in more engagement.
That Nurse line is ghastly. I called it out last night and got told I was cherry picking a one game sample. So how about this full season?
But here’s the big one. His 330 scoring chances against he’s been on the ice for is the most in the NHL. Again a full 30% more than the next worst.
It’s all his little 200 foot mistakes that add up to disaster. O zone time ends when he floats one in from the point or mishandles a puck at the blue line. Too easy on zone entries and too slow back to retrieve pucks so too much zone time. Sometimes too aggressive leaving slot open for scoring chances. Sometimes too passive leading to long stretches off zone time. Poor passings and icings.
The good news is that goals against haven’t quite caught up to his metrics but they inevitably will.
At 9.25M this is costing them Stanley Cups.
He’s been the worst D man last two cup runs.
He has a no-movement clause in his contract that eases in the summer of 2027 iirc. The window opens at that time. Your post is true, but the best thing to do now, as a trade is extremely unlikely, is to play him on the third pair. I know it’s upsetting because of the money, but that’s a sunk cost. No need to double down. Nurse can play huge minutes, just not the toughest ones. I wrote about it in the article today at The Athletic.
They have to wait until Walman returns to do that.
While I agree that Nurse is not worth his contract, your post completely ignores his deployment.
Nurse is getting sent out without McDrai significantly more than Ek or Bouch and his numbers in that time are terrible.
Nurse has played nearly 300 minutes without Drai or McD.
Bouchard has only played 130 without Drai or McD.
I think the bottom six is having a huge impact on Nurse’s numbers. Who you play with matters, a lot. He has also had a rotating cast of partners all year.
Nurse is obviously not worth his contract but your analysis of his numbers this year is missing some important context.
Not to mention, the Oilers have never played Nurse with a competent top 4 NHL defensive partner. apart from with Broberg in the Stanley Cup finals.
Nurse has always been partnered with inexperienced young D, or veteran 3rd pairing quality D. Or 2nd pair left shot D who are playing their offside badly.
100%.
After watching Seth Jones on Florida I wonder how Nurse would perform on a team with dependable 2-way forwards and a decent partner.
True, that’s still more about someone helping Nurse, and it won’t fix his issues. He’s not terrible, also not good outside of games here and there. If everyone can stay healthy, a settled in Walman is the type of D he does better with
Walman looked pretty awful on the right side defensively in the first go at it with Nurse. but the entire Oilers team was looking bad defensively at the time.
The Walman can play the right side is something that I will actually have to see before I believe it.
Maybe the Oilers should just move Nurse to the right side with Walman on the left.
Nurse has all the tools in the box and I wish Holland would of given him the 7 year deal at considerably lower money 5-6 million 2 years earlier. I think the pressure of the max signing does get to him. I think he’ll play another 10 years at a high level he may even improve as he gets older.
This might be a good time for that Alex Lyon trade.
Well the Roster freeze is at midnight tonight, so unless Bowman had a pre deal set to go based on rumours reported by a few local blog heads, pretty unlikely today. But I guess you never know.
Gazola said last night on EST Oilers Post game show that he talked to some sources and they had heard nothing of trade talk or a trade coming down the pike regarding Lyon yesterday.
Gonna require some speedy negotiating… Xmas trade holiday starts at midnight.
Lyon is Buffalo’s most reliable goalie, rocking a .904 behind a bad defensive team.
Iron Lyon Zion has started and won their last 3 games. If I’m Jarmo I’m not trading him.
He played last night if something was in the works he probably would of not played.
Good point
Frederic looked the best he has yet with-the Oil. Beauty pass To Stillman who hit the post. Stillman was solid.
I think Stastny was a great pickup. He can skate and is very smart.
Hutson is a smart player. Kid is going to be a very good NHL player. In a very smal amount of ice time, that line was pretty good.
Sure the 3rd line doesn’t get scored on, but my god there is absolutely no offence at all there. Moving forward they need a way better offensive 3rd line.
Do wonder if Bowman picked up the phone last night and called Buffalo about Lyons again. Lots of rumours about yesterday in regards to him coming here.
It is too bad for Jarry as it looked like he possibly re injured the groin he hurt in Pitt earlier in the season. Lots of exploding heads last night and this morning calling for Bowman’s head in regards to that trade. Is what it is and hopefully it doesn’t become a nagging injury all year. Groin’s can be a big pain .
Great win and the top 6 is scary right now. The 4 th line scored ( with Drai) and hopefully the 3rd starts popping a few. It will be needed.
Do they need a more offensive 3rd line? If the number of goals for and against didnt change for the rest of the year, it would look bad overall and many would complain. But the job would be done. If you have 2 scoring lines and a bottom 6 that doesn’t lose their minutes (or even chips in if you’re Hutson) then thats a win.
Roslovic coming back and performing like he had solves all of this imo.
Walman rounds out the team really nicely with how Stastney-Emberson have played.
Light a candle for Jarry.
It seems like Connor Ungar has gotten lost in the shuffle, putting up crooked numbers in 4 different ECHL cities the past two years. Would love to see him get a shot in Bakersfield at some point.
I can’t find him playing anywhere right now. Where is he?
,.
His stats line have him playing for the Orlando Solar Bears. 5GP 1-0-3 .944/.168
Ungar is actually signed to an NHL deal and is on year 2 of 2 now according to Puckpedia. With his performance I think he should be the one up to Bako at least, if/when Ingram or Tomkins move on up to the big leagues.
Bah you’re right. Deleting my post. Thanks for correction.
Already done as per the Solar Bears site.
NESN gave Picks player of the game. My current thoughts on the goaltending:
Yesterday Hockey Psychology released a great breakdown titled “Is This Going to Happen Again?” on the Oilers’ turn around and how systems execution from forwards contributed directly to defensive breakdowns early in the season. Echoing some of us here, he’s effectively suggesting the goaltending issue has always been overblown in Edmonton. I would highly recommend watching. Spoiler, with a bit of my own interpretation: This team can continue to win with Pickard or Lyon or Ingram. Or Skinner.
I’ll editorialize a bit: If Skinner had to leave it was for a complicated web of reasons, not entirely or exclusively related to winning. Are there better goalies out there? Sure. Is Jarry one of them? Maybe? But this maligned duo of Pickard and Skinner are the only duo in recent memory to backstop a team to two back-to-back Stanley Cup finals. I don’t know how many times I heard the same refrain: “Edmonton can’t go into another playoff run with this same duo.” This is weird, ahistorical nonsense. They were good enough to get them to SCF Game 7, where the offence laid an egg. They followed that up with another trip to the finals where Edmonton was with Florida neck and neck until game 6 when Florida mysteriously was able to win every race to every puck. (But that’s another story.)
They proved themselves capable, yet wear the blame for Edmonton’s forwards’ lack of commitment to defensive structure early in seasons.
Basically if Edmonton plays to its potential, goaltending is a secondary concern. So I am not overly worried about a prolonged Jarry absence per se. Run Pickard-Ingram through the Olympic break if need be, Jarry will return with Edmonton #1 in the Pacific either way.
—- with the rest and more regular schedule particularly January which is their “easiest” schedule in terms of home games vs travel vas playing teams who are on schedules like Edmonton was they should be ok. Even more so if McDrai continues.
— any average goalie would normally win all those games that Jarry started IMO.
— has there been in recent memory a goalie situation as bad as what is current for Oilers for a “contender”? Starting goalie out on a nothing play and history of missed games, a backup well below average and nothing of note in the minors with a pedigree or recent play that says “he’s ready”?
Maybe trade for Skinner?
Hah! I wondered the same thing (but not seriously: the Skinner-haters stand united and are a formidable distraction from what really was ailing this club).
What did I hear, often, recently? Your best goalie is the one who is consistently available. I love Jarry’s stick-work, and hope & pray his injury isn’t significant. Otherwise, no amount of that talented but inconsistently available stick-work “solves” the goalie situation. Which has, finally, (now that F& D appear to be playing w some consistency) become a problem.
People suggesting Jarry “looked great” after those two first wins would never have offered Skinner such compliments but Skinner would have delivered identical results. Actually that point shot from Karlsson was completely saveable and would have generated more hate for poor Stewie.
I don’t know if there has been another contender in similar scenario but also I just want the Oilers to be allowed to be the unique team they are, and let rip. Damn the torpedoes.
I respectfully disagree. Jarry brings a different look to the backstop. His side to side movement is much faster !a more athletic goaltender), and he handles the puck much better. Skinner had a number of games where he let a soft one or two in at bad times in the game deflating the team. Jarry 1st two games let in a goal at the end of the game that was already over. In both those cases his sv% would have been in the 9’s
Late goals against the Oilers also cratered Skinner’s save percentage for most of the last three seasons.
Again I disagree. The majority of the time with Skinner the team was fighting from behind. Skinner had very few games where the game was in the bag and got scored on.
It could also be pointed out that Jarry let in the first shot of the game 6/22 times for Pitt.
That’s just not true or else that would be the narrative, it’s the bad/weak goals against at the worst times that cratered Skinner and his save %
Pickard played very well in the debacle in Montreal. He played well last night.
As some have suggested, the Oilers “goalie problem” was (& remains)D&F defensive inconsistency. If the D&F have gotten their sh*t together perhaps Pickard is plenty good enough to win games. He was in the playoffs (when the D&F played like it mattered).
Agreed the forwards were the main culprits of the early troubles. D and G always take the blame, but they are both vulnerable to forward coverage
I think that much of the discussion around the team carries attribution error. We saw the issue with Skinner against the Pens – the untimely weakish goal that sunk the Pens. Goalie stats are very skater dependant, as has been offered up for a reason why Jarry looks to have played well but has a low SV%
But timeliness is the main thing with goalies for me. I think despite the vocal support for Stu – they liked him of course – team confidence was lost or shaky. Higher event teams need goalies that can make more saves than they should, and when it counts most. No goalie is always that – looks into it years ago showed there aren’t any certain ‘clutch goalies’ – but there are some that seem to do it enough
The attribution error for me is about who did what in their two finals runs. I read that Holland built the team, the goalies got them there, a few other things. For me of the two things I mentioned it was not because, but despite. Holland left with the same holes he inherited, even if he improved the quality to a degree. Stu and Pick played well enough, but the team was rolling and their environment allowed them to play well enough to get enough wins, until the finals
Their stats were not good in each run, and while Pick won games key games in relief, to my eye there was as much luck in that as him playing well, he is all over the place in net, rebounds galore. What has driven their success has mostly been Connor, Drai and Bouch going supernova in the playoffs, and Ek when he was playing well, carrying the team on their backs to the finals, often without a lot of help
If Holland had finally balanced the team, the management had the cajones to force Nurse out (as other teams do), and they had managed to find better goalies, I think they would have got a Cup, maybe two. Despite the ‘supercharged’ opponent
They might have been able to do it with just some of the nagging issues fixed, better team play would have helped the goalies. But it was the quartet to me that drove the bus, elite players with enough experience hitting full prime
I think its the only reasonable counterpoint. But now, to rev.hans’ point above, Skinner’s sense of time includes dependability. And to Hockey Psychology’s point, this team, when playing to its potential, has no business getting outplayed after a bad goal here or there – something almost every goaltender allows from time to time.
And a similar “timeliness” argument is what I was also haranguing Bouchard about for the first two months of the last three seasons, but to little effect. “Wait for the playoffs” is the answer there. But for your back to back SCF duo? Bupkis.
Stu and Pick didn’t increase their level of play in playoffs, and even with the Oilers rolling most opponents were at the bottom in stats, so it wasn’t the skaters sewering them. Bouch rose to historic levels. Connor and Leon as well, healthy Ek was an absolute force
Almost every player plays a role in success for sure. I don’t mean to throw shade on the goalies who give everything they have, to me it’s just the facts as I see them
The only time I ever thought Skinner played like a 1A was in the Dallas series. He made the timely saves, statistically he was worse than OTT but won that series with his timely saves.
Bob had worse stats the next series but won the cup with his timely saves.
This is an excellent post.
For me, Jarry is not substantially better and Stu was good but I prefer a Jarry type tender and like him better as opposed to a Stu type tender. A lot of it falls on the team D (as stated in this thread) esp the forwards coming back and playing the full rink. The risk was injury with the Jarry trade and here we are. I prefer his style in net though by far. Pickard makes some of those saves but he gets out of position more and is more scrambly.
The happy medium is a quiet tender who has that athletic quick movement and decent hockey IQ. The unicorn is a large tender with that type of movement and elite hockey IQ.
No tender will save everything and have good stats with terrible team D in front of them.