The Edmonton Oilers are almost a runaway train on this road trip. The road team roared past the Boston Bruins like the home team was a house on the side of the road Thursday. Connor McDavid is running down a dream currently, spectacular play every night. The captain is leading.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: Wild, Kraken, Jets (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- At home to: Sabres, Red Wings (Expected 1-0-1) 1-0-1
- On the road to: TML, Canadiens, Penguins (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- On the road to: Bruins, Wild (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-0
- At home to: VEG, Flames (Expected 1-0-1)
- On the road to: Flames, Jets (Expected 1-0-1)
- At home to: Bruins (Expected 1-0-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-3, 21 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 6-2-1, 13 points in nine games
- Season Record: 17-12-6, 40 points in 35 games
My prediction for the month is on target, but the prediction did not anticipate an injury to Tristan Jarry. Then again, my prediction did not anticipate Tristan Jarry so that’s a thing. We should know more today about the extent of the injury, and a guess would have Matt Tomkins come in and play on the weekend. That’s not ideal, since Tomkins is having a mediocre season in Bakersfield.
There were worries about Jarry’s durability before the trade, and Bowman’s risky move may have been a misstep. On the other hand, Edmonton is 3-0 when Jarry starts. His .887 SP is close to Stuart Skinner’s .891 and well clear of Calvin Pickard’s .857. Samuel Jonsson (.897 in Fort Wayne) and Nathan Day (.895, also in Fort Wayne) are also available.
- Janmark-Henrique-Mangiapane 7:16, 2-2 shots, 89X, 1-0 HDSC
This is the second game in a row the Oilers No. 3 line has delivered a strong expected goal share and a HDSC advantage. Need to score, but 7:16 is a good total and the Bruins were held at bay. Could it be, the Oilers have a No. 3 line? I’m still betting on the Nuge for that role eventually.
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman 11:04 6-6 shots, 41X, 1-2 HDSC
- Podkolzin-Draisiatl-Savoie 6:06, 1-0 shots, 35X
- Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Frederic 5:04, 0-1 shots 37X
- Jones-Frederic-Hutson 3:31, 1-1 shots, 65X, 1-1 HDSC
I’m looking at these numbers and trying to find a positive or negative, but I think the Oilers played pretty well at five-on-five. Edmonton won the HDSC, and lost the shot share 17-14, scored the only goal. I’ll take it. The Bruins chose to run Pastrnak’s group versus Draisiatl’s line and it didn’t go well (0-4 shots). Perhaps more interesting is that Knoblauch decided to run Frederic over Savoie (at some point) on the Draisaitl trio versus Geekie-Lindholm-Pastrnak. It’s all a pretty small sample, but Frederic showed signs of life for sure. Connor McDavid was flying again. Still.
- Jones-Draisaitl-Hutson 46 seconds, 3-0 shots, 1-0 goals, 100X, 2-0 HDSC
Wonderful to see Quinn Hutson go to the net and get rewarded with his first NHL goal. He is a revelation and a reminder that college players can be plug and play. Lots of upset about his lack of playing time, but it will come. Max Jones impressed me before the assist, that was a good game from him. I think he earned another game.
- Ekholm-Bouchard 16:18, 6-1 shots, 89X, 3-0 HDSC
- Nurse-Stastney 14:43, 0-7 shots, 9X, 0-4 HDSC
- Stillman-Emberson 9:33, 3-4 shots, 63X, 2-2 HDSC
The top two lines went 4-0 shots with Evan Bouchard and 3-4 shots with Darnell Nurse. Now, I’m going to suggest that Nurse-Stastney versus David Pastrnak is not a good idea, and suggested as much recently. That said, Knoblauch didn’t have many options and the team survived without surrendering a GA at five-on-five. I think that Stan Bowman needs to find a way to make the top-four defense hum, and the solution may include Nurse on the third pair. The goaltending was very good last night, Tristan Jarry’s injury means we could see a third goalie trade this season. What a time to be alive.
On the Lowdown today, we discuss the goaltending, the Bruins game and a tough weekend ahead for the Oilers without Jarry. I don’t think you can get a goalie here from outside the organization in time for the weekend games, but Jarry arrived because he absolutely, positively had to be there overnight. Steve Lansky is our feature guest, we’re noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Four more tweaks needed for the Oilers.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6899700/2025/12/19/edmonton-oilers-tristan-jarry-roster-depth-chart/
The Oilers should trade for Charlie Coyle and put him at 3C. 6’3″ 220lbs, Right hand shot, kills penalties, hits, OK on faceoffs, can score at evens, plays well defensively. At 50% salary at the deadline, it could work out.
He was Frederic’s Center in Boston, too. They had a lot of success together. If Oilers can make the dollars work, he’d be a nice addition.
Marchment dealt to CBJ for a 2nd and a 4th.
Danault back to the Habs for a 2nd.
Summarizing!
Lafreniere–along with every other player in the game–was denied soup in a 1-0 Seattle shootout victory. He had a good night on the dot though, winning 10 of 17 draws (58.8%).
Prospecting takes a holiday break until Saturday next.
Hey Lowetide,with your Stones references, don’t forget the great song off the album Goats Head Soup,”Winter”,great song with Mick Taylor standing out as usual back then.
Glad to see the Oilers get it going ,maybe not coaching issue after all,arrows up.
Conspiracy theory warning! Watch the highlights of the Hurricanes-Panthers WWE tilt. Watch the overtime two handed ankle breaker takedown of Seth Jarvis by the Panthers Rodriques as Jarvis bores in on Bob in OT. Jarvis crushes ribs first into the net at speed and then into the boards. Ask yourself “how is there no penalty called”, while the Panthers broadcast crew makes no mention of the obvious. The NHL has no shame.
I believe the oilers knew that they would never win the cup against the Panthers. For reasons other than hockey supremacy. Conspiracy theory rant over.
Kesler obvious interference
Buffalo got screwed t
similar way as well with dallas.
That 1st year vs florida when every panther was acting like they got shot going down runway then turning around right when penalty called.
I truly do believe “growing markets” truly has driven a lot of garbage reffing, suspension and hell even obvious cap circumvention ending because oilers may have done a bit last year.
growing? jesus christ its been 30 years!
So break their faces open then.
The excuses people make for not dealing with the Panthers are embarrassing.
They could’ve handled this all 2 years ago.
On the regular you see multiple infractions ignored defending mcdavid thwt surelybwould get called on anyone else because “they judt can’t call so disproportionate of penalties especially so with him bein part of such a lethal powerplay…just wouldn’t be parity that way”
You have a ref get fired to sun because he was accidentally honest into a hot mic about “looking for something to call on a team ti even it up”
NHL is so blantantly bush league it’s insane.
I’m still utterly confused about how makar wasn’t offside especially so when they called one on the oilers that series after that was eerily similar the opposite way.
Like how?
https://youtu.be/RqPjRJSRgpU?si=BssJyeneakvAwIdj
I am in complete agreement and I feel Florida got away with more than just on ice shenanigans in last year’s Finals. There’s an old school mentality in Canadian hockey where you don’t “complain” about stuff and it lets this horrible nascent “Floridian Culture” take root where a total lack of shame and lack of commitment to fair play (you can figure out what I am talking about) has infiltrated the NHL as much as the rest of society. Half of our sport sees it as MMA adjacent and have started to infer what constitutes success (winning!) in very ominous terms.
Jarventie up on the 1st line and they roll.
Howard with a great dish to Samanski who snipes from distance.
Carfagna with the bomb on the PP.
Jareventie with a beauty offensive zone pass to Samanski for a quick-strike breakaway and a beauty move.
3-1 Condors after 1.
Samanski 2G/1G
Howard with 2 assists
Jarventie and Akey each with 1A.
Can’t wait to see Samanski with Leon guiding the Germans to a Bronze medal. Justin Schultz with the winning goal against Sweden.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=213749
Samanski has 2g 1a through the 1st
Howard with 2 assists as well
Bakersfield’s up 3-1 at the 1st intermission
Would love to see Howard and Jarventie called up for the 2 Calgary games. Anyone dogging it in the bottom 6 next 2 important games gets a seat for 2 games.
That would require two players being waived since Tomasek can’t be sent down as he didn’t come over to ride buses.
Samanski with a 4pt night
Howard with 3pts.
5-4 OT Win for the Condors
WILD are sizzlin’. OILERS are sizzlin’. Cant wait fortomorrow
Jarventie up to play right wing with Samanski and Howard tonight.
Dineen still out (there is apparently a chance he plays this weekend) but Carfagna is back.
Tomkins starts, Ungar tomorrow.
Sherwood with the hatty, he’ll cost a bit to acquire methinks
Lots of comments about injuries and timelines
Having the best players available is always best, but injuries happen, and having a good team effort is key. Adjust and win. Other teams do it, it’s about coaching and player commitment
If Knoblauch gets props for in game adjustments, let’s see multiple game adjustments
If the Oilers played like the revamped Canucks they’d never lose again
Sometimes relying on one player too much is worse than spreading out talent
Not that the Oilers are there, but they do still struggle with involving everyone
Kiefer Sherwood with a natural hat trick.
The price just keeps going up.
We have two superstars, most teams don’t have one. Cashing an ace for two 9’s usually does not work out. To compare our old team it would be the 2006 Oilers vs today’s team. I think with Rollie the old team doesn’t make the playoffs.
The Stones and Tom Petty for song references.
Sitting with my popcorn waiting to see what Old Dutch does with Phillip Danault. Hope Montreal doesn’t do him any favours…
Maybe he could be the Oilers 3c?
He went to LA because he didn’t want to be a 3C, iirc.
That was also many years ago, but I guess it depends on his ego.
Montreal has more of a top nine these days. A first line, but there would be no clear distinction between the 2nd and 3rd lines if Danault returned. He would be likely get Demidov on his wing, to cover for the youngsters defensive liabilities.
Dellow, I highly doubt you read the comments here anymore, but if you do, nice waiver claim,
Well done.
Currently pitching a shutout against the Panthers.
Goalie contracts are such as weird and inefficient commodity in the NHL.
Unproven goalies entering their prime often get discarded for free, but teams also overpay for *proven* talent that’s on aging decline.
GM’s anchor to past performances and playoff memories.
Carolina likes to shop the waiver wire for goalies.
– **Brandon Bussi** – October 5, 2025
– **Cayden Primeau** – November 8, 2025
– **Anton Forsberg** – January 12, 2021
– **Spencer Martin** – January 2024
That is a masterclass in goalie contract procurement.
It’s weird.
for years we watch GM’s kneecap themselves with bad goalie contracts.
Remember when Seguin and Ben were young and Dallas should have won the cup, but they were kneecapped by the Niemi and Lehtonen contracts?
You mean the team that goalies sewer in playoffs so often?
Your work and observations on this are spot on.
It raises the question of what is an appropriate level of compensation for goaltenders.
Well the models say skinner should get paid like 6 mil on his next contract and instead he’s likely to get paid less than 2 so who knows
Yeah…seems almost like a crapshoot.
It would seems the days of signing goaltenders to mega contracts is likely over but starters with a solid multi-season record will likely do fine.
It wasn’t that long ago you were lauding each mega goalie contract, like Shesterkin’s 8 x 11.5m contract, and telling anyone who disagreed that they were wrong.
Welcome to the conversation.
Nonsense.
Sigh
“Harpers Hair
Harpers Hair
Reply to Brogan Rafferty’s Uncle Steve
December 6, 2024 4:03 pm
He’s only 28.
Elite goaltenders have been known to maintain until their mid to late 30’s.
With the cap about to take huge leaps, it won’t be all that expensive in 5 years.”
“Harpers Hair
Reply to Sierra
December 6, 2024 5:52 pm
Elite goaltenders have far more impact on team success than elite forwards or defensemen.
If the top paid forward in the league makes $15 million, $11.5 million is a bargain.”
“Harpers Hair
Reply to iwin76
December 6, 2024 6:22 pm
Goaltenders play 60 minutes a game.
An elite defenseman about 30.
The market for goalies just got reset and will only rise as the cap increases.”
I’m glad you agree your posts are nonsense.
I think what Skinner signs for might surprise you then.
Skinner numbers have been going steadily downhill since his rookie season. I venture that he has the record for being yanked in playoff games. I would say he’s been pulled at least 8 times in his NHL playoff career. I’ve never seen a goalie pulled so often this includes the great Murray Bannerman. All G.M’s watch games after they get bounced and the eyeballs don’t lie when it comes to shaky Skinner at the wrong times.
clearly you’ve never watched a Mike Keenan coached team 🤣 He pulled Ron Hextall 3 times and Chico Resch twice in a single playoff game.
but, yes, Carolina continues to have goalie issues…..
He was. Final 3-4 (shootout).
Small sample size.
The HH kiss of death claims another victim.
Jarry’s injury is a drag for sure. Still, I feel optimistic instead of writing hundreds of comments about specifically how management screwed up, yet again, or why the payer isn’t that good
In this case it’s because Bowman got a goalie who lead the NHL IIRC in GSAx not that long ago, 23-24 on the Coyotes, which would not have been a goalie friendly environment. Also tied for the league lead in shut outs
This fella can play, it’s so much better than what this would have looked like a couple of years ago, so I’m optimistic. That doesn’t mean I’m confident, but I hope he does well and recovers him game starting now
A Jarry Ingram pair playing well would be fine by me
That’s the spirit. Lots of folks fall in love with certain players. Skinner comes across as a very likeable good ole boy. In saying that I watched Mio-Moog-Fuhr-Ranford-Joseph-Roloson-Dubnyk-Talbot who were also likeable humble men get traded. All that matters is whose wearing the crest now. Players come and go I cheer for my team first then for players
I’ve been saying it for weeks, Ingram hasn’t been great, but he’s played better than his stats – lets not forget the AHL is a league of wild mistakes and turnovers and this Condors’ defence has been the poster child for that.
We’ll see, but established NHL tenders that are rebuilding after absences have a real history of having poor numbers in the AHL compared to when they get back to the NHL – the structure and predictability are tiers above.
Woodley even spoke to this likely being a real thing with Ingram given his style.
Recent example: Carter Hart, who was below .840 in the AHL before his call up.
Might as well find out what we’ve got in Ingram. If he somehow puts up a shutout in his first game, then we probably don’t need to expend assets on Alex Lyon. His ceiling was pretty high a couple years back.
Good thing we banked a few points in the first half of the month, now that we’re down to a goalie tandem with an .857 in the NHL and an .856 in the AHL.
Just casually perused the HockeyDB looking at AHL teams. Lots of goalies with low 2 GAA’s and plus .910 SP’s. I love your optimism, hope you are right on this!
Perfect place to train to be an Oilers’ netminder.
Anyone surprised that, per the new updates, Kap, who “could play before Christmas” won’t be back until the new year and, Walman, who was practicing weeks ago, was shut down again and is now still a few weeks plus away.
Roslovic “could play Tuesday” – anyone holding their breath?
Roslovic is on LTIR now to make room for Ingram. So he won’t be back Tuesday if I’m not mistaken.
His LTIR is retroactive. Stauff last night said he expects Roslovic back this coming Tuesday at the latest.
Injury timelines by their nature can’t always be exact and precise. The Walman issue makes sense to me given Gregor reported today it was originally thought to be a bone bruise and then when the swelling went down, they found a slight fracture on the bone. He’s at week 4 of what was eventually determined to be a 5-6 week injury.
I understand the intel on Roslovic – I also know that, since Knob took over, the injury timelines have, with very few exceptions, ALL been off, many well off.
It is completely different than any coach I can remember.
— I can’t stand posts where people go on about how terrible the GM is and how they would do such a a better job
— I can’t believe management went into the season with an injury away from Pickard and some guy they get out of mental rehab who is trying to find his way in AHL after not being on NHL as the only plan if a starter went down.
— I mean yeah you can’t expect to have a Roy and Hasek getting reps in the minors
— If Ingram works out that’s just luck and doesn’t absolve management from how they managed the goalie situation after a few years of it not being good enough.
— I hope they are lucky because it’s not good
I think we have seen the last of that, after Stan gave them a shot at no changes. That ship has sailed
Mental rehab?? I’ve had friends go to rehab for drugs or alcohol, and friends with poor mental health that need medication and therapy.
Not sure mental rehab is a thing…
Perhaps you should educate yourself on what Ingram struggles with? The information is publicly available.
“— I can’t stand posts where people go on about how terrible the GM is and how they would do such a a better job”
Fine. The GM is terrible and I would do a significantly worse job.
I don’t know how to break this to you, but I will try. The whole deal with having a hockey blog (or any other blog) with comments is to facilitate commentary from all participants. Some commentary is more valuable than other commentary, but a lot that is dependent on your point of view. This is the Internet, if you don’t like it, it’s pretty easy to not participate. I personally hate it, but here I am.
— Not sure how the irony of me stating that I can’t stand posters who think they’d do a better job then I proceed to say how I’d do a better job would escape you.
— so to be clear I was being ironic
— while it’s bad luck that Jarry got injured it isn’t bad luck that they were in a position if their starter got injured they were in this position
— Ingram is a good depth bet but it’s not fair to his development to have him thrust into this position. This is setting him up to fail IMO. He’s been very public with the therapy and he’s helped to overcome his demons and by all accounts a good dude and on the mend.
— Hope it works out. It’s not a risk adjusted outcome for him to assume the role as saviour for the team let alone NHL average goaltender though.IMO
Ya. I get irony. The irony of pointing out the irony of the Internet is making my brain hurt. I guess my point was more about the absurdity of Internet blog comments in general, and less about your post. Apologies.
— sure but it’s clear you thought I was serious about hating posters who think they’d ought to be GM. And you missed what I was trying to say :”it’s not good GMng to be in this position”
No, I thought it was funny that you were making comments on other comments on a blog about comments, about other comments and how it’s silly. But you seem a bit sore about it. Is that irony? Honestly I didn’t process anything else about the post, hence the apology.
— now I’ve got “isn’t it ironic” playing in my head !!
Well played.
One weird trick. Do you remember that advertising hook line?
Well, the Avs versus the Oilers at the Western finals was actually closer than some remember.
In game one, the Oilers put six goals past Darcy Kuemper, but still lost.
In the next game, Colorado switched to Pavel Francouz. If you recall, he’s a right glove catcher. It was a little bit like throwing a left-handed pitcher at a lineup used to crushing right handed pitchers.
Francouz, who had a shut out in game two was only scored on twice in game three.
Game four, the Oilers put five goals past Francouz, but lost in overtime.
Other factors in the series, we recall that Draisaitl had a high ankle sprain was skating on one leg. Nurse reportedly had a significant injury as well. Yamamoto was injured by high hit from Landeskog that did not result in a supplementary discipline. The Oilers lacked depth And Brad Malone actually played.
One of the takeaways from the series was the advantage of having a right glove catching goalie as it took a few games for the Oilers muscle memory of shot selections to adjust.
Are there any right-glove catchers out there in the NHL or NHL that you would like to acquire to exploit this one weird trick.?
Oilers drafted one in Daniel Salonen last year. It’s certainly worth exploring.
IIRC, the last one the Oilers drafted–or had play for them–was JDD in 2009-10.
Thanks for that. He might be a ways away, but down the road for sure.
Cal Petersen is one name I had thought of. 31. $775k cap.
Petersen hasn’t been good in along time though.
Next I thought of maybe Dustin Wolf, but he has a $7.5m cap hit next year.
Brandon Bussi also catches right. He has a .911 on the season in 12 NHL games, so I’m assuming he’s not available.
Wolf catches left, no?
Washington has Thompson and Lindgren, both right-catchers. Maybe the latter would be available?
San Jose has one right now in Askarov and one down the road in recent first-rounder Joshua Ravensbergen who plays for Prince George.
Yes, Wolf does catch left. My memory was incorrect.
Washington is interesting. Thompson has 24 starts with a pristine .925 this season.
League average this season is currently.899.
.925 is practically insane.
Lindgren could possibly be available, but he has $3m cap which would probably be too expensive for us.
If San Jose had an appetite to move Askaraov, he’s be an amazing target.
If our new starter Pickard beats Minny Saturday afternoon is it possible he plays Sunday night against our rival Vegas?
I think your on to something Reja just like you brought up trading Tomasek if he’s not a fit here to a team that also had a interest in him this Summer. You mentioned this way before any of the cool kids even thought this would be the option instead of going to Bakersfield. Bring up Howard stick him on a 3rd line with Hutson and watch the young guys that aren’t complacent like Mangiapane-Henrique how it’s done. K.K needs to get out the frozen boot on a few veterans. I understand saving yourself for the playoffs but you can’t seat and watch Connor-Leon every night without contributing.
Did you forget to log in to your burner account? It’s generally frowned upon to reply in agreement to your own post.
Lighten up I know it’s hot mic.
Are you patting yourself on the back for something that hasn’t happened and likely won’t happen as Tomasek has zero trade value and potentially negative trade value?
Any trade would be a team agreeing to take on the contract and likely adding acquisition cost nomially.
Some of us are ahead of the curve. I gave my opinions on Tomasek the moment he was signed. I don’t need to be spoonfed all my information. I’m a 300 hitter when it comes to reading tea leaves over a 20 year span that gets you 2700>3000 hits and a place in Cooperstown.
Could you please post the URL for the site on which you are batting 300.
You are below the mendoza line this season.
They’ve called up Ingram why not give him a shot against VGK. Who knows maybe they put Ingram in against the Wild & save Pickard for VGK?
I agree but I was sternly lectured on this very blog on many occasions that Ingram was a longer term project even though he’s in a contract year. To think otherwise was insensitive.
Keith Gretzky figures he’s mentally up for the challenge. I’d take his word for it.
Keith is a down to earth human being. I’m sure he’s put very little pressure on Ingram. Maybe this is just what the doctor ordered for Ingram to be back in the show and thrust into the most important game of the year in my opinion.
No
If Pickard has a strong game in Minny I’ve seen stranger decisions then coming right back with him in a important game.
They are travelling from Minny to Edmonton to play the next day – they aren’t playing him in both games.
Lets start with Pickard have a “quality start” and go from there.
Prospectomingo!
It’s the Tommy Lafreniere show again in his final game before the holiday break.
The field is catching up to him, as he is now in a three-way tie for 3rd in WHL goals, three back of the top.
He gets the chance to fill the net against the Birds of Thunder when the puck drops at 8 p.m. Beauvallon time.
So hey.
How about that kid
LaneQuinn Hutson?Looks like a breath of fresh air in the bottom six.
A guy with skill who can handle the puck, move laterally with the puck in the offensive zone… some skill.
Speaking of six. I see he got six and a half minutes of ice time. Hoping to see more.
Nice signing by Bowman.
I’m guessing that since he scored but didn’t get the first star, the coach will allow him to play tomorrow, but cut his time down to 4 minutes…
Been a long time since there was any found money type move
Bowman has done a remarkable job filling in in the edges of the roster for value with guys like Podkolzin, Regula, Emberson, Stastney, Hudson, and likely Howard.
That’s partly why the Mangiapane and Frederic contracts are so frustrating.
The Oilers do much better shopping in the younger player aisle.
Likely Howard is a fantastic potential nickname.
When it comes to wingers the speed has picked up with younger green hands. Once the playoffs and actual hitting occurs it’s a totally different games. Could you imagine Raffi Torres destroying these wingers prancing around without a care in the world.
I was just thinking about Torres. Torres was brutal, but there was some honesty in that era and ultimately at least punishment.
Now we have to deal with guys like Sam Bennett who get away with chicken wings on Stolarz or *accidentally* colliding with McDavid while he is two feet off the ground in mid air, or Marchment finishing the check through the hands on Hyman, or JT Miller blatantly cross checking Draisaitl in the ribs repeatedly, with no penalty or discipline.
Bennett was doing anything to try and flop on Skinner last playoffs.
We had Hertl in the Vegas series blindly cut through the blue paint backwards and *accidentally * fall on Pickard’s leg.
It’s an open season on goalies during the playoffs unless the NHL figures it out.
“It’s an open season on goalies during the playoffs unless the NHL figures it out.”
Yes. And, Ugh.
The disproportionate response to Brandon Hagel tells you all you need to know about Colin Campbells son being on the team.
This is the only conspiracy i truly believe because the Panthers have injured him 3 times to the head since his suspension and none of the players involved received discipline.
Mcdavid got 3 games for Christs sake and Garland got up and fought back (while Tyler Myers did the same thing to Bouch and got nothing.)
Parros player safety is the definition of a joke.
That’s why Clattenburg was so valuable. He’s a smart kid that can skate better than half the league. He will flatten anybody from Marchand to Bennett to their toughest player. Clattenburg will destroy you if you get to cocky like Bennett was allowed to with no repercussions. 2 years in a row Bennett made it to the final healthy. As a Coach no way I allow my Goalie to be injured accidentally on purpose. Hertl should of paid the price for costing us the Cup.
Give it time. Since Nov 20 Breadman at 5v5 is GF% 50 6-6, just behind Connor. Fred is 42.86 and 3-4. Jan Fred and Henri are the only guys underwater, the latter at GF% 25
If the team keeps playing well I think confidence (and their more typical games) will come for the older acquisitions
It was, credit to Quinn because he took a significant jump through work
It would be something if he stayed on that 4th line and both Janmark and Mang stayed on the third.
I guess the Oilers are 7-2-1 in their last 10 and that veteran black hole of a third line is actually doing great in possession numbers and not giving up much but, this kid needs to play with some more talent.
I’d be OK, I guess, if they kept the lines but coach made a real commitment to rotating Drai (and maybe the odd McDavid or Nuge) through and get Quinn up to 9-10 minutes per game unless there is an in-game reason not to – a real in-game reason.
At this point for me, you go get DiPietro and have him challenging Jarry for starter. I love Pickard just because he’s a gamer and that’s my favourite type of player to cheer for but DiPietro isn’t getting the shot in Boston or anywhere else, there’s a good shot he’s an at least average NHL goalie and if he makes it, he takes over for Jarry 100% in a couple years if it doesn’t work out with him.
Can not be a crazy demand for him in return so maybe
Option 1
Nathaniel Day
2028 3rd which ever is better of St Louis or Edmonton’s.
Option 2
Paul Fischer (a little reluctant since he is currently putting up the 2nd ppg by a dman in the Big 10 in the last 3 seasons and currently ranks number one for D men in the league)
Option 3
Nikita Yevseyev
I think it wise Oil maintain a robust and quality pipeline of blue. Ek is on the decline and Nurse you jettison first chance. What if Walman injuries persist and continue? That’s half the D corps right there, and worst case their replacement is a near-future need.
Also: I’m hopeful for Emberson and Regula, but what if after their long auditions they simply can’t cut it? Then all they have left is Bouch n Statsney. and maybe one kid currently on the farm.
Bowman has shown an ability to make deals, and sell Connor and Leon to potential signers
Not a lotta Kulak grade FA agent signings out there. Sure you can get a guy, sell him on the Glimmers, but the McDavid extension makes cap-smart acquisitions more important than ever.
They’ve already used up all their wiggle. Soup. Trent. Mangiopane. Maybe Magpie rebounds, and it’s only a two year contract, but it’s just another example of an unforced error with cap implications holding them back.
I think that the Oilers’ play will be to add another AHL goalie they can call up later in the season/during the playoffs. They seem to be very averse to moving or demoting Pickard right now so this seems to be what they’ll have to do depending on how long Jarry is out. If it’s expected to be more than 2 weeks, I suspect we’ll see an experienced goalie like Lyon added instead.
I do not want us to trade Paul Fischer.
I’m pretty sure Bowman doesn’t want to trade Fischer either, not when he is the return for letting Holloway and Broberg walk.
Paul Fisher is the most under-rated prospect in the org but I presume Bowman isn’t one that under-rates him. Recall, Bowman said he had seem him play about 100 times over the year – a targeted add.
He’s been know as an elite defender and he has popped big time 2-ways this season.
I can’t wait to get him signed and to Bako after his season is over.
I have Fischer No. 7, think that’s fair.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6860320/2025/12/07/edmonton-oilers-top-20-prospects-ranking-winter-2025/
Yup, that’s fair – most Oiler fans, even those farily up to speed with the team have him as an afterthought it seems.
I personally don’t know how to slot in this year’s draftees but I think I would have Fischer ahead of them.
The next two games are back to back the Wild & VGK’s. I guess Ingram will get the VGK.
When the going gets tough the tough get going.
Let’s hope so
Ungar to the Condors as per the Solar Bears site.
I completely forgot about Ungar. Considering he’s rocking a 0.944 save % while playing on a team that’s sitting 13th in the standings (out of 15) that has to be a good sign, no?
Hopefully he can do well in Bake, maybe we have him and Jonsson coming down the pipe in a few years, that would be a massive turn up for the books.
Ungar has been a gun for hire this season, posting consistently elite numbers with 3 different ECHL teams, one a top team in the league (Fort Wayne) and other 2 , tied for 2nd last in win percentage.
It will be interesting to see how his AHL stats look on a defensively challenged AHL team, when compared to the 2 terrible ECHL teams where he absolutely crushed it.
It made me think of the previous amateur FA goaltender the Oilers had signed, Ryan Fanti. He is now in Tampa’s organization where he is doing well, after a rocky start his pro career in the Edmonton Organization.
I won’t at all be surprised if Ungar steals the starter’s role with the Condors. This could shape up to be a very compelling development.
The fact he only has 1 win in 5 games with Orlando with a .945 save percentage is pretty crazy.
also that he has a .945 on 3 different teams this year. Very impressive
Ungar needs to shave his sideburns because they loaned him, recalled him and loaned him again in the ECHL despite having a .944/5 on three different teams. Hopefully he forces the team to keep him in the AHL for the rest of the season.
In that trade, I certainly didn’t observe a premium for Skinner durability or a discount for Jarry lack thereof. In fact, excluding that factor, it seemed like a deal prioritizing “we just need to get ‘something’ done!” on the Oilers’ part. Now the chickens have come home to roost very very early. Yuck, Stan. If simply not having Stu in the lineup was the goal, sent him down, call up Ingram, and you’d still have Kulak. Yes, I know, hindsight, yadda yadda yadda.
I would have taken Binnington every day of the week.
Now Ingram gets his chance, which is actually a good thing.
And Stastney has looked like a capable replacement for Kulak’
Go figure?
Kulak has been really bad this year and the wheels have fallen off
I didn’t want to say Stastney is better than Kulak at this stage of his career,
You said it for me.
Kulak was having his worst stretch of hockey in his time with the Oilers. He was really bad this year. Stastny has been a very bright surprise since his short Oiler audition. Definitely an upgrade on the way Kulak was playing. let’s hope he keeps it up.
The mistake for the Oilers was not taking a free upgrade on Pickard.
Pickard is a 33-year-old journeyman goalie with an unorthodox, athletic style coming off a lower body injury during playoffs.
Not a goalie profile that you would expect to age particularly well.
That was a bad bet.
If they had claimed Dipietro or Bussi, they wouldn’t have been as exposed.
Skinner wasn’t good enough, but they would have had more time if Pickard wasn’t pitching .850 goaltending.
But yeah, Jarry had a lower body injury as recently as last month. The Oilers tend to underestimate injury risk and not use it to get appropriate discount.
They should have done that, but because of the player’s feelings about the incumbents Bowman gave them time. I think it was the right thing to do, to keep the room from having issues. After the first 30 it would be hard to complain about changes
The trouble is that the acquisition cost is a lot higher in-season.
Sounds like the room decided to me.
Binnington is a tough competitor and I like those type of players that can shift to a higher gear
Jarry isn’t even injury prone – he’s missed like 30 games due to injury in his career.
Skinner has been particularly durable though.
The on-ice play this season and during their career has Jarry as a clear and objective upgrade on Skinner.
Why in the world would you want Binnington – maybe the worst goalie in the league and a hot-head.
I don’t know, but, for me, I prioritize actual performance over health.
What is concerning is the bulk of Jarry’s injuries have been in the past 3 years, since Jan/23. One article I saw also mentioned in 22/23 there were instances in addition to the official IR listings where he wasn’t 100% and unable to start. To average his injuries over his entire career doesn’t reflect the concerning trend.
I was curious as to how the Oilers compare to the top teams after their awakening. The Avs look unstoppable, many good teams rolling. To do that you have to pick a start date, I decided Nov 29 was the best date, as Nov 20 which I was also considering included some bad games (which they haven’t had since), and the numbers didn’t really look that different from the full season ones
I chose 9 teams I am tracking. I see these as the most likely at this point to be dangerous in the playoffs, but things are fluctuating. To me it’s pretty interesting:
OILERS
WINS / POWER WINS – 7 / 7 (Whoopieee)
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 3 / 1
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 0 / 1
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 42 / 24 / 18
AVS
WINS / POWER WINS – 7 / 3
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 2 / 1
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 1 / 1
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 37 / 23 / 14
KNIGHTS
WINS / POWER WINS – 7 / 1
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 1 / 0
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 4 / 1
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 24 / 17 / 7
STARS
WINS / POWER WINS – 7 / 4
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 3 / 1
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 1 / 0
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 32 / 23 / 9
WILD
WINS / POWER WINS – 7 / 2
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 2 / 2
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 0 / 1
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 34 / 19 / 15
CAPS
WINS / POWER WINS – 5 / 3
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 4 / 2
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 0 / 2
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 26 / 18/ 8
CANES
WINS / POWER WINS – 7 / 1
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 2 / 2
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 4 / 0
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 24 / 21 / 3
BOLTS
WINS / POWER WINS – 3 / 3
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 7 / 2
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 0 / 1
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 27 / 25 / 2
panthers
WINS / POWER WINS – 7 / 4
LOSS / CLEAR LOSS – 2 / 1
OT-SO WINS / OT-SO LOSS – 1 / 1
GF-SO / GA-SO / GOAL DIFF – 35 / 22/ 13
I find looking at this gives more insight than the narratives we hear, just as the Oilers are going now, some teams are cooling off although their full season stat lines still look great. Happens every season, with a few exceptions like the Bruins’ freak season a couple ago
How things have turned. This is 10 games for us and 9 or 10 for the others except the Knights at 8. The Oilers after their horrid start are now the strongest team by these metrics in Power Wins and Goal Diff (minus SO goals). They also only have 1 extra time game, the PW total shows this but I point it out as it means they are relying less on luck, and winning with strength
The Avs are still doing well, but aren’t as dominant as they started, other teams are playing as well. Because of the start barring catastrophe they will cruise through the rest of the season, although finishing first may not happen. I hope it does and they earn the curse, anything to help the good guys
The Knights are rolling, but they have 5 extra time games out of 8, and far less offense and there is too much luck in them winning 4 out of 5 ET (Extra Time) games
The Stars look good, their Goal Diff is a bit weak
The Wild have turned it on, strong GD (Goal Diff), strong GF, 1 ET game. And Hughes, if they stay tight on D and get goaltending, yikes
Caps are in a funk, but always dangerous with 3 Power Wins
The Canes record is great, but 4 wins in ET, 1 Power Win, low production and a meagre +3. That doesn’t look strong
The Bolts have jumped the rails after negotiating injuries and getting back into the playoffs. 3 wins out of 6 are Power Wins, 1 ET game, but production is low and only +2. Healthy with Vas doing his thing still not an easy out
panthers. Despite the injuries they are coming on. An excellent supplement regime? Out of 7 wins 4 are PW, 1 Clear Loss, 2 ET games and they lost 1, so aren’t riding luck. Strong production and +13
Please Oilers, players and coaches, if you had to endure losing to those guys twice, finally learn the lesson about how much solid team play drives wins, and offense. Only the struggling Bolts have given up more goals – 1 – of these teams. Attention to detail, or the lack of sustaining it, might write the story of their season, again
For clarity, OT-SO is overtime and shoot out. GF-SO and GA-SO are goals either way minus shoot out goals, which is how the league counts them
Thanks for doing this.
Thing i am interested in is how Avs and Wild fair with “smaller end” size players
Tied for shortest average height @6’0″
(LAK,VGK,DAL,WPG, CHI among the 11 teams tied for tallest @6’2″)
Avs tied for second last lightest weight @ 194 lbs
Wild in about 8 teams including Oilers tied for 16th @198lbs
(LAK & DAL in group w/ TOR tied for heaviest @205 lbs, ANH & VGK in 2nd group @ 203 lbs group, WPG in next group @201 lbs)
Suprisingly Chicago is average 196 lbs.
I’ll add 2nd part in 1st comment here.
Best of west defense averages
COL: 6’2″ 199 lbs
MiN: 6’1″ 197 lbs
DAL: 6’4″ 209 lbs
WPG:6’3″ 207 lbs
VGK: 6’3″ 210 lbs
LAK: 6’3″ 208 lbs
EDM: 6’2″ 205 lbs
It kind of seems like a pretty key difference relative to the rest that might hamper playoff success given NHL way of doing business.
Edit might as well add
ANH: 6’2″ 206 lbs
CHI: 6’3″ 206 lbs
And this is for all defense on roster. For sure MIN is even smaller if you manually were to do just hypothetical best top 6.
Jonathan Willis dug into this
https://corsiknight.substack.com/p/the-nhl-and-nhl-champions-are-getting
I think ability still comes first, and part of that is knowing how to play successfully against larger opponents. When folks get excited about smaller prospects I wait to see, it’s a tough road for them. Hutson is a nice surprise, but he has taken steps quickly that most don’t seem to, addressing what the coaches said he should. Smaller guys need to not be intimidated by NHL physical play and be judicious taking and giving comtact
My take on Willis’ piece was that height (reach, leverage) aren’t dropping as quickly as weight, and that is because speed is becoming more desired
Averages also hide specifics. On the Avs Manson and Burns average 6’4 223.5lbs, the other 4 average 5’11.5 184.5lbs. Makar at 27 seems to have had a growth spurt, or his stats are inflated, I’ve looked at his size before and he’s a fair bit taller and heavier now, so they’re probably even smaller
I do think size matters more on D if the player isn’t a top talent. Boxing out and using the stick to disrupt plays is easier the taller the player. Not to mention that if the player is also mean, forwards who are mostly smaller than D might avoid the paint more – the classic getting pushed out of games
I think the Avs are vulnerable to an aggressive forechecking, hitting team like the panthers, who Maurice has trying to get as many hits as possible on the D, especially if the refs are turning a blind eye. Teams have gotten to Quinn Hughes even with his elite skating
While I appreciate the effort you put into tracking this, I don’t think it captures the different styles of play around the league.
I don’t know how many Avalanche games you watch but they are all in on spending a minimum amount of time in the their own zone and counter attacking with a 5 man unit.
To forecheck them as you advise sounds easy but when their D, assisted by forwards, are incredibly adept at moving the puck quickly and accurately while also joining the play in the offensive zone…they are very, very hard to hit.
This is reflected in how dominant they are in preventing goals against.
At the moment they are the best defensive team in the league allowing only 2.21 GA/GP substantially better than the second place Capitals at 2.47 and better than all of the supposed “heavy” defensive teams in the league…LAK, MIN, DAL.
This approach, of course, is also paying off in a couple of other ways with both Wedgewood and Blackwood carrying .920 save percentages and GAA slight over 2.
They are also the highest scoring team in the league at 4.03 GF/GP which is significantly higher than second place Anaheim 3.44.
No worries, it interests me
Once I managed to bumble spreadsheets and a dashboard (or two) together, it’s just a matter of plugging all of the scores in, hopefully correctly as I have to keep an eye on EN goals
I also track wins and losses against playoff teams, and comebacks and leads lost as they speak to team strength. Too many is a bad thing. I will add that to the next one
Ingram to the Oilers and Ungar to Bakersfield. Nice!
Guess they are calling up Connor Ingram
That was according to Spector. Jarry is being flown home for evaluation from doctors. That is never a good positive sign
If they have to call up a goalie, might I suggest Connor Ungar, 3 different teams, 11 games, 2.54 GAA SV% of.944 2 SO and 5-1-4 record, far out performing all ahead of him in the Depth chart
Can he go to Bako if Ingram comes to the NHL? Steady steps upwards, following the Yesavage model.
If he continues his play in Cali, that would be fantastic.
NST (and Curlock first on my timeline) had the Bruins with only 6 high dangers. Tremendous, playoff-like effort from a surprisingly high scoring team.
I’ll always hate the Bruins because of Andrew Ference. Nothing about him was a captain here. Still mind boggling.
Make a trade for Pastrnak when the Bruins fall off and they decide to get younger and go long with Geekie. Won’t happen but the 2nd best defenceman got traded mid-season so anything’s possible and I stand by my crazy.
Are you okay?
Geekie is already signed long term….$5.5 million until 2031.
Would also be interested in seeing how you would fit Pastrnak’s $11.25 cap hit on the OIlers roster…nevermind his NMC.
Caipirinhas and sun of Rio must be getting to me. Thought Geekie was on a 1 year. Completely wrong there. Thats what i get for a quick hockey check without doing my homework.
As for Pasta, I’m pretty sure i was clear about how crazy it would be. If a player like Pasta was ever moving, it would certainly be of his own volition, so I’m not concerned about any NMC.
It’d be a whopper, they were somehow in on Rantanen last year with even less available/useful assets and cap space, so creativity would have to win the day.
His NMC wouldn’t be an issue if he wanted out, he’d definitely be open to playing with one of his best buds in Draisaitl.
Andrew was the worst Captain we had. He was then worse than Corson who was a prick at the time but he was no Rat Fink like Ference who alienated 90% of his teammates.
I think the definitive article on Shayne Corson has already been written by our late friend Bruce McCurdy.
If I’m the GM, I recall Ingram, it’s time to see what we have. The structure in Bakersfield has more chaos, time to see if Ingram can step in and step up with the big club.
It might be a toss up between, Ingram. Tomkins, Jonsson & Day at this point.
I think the Pro ceiling and the pedigree on Ingram is higher than the others
And you’re absolutely correct. They have called up Ingram. I would think that will mean Jonsson to Bako & Ungar to join Day in ECHL. May Jarry recover quickly. It will be good to see how Ingram performs at the NHL level.
This might get Ingram going if he can backstop a win against Vegas.
Nice piece LT. I have been thinking about Nuge. He is versatile, but I think he’s a drag on the top line, you and many have mentioned it. Since Nov 20 5v5 Nuge is 8th for forwards in GF%, 9th in HDGF%. Since Nov 29 (which I am going to use as a cut off date for Power Wins) 5v5 GF% Nuge is again 8th, 7th in HDGF%. Connor and Leon are 2nd and 3rd behind our man Podz (Jones is first but I’m not counting him)
Nuge gets by 1st line, and of course on PP, but if they can find or get anyone else with more pop that won’t sell the farm (the concern with Roslovic for me) Nuge winning 3C minutes and helping that line produce something is his best way to help the team, in a very needed area critical to winning deep in playoffs
There are so many examples of Cup winners doing it because of an outscoring 3rd line
Connor seems to be tearing up the league since being reunited with Nuge & Hyman on the top line.
Yes but I think that’s Connor doing Connor, Nuge along for the ride. Since Nov 20 when they starting showing signs of life, 5v5 Connor has 11 pts, Leon 10, Pod 8, Hyman 4, Nuge 4, Savoie 4. Connor could use some help. Nuge’s 1 goal is the least in the top 6
Nuge does so much on the ice that frees up 97 and allows him to wheel. Not saying 3C isn’t the best spot for him, but right now the team is winning, McDavid is flying and Nuge has his paw prints all over the game nightly.
I know Nuge is a good player, but if he was doing as much as is needed in that position it would show in his 5v5 points. He has 1 goals and 3 assists since Nov 20. Playing with the world’s best player. Hyman has 5 points and 3 are goals
Leon’s wingers are doing better, even though he scores 46% of his points on PP, Connor is 41%. Rookie Savoie has 4 points and Podz 8
The top 2 lines are rolling, I just wish the top line had more even production – so it isn’t totally relying on Connor
Nuge is the defensive conscience on the line. Without him, McD’s line can’t play defence.
No point scoring a bunch of goals if you have even more scored against you.
That’s what we hear, but is he? Last 10 games With forwards he’s 7th in GF% at 5v5 (if we take Jones out) behind the rest of the top 6, and the much maligned Mangiapane
Truth be told, as Supernova as McDavid is right now, his points at 5 on 5 are not off the charts – he’s got 8 5 on 5 points in those last 8 games (Vehege and Necas each have 10).
The Oilers are 7-2-1 as a team so no need for changes but that 1st line shouldn’t be seen as un-breakable.
With that said, taking another look, goal shares for that line is 9-4, that’s pretty good – they aren’t getting scored on (once every two games).
If the Avalanche ever get their powerplay clicking, the scoring race will be over very quickly.
MacKinnon has 45 EVP…Necas has 37…McDavid has 32
If the Oilers get their 5 on 5 game going, the scoring race will be over very quickly.
Maybe give Samuel Jonsson a look.
If they can’t make a quick deal with the Sabers for Alex Lyon.
Reoccurring groin injuries anyone know the time line? Jarry looked like he tweaked it to me what did everyone else see?
How do you know it’s a groin injury?
What else good it be? The shits-flu-sore tummy? OP is slipping with updates he’s also being really chippy these days. We may need to make a deal for him as well as a goalie. I’m just assuming it’s a groin and you know the old saying about assuming.
Yup.
They mentioned last week on the NHL network he had a groin injury in Pitt earlier. So probably tweaked that ?
I had mentioned previously that Jarry had missed 7 games just recently in November.
Jarry had a seven game gap in November where he didn’t get a start.
14. Nov 3 @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Tristan Jarry
15. Nov 6 vs Washington Capitals – Arturs Silovs
16. Nov 8 @ New Jersey Devils – Arturs Silovs
17. Nov 9 vs Los Angeles Kings – Sergei Murashov
18. Nov 14 @ Nashville Predators – Arturs Silovs
19. Nov 16 vs Nashville Predators – Sergei Murashov
20. Nov 21 vs Minnesota Wild – Arturs Silovs
21. Nov 22 vs Seattle Kraken – Sergei Murashov
22. Nov 26 vs Buffalo Sabres – Tristan Jarry
The difference being the Pens had Silovs & Murashov to back him up.
Oilers have Pickard, Ingram, Tomkins, Jonsson & Day. But if all they need is average goaltending they might be ok.
Bowman gambled on Ingram they tjought he would recover his game with some AHL time. His numbers don’t look good. we have Jarry for 3 playoff runs if Ingram can’t even be back-up then fire him into the Sun and get someone who is. What happens if Pickard gets hot and carries this team next 10 games and beyond you almost owe it to him to sign him for a few years at the value village rate.
What if Ingram gets hot ? I would suggest Ingram is younger than Pickard and more likely to get extended, if he comes back to form, I’m sure he will want to seize the day. I guess we’ll see. They still might need to find a competent backup for Jarry. In fact it would be wise to do so, it may have to wait until after the Christmas trade freeze.
The moment they acquired Jarry was the moment they needed to upgrade Pickard.
To be honest, we needed a Pickard upgrade even before that even
Even a healthy Jarry can’t handle Skinner’s start percentage.
Pickard can’t start a higher percentage of games than he already has.
I guess we’ll see if they already have an upgrade on Pickard with Ingram.
You are bang this is a chance of lifetime for Ingram I hope he smashes it and finds a home in Edmonton for the next cheap 2 years. If he’s lost his capability then it’s time to move from him
Minor tweak, the way he skated to the bench nobody was sure if he was coming out or not. Back after Xmas.
I’ll venture that you are bang on.
Oilers have now completed all 16 road games against Eastern Conference opponents … in their first 35 games! That must be a record …
If you can tread water through that hell of a schedule, you’ll shine like a diamond all through 2026.
Yes and after this road trip I believe Jack mentioned they don’t go out East again in the New Year . Niiiiiiiiice!
caveat: no Eastern road games until June 2026.
Could we send Jack on an Eastern trip by himself??????
Absolutely a big deal to get the majority of long travel out of the way.
ANA has played 8 of the 16 eastern-division away games while VGK and LAK have only played 7 of the 16.
Oilers still have 4 games against the VGK and 3 against both ANA and the LAK. The Pacific is up for grabs and the Oilers just need to beat their division competition to take the crown.
All manner of schedule quirks this season because of the Olympic break.
Another example…between February 1st and March 9…the Ducks play 9 games…all of them at home.
How about Hutson for Mangi (pressbox) and Jones for Freddy (also pressbox) for a game or two once the team is healthy? I would also get Tomasek back in. He is more impactful than the two just mentioned. Consider him instead of Jones.
Freddy was good last night. Actually has been skating way bette4 the last 3-4 games.
Yes he’s slowly getting there quicker which results in more engagement.
That Nurse line is ghastly. I called it out last night and got told I was cherry picking a one game sample. So how about this full season?
But here’s the big one. His 330 scoring chances against he’s been on the ice for is the most in the NHL. Again a full 30% more than the next worst.
It’s all his little 200 foot mistakes that add up to disaster. O zone time ends when he floats one in from the point or mishandles a puck at the blue line. Too easy on zone entries and too slow back to retrieve pucks so too much zone time. Sometimes too aggressive leaving slot open for scoring chances. Sometimes too passive leading to long stretches off zone time. Poor passings and icings.
The good news is that goals against haven’t quite caught up to his metrics but they inevitably will.
At 9.25M this is costing them Stanley Cups.
He’s been the worst D man last two cup runs.
He has a no-movement clause in his contract that eases in the summer of 2027 iirc. The window opens at that time. Your post is true, but the best thing to do now, as a trade is extremely unlikely, is to play him on the third pair. I know it’s upsetting because of the money, but that’s a sunk cost. No need to double down. Nurse can play huge minutes, just not the toughest ones. I wrote about it in the article today at The Athletic.
They have to wait until Walman returns to do that.
While I agree that Nurse is not worth his contract, your post completely ignores his deployment.
Nurse is getting sent out without McDrai significantly more than Ek or Bouch and his numbers in that time are terrible.
Nurse has played nearly 300 minutes without Drai or McD.
Bouchard has only played 130 without Drai or McD.
I think the bottom six is having a huge impact on Nurse’s numbers. Who you play with matters, a lot. He has also had a rotating cast of partners all year.
Nurse is obviously not worth his contract but your analysis of his numbers this year is missing some important context.
Not to mention, the Oilers have never played Nurse with a competent top 4 NHL defensive partner. apart from with Broberg in the Stanley Cup finals.
Nurse has always been partnered with inexperienced young D, or veteran 3rd pairing quality D. Or 2nd pair left shot D who are playing their offside badly.
100%.
After watching Seth Jones on Florida I wonder how Nurse would perform on a team with dependable 2-way forwards and a decent partner.
True, that’s still more about someone helping Nurse, and it won’t fix his issues. He’s not terrible, also not good outside of games here and there. If everyone can stay healthy, a settled in Walman is the type of D he does better with
Walman looked pretty awful on the right side defensively in the first go at it with Nurse. but the entire Oilers team was looking bad defensively at the time.
The Walman can play the right side is something that I will actually have to see before I believe it.
Maybe the Oilers should just move Nurse to the right side with Walman on the left.
Walman has been hurt so much I won’t be surprised if he has some troubles for a while, if he can stay heatlhy
He was hurt before the playoffs for a while and hurt in the playoffs (don’t know if he wasn’t near 100% when he returned, re-aggravated or if it was something new) and played well in the playoffs, generally.
Nurse has all the tools in the box and I wish Holland would of given him the 7 year deal at considerably lower money 5-6 million 2 years earlier. I think the pressure of the max signing does get to him. I think he’ll play another 10 years at a high level he may even improve as he gets older.
This might be a good time for that Alex Lyon trade.
Well the Roster freeze is at midnight tonight, so unless Bowman had a pre deal set to go based on rumours reported by a few local blog heads, pretty unlikely today. But I guess you never know.
Gazola said last night on EST Oilers Post game show that he talked to some sources and they had heard nothing of trade talk or a trade coming down the pike regarding Lyon yesterday.
Gonna require some speedy negotiating… Xmas trade holiday starts at midnight.
Lyon is Buffalo’s most reliable goalie, rocking a .904 behind a bad defensive team.
Iron Lyon Zion has started and won their last 3 games. If I’m Jarmo I’m not trading him.
He played last night if something was in the works he probably would of not played.
Good point
Frederic looked the best he has yet with-the Oil. Beauty pass To Stillman who hit the post. Stillman was solid.
I think Stastny was a great pickup. He can skate and is very smart.
Hutson is a smart player. Kid is going to be a very good NHL player. In a very smal amount of ice time, that line was pretty good.
Sure the 3rd line doesn’t get scored on, but my god there is absolutely no offence at all there. Moving forward they need a way better offensive 3rd line.
Do wonder if Bowman picked up the phone last night and called Buffalo about Lyons again. Lots of rumours about yesterday in regards to him coming here.
It is too bad for Jarry as it looked like he possibly re injured the groin he hurt in Pitt earlier in the season. Lots of exploding heads last night and this morning calling for Bowman’s head in regards to that trade. Is what it is and hopefully it doesn’t become a nagging injury all year. Groin’s can be a big pain .
Great win and the top 6 is scary right now. The 4 th line scored ( with Drai) and hopefully the 3rd starts popping a few. It will be needed.
Do they need a more offensive 3rd line? If the number of goals for and against didnt change for the rest of the year, it would look bad overall and many would complain. But the job would be done. If you have 2 scoring lines and a bottom 6 that doesn’t lose their minutes (or even chips in if you’re Hutson) then thats a win.
Roslovic coming back and performing like he had solves all of this imo.
Walman rounds out the team really nicely with how Stastney-Emberson have played.
Light a candle for Jarry.
It seems like Connor Ungar has gotten lost in the shuffle, putting up crooked numbers in 4 different ECHL cities the past two years. Would love to see him get a shot in Bakersfield at some point.
I can’t find him playing anywhere right now. Where is he?
,.
His stats line have him playing for the Orlando Solar Bears. 5GP 1-0-3 .944/.168
Ungar is actually signed to an NHL deal and is on year 2 of 2 now according to Puckpedia. With his performance I think he should be the one up to Bako at least, if/when Ingram or Tomkins move on up to the big leagues.
Bah you’re right. Deleting my post. Thanks for correction.
Already done as per the Solar Bears site.
NESN gave Picks player of the game. My current thoughts on the goaltending:
Yesterday Hockey Psychology released a great breakdown titled “Is This Going to Happen Again?” on the Oilers’ turn around and how systems execution from forwards contributed directly to defensive breakdowns early in the season. Echoing some of us here, he’s effectively suggesting the goaltending issue has always been overblown in Edmonton. I would highly recommend watching. Spoiler, with a bit of my own interpretation: This team can continue to win with Pickard or Lyon or Ingram. Or Skinner.
I’ll editorialize a bit: If Skinner had to leave it was for a complicated web of reasons, not entirely or exclusively related to winning. Are there better goalies out there? Sure. Is Jarry one of them? Maybe? But this maligned duo of Pickard and Skinner are the only duo in recent memory to backstop a team to two back-to-back Stanley Cup finals. I don’t know how many times I heard the same refrain: “Edmonton can’t go into another playoff run with this same duo.” This is weird, ahistorical nonsense. They were good enough to get them to SCF Game 7, where the offence laid an egg. They followed that up with another trip to the finals where Edmonton was with Florida neck and neck until game 6 when Florida mysteriously was able to win every race to every puck. (But that’s another story.)
They proved themselves capable, yet wear the blame for Edmonton’s forwards’ lack of commitment to defensive structure early in seasons.
Basically if Edmonton plays to its potential, goaltending is a secondary concern. So I am not overly worried about a prolonged Jarry absence per se. Run Pickard-Ingram through the Olympic break if need be, Jarry will return with Edmonton #1 in the Pacific either way.
—- with the rest and more regular schedule particularly January which is their “easiest” schedule in terms of home games vs travel vas playing teams who are on schedules like Edmonton was they should be ok. Even more so if McDrai continues.
— any average goalie would normally win all those games that Jarry started IMO.
— has there been in recent memory a goalie situation as bad as what is current for Oilers for a “contender”? Starting goalie out on a nothing play and history of missed games, a backup well below average and nothing of note in the minors with a pedigree or recent play that says “he’s ready”?
Maybe trade for Skinner?
Hah! I wondered the same thing (but not seriously: the Skinner-haters stand united and are a formidable distraction from what really was ailing this club).
What did I hear, often, recently? Your best goalie is the one who is consistently available. I love Jarry’s stick-work, and hope & pray his injury isn’t significant. Otherwise, no amount of that talented but inconsistently available stick-work “solves” the goalie situation. Which has, finally, (now that F& D appear to be playing w some consistency) become a problem.
People suggesting Jarry “looked great” after those two first wins would never have offered Skinner such compliments but Skinner would have delivered identical results. Actually that point shot from Karlsson was completely saveable and would have generated more hate for poor Stewie.
I don’t know if there has been another contender in similar scenario but also I just want the Oilers to be allowed to be the unique team they are, and let rip. Damn the torpedoes.
I respectfully disagree. Jarry brings a different look to the backstop. His side to side movement is much faster !a more athletic goaltender), and he handles the puck much better. Skinner had a number of games where he let a soft one or two in at bad times in the game deflating the team. Jarry 1st two games let in a goal at the end of the game that was already over. In both those cases his sv% would have been in the 9’s
Late goals against the Oilers also cratered Skinner’s save percentage for most of the last three seasons.
Again I disagree. The majority of the time with Skinner the team was fighting from behind. Skinner had very few games where the game was in the bag and got scored on.
It could also be pointed out that Jarry let in the first shot of the game 6/22 times for Pitt.
That’s just not true or else that would be the narrative, it’s the bad/weak goals against at the worst times that cratered Skinner and his save %
Pickard played very well in the debacle in Montreal. He played well last night.
As some have suggested, the Oilers “goalie problem” was (& remains)D&F defensive inconsistency. If the D&F have gotten their sh*t together perhaps Pickard is plenty good enough to win games. He was in the playoffs (when the D&F played like it mattered).
Agreed the forwards were the main culprits of the early troubles. D and G always take the blame, but they are both vulnerable to forward coverage
I think that much of the discussion around the team carries attribution error. We saw the issue with Skinner against the Pens – the untimely weakish goal that sunk the Pens. Goalie stats are very skater dependant, as has been offered up for a reason why Jarry looks to have played well but has a low SV%
But timeliness is the main thing with goalies for me. I think despite the vocal support for Stu – they liked him of course – team confidence was lost or shaky. Higher event teams need goalies that can make more saves than they should, and when it counts most. No goalie is always that – looks into it years ago showed there aren’t any certain ‘clutch goalies’ – but there are some that seem to do it enough
The attribution error for me is about who did what in their two finals runs. I read that Holland built the team, the goalies got them there, a few other things. For me of the two things I mentioned it was not because, but despite. Holland left with the same holes he inherited, even if he improved the quality to a degree. Stu and Pick played well enough, but the team was rolling and their environment allowed them to play well enough to get enough wins, until the finals
Their stats were not good in each run, and while Pick won games key games in relief, to my eye there was as much luck in that as him playing well, he is all over the place in net, rebounds galore. What has driven their success has mostly been Connor, Drai and Bouch going supernova in the playoffs, and Ek when he was playing well, carrying the team on their backs to the finals, often without a lot of help
If Holland had finally balanced the team, the management had the cajones to force Nurse out (as other teams do), and they had managed to find better goalies, I think they would have got a Cup, maybe two. Despite the ‘supercharged’ opponent
They might have been able to do it with just some of the nagging issues fixed, better team play would have helped the goalies. But it was the quartet to me that drove the bus, elite players with enough experience hitting full prime
I think its the only reasonable counterpoint. But now, to rev.hans’ point above, Skinner’s sense of time includes dependability. And to Hockey Psychology’s point, this team, when playing to its potential, has no business getting outplayed after a bad goal here or there – something almost every goaltender allows from time to time.
And a similar “timeliness” argument is what I was also haranguing Bouchard about for the first two months of the last three seasons, but to little effect. “Wait for the playoffs” is the answer there. But for your back to back SCF duo? Bupkis.
Stu and Pick didn’t increase their level of play in playoffs, and even with the Oilers rolling most opponents were at the bottom in stats, so it wasn’t the skaters sewering them. Bouch rose to historic levels. Connor and Leon as well, healthy Ek was an absolute force
Almost every player plays a role in success for sure. I don’t mean to throw shade on the goalies who give everything they have, to me it’s just the facts as I see them
The only time I ever thought Skinner played like a 1A was in the Dallas series. He made the timely saves, statistically he was worse than OTT but won that series with his timely saves.
Bob had worse stats the next series but won the cup with his timely saves.
Alternately: F’s didn’t score “timely” goals.
My brain is boggled with this notion of “timely” goals against. Aren’t they all “timely” goals, for and against?
Again, fans & pundits create the very “voodoo” they claim as their defense for “not understanding” goalies or the position. Every save is timely. Ever goal for, timely. Decide to play “responsibly” or “run & gun,” and accept the consequences.
This is true, but what divides the best players from the hoi polloi is timeliness. They can’t do it all the time, but in the 4 Nations it was Sid (again) to Connor, right? Both had been there before. Or Grant Fuhr, couldn’t stop a beach ball at times, Wayne said he would want no on else in the biggest moments
This is an excellent post.
For me, Jarry is not substantially better and Stu was good but I prefer a Jarry type tender and like him better as opposed to a Stu type tender. A lot of it falls on the team D (as stated in this thread) esp the forwards coming back and playing the full rink. The risk was injury with the Jarry trade and here we are. I prefer his style in net though by far. Pickard makes some of those saves but he gets out of position more and is more scrambly.
The happy medium is a quiet tender who has that athletic quick movement and decent hockey IQ. The unicorn is a large tender with that type of movement and elite hockey IQ.
No tender will save everything and have good stats with terrible team D in front of them.