The Minnesota Wild are a damned interesting team, and it only took 15 years of time and space. Winter fallow is a nasty piece of business, and I do miss Marian Gaborik, but this edition of the Wild is, well, wild.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: Wild, Kraken, Jets (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- At home to: Sabres, Red Wings (Expected 1-0-1) 1-0-1
- On the road to: TML, Canadiens, Penguins (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- On the road to: Bruins, Wild (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-0
- At home to: VEG, Flames (Expected 1-0-1)
- On the road to: Flames, Jets (Expected 1-0-1)
- At home to: Bruins (Expected 1-0-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-3, 21 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 6-2-1, 13 points in nine games
- Season Record: 17-12-6, 40 points in 35 games
I have this afternoon’s game as a loss. Minnesota was a tough out when Lemaire’s teams took all of the oxygen away, and they’re a different style now but just as formidable. I always pay close attention to five-on-five play, since it’s the largest game state. The Wild score 2.14 goals-60 and 1.89 goals-60, for a 53 percent goal share. Expected share for Minnesota is 49 percent. The Oilers score 2.47 goals-60 and allow 2.78 goals-60, for a 47 percent share. Expected share for Edmonton is 50 percent. December Oilers are 59 percent and on a heater.
ALL THOSE TRANSACTIONS
The Oilers placed Tristan Jarry on IR, he’s gone for a time. This is the right play, make sure he’s right and ready for the playoffs. That’s what matters. I’m also encouraged by the recall of Connor Ingram, who is absolutely the most talented healthy goaltender in the system. I don’t know if he’ll play against Vegas (looks like Calvin Pickard has the net today in St. Paul), but Ingram’s resume, when healthy, is rock solid and he’s a reasonable bet.
The team placed Jack Roslovic on LTIR to make the cap work. I remain a little baffled by the organization’s stubborn approach to David Tomasek. The general manager is pretzeling the roster for Tomasek, a player the coach plays sparingly. Tomasek has dressed for 63 percent of Edmonton’s game and is averaging nine minutes a night at five-on-five. Tomasek is scoring 0.92 points-60 and has a 38 percent goal share.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl driving this thing, folks. Such special players. Give the coaching staff credit, they recognized 97 was playing too much, and we should shout out Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, too. However, the Glimmer Twins are over 70 percent goal share at five-on-five in December, with the rest at 36 percent and God help us that’s an improvement over the first two months.
I’m publishing this at 8:30-ish and then have to do something. I’ll come back and post the Condors numbers below in an hour or so. Be well, it’s damn cold this morning.
CONDORS
Ike Howard continues to zoom the top line even though Quinn Hutson is in the NHL. Howard is getting more power-play time and his playmaking ability is exceptional. His even-strength offense remains the most powerful number on this page and his outscoring is sublime. Josh Samanski continues to flourish, and now that Roby Jarventie has joined the top line his numbers are trending north. Sam Poulin is an interesting player, we’ll have a closer look at him when he’s around 10 games.
Beau Akey is on a nice run, and Damien Carfagna has been posting a little more offense lately. Both encouraging. Atro Leppanen is on the ice for all the goals now, I swear to God. This is an unusual defensive unit now, with Dineen and Stillman missed enormously. I’m not sure any of these men warrant a recall, but would have picked Josh Brown over Riley Stillman.
The goalering hasn’t been motoring, but the defense is not terribly experienced and I’d suggest these totals would be better if the defense held with Dineen, Stillman and Brown as the veterans. It was not to be, at least in the first half of the year.
The list of players who have swung the Bakersfield saloon doors and played an NHL game this season will grow to six when and if Ingram plays a game. So far this year, Ike Howard (17 NHL games), Connor Clattenburg (5), Quinn Hutson (2), Max Jones (2) and Riley Stillman (1) have seen action with the big club.
Ungar stops 34 of 36 for, yup you guessed it a 0.944 GAA.
The 2 goals he let in were:
The 1st on a breakaway by speedster Jagger Firkus, Firkus dekes right, Ungar goes with him, instead of shooting, Firkus pushes the puck to the left and a hustling teammate beats all the Condors to the puck and he slams it into a gaping net.
The 2nd scored on a 6 v 4, Ungar stops the puck, but it pops up into the air above the net behind him & just in front of the goalmouth. A defender knocks it down with a high stick in front of the now sprawled Ungar, a Coachella player takes a stab at it and it kind of trickles between his pads as he is desperately doing the splits while sprawled out.
Iceman with the hatty & Jarventie with 3 Apples. With Samanski at Center, they were the dominant line in this game.
Lots of weak efforts in the in this game, as I said earlier, good thing he is used to porous defenses.
FWIW, IMO, based on this viewing, Poulin is no threat to take an NHL roster spot. He played center in this game, and in the latter half (I missed the 1st period) of this game other than on faceoffs, he barely touched the puck. He has no battle in his game, was the first to leave the dzone and often the last to get back.
Much obliged thank you.
Notes:
1 – The 2nd goal was scored 6 v 5, my mistake.
2 – They’ve added a save, so he stopped 35 of 37 for a 0.946 save percentage.
Dammit Connor!
😀 😀 😀 😀
Ungar with the win likes to be consistent now 944 same percentage with his 4th team
Uncanny!
Ungar has stopped all 21 shots through 2 periods.
How does he look compared with Ingram and Tompkins?
Couldn’t really tell you as the game was on while I was travelling to, and at, the Cusco airport and I was only able to check in for small stints here and there.
Howard with his second of the night – cycling with Jarventie and Samanski.
This was a wonderful cycle and then a very skill walk off the half wall to the middle my Howard and rung it off the bar and in.
Carfagna with a nice keep and dish down low to Jarventie who takes it off the wall to Howard at the dot and he snaps home the 1-0.
It would appear the post-Hughes Canucks are going to screw up their tank job.
4 straight wins on the road beating the Devils, Islanders, Rangers and Bruins.
Now, hilariously, only 4 points out of a playoff spot.
Go figure.
Liam Ohgren, largely considered a throw-in to the deal, went 2-1-3 on the road trip along with the shootout winner.
Too bad they’ll end up drafting 8th OV in June.
Hard to say.
They will be offloading a few vets before the trade deadline.
Leading scorer, Kiefer Sherwood, Evander Kane, Conor Garland and perhaps Tyler Myers have been rumoured to available.
It’s also possible, though a long shot, they will auction Thatcher Demko to the highest bidder.
They potentially could end up with 3 or 4 first round picks.
Ohgren looks really good thus far, as does Zeev Buium with a 2 points in 4 games while Marco Rossi has been quiet.
Ryan Whitney shoutout to Lt on his Spittin’ Chiclets podcast.
https://x.com/spittinchiclets/status/2002083302757576992?s=46
The Minnesota to Edmonton back to backs.
I know Vegas plays today but in Calgary.
Going to be a tough one tomorrow.
Imagine if Ingram steals it?
If he plays I hope he does well. All for him
Can’t imagine he doesn’t.
With the crazy turnaround, no way they call up Ingram of Tomkins if the plan isn’t to play him. I’m sure Bowman spoke with Gretz and Chaulk and maybe even Ingram prior to the call-up.
Carter Hart with the start for Vegas.
Yes, Hart with the worse AHL save percentage this year to Ingram at sub .840
Of course, Hart has started 5 games in the NHL with a 3-0-2 record, .917 and a 2.66 GAA.
Small sample size but he actually is leading all Vegas goaltenders in this metrics.
I know.
My point being that AHL stats for established NHL vets often mean little.
Pay attention.
In the 2nd intermission, Bob Stauffer was trying to pump up Bouchard’s case for making Team Canada based on his offensive production but I think he’s fighting a lost cause.
The rink in Italy is going to be smaller than expected so the short neutral zone will lead to ferocious forecheck pressure especially if we match up with the Americans. The Team Canada traditionalist thinking will be to get D who can overcome the forecheck with strength, size, experience and speed and any added offence from the backend will be a bonus. The majority of the offence needed will come the forwards led by McDavid, Marner and MacKinnon.
The knockout games will be one goal affairs and the early season hiccups and giveaways that Bouchard displayed will disqualify him even if he’s been playing much better in the past month. At best, I think Bouchard will be the 9th defenceman with Drew Doughty slotting in ahead of him as the 8th option. Ahead of them are the returning 4 Nations crew of Makar, Toews, Theodore, Morrisey, Harley, Sanheim, and Parakylo.
Bouchard is just too high risk/reward and I believe Team Canada leadership will be conservative.
Bouchard is more than a point producer, he’s a massive driver of outscoring at 5 on 5 – even with some mistakes, which, really, are not more than pretty much most other d-men past October, he still massively drives outscoring.
Outscoring is what wins games.
I don’t think he’s be there but taking Parayko, Sanheim, Doughty and this year’s Harley over him is going to be a poor decision.
You had mentioned recently that Harley was -10.
And he was but playing injured.
Now healthy, he had 1G and 1A last night and was +5.
It would seem last year’s Harley might be back.
GF% for Canadian D:
RD – Makar – 72.2%
LD – Toews – 63.2%
RD – Theodore 60.5%
LD – Morrissey – 60.3%
RD – Doughty – 59.4%
RD – Bouchard – 53.4%
LD/RD Sanheim – 52.8%
LD – Harley – 43.1%
RD – Parayko – 40.7%
If based entirely on outscoring, RD would consist of Makar, Theodore, Doughty with Bouchard perhaps at #4RD.
Parayko would seem the most vulnerable but his size and snarl may hold some value for the decision makers.
Bouchard is top of league since November.
Unfortunately for him, player evaluations for the Olympics are not based on small sample sizes.
Apparently, the Canadian brain trust attended a few of Bouchard’s early season performances and were not impressed with his numerous gaffes.
Check out his 3 year sample size in the playoffs.
They will look at the two Florida series.
Then they should cut McDavid.
Bouch sawed off against Florida last season, McDavid got scored against and scored against and scored against, and was directly and primarily culpable on 4-5.
Yes, 3 years is a small sample size
Chychrun has played his way into the conversation.
Barely played in the playoffs, production has dropped each time he has.
I think this is the nuance that we’re disagreeing on: I believe the Team Canada brass will have a philosophy of team building that values defensive suppression ability higher than outscoring ability in a defenceman.
In a long season, outscoring *IS* the way to choose your D-corps. In single elimination games, single mistakes will decide one goal games and Canada’s management will be risk averse.
Based on this philosophy, offensively skilled outscorers like Chychrun and Bouchard fall down the rankings in favor of cycle breakers and crease clearers who help win the 1-0 or 3-2 games.
If the goal is to create an offensive juggernaut of a team that could win most games 6-5 like the Canada Cup ’87 team then Bouchard would be a lock but I highly doubt that’s how Canada will want to play.
I agree with this.
Bouch isn’t there for me. Love him as a player and beast in the playoffs but he needs to clean that crap up even a little.
We spend so much time looking at percents but sometimes value in looking at real numbers. McDavid has been supernova offensively but he needs to calm down in the d zone. He’s now tied with Andrew Mangiapane for most 5v5 goals against on-for with 30.
Full marks for it too. He and Leon sit 3/4 in scoring chances against. Leon’s been quite fortunate to have not been lit up as much as Connor.
Obvioulsy they play a ton of minutes (in general) and specifically against the leagues best but they’ve got to find a way to win those minutes more decisively.
Nate at 49/12 is “you’re in the wrong league” sort of stuff. Riding PDO but cmon.
Very unusual to be tied for the lead in scoring while having a -1.
MacKinnon sporting a +43 indicates taking defense seriously.
Or maybe it’s MacKinnon playing a season less hockey than contenders the last three years?
Nathan Tavares isn’t even the most talented on his team.
Sitting for the 2nd season means you’re ready to challenge for titles you have no business in if Makar wasn’t floating your boat. Such a contrived debate after Matthews back gave out. Kucherov (the Malkin of our day) and Draisaitl are the only forwards in the same stratosphere:
The drop off in scoring for everyone else on Colorado is all too familiar.
Bednar gonna ride Natakar Secretariat until its red and raw. A spent force in April as per usual.
McDavid is toying with him 😉
Mackinnon’s on-ice save percentage is .938 to McDavid’s .867. Aside from +/- being a mediocre stat (short-handed/Empty-net count but not power play), that’s an incredibly wide divide and either you’re really bad at stats or you’re really lazy at trolling. Take your pick. Last season Mackinnon was +25 to McDavid’s +20. Did Mackinnon suddenly learn how to play defense while McDavid forgot? Or should you put some actual work into your trolling here?
Last season, MacKinnon was without Necas as a linemate for all but 30 games while this season, he is benefiting from playing with an elite winger.
The starkest difference between MacKinnon and McDavid is very revealing as Nate has 45 EVP to Connor’s 32.
MacKinnon has always been a solid two way player and McDavid can be when he wants to be but you seem to be putting all the blame on goaltending without acknowledging that McDavid’s play likely contributes to that ghastly save percentage.
Careful, or you may jinx MacKinnon. Seems to be your specialty.
I have no control over Nate.
Jinxes are, in fact, actually voodoo.
He is really lazy at trolling. He lives in his Mom’s basement eating cheatos
Yes it’s an unusual year. Norris champian Hughes is a -7.
Team Canada Harley is a -5.
Agreed when looking at GF% that is one thing I check – how many actual goals scored and against. 1-0 is GF100%
I posted the GF GA for players but it’s getting ‘waited’ for some reason. The best players lost this game at 5v5. The fluctuations in team play start and stop with their commitment to sound play, puck and game management, just like every other team. They aren’t three years into this thing anymore
Wild now 12-0-2 in their last 14 home games.
Only Colorado better.
The two teams meet tomorrow.
Wild are a monster.
They have a great fan base as well. They may be a different team this coming post season, not bow out like usual, yet to be determined.
Three monsters in the Central.
Too bad one of them has to lose in the first round.
Fibonacci, you have a posting pattern that reminds me of a poster from back in the day on the Hockey’s Future Oilers board who had the handle “Mizral”. Mizral pretty well never posted after an Oiler victory, but always found time to post after a loss. Is this pattern a sort of fan superstition? You know, like some people won’t watch their team play because they are sure it will have some sort of sympathetic magical consequence – like a jinx, or a nocebo effect. 🙂
Nope – he’s an Oilers hater and one that spends as much time as I do on an Oilers’ blog – wild stuff.
Correction. He’s an Edmonton hater and will trash anything and everything about the city
Lowetides multiple personality disorder. OP the ever optimist and Fibo-HH the ever self-disgusted pessimist.
Evergreen post from the last two years, years in which no central division team made it to the SCF.
We are always at war with Eurasia.
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
Minnesota sports teams always collapse in the playoffs. And Hughes will leave in a year, because that’s the pain Minnesota sports fans all have gotten used to
I have a hard time watching Connor Brown have the year he is having.
Miss his pain the ace style on this team, plus he is scoring again.
Give Tomasek a real chance to get going possibly just to see before being shot to the moon, which will happen soon.
Mangiapane needs to sit for a game or two. The margin was so thin we couldn’t give up an easy goal but that’s exactly what he allowed thru backchecking laziness on the go ahead and eventually game winning goal.
If they need someone, Tomasek is an easy substitute.
It was Henrique making yet another weak pass to no one 198ft from his own net that started the entire event.
Henri is done and taking a spot from a better player
God love him, he was a very good player and has the IQ still but the body is ready to rest.
He will sit, he scored today
Played well enough to win but too many giveaways and self inflicted wounds which ended up costing them the game.
But goaltending is the problem?
not sure why you keep commenting with this.
Goaltending has been a problem for years or we would have a Stanley cup. That is what happens when you push a backup into a roll too early and expect the world and have a journeyman backup. Great people but both not good enough.
Not their fault, that is on management.
I’m not seeing it. I’ve only been watching this team for two years but the consistent issue to my eyes (& the numbers) is lackadaisical defensive play, and often by the team leaders in the dz and nz. Again today. This loss, like so many this year (and Game 7 in ‘24 and Games 5 &6 in ‘25), were not lost by goaltending but by “irresponsible” play by D&F. One day, perhaps, Drai will get serious about the Selke thing. One day, maybe, McD will figure out that his fastest path to the Cup is responsible play in his own end and the neutral zone. It’s painful to watch the team get close, then lose the plot. Goaltending is not and has not been the problem 🤷♂️
I don’t disagree with most of that statement at all but yes goaltending has also been a problem for many years, not just this past 2 years, that goes to drafting/trades/bad luck/ management not taking it seriously enough.
Goaltending is also a part of the team D aspect, they need to be better in specific situations as well as all you said about the non tenders.
Walman in over Stillman likely means one less goal for Minny. Jack in for any number of stone hand forwards might have meant another goal for the Oilers. Take away the EN and it’s 3-3. Yes I know if the dog hadn’t of stopped to take a shit he would have caught the rabbit…..
This was always going to be a tough game to win. Good to see them in the fight right to the end.
I’d take as a positive that Hutson got some quality line time, 88 scored, Pickard played well.
This game is a good way to see where the team is at in the present moment, injuries and all. Playing hot coming into a very good team’s building. Definitely not at the Wild’s level at this time, kinda knew going into the year though. When healthy (if ever) and when they have the right kids up I think the team will be much harder to play against.
I am not sure the defensive want and miscues will ever go away though and that will always be the achilles heel.
If you watched the Wild feed, Middleton had an interview and said as much about them not playing D under pressure at times. So teams know and that’s how they beat them.
Wait – not goaltending??
oh yes, goaltending is part of the equation in team D.
more so now to compete against a team like the Wild, the depth isn’t close to good enough (obvious statement)… with the injury boys back it may close some gap there.
Kudos to Minny for summoning 2000 with legs and sticks everywhere it’s like they always have 8 guys out there. Edmonton probably deserves an extra power play in the third.
But that’s a winnable game, and is lost in a manner very Oilers: two turn overs at blue lines and one very bad read in a bad change late in a period.
As usual, little to do with goaltending.
Drai has been snake bitten for awhile now.
Bouchard has hit enough shin pads this afternoon
Isn’t that a textbook penalty?
Sure is.
Louie spins for the league and their BS officials.
Bouchard should have knocked that puck back into neutral zone. Nothing good going to come from a glove down spinorama attempt at your defensive blueline.
Game of inches..,Picks giving it his all but joy. Shoulda called the slash on bouches hands…
No slash. He just missed it.,.dang…
2+14 lose the battle…..
Ekholm and Bouchard tire fire special.
But yet our best D by far..
Well shoot
Hutson with more defensive urgency than most of the other wingers.
There’s absolutely a player there.
Picks has made some very big saves today.
Pickard cracks .900 on the night.
That was definitely your fault.
And probably Jack Michael’s. Is there some petition that can be signed to remove him from announcing? Getting tired of a guy flapping non stop about every other teams players.
Yeah! Let’s get a petition going to get the guy fired because you don’t like him talking about opposition players. Let it be a warning to other announcers who dare to stray
how about because he sucks at announcing hockey games?
lol I kid, I would never sign a petition for a firing
I like Jack on TV. I don’t need to be told what I’m seeing on the screen. I can listen to his commentaries while understanding the visuals.
I dislike Jack on radio for much the same reasons, but in reverse.
That’s his job.
He calls, what, 65 of so Oilers games on TV in the regular season?
He talks about the Oilers players in each and every one of them.
The viewing audience knows much less about the opposition players.
I understand the many nitpicks about Jack’s announcing but this one seems part of the job.
Is this game reminding anyone of the recent game vs Montreal?
The Wild are doing a good job of closing lanes, collapsing to the net, and preventing the Oilers from getting shots off from dangerous locations.
Can’t help thinking if Coffey was still behind the bench how he might be able to unleash the full potential of Stastny.
If Coffey was behind the bench the entire team would be better.
Good overall effort on the road so far with all the adversity and Regula/Walman out. The way this game has gone, Oilers will need a PP chance or the first line to pot one even strength for this game to shift. Unless KK shortens the bench and more consistently elevates Hutson, Savoie, or Mangiapane over Frederic
The injury situation is becoming a thing.
The 3-2 goal against is the dictionary definition of an AHL play in NHL game.
By the time Stillman was aware the play was happening, it already had.
If they lose on that play in an otherwise good road game, this should be the last NHL game Stillman plays for a while. Unacceptable
Yep but with Walman and Regula out you have to throw someone in there??? Maybe should have hung on to Stetcher????
Was a cap casualty situation on account of injuries. I would have sent down Frederic before a guy like Stecher who they knew wasn’t going to clear given lack of D depth
Ha ha , yea no one claiming Freddy with the CONTRACT!
Also, what poor choice it was to throw Stillman over the boards with 1 min left in the first after you tie it up and have the momentum? Really poor choice
Bottom 4 D of Nurse, Stasny, Emberson and Stillman going to struggle against good teams like the Wild. Obviously injuries a problem. Walman seems to struggle to stay healthy which is a problem.
He’s played 60-65 games every season since breaking into the league. Not ideal but also not sure that’s an awful thing to have some D with less mileage going into the playoffs
World Junior tickets are going for as low as $32 in Minnesota. Giveaway prices.
I’ll jump on our d zone coverage all the live long day but can’t question the effort, today. If we can keep pressuring these guys we’ll get our chances and probably force calls. Don’t let up, fellas. We’re flying right now!
Nice to see a 92-29-23 shift
Back out together again
.
As it should be with the current options.
Yep, although 10 was back with them to end the period. Still, good to see they recognize the potential there & elevate 23 for good minutes.
I thought so too – but that was with Janmark, so it was actually Leon out there to finish a period.
Hutson on the Drai line. More please.
Hutson clearly has some great offensive talent. Him, Savoie and Howard clearly the future.
Samanski is part of that future.
Mangiapane with 1 shift in the second? Hurt or did he do a no no?
He’s been the only non-first line winger doing something positive
Coach showing a lot of trust in Hutson’s ability to warm the bench.
Only one line winning 5 on 5 and KK’s insistence of putting the Frederic chain on line 2 is ruining it. Even Henrique with Savoie and Podz had a good shift together.
You don’t try to fix the bottom 6 by damaging the 2nd line
I could understand making changes to the first line as, truth be told, even during McDavid’s heater, the 5 on 5 scoring wasn’t off the charts (although the goal share was) – tons of PP points for McDavid.
Breaking up the second line seems egregious.
Ingram’s beard game is strong.
13-46-23 are playing well together. We may actually have a good 4th line.
Sure hope Jones can keep up this level of play. We need a guy like that in the lineup. Hes doing Freddie’s job…
He’s sure showing some crust.
Wasn’t able to watch a second of this game but he FINALLY had a solid game last game and sounds like similar today.
Of course, this has been Jones’ issue for his near decade long career – in ability to sustain any sort of consistency.
Would be amazing if he starts to put it together now but it seems highly unlikely.
Pickard with a series of great saves that wouldn’t have been necessary if they didn’t turn what should have been a HDSC kind of entry into a 3 on 1. Bouch with the great pick off beforehand
Couple of saves Pickard shouldn’t of made.
It looked like Nick Bockwinkle stepped over the boards to wrestle Connor down… No call.
Need Draisaitl to turn into Baron Von Rashke.
McDavid mugged at center ice, no call.
Wow some chaotic hockey right now!