That was a pleasing victory for the Edmonton Oilers. I think the entire team can take some joy from the win over Vegas Golden Knights. There was some worry of course, this team is an easy mark with a big lead. However, the lineup made sense, the deployment was rational and general manager Stan Bowman has to feel good about recent pickups like Spencer Stastney and Connor Ingram.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: Wild, Kraken, Jets (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- At home to: Sabres, Red Wings (Expected 1-0-1) 1-0-1
- On the road to: TML, Canadiens, Penguins (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- On the road to: Bruins, Wild (Expected 1-1-0) 1-1-0
- At home to: VEG, Flames (Expected 1-0-1) 1-0-0
- On the road to: Flames, Jets (Expected 1-0-1)
- At home to: Bruins (Expected 1-0-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-3, 21 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 7-3-1, 15 points in 11 games
- Season Record: 18-13-6, 42 points in 37 games
The train keeps on rolling in December, with captain Connor McDavid leading the way. My goodness he’s having fun out there, when the McDavid speedway reaches the outer limits all we can do is watch in awe. Super nova display in the first period by McDavid. You can’t find the words. He is inevitable.
- Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Roslovic 10:28, 4-2 shots, 57X, 1-2 HDSC
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman 8:01, 4-5 shots, 1-0 goals, 41X, 3-1 HDSC
- Mangiapane-Henrique-Savoie 7:01, 1-2 shots, 67X, 1-0 HDSC
- Jones-Lazar-Janmark 6:15, 1-1 shots, 95X, 2-0 HDSC
There are some pleasing numbers in here. McDavid’s line was going to score if you and I were the wingers, the man could not be stopped. I liked the Henrique line, even through they aren’t scoring. Adding Savoie gives the trio some jump. The Lazar line had real chances and played a rugged, repeatable game. The Frederic scratch was overdue. He has to be able to skate well enough to arrive at the play, otherwise he’s not going to have an impact. No rage, no anger, I believe he will be a productive player. He isn’t one currently, and there’s zero reason to play him. Jack Roslovic’s return had some interesting moments, hopefully he can find another hot streak.
I want to keep looking at the December lines, with special attention to the bottom six. Here are the five-on-five scoring rates for the season, with December’s games in brackets:
- 97 and 29 12-12 goals 50 pct (3-4, 43 pct in December)
- Connor McDavid 21-20 goals 51 pct (9-4, 69 pct in December)
- Leon Draisaitl 25-13 66 pct (9-4, 69 pct in December)
- Adam Henrique 8-19 30 pct (1-5, 17 pct in December)
- The rest 9-21 30 pct (3-2, 60 pct in December)
McDavid solo and Draisaitl solo are 18-8 in December, both are at hockey’s outer marker for fabulousness. There is no step beyond. Adam Henrique’s combo can’t score, so it looks like a tragedy but his line is giving up 2.44 goals-60 at five-on-five during December. That’s a number you could live with if his trio was scoring. McDavid’s line is allowing 2.75 GA-60 this month, but scoring 4.06 GF-60. By the way, the improvement on the fourth line is Curtis Lazar’s trio, they are 2-1 in December. Knoblauch has to move Nuge back to 3C, unless they can clone the man. The third line is stumbling through the barrio this season. Real, real bad.
- Ekholm-Bouchard 13:49, 2-7 shots, 1-0 goals, 49X, 2-1 HDSC
- Nurse-Regula 13:55, 8-5 shots, 1-1 goals, 52X, 6-4 HDSC
- Stastney-Emberson 9:52, 1-6 shots, 49X, 2-2 HDSC
- Connor Ingram 26 of 29, .897 and 8 of 10 on HDSC
I thought the defense played well against a tough opponent. Evan Bouchard’s passing leads to exceptional opportunities, and he has earned (but will not receive) a spot on the Olympic team representing Canada. Nurse-Regula started 0-5 goals (five-on-five) but are 6-6 in December with Regula showing some impressive moves and passing. Stastney is going to have a mountain of fans in short order if he keeps playing such sound hockey. Mobility to the moon on this guy. A quick note on Connor Ingram. I thought he played well, and was happy he got the win. Edmonton bent but did not break, and I’ll give Ingram plenty of credit for doing his share.
On the Lowdown today, Rachel Kryshak will pop in at 12:40 to talk about Ingram, the Frederic scratch and McDavid’s December. Jason Gregor will join us at 1:20 to talk about the Oilers past, present and future and we’ll have plenty of World Juniors, NFL and MLB chatter. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
New for The Athletic: Why Oilers’ Evan Bouchard should (but won’t) make Canada’s Olympic team
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6908878/2025/12/22/evan-bouchard-stats-oilers-canada-olympics/
Thanks LT. That summed up my feelings exactly.
One thing I was also thinking about is that part of Bouchard’s DFF and outscoring results in the NHL are against the entire range of competition from Gritensity to Mids to Elites. How much is his production padded by scoring on the Gritensity crowd?
In the Olympics, the competition in the round robin will be similar or maybe even easier than NHL comps. In the knockout rounds, the competition would be like facing nothing but Mids and Elites only and the finals will probably nothing but Elite forwards and D-men. I know Bouchard’s results are good against all ranges of competition but if he has no soft parade (Gritensity) to feast on, would his outscoring be good enough to generate more than any mistakes he could make?
But in the Stanley Cup playoffs for 2 seasons, all the way to game 7- twice, Bouchard has excelled. No easy teams. No free ride. So when it’s all on the line he outperforms. That’s why he should be on the team.
I think the Team Canada braintrust will look at Bouchard’s wonky performance in the two Cup finals against Florida. Bouchard’s performance distribution is leptocurtic, so they will look at the ratio of the mean to the fatness of the left tail. In an NHL season, or two months of playoffs, the fatness of the left tail does not matter much. But it matters in a short series like the Olympics or the Stanley Cup finals.
The top international teams will be deep like Florida.
The probability of Canadian victory increases more by cutting off left tail risk than anything else.
I think Bouchard may make it as the #8 who would only see ice against weaker countries or if Makar gets hurt. Either him or Shaeffer. Parayko having a mediocre season and the fact that Bouchard is a right shot may have opened up a spot.
“leptocurtic”….love it…
Or more simply he’s made a few really poor defensive reads in the last few games that have nothing to do with 6 games in 9 days
It not like it’s only the Oilers who are playing condensed games. Right or wrong they have to choose the best across many teams. And in their shoes, I wouldn’t select him either for an active at first role. No room in a tournament for controller unplugged. And trusting he will again pick it up is a lot of risk to take on
Sometimes you have to take off the rose coloured glasses. I love Bouchard but you already have Makar for PP1 you could use Bouchard on PP2 but is PP2 limited minutes worth it. I myself wouldn’t probably pick him maybe no-8 tournament is to short you want some real gamers with some snarl unfortunately Bouchard cerebral play doesn’t always pass the eye test
Are there any pundits that aren’t Oiler fans calling for Bouchard to be on the team?
Pretty telling imo
Yes, I’ve seen some for sure.
Its also been reported by the top insiders (Friedman) that Bouchard is legit back on the radar and the last spot may be between him and Matthew S.
In January I would settle in on this line up.
53-97-18
92-29-28
19-93-22
46-13-42
10/88
14-2
25-96
24- 49
75
35
39
Time spares no man, except maybe the PP specialist
A blast from the past from none other than Eric T.
https://web.archive.org/web/20220627202717/https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/21/4452220/power-play-points-aging-curve-knuble
What the heck is your point? Seriously –
I don’t know if you know this, but McDavid is 28 and Draisaitl just turned 30
Hyman and RNH P/60 are well up this year.
McDavid will be back in range soon, and Draisaitl pretty close. And they are doing most of their ES damage mostly apart.
Would you post this bullshit on an Avs fan site? MacKinnon is a month older than Draisaitl, he must be on the way down…
Players do not age out at the same rate.
Not sure why you’re focusing on MacKinnon since most of his production is coming at evens while McDavid and Draisaitl is on the PP.
The point of Tulsky’s analysis (if you even read it) is that powerplay production is more durable than even strength scoring which is good news for the Oilers and even more so since RNH also thrives on the PP.
Seriously.
I don’t think you know what the word “most” means.
I read it. Did you?
I asked you why you posted it on this site.
We all know why. It’s because you’re a weasel and you know damn well you did it because you were implying that it applies to current Oilers nearing or moving past their 30s.
You weren’t doing it out of the goodness of your heart to genuinely educate us Oilers fans. It’s because you’re a dink and that’s what you do
Except, as always, you cherry pick BS that exposes you for the flip-flopping idiot that you are. Seriously.
The implication of the post was clear, that McDavid is on the way down and is holding is own because of PP prowess. You just admitted it, which is why I provoked you to do so (too simple, you always eventually say the quiet part out loud).
Except…
One, McDavid’s 5v5 P/G is nearly up to where it was last season, and for half of this season he wasn’t playing with capable 1st liners (aside from the usual late game and post-PK Draisaitl shifts, which are admittedly an outlier and hard to explain). It will get there, it’s been incredible in December and sleeping on McDrai in October-November is a fool’s game that you seem to partake in annually.
Two, the analysis does not separate elite players – you seem to have clearly misunderstood the fact that I brought up MacKinnon as a clear counter example to the premise of the article for a reason. The fact that this was lost on you is another example why moving the goalposts as you see fit rarely works and others always bring receipts of your hypocrisy.
Three, if it really was true about McDavid’s decline, you really picked a dumb time to posit this, after he was just named player of the week for the second time in a row
Four, he’s still over a year from 30 so you couldn’t even apply this article for an I told you so. And as I pointed out and you ignored, Hyman and RNH have had resurgence 5on5 as they both age within the 30-35 yr old era.
Five, with increased playoff PPs, the argument of winning the game 5on5, while still important, is lesser so in today’s NHL.
I think it’s time you take another break, you’ve already overstayed your time since your ill-fated fourth? return to this site under a new moniker.
Also, you didn’t make a peep when MacKinnon, Rantanen and Kucherov were empty net merchants in an era where the EN goal is as likely to make it a 3 goal game. But sure, tell me why a PP goal matters less when it’s off an Oiler stick… Although I’m pretty sure the TML would disagree with you…
I am not sure if you read the article but the thesis is quite banal: players 5v4 scoring declines slower than their 5v5 scoring.
I sure did. See above. Nothing is banal with this guy. Not sure if you read any of his posts over the last umpteen years, but a reasonable thesis on this guy is that he never posts articles on here to brighten our day.
Who starts next game? I would hand it off to Ingram as he looked calm as well as seeing through traffic. I think this is a good formula against a tough out at the moment Flames team.
I would start Ingram.
I think Knob will start Pickard.
I know that was a emotional win for Ingram as well as the team. Ingram probably had the adrenaline going but this isn’t his first rodeo. We both are in the agreement to start Ingram tomorrow with both of us thinking K.K will go with Pickard. With that being said this only means 1 thing Ingram gets the home game Pickard gets the road one. I’m starting to believe Coach K.K would make a good reverse engineer.
Its interesting given 36 hours ago you were talking about Pickard running with the starting job and the Oilers re-signing him…..
I think Marc-Andre Fleury should start.
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/article/lebrun-teams-have-checked-with-fleury-to-gauge-interest-in-returning/
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
The AHL and the PHPA — which represents minor-league players — closing in on new CBA. Must be ratified by both parties (expected to be a formality). Five-year deal, retroactive to the start of this season.
ECHL players are meeting virtually to discuss possibility of a strike, as, unfortunately, there’s little progress in negotiations between them and the league.
Schedule is on Christmas break until Boxing Day. Hopefully, things get sorted out, but talks haven’t been pretty.
I would say their benefit package is not a good one. I would be interested to hear about some of it. These are 20 something year old that are getting concussions as well as lifetime injuries. NHL players are well taken care of AHL I have little knowledge ECHL I have none. I could be wrong but I don’t think the disability package in the ECHL amounts to a living with dignity wage
How sure are we that the issue with Frederick is injury and not guy gets paid and mails in the offseason
Given he can’t/won’t shoot, fight, hit, defend, pass, or even screen the damn goalie…I don’t subscribe to the injury narrative at this point at all.
Combination of GM fixation, Bruins-effect and him knowing there will be no accountability because of that contract.
Let’s take a breath here. What do we know…
Well we saw his very first shift as an oiler where he nearly put a King over the boards and then came away grimacing in pain, clearly reaggravating his injury.
We know he’s not had one shift as impactful as that first one in the 9 months since.
We know the Oilers chose to send money and term his way anyway.
We know based on verbal that he seems really down on himself and his performance. There’s been noth8ng about him being selfish or petulant.
What you’re saying here is that he’s completed the biggest con job in history. He played like a maniac on his very first shift but then dogged it all playoffs even though he was a UFA and his career depended on it. Then, you’re saying the Oilers saw this healthy Frederic dog it all playoffs and still threw the bag at him. And healthy Frederic has now chosen to dog it all season but the coach and the players let him do it before scratching him 35 games in.
It’s non sensical to say he’s not trying.
You make it seem like Frederick would be the first person to ever sign a big contract and not work quite as hard in the offseason. When in reality it happens.
If his performance was injury related you’d think the brain trust would leak that out to the public to take some heat off of him
I was confused by narrative when signed that there was clearly several teams interested…like maybe i could see that being the case on max 3 year type deal. It wasn’t like come playoffs he was a relevation or anything even where that small sample size punch drunk effect factors. Like in my mind he should have been squarely a “show me” level contract after last season.
There are very few players outside seems like a corner stone establishment guy who i know has that thoroughbred mentality of ultra competitive, constantly trying to improve and learn, driven by desire to always win and never quits.
And i’m not dumping on frederic to degree i’d say he’s mailing it in at all. Just like watch him he just isn’t getting anywhere fast enough to factor in any level of aggression he might have to degree i think just not 100% and without the extra gear i don’t think he is the highest hockey IQ type of player who can adapt style to be somewhat effective without hustle hard at higher speed.
I’ve noticed it a lot on the forecheck. When he is the high man in. Starts skating towards puck handler just drag in acceleration. Puck is passed well clear by time he gets headed with much steam close to where it was -> changes course starts skating at new puck possesor but he’s often behind them already so he starts angling back to defensive end.
Like he doesn’t have much of any torque in first few criticsl steps.
I think it has a lot to do with not 100% recovered or figured out what might be adjusted to reclaim at least most of his former speed and accleration.
The problem if that is the case though:
I would never sign anyone but high hockey IQ guys to long term contracts that take them past like 31-32 year old season. Especially the power forward variety type.
In the playoffs Fredrick was one of the few bottom 6 players I was impressed with in the d zone. He was able to get pucks to good areas and not just slam it away and hope it cleared.
He was limited by mobility and still is. Not sure where the IQ and compete went.
In the scouting world, IQ and compete are above everything else.
Skating, puck handling, shooting ect can be taught. Size matters but only after compete, IQ. Derek Ryan and Corey Perry are good examples of having both while being limited elsewhere.
Fredrick may have to adjust his game if he can’t get back up to speed. Not sure how.
I aporeciate how much more succinctly you nail concept.
Brain and desire should be a huge as logical durability for contracts extending beyond 30 years of age. Can they Adapt or will they likely die sooner than later once the testosterone levels start declining.
I’m at the point with him where it doesn’t matter what the “issue” is. Even if he gets better, he will still suck and his contract one of the worst in the league. At least KK has come to his senses and is finally sitting him.
He was already regressing before the trade and injury. He was a 40 point guy once. I don’t get the cap going up so it’s a contract you can buy out, so it’s not so bad argument because that is a really bad way to manage cap, and cap management is an issue for this team. If you’re telling me he needed or deserved that 8 year contract to sign with Edmonton, then they should have passed on that contract, and not made that trade to begin with.
For me that’s not enough. If he is not ready by end of Xmas break, send him to the AHL. This is a professional sports team in the highest league, it’s not a skating skills camp and it’s not a charity. What an awful message to send to the 3-5 forwards clamoring to stick with the team, who have way more value and we should be worrying more about retaining.
Make it uncomfortable for him to enjoy his 4 mil/season. Report to Bakersfield, then next stop Fort Wayne if he can’t hack it. Put in the skating work and earn your way back like every tweener.
Trent as a human, even if he is a likeable one. should not factor into his deployment
Armed with a NMC, Frederic cannot be sent down, waived or traded without his consent.
That’s unfortunate… Not even to the AHL for the entirety of the 8-year deal? Wow that’s a gift that keeps on giving…
How many times has a player been healthy scratched in the first year of an eight year contract? How often does the player bounce back?
What a brutal trade and signing. Frederic is what he has always been: a mediocre bottom six player. The two seasons that he had good counting numbers was the result of shooting 4% higher than his career average. Otherwise, he was a product of playing on a team with elite coaching, D and systems play.
I am glad Knobber is finally scratching him.
Hear, hear
Going to be an expensive buyout this summer. Bowman’s first strike.
And yes 8 completely agree … Frederic has sucked. He lost one step and he’s an AHL quality player now.
KKs didn’t seem to endorse the idea that he has lingering injury. Which means that the problem is heart and hustle are now in short supply with this player.
Put him in the pressbox until he gets his act together; if he doesn’t, then send him home and buyout in the summer.
For all of you railing on about Frederic (and Mangi) at least do your homework. Bowman should get the Oiler internal for players game vest and also the hammer for Frederic’s contract. We haven’t seen one like that in a long time
Fred got trade protection but almost no buyout protection. It’s peanuts
Not too mention the whole team was in disarray to start and I posted stats yesterday which show the only player currently getting whacked in goal share is Henri
Can’t buy him out. Need to do with him what LA did with PL Dubois and ship him off for another issue player.
KK essentially expressed its “good enough to play on but not 100%”.
Frederic has sucked and has lost a step this season.
Of course, he’s 27, coming off playing on a bad high ankle sprain for 2 months and there are many accounts from players stating it took them a year before feeling 100% (and those didn’t play on it for 2 playoff months).
He started the season miscast and was poor. He continued to be poor, highly likely partially due to his lingering ankle issues. Confidence smashed. Continued poor play. Moved all over the lineup, etc., etc.
I would suggest there is zero chance at a buyout this off-season and its very likely he’ll recover to closer to established levels of play in due course – it may be later this season but maybe next.
I don’t understand what took so long. It was an obvious decision within the first month of the season.
Anyone on any of the broadcasts or highlight shows going to acknowledge the roll that Leon is on? Despite not being able to score?
The play is flowing through him. Absolutely locked in right now in terms of reads and passing.
And maybe they finally figured out that when the two big dogs are on the ice, 97 should play like a winger, and 29 as the C. Maybe. Everything works so much better on those sequences.
McDavid/Drai have 48 points in the last 10 games………
In order to address the “RNH to 3rd line C,” may I present some info:
GF-GA
Hyman-McDavid-Nuge 8-4
McDavid without either 16-20
McDavid w/Nuge 4-4
McDavid w/Hyman 5-4
The 3 together are greater than the sum of their parts
Also GF-GA
Nuge with “3rd line players”
w Mang/Savoie 17:24 0-0 xGF 68.55%
w Savoie/Henrique 1:34 0-1 xGF%
w Mang/Henrique 2:18 0-1 xGF% 0
w Savoie/Frederic 1:34 0-0 xGF% 0
w Fred/Mang 1:01 0-0 xGF%0
w Fred/Henrique 4:19 0-0 xGF% 47.65
Lots of small samples. But if the goal is to outscore with RNH on the 3rd line, maybe there’s a chance with Mang/Savoie. But you’ve left a gaping hole on 1st line that would likely need to be filled, and you’ve used up Savoie with RNH to help fill the need.
Presume you keep Roslovic-Draisaitl-Podz together, and Mang-RNH-Savoie on the 3rd, who is filling a top line winger role?
Hyman, McDavid and Henrique have only played 9 mins together since 23-24. GF-GA 0-0. Too small a sample. That is not the 1st line I would want to go to war with, personally, so then you’re asking an AHL call up to solve the 3rd line with RNH and Mang, while having Hyman-McDavid-Savoie on 1st line
(TOI 31 min, xGF% 46, GF-GA 1-1)
You can mix and match how you like, but RNH needs some wingers to play with, and Henrique with RNH have been outscored 0-2 in just under 4 mins together with another underperforming winger. So any solution for the 3rd line can’t be achieved by simply placing RNH into the 3rd line C.
What is being proposed, then, is to turn the present and historically dominant Nuge/McDavid/Hyman line that plays big minutes (more than just GF-GA, they also drive momentum and possession) into a below average 1st line, in order to maybe make a 3rd line that will play lesser mins and maybe saw off the opposition?
The better solution is to find a 3C, either internally (Samanski?), or through trade.
Totally agree. I’d throw out Wennberg, Dvorak, and Pius Suter as interesting less talked about options. First two UFA with possible retention and Suter 1 year remaining.
Very happy for Ingram. Cheering like hell for him. Great story.
Unrelated, but I hope Stan is asking Henrique to waive his NMC every day.
I don’t believe any of Frederic’s issues are related to effort. Effort you’d see results wax and wane But I can’t really think of a single good game from him. Add to that LT’s excellent research into his speed. there really only are a few options.
Occum’s Razor.
2 seems like complete malpractice. I have to assume docs gave a clean bill of health or at least LONG TERM recovery.
1 I just don’t see any signs of improvement. He can’t “jump” or accelerate. He can’t turn. And most glaring he looks off balance in his board battles.
I think best case scenario is #3
Best if we can LTIR him for the back half of the season, enabling Frederick to build his strength and speed, and allowing the Oilers to add a $4M salary at the deadline.
Frederick can spend a training stint in the AHL in late March, and climb his way back up the lineup early in the playoffs.
With the new playoff salary cap rules the Oilers will likely have to sit one or two of Magpie, Henrique, Frederic, or even Jarry in the playoffs on a game-by-game basis, but allows them to add a salaried skater or goalie.
The playoff cap is going to bring some interesting implications. I’d bet that highly-paid starters will get healthy scratched surprisingly often, allowing teams to add a highly-paid forward or defenseman.
He’s been cleared by the doctors, LTIR is not an option.
Unless they make a material add with accrued cap space (which seems VERY unlikely given they been in LTIR most of the year) or via season ending LTIR (which is not an option with Frederic given he’s already been cleared by doctors), any addition will really be money in and money out and they won’t need to sit anyone to ice their best roster.
I don’t think any player that sticks in the NHL has an effort problem, or they wouldn’t have
Frederic is in a slump he needs to shake it off he’s only 27. I have not given up on soon to be 3% of our cap and nor will I until I see him in the playoffs.
Just looking at top speed numbers, the worry for me is that we see a speed drop last year, which obviously included measurements taken prior to the high ankle sprain.
2022-3: 22.79 – 82nd percentile
2023-4: 22.75 – 78th
2024-5: 22.05 <50th percentile
2025-6: 21.72. <50th percentile
So there is a 1.5% drop in max speed from this year relative to last year, but there is already a 3.1% drop from last year and the year prior.
There is now a cumulative loss of 4.7% of max speed.
Going from around 80th percentile, where he beats most players to pucks, to under 50th where he’s losing most puck races is a big problem for a guy whose job it is to forecheck.
Leon Draisaitl famously played through a high ankle sprain during the 202 Stanley cup playoffs.
For the 2022-3 season, his top speed was 23.31 mph or 95th percentile. He has been in that range since.
I think speed bursts affect players more than top speed. The NHL is a stop start league, often Europeans have to have ‘swooping’ coached out of how they skate
The ankle sprain if it’s still an issue would make that much harder. I recall Leon’s limiting him that way as well
The biggest thing that doesn’t keep with this being injury – why is his top speed worse this season after having months of recovery versus 2025 playoffs?
My take is a lot of this is a lack of confidence or comfort (which admittedly could be from feeling slower or less agile). Even when he has time and space with the puck, he simply doesn’t make plays. It’s usually a turnover of some sort. Compare that to other slower players like Tomasek or Perry where you see them at least attempt to make plays.
That would point to lack of summer training, right?
Yes and no. It still doesn’t make sense that he was faster in the playoffs compared to this season
Beat me to it. I should have scrolled down a but before responding similar to higher comment lol.
Now, as joyful as it is to see McDavid back to peak McDavid (and I forgot to mention in my last post that his “in-zone structure game”, including the PP, is back to generational levels, it seems to be what’s driving this team through their current stretch (8-3-1 in their last 12 I believe).
I do think the Oilers have been playing better 2-way hockey as a team, they are out of their early season “don’t give a crap” malaise and playing/defending with a purposes, etc.
There are bad games and blips but they aren’t just gifting their opponents 5-alarm chances with regularity.
At the same time, pretty much ALL the offence is coming from the top 6 and, mainly, the PP.
Nuge as 3C would/should certainly help this but Nuge on Connor’s wing seems to give McDavid the comfort to be “peak McDavid”.
It would be awesome to add a Coyle or a Ryan O’Reily but this team has been in LTIR most of the season, accruing all but no cap space and look to be very close to money in and money out at the deadline – and they moved their easy cap dump in Kulak.
Its tough to seem Henrique moved out (NMC and he wants to be on a run with the Oilers this season) and they aren’t going to send either Mang or Frederic to the AHL (and Fred also has a NMC so can’t got without his consent).
Activating Kap, Philp, Clatt will not help this.
I love me some Josh Samanski, and i do think he may play in the NHL this season (and will play in the league for sure) but its tough to think of him as “the answer”.
There isn’t cap room to call up a bunch of kids and see if that will work.
How they try and “fix” this will be interesting.
Henrique would function well as a 4C in the Derek Ryan role. Smart player, not able to impact the game as he used to but still could play an important role on a team with playoff aspirations
I wonder if Edmonton could acquire Bryan Rust out of Pittsburg. He could play up with Connor & Zach allowing them to play Nuge at 3c. If in fact Nuge is the solution to bolstering the bottom six.
geeez that is tempting… add a pick there – Rust will have a big price tag
Pittsburg wants to get younger and Edmonton has some interesting young prospects.
He’s 33 and makes the same money as the Nuge for the next couple years. Of course Dubas will want the moon.
Going to be tough to find $5.125MM of cap space – unlikely Pit retains for 3 years without a hefty price added.
100% OP
I was thinking that with last night’s game, this type of offensive play isn’t sustainable once we hit the playoffs, where as we know, the whistles go further into the pockets and the games aren’t won with a pp and where 97 and Drai are blanketed and shut down at points.
We will be cooked with this bottom 6, it is a black hole even compared to last year. If we can focus on the bottom 6 be it internal additions (questionable) or somehow externally this team can do damage. As of now we are not as good as last year and the it is the bottom 6 for the most part, though this seems obvious. I like the Jarry/Ingram/Pickard trifecta moving forward in the tender department.
It is so joyful to watch Connor McDavid right now, he “is back”.
We all watched Connor McDavid grow up in the NHL and his game evolve in many ways but the one thing that was there from the very beginning was the elite rush and ability to beat NHL d-men and forwards (often on a 1 on 2 or a 1 on 3 and sometimes 1 on 4) and get to the net.
I got used to McDavid making at least one such rush a game and, when he was feeling it, multiple times per game. He found a way to get the puck with clean air and beat the defenders, every game, sometimes multiple times.
For me, that was all but gone from his game for most of last year and the beginning of this year. He wasn’t finding clean air and, when he did, there were so many puck bobbles that were just not there in previous years and, of course, he was thwarted by the d-man with regularity.
Well, to my eye, my goodness this recent stretch has been back to prime McDavid, 64 goals/153 point prime McDavid, a player the league has never seen before. He’s back to playing like not just “one of the best players in the league today” but like one of the best attackers in the history of the sport.
Honestly this is a good natured comment: I’ve never seen anyone use quotation marks in such a slightly odd manner.
He was on pace for 122pts while battling nagging injuries after his first unsuccessful trip to the cup, which would of won the art ross.
He had 13 games out of 67 with 3 or more points, elite no matter how you look at it.
Seems like he was finding more clear air then you’d like to admit.
I’m not sure what stated production has to do with the premise of my post.
Nice quote from Thanos re McDavid, Lowetide. And you thought I wouldn’t notice.
Does 97 have only 1 period per game of super nova human cheat sheet in him?
I would suggest there were two last night.
They kinda got swarmed late in the 2nd and most of the 3rd, but held on. Good for Ingram picking up the win. He looked a bit shaken to start but played a solid game.
McD is just a beast right now. That line is playing well.
Roslovic looked a little step behind and sure that speed and game shape will come in after the Xmas break.
The Oilers do need to upgrade on the 3rd dot for sure to at least add some offense. Nuge would be the perfect guy in that spot, but I think McDavid wants his line to stay the way it is. He even made that comment back when they were put back together how much he liked playing with those guys.
Henrique is not a legite 3rd line Cman that helps add offense to that line. Sure his D is solid but that line will have to add offense late in the year and especially in the playoffs.
I really think that Regula had a rough outing again last night and really has pretty much every start for a bit now. Will be nice to get Walman back and in the lineup.
Oilers are playing very good hockey overall for sure, especially the top 6 offensively.
Let’s hope they keep it up and give the Flames a big chunk of Coal on Tuesday night for Christmas.
Regula is 3rd pairing RD. We are playing him in the 2RD role due to injuries. So lets cut him some slack please. Once Wallman is back he will slot in as the 2RD. At $7 million for next year he is not staying in the 5/6 spot. It’s too soon to slot Stasney into the off side 2RD role. And I love Stasney so far.
Roslovic is a huge add. Gives the Draisaitl line a big push. He needs to stay there.
Reggula is playing himself out of a job. Loved his game in preseason, but he hasn’t been the same since the Kane hit, and his skating is starting to get exposed. Right now he looks like a Vinny Desharnais with better puck skills.
Stasney is looking good so far. I like him on the right side with Nurse. Based on my viewings so far I think our depth chart on defense is
Eckholm Bouchard
Nurse Stasney
Wallman Emerson/Regula
I would have to say that Regula is a much better skater than Vinnie Desharnais. You’re right he has been making some costly errors of late. But it’s nothing he won’t come out of.
I would expect Walman to play with Nurse when he eventually returns and Stastney to continue playing with Emberson. Regula will be a valuable the #7.
I don’t know. Watching him pivot and go back for pucks, I see a lot of similarities to Desharnais.
Nursw stasney has not appeared that well in my brain thus far.
Probably too early to make the call, but Stasney appears to have the skating ability and puck skills and poise to play his off side.
So does Walman.
He does, but I really haven’t been that impressed with him on the right side this year
A full healthy Walman with regula likely better.results than with nurse.
Walman has nasty type defense capabilities before the whistle goes far higher percent than nurse does. Effective nastiness, if you will.
Why? Walman has higher defensive awareness. Nurse’s altheticism is a blessing and a curse and i believe it’s why he’s often chasing the puck possession over anticipating what’s next and controlling his area accordingly. Just pure physical giftedness he excelled in his developmental years without having to use his head as much to stay competitive.
Regula is a young D who has up’s and downs. The whole team was gassed last night, so it is not unusual to see some players have uneven performances. Too much has happened this season to write him off. He will be a critical piece for the post season. I am sure of it.
Walman is not a 3rd line D. But chemistry/fit matter, and I suppose playing 2nd/3rd pair fairly equally is not a bad thing
To fix the defense Oilers need to get a 2 LHD. Someone that can move Nurse down to 3 LHD where he can thrive.
Eck-Bouch
New Guy-Walman
Nurse-Emberson/Stastney/Regula
Cap issues won’t allow that to happen this season, but that’s the solution.
The arguments for waiving Stecher instead of Regula or Emberson were clear.
Still, I remained uncomfortable. Stecher was a proven gamer.
Looks like we waived the wrong defenseman.
was at the game last night and thought exactly this: Regula is a Desharnais with more skill and less snarl.
Does not really hit. Is not very fast. Has had addled moments in his own end. Has made some surprisingly skilled passes, both of the stretch kind and the quick give n go variety (last night surprised me with a quick spring of Drai off the boards just inside the opposition blueline).
I really, really want this player to work out. If he can be as responsible defensively as Seaweed, AND skate a little better than Vinnie (no getting passed in the outside by speed), AND not have the puck die on his stick… That’s PERFECT third pairing blue.
Regula can outlet pass way better than nurse or des
Regula is developing his “away from the puck” game but also provides 3-4 puck play examples per game of why its worth the investment.
The pass to Drai on the 1st goal last night as an example.
Lets not forget, he didn’t play at all last season and he’s an NHL rookie 30 games in.
Regula as you said can get the biscuit up the ice and on the tape. You have to be patient with young journeyman D unlike young forwards who show their game at a early age the Regula types take until their late 20’s before they start peaking.
I respect the hell out of you, LT, but I wholeheartedly disagree with moving RNH to the third line.
The idea is based on good intentions but it is based on faulty reasoning;
anyone can score with McDavid (I wish this were true, but it’s not)anyone can drive play with McDavid against top line opposition (that wasn’t true for the first part of the season, before RNH and Hyman formed the dominant trio)a better third line is more important than a lesser first linea better third line can only be achieved by pulling RNH down 2 lines
That last point is an important one. Taking Frederic off the 3rd line is the first step. Adding someone like Savoie, also good. Another AHL call up would be even better, or getting Mangiapane going or cycling him with Hutson or Howard
I’m beginning to think Freddy should go on LTIR and get into some serious rehab on that ankle or whatever it is that’s bothering him. Because he isn’t the same player that we saw in Boston.
He’s only 27 something is going on with this guy? We’re all hoping it’s the high ankle stain and he’ll return to Boston form. I think the fans have been hard on him. Like I said earlier some players take a year to settle in. Moving is a big deal and I’m unsure if Frederic is married and has any kids? It’s almost a must we get him going and thst he covers his cap hit for the next 4-5 years.
I think he is turning into an off-season project if he has any chance to recover. They keep saying his ankle is fine, but then KK gave a weird-ass response:
“I don’t know if it’s fair for me to say that he’s 100 percent over it,” said Knoblauch. “I know he’s cleared.
“I shouldn’t say that it’s not bothering him, but from what I know, it’s fairly healthy, he’s fairly healthy, but maybe there are some side effects to it. But Trent’s a pretty proud guy. I think he plays through a lot of pain, and under circumstances, I don’t think there’s pain from this injury, but I don’t think it’s fair for me to absolutely say, for certain, that he’s not having some side effects of that.”
Source; Oilers Nation – https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-kris-knoblauch-details-trent-frederic-healthy-scratch-lingering-effects-injury
I think they are saying he’s too healthy for IR, but is clearly different.
The more concerning thing is if this is him at 100%
Its 2 different things to say something has healed and he’s at 100%.
The example I use is Stamkos when he came back from all those leg injuries. He admitted it took him about a year to trust his legs and get over the mental block that he could drive the net and his leg wouldnt crumble again.
Maybe Fred needs time to realize his ankle is fine, like Ricky Bobby and driving again.
I am absolutely no professional but its obvious this is not Fred. What we don’t know is if this is the new normal.
That’s what I just said. If this is him
at 100%, which hopefully is not the case, his NHL career is over <1 game into his 8 year contract.
If you blew 30+ million of company dollars on a non-functional item, what would be the result? How patient would they be? I think it’s okay to be optimistic, but realism/pragmatism would suggest that patiently waiting for a career bottom 6 player to re-establish that level for months and possibly years is a situation that no NHL team should find themselves in months into a 8 year contract. And fans have every right to be fuming when McDavid took approximately a 4 mil/season pay cut
We know you require immediate results from everything but it doesn’t work that way most of the time.
Bad high ankle sprains are known to often take a good year or so to fully recover. The player can be cleared (and not eligible for LTIR as cleared by the doctor) but the ankle still not where it can be.
We saw this with Drai the year after playing a series and a half on his ankle sprain in the playoffs. His skating was not near his top level that following season. Of course we are talking about a quasi-generational player in his prime so Leon was still great but his skating was clearly hampered.
Frederic played on his ankle sprain for 4 series, 2-months.
Now this is not fact, I am not in the know, but its reasonable to believe that his ankle is still recovering – as per above, not eligible for LTIR as cleared but not 100%.
While part of it is likely mental, to go along with the physical but the ankle is required for almost everything on the ice, support in battle, every edge, leverage in the hits, etc.
I do think there are areas where he is struggling that are not related – I mean, scrum it up a little more, find a way to be a pain in the ass.
I’m sure its hard without trust in the ankle and confidence at an all time low.
In any event, this is an 8-year deal, we KNOW he’s played at a much different level in those 2 season in Boston – I mean the Bruin fans (who are tough) loved him.
I am confident he’ll recover his level of play but not as confident that will be this season – hoping though.
I agree 100% I seen good Frederic and I do believe he can return to form. Judging by one of the nastiest crosschecks (Roy) to the chops that I have ever seen as well as the left he was begging for after recieving so many rights from Oliver had me knowing he is a tough cookie. I think he obviously came back to early from the initial sprain and was playing at 75% during the playoffs. I’ve listened to countless players talk openly about playing injured as not to loose their spot and also not let down their teammates. It’s too bad Sportsnet was so lame I would like to hear Beiska open up as I like his take on things. I like listening to shows like spittin chicklets or players like Smid who I find hilarious giving his hockey and life stories on how tough and humble most players are. You’ve probably heard Sheldon Souray give his recount on how much pain he played with look no further than Kane playing with one arm in the Finals 2 years ago
So with all that said, what is the purpose of keeping him on the NHL roster at this point?
Not eligible – cleared by doctors to play.
I would like to see Savoie, Howard and Hutson on the third line.
The three snurfs. That would work.
They can draw penalties then give the puck hogs Connor-Leon-Bouchard-Nuge-Hyman 1.53 of PP time. Howard can get the last 7 seconds in the shooter spot with endless feeds coming from Walman and Nurse.
What a wonderful imagination you have.
Clattenburg is a smart guy he understands his role of boosting energy throwing some hits baiting the opposition into a penalty and did I also say scoring the odd goal by going to the kill zone. What was Hutson role? When Howard was getting shit minutes what was his role? I like Savoie on the PK and I hope they give him the green light as I could see 4-5 SH goals with the Bryan kind of sneaky speed on the PK. Savoie in the top 6 is another story. Howard should be playing top 6 he’s played against men in College winning the Hobey Baker Award. Howard has a high IQ he was figuring it out even with garbage minutes. He already knows how to play against men he’s learning nothing in the AHL he couldn’t be learning in the NHL. Howard would be getting minutes and opportunities by a least 25 teams in the NHL as we speak. We are losing Goals because our coach is already stressed playing 1 rookie already in the top 6
Howard’s overall game was not ready to play in the top six – i explained this in another response to you, you ignore the response as it doesn’t jive with your narrative – his board play, his play at the defensive blue line, his stick positioning, his positioning staying above the opposition high in the zone, etc. – not at the level needed to play in the top 6 on this team.
Hence the assignment to the top development league in the world, where he is working on these things, while getting huge minutes and having a great time doing it.
Playing against 22 year old “men” in college is not even close to what one gets in the AHL, let along the NHL.
We are increasing Howard’s potential to reach his ceiling, properly developing this player.
Can’t be worse than Frederic Henrique and Mangiepanic, can they?
Yes the Kid line would do damage. They sat Frederic maybe they’ll start sitting Mangiapane-Henrique-Janmark either start producing one of goals-assists-hits-tilting the ice in a good way-responsible hockey.
Ingrams paint job.. Elementary school from the front, insane asylum from the back.
Beautiful.
Paint by numbers.
I don’t know how this hasn’t been circulated on Twitter yet but Matheson asked Knoblauch last night if he knows the Ingram family from both being from Imperial, SK. He said he knows them well – Ingram’s dad was Knoblauch’s homeroom teacher in Grade 7, volleyball coach, and football coach. Awesome stuff.
Clearly, Knoblauch and Ingram should referred to as Imperial Oil.
I would have been more surprised if there wasn’t a connection between those two, Imperial being <500 people.
More importantly, does he know my mom’s family? She’s only been gone since 1967, so it is not out of the realm of possibility.
All the finest people are from Saskabush.
Yes we are! 🥳 😜 But after enough prairie winters growing up I have now relocated to the tropics. It is faster and easier to cool down in the swimming pool than to warm up after shovelling the driveway…
I too look forward to the day when I can permanently ditch the snow. The better half still likes her changing of the seasons though.
What to do, what to do…
Some may be aware of my hypothesis on what constitutes a Stanley Cup juggernaut. A team so dominant that it takes the usual randomness out of hockey where only injury or catastrophic bag luck/goaltending can cost you a Cup. Or I suppose facing another juggernaut which might be the case this year. Anyway, Think Avs of 2022 who felt inevitable.
My theory is that for THIS team the formula is;
1. McDavid/Bouchard fivesome approach 60% xG
2. Draisaitl/Nurse fivesome over 55% xG
3. Rest at or near 50%
We’ve checked most of these boxes in the last few years but not all three. Ceci/Nurse has been the most obvious flaw where >55% wasn’t possible because they couldn’t keep offensive zone time at elite levels. Enter Walman, Klingberg to try and solve that.
Anyway, where are we since Nov 20th Tampa? Not as close as you’d think.
Most of the top 10 guys are 52-53% xG.
97-18-93-14-2 average around 52%.
29-22-92-25-75 average around 50%; Nurse and either ROS/Savoie are down at 48%.
The rest aren’t real close to 50%. Mangi, Janmark and Lazar are around 50% but some of the rest including surprisingly Stastney are down in the 42% range.
All of this to say that although the Oilers are playing better it’s special teams and decent goaltending and we know that is tough to go deep with.
They aren’t yet a dominant team at 5’s so still not a verifiable contender.
Coyle for 3C
Literally the only thing they need upfront to unquestionably have more than balanced 4 lines.
Nuge is better.
He’s not a very big guy, but I like the cut of his jib. Lots of fiesty in that dog!
Okay what am i missing here:
“not a big guy”
6’3″
221 lb
“Nuge is better”
->RHC with 51% FO,
->most shat eating offensive zone starts i’ve ever seen by anyone playing regular minutes at 30 some percent
-> slightly still out chancing and heavily outscoring with a big part of that being due to high danger for and against scoring…which make sense as he’s 6’3″ 221 lbs that’s the type of center be hella easy to lose a lot of close to net battles for and against.
Are there 2 charlie coyles in NHL is only thing i cqn think of for those comments.
I will slightly agree with one of these comments:
Nuge is better LEFT with hyman and mcdavid if we had a guy like charlie coyle holding down the 3rd spot type options.
He’d be great but, of course, the Oilers have accrued all but nothing being in LTIR most of the season and will likely be very close to money in and money out and they already moved out their cap dump contract upgrading 1A.
100% cap logistics are tricky to make it work. Just when i looked at all the potential deadline likely selling pieces of center and defense
He’s the one piece i believe maximizes improvement in area of need by far the biggest.
Hopefully the team stays healthy, but realistically we will have Howard, Hutson and Jarventie as viable forwards by the end of the season. That adds a whole lot of useful options.
Nobody talks about Noah Philp anymore. But I will say again he might be a viable solution at 3c. I noah none of you will agree but I’ll still put it out there.
Yeah, I don’t want to give up on Philp yet. He’s shown real promise at times.
He was in and out as 4C – not sure why we think of Philp as a potential for 3C (and I’m a guy that was calling him an NHLer over a year ago).
Post-Olympics Samanski may be an option.
He actually did play some minutes at 3c this season before he got injured.
His window was a few years ago unless the injury bug hits I’m afraid his ship has sailed on the Lavoie-Benson. Once again another Oiler forward that gets over marinated and is no longer viable. Maybe Holland would trade for him but I somehow don’t see Holland and Bowman swapping spit anytime soon.
Philp was clearly not “over-marinated”.
He played one full season in the AHL where he started off as a healthy scratch/4th liner and popped in the 2nd half.
Then, after taking a full year off, he split between the NHL/AHL and, this season, he was in the NHL from day 1.
The juggernaut you seek is in Colorado.
Last night’s 5-1 win over Minnesota was one of the most dominant performances I’ve seen in a very long time.
While the score was somewhat lopsided it doesn’t really capture the full extent of the power performance of the Avalanche.
They finished with 42 shots on goal while the Wild actually blocked another 25 with Colorado hitting the post a few times.
The game analyst mentioned shot attempts were more than 70 in the second period.
Apparently the AVs were responding to some bulletin board material provided by Wallstedt after their last meeting when he claimed an OT win by the Wild showed they were a better team. Heh.
Worth noting that every single Avalanche forward is well above 50% in xGF percentage and not one regular has a +/- below par.
The team may have a weakness but with an elite goaltending tandem and that D, I am hard pressed to find one.
You’ll get no argument here. The Avs are clearly fantastic. There are three things we know;
Plus they will have to likely facr one or both of Dallas and Minnesota in the first two rounds. These are the top three teams in the league at the moment…
I’m pretty sure the AVs know what it takes.
Their management, Bednar and a significant number of players have cup rings from 2022.
In that regular season, they were not anywhere near as dominant, finishing only 6 points ahead of Minnesota in the Central.
They went on to carve through the playoffs like warm butter with 16 wins and 4 losses including a 4-0 whitewash of the Oilers in the conference final and 4-2 over the two time cup winner from (sounds familiar) Florida….Tampa Bay Lightning.
Not saying history will repeat itself but it is the most likely outcome.
One of the easiest schedules to start the year and fresh legs from all that spring golf instead of hockey.
Just as top heavy as ever.
Given MacKinnon’s advanced age, and how quickly he blew a 12 point scoring lead in the last two weeks, Bednar better start throttling his minutes or else he can count on more April tee times in 2026.
Mackinnon is +45 in 35 games.
That’s unheard of in modern-day hockey. Other than the Flames’ top line in 2023-24 (which we obliterated in the playoffs), nobody has topped +60 since the mid-’80s.
I doubt he can continue at that pace, but it shows how dominant the Avs have been.
MacKinnon has a GF percentage above 80 and their PP has been mediocre.
They did bag a couple last night after Bednar moved Brock Nelson to PP1 and he delivered 2 primary assists on this goals.
The AVs will be even more scary if that is a sign of things to come.
Thankfully the Av’s will get bounced by the time we hit the conference final. Oilers at Dallas 3 peat I’m a little foggy today but I can’t remember that ever happening.
Harper’s hair traditional whose PDO is insanely out in front to degree it inevitably almost always simmers down when the back rent comes due by season’s end
1. Dallas 103.97
2. Colorado 103.4
3 WSH 102.83
4. TBL 102.15
102 or less is generally where top spot sits by seasom end. I think only most of the “jesus riding shotgun” teams (above 102) don’t often just not win cup but generally don’t make it to final even. Which makes sense if you actually think about it. Teams all end up within a few points spread after 82 games the historically proven outliers with unsustainable percentages have higher chance of being a mirage when the going gets tough. This isn’t rocket science.f
Cup winners PDO historic rough check PDO rank/leag end standings/playoff results:
2024/25 – FLA @99.29 (23rd)
-> 11th league
Jesus teams:
-> TBL 102.53 7th leag (1st rnd)
-> WPG 102.51 1st leag (2nd rnd)
-> TOR 102.06 4th leag (2nd rnd)
****
2023/24 – FLA @100.62 (8th)
-> 5th league
Jesus teams:
-> BOS 102.77 7th leag (2nd rnd)
-> VCR 102.72 6th leag (2nd rnd)
-> WPG 102.58 4th leag (1st rnd)
****
2022/23 – VGK @101.29 (3rd)
-> 5th league
Jesus teams:
-> BOS 103.59 1st leag (1st rnd)
****
2021/22 – COL @101 43 (4th)
-> 2nd league
Jesus teams:
-> STL 102.38 9th leag (2nd rnd)
-> MIN 102.33 5th leag (1st rnd)
*1 2 & 4th highest PDO teams gotta signify feasting on bottom of that division just likely not NHL caliber opponents remotely
****
2020/21:- TBL @100.52 (12th)
->8th league
Jesus teams
-> MIN 102.25 9th leag (1st rnd)
-> TOR 102.10 6th leag (1st rnd)
****
2019/20 – TBL@102.13 (2nd)*
-> 4th league
Jesus teams:
-> COL 102.25 3rd leag (2nd rnd)
****
2018/19 – STL@100.18 (13th)
-> 12th league
Jesus teams:
-> WSH 102.25 4th leag (1st rnd)
-> NYI 102.18 5th leag (2nd rnd)
****
2017/18 – WSH@101.62 (4th)
Jesus teams:
-> TBL 102.21 1st leag (3rd rnd)
****
2016/17 – PIT@101.21 (5th)
-> 2nd league
Jesus teams:
-> WSH 102.9 1st leag (2nd rnd)
****
2015 /16 – PIT@100.5 (10th)
-> 4th league
Jesus teams:
-> NYR 102.47 9th leag (1st rnd)
-> FLA 102.21 7th leag (1st rnd)
PDO darlings (102+) playoffs
—–
:
19 teams 8n last 10 years
1st rnd exits = 9/19
2nd rnd exits = 8/19
3rd exits = 1/19
SC exit = 0/19
SC win = 1/29
And again this should make sense to you if you were to actually use PDO for any team aside from the rare instance in the past when you managed to find a wsy to neg oilers with it. Seriously the biggest reason i have come to appreciate how relatively predictive this stat really seems to be is because every single season for so lomg now you’ve been in an embarrasingly thirsty rush to jumo aboard hottest team’s wagon. That kraken year one will always kill me how funny it was when you were just constsntly bamging their gong through 2/3 rds of that season then just bailed when wagon came crashing inevitably back to reality.
So i guess, consider this my thanks for being annoying enough when you go too far off the deep end in your oiler loathing or pdo pony hyping.
Merry christmas HH. Sincerely hope doing relatively better in health department things.
1. Top 5 ranked season ending team in the 100.50 – 101.50 range likely the most dangerous thing. They are good enough to appear lucky dort of advantage
2. Middling 6-12 teams floating around honestly doing so 100.0 – 100.75 not imposter syndome attached
3.the lowest ranked qualifying teams sub 100 that like traversed cursed gtound and are still in likely dangerous
In my brain these are likely where the winner is found.
But please keep same spot leopard thing going
Haven’t looked closely at impact of below NHL replacement team in divsion factor yet but logically this would be huge.
Like theirs competitive losing and then there is just washington wizard make em look way better effects in play that if identified would weaponize predictive efficiency of PDO/season record standings playoff performance that i think really could be as strong as any basis for preditctive modelling for a stas minded person with a critical thinking brain.
If one takes this PDO analysis seriously, (I don’t) teams should pursue being average in the regular season since that would guarantee playoff success in your line of thinking.
However, playoff success IS subject to many things that cannot be predicted including, injury, coaching strategy, strength of opponent, travel schedule, etc. etc.
To me, the best strategy is to build the best roster possible, position yourself in the best possible playoff position by winning in the regular season and having a seasoned coaching staff that can make proper adjustments as required.
Colorado obviously is doing all of those but that still doesn’t guarantee anything as there are too many unknown variables.
Moneypuck has a very sophisticated projection model that currently gives Colorado the best chance to win the cup at only 10.3% with Carolina projected to come out of the east at 9.3%.
Since you seem somewhat hyper focused on regular season standings being an impediment to playoffs success, here is the Moneypuck projection of the final standings among the actual playoff contenders in the WC:
COL – 117.3
DAL – 106.9
MIN – 103.9
VGK – 101
LAK – 96.6
ANA – 95.0
EDM – 94.5
UTA – 88.1
If, as projected, those create the playoff matches, I am curious what your PDO model predicts which teams will have playoff success.
Its odd that one that constantly cites unsustainable shooting percentages (either direction) as a primary factor in forward analysis claims to not take PDO seriously…..
PDO is a very blunt instrument in that it doesn’t account for how and why a player or team might have a high value.
For example….
Nathan MacKinnon has generated 161 SOG…the next highest player in the league, Jason Robertson, has generated 141.
McDavid is 10th at 122 while Draisaitl is 28th at 101.
Do you think it is preferable that players generate fewer shots on goal?
Colorado, as a team, is #1 in the league with 34.8 SOG/G while the Oilers are in 16th place with 28.3.
Would you suggest Colorado shoot less to attempt to bolster their shooting percentages?
Colorado, while being the highest scoring team in the league, at 4.03 GF/G has TWO elite goaltenders that have allowed the fewest GA/GP in the league at 2.17 GA/G with LAK next best at 2.50 and the Oilers getting shelled at 3.38 which is 25th in the league.
Sure, the Avalanche have a very high PDO but they have earned every bit of it with a high octane offense and only 80 goals against which is 10 fewer than the next best team and 47 better than the Oilers who are 31st in the league.
Sometimes, you have to recognize excellence in others…I suggest you give it a whirl.
Shooting percentage is a very blunt instrument in that it doesn’t account for how and why a player or team might have a high value.
You use shooting percentage all the time.
Of course I do if it is significantly higher or lower than established norms.
MacKinnon is running hot this season but that has to be tempered by the Avalanche mediocre PP results.
So WHY is MacKinnon having more success this season?
Do you think it might have something to do with having a linemate like Martin Necas who is a zone entry savant?
Or could it be a team-wide thing where every player is functioning at a very high level?
Another blunt instrument is plus/minus but it is telling that 7 of the top 10 players in the league play for Colorado.
MacKinnon +45
Necas +34
Lehkonen +32
Makar +32
Manson +25
Toews + 23
Burns +21
That’s the entire top 5 attacking unit and the second D pair.
Absolute dominance.
Plus minus witchcraft. You literally will use anything you can find that supports your “point” and ignore any that doesn’t intrinsically support narrative -> while alternating those arbitraily on a case by case basis.
I don’t mind. It’s like watching a WWF match guy get out of being pinned down. An act of sorts, but entertaining.
My point is that the only consistent thing about basically any framework when you go on thirsty tilt too hard is “whatever currently is the hottest team in the league, preferably western conference based and ideally pacific division is the team i am going to incessantly try to interject into every comment on a thread if i can find slightest opening.
There is one question maybe you might have the kindness of answering?
Pick a version:
1. Were you ever a fan of edmonton oilers and if so, what was the moment you changed into an antifan?
2. Where on this doll did the bad oiler man touch you?
Not so much a model. But i’ll give it a go. Just an oddly consistent pattern that gut instinct of a mathematical savaant like odd brained guy with exceptionally gifted pattern recognition abilities in surely close to highest percentile of population distribution keeps holding pretty true.
Regression to the mean is a thing regardless of strawmanning exit ramps offered it doesn’t change logically accepting
Martin necas is not magically so good at zone entry that somehow that makes a 3% drop in SF% make a 22% increase in GF% happen.
It doesn’t magically make it sustainable that after an exceptional.career of above average GF% compared to GFx% in the bang onish to +10ish% variety jump to 22% level.
A TEAM on ice shooting percentage of a mike bossy worth 15% indeed shoukd not be a suprise plus minus is amazing. 15% is ridiculous and if an oiler line had it you’d for sure be all over it.
On ice sv% 95.4% and you don’t bat an eye there at all eh? They are just amazing in a clearly justifiable way.
5×5 nathan mckinnon has a 1.1 PDO…previous highs like the ungodly as it gets a couple times close to 1.03. For sure necas zone right. Like all galaxy team hall of fame worthy in like a space jam cartoon way obviously.
Underlying numbers look similar to other years -> one of the best in the game present day…but unless you have it proof he went down to the cross roads this summer 1 of these seasons looks a lot like the others exceot for one mysterious thing.
Fill your boots if you like!
But I’d seriously consider pumping the breaks a bit there bud the corner you usually miss is coming again.
I wish I could put my finger exactly on why, but it’s hard to understand why they can’t get there with the personnel they have
Meanwhile the panthers are rolling, beyond their recent record. Since Nov 29 they are 8-2-1, they have 4 Power Wins (by 2 or more goals, no empty net), but what stands out to me is they are 6-0 against playoff teams, almost half of their games against playoff teams
I hate them of course, but they have done it with this roster:
Loustarinen Lundell Reinhart
Verhaeghe Bennett Marchand
Boqvist Rodrigues Greer
Gregor Kunin Studnicka
Forsling Ekblad
Mikkola Jones
Balsinkis Petry
I’m sorry but this is not a line up that jumps out and says ‘defeats all playoff comers’. Or even goes on a hot streak. Lots of guys that couldn’t crack last year’s team, lots of guys playing up too high, Rod playing 3C and he usually doesn’t. Bob is at .888 and Tarasov .900 so it’s not goalies
This is a system – coaching – effort – drive thing. What is it that the Oilers aren’t getting? Why can’t they mostly play to their potential?
East is soft and the Panthers get away with spearing goalies in the cubes.
Nothing to see here other than Campbells goons getting away with it like (checks notes) the early 10’s Boston Bruins who had….. Campbells son on it.
— We should be relieved (but not surprised) that December has been better.
— I firmly believe based on all the inputs available: the attribution to what ailed this team was miss allocated: by far the relative travel rest and schedule of the Oilers vs opponents was the biggest factor.
— January is the most favourable month for the Oilers by far in terms of the relative rest and travel and B2Bs of opponents
— Not sure if they can go lights out with the current goalie tandem. Probably reasonable to assume Jarry is back after the Olympics (or maybe squeezes one or two to see before)
According to them Jarry will be back Early in the new Year
Did they say which year?
— I read “weeks”. Who knows though
Coach said “a couple of weeks” – early in the new year but don’t know exactly when.
Kap and Walman closer to Jan 1 (although maybe not quite that day).
Of course, these words likely mean very little.
I hope it’s not the Chinese New Year.
This is bang on. This is going to be a very whacky season with the scheduling and olympics. You will see more and more injuries as the season goes on.
Agreed – this is no different than each of the last two seasons.
December has been a monster move up the standings for this team 3 years in a row.
A big difference this season is the Oilers schedule was so travel heavy in the first half that they have such a strong positive schedule in that regard going forward. I don’t know where they are with “quality of opponent” but, truth be told, travel/fatigue and related energy is often more important on any given night.
Ok, KK finally had Federic eating popcorn – team did not miss him in the least.
Now it is time for Mangiapane to join him in the press box. In 9:17 of ice time last night he managed to take 2 penalties, be negative on take aways – give aways and have one shot on net. It should be noted that he was close to scoring or setting one up last night, but the NHL is about results, and he is currently rocking along at 1.38 pts/60. Mangiapane has played 17:48 of PK and been on the ice of 5 goals against so he is not getting it done as a penalty killer either.
Time for the team to try someone else.
Yes. This would be a good contract to trade.
My observation is he tends to turn into the boards with the puck in the o-zone. It generally results in being rubbed out and the puck heading towards centre in a heartbeat. He appears tentative to drive wide and protect the puck. Size matters when speed is dropping.
Hutson can eat this lunch all day long.
We have Frederic for 7 plus more years tomorrow we may find out what he’s made off. If he comes out against Calgary with a burr up his arse then l’ll be happy with that. If he’s invisible then sit him again. We seen what Clattenburg and now Jones can do transforming the whole botton 6 into more of a contact team. Jones has been very effective on his hard forecheck I hope both Jones-Frederic play against that big yard ape in Klapka and you know Lomberg will want to Scrap at least once in the back-to-back games coming up. I’m predicting Jarry comes back in 10 games starting yesterday and the Ingram-Pickard hold the fort going 7-2-1 for 15 points out of a possible 20
Seriously hoping Frederic sits for more than one game.
Based on coaches post game comments, I doubt he’s back tomorrow barring injury or illness forcing it.
Max Jones is way more effective than Trent Frederic at the moment . Good thing the Bruins threw him into the deal. I would suggest they keep Jones around until Freddy gets fixed.
Maybe a new nickname for Trent Frederic could be Minimum Jones.
I doubt it will catch on, but that’s very clever.
Mangiapane was not an NHL player last night.
Mang has earned a press box seat every bit as much as Frederic and maybe even more because of how horrible he is defensively. Last now was wildly poor with his usual non-effectiveness plus penalties. I heard had a good game against the Wild, I missed that one in full.
He was terrible last night and he could sit along with Fred with Tomasek inserted. Listening to the coach post-game, I think its unlikely Fred plays tomorrow – they are looking for a strong re-set with him.
Bad high ankle sprains are known to often take a good year or so to fully recover. The player can be cleared (and not eligible for LTIR as cleared by the doctor) but the ankle still not where it can be.
We saw this with Drai the year after playing a series and a half on his ankle sprain in the playoffs. His skating was not near his top level that following season. Of course we are talking about a quasi-generational player in his prime so Leon was still great but his skating was clearly hampered.
Frederic played on his ankle sprain for 4 series, 2-months.
Now this is not fact, I am not in the know, but its reasonable to believe that his ankle is still recovering – as per above, not eligible for LTIR as cleared but not 100%.
While part of it is likely mental, to go along with the physical but the ankle is required for almost everything on the ice, support in battle, every edge, leverage in the hits, etc.
I do think there are areas where he is struggling that are not related – I mean, scrum it up a little more, find a way to be a pain in the ass.
I’m sure its hard without trust in the ankle and confidence at an all time low.
In any event, this is an 8-year deal, we KNOW he’s played at a much different level in those 2 season in Boston – I mean the Bruin fans (who are tough) loved him.
I am confident he’ll recover his level of play but not as confident that will be this season – hoping though.
Shout out to Connor Ingram!
Post game interview is a must watch:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=s4szxwNh-YU
Welcome back from a long journey young man… clap clap. Well done sir!
“My reading comprehension is below-average”
This guy is awesome
That was awesome he looked happy playing good and winning his first game as a Oiler especially against a rival like Vegas was special. Maybe the best therapy will be guiding the Oilers to the Cup. Both Jarry-Ingram game play looked calm-steady I’m liking this possible new tandem for 3 Cup runs with McDavid
Love it, hope nothing but the best for this guy and that he can keep finding his game and feeling supported on this journey.
The first 30 minutes were beautiful that was the Oilers of the 80”s and the last 30 minutes was also like the 80’s Oilers. I hope this team continues to turn it on when they want. Bring up Howard give him the Savoie treatment and he will score his nickname is the Iceman for Christs sake.
You can’t be serious with this recent posting that his nickname means anything and should be a factor in his development, right?
Little doubt he’ll be back in the NHL in due course, be it injury or be it the organization having determined he’s improved on what he went down there to improve on, aside from what we know, he can score.
The only thing that’s changed for Howard is ice-time and opportunity. Howard needs minutes Howard is not a 4th line energy player. Let’s see how many goals Hyman or Nuge score getting virtually no ice time. If they call Howard back-up and give him 5:30 minutes a game he’s going to be no better then he was before he went down. Howard was not making many errors with his 5 minutes of ice time but he sure and the hell wasn’t going for it either with a coach that has one set of rules for the vets and another for the rookies. I happen to love his nickname Iceman-Iceman-Iceman
The main thing that changed for Howard was the level of play going from the NCAA to the NHL – the talent of the players, the size of the players, the systems and structure of the players, the speed of the game, the lack of space, the lack of time and, with all that, the requirement to be able to make responsible and hard plays.
I agree that Howard needs minutes and is not a 4th line player but he wasn’t ready to play those minutes that are against tougher comp and require the type of play referenced above – he is playing those minutes and developing the needed skills in the AHL – this will allow him to play those minutes in the NHL.
When called up this year, and he will be, he’ll likely get the Savoie treatment and start on the 3rd line with the clear ability to earn the top 6 minutes if he’s developed those skills enough – like Savoie.
Well lets keep him in the AHL all year maybe he’ll win the scoring title by beating the Griffith of the world. I give it another month before the Broberg-Holloway rumours start. I don’t think Howard is a problem child him and his agent have only 2.5 years before he gets paid and he’s not going to get paid leading the AHL by beating out the Frk—Philips of the world. Howard has way more upside offensively than Savoie. Savoie is really good PKer but he’s more of a checker let’s say he’s going to be a complete player Howard on the other hand could be a 30 plus goal scorer yet the Oilers don’t have a chair and a plate for him at the adult kitchen table.
Why are you providing a Strawman?
Noone said anything about keeping him in the AHL all season and, in fact, I’ve posted many times that he’ll be back up later this season.
Why do you post things like that?
Only 2.5 years? Only?
That is so much time and its the time in the AHL that will help him get top 6 NHL ice time and perform to get paid.
He’s played 14 games in the AHL and you are concerned there is only 2.5 years left (and its actually more than that)?
Yeah he gets plenty of opportunity playing in the AHL.
He was the best College player in the nation only the mighty oilers have such a vast riches of goal scorers that we need to change Howard into a checking forward. Give him another month he’ll be blocking shots on the PK
Yes, that’s clearly what they are doing – that’s the role he’s learning in the AHL, right?
You do realize that you vastly over-rate winning the Hobey Baker at the age he did, right? Take a look at the facts and the vast range of careers from players that have done that – its no lock to even be a full time NHL player let alone an impact one.
Perhaps of the orgs that drafted/signed the others had developed the players properly.
Bit of a rant:
Jack needs to stop calling the narrative and get back to calling the game.
How often is he jinxing goalies? He did it again last night. And when he dropped the “Edmonton hasn’t given up a 4-0 lead at home since..!” he lost me.
I do not object as a homer, I object as a hockey fan.
Hockey culture is highly, irrationally superstitious. Anyone whose even picked up a stick off the street and played road hockey knows you don’t:
1) Ever mention a goalie’s potential shutout and NEVER say the word itself.
2) Actually know if a game is “iced” or not. Especially if you watch the Oilers. Christ.
I think Jack is exited and honoured to be the Oilers’ play-by-play guy, he understands the historic nature of the club and so he wants to put everything in context… “These are two western titans!” Dude, its December.
… but the problem is he’s not totally enculturated. You can’t say in one breath, “a goal here and Edmonton can ice it” and then when the opposition gets a goal all of a sudden its “Game on!”
It’s like he still hasn’t accepted the anarchy of the sport.
Don’t get me wrong, in general I like Jack because he has a personality and this is something sorely lacking in corporate media. I don’t even like his personality per se, I just find it refreshing that there’s at least a personality left on air. And I have watched enough hockey that I can handle myself when he goes off on a tangent about movies from the 1980s or something. Anyway, you can tell he loves what he does.
And it’s not that I am actually worried that Ingram will let in a goal immediately just because Jack has mentioned that he’s got a shutout thus far, but he’s recently really been trying to locate the élan of every moment, and I feel it sort of reveals his distance from the culture of the sport. As if he’s trying too hard.
Jack: Get back to calling the play, sprinkle in some of your personality, and leave the contextualization to the former player. Whether Louie is the right dude for that job is another story.
(I suppose the opposite annoyance is Ron MacLean, whose proximity has seemingly granted him license to characterize everything as romantic nostalgia, but at least he’s easier to ignore.)
“Edmonton hasn’t given up a 4-0 lead at home since..!” he lost me.
I had my hands around Jack’s throat when he said that, he’s lucky I couldn’t get them through the screen lol
And guess what, they still haven’t – likely because what Jack says does not impact the play…… we all know this.
Squandering a 4-0 lead is fuk-all. The 5-0 choke against L.A had me literally puking.
Great post! I like Jack, but I am a superstitious fool. It gets to me too. It is taboo, but I also realize how willy I am and it has no affect in the game. But it bugs me.
Silly. Willy is my neighbor, lol. Football Hall of famer, wonderful person, not silly. 😁
For the ‘dude it’s December’ part that is exactly why I like Jack. Dude’s tryna bring life during the relative dog days of the season (Game 37 is no mans land imo). That game mattered, and he gave it some gravitas.
Is he perfect? Nope. But he brings an energy every night I know most people don’t have.
Personally not a fan of Louie because he has nothing new to say. Like any online personality eventually the act gets stale. He’s a great person but sometimes it doesn’t hurt to cycle someone new.
I like Jack I agree with you on Louie maybe it’s his monotone or maybe it’s how guarded he speaks. My new favourite is the Flyers radio man who I thought was pretty funny the other day. With today’s cancel culture no joke is safe.
I kind of love Jack. I probably lean more towards shaking my head with a wry smile when he does these jinxes as he has to know he’s going to receive scorn.
The two things he’s been doing more that DO annoy me are;
1. Assigning way to much value to single moments in the hope that it’s some major turning point. “Louie, mark that save by Skinner down. Could that be the moment that turns this game around”.
2. Lying to us with what is clearly top-down direction. “Louie, I’m really seeing Trent Frederic good tonight and I think you’ll agree he’s coming”.
I love Stauffer because even tho he admits he works for the Oil I think he knows he’s untouchable and will call it as he’s sees it. And he calls it pretty damned well. I always loved that with Ferraro. I wish Jack and Louie could gain comfort in being honest.
To be clear I also kind of love Jack.
I love Jack. Makes every game, ever moment exciting. Makes it fun to watch the game. Last thing I want is a robot spitting out facts only during a broadcast.
Good call and lets be honest. Jack is not a true blue Oiler fan. He was not raised on Oiler hockey, he is an American and a hockey fan. He can talk all day about iconic American cities like when he prattles on about MSG being the worlds greatest venue or the sights and sounds of Pittsburgh etc. Jack lives to call a close scoring game with excitement and panache and absolutely hates a lop sided score. As for me and mine we love it when the Oilers run up the score and score on every pp. When the other team takes penalties or if the challenges are close we always stay on the Oilers side. Screw reality and bleed orange and blue that’s me always….Not Jack!
I have hated Jack from the first time he opened his mouth.
I’m with you here.
His call is more appropriate to Stampede Wrestling than a professional hockey game.
Louie is not nearly as annoying but adds virtually nothing to the broadcast outside of cliched bromides.
I always felt sorry for the Cuban Assassin at least let him win a match or two. Every week he would be so close but never get the W.
I would suggest…. never?
What Jack says has no connection to what happens, I know you know this.
What I wear, or where I sit also has no connection but I stick with certain things after wins, even knowing it doesn’t matter.
I hope it’s not the same underwear especially after the 16 game win streak.
That winning mistaken including such laundry risk for sure.
Huge props to Connor Ingram. I posted the other day that it was borderline unfair to drop the worst goalie in the AHL still recovering from crippling mental health issues into this pressure cooker.
I am so very pleased to be wrong.
I pray the Oiler fans remain kind if things turn.
I’m no doctor and haven’t followed his mental health journey that closely but is his OCD connected to the pressure of his job, necessarily? I’m sure he knows his triggers and was speaking very confidently of the recovery program the NHL put him through. I’m hopeful he will manage the ups and downs of being an NHL goalie again while managing this illness which will follow him wherever he goes.
I know a lot about this because my partner has OCD, my children and I all have ADHD which can go hand in hand. The media makes it sound like you wash your hands constantly, check the light switch. Other obsessive, repetitive behaviors. It is so much worse. With my partner, it manifests in a fear of religion. She can’t watch loud movies. She can’t watch war movies. It is not related to your job. It is a chemical imbalance that leads a lot of people to suicide. It’s no joke. She is doing well, because we work at it and don’t pretend it’s not there. For Ingram to show up, and be confident, this man will have my respect for the rest of my life. I hope this helped. I try to be honest about my mental health because I genuinely want to help people understand. We are not crazy. We are crazy. But not in the movie way. We struggle and we overcome. And Ingram is a hero.
I might get down votes, but I want this community to understand the challenge. If any one of you ever need help, I will be there instantly. Reach out. I will respond. My email is alanvb@gmail.com. And I will talk with anyone that needs help. You are not alone.
In interviews he’s claimed that anxiety he initially connected to his work was in fact being misplaced – something redirected from other difficulties and trauma, for which he’s since done a lot of work on in therapy.
Yup. It is definitely chemical, but is absolutelytrauma related. It is a trigger. It’s not the issue but it kicks off the issue.
I am worried for my kids, and it sucks we passed this to them. But you adresse it. You cannot quit. And Ingram is a superhero, because there are days I can’t get out of bed, and this guy fights through it. It is huge. I am a huge Petr Klima fan. Adored him. Broke down when he passed. But I am so stoked for Ingram. Proud of him.
Proud of this man. Regardless of where we go. He is brave. I suffer from panic attacks and anxiety. It is terrifying to forget how to breathe. Absolutely terrifying. To perform in such a high stress job! I couldn’t. He’s a fighter. Much respect.
Autism maybe?
Reading comprehension -> dyslexia common
Anxiety -> check
Potentially overshare and can appear socially awkward -> check
OCD desire for order or specific way things serm to “need” to be done -> check
I would also suggest that, if its anything like the disease of addiction, its not curable and will always be there and he’ll always be “in recovery”.
This is to say, if presumption is correct, this isn’t a “wait until he’s 100%” and then call him up.
He will deal with his struggles, be it minute to minute, hour to hour, day to day, week to week, whether in the AHL, NHL or having moved on from the sport.
I have no idea why anyone would down vote this!!!! I hope that you would comment why. Maybe you’re lucky and don’t know anyone with mental health issues. I deal with PTSD from being a Paramedic, somedays just suck. I pray that Ingram succeeds, he fights everyday to survive.
He entered the player assistance program last year after his mom died unless you deal with something like this you will never understand, but you should try..
Once Leon signed he went out and had his best season ever. Is it possible Connor does the same this season? After a very worrying opening to the year, he’s on pace for 137 points. Yzerman would be well in range by now had he not given the field a running start. But at his current pace, he can make up serious historic ground. I want to see him at least pass Béliveau all time this season, on his way to career 2K+.
Given his really slow start, I don’t think he can catch up and pass 64G/153 points but I wonder if he can play at current pace for the rest of the season? I presume current pace (well, not quite goal per game and near 3 points per game – but in this vicinity) is similar to that season.