We are out of the break and the Oilers have a chance to finish December with a flourish. There have been times in the past when this team plays poorly in this period of the season, but there’s some real daylight up above in the Pacific right now. Catch a wave and you’re sitting on top of the world.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: Wild, Kraken, Jets (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- At home to: Sabres, Red Wings (Expected 1-0-1) 1-0-1
- On the road to: TML, Canadiens, Penguins (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- On the road to: Bruins, Wild (Expected 1-1-0) 1-1-0
- At home to: VEG, Flames (Expected 1-0-1) 2-0-0
- On the road to: Flames, Jets (Expected 1-0-1)
- At home to: Bruins (Expected 1-0-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-3, 21 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 8-3-1, 17 points in 12 games
- Season Record: 19-13-6, 44 points in 38 games
In the last 10 games, Edmonton is 7-2-1 (15 points) and the Flames 6-4-0. The goal share shows a gap, 59 to 44 percent, with the expected goals less grand canyonesque (54 to 45 percent). Oilers should win this game, but the Flames are rarely an easy out.
I wanted to talk today about Andrew Mangiapane. He has been playing a more spirited game of late, and December has brought more success than the first two months of the season. I have no idea where or if he’ll be a regular during the postseason, but it’s worth looking at his splits over the pre-Christmas run. All numbers five-on-five
- Sept-Oct: 30 pct goal share, 48 pct expected (1.23 pts-60)
- December: 56 pct goal share, 55 pct expected (.90 pts-60)
Mangiapane isn’t scoring worth a tinker’s damn. He has had a little success with Leon Draisaitl (1.92 pts-60 in 94 minutes) and with Connor McDavid (1.64 pts-60 in 183 minutes). Those numbers aren’t going to keep Nuge away from McDavid nor Podkolzin from seeing the ice with Leon. He is scoring .5 pts-60 with Adam Henrique and that’s in a significant number of minutes (120).
The goal share has enjoyed an uptick in December. Coach Kris Knoblauch may have found a line that is shy scoring but not bleeding goals in their own end.
Mangiapane-Henrique-Janmark are not sexy, and really that’s okay. In 48 December minutes, they are 1-1 goals and 65 percent expected goals. I suspect the Oilers coaching staff will consider that a success compared to the first two months of the year.
How can the team tweak the line to get more scoring? Let’s start by asking how much time the Henrique line is spending on the ice, and what level of competition is greeting them? Here are the December numbers, via Puck IQ:
- Elites 32 mins, 32 pct DFF, -25 pct REL, 0-1 goals
- Mids: 50 mins, 56 pct DFF, 6 pct REL, 1-1 goals
- Softs: 54 minus, 56 pct DFF, -4 pct REL, 0-3 goals
McDavid and Draisaitl are over 40 percent versus elites, Henrique is getting faded (23 percent of his five-on-five ice time is versus elites) and Curtis Lazar is playing even less against the best. The Henrique line has been unlucky against the soft parade, but the rel number is underwater and that’s a concern.
I remember looking at Mangiapane’s last three seasons, before this one, because he was used in a far different manner in Washington compared to Calgary. Let’s run these numbers in the last three seasons, plus this one, to see what we can find. All numbers Puck IQ, and five-on-five.
The Puck IQ numbers show that Mangiapane is no longer able to bat successfully in the heart of the order. The Washington Capitals faded him, my guess is those 192 minutes versus elites came early in the year.
Caps coaches played Mangiapane 21 percent of the time against elites, 39 percent versus the middle and 40 percent versus the soft parade via Puck IQ. Oilers coaches are playing him 31 percent versus elites, 38 percent versus mid and 31 percent against the soft parade.
In December, Mangiapane has played just 18 percent versus elites. If a coach is gifting soft minutes, results need to come. Mangiapane’s December line is doing a good job in possession versus mid and the soft parade, but should be scoring more against those opponents.
What does it all mean? Stan Bowman can waive Mangiapane (thanks, Ira!) but he can’t wish him into the cornfield. Kris Knoblauch can limit his minutes, and that’s the next step if the Henrique trio can’t score more often. Time to get a wiggle on, perhaps Mangiapane will be inspired by playing in Calgary tonight.
Are Frederic and Mangiapane even NHL calibre players anymore?
Frederic was completely invisible and Mangiapane was noticeable for all the wrong reasons. Complaining loudly about getting a penalty for grabbing the stick of that dman who clearly did not hook him loses additional respect points from me.
88 & 10 are extremely problematic players for this team.
Bottom 6
Howard/Janmark-Roslovic-Hutson
Frederic/Mangiapane-Henrique-Lazar/Kapanen
Desperate times call for desperate measures.
If Howard is still being developed, so be it. When he’s ready you can drop Janmark to the 4th, which should get the AHL rookie treatment, not the veteran treatment
A non-center, non-plus defensive player at center between two rookies – coach will never play that line.
KK seems allergic to contributors on the bottom 6. Started with Philp. Scored then sat. Next was Lazar. Not sure why he’s the guy sitting. He had been playing well in his limited ice time. Banging and crashing on 4th line brining good energy. Then Hutson scores and Frederic comes back in. What is the message being sent? Play well and you’ll sit out. We need guys on the bottom 6 just to be placeholders for when we throw the top guys over. It’s not a successful coaching approach for playoff success. Our bottom 6 helped immensely in getting us to finals last year. Connor Brown concussion and Hyman injury were both hugely impactful injuries for finals.
The top guys played great again and probably deserved at least the Bettman point. The Oilers would have loved a pulse from one of those bottom 6 guys tonight, could have won the game. Anything, really. I thought they were invisible. I’m sure it’s tough, you’re thinking you don’t want to screw up and just let McDavid and Co back on the ice to do their thing. Need more aggression and tenacity, not unlike the Flames tonight.
Ingram was so solid again, that late save/post showed great awareness/ vision. I just think his style is perfect for the team. Shame they didn’t call him up before they moved Skinner.
Fun game, nice pressure, yada yada, but this bottom 6 experiment needs to show more progress, faster. Get more ruthless. I realize they are trying to find what works, and they have all season. But there are some real black holes out there. I’ve played enough men’s league with guys that should be a tier (or more) down. Your line is basically short-handed. To drive the point home, CGY bottom 6 delivered the W tonight. Best case for EDM bottom 6 is not causing an L.
PS I don’t know if I can watch too many more button-hook wipeouts, cycle giveaways, unfinished checks, and o-zone penalties.
Lomberg & Klapka showed up Mangiapane and Frederic for sure.
Oilers did not have their legs or attention to detail tonight – bad passes all night long.
At the same time, they still did generate a ton but couldn’t finish – 4 bars.
Disappointing but, oh well, off to Winnipeg to win one on Monday!
Frickin posts…think that was our fourth, tonight. Really thought Hyman was gonna tip that last Drai shot in, too.
Lesson from this is you gotta outwork the other team to let the talent shine.
We got outworked. We got out hit. We lost way more puck battles than we won.
This was peak flamerz but we can be better.
Sure nice to play a game without losing it over our goalie.
It’s true. We didn’t deserve to win but had a chance because their team is devoid of talent, and still were one of several posts away from sending it to OT.
The Regula giveaway was egregious and put them in chase mode and caused KK to once again try the nuclear option that broke even.
And despite all that, so many players had clean looks and couldn’t get it on net.
Don’t know why Wolf goes supernova against the Oilers, he has not had a good season by basic or advanced metrics, although his uptick in play has coincided with a better December. Hopefully he’s got enough in him to get the Flames just outside of top 10 draft territory again 😉
Small sample size but goalie problem looks solved. Next up, need a 3rd line. Kap coming back will help but too many play killers in the bottom six to offer much hope and Knobs lack of trust in call ups makes solution hard to see with current roster.
Calgary is 29th in league in goals scored, and Ingram has played two of his three games against them. Vegas is in the bottom half in goals scored.
A little premature to make the call.
I think it’s safe to say our past duo would have allowed a lot more goals in every game played than Ingram and Jarry allowed.
You’re basing this on the quality of opponent over a season rather than the quality of shots faced? Not sure I buy that. Sample size for sure.
I am immensely impressed because my expectations were very low based on his AHL performance report. I think if he holds up for a few more games like this, it should be enough to demonstrate that he is superior to Pickard, and that would be a great solution that costs us no additional draft capital and takes up no additional cap space. At worst, he would be a more reliable backup. And at best, he battles for 1A/1B.
Complete lack of execution tonight. No excuses for losing to those bums.
Got to actually bare down and finish.
Handcuffed by the coach’s deployment in the bottom 6, but still. Ugh…
Story of game. 4 posts. Zero contributions from bottom 6 again. Ingram solid again.
This bottom six will not contribute. They are not capable. If the coaching staff thinks that they will magically discover offence they are delusional.
I’ll be hearing posts clanging in my sleep tonight. Bounce back Monday boys.
Love Ingram’s compete level! Let’s reward him with overtime!!!
Bouchard turnstyled by Klapka! -).
Adam Klerpderp
A goalie who stays with a scramble…what a concept.
Well done #39
He has had a great game.
Any word on when Clattenberg comes off LTIR? I know he is raw but this team could use his physical play. Bottom 6 not scoring and not hitting.
I would think he heads straight to Bako.
There are four forwards down there that could help the middle six/bottom six and play more than 5-6 minutes.
Be nice if someone in bottom 6 could get tying goal. Calling Connor Brown!
Or Perry or Arvidsson
Again Bahl shows a complete lack of hockey knowledge.
Poking at that puck when he could’ve easily cleared the front out.
Would be an interesting player if he had a brain.
Couldn’t have landed on a better team.
BOOM!!! Connor wants to make a game of it!!!
After giving away the game with a giveaway and a lazy ass backtrack.
Weird take on his performance tonight, isolating on one shift when his line again held court but couldn’t cash
Do you want to win the Cup or not?
Trade him for Danault, I think he always back checks and hardly turns pucks over.
After 2 posts McD gets one.
🚨 🚨
Hyman willed that goal with hard work, both on the zone entry/forecheck and the net front battle.
Connor doing his best Hyman impression.
Another way lack of depth hurts. Knob has to overplay top guys who get gassed and wind up getting burned at end of long shift.
That’s on Knoblauch.
Too much of the loaded up line with a ton of time to go.
Yah was a factor, but shouldn’t have gotten to that. 14 didnt recognize danger and was easily checked on casual puck management
Turnover by McDavid at the offensive blue and Ekholm twisting in circles on the defend.
Samanski with a great power natural zone transition, enters zone, goes cross to Hutson on a great pass, a fake snap shot and pass to the top to the circles where Lepannen one-times it home.
Condors down 4-2.
Atro boy, Lepannen.
Games like this you miss having a Gazdic/Kostin on your roster.
Hyman busted his ass to get back on that odd man rush.
Shooting practice required for the boys. Got to hit the net with point blank chances
Frederic played 4:40 in first two periods. Zero hits and -1.
Yep. That can be replaced by Hutson or Howard.
If he’s not going to hit and be a physical presence then sit him. His best game was after the press box. Stick him in there for a week and see if he comes back motivated to do his damn job.
His legs aren’t allowing him to do his job. They need to pull him out and get his skating to an acceptable level.
If he were a rookie there’s no way they keep playing him and they would be investing in improving his stride and explosiveness
Savoie does indeed replace Roslovic on Drai’s line to start the 2nd.
And I daresay, that line has already looked better. A period too late, by my estimation
Just a bit off, tonight. Flamerz are working hard and we haven’t matched them yet. One period to go. Need some Jonesy energy, right about now. Ingram is doing his job. Zero to complain about since he’s taken the net.
How can you keep mangy on the roster after this game? He’s gotten worse every game. Weird to see zero confidence from a vet but there it is.
10 is still late to every party
Some obvious healthy scratches
Been a pretty decent game. Ingram playing real well. Oilers playing too much on the outside when in o zone. Would love to see pods shoot when he’s in the slot with time. He’s missed a few chances to shoot. Regula making usual one or two big giveaways per game. Stasney filling Kulak role and maybe even outplaying Kulak.
Well, the good news is they just need to show up in the 3rd period and they can win this. Swap Savoie and Roslovic because that 2nd line is getting owned and that is untenable.
Gosh I would like them to win 3 in a row before 2026
They listened to you
What do you know? 🙂
You can tell winning this game means more to the Flames.
Yep, classic team bounce back after being embarrassed. Playing a style Oilers don’t prefer
If only Stastney was right-handed.
Excellent defender.
Big boys can’t do it every night. Games like this expose Oilers lack of scoring depth. Why not call up Huston and give him a chance? I understand team’s played well lately but that doesn’t mean u can’t work in new player/s.
Time for Mangi to sit. Zero offence and taking too many penalties. Free up a roster spot.
👍 The ghosts of 10, 88, 19 aren’t going to provide the depth scoring required
Man. I just gotta turn the sound off. This duo is just not professional enough for HNIC
Canucks game gets Ferraro doing colour we get Kelly…..
Why is Kelly so sweaty? Looks like he’s hungover as hell.
No better on Oilers radio. Jack thinks Calgary is the best team in the history of hockey. Mute is the only option tonight.
Powerplay last two has gone back to pass it to McDavid and then watch him wheel. Everyone else way too stagnant
About every 10 games or so they need to insert new wrinkles. Likely most scouted PP in the league and they play the whole PP so lots of tape on them.
I thought 2 passed up a few bomb opportunities that may have opened up their other options
Coach needs to start fat shaming, wrong kind of heavy hockey.
Ha, how could Bahl question that x check?
Almost caved Savoi’s rib cage
Because they’ve gotten away with similar filth all game?
Oilers don’t seem too interested in making them pay tho…
Summarizing!
Lafreniere scored twice on the PP, giving him 24 on the year. A trio of assists gave him a 5-point night, along with a game-high +4. He was named 1st star for his efforts.
Lewandowski assisted on the only German goal in their loss.
Barnett was not a resoupient.
Been a while since I’ve seen a player with worse puck management and puck control than Mangiapane. Lucic comes to mind.
Yea those guys are hard to find. Better give them a NTC when you find one…..
Lucic was dreadful in his last couple of seasons with us
Dreadful
Great time for the TV timeout. Lets get this right this time, Flames need to think twice before being over-aggressive.
Bahl sure is a dumb hockey player.
Easy to lay a hard, clean hit there and he throws the crosscheck.
Zero excuses for a guy that big to be not using the body.
McDavid the only Oiler creating anything.
Bouchard just saved a clear SH breakaway with an amazing stick.
Drai seems to be taking a lot of abuse tonight. Time for another PPG!
Be nice if they called any of Klapka’s shots to the spine.
Stastney’s quickness very key on the PK.