We are out of the break and the Oilers have a chance to finish December with a flourish. There have been times in the past when this team plays poorly in this period of the season, but there’s some real daylight up above in the Pacific right now. Catch a wave and you’re sitting on top of the world.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: Wild, Kraken, Jets (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- At home to: Sabres, Red Wings (Expected 1-0-1) 1-0-1
- On the road to: TML, Canadiens, Penguins (Expected 2-1-0) 2-1-0
- On the road to: Bruins, Wild (Expected 1-1-0) 1-1-0
- At home to: VEG, Flames (Expected 1-0-1) 2-0-0
- On the road to: Flames, Jets (Expected 1-0-1)
- At home to: Bruins (Expected 1-0-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-3, 21 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 8-3-1, 17 points in 12 games
- Season Record: 19-13-6, 44 points in 38 games
In the last 10 games, Edmonton is 7-2-1 (15 points) and the Flames 6-4-0. The goal share shows a gap, 59 to 44 percent, with the expected goals less grand canyonesque (54 to 45 percent). Oilers should win this game, but the Flames are rarely an easy out.
I wanted to talk today about Andrew Mangiapane. He has been playing a more spirited game of late, and December has brought more success than the first two months of the season. I have no idea where or if he’ll be a regular during the postseason, but it’s worth looking at his splits over the pre-Christmas run. All numbers five-on-five
- Sept-Oct: 30 pct goal share, 48 pct expected (1.23 pts-60)
- December: 56 pct goal share, 55 pct expected (.90 pts-60)
Mangiapane isn’t scoring worth a tinker’s damn. He has had a little success with Leon Draisaitl (1.92 pts-60 in 94 minutes) and with Connor McDavid (1.64 pts-60 in 183 minutes). Those numbers aren’t going to keep Nuge away from McDavid nor Podkolzin from seeing the ice with Leon. He is scoring .5 pts-60 with Adam Henrique and that’s in a significant number of minutes (120).
The goal share has enjoyed an uptick in December. Coach Kris Knoblauch may have found a line that is shy scoring but not bleeding goals in their own end.
Mangiapane-Henrique-Janmark are not sexy, and really that’s okay. In 48 December minutes, they are 1-1 goals and 65 percent expected goals. I suspect the Oilers coaching staff will consider that a success compared to the first two months of the year.
How can the team tweak the line to get more scoring? Let’s start by asking how much time the Henrique line is spending on the ice, and what level of competition is greeting them? Here are the December numbers, via Puck IQ:
- Elites 32 mins, 32 pct DFF, -25 pct REL, 0-1 goals
- Mids: 50 mins, 56 pct DFF, 6 pct REL, 1-1 goals
- Softs: 54 minus, 56 pct DFF, -4 pct REL, 0-3 goals
McDavid and Draisaitl are over 40 percent versus elites, Henrique is getting faded (23 percent of his five-on-five ice time is versus elites) and Curtis Lazar is playing even less against the best. The Henrique line has been unlucky against the soft parade, but the rel number is underwater and that’s a concern.
I remember looking at Mangiapane’s last three seasons, before this one, because he was used in a far different manner in Washington compared to Calgary. Let’s run these numbers in the last three seasons, plus this one, to see what we can find. All numbers Puck IQ, and five-on-five.
The Puck IQ numbers show that Mangiapane is no longer able to bat successfully in the heart of the order. The Washington Capitals faded him, my guess is those 192 minutes versus elites came early in the year.
Caps coaches played Mangiapane 21 percent of the time against elites, 39 percent versus the middle and 40 percent versus the soft parade via Puck IQ. Oilers coaches are playing him 31 percent versus elites, 38 percent versus mid and 31 percent against the soft parade.
In December, Mangiapane has played just 18 percent versus elites. If a coach is gifting soft minutes, results need to come. Mangiapane’s December line is doing a good job in possession versus mid and the soft parade, but should be scoring more against those opponents.
What does it all mean? Stan Bowman can waive Mangiapane (thanks, Ira!) but he can’t wish him into the cornfield. Kris Knoblauch can limit his minutes, and that’s the next step if the Henrique trio can’t score more often. Time to get a wiggle on, perhaps Mangiapane will be inspired by playing in Calgary tonight.
Connor McDavid max speed by season (mph)
2021–22 | 24.14
2022–23 | 24.16
2023–24 | 24.19
2024–25 | 23.97
2025–26 | 24.61
At 28, McDavid has gained half a step.
How is that even possible?
Not that he doesn’t have enough to do, but can he run a power skating class for Frederic and Mangiapane?
What a legend!
Top line of Howard/Samanski/Hutson reunited.
Jarventie to play with Hamblin and Griffith, Majala with Pitlick and Poulin.
Tomkins starts.
Man it’s hard to evaluate a world juniors. Macklin Celebrini is in a very small tier of offensive players just behind McDavid and MacKinnon. Michael Misa is one year younger and was picked 2nd overall. How can he look like “just a guy” agains the Czechs and especially Latvia.
I feel like McDavid would score 17 goals against Latvia.
I agree with all of this. I think Misa is ok but not at celebrini level. I’d put Mkenna between the two. He has elite elite vision and IQ but right now is a step down from Celebrini’s compete.
From what I’ve seen from him at best-on-best small-sample-alert tourneys, McKenna could see a fall down the draft rankings we haven’t seen since Angelo Esposito.
I’m seeing that there are a lot of ‘really good, not great’ players out there in the U20’s these days, playing a homogenous, ‘small-ice’ game with lots of ticky-tacky play, akin to high-level soccer. No generational talents on display yet.
Why does Latvia play the trap like they’re the second coming of the 90s era Devils? They shouldn’t be this much of a problem, but here we are.
It’s refreshing listening to an announcer who (a) actually follows the play and (2) doesn’t get sidetracked telling human-interest stories about the opposition or chumming it up with his colour guy.
I miss TSN broadcasts covering EDM games. And not just the quality of their play by play delivery, their intermission shows are on another level compared to the “product” we’re blessed with since SN took over.
IMO Cuthbert and Miller are the gold standard of hockey announcers. Paul Romanuk was pretty good when he did the WJHC too back in the day.
Wholeheartedly agree. Add in some James Duthie between periods and you’ve got a guaranteed formula for an enjoyable broadcast.
If Jack and Louie were calling this game, praise for Latvia would be up about 300%
Ok, now it would be up 1000%
I’m putting my vote in for Jack and Louie. Unpopular opinion but I find jacks vocabulary uniquely interesting and I like the growl in his voice that comes out.
On a side note I wonder what it would take to get that Oreilly kid for team Canada. Would Howard plus a first do it?
O’Reilly plays a good game but I don’t think he’ll ever be in Howard’s tier of offence.
Ya. I agree. Just stirring the pot.
Probably not. Bowman’s bet there was probably the right one. It was said around the draft possibly a 3C, and a team should be able to find that outside the draft at a reasonable price. Not a first shot fast scorer though
Issac Howard led the goal medal winners in goals in this tournament last year, with 7 in 7 games
When Jack calls Oilers games, he’s calling like 70 of them with a largely similar audience. Of course he’s going to talk about the other team – do you want to hear him say the same things about the Oilers 70 nights a season?
Gord Miler has told me multiple times about SOR and Howard being traded for each other – and its only been 2 games.
You mean the same announcer that has provided me the same tidbits of information on the same players as he did yesterday (i.e. SOR drafted by the Oilers, traded for Issac Howard)?
Imagine if Jack provided that tidbit in all 70 games (apx) he calls.
Jack calls apx 70 Oilers game with, of course, largely a similar audience last night – he can’t just provide the same relevant Oilers tidbits game after game that Gord can get away with in a short tournament call. He has to do things like talk more about the opposition (which fans also bitch about), etc.
Its not the same type of call/job.
Gord Miller is awesome.
Gord M has a rare gift of speaking. Went to high school with him, and he hosted many of the school events. Was pretty quickly on TV out of school
Add me to the pile.
TSN much better.
I hope Freddy has rested those cement hands and taken plenty of vitamin bull, McDavid is a about to drop another extravaganza triggering the goons of cowtown to start their usual shit.
Someone needs to target Rasmus and stop him before his intent to seriously injure takes place.
19-2 Oilers, McDavid breaks some records.
I wasn’t really familiar with Mangiapane other than his rare games with the Flames against the Oilers. My previous impression was that he was a tenacious forechecker who could score timely goals, kind of like an early career Yamamoto.
From what I’ve seen this year, he rarely receives passes cleanly or he fumbles the puck quickly or the puck is just stolen by the defenders. With this lack of puck handling ability, the play dies on his stick 90% of the time. In the rare instances when he does have the puck under control for more than 2 seconds, it’s usually because the defender is lining him up for a hit, after which, Mangi loses the puck battle. I’ve seen little of the determined play, scoring or forechecking ability that he was signed for.
Until December, it looked like Mangiapane was getting more opportunities to line up with McDavid and Drai than warranted. I believe AM was getting a push because he was Bowman’s most expensive UFA signing and the coach wanted to salvage the boss’s ego on another bad contract. Kind of like how Coach Knob ran Arvidsson last season in the Top 6 longer than he should have trying to fit the square peg in the round holes.
Honestly, it just feels like Mangiapane is complacent. He’s got his millions and he’s not scared of losing his roster spot. He’s not playing desperate or hungry or engaged in the battle or imposing his will on anything.
You had me up to the last paragraph.
I’m leaning more towards the inevitable — and in this case, untimely — march to the cliff.
The old grey Mangi, ain’t what he used to be.
I think we all had the same game tape in our mind of what type of player we expected with Mangiapane. Your description tracks.
I agree that he got more opportunities with 29 and 97/than warranted, though also likely due to lack of options.
Some player types, especially pesky forecheckers rely on speed to get to the play. Mangiapane lost his half a step and I don’t think he can regain effectiveness. Aging and speed loss is most unkind to this player archetype.
Players who have aged well like Nuge and Hyman are still above 65th percentile in top speed—not to mention they’re cerebral players who read the play very well. Hyman is also a blue paint guy.
I think Mangiapane’s lack of speed shows up also in his goals against/60.
I think you have to decide and move on. Avoiding the sunk cost fallacy is the important next step.
I was most def fooled by my internal game tape. fooled!
Beat me to it. Exactly agree.
Give Mangi’s ice time to Howard, Hutson or Jarventi. He is doing very little to earn his pay or roster spot. Time to fish or cut bait.
That may/should come in due course but we are only 2.5 months in to the season and are at a natural re-set point before the half way mark.
If Mang (and Fred) continue to be all but completely ineffective and those 4 forwards continue to beat the door down…..
I always thought a player signs a NMC clause so he can control his own destiny no surprises kids in school yada yada but I starting to think the big reason is no minors. If a 15 goal scorer wants a NMC that bad then he’s has to sign at a reduced rate 15-20% I always seen Mangiapane as a relentless fore-checker. I’m not seeing that.
Yeah his make and take a pass are average at best. When you couple this with what seems pretty clear not high awareness in general (offensive or defensive) his on ice impact is a whole lot of reactionary events.
-> puck focused gets knocked off when/if he recieves cleanly (seems to do better with leading type passes then tape to tape variety)
-> skates into trouble very frequently then generally send puck into higher danger errors (not so much pass as mini dumps of the hopeful variety often to nobody or directly to other team)
-> he is pretty damn sneaky and adept at stealing puck
-> on side boards he’s decently effective but moreso almost when he’s second to the puck
-> end boards muacled off easily and again doesn’t really seem to know where anyone else might be going so basically useless in deep.
No anticipation all reactionary.
This unfortunately is a skill set that doesn’t age well. Slower skating and slower reactions as age sets in. Need higher hockey IQ to be longer lasting effective especially so on an undersized player.
Bought the cow that is no longer overly worth milking sort of deal. Whose decline curve slope quite likely a lot faster than larger specimen.
He may not be done completely but in order to succeed on the back half of his career he is going to have to really put in the work redefining his game IMO.
Nurse has cut down big time on the number of low danger shots from the point. He is actively looking to dish the puck into the dangerous areas. I’m assuming it’s something the coaching/video staff have been emphasizing. It is working out well.
Too late to attribute this uptick to Coffey, or do we have to credit Stewart?
Asking for a friend…
I feel like the early season was a big game of musical chairs, with so many combinations of wingers rotating through the top 6. I don’t think Mangi ever had a consistent line to play with. He still seems like a tenacious forward with some skill, but I think it was masked by having to adapt to a new team, new coach, new playstyle while getting constantly blenderized. To his misfortune, once the team started rolling, the music stopped with Mangi and Henrique on the same line and now they seem to be more or less glued together.
In my opinion, KK needs to be careful how he evaluates those who play with Henrique, as he seems to be the new Belanger triangle – the place where offense goes to die. I think Mangi can still be a useful middle 6 forward, but he is not a driver and needs better linemates to do well. If we can sort out the whole 1L-3C conundrum so that either RNH or “new guy” can play on the third line, then I think there is a chance he surprises.
Mangiapane has unfortunately been masked by losing half a step.
His max speed is 22.08 (53rd percentile) this season. Last year he was 22.54 (65th percentile).
Last year for Washington, he was already 10th in Ctoi vs elites, so basically playing 4rth line competition.
He has been moved around because he is bleeding goals against. He is currently at 3.78 goals against per sixty, which is a tragic number.
Scenario | TOI | GF/60 | GA/60 | GF% | xGF% | On-ice SV% | PDO
———————————|—–|——-|——-|——|——|————|—–
Mangiapane + Draisaitl (no McD) | 62.1| 3.86 | 3.86 | 50.0 | 56.13| 84.62 | 0.960
Mangiapane + McDavid (no Drai) |151.4| 2.77 | 3.96 | 41.18| 50.90| 85.92 | 0.962
McDavid + Mangiapane + Draisaitl | 31.6| 1.90 | 3.80 | 33.33| 55.62| 75.00 | 0.827
Mangiapane (no McD, no Drai) |231.4| 1.04 | 3.63 | 22.22| 46.91| 84.95 | 0.902
Yeah, I definitely agree that his results have been bad since getting here. I don’t know how to pull those numbers, but I imagine his time with McD and Drai came mostly during the start of the season, where the whole team was a tire fire and even McDavid was playing well below established levels. As LT points out, recent numbers are possibly showing some promise re: goal share, so maybe he is figuring some things out.
It is also very possible he is washed as a player – I would even say that is the likely scenario given his body of work so far. But I’d like to see him get a chance with some better players free of Henrique before spending more assets to get rid of him or buy him out.
This a great case study.
We can’t say that this was a case of lack of data, but one of misinterpretation of the available data.
Now, I don’t live in Edmonton and I don’t listen to 630 CHED or 880 or whatever it is now anymore, but I thought there were rumblings of the organization suspecting he was miscast or under-utilized in Washington from Stauffer.
Here is the PUCKIQ link for last season in Washington.
For the year prior to that in Calgary, here.
The Oilers appear to have thought it was plausible for Mangiapane to rebound to his Calgary form, where he was 0.7 mph faster in top speed.
Honestly, when they signed Mangi and our was being lauded(mostly) as being a good signing I was personally in WTF mode, even at his peak I’m not sure he would have moved the needle much. That being said, a lot of people around here like to make comparisons between Arvidsson/Skinner vs Mangi/Frederic, and IMHO, without the benefit of hindsight, I feel the first two were far better bets than the latter, especially when you factor in the NMC. Frederic especially scares me in the sense that I hope it’s not a sign that management might be headed into Coke Machine mode a bit again.
Surprised no one here has commented on the success of Will (son of Shawn) Horcoff.
Will is leading the NCAA with 19 goals in 20 games played for the University of Michigan Spartans.
The 6’5″ 205 centre, who scored a goal for team USA yesterday, seems like a natural replacement for the Penguins when Malkin retires at the end of the season.
Looks like the Penguins may have landed a steal drafting him 24th overall in 2025.
Glad for him he didn’t get his dad’s hands.
Dear old Dad scored only 14 goals in 42 GP in his final season at Michigan.
A good pre-draft analysis here:
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2025-nhl-draft-profile-will-horcoff-scouting-report-draft-combine-university-of-michigan
But you’re forgetting to penalize Will for having 8 of his goals on the PP.
I spoke of him here last season as a potential Draft target pre-Michigan, but then he made the move and blossomed, taking him completely out of range.
Good for him, his family & Pens fans.
However, there is nothing to see here Oilers-related.
Any post with Horcoff in it is Oiler related unless myopia is a thing.
Did Mangiapane have anytime with McDavid and Hyman?
I still think it would be best to spread the wealth among the three lines.
Mangi- McD- Hyman
Pod- Drai- Savoie
Howard- Nuge- Roslovic
Knoblauch will get here eventually
Not really. mangiapane mostly played with McDavid while Hyman was injured . The results were so poor, Knoblauch had to move him away from McDavid.
The trio has played 3:57 together only.
Mangiapane bleeds goals against when he plays in the top six.
I had mentioned at the 10 game mark that he was generating almost nothing while averaging only a shot/game.
And here we are…he has exactly 38 shots in 38 games while sporting a dreadful -16 which is very close to worst in the league.
That trio has played 4 minutes together and are 1-0 goals and hugely positive. At the same time McDavid/Mang has a ton of time together with very poor results – of course, McDavid was not near the top of his game for much of that.
In any event, I would NOT be in favour of touching that top line right now – I do have time to move Nuge off it at some point but definitely not right now and definitely not for a guy that one can argue should be closer to the press-box than the 1st line.
That would be like giving Freddie that game on the 2nd line before the press-box.
Per Stauff (seems like the same lineup):
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Roslovic
Mangiapane-Henrique-Savoie
Jones-Frederic-Janmark
Lazar
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Regula
Stastney-Emberson
Stillman
Ingram
Pickard
Sometimes I hate being on the East coast, 11pm is so far away! 🙂
With you on that. Live on central time, but am visiting family in the east tonight and it’s a bugger with another hour’s difference. Sleeping it off on the plane tomorrow.
While I hate waiting until 8pm, mountain time zone is the clear elite sports time zone in North America!
Yes, but it must be hard when the Oilers are playing in the eastern zone, especially if you have to work and the game starts beforehand.
Sorry, beforehand in the sense that the game starts before you finish work.
Yes, I used to hate that, in particular when I was a junior-mid level associate. I would tape the games and watch when they were over (pre-PVR).
I now lover early games – as a senior partner that generates all my own work, I am able to manage my work as I choose (within reason of course and, when a deal has a fire, the fire is the fire).
I’m sure there are many that have more real issues getting in front of the TV for a 5pm start.
Now imagine being in the Pacific with those games starting at 4….
It’s not that bad with being able to record games. I finish work at 4, just as those games start, and kind of like having some evening left after the game, although it does mess with the exercise and dinner routine. The best part though is not having to go to bed late for all the Pacific time zone games – when I lived in Ontario it really messed with my sleep, sometimes would fall asleep on the couch.
Exercise first thing in the morning – boom done!
Tony B confirms Ingram as the starter.
Very nice!
Sample size alert.
Oilers goalies.
| Player | SV% | HDSV% | GAA | GSAA/60 |
|—————-|——-|——-|—–|———|
| Connor Ingram | 0.938 | 0.833 | 1.32| 1.00 |
| Tristan Jarry | 0.904 | 0.800 | 2.32| 0.34 |
| Stuart Skinner | 0.892 | 0.772 | 2.54| 0.06 |
| Calvin Pickard | 0.877 | 0.712 | 3.41| -0.36 |
Season | GP | TOI | SV% | HDSV% | GSAA/60
———-|—-|——–|——-|——-|———
2022-23 | 27 | 1261.0 | 0.920 | 0.826 | +0.20
2023-24 | 50 | 2264.7 | 0.919 | 0.858 | +0.18
2024-25 | 22 | 990.0 | 0.902 | 0.826 | -0.29
Ingram has consistently been over .800 in HDSV%—an area In which Skinner has struggled since last year. Skinner’s HDSV% was .791 last year and .772 this year. He was .815 in 2023-4 and .844 in 2022-3.
We know our Oilers give up plenty of these chances on any given night.
I’m a huge fan of Ingram.
Also to add to this, since it is such a small sample size for Ingram, he’s faced the least amount of xGA per 60 minutes (2.805) compared to Jarry (3.18) and Picks (3.284). It’s important to see how he handles more pressure now that he has a couple NHL games under his belt.
| Player | Pos | GP | TOI | TOI/GP | G/60 | 1A/60 | Pts/60 |
|———————-|—–|—-|———|——–|——|——-|——–|
| Quinn Hutson | R | 3 | 22.70 | 7.57 | 2.64 | 0.00 | 2.64 |
| Connor McDavid | C | 38 | 641.08 | 16.87 | 1.03 | 0.84 | 2.43 |
| Leon Draisaitl | C | 38 | 620.77 | 16.34 | 0.68 | 1.26 | 2.32 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | C | 29 | 377.75 | 13.03 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 1.91 |
| Jack Roslovic | C | 25 | 380.88 | 15.24 | 0.95 | 0.32 | 1.89 |
| Zach Hyman | L | 19 | 290.20 | 15.27 | 1.03 | 0.41 | 1.86 |
| Vasily Podkolzin | R | 38 | 531.85 | 14.00 | 1.02 | 0.56 | 1.81 |
| Kasperi Kapanen | R | 6 | 71.12 | 11.85 | 0.00 | 1.69 | 1.69 |
| Connor Clattenburg | C | 5 | 35.48 | 7.10 | 1.69 | 0.00 | 1.69 |
| Max Jones | L | 5 | 37.48 | 7.50 | 0.00 | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Noah Philp | C | 15 | 140.73 | 9.38 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 1.28 |
| Mattias Janmark | C | 22 | 241.35 | 10.97 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1.24 |
| Isaac Howard | L | 17 | 152.25 | 8.96 | 0.79 | 0.39 | 1.18 |
| Andrew Mangiapane | L | 38 | 476.53 | 12.54 | 0.50 | 0.38 | 1.13 |
| David Tomasek | R | 22 | 195.50 | 8.89 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Matt Savoie | C | 38 | 449.00 | 11.82 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Curtis Lazar | C | 19 | 159.57 | 8.40 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Adam Henrique | C | 38 | 437.42 | 11.51 | 0.14 | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| Trent Frederic | C | 37 | 409.10 | 11.06 | 0.29 | 0.15 | 0.44 |
We have moved out one of the players from the under a point per hour club at 5v5. Frederic has sat a game.
If Rico would waive his NMC, that would unlock a lot of possibilities for improving the bottom six.
Ryan. I really appreciate the numbers and research you bring here. Thank you, also I find most of your comments bang on. 90% of the time I agree with your perspectives. The other 10% you’re wrong.
😆
Thanks. The 10% of time where people have dissenting opinions is the best part. That’s where ideas get refined and discussions move forward.
Xavier Bourgault expected to make his NHL debut tonight:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/senators-recall-forward-xavier-bourgault-defenceman-dennis-gilbert-from-ahl/
While Jarventie gets all marinated up for exactly what nobody knows.
Reason being the team is 8-2-1 in their last eleven games.
I can make arguments for each of Samanski, Jarventie, Howard and Hutson to get games but there is also the clear argument that the team is rolling and they still have Kap to be activated soon along with Philp (potential waivers) and Clatt (sure AHL assignment).
I’d love one of those kids over Max Jones but not in the 4th line and Max is playing his role nicely in the last bit.
I would tell Samanski you have a good chance of playing the 1st game after the Olympic break. This would be the perfect time while this kid is on a high to test drive him for 3-5 games especially since we’re on the West Coast.
I have also suggested Samanski post-break but, of course, we’ll see where the player is and where the team is at the time.
Its probably unlikely.
Pleased for him. Hope he does well.
Good for him. Wish him all the best
”Don’t draft goalies in the first round, they take 5 years” while most players take 5 years.
If Bowman can somehow make the Henrique line the fourth line, we’ll be in pretty good shape.
Tuch Mcdavid Hyman
Podz Draisaitl Savoie
Howard RNH Roslovic
Mangy Henrique Janmark
I really don’t see Nuge becoming the 3rd line Cman. That top line is a great one. McDavid even commented how much he likes playing with those 2.
I’ve been the conductor aboard the Tuch Train around here for quite some time, but I don’t see how we manage to fit him on the roster without sending away Henrique, or both Mangiapane and Janmark to make the money work.
Trade protection, distressed asset value, and bloated AAVs are really impacting those contracts from being any kind of real bargaining chip in potential negotiations.
Howard would make a good sweetner with Mangiapane or Henrique. Not using Howard anyhow might as well trade him while he still has value. The threat of press boxing a player does have value when it come to NMC or limited NMC
LOL- Howard is a rookie pro 2 months in to the first year of his 3 year ELC and the organization is developing him the proper way.
He will not be used as “a sweetener” and he is not losing any value in real time.
“Catch a wave and you’re sitting on top of the world.”
Beach Boys! Used to have a greatest hits compilation on 8-track.
I Remeber my Beach Boy’s cassette along with my Jan and Dean tape. Truth be told I listened to the former more, not sure why.
Wonder who gets the start in goal. I would start Ingram. They may as well run the hot goalie ( 2-0) in hopes they see as much consistent play as they can get in the crease.
It will be interesting to see what kind of game we see tonight.
Will Calgary come out and try to goon the Oilers? The 3rd period the other night got quite chippy.
Hopefully the Oilers come out and play the same game as the other night in Edmonton.
Calgary would be wise to come out and play hockey and not try and goon it up and give the Oilers a lot of pp’s.
Yes the 3rd line isn’t leaking goals against, but the Oilers do need to get a legite 3rd line c man, and looking at articles and listening to some of the talking heads it is sounding that the Oil may be leaning more to a 3rd line Cman than a goalie or top 6 winger.
The newest name to emerge in rumour mill is Jarred McCann. Seattle was trying to move him last year ( rumours were out to that) but no one came up with a package for him. McCann would be a great get for sure . No clue what the cost would be, but for sure Seattle Would be asking for more pieces if they are to eat. A 1st ( next year) would be gone for sure but who else. Nice thing with McCann is he has one more year left and that seems to be Bowman’s type of trade to go for while giving up a 1st and or prospects.
3rd line C men that are UFA’s.
Coyle Columbus ( Columbus is 6 points out and not playing great, could be sellers)
Boone Jenner ( Columbus) with 2 UFA C men they could move 1 for sure
Pageau NYI , his name was mentioned as a possible
Dickenson ( Chicago)
Lafferty ( Chicago)
Nick Schmatlz ( Utah)
Be interesting to see who Bowman pursues and how they make it work and what they give up
I see that as shopping in the Henrique Mangiapane Janmark aisle. None of those players have unrealized upside. Safe plug and play options for sure.
I prefer more of a different look.
Bobby Mcmann sillenger savoie
Fredrick Samanski Kappy
Henrique
However cap and player movement gymnastics make it very unlikely.
You’re probably closer to reality though.
Bowman can waive Mangiapane – I believe he has a partial no trade clause, not a no movement clause (held by each for Fred and Rico).
Full NTC this year and modified next year .
Full NTC does not prohibit waivers (only a NMC) so, confirmed, he can be waived.
Never said it did
I know, I was just confirm my original statement.
Assuming he is not claimed, what is the advantage of parking him in Bakersfield?
That has nothing to do with my post – my post was responding to the blog which originally stated that Many cannot be waived – he can.
I don’t think they will be, the “advantage” would be $1.15MM of cap space – obviously.
Well, the potential to send him to Bakersfield could be used as leverage to get him to allow a trade. Moving the Mangiapane contract would be expensive as there is a year left on it.
Yeah…the NYR gambit might work.
I would imagine the list of potential trade destinations would be very short.
Yes, it’s a full NTC until June 15/26, then a modified NTC (5 team list) from June 16/26 to June 30/27. Andrew Mangiapane Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats | Puckpedia
However, I don’t think Bowman will want to waive him. I think he gets more of a chance to prove his worth.
I don’t think he’ll waive him either and I do agree with LT that his game is a bit better – he we was awful 2-way early, just leaking.
He seemed to get a little more intense with his game right around when Frederick got a game in the press box ..It may have caught his attention .
We may have that third line centre in house. Poulin came over with Jarry and is on the Condors .He is a 6.2 inch 215 pound centre with good wheels and has 22 points in 26 games .. A player to watch
I agree we may have an in house solution but more likely Samanski. Based on OP reports Poulin has been underwhelming although that certainly could change with more time in the organization. I like his took kit.
Samanski or Poulin. Either one of them if they continue to progress could be a huge win for SB.
Both have the tools and are young and cheap .
Ha – just posted exactly this without seeing your post.
Correct (in my opinion).
Poulin was good his first game as a Condor and has underwhelmed completely since – for me, showing why, despite putting up points, he can’t get to the NHL. His commitment to 2-way play has been poor.
Poulin has not played center as a Condor.
I would MUCH rather see Samanski get that call-up for that role.
Just checked and Poulin is – 4 in four games with two assists ( could have been – 6 ) supports your opinion .
Those two assists both game in his first game.
They should waive him. What’s the worst that can happen? He gets claimed? He asks for a trade?
Agreed. Off with his head!!!
I hope Ingram gets the start again tonight on the continuing premise of determining where he is at and where he might get to.
Starting him last game was a clear indication the org is looking for that info so here is hoping it continues.
I can see Knob giving Pick the start in the premise of “don’t want him to get stale” but he’s already stale and 2 more days won’t make a difference.
Also looking to see if Jones and Fred can continue to bring some impact on that 4th line and at least one depth goal tonight!
I think it’s wiser to get Ingram in a rhythm then to worry about a lifetime at best back-up getting stale
Let’s assume that Ingram starts tonight. When would we realistically see Pickard again?
Agree that it’s imperative to get Ingram into a rythm. We have to see what we have with this player (we know what we have with Pickard).
But assuming (always dicey with the vagueness of the coach with injuries) that Jarry is out until at least mid-January, where do you spot Pickard over the next 3 weeks?
Monday for Pick.
I play it by ear if Ingram gets shellacked tonight I come back with Pickard. I’ve always been ride a goalie until he loses mentality unless it’s back-to-back games. They need to see what they have in Ingram. If Ingram continues to return to form I can handle him and Jarry for around 7M for the next 3 playoff runs
Should Wolf get the start for the flames? He lost last game.
I would go with Cooley myself.
Prospectitian!
Neither Barnett nor Lewandowski found the scoresheet at the WJHC yesterday, but they both get another crack today. The US&A battles Switzerland whilst Germany faces Slovakia.
Above the 49th, Lafreniere and the Blazers return to action.
Germany (Lewandowski) @ 12 p.m.
USA (Barnett) @ 4 p.m.
Kamloops (Lafreniere) @ 7 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Mulhurst Bay time.
I have a place about 10 km from Mulhurst Bay!
Overall Mangiapane is at 50% xG share. He has never posted a negative xG share in his career.
Henrique, on the other hand, has only posted two positive xG shares in the last 10 seasons.and hadn’t had positive DFF% vs elites in five seasons.
Looking at ugly numbers in the bottom six it’s Henrique who stands out season after season.
Probably why Stan asked him to waive. It sure seems like they have analytics that they use
Is this confirmed? Where did you hear Stan had asked him to waive? If Rico would waive, that would unlock a lot of improvement possibilities.
Pretty sure it was last year leading up to the deadline, Bowman asked some of the NMC players according to reports (obviously not officially confirmed). If memory serves, word was Nurse agreed and Rico dug in.
Friedman reported in the off-season that management had approached essentially all their guys with clauses to gain their thoughts on potentially being moved.
Henrique all but confirmed as one of them and zero interest in waiving.
There is some thought Nurse was not approached.
Friedman didn’t “name names”.
Thanks for the added context.
It was my understanding that the Oilers expanded their analytics team. With that, I assumed they would be more efficient and effective when signing free agent forwards and giving extensions. But it’s the same old same old. Mang, Frederic, Arvidsson, Skinner…
Dude… the new mantra here is forgiveness:
https://lowetide.ca/2025/12/25/merry-christmas-2/
Flames (*spits) on the other hand… my heart is full of hate! Destroy them!
Famous names all acquired 2+ years after peak seasons and awarded multi year (except Skinner) contracts with NMC
They do have a strong analytics team and the Arvidsson/Skinner signings were definitely analytics friendly based on their even strength scoring. I think what they struggle with is finding guys who will complement our stars and also be able to produce and stay engaged without PP time. And also develop chemistry and produce immediately otherwise Knoblauch puts the lines in a blender and they may never see the top 6 again.
I don’t think Mangiapane or Frederic have had good analytics in a year or two so im guessing they were hoping for a bounce back from these two but it looks like they might just be past their prime. Also there is no way the analytics team would have supported a long term deal for Frederic.
Good points. Those that don’t work out for the oilers seem better when gone. I think it’s more about finding players that fit how they want to play. I’m still not sure that will happen, there seems to be some sort of disconnect. Most teams have a lot of players like the Oilers bottom 6 and seem to do better even if not great
A while back I thought it might be that the D the bottom 6 were playing with most weren’t helping getting the puck up the ice, but that’s not the case the last two seasons, and there was no McLeod to skate it up
The bottom forwards spend a lot of time watching Connor and Leon play, but unless they get really lucky and can stack a third line they can’t and shouldn’t try to emulate. They have to play basic NHL hockey and hold the puck in the O zone, get traffic, screen and tip etc. Are the coaches training the team to play two different styles? Because the top 6 doesn’t do that consistently
But the way things have gone they don’t have much wiggle room with time
Yep. The analysis pointed to all of those Gus being contributors when they were signed, but the Oilers are a tough team to play on. 97 & 29 are so good, eat so many minutes & are actually not easy to play with, which makes chemistry a bigger deal than it should be.
That’s why a Yamamoto or Podkolzin works so well with 29, but fail elsewhere, or why time after time 93 gets elevated to 97s line bc outside of him & Hyman, most wingers don’t seem to gell with him. It’s an under discussed challenge, when most think a fire hydrant would get 20 points off 97, but in reality he’s gone through a lot of wingers without success prior to Hyman.
This is a very valid point. Not dissimilar to the Sedins who only had a few wingers truly fit and none for very long that I can recall
If anything, Mangiapane could have been an “analytics” signing – he’s had glowingly positive possession an goals share/expected goal share stats his entire career even while his production cratered