The Oilers rolled last night, delivering the kind of game that is highly entertaining and promises a better tomorrow. If the turnovers at the blueline were taken away, I would be heralding this group as having a real chance in the spring. Alas, the discipline isn’t there and a couple of those turnovers should have resulted in goals for the Preds. Take the two points, try to figure out why taking care of the puck is so difficult for this group, and celebrate the lack of stretch passes in the game against Nashville. This train is bound for glory or heartbreak. Same as it ever was.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: Flyers, Preds (Expected 1-0-1) 1-1-0
- On the road to: Jets (Expected 1-0-0)
- At home to: Kings (Expected 1-0-0)
- On the road to: Blackhawks, Preds (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: NYI (Expected 0-0-1)
- On the road to: Canucks (Expected 1-0-0)
- At home to: Blues, Devils, Penguins, Caps (Expected 2-1-1)
- At home to: Ducks, Sharks, Wild (Expected 1-1-1)
- Expected Record: 8-3-4, 20 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 1-1-0
- Season Record: 21-16-6, 48 points in 43 games
By Game 50, this Oilers group should be around 60 points. That would put them in the conversation for the division title and on a trajectory for 100 points. It’s been a tough year, but things are coming into view. Last night was encouraging on several levels.
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman 13:43, 10-6 shots, 1-0 goals, 45X, 5-2 HDSC
- Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen 12:55, 8-13 shots, 2-2 goals, 39X, 4-2 HDSC
- Howard-Roslovic-Savoie 5:52, 6-0 shots, 100X, 2-0 HDSC
- Janmark-Lazar-Roslovic 4:07, 2-1 shots, 45X, 0-1 HDSC
The expected goals for the McDavid line feels wonky, but I’m willing to endorse the top three lines. I do not think Roslovic is a classic solution for the No. 3 center question, but am more than willing to ride that line until there’s some reason to fade it. Finally, Kapanen has been a better player since the 2025 postseason and showed well last night with a goal and an assist. Music! McDavid’s first goal was electric, his penalty shot silly good and the third goal was lovely, too. The best of the best. Leon Draisiatl is Johnny Cash against the Predators, absolute money.
- Ekholm-Bouchard 18:28, 10-6 shots, 2-0 goals, 74X, 6-1 HDSC !!!!
- Nurse-Regula 14:52, 10-10 shots, 0-2 goals, 32X, 1-3 HDSC
- Stastney-Emberson 11:00, 6-4 shots, 2-0 goals, 73X, 4-3 HDSC
- Connor Ingram 24 of 26, .923
Ekholm-Bouchard were brilliant on the night, and the third pairing of Stastney-Emberson were also rock solid. I hate to pick on one player, but Alec Regula was not good and a game like last night makes one regret losing Troy Stecher on waivers. Hurry back, Jake Walman! Regula will be better, but my goodness he had a tough game. Connor Ingram had a nice game to my eye, he is making his case and doing it well.
There’s real promise here, and it comes as the team finally embraces some of the youth and fades Andrew Mangiapane and Trent Frederic. Took long enough. The Adam Henrique injury is unfortunate, you never wish for injury to any player. It does give Curtis Lazar a chance to show what he can do, and I do believe this could be a turning point. Man, Savoie and Howard looked good late.
CONDORS
The Oilers should call Quinn Hutson up soon, I’ll guess the Andrew Mangiapane trade will make room for him. He is too good for the AHL and I do believe Stan Bowman got someone. I’m fully aware of the July 1 signings, but have to say that the European and college signings that landed in Bakersfield have given this franchise a complete remake/remodel. Well done, Mr. Bowman. Roby Jarventie and Josh Samanski are the next recall forwards on my list, although Connor Clattenburg may also get the call.
You couldn’t find a better set of player cards if you placed them personally. Beau Akey and Damien Carfagna are the most promising young players on the list, and they are the top blue by even strength goal share. That’s such a welcome development for a team that badly needs depth at the position. I pray they don’t trade him but am fully award that could happen.
Matt Tomkins is coming on now, he’s edging closer to a .900SP with each passing game. Connor Ungar is enjoying a strong start with the Condors, and has a nice resume. I don’t believe the Oilers have him on their recall radar. He is only 6 feet tall and the Oilers like big goalies. We’ll see. I’m cheering for him.
Kevin McCurdy will be our feature guest on the Lowdown today. I want to talk about the transition from Henrique, Frederic and Mangiapane to the younger set, and why the general manager should keep his powder dry on July 1 (and maybe the deadline). Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube. See you on the radio!
Kasperi Kapanen, welcome back!
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6943971/2026/01/07/oilers-kasperi-kapanen-lineup-stats/
Kapanen has always had 2nd line talent and ability, but consistancy and motivation and clarity of purpose has always been the issue.
Which is why he can always find/win a job in the NHL, but has struggled to keep a job.
The 15-20 goal comment by Knoblauch imo was a carrot of confidence for Kapanen. Coach may see a player maturing behind the scenes with legit NHL capabilities and is trying to coach the player into being a consistent professional.
If so, well done coach.
You’ve made me realize I am the Kasperi Kapanen of my field. Thanks.
These Oilers, as a team, this season so far, too often: “talent and ability, but consistancy and motivation and clarity of purpose has always been the issue.”
The lady, who rarely watches, sat with me for a good chunk of last nights game and said it pretty succintly.
“So when they want to score, they can?”
Yup
Or: When they want to defend (with puck possession/management), they can. When they don’t want to (when goalie shutout or SV% or career isn’t important) —whoops! Two goals against.
I’ll be sure to relay that to her.
Thanks. Appreciated
Ungar with the W in a 3-1 win.
He is now 4-0 1.73 0.943
The man is on a ROLL!
He is the only goaltender in the Oilers organization that has a save percentage over 0.900.
As I mentioned a while ago, this is the most intriguing goaltending results of any Oilers pro prospect in the team’s history.
Keep it up kid!!
Correction 1.71 0.944 ->THIS is his save percentage for ALL 4 teams he’s played for this season, and he played for a couple of awful ECHL teams….
Also note, no other AHL or NHL goaltender in the organization has a GAA under 3.00.
Whenever I see Tyler Imamoto, I just can’t stop thinking is this really Kailer Yamamoto in disguise?
https://youtu.be/quxW1V8Hwlg?si=1BaSXq5W3ViPB3CA
Imamoto, who is 6’2”, played at Wisconsin with Holloway and Emberson, I watched all their games in Holloway’s sophomore season. Him and Emberson were the top Dmen for the Badgers…o, not a disguise 😀
FWIW for me, his name has been part of the player index in my memory banks. One my favourite things as a hockey fan is to discover the threads that link players together that I am not aware of.
Clattenurg hasn’t returned since the fight.
They’ve said it was for repairs on his hand but that fight was a long time ago now and he hasn’t come out for the 2nd period.
Marjala with the PP zone entry, dishes left to Jarventie, beautiful pass to the middle for Hutson, a stride, a laser and his 22nd goal for the 3-0 lead.
I believe he leads the AHL in goals now.
Clattenburg with a dirty open ice hit at the blue line – Canuck d-man didn’t have the puck, it was high and it was a blind-side and there may have been an elbow.
Ryan Holt with the “that’s a clean hit, its a blind side but its clean” but it was very much not clean.
In any event, fight ensures – decent tilt, light decision to the Canuck player.
I believe that’s fight 8 and, after two more, he gets suspended for every fight.
ugh.
Do AHL suspensions transfer to NHL?
Akey with a strong zone entry, dishes to Jarventie, shoots the gab and tips the Jarventie’s pass on net – Samanski buries the rebound.
2-0
Beau Akey – what you are seeing is a pop….
They are giving the 2nd assist to Hutson but, if you see that, ignore it – it will be changed (or should be), 100% Jarventie.
Two impressive highlights by Akey. The post new year ahl rookie jump is real!
Condors with their patented strong forecheck cause a poor breakout, its turned over at the blue line, Griffith to Marjala who makes a strong move to the next, good pad save, Akey buries the rebound on a wrister from the high slot. 1-0.
AHL scoring it unassisted robbing Marjala of a legit assist.
Ungar starts.
Petrov out hurt
Leppanen out injured]
Prokop out injured
Hamblin out sick
Brown out sick
Jones with a LBI a game-time decision
Sounds like half the team is sick – Samanski included (but he’s playing).
Listening to LeBrun interview and him mentioning how tight the Olympics are on the ice. Could this be the thing that finally buys the Duo in to being better at that style of game? I sure hope so
I wonder what the injury is to Henrique. If they can somehow keep him on LTIR for the rest of the season, could be a huge advantage for the playoffs.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Two weeks after the ECHL strike settled, PHPA & AHL reach a new CBA without a stoppage. Still must be voted on by league and players, but expected to get done.
Some details:
*Increases to AHL playoff pool, per diem & minimum salaries
*Veteran spots per game go from 5 and one additional exemption to 6 (more of a language change)
*Leaguewide limit of 65 three-games-in-three-days situations
*4-game suspensions and below adjudicated by Commissioner. 5 and above to Commissioner and, if necessary, arbitrator.
*Introduction of an AHL-only one-year entry-level contract, with possibility of additional one-year qualifying offer
*AHL contract buyout system similar to NHL’s (one-third under age 26, two-thirds 26 or older)
*Creation of AHL/PHPA player assistance program modelled on NHL/NHLPA version
Rico on IR and out until after the Olympic break – per Spec.
This COULD allow them to kick the big roster decisions needed to activate Walman/Jarry down the road by putting Rico on LTIR but the org likely wants to get out of LTIR before the Olympics – accrual includes Olympic days. Still need that Mang trade!
Henrique to IR, expected back after Olympic break.
Knock Knock! Savoie gets his opportunity to prove his mettle as a 3C with Howard the Duck and Roslo as his wingers.
Such a strange song for Blue Rodeo. I’d think most people would never know it’s them if they heard it for the first time. I’ve seen the band a handful of times but never recall them playing it.
I was at the folk festival in Calgary in the early 2000s or late 90s the band was literally just hanging out with the crowd before the show. They walked right up to the stage and started playing. No fancy entrance or hiding back stage. Just regular guys having a beer to playing the show. So cool. I was a teenager and absolutely star struck. There was an aura around Jim. Great memory.
I seen them perform at the Mayfield Inn. I think it in 1994. Seeing and listening to them in such a small setting was quite memorable.
I’ve seen them twice and both times were outstanding. Cuddy and that other dude have very different styles and seem to have a Lennon Mccartney type dynamic.
I was working at Q100 Victoria and the booking agent for the Strathcona Hotel was trying to get them to play at their club in around 1989. They said they couldn’t leave their day jobs, think they were posties, in Toronto and they declined his offer. God Bless them!
I remember walking home late past Andantes seeing the sign with their name and deciding I’d ‘had enough’ I didn’t take they were a rock band. Oops
Ingram has looked alright he’s not flashy but he’s steady. I do think he has good rebound control and once he’s settled in he’s good at moving the puck. I think Bownan will commit for 2 years in the 2.5 range per year.
CANADIANS
EUROPEANS
JACK & THE KIDS
PLUG ROTATION
Is Trent Frederic the worst regular forward in the NHL? Factoring in guys over 275 minutes and just the last 30 games to remove 97/29 soon time it’s an interesting battle.
Guys in his pathetic tier are Rodrigo Abols, Paul Cotter and Colton Dach. Complete black holes.
Others work their way into the race by being terrible offensively (but a level up from these stuffs) but also dreadful defensively. For example, Freddie Gaudreau has been on for 101 scoring chances for but 187 against!
Ty Dellandrea 113/208 and also 7-21 goals for-against!
A good chance none of these guys are in the NHL soon…except for the 8 with the 8 year deal.
If possible I’d sit Fredrick till after the Olympics. Let him know that’s the timeline Call it an investment not a punishment. Get him whatever help he needs. Give him time for strength training, mental coaching ect.
A healthy Boston Fredrick can be a big deadline addition.
Bring up Samanski. Give him two solid wingers.(Podz/ Ros)
I never want to see Frederic in an Oilers jersey again.
I certainly don’t want to see him sewer one of our most promising young players, nor saddle Roslovic with his dead weight, when we’re (likely) trying to get that guy to sign an extension.
I’m not buying the “he’s still injured” idea, unless of course his injury somehow led to him developing a condition characterized by a complete lack of heart and guts. He can’t shoot, he can’t skate, he has no offensive instinct, and he doesn’t know how to or doesn’t care to defend his own zone.
He’s either completely cooked, or he’s such a bad fit in Edmonton for whatever reason that it’s irreconcilable.
It’s not a coincidence that our bottom 6 started to player better when he (and Mangiapane) got sent to the pressbox.
The only thing KK should do, is sit him in the pressbox until he agrees to waive his NMC, then trade him to whichever GM thinks they can fix whatever the problem is between his ears.
If there are no takers, then buy him out in the summer.
And stop trading for/signing former-Bruin coke machines.
Average foot speed in last year’s playoffs was 34.87. Frederic’s top end was 35.94 kph on May 27 versus Dallas Stars. That was the only game he was faster than average. Slowest? 32.26 April 29 versus LAK.
He wasn’t right.
Average foot speed in this year’s regular season is 35.45. Frederic has yet to exceed that number, but has one game where his max foot speed was 34.96, November 20 versusTampa Bay. Lowest was 33.34 versus St. Louis Blues November 3.
He isn’t right.
I understand the anger, but don’t buy the ‘no guts’ angle. We will see as this rolls out, because eight years is a long, long time.
You can keep hanging your hat on this one very thin argument LT, while ignoring all other statistical information that he has been one of if not the worst forwards in the NHL this season, and that the team performs better without him in the lineup but I’m not buying it.
Losing 1-2 km off your top end speed does NOT mean you forget how to shoot and pass the puck, hit a player or grind out it in the corners.
He was injured over a year ago – a high ankle sprain (which is just deep tissue injury of ligments) – does NOT take over a year to heal. KK even alluded to the fact that there is no lingering injury issue … and KK is usually completely non-transparent about injury status.
The only problem with speed that he has, is a problem with processing speed.
He’s cooked, and he will not last 8 years in Edmonton. If there are no takers for his contract (and let’s face it, there is always at least one other GM in the league who thinks they can fix a coke machine), then he will be bought out this summer.
Keep him in the pressbox indefinitely until he waives his NMC; the Oilers need to start playing more consistently and winning games, and Frederic is a detriment to that.
He needs to do more, defensively he’s doing decently – not getting lit up. Saying that high ankle sprains have a timeline isn’t what former NHLers say about them. I’ll note that Bowman once Mangi is moved will have removed the two who actually had the worst numbers
Let’s say for argument that he’s got a lingering issue related to the high ankle sprain, where he’s only at 90% of his peak physical condition, but is able to play without pain (he certainly doesn’t look like he’s labouring). Let’s also say that if it was worse than that, the team’s medical staff would have had him on LTIR a long time ago,
I find it extremely unlikely that this issue has become such a detriment to his on ice ability that he’s become one of the five worst forwards in the NHL … in medicine, we say that the degree of disability is disproportionate to the actual injury. And when there is not a clear physiological reason, then more often than not, the underlying problem is mental/emotional well-being.
He’s not performing to the expectations of the contract that was signed this summer. He’s a complete liability to the teams ability to win hockey games. Whatever the issue is, it’s becoming very clear that Frederic and Oilers are not a fit.
He’s had a couple of “resets”.
It’s time for players who are more deserving of the opportunity to play his minutes.
Hockey players are infamous for playing “hurt”. “Hurt” is commensurable to injury among members of the laity. High ankle sprains make generation of force in any sort of stride (skating, skiing, running) very difficult and very painful.
The impact of high ankle sprains on performance can last long after healing has occurred (I realize that as someone from a medical background you are aware of this). I know of athletes who never returned to normal from such sprains, and others that took roughly two years before getting back to baseline. There is variation case by case.
Everything one does in hockey is contingent on skating. Compromised skating impacts every facet of game performance. I think Mr. Tide’s argument is not that thin. :). My acceptance of his argument is mostly based on the fact that I can’t believe that Frederic just suddenly got so bad at hockey. Injury is a common culprit when performance drops off a cliff.
I forgot to add, Frederic has not done well, and like you I have been very frustrated by his performance.
Frederic re-tweaked the injury early April. So it hasn’t been a year. And I’m not sure we can take every human’s recovery from an injury and say ‘it doesn’t take a year’ to recover. I’m not arguing the results, they are clearly poor. I am suggesting we have eight years to see how this turns out. If I’m right, he will deliver quality seasons in those eight years. This is not one of them, should they occur. I do believe examining all evidence is the wise choice.
That first shift as an Oiler was a thing of beauty. Until it wasn’t.
I was sold. Now, waiting for that player to be there, again. Hoping it’s in time for April 2026.
I think you all should prepare yourself to see Frederic in the lineup tomorrow lining up with Lazar and Janmark.
As much as there can be fan cries for “send him home until he waives”, the org is not moving on from this commitment at this time and isn’t working to sour the relationship.
The player has a better game – he’s not “washed” all of a sudden at 27 unless the injury will simply never heal which is not likely.
It’s unlikely but my hope is his start climb to regaining old form starts tomorrow. Go Fred!
Sorry – I misread your post; thought you were implying putting Frederic with Samanski or Roslovic.
A grinder like Podz with Samanski, together with shooter (Howard or Roslovic) would be ideal.
No worries.
Said this a month ago. Quit putting him in the lineup!
Do what you have to do away fron the team to get him back to expected levels
Frederic since Nov 20
SCF 62-79
HDCF 27-28
HDGF 1-2
Leon
SCF 147-171
HDCF 65-68
HDGF 13-12
It should be taken into account that there are lots of guys not getting things done. At least Fred is not getting Dellandrea’d defensively
His most common centre is Henri, who is sinking all, a little over 94 min and 1-4 Goals. Next is Connor at 29 min, 0-0, SF% 70.4, CF% 69.4
He needs to play better, but he’s not get shelled. Like Mangi was. I agree with Strudwick that he at least should focus on getting some hits and work his way up from there. Do something
I hope I am wrong about him as a player and that he is still indeed injured.
An entire playoff run and half a season is a long time for something “not to be right”. I suspected during the playoffs that he was in fact healthy, but just not a good NHLer. Nothing I’ve seen this season changes that opinion.
I still hold out hope for a revival but when news broke about that contract, I thought to myself that the window is closed and McDavid will not win here. Absolutely shocked by that contract. We play hard ball and lose two valuable assets over 4.58 and 2.29 AAV. Then we turn around and give that money away like it’s Halloween candy. Here ya go Freddy x8. Unbelievable.
It is January in Oiler country, so let’s talk 4th line and 3rd pairing defense.
We need a 4th line with an identity-
one that is fast, hard forechecking, the body and play doesn’t get scored on.
LW Jones
C Fredrick
RW Kapanen
We need a 3rd pairing that can play all defensive zone face off and be a significant part of the PK
LHD Stantsny
RHD Regula
#10 does not do what you’re hoping.
Clattenburg makes things happen look no further than Lomberg who’s carving out more than a decade in the NHL.
Given results on the ice, the 4C should be Lazar.
Unless (until?) Kap falls off he stays with 29.
Savoie and Janitor round out the 4th line. Would not be opposed to giving Janmark a few games off to insert Clattenburg.
Hard pass on Stanley. Big yes, slow, definitely. As in, really slow.
I was seeing rumours of Mangiapane (3.6 this year and next) for Ryan Strome (5 this year and next).
I have not been watching Strome, but something seems way off. He has worse value to me at 5/season than Mangiapane at 3.6. It could be lingering effects of preseason injury, reduced ice time? 62% expected goals when on ice, highest on the Ducks, but a -4 goal differential. P/60 is 1.31 at even strength. He is slower this year than Adam Henrique by all metrics.
I mean, can Strome be any worse than Henrique has been?
The only way I can see this working, given the Oilers cap constraints, is if Anaheim retains 1/2 of Strome in a 1:1 swap for Mangiapane (saving 1 mil for Oilers now against cap (and if works out, a 2.5 mil/season forward next year), which sources say they won’t do. Oilers definitely can’t take more back. If they would take Henrique as well, that would help, but I don’t see that happening, either.
I think Anaheim either takes Mangiapane for future considerations, or they try to get Edmonton to retain (but that should come at a cost)
The Blue Jackets are currently in last place in the Eastern Conference, at some point I’m sure they’d be willing to part with pending UFA center Charlie Coyle. He’s a right shot with size (6’3, 220) who plays 3C in a defensive role already (most DZ faceoffs on the team as well as the most PK faceoffs), and he’s currently scoring at a rate of 2.33 P/60 at 5v5. His most common linemates are Mathieu Olivier and Cole Sillinger, so he’s not being zoomed like ROR might be with Filip Forsberg.
His cap hit ($5.25M) is is going to be a little difficult to fit in, but that’s the job. If they retained 50% and asked for the 2027 1st, I think it’s great value. His M-NTC (3 team no-trade list) shouldn’t be a problem.
He has been killing it in a very tough defensive assignment role. He’d be ideal but i believe if the Jackets are out he’d fetch a great price.
Perhaps the Oil play the 3 smaller young guys and find out which one doesn’t fit and make their decisions from there before attempting to part with more assets for Coyle.
Yep Mangiapane and 1 of the young guns should be sufficient I would probably trade either Hutson who was found money or Savoie. With Henrique out Savoie might get a bump in SH minutes where he’s the most dangerous (Paul Byron)
I’d rather part with the 2027 1st than either of Savoie or Howard, and I don’t think Hutson + Mangiapane is going to be even close to enough to get Coyle.
If Hutson starts hitting the scoresheet his value will increase immensely. It’s time to give Hutson-Howard some gravy both these guys are hot the coach needs to utilize this.
Hutson’s value is well below that of Howard or the 1st round pick.
Lets not forget Hutson is 2 full years old that Savoie 2 plus years older than Howard.
Exactly.
I’m rooting for Hutson but as a trade chip he’s not in the same zip code as Howard or Savoie.
Absolutely. Magic beans way down the road are not as much value to the team as players that are NHL ready or close that have talent they know about
I wonder what’s up with Perry…
https://www.nhl.com/kings/news/kings-announce-roster-moves-january-7
Was there a recent moms trip?
😂
Personal leave, family illness. Kings’ Corey Perry granted leave to deal with family illness
I wish I had known that 10 minutes ago.
Howard and Savoie played very fast. They could use a big body to retrieve pucks ie. Podz, Clatt (with this coach yeah right), Puljujarvi :), Freddy if his boots ever return.
The Howard shot for a deflection instead of hope pass in front is the kind of thing I like to see. Youth being creative on a line that isn’t 97,29. More!
I think they need someone with the confidence and skill to hang on to the puck and make plays as neither of them can do it yet. Roslovic can. Nuge can.
Love the talent suggestion, I would worry about the longevity of both suggested players in that role. That’s becomes a very small line and the reality of the NHL involves plenty of physicality, especially on the lower lines. Would be fun to see, fast.
Jason Demers (yes that Demers!) pointed out the set play on the PP for 97’s goal. Gain the zone then hit 97 with speed. I love that they keep adding wrinkles to the unit, not unlike Leon debuting his from the back no-look play a year or two ago (to great effect against Nashville no less!).
Keep testing things, keep innovating. It’s already deadly, add a few more looks. It singlehandedly won you a playoff series against LA one year, might as well make it historic.
How do you defend against against this new wrinkle? Now that Connor is finally shooting again it should also open up tap-ins for Hyman-Leon
I’d like to see them add some wrinkles to their 5v5 attack. Since Nov 20 (funk ending) at 5v5 they are 17th GF%, 17th CF%, 9th HDGF, 4th HDCF%
Ahead in GF% Avs, Bolts, Wild, Stars, Kings, Caps. Ahead in HDGF% Bolts, Wild, Avs, Stars, Knights, Kings. If they don’t figure it out they shouldn’t expect a different outcome as it’s been the weak link for a while
You can’t rely on PP as there is so much game management in playoffs. I looked at and posted a couple of times I recall how the whistles go away based on the game and time in the game. Basically they don’t call penalties later in games especially the bigger the game, and later in playoffs
If you can’t find a penalty against the panthers, especially with Connor on the ice who could draw 10+ a game, you aren’t interested in doing it
The PP is definitely hiding issues with the 5v5 play. This is the goal for the coaches to fix prior to the playoffs.
I hope so. They should be in the top tier of the league. What concerns me is Knoblauch said he sees the offense as fine, that they are creating enough chances. I don’t think they do, or high quality enough chances, unless the other guys are letting them do what they want. When they don’t let them, the Oilers can struggle pretty hard. It’s been several seasons
The offense isn’t really the problem 5v5. Bruce has followed it on twitter that the High Danger chances recently they are giving up is better than last year when they finished top 3 in the league.
Giving up ~8 HDCA per over the last 5 (9.5 when they finished top 3), yet have given up 15 5v5 goals in that time.
Ingram was steady last night, 5v5 goalying hasn’t caught up yet.
I think part of the disparity is that when the Oilers give them up they can be real beauties
Ah yes, the elusive high HIGH danger chance. We shall call it the Slush Principle. Slideshows will begin and end with The Swarm clips.
I feel terrible for saying this but would be good for this team if Rico missed the rest of the season
Bowman saw it, asked him to waive pre season. Nice guy but at very least not a good fit
Rest him up for the playoffs he will contribute this time.
We all know Kasper will look like a top 6 winger for 4-5 games and then he’ll disappear for 10 games. Kasper needs to be heavy on the forecheck and body to have success. This style is not sustainable Kasper needs to be used like a utility infielder.
Maybe, just maybe he is figuring it out at the age of 29. I believe his forechecking with speed is sustainable as he has only played 7 games.
At 6-1 / 195 he is not a smallish guy. Average (2024 data) for forwards is 6-1 / 198. The are many dmen in the league today that are smaller than him and he is fast enough to catch them.
Nuge, 500 assists.
There’s only one way this ends, Nuge retires as a career long Oiler with his number retired and he becomes the president of hockey operations.
500 assists never hitting 50 points in a season will go down in history.
Consistency matter:
2042 NHL Scoring: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins with 49 points at the age of 49 setting an NHL record as the oldest player to almost reach 50 points.
WOW. I haven’t quite internalised until now how poorly Winnipeg is doing. A 10 game losing streak will do that I guess.
Has any team in any pro sport league ever finished first and then last season over season?
Rangers tried hard last year.
The top 3 picks are studs a shitty season will be well worth 10 years of McKenna.
Agreed. I was just looking at their player stats last night to see who might be of interest in a possible Mangiapane trade. (Winnipeg needs some depth scoring, and if some of the rumours are true that Mangiapane’s underlying numbers indicate more of the player the Oilers thought they were getting, then Mangiapane could be an option for them). Winnipeg really looks like a weak team outside of Scheifele, Connor, Vilardi, Morrissey, DeMelo, and Hellebuyck (and maybe Samberg). So, basically a one line team. The rest of the team seems to be having off years, almost like they are all slotted too high without Ehlers.
I think Mangiapane still has a spurt or two left in him. I think he is well liked he just isn’t the right fit with our coach-team
Agreed. And that’s why I hope we can get something useful for him, if he’s to be traded.
Scott Arniel’s trying to outdo the Boy Wondercroft’s stay in Edmonton.
They have 1 win in their last 15 games.
I think maybe in baseball (1st to worst) … but not sure.
I think they overachieved last year, but if you told me they would be dead last this year, I would have bet the farm.
Mangiapane either gets traded for a player in the same situation. So a reclamation project.
Or if its just to dump the salary, because of the second year of the contract, the Oilers will need to attach an asset. I dont know what that asset is, but if Im another team, Im not asking for anyone less than Hutson.
There are plenty of reclamation projects making less than mangi.
think ryan poehling, think isaac lundestrom, think maxim tsyplakov.
It appears that some other orgs might actually value to Mang, even with the second year of is contract. I still find that tough to imagine but the accounts are out there and I will hope for a clean disposition.
————
With Jarry on LTIR, Oilers have tons of cap space in the short term for call-ups but, currently, no roster spot. Of course, Henrique on regular IR opens up the roster spot.
With Henrique, a center, being the injury, there is an argument for Samanski. He’s earned it as well but I’m not sure what the org thinks of his readiness.
I believe they will hold off for at least a few days and Fred will slide on to the 4th line tomorrow.
I have a good feeling about Fred starting to pick up his game tomorrow – this is another re-set and opportunity – its time!
Not sure I share your optimism on Fred turning his game but I certainly hope you are right. There really are no reasonable options for getting rid of Fred contract so best case scenario he finds his game and can contribute in the bottom 6.
Half the fan base has determined that what we’ve seen from Frederic this season is what he will provide for the next 7.5 seasons and I can’t imagine that’s true.
He’s been awful, I won’t deny that but never playing him again, and sending him home, etc., etc, as is been proposed out there is nonsensical. They do need to play him and he needs to find his game – its the only option.
I feel like they really need to make room for Hutson. Like, what else do they want this kid to do to earn it? I’m saying a 10 – 15 game audition with opportunity with some skilled players. They still have a little time imo, but are starting to be in danger of Broberging this kid soon
He’s forcing his way into the line-up
and Bowman has always given NHL time to players that deserve it. The only problem is 3 smallish forwards in Hutson-Howard-Savoie. I myself would pump
and dump one of these 3 after they get a look see by other G.M’s.
Breaking Hutson in while also breaking Savoie and Howard may be a bit much.
Then trade him then as Reja suggests. Can’t just let him die on the vine.
Its his rookie pro season – he’s under team control.
We are a long ways from dying on the vine – the player himself, days ago, talked about how happy he is that he chose to sign with Edmonton and getting games in the NHL has been moving faster than he ever imagine.
Why do you think Frederick will be back in after one game of sitting ? He sat a game a week or so ago and it did nothing to change his urgency when he got back in. I think he needs a few more to get his mind in the right place ..Besides that lineup last night looked good without him and Magiapone. Maybe go 11-7 .
Henrique is out and Fred plays over Mang.
The relationship with Mang is over, he’ll be moved, likely some time in the next few weeks.
Frederic is an Oiler indefinitely, the relationship has not soured, the player is not age-regressing and has a long history of better play.
11/7 is terrible and I’m certainly not putting in Stilman (to add to Regula and Emerson and Stastney) over Fred.
I am of the opinion that until he gets his head straight and gets some motivation to be engaged somehow that he wont come back or if he does he will be upstairs again quickly . My read is that this coaching/Mgmt team has had enough because this is not a health issue its an attitude issue. Unless of course he needs a health brake like Ingram but there is no indication that this is the case.
The issue with Fredrick is he hasn’t healed from his high ankle.
When he scored 18 and 19 he was top 20-30% in the league for max speed and speed bursts. Last two years he has been in the bottom 50%.
NHL doesn’t show where in the bottom 50 to be nice to the players lol but he has lost a step and probably affecting his whole game.
Can’t get to the forecheck fast enough to hit. Can’t skate into scoring spots fast enough.
Can only hope for a Connor Brown scenario at this point of horrible year 1 and good year 2. Since I dont see a way out with Freddy
What about years 3-8 for Freddy?
Hahah agreed. Im just coping and hoping for positive but agreed its a bad deal and hate we are stuck with him
I believe coach spoke on that at length, and stated there was zero issue with the ankle.
That doesn’t mean a healed ankle has him up to full speed I know.
But Frederic also stated he was “surprised” that he signed in Edmonton, but he really liked the org. Strange. Couple ways to take that. He wasn’t impressed getting traded to Edmonton and had no intention of signing. Why? maybe those reasons returned after he was romanced into the contract?
Yeah I know they said he’s healthy but looking at his skating stats there is a clear drop off and it’s not like hes that old to all of a sudden slow down. I am coping hoping its an injury cause if he did just slow down fully healed we are in trouble for 8 years
Re coach on injuries— I take any in-season comments about injuries with an unhealthy (large) helping of NaCl. No better way to sabotage a player recovering from injury than to paint a target on it.
Someone hypnotize Leon and convince him we play 82 games against the Predators and will play them in the Finals
Very glad they won. I could only watch the first, and man did they look out of sorts. It’s hard to believe a team with as much talent as that can look like an AHL team – that’s what popped into my head
Knoblauch has to find a way to not waste what he has. As LT said, a little more attention to detail and puck management would make a huge difference. That being said, they are doing well in Reg Win%. I think it indicates some strength:
Avg Reg Win% since Nov 29 of the 9 teams .465
Avs .667
Oilers .611
Wild .526
Bolts .500
panthers .500
Stars .444
Caps .389
Canes .316
Knights .235
However, one stat that they aren’t so hot in is wins against playoff teams, which to me is directly related to their issues with details. Better teams will not let you get away with being sloppy. Playoff Team Games, POT Wins, POT Losses, POT Win%:
Avg 9 teams 9 / 5 / 3 / .555
Oilers 7 / 4 / 3 / .571
Avs 8 / 7 / 1 / .875
Knights 7 / 2 / 5 / .286
Stars 9 / 5 / 4 / .555
Wild 9 / 6 / 3 / .666
Caps 9 / 3 / 6 / .333
Canes 7 / 5 / 2 / .714
Bolts 11 / 7 / 4 / .636
panthers 11 / 9 / 2 / .818
The only teams worse are the Knights and Caps. The Avs Bolts and panthers show up for good opponents. That the panthers are doing it without Barkov and Turtle shows how important having the right style and sticking to it is
I think they give everything they have, but I would not be happy having that much trouble against the better teams if I was an Oiler, because they should be winning against most teams, regardless of circumstances if the Avs and panthers can
Since November 29, Buffalo is 13-4, 4 wins in OT/SO – .823
Regulation wins 9
Sabres POT games 7/POT Wins 6/POT Losses 1
While you are using November 29 since that is when the Oilers turned north, Buffalo did the same just over a week later when they beat the Oilers 4-3 in OT.
Since December 9th against playoff teams.
BUF 4 – EDM 3 (OT)
BUF 3 – SEA 1
BUF 5 – PHA 3
BUF 3 – NYI 2 (SO)
BUF 4 – DAL 1
The Sabres have not lost to a playoff team since December 3 when they were defeated 5-2 by PHA.
Of note…since November 15th the Sabres record against playoff teams:
BUF 5 DET 4
BUF 5 EDM 1
BUF 4 CAR 1
PIT 4 BUF 2
BUF 3 MIN 2
PHA 5 BUF 2
BUF 4 EDM 3
BUF 3 SEA 1
BUF 5 PHA 3
BUF 3 NYI 2
BUF 4 DAL 1
9W 2L against playoff teams.
While I recognize winning in regulation has value, winning in OT/SO doesn’t matter much if the team you beat is not in your own division or conference.
I like to use 10 game segments since it tends to capture those teams that are playing well right now.
PTS/LAST 10/ CURENT PLAYOFF TEAMS
BUF 18
COL 16
TBL 16
MON 14
DET 13
PHA 13
MIN 13
PIT 12
SJS 12
DAL 11
NYI 11
EDM 10
WSH 10
CAR 9
LAK 8
VGK 7
I’m very curious to see how much sustain the Sabres might have under new management and if they will add before the deadline.
Colorado is also worth keeping an eye on in the near term since they are returning home from a downbeat Florida road trip but now have an almost 3 week stretch on home ice with 7 home games, 6 against non-playoff teams.
Mackenzie Blackwood, Devon Toews and Gabriel Landeskog all injured.
The Sabres have been on a roll for sure. I’m not tracking the whole league because of time. The Islanders are also playing well but neither team interested me when I started. The Wings also have done well, same thing
I’m not saying Colorado isn’t a good team, but 9 of their top 10 forwards (by ice time) played every game until Landeskog missed the last game. Nichushkin is the lone forward who has missed any games of those 10, and he only missed 8 of the 42 games played. 14 players have played in at least 40 of 42 games. Devon Toews is the only top 4 D (by average ice time) to have missed any games, and he’s only missed 2.
What I’m getting at is other than Blackwood, which really should be expected if you look at his history, the Avs have not faced much adversity. I haven’t done a similar review of other top teams, but do know the Oilers have not had an easy go of it from an injury standpoint.
The Oilers have had only 8 players not miss any games. Two others (Frederic and Mangiapane) have played at least 40 games. The games they missed were due to being healthy scratched, but we know Frederic is likely still hindered by his ankle injury. (Similarly, Ekholm was likely hindered by his groin injury early in the season). Of those 8 players, 3 are D. Walman has missed 26 games, Hyman has missed 19 games, Roslovic has missed 13 games, and Nuge has missed 9 games. That is a lot of impact on the top 6 F and top 4 D.
So, we’ll see how the Avs do now that they are facing adversity, although they have a relatively easy schedule from what you’ve indicated that could mitigate the impact of their injuries.
The thing about Colorado is they are so deep that injury doesn’t quite have the impact you think it might.
As you mentioned…Nichushkin missed the first 8 games and took awhile to get going.
But he’s not the only one.
#3 RW Logan O’Connor has missed all 41 games this season. He is fast, play driving third liner who is also an elite penalty killer. Colorado filled that spot after acquiring former University of Michigan star Gavin Brindley…GF percentage 60.7%
#4 LW Joel Kiviranta, also a penalty killer, has missed the last 21 games. He’s been replaced by free agent signing and former CKSA Moscow star forward Zakhar Bardakov. GF percentage 69.2%
Also joining their bottom 6 is Cale’s bigger but younger brother Taylor Makar who has played 5 games with a GF of 100%
It appears Toews will miss about 2 weeks which is serious but both he and Landeskog are expected to be available for the Olympics and Landeskog;s injury is NOT his knee.
They will be missed but Colorado does have viable in-house replacements in Sam Girard and and Viktor Olofsson so will welcome the easier schedule.
Not having a 3W is not the same as not having a 1W. Colorado has not had to deal with injuries to above replacement level players other than Nichushkin so far, and even then, they weren’t dealing with multiple injuries to top 6 F and/or top 4 D for an extended period of time. It’s much easier to replace a 25 pt checking winger playing 14 min a game from within than it is to replace a 30 G winger who plays 19 min a game. So, we’ll see how well Colorado does in the face of these injuries.
I’m expecting we’ll see some “corrections” as this compressed season continues to wear on teams and players. Especially on teams with key/star players not getting a rest because of their Olympic involvement. I’m assuming the current standings will be changed by April (though the Avalanche have done a very good job of insuring a strong standing, no matter how much injury adversity they may or may not face).
I’m all for keeping the powder dry at the deadline this year. Unless the guy that makes this team a cup favorite is dangling out there for nothin and he’s got an nmc and only wants to play in Edmonton, the most important thing they do this year is not make deals that will negatively impact the net two.
What will Roslovic’s value be after this season?
This is a guy who can make plays 5v5 but doesn’t have top-line playmaking or finish. I feel like his +/- stats are an indicative track record of spotty defensive play.
I bet a team like Seattle gives him a 5×5 contract.
why didnt any team sign him last summer? Numbers are pretty comparable this year to last.
From Nov 20 for forwards over 40 minutes Ros is 14th in GF% 4-8 / 33.33, 14th in HDCF% 36.67, and 14th in HDGF% 1-5 / 16.67. Ughh. I think he’ll have trouble again next summer, and I hope Stan finds a better two way player
He was on a heater prior to then. He’s got some incredible skills but clearly also a few deficiencies.
I think he’s best suited for a scoring 3rd line.
Yes, I used that date as the team was playing better. I agree 3rd line with a good two way C would be the way
Roslovic is like Hyman. If you miscast him you’ll get meh. You cast him right and you get a river pusher. He generates all on his own and doesn’t habitually defer.
The Oilers search long and hard for this type of player.
Sign the man and don’t be afraid to pay him a bit.
If he’s spotty defensively whatever. as long as he has the confidence he’ll go out and score the next one you pay him.
That sort of confidence is exactly what’s been missing on the 2nd/3rd line since forever.
If Ryan O’Reilly is somehow available at the deadline, the Oilers should be all over that. He’s essentially playing top line center in Nashville. Put him at 3C here and this team is cooking with gas. Henrique can play 4C (or get Nashville to take him back and send Mccarron here too). Low cost especially if Nashville retains, and potentially a good guy to resign for 3-4 years to anchor the bottom 6 for this team.
No idea what it would cost the Oilers but I hope Bowman is making calls.
ROR would be an excellent get. He’s not a rental though, he has another year left (which is a good thing) but means that they’re less likely to retain. They’ll want Savoie + 1st though – is he worth that?
ROR would turn out like Henrique in Edmonton.
He is going to be 35 this year (older than Henrique when he joined the Oilers).
His numbers are a function of playing top line minutes with the Preds best players. He is also playing nearly 20:00 minutes a night.
On the Oilers, he would play 12-14 minutes a night with the Leftovers. His numbers and productivity would crater.
I am not opposed to acquiring him but would not give up significant assets for a player that would be used in a depth role on the Oilers. I have seen that movie before.
Good points. Ideally the 3C role would be for a quality emerging player trying to work up, and step up when the core starts getting old. Or a MacT if you can find that, but I can’t think of a player like that
Maybe Samanski soon enough, not this year likely. Lundell’s line crushed the playoffs last time
So, Ryan McLeod? I’ll see myself out.
heh heh
Bob did hint at it yesterday.
I had a bit of an ahah moment last night when I was listening to the post game interview with Kapenan ..He told the reporter that playing with Dri was straight forward .You forechecked hard got Dri the puck and then go get open ..That and back check like a demon ( my add)
That was my aha moment .Nuge Hyman Kapenan and Pod understand their rolls. Forecheck get puck to MacDavid and Dri and then get open with ther sticks on the ice .Not like Skinner who always had his in the rafters waiting for a pass from McDavid who was mucking in the corners .,
J Skinner, Ardvisson, Ferederick and Mangiapone all had it backwards they would go get open and expect McDavid and Di to go get the puck and get to them for a scoring chance . Nope ! not right and that is why you are either in the press box or else where in the league
Of Course it would help if these four were quick enough and thought the game fast enough like Nuge Hyman et el
I would frame it differently. In fairness to the players you mention, that is their strength. So, when you sign a Mangiapane, there’s going to be a bit of a transition (or not) because he’s used to transportation and playing a skill game. Jeff Skinner drove everyone nuts with his delays at the blue line but that’s what he does! I don’t blame the player, the fit is the issue. It’s one reason Clattenburg shone when he was here. It’s another reason Tomasek is back in Sweden. I know he’s a great passer on the power play, but who are you going to sit? Not 97-29-93-2, so it’s Hyman? I don’t think so.
I agree.The GM and the Pro Scouts need to do a better job of defining what is actually needed to make the team better ..It is early but I think that Savoie and Howard have figured it out and are working on the skills needed to being the next waive of the complimentary pieces to these two all world talents for when the Nuges and Hymans age out .
Skinner 2024-25 – 5v5
1.74 P/60, -3.97% xGFrel
Roslovic 2025-26 – 5v5
1.74 P/60, -4.06% xGFrel
Eye test?
Not sure what point you are trying to make but I will say that Roslovic is faster, a better 200 foot player and compliments so many more players on the team then Skinner was able to do .I am sure that Skinner is much happier on another team where his skills are a better fit.
Jeff Skinner is 5-5-10 in 29 games
Roslovic is 12-8-20 in 30 games
Skinner was 16-13-29 in 72 games last season.
I think it’s safe to say that Roslovic is outperforming Skinners Edmonton run, while Skinners Edmonton run is outperforming his new digs.
Roslovics edge work is exceptional, his shot is always dangerous, always trying to make something happen.
*everyone is outperforming Foegele in any situation lol
It’s funny, when Foegele was around I sure saw him differently than many. All the tools but not the ability to out them all to use. Too many plays dying at the end of his stick. Stats when the chips were down backed it up
If my chemical romance was a hockey player, that Emo would be Warren Foegele. All these tools and decides to be a pouting suck fest whenever things got difficult.
I would push back on the “better defensive player”. I like Jack’s skill but his leakiness and defensive zone issues are becoming highly evident.
Agree. If done correctly, the stars aren’t there to enhance their wingers (though it should happen organically), they are there to help the stars
Kapanen’s shot was going wide by the same margin as Savoie’s shot, but it hit the defender, bounced around and in. Yet one guy is a hero, the other a chump. Interesting how this works.
full value for the race, board battle, assist to Drai. happened quick. happened well.
Even the pass to Drai wasn’t great, it went straight to the defender’s stick. He fumbled it, Draisaitl didn’t.
I’m happy for the guy, I just find the narratives interesting.
fair
Man, calling Savoie a chump is wildy unfair. He’s a good player.
Someone (forgot who, sorry) on this board mentioned that he has been working on his defensive game, effectively raising his floor at the (for the time being) expense of his ceiling. I think that’s bang on: he’s building a foundation (house metaphor doing some good work) and becoming an exceptionally good defensive forward and learning how to be a small guy with longevity. The goals will come — I believe if he weren’t being exceptionally responsibile to start his career he would be closer to Eberle rookie numbers on offense. Love this player.
He was called low skill in the thread last night after he missed the net – I won’t name names.
Kapanen has been called the chump by a large majority for a year now, interesting.
As good as Kapanen looked last night I don’t think he will be a fixture in the top 6. He can and has been a pretty good bottom 6 player and if Kap is on your 4 th line your depth is likely good.
Maybe with a baby on the way, growth and focus on what’s important has matured for the freshly shaven with a new hair cut Kapanen.
If he brings the speed and forecheck that wingers he’s competing with can’t bring like he does, it may be a longer run in the top 6 then folks realize.
3 shots and a team leading 5 hits which were mostly behind the opponents goal will give the coach motivation to keep him where he is.
Life in a nutshell.
pretty sure noone is calling savoie a slump following last game.
Ike, Ros, and Savvy all played terrific.
Perhaps but he was called as such (well “low skill”) during the game….
Watching the game, it appeared that Lazar, Howard, Kasperi (and to a lesser extent Savoie) all had good nights last night. If they can match or improve as expected, then should not see Henry, Mangi, Freddy on the ice until the inevitable injuries happen.
More importantly, if all those guys can pop, then it makes the bottom 6 dangerous for the other team, and allows the coaches to dial back the top line minutes.
I would still like to see the PP2 get a more regular kick at playing, once the top PP has had a minute or so. Again, player maintenance, but even just to force different looks for the opposition to have to prepare against.
Beautymark was a menace on the backtrack and puck transportation.
Freddie will be in with Lazar and Janmark tomorrow I’m pretty sure.
As I watched the WJC over the holidays, SOR was very noticeable in a good way. Lamented the fact that this player will be a good 3C / 4C PK guy in the NHL and was not feeling good about the trade at all.
Last night changed that completely. A few have commented that Howard is the goods, but with a lack of viewing / research on my part, I did not see it. Howard could have had 3 points last night.
I know Stan will want to know that I now approve of the trade.
I wish the Oilers still had SOR in their prospect pool – he was a very good prospect when they drafted him and he remains a very good prospect.
When thinking about SOR at this tournament perhaps remember that Issac Howard had 7 goals in 7 games in the same tournament at the same age.
I don’t understand the narrative that Connor Ungar is too small. He is taller than Dustin Wolf.
What am I missing?
Traditionally, the Oilers fade undersized goalies. We’ll see. Ungar looks good, but he has for some time. He was signed by Edmonton in March of 2024 and saw the AHL only after the need became great. He’s a good goalie. I don’t know that he’ll get a chance.
Tony Esposito, I loved him even though he -to my eye- made my Ken Dryden look less-than. He was 5’11”
Of course, he never won a Cup.
Nobody loves the shorter goalies. Including Lord Stanley?
The Oilers rolled last night, delivering the kind of game that is highly entertaining…
Before last night’s three goal outburst, I nearly posted how watching much of the Oilers season so far was a bit like whale watching – long, dull stretches of bobbing about waiting for something to happen, with occasional moments of breathtaking awe (thank you, Captain Connor)
West Maui in Feb is your answer for much more constant whale watching, if that’s something you’re looking for.
Well you would hope once Walman is back that we do not see much of Regula and when we do it will be to replace Emerson here and there. The kid cannot play with Nurse period.
I like the way that Ingram likes to move into the puck on a lot of saves and smothers it rather than giving out fat rebounds. It works.
I do wonder what Henrique’s injury is. Wish him the best but if it is a long one it probably benefits them with hopefully giving them a long look at Roslovic on the 3rd dot with Savoie and Howard. Or it will hasten a trade for a 3rd line C man. Guess we see what it is.
On Mangiapanne. Wish or hope that ends this week.
Has anyone else noticed that a couple times over the last 3 weeks McDavid has said in post game or pre game interviews how much he loves playing with Nuge and Hyman. He did it again last night saying how much fun he has with the 2 on ice. Maybe telling Knobby “don’t mess with this line”. As he hasn’t, albeit they have been great, but this could be a reason Knobby doesn’t look at Nuge on the 3rd line dot.
Blaming Nurse for Regula is like blaming Roslovic for Henrique.
Its not Nurse’s fault that the Oilers haven’t given him an NHL partner after his first four years.
Babysitting the ghost of Ceci, Troy Stetcher and then constant parade of tweeners or rookies while having to deal with 2nd and 3rd line forward groups who are always two guys short..
One would figure that folks would consider that before teeing off on the guy. Alas it shall never be.
Edit – I apologize, I believe I misread your post.
The Nurse point still stands but sorry for responding that way.
Nurse is the one being babysat. He’s going to be either a #6 D or a forward by the playoffs.
If you don’t consider the linemates you’ll never get the whole picture.
Not blaming anyone. He is nowhere near a 2nd pairing D. Barely a #6/7. Just saying.
That’s because he’s on the ice with Black Holes that can’t bust a cycle or generate more than one shot on a counter attack.
And when those forwards get frustrated and start cheating Darnell will try to make up for it.
Its a vicious crappy loop.
If you’re defending you’re losing. The Oilers inability to find proper offensive guns for the 2nd and 3rd line has cost them and Nurse’s fancies.
How many unneeded icings and swim meets do you need to see before you realize he’s part of the Black hole. It isn’t all his fault, he also isn’t guilt-free. He’s played with Bouch plenty (and succeeded, because of Nurse? Not convinced) and he’s not taking nearly the elite matchups anymore that was part of the internal reason for Nurse’s contract.
I’m not sure what you mean by the forwards ‘cheating’ and Nurse overcompensating. Do you have examples of that? They’ve been disjointed but that seemed systemic until they got some practice time.
I would like to see Drai orMcD play a few shifts with Savoie and Howard to see what they are capable of.They looked good with Rothlovic,but he is not an NHL center.
Walman needs to be back, if only to give Regula a chance to play with someone else. The bonus is him sitting and getting some perspective from higher up. I agree he did not look good last night (or a few nights before that), but I believe he is a keeper who will continue to improve as the game slows down for him. We saw similar struggles with Emberson last year, and this year he has been much more steady.
Hopefully the Oilers don’t need to sell a dear asset to move Mangipane along, and it gets done tout suite.
Has anyone looked good playing with Nurse????
Evan Bouchard and Troy Stecher. 61 percent goal share five-on-five with Bouchard in the last three seasons.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20252026&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2025-10-07&td=2026-04-16&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8480803&p2=8477498&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
What actual competent NHL defensemen has Nurse actually been paired with?
With Broberg in the Stanley Cup final, against perhaps a generational opponent, Nurse was close to +1 per game. Three wins, two losses. (And then they discarded Broberg).
Ceci was a 3rd pairing D, Nurse was taked with playing 1st pair with for a couple of years, and then 2nd pair after Ekholm arrived.
Tyson Barrie was never known for his defense.
Bear was a rookie.
Regula was a rookie.
So seems like we have (and have had for a long time) a 2 RD problem????? I guess the only real solution is having Walman play his off side as neither Regula or Emberson have shown they can survive there. Hopefully Walman can stay healthy once he is back.
I know you like Bro, but his performance was like Pickard’s last playoffs who won games despite weak numbers. Bro in his 10 games was below Nurse in everything but CF% and GF%. His GF% was crazy at 75.00, but I’m not sure it reflects his quality of play as much as luck and getting timely saves
In the Stanley Cup final, where it was metaphorically trial by fire, against a potentially generational hockey team, Broberg saved the Oilers from being swept, by flipping Nurse from a -1 per game D in the playoffs to a +1 per game D the final five games on his offside. Was it pretty advanced stats wise. No. But did the job get done. Yep. Three wins. Two losses. Not playing Broberg that season literally cost the Oilers and McDavid the Cup.
Last year Broberg started the season as the #4D in St. Louis, and was a legit #3D after one month and for the remainder of the year. Top three in the league in least goals against per sixty amongst defensemen who had played significant minutes.
This year, Broberg started the season as the #3D in St. Louis, and was the #1D after one month, and displaced Ekholm from the Olympic team by the New Year. Broberg and Parayko are 3rd in the league in least goals against per sixty amongst D pairs who have played significant minutes, on the worst goal differential team in the league.
The Oilers blundered away a decade of Broberg erasing Bouchard’s controller fails. (One should just look at Justin Faulk’s defensive stats with and without Broberg since Broberg has been in St. Louis).
And I effing told you guys before this all happened. I devoted that entire season screaming from the effing mountaintops. Play Broberg.
And then I told you that the offer sheet was coming.
Claiming you told us all when every single person wanted Broberg in the lineup is a bit rich.
I was continually told that left shot defensemen cannot play the right side.
Nobody said that about Kulak last year, or Walman and Stastney this year.
Agreed Holland blundered it away. Brutal
Holy hell – come on man – that pairing got caved in the playoffs to a tune of 30% expected goals.
They ran an 18% shooting percentage (not driven by either of them) and a 95% save percentage.
If the Oilers are into big goalies, there’s Michal Orsulak (6’4″, 220) who I mentioned the other day.
Another Czech in the Dub is even bigger and also draft-eligible. 17-year-old Filip Ruzicka is a towering 6’7″, 230 lb. tendy for Brandon, and he was just named WHL Goalie of the Month for December.
Just based on his play at the WJHC Orsulak is interesting (I know small sample size). I wonder where he falls in the draft ranking. Simply because of the Oilers’ success with Euro and FA signings this spring, I wonder if they can take a flyer on a goalie prospect with a mid round pick.
Orsulak was eligible for last year’s draft (by only about three weeks, mind you). He’d be an overager like Daniel Salonen was when the Oilers picked him last year.
Central Scouting had Orsulak rated #9 among international goalies for the 2025 draft. As a point of reference, Salonen wasn’t even on the CSB list for his first draft-eligible year of 2024.
Just to add:
CSB put out their preliminary “watch” list back in October. The top tier of players are “A”s, then the next are “B”s, etc.
If you click the PDF link within that site, you’ll see Orsulak listed among the “C”s, meaning he’s expected to go in rounds 4-5.
Germany officially released its Olympic roster this morning. I know OP was looking for confirmation. Josh Samanski will be joining Leon!
Germany roster for 2026 Winter Olympics includes Draisaitl, Seider | NHL.com
Germany should have a pretty good team
Dominik Kahun sighting!
And Tobias Rieder
I already have Tobias scoring a game winning SH marker catapulting the Germans into the top 4.
i wonder if they will play kahun with draisaitl because he oncehad 206 points playing with drat in u16 hockey in mannheim.
tongue in cheek.
Negative is Germany will probably play the hell of Drai. Positive is that he will probably only play a max of 5 games and be off from at least Feb 18th until the Feb 25th.
Overall, given how slow most of the Oilers start after long breaks, that’s probably a good compromise of intensity on the ice to keep him in the meaningful hockey mode and a bit of rest before returning.
and the later is key – he’ll get plenty of rest/recovery.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ll be cheering like hell for Team Germany but, realistically, they will be done early.