The Edmonton Oilers are on the road again, and Winnipeg hasn’t always been an inviting destination. In spite of a vibrant music and arts scene, the city also houses a pretty filthy and effective hockey team. Thing is, they’re hurting. And when you come after an injured anything there’s going to be a stand and deliver desperation response.
The Jets are as cold as the January roads that occupy Winnipeg today. I don’t trust that ‘0-6-4 in the last 10’ any farther than I can throw it and that’s the truth.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: Flyers, Preds (Expected 1-0-1) 1-1-0
- On the road to: Jets (Expected 1-0-0)
- At home to: Kings (Expected 1-0-0)
- On the road to: Blackhawks, Preds (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: NYI (Expected 0-0-1)
- On the road to: Canucks (Expected 1-0-0)
- At home to: Blues, Devils, Penguins, Caps (Expected 2-1-1)
- At home to: Ducks, Sharks, Wild (Expected 1-1-1)
- Expected Record: 8-3-4, 20 points in 15 games
- Actual Record: 1-1-0
- Season Record: 21-16-6, 48 points in 43 games
The Oilers should win tonight and honestly this sets up beautifully as we head to the Olympic break. I’ll be looking for that fab third line (Ike Howard-Jack Roslovic-Matt Savoie) the coach threw together a couple of nights ago. I’m also curious to see if Kasperi Kapanen can bring another solid game. If that man finds anything close to consistency, the deadline shopping list might be lighter than expected. Finally, Connor McDavid is playing extreme hockey right now and is must watch live or on television. Imagine, the greatest show on ice and he plays for a team that plays 30 minutes from my house. Music!
TRENT FREDERIC
Average foot speed in last year’s playoffs was 34.87. Frederic’s top end was 35.94 kph on May 27 versus Dallas Stars. That was the only game he was faster than average. Slowest? 32.26 April 29 versus LAK. He wasn’t right.
Average foot speed in this year’s regular season is 35.45. Frederic has yet to exceed that number, but has one game where his max foot speed was 34.96, November 20 versusTampa Bay. Lowest was 33.34 versus St. Louis Blues November 3. He isn’t right.
He re-tweaked the injury in early April a year ago. The verbal in the comments section rejected the idea that he is still recovering, but I would suggest eight months (April to January) is not a year and that we should wait to see how it plays out. No one is suggesting he is playing like the Frederic of old, but I’m going to wait until we either see how the rest of his season plays out. Suspect he’ll be in the lineup tonight.
ALEC REGULA
Alec Regula had a tough night against the Predators, and that’s going to happen from time to time with young players. He missed an entire season, has played in 26 of 43 games this season. His five-on-five goal share is 8-24 (25 percent) which is easily the poorest on the team. He is 6.04, 211 and slightly about average in max foot speed (34.77 kph versus 34.68), and he can move the puck. That’s a player worth investing in, and I hope the Oilers stay the course.
CONDORS
Quinn Hutson belongs in a higher league, and he should be the next recall. You cannot tell me there are 12 better forwards on the Oilers roster. The right-wing depth chart has Zach Hyman, Kasperi Kapanen, Matt Savoie and Trent Frederic currently, and you would be better off running Hutson over Frederic at this time. Recall him, Stan! Josh Samanski continues to lead the team in even-strength offense, and Roby Jarventie is having a good time on the No. 1 line. Viljami Marjala has been doing good work and is improving his goal share at even strength. Plenty of good from the forwards.
Beau Akey is officially rolling. In the last month, he is 12, 2-4-6 offensively and 14-9 (61 percent) in goal share. RH defenseman who has adjusted this quickly to the AHL? Sign me up!
Connor Ungar should be earning a few more starts about now, we’ll see how it goes. Matt Tomkins has been playing well of late, too.
We lost a great one in Glenn Hall. I only met him briefly many years ago, but know his story well. He was a gentle and kind man, he was a farmer at heart. Hall was traded with Ted Lindsay from Detroit to Chicago in 1957. The Blackhawks were not a strong club when he arrived, but Hall helped the team win Stanley in 1961. His save percentage in the final was .944, Detroit owned a .900SP courtesy Terry Sawchuk and Hank Bassen.
Hall hated training camp, and was always late for it. He would be ‘painting the barn’ until he wasn’t, and teams waited on him because he was worth it. Hall’s story would make a grand movie. He was a good man, and a fantastic hockey player. RIP.
On the Lowdown today, I’ll be joined by Rachel Kryshak from Betalytics at 12:40. We’ll chat about Kapanen’s consistency, the new third line and Connor Ingram. Bagged Milk pops in at 1, and we’ll tee up the Oilers-Jets tonight and talk about the Olympic ice rink. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
I know everyone already knows this but we’d be a top 3 team if we had a “good” goalie.
Looking at Oilers goalies SV% on NHL.com:
Skinner: 0.891
Ingram 0.891
Jarry 0,887
Pickard 0.871
I think Oil fandom would spontaneously spasm in ecstasy if we somehow found a goalie who could give us a 0.900 SV %
He’s coming. Connor Ungar needs a little more seasoning in Bake.
Ingram has been over .900 in all games but his one – that one bad outing skews his numbers.
Jarry has played 2.75 games as an Oiler and, in two games, a goal was scored very late in garbage time of a win that skews his numbers.
The sample sizes are very small that the numbers can be skewed like that but both these goalies have played well since the trade.
Yeah, I’ve been quite pleased with Ingram. He’s had four Quality Starts out of five… It’s tough to ask more than that.
I know we’d ideally want to pick up a RHC at the deadline over a left-handed one, but how much you figure Morgan Barron would cost? Liked what I saw tonight, very manageable contract for this year and next, 6’4, knows the bottom-6 role well.
Nurse on for 2 more goals against at evens. He’s now up to 7th in the league with 40GA at 5v5. He’s actually a bit fortunate as he’s second in the league in scoring chances against.
What’s really wild is that he’s 6th in TOI on the PK/game. I think most would think that’s where he makes his hay. But his SCA/60 on the PK is around 90 second worst in the league ahead only of 18 year old Matthew Schaefer.
So what do you have when you have a guy that doesn’t play PP, can’t play PK and is getting carved up at evens?
I’ll admit he’s playing 2nd pairing with below average partners but if this performance sticks when Walman returns Nurse could quite easily be 4L behind Ekholm, Walman and Stastney.
If there’s ANY trade available hed accept you take it. Maybe even Huberdeau
You lost me at Huberdeau.
Nurse is inconsistent, not always horrendous. Played with the right D partner, he can be a positive difference maker. He also is not guaranteed to be terrible year after year.
Nurse for Huburdeau makes the team worse – end stop.
Of note, Calvin Pickard was the most culpable on the two goal last night.
Hellebucyk – Olympian – loser Pickard – backup – Winner
Pickard with a sparkling 0.813 SV% for the win! Hellebuyck with a 0.867 SV% for the loss.
I only caught the 3rd period. Watching the recorded game tomorrow will be easier knowing they pulled out a Win.
Quite liked the chemistry between Howard and Roslovic. Would be nice to see them with a decent skating, defensively conscious, high IQ centre.
That’s who Rico was supposed to be. Left us a big hole that only 93 can fill.
Not to be the TSN turning point, but when Cal moved Nurse’s stick into the net in the second, I yelled at him that it’s the last thing he’s allowed to let past him.
To be fair. Nurses stick wasn’t doing much all game.
Okay, I got 3 freshly plucked and boiled crows here, who wants one, Ingy? Dangy? Michy?
Watching Hyman’s post game avail, is he still wearing a cast?
It looks like it’s just well taped.
McDavid with 2 points and he’s fallen to second in the scoring race.
MacKinnon is just is ridiculous.
Celebrini is having an incredible season for age that is flying under the radar in SJS to many
Ya it’s surprising that nobody has mentioned celebrini on this site.
He is clearly the heir apparent to McDavid in terms of the ability to take off as a teenager and potentially have an incredibly long and productive career. Will be exciting to see as a Canadian hockey fan. Not so much as a Pacific division opponent (but it will likely give McDrai an extra incentive to get up for these games…)
The Avalanche record for goals in one game is 12.
They might get there tonight.
That happens when your team pumps for 8 goals.
guess they took that 2 game losing streak personal…
Gotta give Frederic props for fighting Stanley. He’s a monster! That seemed to spark the team. Also I’ll give Nurse props after the first goal against. Although seeing highlights, Pickard had zero awareness the puck had been passed out. He was still on the post and baseline?! Nurse made a few excellent plays, including the pass to Hyman for gtg.
That was probably the best game I’ve seen from a line that finished -2.
I hope they keep 53-28-22 together for a while.
I kinda agree. The first game they played together was bad but tonight, despite the -2 they looked decent and Savoie on the PK is good.
I would say similar for the Nurse/Stastney pair who had a good game despite being tagged with some dashes.
Just to note.
Fredrick did something and
Regula made 0 mistakes.
Good arrows.
Obviously that last Jets timeout was to go over the late night bus schedule. #NeverInDoubt
Contract aside, would anyone prefer Zack Stortini to Trent Frederic at this point?
…I mean, he’s only 40, so he wouldn’t be the oldest NHLer, but it’s been 13 or 14 years since he’s played an NHL game.
(Ya’ll have no idea how funny I think I am)
Lack of effort was never a problem with Zack. Lack of skill sure.
I’d take Huggi Bear any day.
Zorg!
As a Sasky, watching a Winnipeg team lose will never, EVER get old.
Great game.
That was a 5-1 in dressed up as a 4-3 win!
Kudos to pick for 2-3 solid saves afar the first period after a horrendous first.
He also got completely walked short handed and Bouchard saved him from letting in that backbreaker
Not possible – Bouchard can’t play defence.
You know I would never subscribe to that silly narrative!
I know – tongue in cheek comment was not attributed to you – just a general.
He looked like a statue there. In the next 10 seconds, Bouch was the difference between a win and a loss.
Totally. It was a full 4 pt swing there
I was also mad at watching the 4 on 2 completely evaporate with the drop pass to the trailer but it obviously worked out
As a Jack Michaels defender, Good Lord, is he ever laying it on thick. We don’t a minute by minute update on how many shots the Jets don’t have.
I do 🙂
Big if, but if Cal gets the win, some loud beakers gonna get fed some crow by a known 3rd period team.
I don’t think anyone’s eating crow. The way Picks won that game is by his team not allowing any Winnipeg shots for over a period. He stole the last Winnipeg game and his team paid him back tonight.
🙂
I reject this narrative 🙂
For making five additional saves?
Go on.
What are you talking about? They won in spite of him.
We talk a lot about the Oilers making their goalies look bad, but not enough about the goalies this season making the team look bad. The kids didn’t deserve -2.
Pickard has 4/16 games where his save percentage has been above .900. And one of the 12 sub .900 games was .889. The rest, including tonight, weren’t even in the ballpark of .900
The Jets had 5 shots on net after the first period.
No crow required.
Credit to the team in front of Cal for battling back and dominating a fragile team to overcome the 2 goal deficit, even after pushing hard for most of the 2nd with nothing to show for it
Clear to see Savoie getting the bump on taking on some of Henrique’s duties – PK notably.
Hell of a PK battle win and dish down low by Savoie.
Looks like the best way to prevent a goal on Picks is not to let the other team get a shot… we should have tried that earlier.
Been thinking the same thing. But now it’s going to be a little harder.
Hockey basics: don’t let the other team get a shot on goal. Nice to see the Oilers F making a big effort tonight.
ps. What goalie recently said this?
“It was incredible. I’m not too sure of the number of blocked shots (13), but I would imagine it was high. I mean, anytime you get [inly] 12 shots [agaibst] in a game against a really good team like that. I mean, that’s very impressive by the guys that played in front of me,” said Xxx. “It tells you how well we played defensively. We didn’t give them anything all night. So, yeah, it made my night really easy.”
Our own B-10 Bomber swoops in on the Jets to reign down blows from on high.
Best PP in the history of the game
How shoots Bouch? Hard!
That was some seriously bad luck for Winnipeg. And Bouch saved it then buried it!
The Jets have to fire Arniel.
But Chevvy bought the groceries.
The team was fine under Bowness.
Great shot Hyman
Hyyyyymannnnn, Nice Shot!
A good shot, man.
Zack goes Hy, Man!
Beautiful snipe by Hyman 10 second after Hyman with an awful read on that 2 on 1.5 – just terrible positioning. He’s had a crap game but what a shot.
Agreed. One shot can make up for a lot of ‘fighting it’
Stu is finding his groove in Pittsburgh.
I hope so! I’ll never wish that guy ill will.
No ill will towards Stu, it was just time to move on. He’ll get flipped to a contender at the deadline. Then it’s up to him to prove he has the chops to make the big saves when it matters the most. Can he lead a team to a championship without losing the net? I don’t think that he can but time will tell.
The east is wide open. Pittsburgh may have as good a chance as anybody.
100% I just don’t think that Stu has it in him, mentally, to keep the net when the pressure is at it’s peak.
Interesting. Until his team flailed in front of him in Games 5&6 SCF 2025 his record of winning in deciding Games 5,6,7 was being celebrated. It’s one of the reasons the Penguins wanted him: his winning playoff record (and one of the reasons they traded Jarry away, his losing playoff record).
To be fair, all Dubas really just wanted to get rid of Jarry’s contract without retention. Everything else was gravy.
Helly’s groin got grabbed and twisted.
Sometimes that’s good thing. Depending on the severity of the twist.
McDavid is a real jet on ice.
Filthy!
Frederic should get an assist on that goal for getting in that fight.
[/s]
I literally whispered to myself “Jesus McDavid”.
What hands (and foot).
Yep, HH is correct, no way could Connor ever be viewed as most valuable to his team….LOL
If Connor was not on this team we would be a lottery team for sure…
All players coming into the league should have to change their first name if their parents named them Connor.
There is only one Connor!
Huuuuuge goal to give the Peg some doubt coming into third!
Tough run tonight for Pickard in a season that hasn’t gone his way. If this is goodbye (in the next few weeks), I will remember his time with the Oilers fondly. He gave everything. Hope there’s a lovely swan song.
Maybe an appearance at the Spengler?
Me too. I am a fan of the team first. I wish Pickard was better, and his work in the playoffs these past 2 years was truly invaluable. I am very grateful for him for that.
Retire with a few million in the bank is pretty good for a career backup.
You can see the potential of the 3rd line in the ozone and the danger in the dzone..
Pickard not at all engaged in this game. He looks a few steps behind. Did someone tell him before the game he’d be traded or waived in coming days or the opposite. He looks like he could care less. Usually he at least looks like he’s battling.
Get that clown out of the net already.
Calm down Connor.
I think im calm enough Karen.
Good ice in Winnipeg in January should not be a difficult thing. But the ice does not look like it is very good, considering all the slips, falls & wonky bounces.
3rd line all around 76% expected goals and 0-2 real goals.
The Pickard effect
Howard-Roslovic-Savoie may have generated more offense in the last two games than Rico and any linemates had in the last two months.
Howard slinging pucks around the ice. On the tape four times in the last two shifts.
Confidence is a beautiful thing.
Putting 3 very good, offensive players on a line. Whodathunkit?
Agreed. Faceoffs in dzone are less satisfactory though. Not a NHL centre on that line currently.
A very friendly schedule for the rest of the year to let Roslovic figure it out.
I am shocked that coach didn’t change goalies for 2nd period….
Accepting loss after 1 period. Not a good look for the coach.
Ingram getting a game toward the 10 game threshold should be a not-factor.
Pickard gets waived when Jarry is ready, end stop – even if Ingram remains waivers exempt.
This team too often makes decisions not based on winning
If I understand it correctly, Ingram is on an emergency recall. He gets 9 games, waivers exempt. He hits the 10 game mark and he then needs to clear waivers?
Correct.
For as hard as the players seem to play for Pickard every now & agai6, you’d think he would want to play hard for them too.
That was 2 goals from lazy plays. Eat a rebound, push hard post to post, something. I rarely go off on a goalie, but that was a couple of very poor goals against.
The TSN feed is sublime.
Forget the peerless coverage between intermissions, hosted by the perennially elite James Duthie.
What I appreciate most is the professionalism in their play by play coverage. Minimal banter. Relevant but not superfluous stats/facts on players who are involved in the play. They marvel at the skill play of WPG or EDM as it transpires, and are critical of poor play either way in real time.
Neutral observation, with conversational flow. Judging by their competition, it’s harder than TSN lets on.
My first time listening to this Dan Robertson fellow. He’s good.
Sawyer’s an improvement on DeBrusk, but that’s not a high bar to clear.
Caveat about a pull – Ingram coming in would count towards his max 9 games before he would need to clear waivers.
Of course, zero chance they can send him down, even without waivers, giving how superior a goalie he is to Pickard.
You could tell on the very first shot that went off the outside of the post where Pickard looked 3 seconds behind that he is going to have one of his atrocious games.
The pull should have been made after the 2nd or 3rd goal, the fact he’s not pulled is requiring the Oilers to score 7-8 to win.
xGF are 1.29-0.76 for Winnipeg.
At the time of the 3-1 goal, xGF was 0.961-0.755, basically what should have been a tie game.
Not saying the Oilers have been world beaters, but it is unacceptable play.
So, in one period, Pickard is -1.50 expected GA.
Thank you for providing statistical back-up for my eye test.
lol. 2 goals against certainly should not have happened. I didn’t love his positioning on the first (“no chance” said Louie, I disagree), and there was some good and bad outside of that.
That 3rd goal was Skinneresque.
The second was directly from the House of Stu.
I hear Ullmark is available lol What a gong show scenario here in the Nation’s Capital
Yes but he is beloved in the room. So he gets to play terribly with no accountability. I mean, I like him too but hard to defend his play this year and think the Oil can overcome his goalering on the nightly..
I would imagine winning would be better for morale than having Pickard