Lots of chatter about Josh Brown making the Edmonton Oilers roster this fall, and the veteran defensemen has some things that make him unique. He is 6.05, 217, has a tremendous wingspan and is tough as nails. Please read this.
The last time he played enough for us to trust the sample, the radar was clocking him in the 61st percentile in max speed. He was just a little below average the following year. If the Oilers were trying to get Vincent Desharnais, and want that player style available every night, Brown fits the description.
However, big and strong doesn’t always mean good. Desharnais was 50 percent goal share (and 50 percent expected) one year ago with the San Jose Sharks. Brown was at 50 percent in his last full season but just 43 percent expected.
Let’s look at last season’s Condors defensemen and five-on-five goal share:
- Damien Carfagna 57
- Beau Akey 57
- Condors average 51
- Josh Brown 47
- Atro Leppanen 47
- Alec Regula 45
- Riley Stillman 45
- Cam Dineen 44
Brown is in the pack of players who are below par (I didn’t include all defensemen, the AHL contracts and part timers are not listed here). Damien Carfagna and Beau Akey posted strong seasons, and Brown was better than several recall options (Stillman, Dineen) but that doesn’t mean he can play in the NHL and deliver a goal share over 50 percent.
Remember, these numbers aren’t saying he can’t defend. They are saying he won’t contribute to outscoring. Do you remember Kris Russell? He routinely had the lowest (or close) GA-60 and SA-60 when with the Oilers (at five-on-five). However, there was no offense of note. Russell would flip the puck out and live to fight another day, but that day came immediately as the opponent gathered the puck.
In a real way, we are going to find out if Stan Bowman and Mike Babcock are serious about winning in 2026-27. Bowman has done a pretty nice job of gathering eight notable defensemen. If the team loses one of them to waivers because Josh Brown is on the team, I’m going to call that inefficient use of talent.
On the Lowdown today, Steve Lansky will be our feature guest and we’ll talk about the Elks being 4-1 and the Oilers with spending money. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Does Edmonton Oilers prospect Quinn Hutson have an NHL future?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7433424/2026/07/10/edmonton-oilers-quinn-hutson-nhl-prospect/
I keep hoping to hear about QH’s skating, that the skating gene his brother carries is truly a family thing. Is this a thing for him?
It hasn’t been so far. He’s not the slowest skater but he’s in the bottom 50% in the 4 games he played so far.
He’s a lot behind Howard https://www.nhl.com/nhl-edge/comparisons/skaters/Quinn-Hutson-8485511/20252026/2/Isaac-Howard-8483455/20252026/2
Thanks. What impresses me about Lane Hutton’s skating isn’t so much the speed as what I believe might be called “edge work?” Is there a metric for that?
Quinn Hutson exceeded my expectations in his first year pro – he was a very very good AHL player. Started off on fire, had a couple lulls but, overall, an excellent AHL player.
I see him as an NHL tweener – end stop.
He could probably come in and provide some relatively safe minutes on an energy fourth line – similar to a James Hambln, without the center ability at the pro level, but. don’t see him being much more.
I hope to be wrong but that’s my view.
Staple him to McD and watch him bloom!
jk. Those days are over (I hope).
Wouldn’t it be something though if he could catch lightning for 10 games on a top line and be pumped and dumped as part of a trade package?
Has that happened, the pump and dump? This millenium? Can’t think of any GM but Slats who sold high on a small sample.
I sometimes dream of what the Oil coulda nabbed for moving all of Cogs Samwise and Nilsson in one transaction 2007 summer. 3 for 1. Pretty sure someone back when woulda coughed up a franchise player or foundation piece for what the league then imagined that trio to offer. Especially after that late season run with Pitkanen.
(and whoever comes back sign Glencross ffs)
From an interview with Podkolzin “What I didn’t like was that when we were in a tough spot, there wasn’t a person who stepped up and took on the leadership role. I didn’t do it, for example. Other players needed to step up in order to grow, but that didn’t happen”
Where were the Team leaders McDavid And Draisaitl . It makes sense that Connor wanted Perry to come back to do this job ,,That I suppose also played into the coaching decision
Maybe we should change some of the letters . Eklund ? Murphy ? Hyman?
Kris Russell contributed to out-scoring with the Oilers.
4 of his 6 seasons were above 50 GF% or positive REL. By raw GF% his 16-17 & 21-22 seasons were very good at 55% and 56%. His REL was best in 18-19 at 6.68.
Where he didn’t measure well was in xGF% and CF%. And if you believe there’s more than one way to skin a cat, and out-scoring isn’t coincidence or goaltending, that likely doesn’t matter.
He was a legit NHL defender, particularly if one considers the way he contributed on the PK where he often saw a lot of TOI.
New numbers for the new Oilers:
6 – Shea
21 – Joseph
27 – Levi
30 – Andersen
85 – Mukhamadullin
Mukhamaklimallin
27 for Levi, that’s got to be the first goalie to wear Semenko’s number, no?
Odd choice. Bet Matty doesn’t approve; the training camp scrums could get a little salty.
First Oilers goalie to wear 27 for sure. He did wear it when he was with Buffalo though.
How Much Time should PP1 Get?
I see the argument for giving a real unit 2 more opportunities as this could help players build confidence in their 5v5 games but our powerplay 1 is record breaking and don’t want to hurt ourselves.
What the numbers say.
On average pp1 scored in 56 seconds.
25% of the goals came first 30 seconds
26.7% in the last half of the first minute
33.3% from 1-1:30
And 15% over 1:30
80% of their goals occur before 1:20
What’s the balance for keeping the great success of unit 1 but giving other guys more roles. Obviously game scenarios and playoffs change things so can’t be a hard set rule always
I’d still probably leave McDrai and Bouch out there the whole time and maybe swap in other guys for Hyman and Nuge half way through.
Would be nice to get Savoie and Howard some time. With the move toward a shut down 3 line i dont think we have enough skill guys for a decent PP2 without McDrai and Bouch. With Henrique, Skinner, Arvi etc it made more sense IMO.
Yeah I like the idea. I think podz could rotate net front. Howard and Savoie I would like to see get looks. And Walman is good on the powerplay but also Bouch is elite so feel he would be fine to stay the full amount.
A strong opinion from Mike Commodore if anyone wants to listen to the first 20 minutes of this link as he discusses his views about M Babcock
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UaZK15mI1Y&t=33s
Commodore played seventeen games total under Babcock in the 11-12 season.
He was traded to Tampa during February of that season and his NHL career effectively ended at that point.
Not to disregard Commodore’s stories of Babcock. I just think this is important context regarding Commodore’s views.
Abusing one person is wrong it is not a function of numbers don’t you think
donkeyboy put it well. Do you remember how bitter Whitney was when the Oilers were done? He’s since changed his mind
MB has been a dink yes. I don’t like that type of thing. But too much hyperbole for me, same as with SB
Too much conflating with much worse things done personally
As we are all fans of the oil and are therefore destined to wear rose coloured glasses at times I do hope you are all right because if you aren’t it means some young hockey players are going to pay a price that may effect them for sometime to come
Mike Commodore is the number 1 Mike Babcock hater – he has been so for a decade. He has been loud and crude on this for as long as I can remember.
deleted portion of this comment. -LT
LT, may I ask why the rest the comment as deleted?
It was a tweet put out there by Commodore a few days ago that I think provides some real and legit context to this comment thread….
It was part of a tweet that advanced a speciific claim, and this blog does not engage in that kind of thing. Please respect the blog. Thanks.
Gregor is talking about Ike. I had a look at this stats. It leads me to think if he’s had a good summer he has a solid chance to stick at some point this season
U of Minnesota GP 35 G 6 A 11 PTS 17
Michigan State GP 36 G 8 A 28 PTS 36
Michigan State GP 37 G 26 A 26 PTS 52
Condors GP 47 G 24 A 26 PTS 50 PIM 12
That was quite the progression at MSU. Then he kept rolling in the AHL keeping similar production in a tougher and rougher league. Impressive, the Bolts saw something in him as this is post draft
Oilers GP 29 G 2 A 3 PTS 5 PIM 12
What I like here is the 12 PIM and that he produced something. The kid has jam and that matters
NST
FF% 46.05
SF% 51.09
GF% 36.36
xGF% 43.76
HDCF% 42.70
HDGF% 57.14
ON ICE SH% 6.84 (Lower end)
PDO .943
OFF ZONE FACEOFF% 57.26
These stats involve other player that he was playing with. Some aren’t great, but it’s not certain what was his doing. So to me the SF% and HDGF% stand out and are good. And the Faceoff% because wingers have a lot to do with FO wins. It’s right there with Savoie and Podz
He has speed and a shot that can beat goalies. He is very confident and has some jam. I think the stage isn’t going to be too big for him, and I think he’s highly motivated to get his NHL career going
The F logjam might mean the A to start, I expect he won’t be there long, and once he gets more reps he’s going to start taking off as he has done in the past, like Holloway is like
My recollection of his penalties were they came from over-exuberance on the forecheck or over-compensation on back-check, trying to create turnovers or recover from turnovers. But I’m old and might be confusing him with someone else.
Hopefully rookie stuff that gets ironed out. He seems like he has the IQ, definitely has skill, so he should be able to figure out upper-level puck management to reduce turnovers and how to take smarter routes and be a bit more patient defensively.
I also hope that he learns. I like that he has the cajones to assert. It’s easier to teach temperaments than wanting to go
Issac Howard will not be the same player this October as he was last October – he worked his ass off as a Condor and developed a much stronger “away from the puck game”, positionally, battle level – as Bowman said “Impact without the puck”.
There is no reason not to try him in the Oilers top six, I mean, they have ONE true established top 6 producer in Hyman.
Ha, that made me laugh out loud!
Gold, Jerry
Your cat’s expression giving BS the appropriate response for the Brown bs he’s peddling.
I wonder if stashney and regula would clear waivers and start in the A.
Then brown could be the extra d till an injury happens while not playing any games.
Probably not the worst thing for stash and regula to get top pair Ahl minutes.
The oil will likely need 8 or 9 nhl dmen this year.
Edit. And bling beat me to it.
If Stastney isn’t traded he probably will see waivers and be reassignment to Bakersfield.
I could see divisional teams with higher than average # of waiver ineligible players on 23 man roster and could use added seasoned and aged at or slightly ahead of core forwards but lagging on defenseman core included:
Will surely be taking a long look at all free to add waiver dman. Robbing in division depth added positive.
They would have to waive/trade Shakir for Brown to be 7D. Shakir requires waivers
this is how I see it, with Stastney either being waived or traded
Ek Bouch
Walman Murphy
Shea Emberson
Shakir
Almost for sure unless someone is/gets hurt or is really bad at camp
Shakir is actually more comfortable on his off side.
Emberson will be vulnerable.
There is zero chance either Shakir or Emberson are waived.
Emberson is 100% not vulnerable – zero chance of waivers.
If you think Emberson is vulnerable I’d like to sell you some ocean front property in the Florida Everglades. This is just ignorant.
Shakir has much higher upside.
In what way and by what measure? Are they playing the very same role and applying for the same spot?
One is left handed and the other is right handed. You made the sweeping statement the other day saying the Shakir is comfortable playing on his offside. Is that parroting others or have you actually watched video of him playing?
Pretty bold to make that claim with no evidence to back it up.
This is true and its has nothin to do with potentially waiving Emberson – they are both in the clear top 7.
Oh jeez. I forgot Shea.
Regula might pass through waivers but I doubt Stastney would (or that it would even be their plan). I’d bet on either Stastney being traded or an injury during camp makes him the 7D.
Stastney had no issue passing thru waivers in Nashville. While things could certainly change, I don’t think he showed enough to merit unless a team is having injury issues and nees a 7th d-man. I like his skating but his game has a lot of meh.
He really needs to play more at the NHL level, but even so, 3rd pairing looks to be his ceiling.
I don’t think Stastney has ever been waived…..
He was waived in the 24-25 season and had to clear.
I think he was still waivers exempt at that time.
Stastney and Regula are likely both on waivers, in addition to Brown, with Emberson and Shakir as 6D/7D.
A trade of Stastbey out is a potential (as Stauff keeps alluding to) but those two (plus Brown) are clearly on the outside looking in if they are healthy.
I think Regula clears (he did last year), likely Stastney as well but there is some waivers risk (on both) – Stastey at $1.5MM might be some waivers protection.
I’m pretty sure Anaheim will claim any defencemen we try sneak through waivers.
After Lacombe and Mintyukov, they’ve got 3 guys who spent time in the AHL. The newly signed 35 year old Nick Jensen was in the bottom pair (6th in TOI) last year in OTT so it’ll be challenging to see him take on 2nd pair minutes for the Ducks. They’ve subtracted Zellweger, Trouba, Gudas and John Carlson from their defence since the end of last season.
Nope. They’re about to weaponize their cap space. I’ve been told.
Anaheim might need to claim a d-man waived near league min, rather that double league min.
Stastney’s contract provides some waiver protection.
I’ve been studying those Leafs teams of the late 2010s.
I don’t buy that Babcock will be a huge fan of Brown. Those Leafs teams were populated by guys like Rielly, Gardiner, Marincin, Hainsey, Carrick, Holl, etc.
I’m not saying it’s a murderer’s row and for sure Dubas and the front office played a big part in procurement.
But to me none of those guys are Brown types, even amongst the depth guys. If Brown were to be a feature depth player, I’d even go as far to say it would be highly out of character for Babs.
On the other hand, LT, perhaps having Carfagna/Regula/Statsney playing big minutes in the A is preferable when the injury bug hits.
I think it’s about the ability to get the job done rather than style. Nick Lidstrom was a little short and slim for a R and averaged about a hit every three games. There is more than one way to defend the house just have to be consistent at it
But that was Lidstrom. It’s hard for smaller D players to make it without elite skill, and he rough waters of playoffs can cause even them trouble
Oh great Josh Brown is about to get the Frankie Corrado treatment, a talent allowed to fall through the cracks without ever getting a fair shake that ends with his career in the KHL.
That Mike Babcock I tell you what.
Josh Brown is horrific even to contemplate
Is there such a thing as signing a terrible, untradeable contract anymore?
Elias Pettersson likely gets traded in the next year. The tax on Vancouver will be maybe a couple million per. Nothing crippling.
Chandler Stephenson’s contract is often cited as a desperate UFA overspend. Really? He’s make a nice 3C on a good team for not much more than we’re paying JD.
Of course the enragingly bloated Darnell Nurse contract was moved … for value!?
Ok Ok – Huberdeau is still an awful, putrid, franchise-sewering contract. The Flames have to lead the league at something, right?
The cap inflation sure puts a new perspective on the economics of the league.
Right now bad legacy contracts are not so bad bcs of big jumps in the cap. At some point the cap isn’t going to jump ~10% each year, and as new deals get done there will be some hard to move ones again. Right now it’s sort of a get out of jail free scenario
Contract efficiency will always be important, but a bad contract or two are papercuts in comparison with the Lucic, Kassian, and Campbell dead weight of the past.
Frederic’s is bad but digestible. I didn’t love the Dickinson deal but it won’t cause me any anguish.
The flat cap or low increases were a problem in that regard for sure. I think those types of contracts will emerge again when cap inflation levels out. I don’t think these large increases can go on long term
I don’t remember if there are any revenue (broadcast) deals coming up, and expansion fees go to the clubs not revenue I believe. I don’t see them creating any big jumps in revenue in the near future
It’ll be interesting to see if any of this years crazy contracts are immovable by years end.
A few career third pairing older dmen getting 4+ with term?
mang required an add to move with only a year left.
Edit. I see SS said something similar while I was typing.
Committing to a true shutdown line at the bottom of the depth chart gives the coach options in matchups.
As always with this team, it’s the delta between not bleeding too much when 97 29 are at rest and the elevation of the stars because they aren’t playing as tough of minutes.
If we want a line-matching coach, hard minutes and PK guys need to be able to take the tough minutes to get clean air.
With Dickinson in the fold the idea seems to be a Malhotra line with Salo and co taking hard minutes. TBD if they can hold the best off better than our stars can outscore.
What’s your idea of a shut down line? Obviously Dickinson then who?
Nuge & most likely Freddy.
That should work
Nuge and Podz, no?
Put Howard at 2LW where he’s best set up to succeed.
Of course, Podz can play 2LW but he can also play other roles.
Also, of course, they can always flip it at any time, right?
Waste of podz higher ceiling value if put in position to continue growing confidence and developing his offensive upside. You have an exceptionally strong developed chemistry between a center and a wing where you can likely place many options safely and line still solid outscores.
I don’t get the smartest man in room seeming plans to use make drai’s line less effective 200 ft because you need to add him to help 3rd line carry water in excess defensively.
Like there’s guys that can’t piss s drop on offence that can cover bet ofba buried in dzone draws shutdoen line winger IMO.
I don’t agree it’s a waste of a ceiling at all. Podz can play up and down the lineup and he, in no way, needs to be locked in as Drai’s winger. We don’t know that would decrease Drai’s effectiveness – for all we know Howard could score 30 on Drai’s left wing and Podz helps a Dickinson line create some offence so it and outscore against elites.
I’m not saying that has to last forever and they can always go back to previous successful combos at any time.
If you put Dickinson with two guys that can’t piss a drop and that line plays tough match-up minutes, they are going to end up at 41% goal share and its not going to work.
No.
Podz & Leon are an item.
Thing is Podz with anyone is an item. Such a versatile useful player. I could see him play wherever needed.
Maybe howard drai Kap for example to get the most out of two other players while Podz adds more to the third line than either of those two would.
Nice to have actual NHL players to move around the lineup.
They don’t have to be exclusive.
I’m also OK with Howard on McDavid’s wing (although I think he and Drai could be perfect matches) and have Savoie with Dickinson – Podz seems like a better match against the big elites though.
Josh Brown was excellent early last season – the Condors’ best dman for the first third of the season, to my eye. He did fade and Carfagna and Regula led the team down the stretch.
That’s the issue, imo. He was not even dominating consistently in the AHL.
Frankly, it is distasteful to me to speak badly of a guy trying to live his hockey dream, but an organization that wants to win should not be giving time to Josh Brown when they have better players at all levels.
Bob did walk back his statement in Josh Brown “being a feasible option to make the team” and qualified it with “if a d-man or two is moved out”.
I think Bob agrees with the rest that he’s being Stastney and Regula on the depth chart.
Bob continues to suggest the Oilers could move out a “dman in the $1.5MM range”, so Stastney is the name of getting a forward.
I often wonder how much of what Bob says is situational. Like, Stastney & Mukhamadullin haven’t signed yet, talk up Brown to put pressure on them. They sign, “well…..is Brown really that good……”.
It’s like all of the trial balloons that get sent out that don’t quite make sense and never really happen. Are they for us, the fans, or are they to spin a narrative for some other negotiation.
This is a good point, and honestly the only explanation that makes sense. Now how does it explain Bob’s recent obsession with playing McDrai together?
Of note, the new coaching staff all but said they will play together at 5 on 5 – no, not full time but certainly for stretches at home……..
Maybe he learned how to skate, pass and shoot the puck over the summer. The only reason they would want him on the team would be to punch faces. So maybe he doesn’t need to skate, pass and shoot the puck.
I think that the team has been looking for at least a part-time face puncher for awhile. Maybe they move Brown to wing on the 4-Line for the games where they want one 🤣
They should just trade for Mathieu Olivier. Get a guy that is feared and can play
I’d settle for Mark Kastelic. He’d be the RHed 4c the team needs. He’s 8 years younger than Deslaurier and at 6’4″ 234, I think he can handle himself, scored 12 goals & 10 assists in 82 games for the Bruins last year.
That would do
I like this
As I’m looking up stats Wow, he looks impressive. He is fast for such a big guy, wins FO’s and PK’s .And he likes the rough stuff
and likely valued as such by Columbus who wouldn’t move him for anything less than Podz, and they might not even do that, right?
Might not for sure
Today’s Broad Bullies have returned in Florida. Oilers either allow Connor and Leon to get mauled-injured or they do something about it. Bowman better wise-up and keep adding functional toughness..
If only Clatt could focus on the functional part…..
I think Babs would use Brown in this capacity, call him up for a game against asshat teams. KK seemed to never want to go there. Maybe a much better PK will give the team some punching room to assert a much greater degree of toughness. Nobody else on the D Depth chart brings that element, so I can see it happening on some nights, and would welcome it, and watch with much anticipation. Maybe he uses Clattenburg instead. Frederick and Dach play that role too. Babs will give guys roles, we know that. I am looking forward to it, it’s about time. 2 scoring lines, a checking line, and an “energy” line. Then again, maybe I’m just old…
If Clatt can up the hockey side of his game a line of Clatt Fred Dach would be a handful for any team.
Probably would only happen with a few injuries combined with Clatt playing a few months of good hockey in the A.
If the Oilers are calling up a face-puncher before a game, they are already in the wrong mind-set, and icing an inferior lineup, heading in to that game – right?
I guess it’s a matter of opinion. I don’t agree taking that action is a sign the are in the wrong mind-set. We have stars to protect… If Brown (or some other face-puncher) over Emberson (or some other depth player) for a game here and there is going to sink the season, then our line-up is truly awful (it’s not). All options and weapons need to be considered for any given opponent. The team the coach ices vs the Avs or Canes should not be the same as the team iced vs the Knights, Panthers or Flames.
How do you think Brown protects the stars. Brown running around trying to get some sort of retribution is only going to help the opposition and likely encourage them.
Best way to protect the stars is to have a lethal pp. Also to have a great pk so drai can use his stick when necessary.
I think it’s fair to say the following:
More than fair – correct.
Don’t even need waivers, players better than Brown are available from the Condors, like Carfagna.
Carfagan was a much more impactful d-man in the second half of the year.
I hope he starts the year strong and he’ll jump on the call up depth chart.
I don’t know that I mind the farm having a face puncher.
1) Yes
2) Not at all – the AHL lineup is half ECHL call-ups for lots of the year. Brown is a solid veteran leader down there and the Condors and the org benefit from having him
3) Yes – like Stastney and Regula this coming October (unless there is a trade or IR injury).
It’s probably just because I’m a dog guy, but I miss the days when the post photo was a fetching shot of Audrey Hepburn or Julie Christie.
I have good memories of Oklahoma for no particular reason…
Where the winds come sailing down the plain…
That photo has its own bust now in the cleavage Hall of Fame.
It’s funny, I was thinking the exact thing last night. Waiting years for the great balance reveal!
Balance = Grace Kelly
Love dogs, adore cats but warming-up pole vaulters won me over every time… what does it all mean???
My heavens Julie Christie was a looker.
I would always watch Noir movies where the beautiful woman convinces a man to kill for her and think, “No man would be that dumb” and then I saw Julie Christie.
We are, truly, simpletons who love nothing better than simple choices: if you kill my husband… (slow wink)
“He’s a dead man.”
—Garth Algar
An Audrey Hepburn mention?
The most beautiful and amazing woman ever to walk the Earth (next to a legion of Moms)
You’re a damn good man!
Excellent descriptor LT. Didn’t we start him in the playoffs a couple years ago and the realized it was a terrible decision less than 5 minutes in?
Yup.
Brown is overpaid by about 1 million is all I have to say.
That’s the most accurate assessment of Kris Russell ever. Zadorov for Nurse would have been a fantastic fit for this roster.
Zadorov is so interesting to me. He had a couple of good seasons in Calgary and a monster of a playoffs when he was in Vancouver and they played Edmonton but has been otherwise just a really big defensive defenseman that doesn’t provide excessively good value beyond killing other players and taking a minor penalty every second game while leading the league in PIMs.
There is value in having a Zadorov, I just don’t know that it’s worth $5M for another 4 years.
I don’t think the Zadarov deal would have been terrible (my first instinct was “thank god he blocked it” but, I did a bit of research on him and he’s very fast and can prevent goals still), however, I like the bet on Ryan Shea plus Shakir has a real chance to be a top 4 in due course and a prospect that, while he’s a distant bell, was a hard target of Bowman so he sees something.
I’ve heard the discussion of Brown & find it mystifying. He wasn’t good enough for a recall last year, why would he be good enough this year? Did he get younger, Benjamin Button style?
No. Just more summertime bs from BS. Doing his job, stoking up conversations and ire on the sports pages, the radio waves, and the “old Al Gore.”