Many Oilers fans are expressing the belief the team’s roster can be written in ink from here. Of course, we know injuries will take a toll, and some of the veterans will have lost a step. A young player may have spent the summer running up hills, another may have gotten his eyes checked (hel-LOW Alexei Mikhnov!) and still others may have matured a little. Please read this.
That last one can be a major lift for a young player. We’ve seen it many times over the years and I expect it could happen this fall. Do you remember Shawn Horcoff in the fall of 2000? What about Dylan Holloway in the 2022-23 preseason?
In the 2016-17 Toronto Maple Leafs previews published just before the campaign began, there was much talk about new coach Mike Babcock’s roster. It was young, very young, but the team had two new goaltenders (Frederik Anderson, Jhonas Enroth) to ease the pain. Enroth would play his final NHL game November 30th of that year. Peter Holland centered a line with Matt Martin and Connor Brown in the first game of the year. He would play 8 games with the team. Martin Marincin played 20 minutes opening night, played 24 more games the rest of the season.
I know you know the contracts and what the coach told you, but there’s a reckoning on all known things. Same as it ever was.
One player I was looking at today is Matt Savoie. The reason I was looking at his numbers is that his play next season is going to be pretty important. Is he a guy with something like a Yamamoto ceiling? Is there a modest progression coming, or a much bigger spike?
One thing that immediately jumped out wasn’t just that he played a lot of premium minutes with McDavid, or that his most common D were Bouchard and Ekholm. It was who he DIDN’T play with. The Oilers really did him a favour by keeping him away from the offensive wasteland.
The contrast with McLeod’s final Edmonton season is pretty striking:
5v5 TOI WITH McLeod 23-24 Savoie 25-26
——————————————————-
Connor McDavid 33 min 337 min
Evan Bouchard 205 min 388 min
Mattias Ekholm 210 min 382 min
Leon Draisaitl 186 min 194 min
Zach Hyman 54 min 100 min
Mattias Janmark 158 min 23 min*
*Janmark only played 43 games last season, but 23 minutes together is still pretty remarkable.
McLeod’s most common forward linemate was Warren Foegele at 470 minutes.
So Savoie got roughly TEN TIMES as much McDavid as McLeod did, and almost twice as much Ekholm/Bouchard. At the other end, he barely saw Janmark and several of the other depth forwards.
None of this means Savoie is a bad player or didn’t earn the promotion. But I think it matters when looking at 18-19-37 and trying to project what comes next. The Oilers gave him a massive push and a very favourable environment.
The question for me is how much offence Savoie himself is going to drive as he develops. I still don’t see an elite tool. He’s a decent skater and playmaker, and he gets himself into good spots around the net, but the shot is an omelette.
We’ve seen this movie before with Yamamoto. The interesting question next season is whether this is the same movie, a modestly better remake, or whether Savoie has a much bigger gear.
One thing that really jumps out when you compare Savoie’s deployment to old Oilers development philosophy is Ryan Strome.
Strome was 24, a former 5th overall pick, and had just been acquired for Jordan Eberle. You would think the obvious move would have been to spend a season finding out whether there was more offence there.
Instead, Edmonton basically buried him in the middle/bottom six.
At 5v5 in 2017-18, Strome played:
McDavid — 56 min
Draisaitl — 194 min
Nugent-Hopkins — 105 min
But then:
Khaira — 263 min
Puljujarvi — 238 min
Lucic — 216 min
Caggiula — 207 min
Cammalleri — 175 min
Slepyshev — 150 min
Pakarinen — 72 min
Kassian — 69 min
Only 56 minutes with McDavid all season.
Contrast that with Savoie:
McDavid — 337 min
Bouchard — 388 min
Ekholm — 382 min
And very little time with Edmonton’s offensive wasteland.
That is an enormous philosophical difference.
The old Oilers approach seemed to be: “Here’s a bunch of deadweight. Produce your way into premium minutes.”
With Savoie, the approach has almost been the reverse: “Here are McDavid, Bouchard and Ekholm. Let’s put you in the best possible environment and see how high you can go.”
Frankly, I think the Savoie approach is the smarter development philosophy. The irony is that Edmonton appears to have figured this out only after guys like Strome and McLeod had already passed through the organization.
Strome is a particularly painful example because the Oilers never really tested the upside case. They tested whether he could survive with Khaira, Lucic, Caggiula and company.
Then somebody else eventually found out he could score.
My recollection, was that LT had argued, while he was still Oilers property, that the Oilers shouldn’t trade Strome until they had given him a chance with McDavid.
He later went on to play with Panarin in New York.
One thing that really jumps out when comparing Matt Savoie’s deployment to old Oilers development philosophy is Ryan Strome.
Before Edmonton traded Strome in 2018-19, his 5v5 deployment looked like this:
Strome 2018-19, Oilers only
Teammate 5v5 TOI
Milan Lucic 133.9
Drake Caggiula 70.6
Jesse Puljujarvi 68.8
Kailer Yamamoto 35.3
Jujhar Khaira 15.2
Ty Rattie 12.6
Tobias Rieder 12.2
Alex Chiasson 11.3
Cooper Marody 9.6
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 5.4
Leon Draisaitl 4.1
Connor McDavid 2.2
That is basically a crime scene.
Strome played almost 134 minutes with Lucic and barely two minutes with McDavid.
McDavid + Draisaitl + Nuge combined: only 11.7 minutes.
So before deciding Strome was expendable, Edmonton essentially never tested whether a 25-year-old former 5th-overall pick could produce with premium offensive players. They tested whether he could make something happen with Lucic, Caggiula and Puljujarvi.
McLeod?
The magical disappearing forward?
Move on, nothing to see here.
Let Buffalo’s usage of McLeod lessen the pain of his loss.
Softest player to ever play the game?
Close.
If he was more on the periphery, he’d be in the third row watching the game.
The definition of zoomed.
https://www.hockeyalpha.com/players/8483512
Coaches have no choice but to play the hand they’re dealt. Veteran coaches generally like veteran players, if available on the roster, and keep a close eye on rookies, or young players, for when the inevitable injury bug occurs. There aren’t many young players that can make the jump immediately to the NHL, but of course as we all know, there are the exceptions.
I see openings for a trio of young players, one being Matthew Savoie, who looks to be slated in the top six, the other two Josh Samanski & Colton Dach who look to be in competition for fourth line centre, although that could change. Who knows if Dach can play 4c? We may only see two younger types make the roster. I do like (Dach-Samanski-Frederic) for a fourth line combo but (Jones-Dach-Frederic) might grow on me too. However we don’t know how Mike Babcock views things as of yet.
Dach Samanski Frederic does not remotely look like a reliable 1-2-2 hard-on-the-puck-everywhere line.
Babcock believes in taking away time and space, more than rubbing out the opposition.
I think Samanski is well-suited to Babcock’s historical style of play That is why I see him between Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman.
I think he is going to want the Dickenson line to be able to take D zone starts, so Joseph and Janmark seem far more likely as wingers than Dach and Frederic.
McDavid is not exactly a reliable hard on the puck guy, so I think Babcock is going to give him the two hardest working two way wingers, in Podkolzin and Savoie.
This makes it easy for Babcock to integrate Howard into the lineup with Draisaitl, with Kapanen, Dach, and Frederic batting it out at right wing, and Kapanen is by far the best player when he decides to play. Draisaitl on a softer minutes line, also gives Babcock the flexibility to spot play him with McDavid, and to use him on D zone faceoffs.
Dach probably also has a good shot at beating out Janmark or Joseph on Dickenson’s line, or on LW with Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman if Samanski fails to seize the job.
With Hutson as the wildcard. Is he going to come to camp determined to take a spot?
I guess you are the only person that knows how the new coach will proceed. It nice to know someone has it all figured out. Good for you.
He’s provided a very smart hockey systems post, which I respect, but, at the same, time, Mike Babcock has never been married an exact structure and he also specifically said that he will be studying the league and what has worked and hasn’t worked over the last few year, in conjunction with his players to fine tune the details within the pressure system he will want his players to execute.
We know Babcock has reach out to likely all players (we know Dach and Frederic, or example, so I presume he’s made a point of the entire rounds. We know Babcock was in the office in mid and late July (so he’s in and he’s working).
This man will be prepared and he’ll be prepared in relation to today’s NHL and his roster and ready to put them in a position to succeed.
Well reasoned comments. I haven’t had opportunity to watch Hutson, looking forward to seeing if he can contribute this season.
I hope Samanski can succeed as a hard on the puck player you describe and skates well enough to take away time and space consistently at the NHL level.
Micheals has a better shot at making the team then Hutson.
Michaels has that right shot center thing but, no, being a very good “3rd line center” as an older college player consequeces to being a vast distant bell for the NHL and certainly not as a rookie pro.
You could be onto to something with him being a right shot centre. Half a season in the A and if he’s good in all situations Bowman will not be shy to call him up.
Coaches have no choice but to play the hand they’re dealt.
Happens all the time, we just forget. If Kris Knoblauch had played the hand he was dealt, he would still be coaching the Oilers imo. The most hilarious example of this in Edmonton was poor Jason Chimera.
The GM, Kevin Lowe, loved him. Made a point of sating “he’ll make the team this year” at the start of every training camp. Then MacT would cut him first chance. I think MacT didn’t like his hockey mind, but that’s a guess.
Chimera-Cleary-McLeod all over 200 pounds with cement like hands with blazing speed. McLeod will be in the league for a 1000 games just as Chimera had 1100 plus with Cleary just 60 short of the 1000 mark. Speed is premium it beats hockey sense and good hands. Mike Gartner is an example of having all three.
I’ve been thinking alot about what you said a couple of days ago, LT. The main cause of fan uncertainty heading into this season is the X factor that Babcock is, and that we really don’t have any current information on his practices that we can use for accurate speculation.
This is why I’ve been mostly silent too bc I really don’t know what to think about what’s going to happen. I respect the bravery of others making their predictions, I just don’t feel I can be as specific on what I think will happen. I’m glad it all starts earlier so we can get to know more sooner.
— yeah same. I don’t like the hire or the process that led to Babs, mostly because he was not a good coach 10 years ago when he was 10 years removed from being the stud coach in the league
— that he has many amazing players that have a lot of ill will and he pulled a lot of dick moves on veterans which shows a lack of respect is also not the kind of coach I cheer for.
— but we all have our biases and levels of fandom
— it surprises me though how certain many post about how Babcock is going to do this, he’s going to fix that he going to make the players do this these guys are now to excel under him because etc.
— Babs was done as a coach. He had no juice. Based on his press he doesn’t seem to think he needs to improve anything about his coaching or inter-personal management skills. Hockey has changed a lot since his last stint. As have the mindset of the stars vs when he was coaching
— But we really don’t know. Maybe his chip on his shoulder with something to prove means he works his tail off is all in and pulls it off.
— Certainly the core bought what he’s selling. But they are just hockey players.
— I have my doubts but I don’t know.
— Ir really is Cup or bust this year. Again. For real. Last chance. LFGOILERS
Babcock was a poor hire, for a multitude of reasons, even without the fact of getting pushed out of the league with CBJ.
Should be expected Oilers will make the playoffs, but doubtful on the run.
I think DJ Smith will take over shortly, but people are stubborn.
Well said .My feelings exactly.
I didn’t like the hire as well but what’s the alternative as an Oiler fan? We may only have 1 or 2 kick at the cat remaining with Connor-Bouchard in the fold. Trust me Babcock at his age is not going to change his techniques he uses. He’ll just be more careful-guarded on how to motivate certain players and be wary of social media and it’s power. I was hoping for a offence minded coach myself we have been down 40 goals overall the last few years by babying Skinner-Pickford-Ingram- I think the D.J hiring was smart move a little Ying to Babcock’s Yang. No doubt Andersen signed here because of Babs. Hyman was a youngster that was a borderline NHLer I would say he found his niche under Mike. I think as the season goes on you’ll quietly hear more praise from former players of his.
Cans! Two more kicks at the can.
No kicking of cats or dogs on the way to kicking the can (Cup).
Yes I love Cats. I meant to say Can but for some reason I wrote Cat.
Yes, this encapsulate alot of what I’ve been concerned about. As others have mentioned, I think DJ Smith is the ace in the hole that helps make the sum greater than the parts. I’m hopeful they come out as a team with a chip on their shoulder feeling they have something to prove, win the division and set themselves up for a cup run.
They will be much better prepared for each contests over the course of the regular season and I hope it carries over to the playoffs.
Rob Williams
@RobTheHockeyGuy
Al Strachan on the 100% Podcast with Jim Hughson and John Davidson reminiscing about the Satellite Hot Stove days on HNIC:
“We knew everything. Between the three of us, we knew everything that was going on.
“We knew which general manager had his vasectomy reversed, we knew which player had testicular cancer, we knew which player had an apartment downtown that his wife didn’t know about… there were certain things that we wouldn’t say.”
I liked Davidson as a color man and goalie especially when he dragged his team to the Final. When he stole the 1st game of the Final Habs fans were twitching.
Guerrero, Springer and Clements sitting for the Jays today. Valenzuela, Smith and McAdoo in their place. Seems like everybody has a role on this team. Is there anything here for the Oilers to learn?
The Jays show what’s possible when you have true depth.
Barger, Berrios, and Santander haven’t played at all this season and that never even gets mentioned. Now, Yessavage out with injury and Gausman traded and the team is still in contention. Impressive.
Hopefully Vladdy clears concussion protocol today and his bat starts heating up.
The Jays are a flat out bad baseball team. They are 29th in the majors in runs scored, don’t have a single position player who is hitting above the league average. They are not an example of having depth unless you consider that they have a lot of underperforming players.
To each their own – I watch pretty much every game (shit, I listened to the first 4 innings of today’s game on the radio driving back from Canmore.
They are a very meh team but they have some elite pitching and that’s fun to watch as well.
Yes. The jays talk about out teaming the other team. Oilers can learn something
Aren’t they tied for last place in the AL East?
The jays were within a game of winning the championship last year and this year they seem to have started to get some traction recently.
My comment was in reference to oilers learning to play as a team which I think has been missing. Carolina won the cup playing as a team. Every player was important to success.
While that is certainly true it bears stating the the Canes roster construction played a huge role in their success.
When your 3rd line centre plays 18 minutes per game and wins the Conn Smythe , your depth is exemplary.
Knoblauch did not allow the team to play as a team as he only used a portion of the roster while the rest wilted on the vine.
Will Babcock use his full roster like Roddy Boddy Piper or will Babcock also only use a portion of the roster.
Its not what can the Oilers learn, its what will the head coach do.
Technically 2nd last, but also 1 game out of a wild card spot. Glass half full!
The AL this year is the MLB version of the Pacific “pillow fight” Division.
Similarities between this year’s Jays and last season’s Oilers: deep championship runs followed by high expectations and injuries. Also, as with SCF teams who lose game, WS losers often stumble the next year (often don’t make playoffs).
As fans we expect millionaire athletes to somehow not be afflicted with disappointment, depression, frustration etc and to just f*kn win. Fan expectations of Oilers last year were, it turns out, unrealistic. Likely same for Jays fans this year. They’re essentially the same good team that went to game 7 last year, but they’re also the team that lost.
Stellar track selection, LT. Sonny Rollins’ sax solo on ‘Waiting’ puts me in my happy place every time. Simply sublime.
The video for that song, with the half-soused lads taking the stage in a seedy NYC bar is quintessential Stones as well.
How great were the Stones? Well, Tattoo You was culled from studio leftovers and outtakes at a point when Keef was in the final throes of heroin addiction and Jagger was barely speaking with him. The album is now widely considered a classic and it’s format, side 1 rock, side 2 mellow/soul has been hugely influential. When you’re truly great, even your B game gets the win.
I am one that has been express that the roster is close to set (all 3 goalies, all 7D and 10 of the 13 forward spots with only 5 players truly fighting for those 3 spots).
With that said, I have always qualified it by “subject to injury” which is someone a given.
For starters, I think its reasonably likely Janmark starts the season on IR saving a roster spot for one of the 5 candidates – there would be 4 candidates (Joseph, Jones, Howard, Samanski) for 3 roster spots (really, probably 3 candidates for 2 as Joseph is likely close to a lock).
There’s going to be one surprise regardless If the injury bug doesn’t appear before game one
Maybe, doubt it though.
There is not time for “try outs”.
I think we know this coaching staff will be implementing major system and structure changes, in all zones and in all game states (save maybe PP1). This coaching staff will be doing so while also forming relationships with the players and getting familiar with their games (more than they can get by watching tape).
The team is all but set (subject to those injuries) – I presume Babcock and Smith likely already have a very good idea of who fill those “open forward spots”.
Hutson and Clattenburg and Michaels and Tralmaks and Majala and Cafragna, etc. will want to show well they best they can in the skates and the one exhibition game each gets but none of them will be on the opening roster except, in Hudson’s case, if there are 2 injuries for IR in addition to Jamark, so 3.
Your description of 20 of 23 roster spots set coming into training camp, seems the norm for most seasons. If accurate, three spots up for grabs is still significant competition.
Ya, maybe but, practically, it may be down to which of Jones and Samanski they keep as I really think Joseph is close to a lock and tough to see them sending Howard down unless he shows up out of shape or lacking effort which would not be his MO.