A new coach means change. When Todd McLellan arrived in 2015-16, one of the players he had an issue with was Mark Fayne. Fayne surrendered the blue line instead of standing up and forcing the shoot-in, because he had to cheat in order to get back to retrieve the puck. His slower boots ended Fayne’s NHL career, just over one season after McLellan took over in Edmonton. McLellan much preferred Kris Russell, even on his off side. Fayne was a good defenseman. Honest.
You can see, McLellan used him versus elites (390 five-on-five minutes, via Puck IQ), in fact he was the top righthander on the club in minutes versus elites. He didn’t like the performance, and Fayne was sent to the minors for most of the following season.
Coaches get fired when they lose games often, so every coach elevates players who do the things they think are key to winning. For Babcock, it’s keeping the puck out of the net, and making sure there are enough bodies skating in a good direction defensively.
McLellan was pretty quick to dismiss Griffin Reinhart for similar reasons, but elevated Oscar Klefbom right away. Klefbom and Reinhart played about the same number of games that season, and McLellan handled them in an interesting manner. Here are the five-on-five numbers versus elites:
- Klefbom: 226 mins, 7:32 per game, 50 pct DFF, plus 10 percent rel
- Reinhart: 169 mins, 5:49 per game, 42 pct DFF, minus 4 rel
McLellan gave Reinhart a chance (those are impressive minutes versus elites for young players), but didn’t have time to piss around. Plus he did have better options than Reinhart.
If we apply the McLellan thinking to Babcock, I think we’ll see the new coach fade players who are injured (that would impact Jake Walman and Mattias Ekholm most, in my opinion) and he’ll play veterans over kids even if the veteran is not playing at optimal levels. But if he sees a Klefbom? Babcock will play him.
I think we’ll see an effort to increse urgency in making plays with the puck. Evan Bouchard, as good as he is, probably gets a push in situational awareness and peripheral vision. I think Jake Walman could play fewer than 40 games if his foot speed is low. I also think Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Shea could see heavy minutes at even strength and on the penalty kill. Candidates for recall are Damien Carfagna and Beau Akey if Babcock gets to see them in camp.
Babcock has never coached the Oilers, but one of his former coaches (McLellan) did it a decade ago. Expect quick and decisive action on all manner of players. Expect churn. Expect lots of comments on this blog expressing frustration over loyalty to veteran players who are struggling. But you should know he would play a young Klefbom if he had one. Pretty sure.
This is why Im strong on Samanski playing, Babcock is going to notice him doing all the things he wants done.
Samanski will play.
The sample was small but he established himself as a 4C that can be highly responsible and there is upside, both at 5 on 5 and and on the PK. He was good in the regular season, good in the Olympics, better in the playoffs and very good at the Worlds.
The arrows are up, he’s a strong defensive player with some offensive upside (led Bako in 5 on 5 scoring at the time of call-up) and he can play the PK and become an elite PK guy I think.
I get the need for center depth – find, sign a Lazar or Glendening but, for me, they do NOT play ahead of Samanski unless he regresses – I don’t care about handedness and neither handedness nor face-offs matter more than ability and upside.
Doesn’t history largely vindicate McLellan’s decisions on Fayne, Reinhart and Klefbom?
Fayne was no longer an effective NHL defender by the time McLellan arrived and was quickly supplanted by Adam Larsson in 2016-17. Larsson was simply the better player by a significant margin in every meaningful way.
Kris Russell, for all the noise around him, delivered elite penalty killing and reliable shutdown minutes.
Reinhart never became an NHL regular. Despite what must have been significant managerial pressure, McLellan stuck to his judgment on the player (and he was right).
Klefbom, on the other hand, was already emerging as a legitimate NHL defender and McLellan recognized it early and gave him real opportunity.
Under McLellan’s decision-making, and with continued growth from the elite talent, the team jumped from 70 points to 103 and made its first playoff appearance in 10 seasons, ending the Decade of Darkness. That leap came in large part by adding Larsson and subtracting Taylor Hall, a trade that remains a “favourite” around here.
What a coach sees, particularly what a good coach sees, is not necessarily a subjective impression. It’s pattern recognition built on what has actually worked (and failed) in the NHL. McLellan’s quick judgments on those three players look pretty sharp in hindsight. It will be interesting to see how Babcock’s early evaluations follow a similar pattern of decisive, results-driven sorting.
I’m glad Makar opting for more cash will hamstring the Avalanche for some time.
No player is worth that in the current cap system. Not one.
If that’s where this is going, the smart hockey thing to do is to trade McDavid next summer, sign 3 strong contributors with the cash you would have spent, and have Leon hoist a Cup or two.
That won’t happen because the bottom line is franchise value, rather than Cups. And McDavid moves the needle there.
This year and next could be the last time for the foreseeable that *any* team is able to cluster near-prime talents the caliber of McDrai and Bouch. The play may well be to accept that two year window as the last of its kind moving forward, and get ready to let McD walk (or pray he pulls a Crosby and re-signs for 14-15M).
Though yeah I’m leaning the thing you said. Rebuild around Brai/Drouch.
Man a cup this year would mean a lot.
The boys deserve it they’ve been teased enough. It’s all about getting more from our bottom Six and Goaltending.
Nobody “deserves” anything. It’s all about playing 200 ft, from top of lineup to the bottom of line up. That will enable the talent to posses, to score, to win. Looking for Hail Mary’s —let’s hope they’ve matured past that. And even so, nobody deserves anything, except the opportunity to prove they can play like winners. 200 feet.
Montreal. They are the other template. They have an emerging and large elite corps signed for win-friendly contracts for 5-8 years.
Let’s see how the two models (get rich v get Cup) play out over the next five years.
McD isn’t here for the money. As long as there’s a good chance to win the Cup, I believe he’s with Drai and Bouch. That chance to win gets better as so many other teams deal with the “get rich” model.
I am all about Montreal’s cap situation, but they did get it primarily by fortunate timing. Their rebuild timed so that they could resign everyone right before the crazy contracts started flying.
They will reap the benefits but I don’t think it is a model for teams to follow.
Whoops hadn’t read this before I made a similar point.
They’ve done well, but hugely benefitted from fortuitous timing wit. the offer sheet that changed things this summer.
The timing of the MTL signings is/was critical. They locked up a lot of their talent through their primes within an entirely different salary paradigm. That’s the thing to aim for but I don’t think the best successes of that template will be as likely moving forward.
I don’t know how close Connor came to leaving last year but if he tells Stan next off-season he want’s to move on. Do you trade him a year early or go one more time all in? Stan will get some good young talent back with a couple of established players kinda like Dubois trade to L.A at a bigger scale if traded a year early or at the trade deadline if it’s a trade and sign.. I would just rather see Nuge-Hyman-Connor-Leon all retire an Oiler then after a little hiatus hired in the Oilers organization as G.M-Head Coach etc.
I would’ve moved him if the Leafs offered Knies and #1.
Would hope for a circumstance like that and take advantage if it presents.
If the current system stays, teams are going to need to offer superstars for top 3 picks in order to make money work.
It shouldn’t be that way. It is exceedingly stupid and counter-productive for the NHL that it is. But here we are.
What a truly terrible trade. Like godawful horribly bad.
Mcdavid himself would mix it because it’s so bad.
You have to trade him. A team can’t lose elite or even good players for nothing and expect to get better. Free agency helps a bit, but you are buying older guys often who have peaked and are declining. Might help for a bit but usually goes sideways
I hope everyone stays and adopt Sid’s plan. Take less and have a better team for the next half decade
The Makar contract does not do that at all.
When it kicks in next season, the Avalanche will have nearly $12 million in cap space with all their key players locked up with the exception of Arturri Lehkonen and Scott Wedgewood.
The following season they will have much flexibility as aging Virtanen contracts including Brick Nelson and Josh Manson expire leaving them with almost $37 million in cap room.
To add…Sakic has been very adept at identifying and acquiring undervalued asssets as evidenced by the offfseason signing of TJ Hughes a standout forward at the University of Michigan.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=223516
I look forward to your posts in a few years where you talk about how Colorado’s downfall was from not having any assets or talent being developed, how the Avs committed too much to an aged core and the part where you pretend like you knew it would happen the whole time.
~Yeah, you guys, signing one little D-man who only plays when he feels like it for over $20 million dollars per year is very good for the Colorado franchise.~
C’mon, get on board.
Trading McDavid is nose picking behavior imo.
All McDavid has said, over and over and over again is that he wants to win a cup in Edm. He’ll have $100M+ in earnings at the end of his 2 year deal. He’s a bit of a different cat, maybe we should, you know, believe what he says about winning here
Yes.
And to all the comments about how Montreal benefited from timing: there are players who prioritize Cups over $millions.
I will criticize McD for some immature leadership, but I bow to him for understanding and leading with his Cap savvy. That ripples through a lineup.
That’s what we’re seeing in Montreal (and Oilers): team leaders setting the example, and hungry not-yet-millionaire talent following that example, because: Cup.
I don’t begrudge players looking to get rich. But, as a fan, I’m glad the teams I root for have talented leaders who value championships over more money.
ps. What do we know really about McD? Winning at hockey is what he lives for. There are two cities where his hockey passion is understood: Edmonton, Montreal. McD isn’t leaving the Oilers, because this only one of two places where his level of commitment (fanaticism, obsession) is normal. Same for the young Habs corps. I believe it’s different for players in California, Florida, even Minnesota and New England.
LT,
Thank you for sharing this interesting morning read on how Todd McLellan used a young Oscar Klefbom and veteran Mark Fayne. This helps inform our expectations of Coach Mike Babcock and adds analysis to recent comments on this blog regarding player deployment for the upcoming season.
Wishing you a wonderful weekend.
Who downvotes this?
Unhappy people?
I kinda wish the upvotes and downvotes had usernames
I think the answer is obvious, 3 I can think of easily. One a hater, one an actal lames fan who posts here bec their fanbase posters that are intelligent numbers about 5, and the other who is just either negative or an alternate id of one of the other two.
Is Shakir Mukhamadullin more likley to be Klefbom or Reinhart?
What a godsend a new Klefbom would be.
Somewhere in the middle? Great comment, a new Klefbom would be excellent. I’ll be watching with interest.
Agreed in between. Klefbom was a top pair D at Shakir’s age
A left handed Michael Kesselring.
The Oilers absolutely need Walman to be the player he was when he first joined the team.
I think that he’s a bit of a lynchpin for the season. How Walman goes, so go the Oilers.
If he falters, it certainly hastens the end of the Glimmer Twin era.
I think they have a few other linchpins.
Walman IS that player when healthy.
Any real sustained struggles line up with trying to play through mobility issues.
Here is hoping he can stay healthy for most of the year and when/if hurt, they have the depth to fill in with Shakir.
I don’t see why Walman would have slow foot speed unless he’s injured – if he’s injured and it limits his mobility, yes, sit his ass – that player doesn’t work, we saw it last year for 2/3 o the year.
Healthy Jake Walman has nice boots and plays nightly. Smith may need to coach some chaos out of his game.
Walman played when not 100 percent a year ago. You could tell in all manner of ways, including his patented quick start from behind the net. When he’s healthy, that’s a strong play. I dont think Babcock will go to war with a less than completely functional Walman.
Nor should he. The game is faster now, and many of today’s young players seem to adapt quicker to the NHL, and so coaches should reduce playing time for guys who are injured. Add in a couple extra games to the season and a full 23 man roster, now there’s more reason and more coverage to allow injured guys to sit an extra game or two. Broken Jake Walman was no bueno
Yes, this is pretty much what I just said.
I guess your post presumes he’s legit injured for over half the season……
Similarly I think of Walman as a burner. And while I like the cut of Shea’s jib, the one thing that gives me pause are his posted skating speeds.
I could be wrong but I’m pretty sure our management was raving about his skating on the drop. Maybe his top speed isnt great but he makes up for it in other ways
Yeah I’ve heard good edges smart reads long reach. Lots to hope for.
The point is what matters now is how Coach MB assesses his ability to help him win games. That’s the most important item for the current season.
Ekholm played 82 gamest last year (41 points, 12th in the NHL in 5 on 5 points among d-man, 36% TOI vs. elites, 56% goal share).
He was injured the prior season but not at all this past year (any more than any other player).
If we are talking about injured players, the likes of Drai, Hyman, Murphy, Dickinson, Kap, Dach are named to suggest prior to Ekholm, based on history, right?
The key stat on Ekholm is age (36). Babcock has talked about fading McDavid and Draisaitl to keep them fresh, that goes double for Ekholm. As well, NHL players dress and perfom in games while also not being 100 percent. Babcock needs Ekholm to be his Lidstrom. Some rest days during the season are indicated.
Yes, Ekholm is old.
At the same time, that key stat was 35 this past season and there was no injury.
Yes, of course, as he continues to age it makes sense to manage his ice and his leverage but that is not the same as presuming injury which is what was said in the post. He’s had one injury of significance in the last 5 seasons – 76-82 games in each of the others.
There are younger players on this team that seem to get hurt much more than Ekholm, which is who I listed – if we are talking about injury risk, which we were, right?