The Oilers won’t have a strong group of rookie scorers this season, there’s a chance no one exceeds 1.00 points-60 at even strength. I have hopes for Josh Samanski, but if he’s strictly fourth line and doesn’t get a linemate who can push the river, the results will be pedestrian. Pretty sure. Please read this.
Let’s go back to the turn of the century and see how many rookies posted less than 1.50 points-60 at even strength and then emerged as productive offensive players in the NHL.
- Connor McDavid 3.00 2015-16
- Mike Comrie 2.52 2000-01
- Andrew Cogliano 2.37 2007-08
- Ales Hemsky 2.26 2002-03
- Shawn Horcoff 2.24 2000-01
- Nail Yakupov 2.18 2012-13
- Fernando Pisani 2.13 2002-23
- Jarret Stoll 2.00 (small sample) 2002-23
- Sam Gagner 1.97 2007-08
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.93 2011-12
- Jason Chimera 1.90 2002-03
- Taylor Hall 1.85 2010-11
- Jordan Eberle 1.81 2010-11
- Linus Omark 1.76 2010-11
- Matt Savoie 1.66 2025-26
- Josh Currie 1.65 2018-19
- Liam Reddox 1.56 2008-09
This is the group of rookies who were over 1.50 points-60 at even strength during rookie seasons. There are no real surprises, Connor McDavid at the top and quality marbled through the list. You could argue the last two names, and I’d join you, but those rookies had a run and this serves as proof for all time.
- Joe Gambardella 1.48 2018-19
- Jesse Puljujarvi 1.44 2016-17
- Magnus Paajarvi 1.39 2010-11
- Teemu Hartikainen 1.36 2011-12
- Anton Slepyshev 1.33 2016-17
- Ryan Stone 1.32 2009-10
- Ryan McLeod 1.25 2021-22
- Dom Pittis 1.24 2000-01
- Dylan Holloway 1.19 2022-23
- Brad Winchester 1.19 2006-07
- Marc Pouliot 1.17 2006-07
- Patrick Thoresen 1.15 2006-07
- Iiro Pakarinen 1.14 2015-16
- Ryan O’Marra 1.10 2010-11
- Drake Caggiula 1.10 2016-17
- Leon Draisaitl 1.05 2014-15
- Ike Howard 1.05 2025-26
- Chris VandeVelde 0.70 2010-11
- Josh Samanski 0.99 2025-26
- Brian Swanson 0.98 (small sample) 2001-02
- Mike Bishai 0.98 2003-04
- Tyler Benson 0.87 2019-20
- James Hamblin 0.75 2023-24
- Jujhar Khaira 0.66 2016-17
- Luke Gazdic 0.62 2013-14
- Tyler Pitlick 0.58 2014-15
- Zack Stortini 0.31 2006-07
- Kailer Yamamoto 0.30 2018-19
This list shows us a lot. When we take the outliers away (Leon Draisaitl had the worst scoring luck of his career as a rookie, Kailer Yamamoto was absolutely better than this list shows, Dylan Holloway spiked in St. Louis), we do get a list of men who flushed out of the league in their 20’s, along with some enforcers and a few who turned into ‘middle-six’ NHL players.
What does that tell us about Ike Howard and Josh Samanski? Well, Howard is on the wrong side of 1.50, and there’s a new coach in town focused on winning the Stanley Cup. I can’t tell you it would be wise to fade Howard on a team with exactly zero young alternatives for a scoring line, but flags fly forever. As for Samanski, my guess is he won’t exceed 1.50 this season and that too is a tell.
On the Lowdown today, Steve Lansky will be our feature guest and we’ll talk about Elliotte Friedman and his possible exit from HNIC. What does it mean for viewers? Plus a preview of the Labour Day classic and can the Jays do it? Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Projecting the 2026-27 Bakersfield Condors roster with Oilers camp on the horizon
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7561936/2026/09/04/oilers-projected-bakersfield-condors-roster-2026-27/
It’s a small sample size obvs but the Jays sent out P Gausman and CF Varsho at the deadline, and got younger and arguably better with P Soriano and CF Bateman both playing well.
C’mon Stan. Why should Jays fans have all the fun? How about making (and winning) a good old fashioned hockey trade for something different?
My issue with strict cut offs is that it does not account for where the team is on the win curve and how much opportunity there is.
Holloway broke in on a very good Oilers team. Hemsky and others, not so much.
I expect Howard to be quite productive.
Samanski could have a very good career if his defence is truly as lockdown as reported, and how it looked by eye in his brief stint. Almost like how the elite defensive CFs and shortstops don’t have to hit very well to be extremely valuable players. Devon White comes to mind.
The Issac Howard we will see in September 2026 will not resemble the player we saw in October 2025 or January 2026. This will be a much more mature all around player and he should be deployed in a position to succeed with skilled offensive drivers.
This player will be able to help win and Babcock will see that.
Let’s not forget, he has a good motor and is very hard working and highly coachable.
Whenever I read the name Liam Reddox, all I see is MacT’s angry stare.
With Savoie’s injury, are we overthinking the lineup?
Veteran coaches like veteran players. I wonder if Babcock, instilling a disciplined system and spreading out the minutes while allowing each 5v5 line gain an identity, runs it this way
2 lines that outscore
1 traditional checking line
1 kid line with a defensive conscience
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Podz-Draisatl-Kapanen
Joseph-Dickason-Frederic
Howard-Samanski-Dach
That 4th line would have a shot at some offense and with Samanski it gives them a two way center to mind their own zone, Dach crashes and bangs and Howard outscores the opposition. May be the best set up and a lineup I expect a veteran coach will embrace to start
If the Hellebuyck speculation that he would in fact come to Edmonton is true, you find a way. They’d have at least 2 SCs already. He doesn’t have to be what he has had to for that Winnipeg team. One outduelling of Bob and there would have been a banner. Light work.
And the price won’t be crazy. Listening to Spector on this yesterday was embarrassing. Showed exactly how little he understands about trades involving NMCs.
IIRC though Hellebuyck has been poor in the playoffs compared to his Vezina winning regular seasons. Is is worth the gamble and assets? I’m not sold. I think with the goaltending that we currently have is all we need with a strong 200 foot game lines one through four and making sure we deploy better puck management. This is what I’m hoping that Babcock can instill on the team.
He would’ve been just fine with the Oilers in front of him.
Howard Berger
@Berger_BYTES
BREAKING: I’m hearing, repeatedly, that Elliotte Friedman is all-but gone from Sportsnet. That Prime has offered money Ed the Conqueror will not match.
Amazon wants Elliotte for its season-long package of Wednesday night games. Maybe THAT becomes the new Hockey Night In Canada, instead of Saturday.
Friedman’s acquisition would be one of the biggest-ever sports media stories in our land.
Solid move by Friedman if it happens.
Prime has been a slow burn in comparison to platforms like Netflix and Apple, but Bezos has built it properly including the considerable investment in live sports.
In the next 3 years, Prime will be about as institutional as it gets in this fractured media landscape.
With Amazon’s move to be the local streaming partner for Carolina, Dallas, Anaheim, Columbus, Minnesota and St. Louis and the Canadian deal, they are making major inroads.
I would imagine Amazon will also become a major player when the U.S. national broadcast deal with ESPN and TNT expires after the 2027/28 season.
And just yesterday, Rogers hived off French language broadcasting rights to Quebecor.
“Starting with the 2026-27 season, Quebecor will hold the French broadcasting rights for up to 350 regular season NHL games per season, including 32 Montréal Canadiens regular-season games and all Montréal Canadiens games in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
This includes 10 more regular-season Montréal games than under the previous agreement; six of the eight First Round series of the Stanley Cup Playoffs; three of the four Second Round series; the Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Final; and all NHL tentpole events.”
https://www.nhl.com/news/rogers-quebecor-agree-to-12-year-sublicensing-deal-for-nhl-games-in-french
The NFL is the anchor tenant for Prime. The other majors will always want to be where the big boys are
I do worry about what all this fracturing will eventually do for the casual sports fan, but this was always inevitable with an entire generation “cutting the cable.”
The sad thing is we’re losing these monoculture moments where an entire fanbase participates in a communal experience. Combine that with modern sports arenas where fan experiences are segregated on the basis of wealth/class/access and these are not your Dad’s pro sports experiences.
Elitism has replaced egalitarianism, from youth hockey right to the owner’s suite.
Where have you gone Nail Yakupov? A nation turns it’s lonely eyes to you.
And Jesse Puljujarvi for that matter.
There is only one word to describe such draft results, Bonsignorian.
I’ll never forgive Eakins or that damn linesman.
Watching him in that first training camp could show anyone the joy of the game. It was stolen from him.
Not to mention #97’s scoring winger that they’re still looking for.
I honestly don’t know what the scouts were thinking. He had one dominant skill, a plus shot, and he came into the draft rocking an unsustainable shooting percentage.
The Oilers made the same mistake with Nail and Jesse imo. Both were freelancers with poor hockey sense and lacking positional discipline. In short, they were going to need a LOT of coaching to be consistent pros. And good coaching requires good communication.
This is where the team AND players fell short imo, because the language barriers and cultural assimilation issues eventually became insurmountable for both Nail and Jesse
The lessons from these players are threefold. 1) Don’t take a project pick in a lottery slot, 2) Emphasize hockey sense as an essential elite trait, and 3) Ensure the player is coachable and you have the right resources to coach them properly.
Smart orgs never make the same mistake twice. With Yakupov and Puljujarvi, the Oilers did exactly that.
The thing is, they aren’t expecting Samanski to score a lot as a fourth line center.
But Howard is going to have to score, especially if that’s the only way he can contribute.
He wears that #53 just like another guy we used to know.