In the 1966-67 season, Chicago Blackhawks winger Bobby Hull scored 52 goals on 322 shots. It was an explosive season, featuring a 16.2 shooting percentage and the second highest goal total in a single season before the expansion era. Hull scored 54 goals in 1965-66 to set the mark. He was the most brilliant goal-scorer of his time.
Last season, Connor McDavid scored 48 goals on 307 shots, for a 15.6 shooting percentage. Due to his range of skills and other factors (the average goals-per-game in ’66-67 was 2.98, ’25-26 it was 3.08), we don’t view McDavid as a pure scorer like Hull.
Per 82 games during his NHL career, McDavid is averaging 42-84-126. Amazing. Hull averaged 82, 47-43-90 for his career. If I were to pick a HHOF forward who is least similar to McDavid, Hull would be a good choice. The Golden Jet had speed, a terrific shot and a reputation for undisciplined play. McDavid has, well, everything.
I mention this because after all these years, it’s still an absolute thrill to drive my car to the rink and watch him play. There is no greater entertainer on planet earth, in my opinion. I hope he gets his Stanley this year.
There were miles of weird numbers last year at five-on-five, but I have a hard time marrying the goal share with expected goal share in some cases. McDavid with Trent Frederic had a 33 percent goal share five-on-five, but 76 percent expected goal share. What the hell?
The on-ice shooting percentage was five percent and the on-ice save percentage was .846, but what do you do with that number set? It was in just 80 minutes, and I don’t think it was a good idea, hell even a completely healthy Frederic isn’t going to turn into Patrick Maroon for you.
McDavid goal share (expected) five-on-five (with linemates)
- Trent Frederic 33 (76)
- Leon Draisaitl 53 (60)
- Zach Hyman 55 (57)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 51 (55)
- Vasily Podkolzin 67 (52)
- Andrew Mangiapane 45 (52)
- Matt Savoie 56 (51)
- Jack Roslovic 51 (51)
- Ike Howard 40 (48)
I have sorted these by expected goal share, which is the number in brackets. McDavid is a ridiculous player and he floats all boats, but we tend to look at goal share for suitable linemates. Is expected goal share better? I would argue it is, up to 200 minutes when the experts tell me we can begin to trust the actual numbers.
Another way of viewing linemates for McDavid is the offense posted by each man alongside the captain. Those numbers are especially revealing, although it’s kind of all over the place unless you also include ice time. Here are the goals-60 by individual while playing with McDavid last season:
- Ike Howard 2.01 (30 minutes)
- Jack Roslovic 1.37 (131)
- Andrew Mangiapane 1.27 (189)
- Zach Hyman 0.99 (725)
- Matt Savoie 0.89 (337)
- Leon Draisaitl 0.76 (318)
- Vasily Podkolzin 0.76 (236)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 0.66 (549)
- Trent Frederic 0.00 (80)
Here we see Trent Frederic proving he isn’t Patrick Maroon, although he wasn’t 100 percent when playing those 80 minutes. If I were advising Mike Babcock, my ideal linemates based on these numbers and roster logic are Zach Hyman and Matt Savoie. I don’t think that’s especially controversial, but some may prefer Leon Draisaitl, Ike Howard or Vasily Pokdolzin. Now, let’s do points-60 with McDavid:
- Jack Roslovic 2.75 (131)
- Leon Draisaitl 2.64 (318)
- Matt Savoie 2.14 (337)
- Ike Howard 2.01 (30)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.86 (549)
- Zach Hyman 1.74 (725)
- Andrew Mangiapane 1.59 (189)
- Vasily Podkolzin 1.53 (236)
- Trent Frederic 0.00 (80)
This column recommends Draisaitl and Savoie, something we may yet see when the young winger is healthy. Ike Howard is in the chat, but the sample is too small to trust. Frederic shows just how wasteful those 80 minutes were. Finally, who is on the ice for peak McDavid? Here are his numbers with specific linemates:
- 3.03 (Matt Savoie)
- 2.73 (Zach Hyman)
- 2.73 (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins)
- 2.54 (Vasily Podkolzin)
- 2.27 (Leon Draisaitl)
- 2.22 (Andrew Mangiapane)
- 2.01 (Ike Howard)
- 1.83 (Jack Roslovic)
- 1.50 (Trent Frederic)
As expected, McDavid is going to score with two slop buckets on the ice (although he didn’t cash during the 52 minutes Kasperi Kapanen was on his line). I’m going with Hyman and Savoie for McDavid, and Podkolzin and Ike Howard for Draisaitl on the second line. I know last year was frustrating and there are all kinds of reasons to be hammering what happened, but I’m not sure the early lines Mike Babcock is entertaining represent a clear upgrade. Let’s not over think McDavid’s five-on-five time.
If you could afford to Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman, they could rock the boat every night. In the last three seasons combined (five-on-five) the trio owns a 5.21 goals-60, 70 percent goal share with 66 percent expected. That’s a power play while at five-on-five. I get it.
Mike Babcock doesn’t have the horses to run McDavid-Draisaitl. We’re all just waiting for him to find that out, really. That’s this year’s training camp. And you know what? There are other reasonable checkdown options.
If Babcock finds an effective second line that doesn’t include Draisaitl, he is a certified hockey genius.
Babcock loves Nuge (as do I) and has for sometime. I recall an interview probably 10 years ago with him that said something to the effect of how many minutes McDavid got and we already had a 1C in Nuge who was ‘a pretty good player’. After all these years he still really holds him in high regard. Unfortunately it has been ~10 years and we’re a couple years away from capable 2C line driving Nuge. If he’s healthy, which I don’t feel he was 100% last year AND gets good wingers, conveniently sorted by our host this morning it ‘might’ work IF the system does. That’s a lot to go right in short order.
Rishaug talking about how fast and Athletic Levi looks. From account, this kid is desperate for the NHL and to prove he’s ready and able.
Re: Freddy
Teams delude themselves into thinking their nasty player can hold up on a skill line, and it never works for them.
But it might work for us.
Lines this morning, courtesy Bob
Draisaitl-McDavid-Podkolzin
Formenton-Dach-Joseph
Jones-Samanski-Howard
Nicholl-Michaels-Griffith
Bookman-Stonehouse
Shea-Bouchard
Stastney-Emberson
Stillman-Brown
Carfagna-Robinson
Jarry
Tomkins
I’m not a fan of Nicholl on LW.
Rishaug says he’s heard rumblings that Dickinson was not 100% coming in to camp. Coach did say he wasn’t scheduled to play in the scrimmage in any event.
Well, as long as McDavid-Draisiatl sticks together=winning!
WTF? This must go back to his knee in the playoffs. ( no clue if that is what it is) Or did he injure himself training? Maybe this is why Stauffer keeps mentioning Kirby Dach? Sounds like Michaels will get the 1st shot tonight on the 3rd dot.
Good read LT. I don’t see Nuge driving a 2nd line as the C. I hope I am wrong. If he cannot be the driver, I don’t see anyone coming up from below in the C depth doing it either. So yes unless they can swing a trade for someone to play the #2 Dot it will probably mean Drai drops down.
Some chatter of Kirby Dach and I really like this player and when he came out of junior, he was a gifted playmaker but injuries have plagued his career and don’t think he would be the answer on the 2nd dot or if he could even last a season without being injured.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out for sure. One guy I would really be going after that could drive the 2nd line ( I still think he could) , kills penalties and is a great faceoff guy is Ryan O’Reilly. He could have another good year or two left in him.
We can hope Nuge has a start like he did last year. But….
Nuge had 22 5v5 points last year 21 the year prior. While spending most of his playing time with the best player in the world.
Nuge use to strip pucks on the back track regularly. Last year he had 14 takeaways at 5v5.
Maybe he can be a short term answer for 2C. I’m guessing dria will be there soon enough.
Im in the camp that the 2nd line doesnt need Nuge to be the driver, just the center.
Now that will require the club to identify the winger that will drive the line, Podz is playing 1st line so Hyman/Savoie/Howard someone else will have to provide the river pushing. Its a shame Savoie is injured as a Podz/Hyman forecheck would be an excellent 2nd line drive.
Prospecturity!
The last Oilers pick from the most recent draft is the first to see regular season action with his club team. Ryan Cameron, drafted 212th overall, and the Sioux Falls Stampede begin their season at the USHL Fall Classic tourney in the City of Wind.
The Stampede are the defending USHL champs, but Cameron was not part of that experience as he was with Cedar Rapids yesterseason. There, he appeared in 40 games with a 2.92 GAA and 88.2 SV%.
Next season, he will make like Steve Miller and fly like an Eagle as he joins Boston College (as will Rudolfs Berzkalns).
(The CHL’ers would also be on the docket today were it not for them still being at Oilers camp. Even if they were to get reassigned today, it wouldn’t be in time for them to suit up with their club teams.)
The puck drops on a new prospecting season proper at 11 a.m. Kavanagh time.
Speculation (Gregor) that the Oilers will have some good players in Winnipeg tonight including the top 2 lines.
Game is in Edmonton. I’m pretty sure.
We are going to see McDavid and Drai together to start the season. We will see them on seperate lines a ton this season as well. Maybe for game 2 on the road, or even shift 5 at home.
Injuries will require line changes through the year.
Draisaitl spent 30 percent of his five-on-five time with McDavid one year ago. Based on Babcock’s early verbal, that will climb. That’s Nuge second line, Dickinson third line and Dach fourth line. Fun!
Any word on Dickenson injury yet?
Youn think Colton Dach is going to play 4th line C man?
Based on Babcocks verbal, I think Owen Michaels will slide in for Dickinson and I do expect Dach to be No. 4 center.