In the 1966-67 season, Chicago Blackhawks winger Bobby Hull scored 52 goals on 322 shots. It was an explosive season, featuring a 16.2 shooting percentage and the second highest goal total in a single season before the expansion era. Hull scored 54 goals in 1965-66 to set the mark. He was the most brilliant goal-scorer of his time.
Last season, Connor McDavid scored 48 goals on 307 shots, for a 15.6 shooting percentage. Due to his range of skills and other factors (the average goals-per-game in ’66-67 was 2.98, ’25-26 it was 3.08), we don’t view McDavid as a pure scorer like Hull.
Per 82 games during his NHL career, McDavid is averaging 42-84-126. Amazing. Hull averaged 82, 47-43-90 for his career. If I were to pick a HHOF forward who is least similar to McDavid, Hull would be a good choice. The Golden Jet had speed, a terrific shot and a reputation for undisciplined play. McDavid has, well, everything.
I mention this because after all these years, it’s still an absolute thrill to drive my car to the rink and watch him play. There is no greater entertainer on planet earth, in my opinion. I hope he gets his Stanley this year.
There were miles of weird numbers last year at five-on-five, but I have a hard time marrying the goal share with expected goal share in some cases. McDavid with Trent Frederic had a 33 percent goal share five-on-five, but 76 percent expected goal share. What the hell?
The on-ice shooting percentage was five percent and the on-ice save percentage was .846, but what do you do with that number set? It was in just 80 minutes, and I don’t think it was a good idea, hell even a completely healthy Frederic isn’t going to turn into Patrick Maroon for you.
McDavid goal share (expected) five-on-five (with linemates)
- Trent Frederic 33 (76)
- Leon Draisaitl 53 (60)
- Zach Hyman 55 (57)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 51 (55)
- Vasily Podkolzin 67 (52)
- Andrew Mangiapane 45 (52)
- Matt Savoie 56 (51)
- Jack Roslovic 51 (51)
- Ike Howard 40 (48)
I have sorted these by expected goal share, which is the number in brackets. McDavid is a ridiculous player and he floats all boats, but we tend to look at goal share for suitable linemates. Is expected goal share better? I would argue it is, up to 200 minutes when the experts tell me we can begin to trust the actual numbers.
Another way of viewing linemates for McDavid is the offense posted by each man alongside the captain. Those numbers are especially revealing, although it’s kind of all over the place unless you also include ice time. Here are the goals-60 by individual while playing with McDavid last season:
- Ike Howard 2.01 (30 minutes)
- Jack Roslovic 1.37 (131)
- Andrew Mangiapane 1.27 (189)
- Zach Hyman 0.99 (725)
- Matt Savoie 0.89 (337)
- Leon Draisaitl 0.76 (318)
- Vasily Podkolzin 0.76 (236)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 0.66 (549)
- Trent Frederic 0.00 (80)
Here we see Trent Frederic proving he isn’t Patrick Maroon, although he wasn’t 100 percent when playing those 80 minutes. If I were advising Mike Babcock, my ideal linemates based on these numbers and roster logic are Zach Hyman and Matt Savoie. I don’t think that’s especially controversial, but some may prefer Leon Draisaitl, Ike Howard or Vasily Pokdolzin. Now, let’s do points-60 with McDavid:
- Jack Roslovic 2.75 (131)
- Leon Draisaitl 2.64 (318)
- Matt Savoie 2.14 (337)
- Ike Howard 2.01 (30)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 1.86 (549)
- Zach Hyman 1.74 (725)
- Andrew Mangiapane 1.59 (189)
- Vasily Podkolzin 1.53 (236)
- Trent Frederic 0.00 (80)
This column recommends Draisaitl and Savoie, something we may yet see when the young winger is healthy. Ike Howard is in the chat, but the sample is too small to trust. Frederic shows just how wasteful those 80 minutes were. Finally, who is on the ice for peak McDavid? Here are his numbers with specific linemates:
- 3.03 (Matt Savoie)
- 2.73 (Zach Hyman)
- 2.73 (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins)
- 2.54 (Vasily Podkolzin)
- 2.27 (Leon Draisaitl)
- 2.22 (Andrew Mangiapane)
- 2.01 (Ike Howard)
- 1.83 (Jack Roslovic)
- 1.50 (Trent Frederic)
As expected, McDavid is going to score with two slop buckets on the ice (although he didn’t cash during the 52 minutes Kasperi Kapanen was on his line). I’m going with Hyman and Savoie for McDavid, and Podkolzin and Ike Howard for Draisaitl on the second line. I know last year was frustrating and there are all kinds of reasons to be hammering what happened, but I’m not sure the early lines Mike Babcock is entertaining represent a clear upgrade. Let’s not over think McDavid’s five-on-five time.
If you could afford to Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman, they could rock the boat every night. In the last three seasons combined (five-on-five) the trio owns a 5.21 goals-60, 70 percent goal share with 66 percent expected. That’s a power play while at five-on-five. I get it.
Mike Babcock doesn’t have the horses to run McDavid-Draisaitl. We’re all just waiting for him to find that out, really. That’s this year’s training camp. And you know what? There are other reasonable checkdown options.
If Babcock finds an effective second line that doesn’t include Draisaitl, he is a certified hockey genius.
I just got back from the game and have a few observations. Babs certainly didn’t hesitate putting out the Dach line. Dach didn’t look out of place as centre against the competition he was given, he made some heavy plays down low in his own zone and kept the play moving in the offensive zone. His line got close to 16mins. Joseph didn’t impress much and to me, any other player on this lineup could replace him on this line such as Nicholl or Michaels. Nicholls impressed as he engaged and was smart: mostly in the right places at the right time, making plays. He has a unique skating style with short cross-overs but seems to be keeping up with and making plays well.
I’d say switching out Joseph on this line with someone like Savoie or maybe Isaac Howard could liven up that line for more goals for, or sub in Samanski for more neutralization. However, I would say that Dach ate Samanski’s lunch tonight as an aggressive centre vs a more passive style.
Samanski needs to engage more this is the NHL not international play.
They played him with a bad AHL’er in Max Jones who does not mix well at all with others, and Howard on his off wing. Samanski and Howard were set up to fail.
Plus, they were burdened with the Brown and Stillman D pair.
I agree this has something to do with that line’s performance. Jones looks like an hockey player but his edge work and hockey IQ are not NHL level, IMO.
Samuel Jonsson and Nathanial Day have both been loaned to the Condors. Condors’ camp opens Monday.
Some notes from Babock’s presser:
Raves about the Dach line – loved the speed. Talked about how he was cheering for Dach, they need him to be a player and he was wondering if he was making a mistake putting him at center but loved that line – his favourite line tonight. Went back to that later in the presser and he really wants Dach to be able to play centre – would really help the team depth.
Bouchard will have multiple partners – there are two many minutes for him to only have one centre.
Howie has had a really good camp but I didn’t like his as much tonight. But let’s not judge him. He was walking around and wasn’t happy so he knows. His work ethic, his checking back, its all improved. That line struggled tonight.
Raves about the Dach line (getting hammered IRL) it begins….
Not sure what they decide to do with the D this year, whether Shea or Ekholm play with Bouch, but bottom 6 should benefit either way, with Walman (assuming he’s heatlhy and plays with any urgency) and whoever end up playing #2 LD.
IMO the poor touches and decisions from the back end were significant contributors to bottom 6 struggles for a long time here. If you can’t get the puck into the forwards’ hands reliably, it doesn’t matter who you rotate through. A bit of addition by subtraction.
Looked like a better break out structure to me with less stretchy stretchy.
At least tonight will likely shut even Stauff up about Josh Brown playing games for the Oilers this season – Stilman/Brown have been horrid.
Unfortunately, a poor defensive zone performance with Samanski when out there with that line.
Was just going to ask about that. Don’t want to read too much into the plus side when you play a team that doesn’t dress it’s top 3 lines of forwards, but to go -2 against an AHL squad takes some real doing (re: Brown).
Not sure about Samanski. Was it just being out there with him or did he make mistakes to hurt his cause?
Formenton keeps beating the D.
Some real penalty-drawing potential even if the finishing doesn’t sharpen.
I liked Ryan Jones’ energy and enthusiasm. I believed Caleb had a promising NHL career when he was with the Oilers. Can someone please tell me why Max Jones is being considered for the NHL roster? I’ve watched him for the last two years with Condors and he doesn’t play well with others. He’s challenged in the AHL to make and catch a pass from a linemate or D. He can crash the net from the corner with the puck on his stick but why would anyone be worried to place him waivers for assignment to the Condors? Am I watching a different game? I don’t recall him back checking and breaking up plays or blocking shots.
Has a lot of tools in the box I think
he hears bees.
I said at the time of call up last year that it was not earned based on his AHL play – he was very inconsistent in the AHL and didn’t seem full effort. At the same time, he played much better in the NHL last year than the AHL.
For me, he’s 14F and it would be egregious if they send Samanski down and keep him.
He’s exactly the sort of player (one of the types) who fools scouts and evaluators.
It is hard for many of them to not see a spike in performance being only one slight improvement away. When in reality, his ceiling just isn’t that high.
Other examples include: large, usually WHL-bred defencemen who don’t score goals in junior and small, fast guys who score goals with speed in junior and never again once they have to have shooting skill.
They need to get Samanski back into the middle. He’s a much better C than W, and he’s miles better at the role than Dach.
Samanski is playing center – just not on a presumed NHL line.
There is the Formenton speed and the finish probably great for his confidence.
Not sure that play is available in regular season NHL action but good arrow.
Speed is king and the kid does seem to have good mitts. “To find a pearl, you must be willing to dive deep into the ocean.”
Yup, but we need to acknowledge that line is running 30%-35% expected goal share and have been absolutely caved in and running around their own zone 3-4 times.
Drai/Bouch/McDavid with an extra man against a non-NHL team – not fair.
Good screen by Owen Michaels.
This is very good comp for the Stilman/Brown pairing – yikes.
That pairing with the Dach/Speedsters line has been trouble.
The Dach line caved in for the 3rd time so far this game……
Its chaos for them in the defensive zone so far.
Notable that Dach/Joseph/Samanski split the PK2 shift.
25-35 seconds for them.
Samanski very reliable, good in D and neutral zone, but then he seems to stop moving his feet and force his passes a bit when he hits the O zone.
I need to know who is singing this version of Bad to the Bone on Oilers+
McDavid, Leon and Podz were each 16-1 Coris and 2-0 goals.
Bouchard was 18-2 and 1-0.
Samanski, Jones, Howard and Brown on the opposite end (closer Coris and 0-1 goals).
Bouch with 8 minutes 5 on 5 and over a minute on the PK in the first.
I presume Babcock/Smith are using the game as a conditioning exercise.
Howard with Podz and Leon coming out of the kill – a very dangerous offensive zone shift.
It’s been a long, long time since I’ve heard a game called in the manner of this CJOB crew.
Reminds me of listening to Rebels games on the radio some 25 years ago.
All about calling the action, very little navel gazing. Utter commitment to the actual product.
The anti-Jack Michaels.
To be fair to Jack and Louie, their current broadcast flavour seems to be in vogue. The WPG radio crew are doing it right. I’d go so far as to say any producer who opts for anything else is doing a detriment to the audience, and the sport of hockey.
I grew up in Manitoba and the football calls were far better than hockey. Bob Irving is one of this country’s legendary broadcasters.
Formenton with a steal on the PK in the Jets zone and a good chance.
We are going to hear and see that many times this year.
McDavid/Formenton
Shea/Bouchard
Start the PK.
Dach line gets running around a bit and Brown takes a penalty to avoid getting walked on a 1 on 1 down low.
Howard with some solid defensive zone board work – he and Samanski.
This Oiler top line with the Bouchard/Shea pair against any 5 players the Jets can put out is the most unfair thing I’ve seen on the ice in longer than I can remember.
Its like the Globetrotters in the O-zone.
Holy Hell Ryan Shea- what a move and goal.
Note that absolutely insane elite keep by Bouchard at the blue – puck was waist high.
Also note McDavid full forecheck and physical on puck retrieval in ex Gm 1.
Not sure Howard didn’t go to the wrong place on that back-track – two Jets driving the net and Howard was going towards the puck carrier – not great start for Howard.
No bench. The Dach line gets 15 second and then top line right back out there with offensive zone pressure for 40 seconds.
Better that Babcock learns that line is a bad idea today rather than a month from now.
Drai fails to get the puck out 10 second in and Gregor with a scoring chance (good stop Jarry).
Bench him?
Hot damn do I wish Shakir was in the lineup – really looking forward to getting some eyes on him!
My Takeaway from the statistics presented as it looks like Jack Roslovic was much underappreciated as a player. Matter fact, he could’ve filled that last top six position or spare that we’ve been looking for.
To give him some credit he was fast. He did move up the ice well. He got open for shots and he could shoot. He was not rugged, but he managed well.
He is at $4 million times two, and is an empty calories player. Now that might be Ike Howard too, but if he maxes out his contract that means the goals are coming.
We were drawing conclusions from last years stats, Roslovic deserves some credit.
Watching Roslovic, or rather searching for him, in the playoffs was enough for me. Time to cut bait and move on.
Regular season goal scoring isn’t the issue.
I would be shooting higher this year as well. But I will say regular season scoring was an issue wasn’t it. 93 points. And that continued into playoffs.
Gosh darn has Stauffer ever lost a lot of weight
He looks positively svelte.
Hollywood, here’s your new 007!
He looks great!
He might lose his Royal pizza sponsorship
Babcocks running a tighter ship than Dallas Eakins.
That made me laugh out loud. I remember the whole to do about no donuts.
Has said he’s walked 15000 steps before 9am essentially every day since the spring.
He’s been seen running stairs at the rink as well.
Good for him.
Very good for him. I was a little worried late last season looking at him. Pretty rough.
He’s even lost a chin along the way.
How can we watch the game tonight?
Oilers+ and for me, a rogue provider OnHockey(dot)TV
It was listed on the espn+ app earlier this morning but has since disappeared. I am in Australia though.
Only for the Jets region folks. Should go live right around gametime:
https://www.nhl.com/jets/video/winnipeg-jets-live-stream-6336966650112
Summarizing!
Cameron got to watch the game from the bench as Sioux Falls won 3-2. The Stampede play again in less than 24 hours, so one assumes he’ll get the crease tomorrow.
Jets lineup via Mitchell Clinton:
Rosen-Björck-Lambert
He-Yager-Ford
Chibrikov-Zhilkin-Gregor
Barlow-Julien-Wahlin
Fleury-St. Ivany
Thrun-Bauer
Phillips-Gustafsson
Ta’amu-Mayo
Milic, Poulter
I was hoping that, with only 4 games, there would be a semblance of an NHL lineup in all four but I guess not.
I mean, how can we evaluate Dach at center and or a Jones/Samanski/Howard line against a complete non-NHL lineup.
Exhibition games continue to mean all but nothing as far as evaluating NHL readiness of young players.
Perhaps the Jets are trying to evaluate the NHL readiness of their young players?
We’ve see it year after year after year after year, performance in exhibition games means all but nothing as far as young players readiness for the NHL and veterans readiness for the season.
Howard and Samanski could each set up Jones for a goal and it really means absolutely nothing as far as what any of them may accomplish in the NHL this year.
Ok, well I’m sure the players and coaching staff will get a lot more out of it than nothing. Enjoy the game. .
How would you like to be a Jets fan? Once Hellebuych leaves Scheifele is right behind him at the trade deadline.
Apparently, they’re not aware of the dictum from “West Side Story” that says when you’re a Jet, you stay a Jet.
Good regular season team they had all the ingredients on several occasions should have tanked for Gavin and set up a trade for Hellebuych around the draft. Or maybe Hellebuych would have stayed if they had drafted top three instead a team like the asshole Panthers will get him for 72 cents on the Yankee dollar.
Nhl players who’ve played 80 plus games can only play 2 games now.
I know that (its 100 games, not 80 – for the threshold).
Per Michael Menzies at DFO Edmonton:
I am loving Babcock’s media so far. Says all the right things
He certainly is a good interview. Looks like he’s really enjoying being back in the game.
Rishaug on his pod last night went in to quite a bit of detail on how he’s running things with lots of example on how he is on the ice along with how he is with players and with the other coaches, etc., etc.
There is no effing around on the ice, at all – that’s the main theme. Things are getting done and things are getting done right or they are getting re-done.
I think it’s all business this year Babcock needs to get that bottom six going somehow.
He is well prepared I’ll give him that.
We should keep in mind finishing, saving, and the fact that as a public model, xGF% does capture some important aspects of play (for example, elements of passing sequences).
That said, xGF% does not show stronger predictive power than GF% in small samples. For the 5v5 state at the end of October, early-season xGF% has an R² of only 0.17 with full-season (82 GP) GF%, while early GF% itself sits at 0.25.
Neither measure is particularly reliable in small samples.
By the end of January the R² rises to 0.35 for xGF% and 0.78 for GF%. At that point in the season we could reasonably begin to treat GF% as a predictive measure of future 82 GP GF%.
The 200-minute mark may be cited by experts as a threshold for starting to trust the numbers for lines and pairings. However, the evidence suggests that even at sample sizes of that order it is doubtful the measures have yet met scientific criteria for reliability.
Interesting data.
Georges used to state/demonstrate often that the strongest predictive measure of goals was GF from the trailing three years. Unfortunately his math seemed to go unappreciated by most and he quit posting. :/
From my own analyses, the main takeaway is that there is a significant amount of art involved in analytics. Many of the numbers commonly cited simply do not meet clear criteria for statistical reliability, and without direct observation they risk being spurious.
Very true.
I think Dellow said in an interview that the Canes don’t really use analytics for player acquisition. It’s tool used more for team play. I could be wrong, can’t seem to find the link.
I recall that interview as well. For players that have established as NHL players, he said they look for stylistic fit – do they play like the team wants to play? Trying to pound square pegs into round holes as they Oilers have liked to try is not going to work as reliably improving the team
These are the items I’ve read that seem to make sense when I try to understand Mike Babcock’s strategy when moving Colton Dach to center to start the season:
Colton Dach is Mike’s attempt (first?) to add a heavy centre into his lineup. Mike demands a heavy game from his bottom six centers, especially down low in the defensive end. Notably, Colton is 220lb. This also fits with the history I’ve read of Mike challenging his younger players to learn how they react to the adversity.
I can’t say I’m confident the attempt will work, but I can understand why this coach would like a large bottom six centerman for heavy down low assignments he demands in the defensive zone.
Regarding Nuge, from what I’ve read, it seems like Mike thinks highly of his two way game and plans to give him a couple of wingers who can win puck battles in support. Reviewing the math, LT eloquently provides, shows the risk with this strategy.
Alan was gently reminding over the summer we should expect Mike Babcock will have different opinions, and different solutions, than prior coaches, at the very least to start the season as he learns to capabilities of his roster. I continue to appreciate the wise and humble words of our blog author.
Babcock might be feeling his inner Sather who tried a fast young brute down the middle that seemed to have worked out for us.
Hello Mark Messier.
Yep Babcock I knew Babcock would take on a project kinda like he did with Hyman.
I hope Colton is warming up this spot for his Bro.
I have two questions today.
1. Where can I watch the game tonight.
2. Why do I keep getting automatically logged out of this site every couple of hours?
I appreciate everyone’s input, thanks.
http://www.winnipegjets.com
Thanks
Oilers Plus
Is there any world where we could acquire Robert Thomas?
Not anymore. The Blues would have to implode, and that tail event is not very probable. And the most likely reason the Blues would implode would be if Robert Thomas got injured.
If the Blues stay in no man’s land for two more years, then Robert Thomas might become available as the Blues would transition younger with MacTavish, Dvorsky, and Lawrence as their centres.
More realistic high-end targets may include:
Filip Forsberg – I think he would waive to play with Ekholm
Jared McCann – Lower acquisition cost and can play top-6
Mark Scheifele – I’m not sure if Connor & Leon like this guy, but he would be an ideal 2C with a manageable cap hit. Cheveldayoff would ask the moon and stars though.
Along with Alex DeBrincat….
Good call now you’re in the game as our longtime friend Horcoff is running the show in the Motor City.
Seems like a pipezream even when he was, supposedly available and prior to being named captain.
Do you mean “least similar” or “at least similar”?
Gilbert Perreault is my comparable for McDavid.
Hull is definitely “least similar”.
FTFY
I agree on Gilbert Perreault as a style comp to McDavid. It’s uncanny.
That Sabre team was unbelievable if not for Bernie Parent the Sabres win the Cup. As a result the Sabres then come back with the same team the following couple of years. The French Connection the coolest line name in hockey history.
I was wondering the same thing… can you clarify LT?
McDavid is not similar to Bobby Hull.
Neither “least similar” nor “at least similar” make any sense?
“Not similar” makes sense, but there are a lot more players less similar to McDavid than Bobby Hull. “Least” does not make sense.
We will have to agree to disagree.
I read least to mean less similar to McDavid than the other stars of that era.
Make sense?
Hull was a first shot goal scorer using a strong wrist shot, but more likely a booming slapshot, where the tip of his stick touched the rafters before he let it go. He had exceptional straight ahead speed, and was powerful, but not a great puck handler or passer. So, I think it’s ‘least similar’
bobby was fun to watch though. My brother and I talked our dad into bringing us in to see him in the old Edmonton Garden in the first WHA year.
I loved the Edmonton Gardens especially minor hockey week.
He was electric, no doubt.
What a treat watching the line Nilsson-Hull-Hedberg as well as the Magic Man.
McDavid is basically Pavel Bure and Adam Oates as one hockey player.
For me a big caveat about what Nuge can do and other players who haven’t been tearing the cover off the ball in a while is having a disciplined system, hopefully correct and tailored to the players they have, so that the regular players just go to the right places and don’t have to think too much. It slows their play down, and having to make too many decisions lead to the screw ups on backtracking that kept happening, and net front coverage breakdowns
Babcock basically said what Adam Oates has said that I have brought up, that certain tactics make it really hard for a lot of guys to contribute. The top guys will still but likely diminished. The Oilers weren’t playing to a system consistently, and I think whatever Knob was trying to do wasn’t right anyways. The level of top talent hid a lot of sins to me. Injuries were a big thing, but a less talented team beat them twice because they were more organized, thinking less, in a better head space, and pounced repeatedly on the Oilers disorganization
Bob was good, but they made him look a lot better than he was by not exploiting his weaknesses and playing to his strengths. I think Connor and Leon know these things from what they have been saying
I was very impressed with how Babcock put it, learn the details we want and play them, then find your game within what we’re doing. And I think it was Bowman saying they would be going to the net more. Music, I hope it actually happens this time
Think Babs is trying to square this circle, and it’s possible that there may finally be the pieces on the chess board to make it work.
Maybe it’s tight adherence to systems play, maybe it’s maturity, maybe it’s Maybeline. All I know is I hope there’s an answer to this and we see its emergence as a tool in the toolbox that allows Babs to switch up looks and maintain pressure on the opposition. We know the Glimmer Twins will play together, I just hope it’s utilized strategically and doesn’t create a black hole in its wake.
There was a time when playing 97 & 29 together (with Kassian) meant that Nuge’s wingers were Khaira and Puljujarvi, or James Neal and Kailer Yamamoto. Hardly a recipe for 93’s success.
With wingers like Hyman and Howard / Savoie, I’m pretty sure our second line can be successful enough to load of the top-line a little more often.
Absolutely. Wasn’t long ago pre-season scoring champ Ty Rattie was on Connor’s wing as well.
There’s more depth, even if the names aren’t as flashy as they are in other markets.
I like them apart as well but I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that they can’t formulate a bottom 9 that can saw off or even out score as a group.
We don’t know what Issac Howard is – maybe he’s. 25 goal you today. I think the reports of Nuge’s cliff are premature and I think he and Hyman have had lots of success together, in fact, I don’t think, I know – playoff numbers prove that.
We don’t know what level Frederic will bounce back to. I see near 15 goals.
We don’t know what Formenton may bring, he may not be an NHL player but he may re-find his prior NHL game.
We don’t know what we don’t know and we definitely do not know what all of these guys will look like under Babcock and under his systems.
LT is providing us with a reasonable take. Nuge has not regularly played centre in years and his numbers without McDrai are middling at best. And before you say “Hyman and RNH were 50% GF together” — that’s not good enough for a championship second line. Especially when lines 3 and 4 will struggle to score.
The Oilers could maybe populate lines 2-4 if everything breaks perfectly. That does not seem like a great plan.
I think to be an elite team we either need:
line 1 – 60% goal share
2 – 50%
3 – 50
4 – 50%
or
55%
55%
50%
50%
When I look at it that way I think both are attainable. Basically the top two lines should average 55% goal share. Drai McD should be 60% GF. Some Nuge/Hyman/Podz/Howard combo should be good for 50%. We will run into issues if Drai McD arent completely dominant though, which they weren’t last year (i think they were around 55%).
I’m providing another take, which I also believe is reasonable.
50% together over three years but also well above that in the playoffs, with legit sample sizes over the years. We can talk about the middling performances but we should also acknowledge the strong performances and that we don’t know what we’ll see from them this year.
Also (1) I’m confident there will be plenty of McDavid and Drai apart, in particular on the road – this isn’t a full time 2C job for Nuge I don’t think and (2) McDavid and Drai should be over 60% together, they have been in the past prior to the last couple of years when Knob used them very unstrageically. A 63% line along with a top 1-5 PP, as long as the PK is serviceable likely is just fine if the bottom 9 is 50% – I’m not positive the bottom 9 can’t be better than 50% – we’ll find out.
I think Howard and Levi have made this year fun. It’s been awhile since the Oilers had a couple of younger guys with pedigree pushing for key roles.
If Levi can become a quality NHL starter and Howard and float a second line, this team will be wicked smart.
Basically, I missed HOPE-ing.
Completely agree. The effect of youthful energy can’t be measured but I believe it’s incredibly important and has been lacking.
Per Janson:
Babcock loves Nuge (as do I) and has for sometime. I recall an interview probably 10 years ago with him that said something to the effect of how many minutes McDavid got and we already had a 1C in Nuge who was ‘a pretty good player’. After all these years he still really holds him in high regard. Unfortunately it has been ~10 years and we’re a couple years away from capable 2C line driving Nuge. If he’s healthy, which I don’t feel he was 100% last year AND gets good wingers, conveniently sorted by our host this morning it ‘might’ work IF the system does. That’s a lot to go right in short order.
Hyman should help. I widh Matt Savoie was healthy. That would help Babcock populate the top two lines. I feel Howard will be under a lot of pressure here to perform right away. I like his long-term ability as a guy who won’t drown without the puck, but this is a quick immersion.
Sink or swim for Howard. I prefer this option then starting him on an offence-allergic third or fourth line.
Hyman will help and I wish they would put Howard with McDavid and Drai allowing Podz to also help.
At the same time, I can see being with Nuge and Hyman a solid landing spot for Howard.
Shit, maybe Howard “drives” the line?
I’d like it better if Howard, RNH, and Hyman were the third line instead of the second. Not enough depth to make it happen though. Unless
Joseph McDavid Savoie
Podz Draisaitl Kapanen
Howard RNH Hyman
Dach Dickinson Frederic
1 RW and 2 LW not good enough
Ekholm was a clear first pair dman last year. Babs moved him down allowing others (Shea) to move up. Not an insult to ek if he can anchor a third pair then move up when needed. Better for the team.
To move Nuge to 3lw may be better for Nuge and the team…… the barrier is there is no obvious 2C to push him down.
Very early things will change.
I see a lot of people writing off the Nuge, and frankly it’s blasphemy.
Given the extended offseason my gut feeling is he has a great season that defies aging curve projections. He’s a player I see aging gracefully and maintaining a high level of play longer than most would suspect.
Rishaug talking about how fast and Athletic Levi looks. From account, this kid is desperate for the NHL and to prove he’s ready and able.
I was surprised we obtained him for so little? He’s a fun goalie to watch I always seen him good in Buffalo and thought he was well on his way to becoming the starter. Bowman has this kid circled on his bingo card for the future. Andersen-Jarry can mentor this kid to becoming the starter. A French Canadian that is a reflex goalie I love it. In fact I love the 3 headed approach as this takes off the pressure on all three. If and when all three are healthy have the starter on the back-to -back games go ahead spend the night in that City be fresh and prepared for the following night. It’s a long season I believe we have 8-9 back-to-backs.
Lost in the shuffle with UPL, Lyon and Ellis.
They made the choice of Lyon and Ellis over Levi and, hopefully, they made a poor choice – I am excited about the potential here. Seems like a very hard working and motivated kid – with his athleticism and quickeness (from what I’ve heard and read), with coaching and what not, lets go!
The last French Canadian panned out pretty good for Bowman in Chi-town
Re: Freddy
Teams delude themselves into thinking their nasty player can hold up on a skill line, and it never works for them.
But it might work for us.
It’s great when it works, see: Maroon, or Kane… and predictable when it doesn’t. See: Averages, Law of.
Lines this morning, courtesy Bob
Draisaitl-McDavid-Podkolzin
Formenton-Dach-Joseph
Jones-Samanski-Howard
Nicholl-Michaels-Griffith
Bookman-Stonehouse
Shea-Bouchard
Stastney-Emberson
Stillman-Brown
Carfagna-Robinson
Jarry
Tomkins
I’m not a fan of Nicholl on LW.
I don’t know why they don’t have him at center. Bako center depth looks weak as well – I presume he will play mostly center for the Condors.
That 2nd line is damn fast and can play pressure hockey.