The Oilers are three games into this season and some of the individual stats are amazing. Please read this.
There are six forwards over 2.4 pts-60 at five-on-five, and none of those are Zach Hyman or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. One of them is Ike Howard. The top forward is Connor McDavid, 6.33 pts-60. He is second on the team. First on the team? Evan Bouchard, 7.45 pts-60. The guy who can’t get arrested in Norris voting is hammering opponents with his offensive wizardry. You love to see it.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 0-0-1
- On the road: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Seattle (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- On the road to: Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles (1-1-1)
- At home to: Mammoth (1-0)
- On the road to: Mammoth (0-1)
- At home to: Minnesota, Carolina, Toronto, Detroit, Calgary (3-2)
- On the road to: New York Islanders (1-0)
- Expected Record: 9-4-1, 19 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 2-0-1, five points in three games
This California trip is going to take a week and there are only three games. After the first three-game stanza, this one feels like a leisure trip. Hopefully, the Oilers keep the quality of play at something close to Kraken level. Today, I’d like to talk about the lines.
The top line of Vasily Podkolzin-Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl has played 26 minutes at five-on-five. The trio is 4-0 goals, 75 percent expected goals and 14-4 shots. That’s dominant. If the Oilers could find three good lines and run this without worry of falloff, the Stanley Cup would be in the city next summer. Babcock has played the line in two of three games, and the line was together at practice yesterday.
The line of Trent Frederic-Jason Dickinson-Kasperi Kapanen haven’t played together yet because Dickinson has yet to play a regular-season shift. That should come on the California trip. Frederic is 1-1 goals (40 percent expected) and Kapanen is 1-5 goals in 20 minutes but 58 percent expected. Kapanen is money with Leon, fool’s gold everywhere else.
Josh Samanski-Colton Dach-Ike Howard is a modern ‘Kid Line” in the making and I’d really like to see the line with Samanski in the middle. This line has played one second together at five-on-five. I like all three players, but Howard is the key in my opinion. If Babcock can’t run him with Leon, will he put the young scorer with Nuge and Hyman? I don’t believe he will. In that case, the possibility of a trade enters the chat.
Alex Formenton-Owen Michaels-Mathieu Joseph have played together 20 minutes, and are 2-2 goals, 33 percent expected. I am impressed by Michaels, and every line Formenton lands on outscores (5-2 goals at five-on-five this season). I think Babcock likes this line, and even though I’m listing them fourth, chances are the trio lands higher on the depth chart tonight.
The key issue for team building is Ike Howard. His most common linemates this season at five-on-five are Trent Frederic, Josh Samanski and Owen Michaels. Meanwhile, over in Vegas, Trevor Connelly’s most common linemates are Viktor Olofssson and Tomas Hertl. Which of these two young players do you believe will develop more this season?
You have to decide, as a fan, how much you believe in an organization’s commitment to a young player. Stan Bowman traded for Howard, he’s going to wait a long time unless Mike Babcock starts scratching him. However, we’re already seeing Babcock fade him a little. Here are the primary lines for Howard in each of the first three games:
- Game 1: Howard-Michaels-Frederic: 6:55, 2-3 shots, 29X
- Game 2: Howard-Samanski-Frederic 6:34, 2-4 shots, 1-1 goals, 39X
- Game 3: Howard-Samanski-Frederic 4:07, 1-1 shots,57X
The line Howard played on for the first three games scored 1-1 goals, 5-8 shots. The winger promoted? Trent Frederic. So, you know Babcock’s thinking. He, like every coach since Toe Blake (who reportedly hated playing Yvan Cournoyer on anything other than the power play), is fading youth. Bowman, on the other hand, is team building. Katz? Doesn’t care. Keep McDavid happy, because signing him is the biggest priority. I get that. We get that.
However, when someone writes or says “Howard has to earn it” ask them “why didn’t Trevor Connelly have to earn it?” and the answer is the two teams view talented youth differently.
Stubborn coaches have a lot to recommend them. I loved Craig MacTavish as a coach, he could whip up a strong five-on-five team between 1 and 3am every day. However, his most talented offensive player (Ales Hemsky) began flourishing during the lockout season, far from MacT and the NHL. Hemsky got to play with creative talent and it paid off.
Fans will say “Howard failed” if he doesn’t make it in Edmonton. The reality is the Oilers haven’t yet given him a real chance. Hopefully that changes in the days to come. The Oilers did move Matt Savoie up a year ago in the second half of the season, but he had demonstrably wider range as a player. Howard is in a tough spot. Babcock isn’t making things better. Everyone serves somebody. Babcock is serving the owner. Who can blame him? Well, you can. If you are of a mind to do it.
On the Lowdown today, Kevin McCurdy will be my feature guest and we’ll talk Oilers in California, Condors, and MLB classics being played in the Brewers-Padres series right now. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Are we witnessing the start of a Paul Coffey record-breaking season by Evan Bouchard? He will reach 50 if he manages to score 11 in the next four 20-game segments.
Orr and Coffey hold the 10 highest scoring seasons by defensemen ever between them – 5 each. No other defenseman has ever scored more than 103 points, but I think that’s achievable for Bouchard this year.
Coffey and Orr are also the only two defensemen ever to score 40 goals in a single season (Orr once, Coffey twice), it’s just not that easy for a defenseman to do. This century only Mike Green (31 in 2009) and Cale Maker (30 in 2025) have even crested the 30 mark. I’d certainly temper expectations on 50 for Bouch.
Dev Lev is looking more and more like the real deal!
And we got him for just a 3rd rounder, what a a steal!
Not to mention, the Sabres added a 7th rounder, which is the round Levi was selected in.,,,
Let’s hope he is able to keep it up!
By none other than FLA, to boot.
Good on Devon Levi but of course Stuart Skinner had a great game against Colorado today too
First three game winning streak a bit earlier than last season.
This one feels real.
Babs is deploying the leagues best offense so far.
2nd pairing and 4th line had poor evenings.
As did the Ducks?
Ducks have gone 2 straight games without scoring even strength. I’d say they have bigger issues.
Appreciated Emberson’s physical play on the back end, a few good hits that made me wince.
Great win but am not happy about ice time once the game was in the bag.
McD, Bouch and Shea win the TOI. Only ones over 20, but well over.
Howard 4th least, Dickenson last.
They need to get Dicky up to game speed. You’ll see his number climb over the next few games.
I thought we would get a shortie to end it. Hallander is in Samanski back to the farm working on his pace and edges.
Oilers show up for the 2nd period. Very nice.
Showed for the 2nd and 3rd in my opinion.
Sure, but they often forget about the 2nd.
It’s a marathon, not a race. 5-2? Sit back and defend… a term which may cause PTSD
What is this Goaltending!
Mature game
It felt weird not being petrified of every shot against.
Very nice
PK a bit wobbly early, but lots to like in periods 2 and 3
Levi looks very comfortable in there
Fun game.
Oilers have found a goaltender..
A reflex goalie a Mike Palmateer throwback. Andersen still gets game one of the playoffs against Utah.
Levi played very well tonight.
but I know better than to get excited about an Edmonton Oilers goalie
Truth.
Offer Freddy Andersen a goalie-coach extension?
What a professional last 40 minutes.
What happened after the first?
Did Babs says something or adjust something? Did the players just get their shit together?
Devon Levi, have a couple of nights…..
Two terrific periods of hockey.
To me eye, they stopped having F2 pressure deep and instead had him track the opposing C high with F1 flying hard back to pressure behind the puck. The Ducks really try to fly the dzone and this deployment turned it into a stalemate.
Exactly this
Bouch happened!!!
Levi did a really good job on the 6 on 3. Just steady and making the simple play.
I don’t understand why someone wouldn’t take a major to send a message to Senneke. Game is in the bag
Two hands please.
You may as well crosscheck Sennecke now. Repeatedly.
Babs was right, that was a dive.
Ducks were selling the calls well
They like to cheat-steal-scam in California
I’m loving Levi so far.
Man. To give up a 2on1 on the PP at that stage of the game…. Yikes. Who got caught there?
Not a hook.
5-2, 5mins left and you don’t start PP2? Stubborn donkey
Sennecke throws Leon into Levi and nothing? What the actual F?! He better get a stick, fist, or elbow later. Send Podz after him.
Refs want to run off the clock
Miss Klim Kostin. We haven’t had a guy like him for quite awhile
Wtf are refs doing yelling at a goalie to play the puck?
“It’s late! I want to go back to the hotel”
A goalie should never listen to the zebra there – will almost never work out in your favor
Is a goalie not allowed to cover the puck at any time? What the heck? Refs showing that they are actually just game managers. Joke league. Wow.
Someone needs to drop a Messier elbow on Sennecke.
This is BS.
100%. He’s been filthy tonight and someone needs to just let him have it.
He almost takes out Draisaitl AND Levi, plus all the other BS hes done tonight. Someone needs to take a huge run at him.
It’s Draisaitl’s turn to get a suspension
100%
Especially now , 6 on 2 isn’t a thing. Lol
Levi has been very good tonight. Have to think Jarry will be under pressure next game to have a good showing.
The Anahiem home feed has been fantastic as compared to sportsnet.
That’s a low bar….. SN sucks
Soooo much better…good job oilers. Thought you guys stayed on th3 beach having Margaritas but it looks like they woke up and Babcock got em moving their feet…
Please sir, mo’ minutes for the poor.
Michaels having a hell of a game. Samanski is not coming back to Edmonton Bakersfield bound.
I wonder if there’s a moved made before Saturdays game, they have the day off tomorrow.
Good test here in the 3rd.
As a coach who “doest know” his roster, I get it. Run the glimmer twins and gain some wins as the roster shakes itself out? I’m still confused about that decision, I don’t get it at all.
Anyway, up by three in the 3rd… pull out the blender and see what sticks. Don’t give the game away, but don’t be narrow minded. Aka, split up McDrai.
Jarry starts San Jose “Levi gets one, Jarry gets two”…. game two of the road trip. Jarry has his work cut out for him. Levi has given two good performances, tonight being sterling.
Imagine McDrai got split up, found their wingers, and Savoie-Nuge-Hyman was their third line, instead of their second.
Unicorns do exist, and Nuge is 3rd C.
Levi looking solid tonight.
Next trip to Anaheim, can they leave Samanski in the press box?
If Levi can keep his save percentage above .900 we might be in business this year.
Not Samski’s best showing.
What an in game adjustment. It wasn’t just hustle. They’re tracking so well through the neutral zone. Ducks have no answer. They can’t get any speed through the neutral zone.
Track through middle of ice. Beat them to high slot. Starts with angling properly in O zone and getting up on their hips. Simple
Let’s see if Babcock calls off the hounds are he keeps pressing for more goals.
Anaheim had an unsustainably high PDO heading into this game, while Edmonton’s was unsustainably low.
Good old time Oiler period all we need is a couple of scraps by the bottom six showng Queeneville who the real boss is.
Dickinson having a good first game.
I take full credit…I happen to know that Drai and Co. read my comments here and take it to heart and thus, in an effort to prove me wrong they took over and started to dominate. A-holes.
Bouch smashes that Coffey goal scoring record this year. Bookje it!
What would the equivalency be if he does that I wonder…Scoring 50 in today’s game has to be close to 65 in the mid-80s.
In 1985-86, the year Coffey scored 48, NHL teams scored an average of 317.5 goals, or 3.97 per game. Total scoring (for and against) averaged 7.94 goals per game.
In 25-26, NHL teams averaged 252.7 goals scored, or 3.08 per game. Total scoring averaged 6.16 goals per game, which indicates that Coffey’s 48 then is equivalent to 37 now. Or to put it another way, 50 goals today would be equivalent to 64 in 1986.
However, since it’s rare to beat a goalie clean from distance nowadays, defensemen don’t have the same opportunities to score as they did then. Case in point: only 2 defensemen have scored 30 in this century – Mike Green (31 in 08-09) and Cale Makar (30 in 24-25).
Damn that’s a good period!
If the other 3 lines can hold the fort, we currently have Maxwell’s Silver Hammer
McDrai, Bouchard and Ekholm all +4 so far. Podkolzin +3.
Yup, that period will do.
Jack lololol with the super weird analogy that Louie didn’t want to touch.
They’ve just out skilled them this period
Levi timely saves to maintain the momentum. Too often Oiler Gs would just give it right back
Seems like he tracks the puck very well. Sneaky athletic. Maybe not rare for an NHL goalie, but rare for an Oilers goalie!
They’re not only scoring a lot of goals but they’re winning every draw.
Oh Dostal that was bad but yea!! Drai racking up the apples!
Dostal…he’s no bueno
Pullstal