Tragedy yesterday at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright. Details are coming in but there’s plenty we don’t know. Our thoughts are with the injured, and those familes at the base who have lost a loved one or are waiting word. Godspeed to those working difficult hours in helping. That base endured a terrible accident and now experience trauma and anxiety today and the days to come. Our doctors and nurses will be pressed to the max. We are thinking of all of them. To our military, we are so very sorry this happened. Know we are thinking of you today.
Last night, he Edmonton Oilers played at what must be considered the outer marker for the current roster. Flowers for all.
Connor McDavid earned special mention with one of the best games of his career. Fast, skilled, brilliant, but with an added helping of smart work in turning over pucks. McDavid has been adding skills one on another every year of his career. It looks like the arrival of Mike Babcock as coach coincided with the captain’s balls-out work without the puck.
McDavid’s final goal of the game perfectly reflects what Babcock has helped bring out in the world’s best hockey player: making every ince of ice traveled without the puck focused on getting the puck back.
In hockey terms, we are watching Superman turning into Superman Prime One Million.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 0-0-1
- On the road: Vancouver (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Seattle (Expected 1-0) Actual 1-0-0
- On the road to: Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles (1-1-1) Actual 3-0-0
- At home to: Mammoth (1-0) Actual 0-1-0
- On the road to: Mammoth (0-0-1) Actual 1-0-0
- At home to: Minnesota, Carolina, Toronto, Detroit, Calgary (3-2)
- On the road to: New York Islanders (1-0)
- Expected Record: 9-3-2, 20 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 6-1-1, 13 points in eight games
The Oilers are 29-16 (64 percent) goals at even strength. That number will regress, but Edmonton is 8-8 on special teams and that should improve. First place in the Pacific by points percentage this morning. Armed with hockey’s version of the Justice League (McDavid is Superman, so that must mean Draisaitl is Batman and Evan Bouchard is the Green Lantern. Sucks for Bouchard!) and Babcock’s three ‘here comes the drudge’ lines that ground and pound opponents every shift, the team looks, well, like a winner. Interesting team, with more talent coming off the IR in the days to come.
- Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl 15:15, 6-5 shots, 3-0 goals 45X
- Hyman-Dach-Kapanen 12:51, 2-3 shots, 53X
- Formenton-Michaels-Joseph 9:10, 3-8 shots, 1-1 goals 43X
- Howard-Frederic-Hallander 8:01, 3-4 shots, 0-1 goals, 41X
Five goals on 20 five-on-five shots is a 25 percent success rate. You aren’t going to lose many games with a shot percentage of 25. When the shooting percentage regresses, and it will, the Oilers will have that strong work ethic and attention to detail going for them. This is a sweet ride of a season for Oilers fans. When Wayne Gretzky was 29, he scored 6-10-16 in his first eight games. McDavid after eight games this year? 6-17-23. Amazing.
I usually ramble on about splitting 97-29 but I give up. It doesn’t make sense but the team is 6-1-1 and the top line is going to score over 100 goals all by their lonesome this season. Historic. Pace. Part them when the scoring eases.
The rest of the forwards worked hard and consistently battled for the puck and gave up ground grudgingly. The Drudge Grudge lines didn’t shut out the Mammoth but delayed progress until the time bell rang.
Trent Frederic’s fight against Jack McBain was a helluva tilt. Zach Hyman scored in his first game back, Kasperi Kapanen is up to three goals now. Colton Dach had three high-danger chances, Filip Hallander and Mathieu Joseph had two (Joseph scoring on a breakaway). Utah is a good team. Oilers forwards played well. Run it back. Why not?
- Ekholm-Bouchard 19:18, 6-9 shots, 2-0 goals, 55X
- Shea-Murphy 16:57, 6-7 shots, 0-2 shots, 46X
- Walman-Emberson 12:31, 4-4 shots, 1-0 goals, 64X
- Tristan Jarry 26 of 28, .929. Five-on-five: 23 of 25, .920
Evan Bouchard was effective and (like McDavid and Draisaitl) doing things to make himself a more complete player. Blocking shots, taking fewer risks, generally playing a more mature game. Jake Walman had a good game in his return, Ty Emberson belongs in the lineup every game. Tristan Jarry played well, lost the shutout on a great shot and the fluke goal was unfair based on the goalie’s performance but didn’t impact the outcome of the game. Just six HDSC is a reflection of intelligence and hard work.
CONDORS NUMBERS
New for The Athletic: Damien Carfagna and Tomas Cibulka are NHL-ready or close. There’s no room for them on the Oilers. Will Edmonton repeat the Philip Broberg mistake, or will the team adapt?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7698776/2026/10/18/edmonton-oilers-young-defence-prospects-minors/
Emberson is a pending UFA. Unlikely that the Oilers can afford him. Shakir is looking more like a suspect than anything else. So there is room for them next year.
They are both left shot D (Cibulka playing the right side in the pairing) so neither will be the Emberson replacement. I think they will get Emberson re-signed for a reasonable deal – there is cap room.
I think it’s likely that at least one of, if not both of, Carfagna and Cibulka will get some NHL games this season. I believe it’s fairly normal for teams to need 10-12 d-men through the season.
Regula will be in the mix (right shot) when healthy but Carfagna has to be the next guy.
Right now there is Shakir and then they are in to that trio.
With Walman’s injury history (continuing) and Ekholm being at his age (I’m not injuring him, and he played all 82, but there is already load management happening there) and Murphy having a substantial injury history, well, the Oilers D has been quite healthy so far and that won’t last forever.
What is the timeline of Mr. Andersen returning?
Also, been gone a while. Did the resident troll drop off?
Nothing official but December is the general thought.
Canes play the Flames tonight and then are off until their game in Edmonton on Thursday – they will be rested, that’s for sure.
And the Oilers will have had a good tune up vs. Wild.
Is the rubber meeting the road?
I appreciate your thoughts on Wainwright. I only did an exercise there once (having only been a reservist for a couple of years) but the unit I was with still mourned a loss years after an accident occurred there. I’m sure the scale of this will stick with members & families for decades.
Going with the Justice League metaphor, does that make Formenton & Joseph the Wonder Twins? Is Podkolzin Wonder Woman (Linda Carter era)? Who is Aquaman? Is it Mukhamadullin or Frederic bc they’ve been under water so much?
Great win last night, loved that they used the opportunity to send a message on the scoresheet & in the alley.
The Oilers currently have the number one PDO in the league, 1.088
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php
Also the highest goals scored above expected.
https://x.com/jfreshhockey/status/2111830983003574738?s=46
I feel like the Oilers have been bit hard by the wrong side of the PDO Pony over the years, especially to begin the season.
Nice to build the cushion while the second line is injured. We’ll see who the team really is in November, but this is the kind of luck you need to win a division.
Dennis King had mentioned that the Oilers aren’t seeing a lot of shots from the non Bouchard defensemen. That appears to be an intentional strategy and one that will bolster team shooting percentage.
Back in the past, we used to watch Nurse float wrist shots in from the blue line with almost no chance of going in.
Conversely, cutting down odd man rush changes against and breakaways, will dramatically improve team save percentage.
Still a 108.8 PDO is searing hot.
Speaking of Nurse. . . Does anyone remember what “icing” is?
I don’t think we’ve had any pucks deflected off our d-men into the net yet either.
A few months ago Lowetide used Tom Waits’ Rain Dogs for his musical theme. The thread featured posts about Nurse and someone suggested Bowman would be able to trade Nurse without retention. My response was that I would “fall out the window with confetti in my hair” if Stan pulled it off.
I haven’t posted much since then, I have been busy picking the paper bits from my scalp.
Disclaimer – I love how Nurse carries himself and works for the betterment of his community. I have always been conflicted by the incongruity of my assessment of him as a person and my assessment of his play.
I agree that Nurse’s overall demeanor, strong friendship with the core and the fact he seems like an otherwise good guy is part of what made the conversations about him so heated. I was one of the people who thought he was a flawed but serviceable 2LD, but seeing what Shea is accomplishing in that spot at almost half the cap hit is undoubtedly huge for this team going forward. SB deserves an A+ for that bit of business. Add on that signing Shea may have precipitated the trade of Stastney for Hallander (since the Penguins were suddenly in such bad need of depth on LD), and it’s starting to feel like SB may be playing 4D chess over here.
A lot of Oilers fans had blinders on with respect to Nurse – I couldn’t care at all what type of person he is in the community or who he’s tight with in the locker room. I cheer for the crest on the front, not the name on the back. I want to see my team win it all … and Nurse was a detriment to winning. He wasn’t just overpaid … he had become easy to play against.
I always knew he could be traded though … NHL GMs are suckers for players with the kind of tools and reputation that Nurse has.
Indeed, he’s kind of a Jack Johnson 2.0 in that respect
Podkolzin certainly doesn’t think he is easy to play against – the opposite in fact, if one believes his express words “hard to play against”.
No doubt the heater will regress, in particular the shooting percentage portion.
This should be somewhat mitigated by the power play unticking by an 8-10% margin over current – Hyman plus Nuge back led.
Solid win last night. LT has it right – super line plus 3 heavy grinding lines. Looks good so far. Let’s see how things go against some better teams and with guys getting healthy.
I found the 3rd period a bit concerning. Until McDavid scored I was concerned they were going to play the entire period in their own end. That poke check was pure magic.
Jarry looked solid. Happy for him and 🤞it continues.
If all of Trent, Jake, and Jarry can be Jacks instead of Jesters…
Those smiles from the bench just won Frederic a lot leeway with me. When was the last time we saw something like that? Turtle-gate? One of Kane’s romps maybe? it’s nice to see.
Credit who you like, it’s just an all-around different vibe this year from last season.
I ended last season with hope that TF was turning a corner. Glad to see he’s clearly feeling it this year. I don’t think he’ll exactly be considered a value contract at any point, but if this is what we get for at least 4-5 years then I think that adds tremendous value for our bottom 6
With cap expansion even Nurse became reasonable. If TF plays like he has there’s value there
It was always my hope that Trent could be baseline decent, and that cap growth would make the contract more palatable. Best case Oil would scrape out a cup and EDM could ride out the back end as a sop to a championship vet. Like Buchy say.
Sending wishes to Wainwright from VI.
We know +/- is a flawed stat but sometimes it has value.
Of the best +/- through 8 games in NHL history we have:
McDavid 2026-27 +19
Gretzky 1984-85 +19
Kurri 1984-85 +19
Brian Engblom (Habs) 1981-82 +18
Bouchard 2026-27 +17
Historic numbers, 1/10 of the way through the season.
It’s so crazy haha.
This Oilers team is not a dump and chase team but they have become a team that is willing to make a smart dump and work to get the puck back.
McDavid is pure supernova mode but it includes very little attempts at dangling though layers of defenders but often employing a strategic dump and chase.
Leta also note the strategic nature of most dumps with the puck out in places where they have a plus chance of recovering.
Babcock!
It’s not too early to say that the Babcock naysayers here were/are wrong. And also not too early to say that had Babcock been the coach instead of Knoblauch that our chances of winning a cup, particularly in 2024, would have been a lot greater. Let’s also not underestimate the influence of DJ Smith who is clearly brilliant.
So far so good. I hope DJ sorts his PK out soon
I think most thought Babcock had a chance to succeed. Example:
“Could Babcock succeed in Edmonton? The answer is yes, Babcock is a solid coach who values possession, cheating for defence, puck support and passing skills. Babcock would bring discipline and defensive responsibility to the Oilers’ game. That would be a net positive based on the chaos fans saw for much of last season.”
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7343414/2026/06/10/edmonton-oilers-mike-babcock-investigation/
Count me in as one who was / is in favour of a disciplinarian with a fresh approach. Even with this, I had concerns that more defensive structure would stifle creativity and offence, but that hasn’t been the case.
The goalering has also exceeded expectations.
Things are rhyming and this week will be an awesome measuring stick.
For sure there were lots that thought he had a chance to succeed but I would suggest there were also lots that though it would/will be a catastrophe and not just Mike Commodore.
One day at a time but so far so good.
For me, much of that concrn comes from issues away from the ice. Those concerns will remain as long as Babcock coaches, but as you say there are good things happening. Some regression to come, but I’m liking several things about the Babcock Oilers.
I don’t disagree but (1) potential issues away from the ice are part of the entire package and (2) lots also suggested that he was too old school and had been away from the league for too long, etc., etc. I think there was a loud contingent questioning his ability to coach the team to success.
And it seems clear that those opinions were largely influenced by stuffs other than things related to winning hockey games.
The Lilers appear to be making decisions based on things related to winning hockey games and it feels good to me.
I don’t mind DJ Smith but he needs to come to terms that Ekholm is still that guy, Shea good player but he isnt Ekholm.
Ekholm has not made it to the playoffs healthy the last two years. Nothing wrong with load management.
Thanks for the write up LT, thoughts are with the Wainwright Canadian Forces members.
So one gripe I’ve had over the years with our high octane Oilers is the centers position in the defensive zone. Last night during a play the center was behind our net retrieving the puck to outlet (or carry), I literally said out loud “oh my God there’s a center playing defensive hocke”, his jersey showed as he turned and it was of course, McDavid. I was so happy. More please!
— was at game. Weird non trad market. Nice arena. Was in the upper area in a terrace. Very sharp. Cool sight lines. Great service lots of bathrooms.
— some Oiler fans. Lots of music. Fans were deflated.
— game seemed a lot closer than score. Anytime McD gets 5 points that’s a lock.
— Bottom lines sure grind hard
— Who knows. But so far this year it’s all working
Hope guys let up on Frederic now. The guy has been very good this year.
Jarry 2 great games in a row.
Walman best game in Avery long time.
That in itself is a huge win
Frederic’s start was a disappointment, most of all for him. I’m not surprised he’s playing better, and think as they go the whole group will improve as they get used to everything. I also think the coaches will find more from other lines and that may involve some work by Bowman. The positive energy from the team and coaches is refreshing
He looks more comfortable at C. Imagine that … Babcock found value in a distressed asset by playing the guy where he is most confortable.
Your first paragraph is why you’re always a priority read for me. You’re always keeping life in perspective. While we all love hockey there a many things that are way more important in life. Your shout out to our armed forces in their moment of need of our support was exactly the right thing to do.
You do it all the time so it’s no surprise but I just wanted to say thanks again for doing that.
And it was great to read the Bissonness post too.
I served and lived in the Wainwright area at the tail end of my 20 year military career. I moved away about 12 years ago, but I still have ties in the area. I had trouble sleeping last night, trying to fathom what possibly could have happened there yesterday.
If it was due to exploding natural gas infrastructure, I wonder about how many near misses have occurred in the past 50 years that no one ever had a clue about. Scary stuff, as I was involved in several live fire exercises there early in my career.
The area often experiences significant winds. That is normally a consideration when planning for these exercises. Also, please be aware that the majority of the folks involved in the exercise were most likely not members of the Wainwright community, they are most likely Edmonton-based personnel. I am aware that an Edmonton-based unit had a large exercise scheduled there for this time period.
My thoughts are with all the people who have been impacted by this tragedy.
Thanks for sharing and thank you for your service good sir!
I served with the British repair facility there. I met my wife in JD’s. She was at college in Vermillion. That was about 2000. Did two tours, loved it and still have friends there.
I grew up in Wainwright and most of my family are still there. My cousin is a nurse at the hospital and she said it was the worst shift she’s ever worked.
I really feel for the families of those killed and hope for a speedy recovery for those that were injured.
Dach is not a centre. Last night his face-off stat was quite revealing . . .
1 win out of 12 attempts = 8.3%
Not a centre but could be an effective winger.
Yea need his big, aggressive body in the line up, just not at centre.
His faceoffs were the shots, but he played very well positionally
That’s what I’m hearing re position.
Maybe Babs will slide him over if Oil ever grab his brother. Dach Bro Supremacy (not that I’m advocating for that as the late season add).
Kirby Dach is the worst forward on the Habs this year, getting throttled playing 8 minutes per game as a winger.
I’d rather call up Raty.
53.3
55.6
57.1
Colton Dachs draw % in his 3 games before injury.
Was a bad night at the dot, otherwise Dach had a visually good game.
When everyone is back in the lineup (which may or may not happen), I think the centres are McDavid/Draisaitl on line 1, RNH on line 2, Michaels on line 3 and Frederic on line 4. Not sure where that leaves Dickinson.
Podz/McDavid/Draisaitl
Savoie/Nuge/Hyman
Dach/Dickinson/Frederic
Formenton/Michaels/Joseph
If Im Bowman, Im hunting a 2C, moving Nuge to wing, bumping Formenton or Joseph to 13th forward.
Howard is traded in the 2C deal.
Nuge/McDavid/Draisaitl
Podz/O’Reilly/Hyman
Savoie/Michaels/Joseph
Dach/Dick/Fred
Super Skill Heroes
Forechecking nasty demons
Fast & tenacious shut down line
Heavy & Physical shut down line
I’m ok with having to many Cs
I always stop far shot of equating face-offs with the ability to play center (I don’t think that being bad at face-offs means one is not a center or being good at face-offs means one can play center). With that said, while I did think that 2nd line was good early (not as good as the game went on), I look forward to Babcock, at some point, playing Dach on the wing where I think he can be highly effective.
My wife grew up in Wainwright. Her dad was in the military for 27 years, 23 for her mom. She has a lot of good friends out there still.
I’ve gone with my wife to Wainwright a couple of times. Including one wedding where I got left with the bachelor party while my wife went along with the Bachelorette. 30-40 guys who all grew up together and every single one of them worked at the base, or for John Deere (I swear those are the only 2 jobs available to a guy in Wainwright). And me. I had never met any of them. Being a pretty shy person, this was not my recipe for a good time.
They picked up on how I was feeling right away. Nicest bunch of guys. They were so welcoming and kept making a point of making me feel included and like I wasn’t just someone’s husband they had to babysit.
If there’s a town full of people who are capable, kind, and quick to help, it’s Wainwright.
This is crazy to see – we are the best defensive team in the league so far by expected goals against
https://x.com/jfreshhockey/status/2111830916045652121?s=46
I almost spilled my beer last night.
I’m not a systems guy, but I actually thought the Oilers were working the 1-3-1 trap while up in the game. The Mammoth seemed to adjust for the third and started dumping more.
It was a weird game to watch. We weren’t seeing the usual flood of odd man rushes against or neutral zone turn overs.
I did find some info about the change in neutral zone structure.
Under Knoblauch, the Oilers ran a 1-2-2 neutral zone structure.
This season, they’re running an aggressive 1-1-3 system designed to reduce odd man rushes against.
That’s interesting. There was a sport logic graphic going around that I think said we are second in the league this year in fewest rush chances against and last year we were near the worst. It’s early but pretty amazing what a month of good coaching can do.
On the pre-game Stauff mentioned they were averaging something like 2 rush chances against per game, best in the league.
What a turnaround it that area.
Now if they can fix the PK which had been immense in 2024.25. Ever since it has looked hopelessly fragile.
PK had killed off, I believe, 8 straight before the two given up in the first Utah game – was great again last night.
I think it’s going to continue to be a work in progress for a while – ups and downs but trending up. From what I read and heard, this type of pressure system is highly continent on the group of 4 working in unison – when one pressures, all four need to move. One of them being off can lead to wide open looks.
Oh man I want to see these 2 teams play a playoff series. The intensity in just a couple early season matches was juicy, imagine a 7 game series!
It would be a very physical series. This matchup has the potential to be a great rivalry.
Just noticed that Dickinson didnt play. Went back through the box scores and noticed that he played the California trip, but neither of the Mammoth games.
What happened? Where is he? Did he suffer a new injury or still dealing with the one from pre-season?
Injury during practice.
To add: coach said its not related to the ankle injury from last year.
Gregor’s update on, I believe Thursday, said he’s expected back during the road trip.
First place in the Pacific via points percentage but also 2nd in the league to Carolina.
Can’t wait to see this team perform against Minny and Carolina this week!
I’m looking forward to seeing these upcoming games. With due respect to the Mammoth, the easy part of the start of season schedule is over. Manny and Carolina are true contenders. Good measuring sticks and all that.
Adding 3 215 pound players in to the lineup, each of which can impact the game positively, that helped.
Hyman was Hyman but, as coach said, his legs left him half way through. He’s going to be a huge add.
THAT Jake Walman, well, if they can get that player consistently, this team will be scary good.
Very good game by Jarry. The premise of the tenders being better when the structure in front is better seems to be ringing true.
Forgetting the first 2 games against Canucks, they’ve played well. Can’t remember a weak goal against, which is a nice change.
They also dominated the 2nd game against the Canucks through 40 – things went off th rails but they were full value for the 8-2 lead they had.