The 11-2-3 Edmonton Oilers have already put themselves in a good position to win the Pacific Division, or at least finish in one of the top two slots. The team is No. 2 in Goals-60 (4.04) including all game states; No. 7 (2.81) in GA-60 in all game states, and No. 4 (59 pct) in goal share including all strengths. The three teams with superior goal shares are all better defensively: Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins and Minnesota Wild. If that’s the final four, can the Oilers bring Stanley home? Please read this.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
On the road: NYR, NJD (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-1
At home to: ANA, VAN, NYR, PHI (Expected 3-1-0)
On the road to: TOR, PHI, FLA, TBAY, CAR, STL (2-3-1)
At home to: VEG, SEA (1-0-1)
On the road to: SEA (1-0-0)
Expected Record: 8-5-2, 18 points in 15 games
Actual Record: 11-2-3, 25 points in 16 games
So, Mike Babcock has impacted the Oilers organization massively. We can’t rank him as a coach yet, but the early returns are quality and the range of skills being shown by the team’s best players is a major turn for the franchise.
There is still work to be done. If we accept the McDavid-Draisaitl line will run all season, then the next steps are finding two wingers for Nuge who can help push the river, finding a second and third pairing who can work well, and identifying the best playoff goalie on the roster. I like to monitor three stats through the season, checking on health, offensive performance and defensive acumen. I want to run the current roster line by line to see if we can find anything worth discussing.
This is the top line, and we see several brilliant numbers. The expected GA-60 is glorious, McDavid’s offense is beyond peak for normal humans, Draisaitl is exceeding expectations and Vasily Podkolzin is doing fine, but we might ask for a little more. If we were at a bar talking, I might say “do you think Zach Hyman or Matt Savoie replace Podkolzin eventually?” and we could talk about the offense. I like Podkolzin there, but I liked Savoie and Hyman there, too.
Leon Draisaitl’s foot speed is off the pace (he was over 90th percentile one year ago), but his fastest max speed came in the New Jersey game, so I expect his max is on the way. No real concerns here. Let’s go to the next.
This line is newer, so the tough start to the season for Colton Dach is reflected in the expected GA-60. The trio owns a 2.85 GA-60 as a line (in 47 minutes) and I do wonder if they can outscore that rate by a satisfactory margin. No worries so far, the line is blowing the lid off currently (6.41 GF-60). Nuge’s max speed is just average but last year he was flying and I suspect he’ll do it again. Dach is just all kinds of encouraging.
The offense, as seen here, is a concern. Nuge is on a hot streak currently, but Dacha and Kapanen are below par. Hyman and Savoie should arrive in the next few weeks, I don’t think the second line is set just yet.
I like Dickinson, his XGA-60 should be strong (it was lower 2’s after coming over last season) and if he can post 1.50+ points-60 it’ll be a good season. Has to stay healthy, and you want more speed. I think he’s a little above average (62nd percentile last season) so we’ll see. Alex Formenton is fast, and has posted offense, but I worry about his play when the puck is at 50-50. Dennis King on twitter has been pointing this out plenty this season, make sure to follow him. Mathieu Joseph was 77th percentile last season and that max speed should increase. His points-60 is fine, and the XGA-60 with Dickinson is zero.
I see all three of these men in some kind of trouble. Trent Frederic’s speed is back, and he should find the range offensively at some point this season, but the fourth line has to outscore and I don’t think that’s going to happen with 2.8 XGA-60. Ike Howard should be in the Dach position but he isn’t, we’ll see if Howard is still here post-new year and where he lands on the depth chart. Owen Michaels is a decent RH center who needs some AHL time. Send him down now, and then maybe he’s a spring recall. I’ll do the defensemen tomorrow, there’s a significant clue here about what we’ll be talking about in 24 hours.
On the Lowdown today, we will be joined by Bagged Milk from Daily Faceoff Edmonton to preview tonight’s game. We’ll also preview the NFL weekend and have a look at the best QB’s in the NFL draft next spring. Elks are over 30,000 tickets soldwe’ll talk about the big game Saturday. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Can Oilers’ Jake Walman follow Tristan Jarry’s lead and turn it around? There is a specific concern.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7753242/2026/11/05/edmonton-oilers-jake-walman-stats-tristan-jarry/
I suspect when Hyman returns he will solidify the top six and when Savoie returns he will add a little something to the bottom six. The emergence of Dach is the reason Savoie will probably be relegated to service on the third line. I like Owen Micheals but do believe he requires more seasoning in Bakersfield. Therefore the acquisision of a suitable fourth line center could certainly pay dividends. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
LT, who plays 4C then? Drai isn’t being moved to 2C so RNH and Dicky won’t be moved down a wrung. Samanski isn’t having a good season with the Condors.
I would suggest a small deal to bring in a veteran RH center (Derek Ryan the younger) who can PK.
Maybe they should go out a target a solid RHC for the fourth line. Kind of as I’ve been saying.
If you run 97, 93 and Dickinson, the fourth line is eight minutes. That’s not an impact position.
Yes, if the goaltending remains solid.
Might be a silly question, but I’m going to ask it anyways. Given that all 3 of the centres are sitting at or below 50th percentile for max speed and have history of being a tad quicker, is it possible it’s a systems induced thing? Like if they’re doing the dump, wingers are the ones flying into the corners and the centre is coasting in behind could that be the cause?
I also acknowledge both Nuge and Dickinson are coming back from injury so maybe that’s playing a part in impacting their numbers.
I’ll add to that question in wondering how the speed is calculated, and if it is situation specific. We likely don’t have the answers, especially if the calculation method is protected, but I have wondered this before.
My feeling on Draisaitl is that he is always in a lower gear prior to Christmas, and turns up as the season goes on, as far as foot speed goes.
Had a quick check and Drai is 67th %, so much quicker than the other folks, but still not exactly a fast train on the season. He was 92nd % last season, so the drop in speed for centres on the Oilers seems to track.
You can see game by game numbers. But context matters. There is no situation but I gave the example of Dach when folks were pining for him.
Speed was 74th percentile or something so ppl said he was back to normal. But he only had 1 burst over their highest threshold and that was 6 on 4 with an empty net. Every player in the NHL can go fast with nothing but daylight and a ticking clock. The rest of his game had to that point been well below 50%, which coincided with his multiple leg injuries.
The method is literally a chip in their jerseys that monitors speed. Not infallible but pretty unlikely to bug out in a way that wouldn’t be obvious.
I think you have a point. Someone a bit ago showed how the oilers went from primarily Rush chances in previous seasons to the dump chase model. I would think the lack of rush chances slows down average speeds.
That would make some sense, especially if we include Draisaitl in that. I haven’t really paid attention to it, but I’ve heard from my brothers who watch the games with me, and from a few other sources McDavid is mostly playing the wing position on the top line (faceoffs notwithstanding).
That would make sense to have the fastest player in the game jumping into the corners and letting drai coast to scoring position. It would explain why all of the centers are not only shy with their speed, but also are all slower than their wingers for each line.
This is a really good question. I have no answer for you, but I think is important to consider. I don’t really trust the Edge numbers other than to say they’ve been below/at/above average, but if you don’t factor in systems effects then it becomes even more difficult to trust. The fact all of our centers look slower than last year seems to track with that interpretation though.
It absolutely is systems. One could infer speed bursts create more rush chances, but this is with and without the puck.
The speed stuff I would use in the context LT has. Flags.
Last year – TF looks slow to the play, is he? Yes, and it is slower than his average. He had an injury that could affect his foot speed. Monitor for regression or new normal.
Matching eye test to a stat. And again, small sample sizes.
Agreed that centres usually skate the most but don’t need to burn to get to a wall battle. Like Nuge and Dicky, they need edges and smarts positionally.
97 is a centre in name only. He isn’t actually that great at the position, he’s just so talented and game breaking you put him in the spot with the most possible touches and runway.