It looks like Mike Babcock has about half of the roster in the correct slots in the batting order. The McDavid line, the Nuge line, Jason Dickinson up front; the Bouchard pairing, Ryan Shea on defense; plus the goaltending seems to work well most nights. Please read this.
Ryan Shea’s pairing with Connor Murphy (36 percent five-on-five goal share in 231 minutes), Jake Walman’s role (3-11 five-on-five goals in 132 minutes) are problematic. The third- and fourth-line wingers are struggling and no one is emerging. Owen Michaels, a fine talent, is regressing as an NHL pro in his first season.
Babcock is building the team’s middle bits at this time, and now we should see some shuffling.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
On the road: NYR, NJD (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-1
At home to: ANA, VAN, NYR, PHI (Expected 3-1-0) 0-1-0
On the road to: TOR, PHI, FLA, TBAY, CAR, STL (2-3-1)
At home to: VEG, SEA (1-0-1)
On the road to: SEA (1-0-0)
Expected Record: 8-5-2, 18 points in 15 games (actual 1-1-1)
Actual Record: 11-3-3, 25 points in 17 games
You’d like to see the Oilers go 3-0 her and land 14-3-3 after 20 (31 points). It would absolutely isolate the team from most of the division. It’s possible. The combined record of the Canucks, Rangers and Flyers is 16-31-6.
UNDERPERFORMERS
Babcock’s two bottom lines are not doing well. The Jason Dickinson line features Alex Formenton, who has yet to truly rejoin the NHL after three seasons in Switzerland. I don’t know if he is going to make it. Formenton-Dickinson-Joseph are 1-0 goals at five-on-five in 38 minutes, but own a 32 percent expected goal share. The expected GA-60 is 1.62, so maybe they turn north. Small sample, but the underlying numbers are a concern.
The Owen Michaels line has played 185 minutes at five-on-five, and is 5-11 goals (31 percent) with a 29 percent expected share. The expected GA-60 for his line is 2.93-60. So that tells use he’s been a little unlucky (actual GA-60 is 3.57). I suspect he’ll be sent to the Bakersfield Condors in the next few weeks. Who will replace him at No. 4C? It could be Josh Samanski, who scored last night.
For fun, here are the expected GA-60 numbers for Edmonton’s bottom-six forwards
- Max Jones 2.04 Jason Dickinson 2.16 Filip Hallander 2.38 Trent Frederic 2.80 Alex Formenton 2.83 Mathieu Joseph 2.83 Owen Michaels 2.93 Ike Howard 3.49
If Max Jones is the better player in any category, it might be time to get your ass in gear. Give Dickinson credit, the suppression is there. Need to get him some better linemates. Soon.
CONDORS
I’m not certain why the Oilers slow-played Samuel Jonsson at the beginning of the year. He’s the best goalie prospect in the system, having delivered two quality seasons in a row. He was strong last night in a win on the coast and I do believe he should stay in Bakersfield as long as he is performing at such a high level.
Damien Carfagna was surely the next recall, but he’s missed the past two games. Tomas Cibulka is the best player down there on defense by the numbers, he’s 6-3 goals at even strength and has posted crooked offensive numbers on both special teams. Josh Brown is having a good year, might be a recall option if something happens on the right side. John Gormley is an ECHL recall who had an immediate impact.
Aku Raty has been money on a team badly in need of offense this season. He doesn’t seem like anything special in an NHL way, so I’m not sure he would be on the recall list. Quinn Hutson has delivered offense, but most on the power play and he won’t get that chance in Edmonton. Josh Samanski scored a goal and looked good last night, we’ll see if he can build on it.
If we are identifying a need it would be another top 9 forward who can play centre. The current lineup gets real janky whenever Nuge or Dickinson goes down.
The defensive structure was good in the the third.
Levi made some stops at the right times.
After tonight, McDavid is on pace for 219 points.
Yay, win. But, anyone concerned aboout the big dogs logging more ice time than previous years?
If oilers can build a big cushion pts wise, maybe they can play less down the road. I don’t believe the Oil win tonight if the twins play less. There just wasn’t enough from the rest of the lineup. But I bet Connor has something to say about it. Only thing that lets them play less is if the 3rd and 4th lines start scoring a bit more and having more time in the o zone.
RNH going out early in the second period was to blame for the increased minutes. They need another top 3 forward at the TDL.
Levi VG when needed
97 with 3 more Pts
More mcpoints! yay!
Murphy and Shea each turn it over there with full possession. Mcdavid also earlier.
And 97 no stick on stick on Boeser
I’d like to see Emberson instead of Murphy late. Both are tough buggers but that pair really struggles 6v5 getting to pucks.
Too many wasted clear attempts. Levi sharp. 1 goal game.
Levi bailin out the PK a bit that time.
Stauffer just dropped Savoie coming back to PK late Novmeber, early December.
Sorely missed. That’s great news. Pk needs to remove Mcdavid (although that shorty last game was nice). Try to spread minutes.
Mcpoints are awesome!
Seriously? Who doesn’t like Mcpoints?
Man, often when Conner tries that pass, I think “it will never get through” … but it does. A thing of beauty
What a dish by 97 and the finish
Draisaitl!!!
Bottom 6 goal!
Emberson Muckluk been good tonight.
Wallyworld will remain out
What the Dickens!
Dickinson gets a timely goal.
If 93 cant come back they have to spread it out:
Podz Dria Joseph
Kapanen Mcd Hyman
Ineffective fillers
Ineffectice fillers
Jeezuz they’re getting thin upfront
They’ve got maybe 5 forwards going tonight since 93 been out
Getting hard to watch…oilers are not winning any board battles. Especially in their own end. We are not seeing a third place team against the last place team…oilers not paying the price tonight. It was becoming their identity but it seems at home they are a bit soft and not bringing it like they do away from home…
Based on this effort so far Im thinking Jarry and Dach are not the only ones who are sick currently.
The usual Nov plague
It’s a long seaon – but I hope that’s the reason for the pretty meh performance so far.
Oilers getting pumped whenever mcdrainot on ice.
Does anyone know if a team has ever had a strategy to try to get coincidental calls to go 4 on 4? Seems like anytime we go to 4 on 4, it should be advantage Oilers…
The Gretzky era Oilers did that very thing. The league actually changed the rule on coincidental minors they were so good at it. You did not want to go 4 on 4 against Gretzky, Kurri, Coffey, and company.
Cool – that era was before my time – fascinating to know, thanks!
I’d be ok with Murphy giving Gallagher an attitude adjustment coming out of the box
Geez hope Nuge is okay. He is the straw that stirs the second line.
Ffs Drai. That’s two bad penalties in two games…these are killing our pp’s
I don’t think it was even a penalty. He got 2 minutes for being big.
Even Louie halfway questioned it so…
Petersen folded like a cheap tent which sold it
BS call.
Kapanen taking Nuge’s spot on the PP atm
In this game Oilers don’t have to dump and chase every time. We learn what they have for offense in the depth lines.
So far, not much created at all.
Nuge likely out now. They could use some more skill marbled through line up.
Yup. One line team again. Hyman pretty much ineffective all game so far. Was hoping he’d have high adrenaline coming off injury.
Important PP here…
93 out
Have to split up the Ferarris now
Nuge took a puck in the face and right off the ice to the room. Hopefully not too bad.
He hasn’t kissed a girl, but he’s kissed a puck or two.
Levi’s ability to actually catch the puck, rather than just block it somewhere, is always appreciated.
Agreed
The 2nd and 3rd chances are way down
Oilers continuing to shoot own self in foot handing away second period breakaways. Levi is sharp and it’s a good thing…
This “hope nothing bad happens when the bottom 6 is on” thing is wearing thin. Its going to lose them a game against a cellar dweller.
This all day long…kinda sad. At the beginning of the season they were holding their own, but the bottom six is carrying a very leaky bucket for a long stretch now…
Please Let the Oilers escape their crappy second periods…
Vancouver gets a lucky bounce after being dominated all period.
It looked like a nice tip on top of a good screen. Not much chance for Levi but I wouldn’t say it was a lucky bounce.
I wouldn’t say lucky bounce either. I would say lack of attention to detail and letting foot off the gas at the end of the period.
8 seconds, for crying out loud
Levi has excellent balance
Much better than Skinner who would end up on his belly often when sliding laterally
Louie is genuinely a nice guy off the ice. He was certainly not that ON the ice with the Oil in his heyday. Man could throw a serious punch.
I was talking recently with a Habs fan.
Frederick came up and he said what an impressive power forward Frederic used to be.
I thought he was very good as a Bruin.
Where did that player go? He’s late to most parties these days
He got his bag. Same with Walman.
My thoughts as well. Frederic contract was so unnecessary
I get the thought of locking up a 2nd pairing D though.
We give these GMs alot of flack when their bets don’t work out – Sometimes the player just doesn’t put in the work expected of them
Too bad he still wasn’t…..
Summarizing!
Wakely scored his 2nd of the season and added an assist.
Lewandowski and Fischer each had an apple.
Sharp, Lafreniere, Berzkalns (despite game-high 5 SOG), and Berry did not garner soup.
Cameron allowed five goals on 41 shots (87.8%) in a loss.
Mattias Eksaitle
Viking from Connor!!
Might be time to bring up Samanski and send Micheal’s down. 4 th line hasn’t been working for awhile. Formenton and Jones could go as well but not sure who replaces them???
I like Hallander better than either of them.
Yea I agree with that.
Wow. Walman scratched again. He’s definitely on the bubble with Babcock.
Good, finally some accountability regardless of contract.
Darnell would not have been an every game player this year
To paraphrase Red in the Shawshank Redemption, “This Edmonton football franchise crawled through a river of shit and came out clean on the other side.”
Cody Fajardo reminds me of Tom Wilkinson. Might not be as pudgy but yeah Tom Wilkinson.
I’m sure Calgary fans are thrilled with Edmonton being in their Grey Cup. lol
I swear that last pass attempt by BC glanced slightly off the horizontal upright and made it uncatchable by the receiver. Which, for the last Edmonton defensive play in Commonwealth with the uprights in play, is pretty cool.
The Double EE are headed back to the Grey Cup and sending 40k fans home happy!
An absolutely dominant D leads the way with double threat Cody Fajardo being a field general when he had to be.
Classic Grey Cup matchup with so many storylines. Ex Esks Maas and Maciocia in Montreal. MOP Alexander vs big game Fajardo. #1 offense vs the #1 defence. And of course, the classic Grey Cup rivalry. Edmonton vs Montreal.
Congratulations to the Thompson family. Kings of the North!