This is me with Mrs. Lowetide at the 1988 CKCK Christmas party. Mrs. Lowetide passed away, CKCK shut it doors, surely the tree is no longer around and I’m thankful the moustache is a distant bell. I can look at these photos now without crying, at least not too much. I see two people who loved each other, two young people building their lives together. Piece by piece, some nice investments and several wobbly kitchen sets, all on the way to children and 40 years together. It was beautiful. I wouldn’t change a thing. Today I’d like to talk about building as it pertains to the Edmonton Oilers and Stan Bowman.
The Athletic article is on Evan Bouchard, Stuart Skinner and the next value contract. It is here.
ALWAYS WORRY ABOUT THE GUY WHO WANTS TO PLAY HERO
Each day that passes without Stan Bowman making a trade gives me hope. The only trades likely available to him now are the type of deals Peter Chiarelli pulled for Brandon Manning and Alexander Petrovic around New Year’s 2019 (December 2018).
On the other hand, the pressure on Bowman (and hockey ops) must be enormous. Daryl Katz is not known to be patient, proof can be offered just by looking at the number of general managers (seven since Kevin Lowe) and head coaches (10 since MacT) who have run the joint since he took over in June 2008. That’s 17 changes at the top in 16 years. I’d say Bowman is smart enough to know which way the wind blows, so that means he will understand the pressure cooker.
Now, the Oilers are 2-4-1 and in my opinion they are figuring things out. Kris Knoblauch has to settle down a little, the movement of players from line to line is not helpful when trying to establish chem. That second line of Leon Draisaitl with Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson seems to be taking hold, but Knoblauch is worried about the third line (who wouldn’t be? Jesus) so there’s a patchwork quilt headed to Adam Henrique’s trio.
I’m not at all sure why Darnell Nurse played RH side, but it’s a good reminder that rookie coaches often try unusual things. Sometimes, as happened for Jay Woodcroft, the experiments work. Other times, as we saw with Dallas Eakins, they do not. I’m cheering for Knoblauch, and wish Bowman could send him help, but I don’t think ‘charitable work for the team that deploys Connor McDavid’ is on the agenda for the other NHL general managers. They’re willing to send a rowboat over if Bowman sends back a battleship. Maybe he can find a trireme.
First I want to apologize for the lateness of today’s entry. I slept from 10pm to 8:15am today, the longest sleep I can recall in my 25 years in this house. So, late start, but I did wake up with this story idea so that’s a blessing. I promise to be on time for the Lowdown today, noon on Sports 1440. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will join us, we’ll talk lines and pairings, plus Declanations will see Declan Krueger talk NCAA football.
I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
Petition for LT stache comeback for Movember. Good cause, good muzzy, I’d donate.
LT…. what are the odds of that mustache making a comeback? What a duster!
We’re being told we’re adding a 2RHD by Bob at deadline non-stop. Bowman has obvious ties to Seth Jones. They mentioned having around 9M in cap space if Kane goes LTIR.
I can see a world where they get Jones but it would have to be retained. Jones doesn’t fit the Chicago window long-term, nor is he worth that dollar.
It could be conceivable that the price of Jones isn’t very high right now due to cap.
No, I have no clue how that would work out cap-wise (with Bouch extension), just saying there’s tea leaves here and crumbs to follow. Maybe they bridge Bouch and bite the 12M bullet down the line.
Hey LT. I don’t know how you managed it through the interwebs, but covid has entered my house as well, and since I can’t blame Skinner or Nurse, I’m blaming you!. Me, my lovely partner, and our youngest all have it. Luckily vaccinated, so not so severe, but I blame you. (kidding)…I’m over the worst of it, just waiting this effer out. 🙂
Glad that the trigger hasn’t been pulled on a panic trade…hopefully they get their stuff together enough to delay a knee jerk move…that would undermine everything they’re trying to accomplish.
McDavid straight up says Crosby should be captain for the Four Nations.
I have to agree.
Respect is a thing and yes Crosby is definitely still at the level of captaincy.
Glad you got some good rest LT, esp after being sick.
We’ve been talking about finding a good partner for Doc.
But maybe he wanted Doc to see what his partner sees. Perhaps the move was to give him a fresh perspective. It may not be intended as a solution rather a building block. It’s a thought.
Oilers have the 5th lowest PDO. Largely driven by shooting percentage (4.81%).
It’s coming!
With the highest xGF%, SCF% , and HDCF%. Colorado solid 2.
Mostly goalie.
I actually don’t think the Oilers issues are mostly goalie or at least their own goalie. Again, their PDO is low because of shooting percentage. I think they have faced hot goalies/shooters are ice cold plus special teams have been abysmal.
By mostly goalie I meant both ways. Theirs have been better than ours.
The tandem let in their first 5 PK shots. Goalie has to be your best PKer.
1 positive game by Stu against Carolina doesn’t excuse the poor other games by both tenders.
Small small sample sizes.
Per DNB:
Oilers lines and pairings at practice:
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Skinner-Henrique-Brown
Janmark-Ryan-Perry
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Stecher
Kulak-Emberson
Dermott
Skinner
Pickard
I do like the Podkolzin push he’s been doing a good job forechecking. It’s time to see if he can find his hands with Leon spoonfeeding him.
Feel better. BTW, I took Aerius for a couple months after having Covid and it really helped. See here: Study shows over-the-counter antihistamines can help with long COVID
Lovely start to an excellent blog post today (again).
Fantastic picture of two beautiful people.
We are so lucky to have you sir.
Pure Gold
If Bowman is as awful as some suggest, David Savard will be an Oiler by American Thanksgiving.
Maybe they could offer Kemp and a pick for a retained Ceci, he might fit alongside Nurse for a bit.
Question: why is Seth Jones the hockey player almost universally derided?
Is it just because he plays on a bad team?
His relative on ice numbers are quite good and he puts up points.
Yet it seems like everyone thinks his contract is a terrible overpay, and the Jones trade is regarded as one of the major blemishes on Bowman’s trade record.
Just wondering what I’m missing.
I think it’s the contract relative to the player. Similar to Nurse. Decent player but a poor contract.
I.e., Jones is paid like a top 10 dman in the league. Is he a top 10 dman?
The contract dollars do not match the player, no?
With Holland taking on the Keith contract allowed Bowman the opportunity and funds to trade and sign his cornerstone D-man in Seth Jones. The signing of Jones immediately raised Nurses long term contract by 1.5> 2 million. I do believe Nurse would of been signed in the 7’s if not for Seth Jones spiking the market.
I don’t know.
He plays tons of minutes.
He puts up points.
His on ice impacts relative to team are really strong (similar to guys like Fox, Makar, Hughes, Karlsson, Lindholm, Josi etc.).
I don’t watch enough, so that’s kind of my question. Why is he not a top Dman?
Seth Jones is a pretty good hockey player. If Bowman could actually trade Nurse for him it would be a major win. Although I’m not sure who replaces Nurse on the left side now that Broberg is gone.
This team suddenly looks very thin on defense.
Time to throw some slightly lower numbers in front of Mr. Bouchard’s agent and see if he bites (unlikely but worth the attempt). Slow starts shouldn’t be wasted.
There are many who are upset at the Oilers for doing just that, with Broberg and Holloway.
I think being worried about every worst case scenario is a prerequisite for being an Oilers fan.
The situations have nothing in common.
They both involve trying to ink an RFA to a contract that fits the teams budget, no?
That’s the job. Do the best for the team that you are able to. Paying players at the peak salary range (Holland loved this) usually doesn’t work out, and although a little richer (not that they would really notice), I would say at least 75% of the time it’s a burden on the player’s enjoyment of the game. Just ask Darnell if life would be better making ~2.5M less
Its a balance i think. Not sure who said this, but a good negotiation has both sides walking away happy. (Or was it angry?)
Yes a balance, but the GM needs to be tipping the scales back toward the team. In many cases that hasn’t happened for the Oilers, and it matters a lot
You’re saying he’d be happier than making 20 million less on the lifetime of the contract.
Now that’s the bold talk I’ve been looking for here.
The Oilers ARE indeed 2-4-1 and still figuring things out it they also played well enough in the last two games to get 4 points much of the time. They only got 1, thats l a fact and moral victories don’t mean squat but, for me, the arrows are up and the team play is coming together.
I’d prefer if the head coach would calm things down by “sticking with things” for a period of time. I think the constant blender is not to conducive the helping this team settle in at this point.
Lots of good last game. The third line was ass but lots of good from the other 3, I’m not sure a big re-shuffle was/is required.
Both this year and last year I have been surprised that 18, 93 and 97 do not shoot more, and instead favour attempts to stuff the puck in or have traffic deflect it in. Last year I attributed the shift to a wrist injury to 97 (ie bank the puck off of Hyman’s stick instead of picking the corner), but have no answer now. They repeatedly get the puck close to the net but not past the goal line.
I don’t think the Oilers are a strong finishing team. They have elite talent at the top, some very good players, but a lot of those good players aren’t great finishers, or natural scorers. Given how much the create and have the puck, having Connor Leon and Bouch and others, they should be dominant against any defensive tactic. But we see that while they can run the score up in some games, in others they really struggle to score 5v5 or create enough truly solid chances
I see it as a mix of the players and how they have been coached to play. I was very surprised when after Coffey took over Desharnais saying the D were supposed to make plays, not glass and out. This means that the previous coaches were having them do that, the opposite to what a Connor team should be doing
Woody said he was his own coach, but he isn’t much different than McLellan, unsurprisingly. The button down defensive style I think has been passed by, because of reffing changes from the league, and that the young players are different now than 10-15 years ago. You have to be good defensively, but there are ways that can be too conservative
I think Tippet was done mentally, and the challenge of reigning in the wild young horses in a hotbed market with not enough help from the GM was more than he wanted to be doing, it sure looked like it watching him in the last part, and he retired after they let him go
To me they seem to play to the corners too much, without enough emphasis on finding players in soft areas. As well as players not supporting the play enough in timing when they get to those areas, which is what good scorers can do
I can see the puck carrier looking for someone and there isn’t anything there. I think they need to work on attacking more quickly out of the corners to between the circles, not playing the puck around the boards as long hoping for a breakdown. I think they need to have more tactics around doing this, structures to break into the slot with a quick play and support there waiting. Or weak side plays to a D coming down
There are times they do this, but not enough. I mentioned before that they also need to be better at creating consistent traffic and making purposeful plays for deflections and rebounds if a team is clogging the slot and the goalie is playing well – that is how you beat it. Like what Joe Pav was sooo good at doing
Trying to stuff it in and getting off shots into the goalie because of not being in a good enough position to get the puck up (almost all goalies will be taking the the ice and bottom net away when under pressure in tight) can work at times, but it is mostly relying on luck. This team should be like an onslaught to defend against the top 2 lines at least
I think JJ sees this, and went and got himself some better 5v5 scorers that play more that way. KK wants them to be breaking out quickly, moving the puck cross ice and back while attacking to create lanes and to get some chances in before a team sets up. They aren’t there yet, and I hope the coaches are working on changing some things up offensively
That’s a fine looking couple in that photo.
Sleep is good. There is no substitute.
I’m glad you are sleeping in. It may be a bit of an inconvenience to you, but my experience in my 50s has been I can’t sleep much past 6 anymore. I’d love to be able to sleep to 7:30 or 8 on my off days, but I can’t, which means I’m in bed by 9:30 even on my days off.
As you have said, youth is wasted on the young. I understand that better now.
Make your bedtime 11:00 pm instead of 9:30.
I do on occasion (I like being a night owl morning than an early bird) and my body still wakes me up at 6. Even while I was off in the summer it was a regular struggle to stay asleep. Mostly I just shrug and recognize that as I have aged things have changed that I don’t appreciate, but need to make accommodation for (ear hair, decreased metabolism, intolerance of people on or near my lawn, etc).
LT, this may be the least important part of the opening paragraph, but I think that’s a fine mustache.
It makes me happy when you speak of those years fondly.
Before I get further than the first part of the article I have to say:
Goodness, you look amazing with a mustache! I know you say you’re glad it’s gone, but my word. Skinner doffs his cap to you.
As for the rest of the article, I’m with you on not rolling the players around too much for the 5×5 lines. Let’s have a bit of consistency there and let the players find their rhythm. For the new guys repeated reps with the same guys so they can learn habits is key at this stage.
That said, when you’re playing jazz there are no wrong notes, it’s the note you play afterwards that makes it right or wrong (thanks Mr Davis). Maybe this last tweak is the one that makes things soar.
Jazz is just musical wanking. (thanks The Commitments)
Prospectence!
Another day, another OHL tandem–this time it’s the Colts of Barrie.
Wakely has goals in three of his four games, while Akey has made like Peter Frampton and come alive with 1+2 his past three GP.
Puck drops at 5 p.m. Buffalo Narrows time.
I’m sure there’s a Hall for Larson trade out there somewhere if Stan makes enough calls. jk
Haha, to be fair Adam Larsson was a better player than Ryan O’Marra, Robert Nilsson and Alex Plante combined. (Shhh. I’m avoiding mentioning Craig Millar and Barrie Mooore, for LT’s sake. Don’t remind him.)
This team with prime Adam Larsson would be pretty set tbh. All Hall trade value chat aside he really added something to the back end.
At this point in the season, the Oilers have very little cap space to make a trade. Just over a million dollars and they’d need to fit in over 90% of the AAV of an acquired contract.
Unless/until injuries hit, this cap space grows as the amount of season left decreases (as, if not operating in LTIR, a team only has to fit it the AAV that’s left on the contract for the season).
Yes, technically, they can go over the cap by apx $5.1MM using Kane’s LTIR reserves, however, that is a dangerous game unless the org knows with certainty he won’t play this regular season – I don’t think they know that.
Also, let’s not forget, if operating in LTIR, it doesn’t matter how much of th season is left, the full acquired AAV needs to be fit in – if they operate in LTIR and max it, get used to “money in / money out” if discussing future acquisitions.
Never underestimate the Oilers ability to shoot themselves in the foot. Lots of Jack Johnson defensemen out there with low cap hit and little ability to improve the situation.
The question now is ‘does Bowman value this player?’ and we do not know the answer.
Yep. Danger close.
Personally, I think Bowman spends most days trying to figure out how he can trade Nurse for Seth Jones.
Haha. Brilliant!!
Your Bowman derangement syndrome is getting old. seek help!
If Oilers fans aren’t at least a little worried about Bowman’s future transactions, they should read up on his past. Some brilliant, some wobble. I don’t think the next trade will be an easy one, suspect Bowman will have to thread a needle.
Every time I change schools (teacher) I reinvent myself for the better at least a little bit. We can hope the same of Bowman, no?
As a fellow teacher, we can adjust for our situation to a certain extent, but we have strengths which make us good at what we do. These strengths also lead us to develop habits which make their way into the daily practice we bring into a classroom. So, while I am in many ways different in my practice from 2 schools ago, I am also the same in my tendencies. Or, as I tell my students, wherever I go, there I am.
Bowman can learn from past mistakes too, but if he doesn’t recognize that he does his work a certain way, then there is no hope he won’t fall into the same habits. I can hope not, but frankly we just haven’t seen anything from him (at all) that would lead us to think differently one way or the other.
Wherever you go, There you are. Interesting book. Kinda fluffy for my liking but a good instructional.
I agree but my comment was not referring to Bowman’s trading prowess.
Agreed LT, hope for the best expect the worst – life as an Oilers fan. I have faith that Jackson brings some sanity and sober 2nd thought to keep a “Jack Johnson” type trade from happening.
In the meantime, Coach K should set some lines, ideally Leon’s line, and let chemistry set in so we see an uptick in 5v5 GF.
Valid point but, at the same time, this is Jackson/Bowman not Chiarelli making the decisions – a new chapter for the Oilers – it may be the same as the past or maybe instead of Jack Johnson/Brandom Manning, its Timothy Lilegren or similar and it actually works out?
Bro I have seen Oilers GMs make trades. An Oilers GM winning a trade is about as rare as civil discourse on the internet or a Unicorn with three horns.
This comment wins the day
Ekholm acquistion.
Samorukov for Kostin
Kostin’s rights (and overpay deman) and Yamo’s contract dumped on Yzerman
Bear for Foegele
Kulak for a 2nd (if you ignore who the Habs picked….)
The discourse on Hutson is already at mass capacity. This blog would be in shambles, 50 50 on each side Godot leading one side LT leading the other.
I am open for Lieutenant ideas.
You never seen a Tricorn before?
The only meaningful trade would be money out money in and with all the NMC this leaves Bowman hog-tied. Bowman was set with Crawford yet he always had a fine back-up I do think he’s going to up-grade on Pickard if he doesn’t impress in his next couple of starts.