Do you remember the Chris Pronger shifts when he played with the Edmonton Oilers? You could hit the can, saunter over to the beer fridge, drive to the store for milk or mow the grass because you knew nothing bad at all would happen. I hesitate to call it the best single season by an Edmonton Oilers defenseman, because Paul Coffey, but in all honesty no single defender gave Oilers fans the feeling of calm that Pronger provided in 2005-06.
The Oilers current defense has a damn good top pairing in Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard. Despite some chaos this season, it’s reasonable to expect handsome outscoring by the tandem (while playing with the Connor McDavid Trio) at five-on-five this season.
The Athletic article today is about Matthew Savoie’s first 16 games with the Bakersfield Condors and the impressive outscoring results. The article is here.
Oilers blue
In his last 10 games, dating back to October 28, Darnell Nurse owns impressive (3-5-8) boxcars. He is averaging 21 minutes per game, 3.1 shots per game and the Oilers are at a 75 percent goal share (6-2 goals) five-on-five during the run. He has been the best version of himself during this period, and it’s been so good some people are noticing.
That’s big news in a city whose fans blame the player for his current contract and somehow manage to look past the dual bridge contracts (one by Peter Chiarelli and one by Ken Holland) that paved the way for the long-term deal Nurse is now playing through. That’s a helluva trick, ignoring facts to fit a bias. I do it too, but in this case it’s especially perplexing because Nurse bet on himself and won. Edmonton is a strong entrepreneurial city, I’ve always thought at least some folks would be impressed by his belief that (lack) injuries and (quality) performance would eventually win a long-term deal.
Back to this season and specifically the last 10 games. Nurse and Brett Kulak have played 65 minutes together in those games, and are 3-0 goals with a 64 percent expected goal share (all numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick). Away from Kulak in those games, Nurse is 3-2 goals with a 49 percent goal share.
The rumour currently has Stan Bowman searching for a LH blue who can play RH side. I think that’s a fine idea, because that LH blue may end up playing his strong side with Ty Emberson on the third pairing. That may be part of the reason why Bowman is searching for a specific handedness.
Bottom line: Experts say waiting for 200 minutes is wise, but it looks like Nurse-Kulak are money as a second pair. They are at 87:27 five-on-five minutes for the entire year, 3-1 goals and 66 percent expected goals. I don’t see any good reason to keep them apart at any time.
At noon today, the Lowdown hits the airwaves with plenty of Oilers talk. Guests include Rachel Doerrie from ESPN and Betalytics, Jason Gregor from the JG Show and Declan Krueger. I’ll ask Rachel about Nurse-Kulak, who the ideal LH who can play RH might be, and I wonder if the Oilers blew up the entire ‘need to be a playoff team by US Thanksgiving’ wisdom with the performance last season. I’ll ask Jason about Stuart Skinner’s Saturday performance, Nurse-Kulak and what the Oilers should be shopping for between now and the deadline. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
New for The Athletic: Which Edmonton Oilers prospects are spiking in AHL Bakersfield?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5944197/2024/11/25/oilers-prospects-savoie-ahl/
Drake has played well when called up this year – he is a very good depth player.
Philp and Savoie playing well – RJ needs the full season in the AHL.
Right now I would send Dermott down to play with the Condors.If Hyman does not come back for the game on Friday, I would keep Drake for a few games. If he does send Drake back to the AHL.Assuming no more injuries to the D, after the VGK game (Dec 3rd) I would recall Philp and let Ryan have a rest.This team will need Philp near the end of the year and playoffs(?) so get him some NHL time now.
@MDeFranks
Philip Broberg is on the ice for Blues morning skate.
Very curious to see if the Blues get a new coach bump from Montgomery.
Per Gregor:
Hurry back Zach, they miss you.
I don’t see this as true. Nurse was paid more than he even asked for by over 1M, at least. His ask was out there in the media after the contract, maybe before.
Nurse even after the bridge deals should have been in under 8M, because IIRC that was his initial ask, the deal would go down from there. The reason Holland gave him 9.25M was he enabled Bowman to give Jones 9.5M by taking Keith at full pop, with no sweetener either.
Nurse wanted to sign before that deal went down. Holland should have signed Nurse and then acquired Keith. It was a very poor, team damaging, piece of work. There is being fair to a player, and there is taking that so far that you are not doing your job well or properly. Everyone, including Nurse, would be better off if he was paid where he should be at, but it’s a done deal, and it doesn’t matter, until that NMC relaxes, and at that point it may cost him his tenure with the team.
Everything said here is a known fact, not just my opinion.
I know some retention would be required, but I truly think Ivan Provorov is the best bet for a versatile defender to acquire at the deadline.
His skating is a plus, he is a strong two way defenseman, and he’s the right age to extend if his audition goes well. Would be a fine 1-2 LHD tandem with Nurse after Ekholm’s deal expires.
His boxcars aren’t eye popping, which helps contract negotiations. But his fancies, especially rels, on poor teams are generally solid across the board. And multiple coaches across multiple teams have all trusted him to take on plenty of hefty minutes. Perhaps a little less of a load, and playing with better players in general, would see him pop.
He makes $4.73M this season and becomes UFA next season. So yeah, lots of retention for sure. Which drives acquisition cost up. They want a lot for David Jiricek . I can’t imagine what they would want for Ivan Provorov?
Might be tricky as Columbus already has all 3 retention slots filled.
Likely would need to get a third team involved.
Oilers Next 20 Games
Oilers are playing better – but they are all over the place so far this season (losing to Chi and Columbus was brutal).
Last year Van won the Pacific with 109 pts. To get on pace for 109 the Oilers will need to get 32 points out of the next 20 games. Not easy but doable – go Oilers!
Moneypuck has an excellent model for predicting points.
They have the Pacific finishing up this way:
VGK 106.2
LAK 100.5
EDM 100.5
VCR 98.7
CGY 94.3
SEA 86.6
ANA 78.6
SJS 64.4
Whether or not the Kings, Oilers, Canucks of Flames finish top 3 or wildcard might well hinge on their record against one another.
Top 4 in the Central is pretty much already determined thanks to very strong starts by the Stars, Jets and Wild with the Avalanche now pushing hard as their numerous injured players return to the lineup.
DAL 107.4
WPG 105
MIN 101.3
COL 99.9
https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm
I actually quite like the juggling of pairs the staff is doing currently.
I fully agree Nurse-Kulak is the (2nd) duo for any high leverage assignments, but I like that they’re both still playing lots on their strong sides and helping to support their weaker/younger RD partners.
I would personally like the staff to continue doing just what they’re doing as I think it benefits all involved in different ways.
At the same time, it would go a long way to have Nurse & Kulak focusing on being the best second pairing they can possibly be, without the need to support their weaker/younger RD partners. The team would certainly benefit from the addition of a veteran LHD with the ability to solidify the third pair. Or another guy to partner with Nurse. Because Kulak is the perfect partner either way.
Simply put they’re still in search of that missing link on D.
How many games does Emberson need to not become a free agent?
He has to play 50 games this season to lose his UFA group 6 status. Whether he becomes RFA or UFA maybe you could tell me. Is this a test?
No disagreement about Pronger.
He was +2 in his one season with the Oilers though. Bouchard and Ekholm are +45 and +49 in the Oilers last 82 games.
Crazy.
Ty Conklin 0.880 sv%
Mike Morrison 0.884%
Jussi Markkanen 0.880%
Call it mostly goalie.
@FriedgeHNIC
In the aftermath of their 6-2 loss in Edmonton on Saturday, the Rangers have made it very clear they are interested in making moves and shaking up their roster.
Among the names indicated are Chris Kreider and Jacob Trouba, although other options will be considered.
Trouba has been on the market all season.
Im sure they are very interested in moving Trouba. Now is anyone interested in Trouba no. Trouba interested in being traded. Absolutely not.
Trouba is just the kind of jerk Edmonton. Not going to happen though.
Trouba has a 15 team no trade clause.
It’s unlikely any contending team could absorb his $8 million cap hit.
If the Oilers are looking for a 3rd pairing LD, Lauzon is my choice, fairly cheap & 1 more season, hits everything in sight twice.
A Lauzon/Emberson 3rd pairing would provide the push back that’s going to be sorely needed against the likes of the Knights.
Lauzon is brutal. Has issues in coverage tracking his man, tends to stare at the puck and get “caught in photo” because he doesn’t recognize the danger until it’s too late.
Is offensive minded and likes to jump in the rush, but thinks he’s Bobby Orr.
Hard pass.
We’re talking 3rd pairing, I’ve seen Oilers 1st pairings do exactly what you’re describing.
He hits everything and blocks a ton of shots. I’m sure Coffey and Stuart can help him with his Bobby Orr syndrome if that’s a thing lol
We already have Josh Brown who does all of the good (and bad) you’re describing.
Now I know folks are just yapping, Brown has never come close to performing in the bigs to the degree Lauzon has.
Fair. I don’t disagree. I’ll add some context to aid the discussion.
Per PuckIQ against Gritensity (3rd pair):
Lauzon 23/24 GP 78
GF/60 2.5
GA/60 2.7
Brown 23/24 GP 51
GF/60 4.0
GA/60 3.8
Brown was weirdly higher event but overall his team was in the positive over a reasonable sample size. Moreso than Lauzon on Nashville, who were a much better team. I don’t use rel’s because Lauzon looks like garbage because of Josi. Now that would be a heckuva trade.
20/21 is the only year with a reasonable sample Lauzon did well against the dregs. With Chara Bergeron Bruins.
He’s done it for longer, but he’s been just as mediocre.
My point is, at Lauzon’s cap hit, and whatever asset cost to acquire him, I think the difference is less than negligible compared to Brown (which is more damning on Lauzon than an endorsement of Brown).
Oilers are 2nd last in hits given, adding a missing spice to the group may be wise.
IMO Lauzon would certainly be an upgrade on Stecher, Dermott or Brown. But he makes $2M and becomes UFA after next season. Might be able to fit him in, though they might want to find someone better.
He played 18:36 a night on a playoff team last season, he makes $2M. Sure finding someone better would be fantastic yet the Oilers don’t have 6M free in cap space and it wouldn’t be wise to sell off the few picks or prospects to get a team to retain on these “better players”
If the Oilers don’t have some meat in the line up and end up running into Vegas in the playoffs they’re cooked. I hate Vegas yet the outside perimeter fancy game isn’t going to get it done against them.
The Oilers have given 282 hits (2nd last) they’ve taken 485 (8th most) % of hits given is 38.26 which is second last to only Utah as per money puck.
Physicality is still a big factor in the game, with a healthy Kane coming back and a addition like Lauzon the Oilers would completely flip the scrip and be a fast, skilled, and physical team instead of a fast and skilled team that gets pushed around.
They get hit more because they have the puck more.
Same with the Taylor Hall giveaway effect.
I haven’t seen them get bullied in a game.
I’ve seen Lauzon get folded by Podkolzin though.
Gee I didn’t realize the Preds made the playoffs last season?
And Lauzon is a $2 million dollar 3rd pairing d-man. No thank you. Been watching him in Nashville for 3 seasons since Poile overpaid for him. Even the Pred’s analytics guys don’t defend him.
So looking at the standings today. I think we can circle Detroit, Ottawa, Montreal, Columbus, Philadelphia, Pittsburg, Utah, St. Louis, Nashville, Chicago, Anaheim, and San Jose as possible dance partners in a trade for defensive help.
I looked at these teams, starting with Nashville, as we are aware of LT’s desire for Carrier. Checking down to defenseman who can play both sides, who else could be of interest? I suspect Schenn is a non-starter, and salary will be an issue, so can we say less than $4M? I also checked down on younger players as I doubt teams would be willing to trade youth, and we simply don’t have the assets. I was also reluctant to look at players with term (ie: this year and next).
In my brief research and I have no idea if these player can play both sides (RD) with the exception of Grzelcyk…
Matt Grzelcyk (https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/matt-grzelcyk/2723)
Brian Dumoulin
Jake Christiansen
Ivan Provorov
Mario Ferraro
Michael Kesselring (not happening)
Ian Cole (https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/players/news/ian-cole/1313)
Of all these, Grzelcyk and Cole showed better. I’m sure others have better stats to compare on these players (and others of interest to the Oilers), please share.
Ivan Provorov from that list should be the #1 target. I believe he actually has been playing some on the right-side in Columbus. #2 should be Mario Ferraro who was partnered with Emberson in San Jose.
RE: Kesselring
If Mcdonaugh can go back to Tampa, anything’s possible.
His contract is too valuable to move but they have a plethora of RD signed for a while and might want to make room for Lamoreaux who has really come along.
Man screw Columbus for taking Fabbro, he looks so good in his new spot.
Oh my gosh how good would Maveric Lamoreau look beside Darnell Nurse.
Might see him next game when Utah HC comes to town.
Betting on yourself twice and winning is admirable.
Folding up the chair and riding into the sunset after winning the bet is the issue.
If this recent run continues, nobody will complain because he’s providing value commensurate to performance.
That’s all anyone asked for.
Clearly management didn’t handle things properly.
Two things that will work in Nurse’s favor if they come to pass. First, having Kulak as a partner who allows his flaws to be papered over will help him immensely. Second, if the cap goes up close to the $100M mark, then his salary stops looking as big as it does.
I still don’t know if you have room for two $9M+ defensemen on a team in that scenario (Bouchard is going to get paid $10M imo), but it does give a path to make it until 2027 when Nurse could be swapped out for another option.
Some large breaks without Oiler hockey this season
5 full days ( this one)
5 full days at Christmas ( good for them )
14 days in Feb ( Tournament)
This one is great for the injuries for sure.
Nurse and Kulak are playing great together. It is nice to see.
Be nice to see Bouchard get a little better on D and giveaways as well as picking it up on the pp. ( All of them ). I am not worried at all about his D partner.
Do like Emberson’s game overall on the 3rd pairing. Do not like any of the guys they have used with him or even Kulak when he was playing in that pairing. Stetcher and or either of the other 2 used are #7’s. As it is being reported by lots of the local media, the Oil will add a better D man by the end of day of the trade deadline ( at the latest).
The team overall just needs some consistency moving forward. Be nice to see them go on a winning streak before. Xmas, or at least a great stretch of games with a nice record like 9-2-1 or 8-3-1 (here is hoping).
Meant those other guys when they played with Kulak on the 3rd. Kulak has been great all year.
The Western Conference is shaping up to be a boring playoff race. There are several high-end teams, and myriad crappy teams. Edmonton sits in 9th, and only has to climb over one of Vancouver, Calgary, or LA to make the playoffs.
Oilers have a stretch of 10 games coming up against crappy teams, so expect us to be closer to the high-end by mid-January.
Kulak – Nurse is an unbelievable turn of events if it becomes a long term solution. The other inside of the coin is that we all know the defenseman we’re now looking for and it hurts too much to mention.
It’s interesting how things have turned out. All the talk was about Broberg after his grandiose playoff performance alongside Nurse on the second pair. But it was Kulak who turned down the opportunity to open the door for Broberg. This season suddenly he’s fine with playing the right-side with Nurse as it probably should have been. I doubt the offer sheet happens without Kulak’s opening the door for Broberg . In hindsight he may have signed in Edmonton and been playing with Emberson on the third pairing today.
Woulda, shoulda, coulda. LOL
We talked this off season a lot about Nurse and, for me, his play this season was maybe the biggest factor on how team ends up.
We know what we are going to get from the likes of Drai and McDavid (and Ek and Bouch through year’s end).
Given Nurse’s regression over the last few years, his play was up in the air and him locking down that 2nd pairing was a massive need for the team to succeed.
It was a struggle early as he worked his game up after missing all camp games but he is now locking it down and it’s huge.
We know this player can anchor a high end second pairing. For crying out looks he anchored a 1st pairing (with non first pairing partners) playing some of the toughest minutes in the league and kept his head above water. Yes, lots of McDavif help but there was succeed against elites with McDavid off.
Seems Nurse is healthy in the hip/core area and he’s back.
Welcome back Darnell!!!
Nurse’s play regressed the longer he played with Ceci. The problem went away.
I adore your hatred of the greatest game 7 scorer in Oiler history.
Its actually very interesting to see that, over the course of three years, there isn’t much movement in Nurse’s on-ice numbers with and without Ceci.
I think injury and health was a primary factor.
It should also be noted that all of Nurse’s on-ice numbers absolutely tanked with put with Broberg in the playoffs last season (except for the 4-2 goal share off the PDO heater – all other numbers were abysmal with Broberg, much better without).
Mayhem Monday.
“Hello me. Meet the real me.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkJ2fttcA54
🙂 🙂 🙂
I have no problems with how Nurse played the cards he was dealt. Overall, I expected stronger performances but also need to recognize injury plays a role. But from my end, I think signing for about 1 million less per year would have still been a personal success while also sending a message about team commitment and cap flexibilty. The core group really seem to like each other which is a good thing for team culture, but in a cap world – they need to realize it also means that keeping them together must not be an inefficient use of resources.
But of course, playing well is the best answer to the critics and Nurse is looking good these days; And, as OP mentioned – its great seeing him also looking happy
It was signed pre-covid-flat-cap. And the Jones contract reset defensive salary levels.
4 years of cap inflation was lost, that was unknowable at the time the Jones (and Nurse) contract was signed.
One other thing with Nurse that I think is notable is that he’s been much happier and engaging with the media in recent weeks.
For a long stretch there, a couple of years maybe, he seemed to be ornery in all media avails and often very short and down right rude.
it’s great to see him happy and in a positive mind-set.
Other than the one blown out of proportion interview (which i personally liked because the team needed to show they were all business), I’ve found Nurse to be nothing less than a pillar of the community. Performance aside he’s a boon for Edmonton and the causes he supports.
Leon and the odd Connor quip are the only folks I’d say are truly ornery in the media.
For sure, don’t disagree that he’s been a pillar of the community.
That doesn’t really have anything to do with him being in a pissy mood (generally) in pre/post practice/game media avails for a while now – and it wasn’t just the one media avail – its something I’ve noticed for a long long time.
Great to see him smiling and engaging as the norm again these days!
Like I said, I disagree aside from the one outburst. I added the community portion because being unhappy with the media and being unhappy in general are two different things.
Saying he’s smiling and engaging with the media right now, cool. He’s been smiling and engaging this whole time.
Seems like you are trying to take my comment a place of your choosing that isn’t really related but that’s OK.
Seems like you’ve decided you just want to post a comment and leave no room for discussion or disagreement on a blog about discussion.
Fill your boots (or the opposite)
More often than not Nurse should be seen and not heard. Do his talking on the ice. Great to see him smiling.
Wait, what?
Nurse is an assistant captain, not a child.
Of course you want your leadership to address the media.
Some players are better than others addressing the media. Leadership has nothing to do with it. And obviously he isn’t a child.
Without getting too personal I wonder what changed for him? Coffey is pretty sharp I’m glad he’s letting Nurse roam free and playing toward his strengths. Nurse is a driver not a Lee Fogolin stay at home D.
Why does one need someone like Darnell Nurse to be polite? Why can’t he be pissy?
Why the mood-shaming?
I think the change in his demeanor (generally) over the last couple of years has been notable and the recent change back to what I’m used to seeing from Nurse is relatable notable.
Didn’t expect this to be such a hot take or controversial note.
None of these comments are treating it like a hot or controversial take.
I took Chelly tongue in cheek. Why you heff to be mad? (this quote is also tongue in cheek)