This is a lot of names and many numbers. One name, and one number on the line associated with that name, is the key to our conversation today. Can you see it?
The Athletic article today is about Vasily Podkolzin and keeping your stick on the ice while going to the slot like your life depends on it. Article is here.
AHL FORWARDS (ROOKIES AT 20) LAST 20 SEASONS: EVEN-STRENGTH SCORING
Do you see the key name and number? It’s Leon Draisaitl of course, with the number 6 (games played) also central to the story. We cover this all the time in the Farm Workers post, but the high skill kids don’t spend much time in the AHL, they’re on to a skill line in the NHL before you can say ‘Bob’s your uncle’ and take a breath.
On the Condors broadcast the other night, play-by-play broadcaster Ryan Holt (he calls a great game and is astute in his verbal) mentioned Matthew Savoie and his shy scoring totals on the power play. Holt suggested that Savoie will impact the five-on-four more as the season wears along, and that’s exactly true. Lane Pederson’s return will be a boost too, as Colin Chaulk is currently being forced to cobble together a strange brew with the man advantage.
The reason I wanted to talk about this today (I’ve mentioned it recently) is Matthew Savoie. He’s scoring well at even strength and outscoring at a ridiculous rate in the game state. We can’t know for sure, but based on his performance outside the power play, Savoie should be earning an NHL recall before spring.
High AHL point totals over a full season at 20 usually means you’re not getting an NHL skill job (Tyler Benson). Even strong power-play totals (Rob Schremp had 28 PP points as an AHL rookie) can’t help you if the coaching staff doesn’t believe you have the boots.
If you look at the men above who posted the strongest totals offensively at evens (Teemu Hartikainen, Tyler Benson, Marco Roy) the resume lacked something and the results didn’t matter. Meanwhile, Draisaitl was there for a Bakersfield minute before elevating to his rightful spot on an NHL skill line.
Savoie’s comparable on this list is Kailer Yamamoto. Both men had enough speed and hands, with the worry being size. Yamamoto was 5.08, 153 when playing for the Condors, Savoie is listed at 5.09, 179. That 25 pounds, if true, may make him more durable. We don’t know what we don’t know, but it’s interesting factual information.
As for other youngsters currently matriculating, we know from the Farm Workers series that the real heroes are guys like Kyle Brodziak, who have enough offense and enough two-way acumen to find a role on an NHL No. 3 line and thrive. Ryan McLeod looks like a newer edition of that player.
Even lower on the scoring charts, Jujhar Khaira found a way to make the NHL and that will be the route for Jayden Grubbe should he make it to the show.
If you’re fretting about the lack of goals or power-play goals being scored in Bakersfield, and the impact on individual players, honestly don’t sweat it. Draisaitl didn’t set the world on fire, he played six games. That’s the lesson of 20 years staring at AHL forwards. If Savoie plays all season in Bakersfield, and starts 2025-26 there, he’s the new Tyler Benson. It’s the damndest thing, and I know it seems weird, but in most ways the call has already been made on the prospects playing for the Condors. I believe Savoie makes it as a skill winger, and will say once again we are looking at an outstanding start to his AHL season in even-strength scoring and outscoring. Grubbe makes it as the new Chris VandeVelde and Holloway as the new Jason Chimera. We wait.
Thursday on the Lowdown means Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation and we have much to discuss. From the long layoff to what trades we might see before the deadline, and we’ll check on Frank and how much work is getting done at Nation headquarters with all the football today. We’ll talk NFL, MLB and Declan Krueger will have his beloved NCAA football weekly homily. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
One thing I’d like to mention is that its not uncommon for players to be more productive at the NHL level than the AHL level due to quality of teammate. I do think this is concept plays out more for d-man but it does apply to forwards.
A player like Matt Savoie is very skilled but very smart offensively but he’s not a driver per say – he needs other skill and other smart offensive players to compliment.
Maybe I’m grasping here, and no offence to Philp and Caggiula (or Stefan when Caggiula was in the NHL) but Savoie doesn’t have alot to play and make plays with.
At the same time, I would suggest that Savoie is not close and Chaulk mentioned the other day that both he and Philp seem to struggle when games are stacked close together and, truth be told, Savoie was all but a complete non factor the last two games (Philp as well).
Better structure and predictability of play in the NHL help too.
But, I don’t think he has shown the confidence to drive the play against men yet. Sometimes that never comes and sometimes it just takes gaining familiarity with the environment.
I agree, some players need to play with skill to succeed. If Savoie is the high end prospect we think he is, then I would like to see him recalled at the next injury opportunity to show what he has. Even if he starts on the fourth line, there is a good chance with the coach’s tendency to mix things up, he ends up playing some minutes with Draisaitl or Mcdavid. If he pots a couple with them, he could be off to the races.
We know that Caggiula will never be that player so why not give Savoie the opportunity?
Did Jarvantie and Savoie have chemistry together? As you mentioned before Savoie needs to play with skill to succeed.
I would like to note, that Kailer Yamamoto, before his recall right around the turn of the calendar, was impacting AHL MUCH more materially than Matt Savoie has been. Those 2-3 months in the AHL by Yamamoto is right up there with the most impressive I’ve seen – he was creating scoring chances shift after shift after shift.
Savoie has not been consistently impacting the game and shows up with an express display of skill and/or smarts a few times a game.
One very important factor in that comparison is that Yamamoto was 21 and Savoie is 20 and I think that’s a major difference. I would expect that, if Savoie was in the AHL at 21, he’d impact the game like Yamamoto did – maybe more.
Looking at players who succeed in the NHL, they are usually big, fast or both. There are outliers but speed and size are the common path to the NHL.
Note: Gretzky was not fast or big physically but had the big brain.
From the top of the AHL scoring list; Benson, Teemu and Kailer all had a significant downside of either size or speed. NHL pts / 60 for these guys; Benson (.54), Teemu (.27) and Kailer (.46).
Ryan Mcleod has both size and speed. He was 0.32 pts/60 in the AHL and improved to a 1.56 / 60 in the NHL. He is signed to a $2.1 mil contract this year and only RFA at the end of it.
If JJ and friends are such adopters to analytics, why would you trade a young player with upside on a good contract (Mcleod – 25) for a player (Savoie) that is significantly deficient in one of the key areas (size) and is in his first year of pro?
Oiler Management’s answer: To have Savoie for the future and keep Adam Henrique. Sure, Henrique is a career 2.14 pts / 60 player. But at 35 is way past prime and is only going to decline.
Conclusion: I do not see this as a win for the Oilers.
The only way it’s a win is if Savoie becomes the best player of the 3 by next year.
I think the Oilers decided Henrique would be better than McLeod for the next 2 years. I think they were wrong.
Having both of Henrique and MacLeod on the roster wouldn’t hurt mostly because they are proven commodities.
McLeod was a perimeter player. If he could have made it a priority to drive the net with that speed he would have been a fixture for a decade.
Mcleod was traded due to being a soft perimeter player in the playoffs. If he had any grit to his game the Oilers would of kept him.
If Wayne Gretzky wasn’t fast, how did he win so many races to the puck?
The Great One was an unconventional skater but a supremely skilled one. Unparalleled first step. Ditto second step. Great edges. Could stop or turn on a dime.
I saw Wayne win a 100 meter sprint
Nothing beats foot speed like anticipation. Gretz had the most elite anticipation of perhaps any athlete in any sport.
Apropos of nothing, Blue Bullet Brad tweets out the, since October 14, the Oilers have the 5th best points percentage in the NHL.
I know it has often been less than visually pleasing – there have been bad giveaways and blown leads and inconsistent goaltending and many underperforming players, etc., etc., but, at the same time, after a VERY bad first little bit, the team how played better and they are accumulating points.
WC PTS LAST 10 GAMES
COL 14
MIN 14
CAL 13
WPG 12
DAL 12
VGK 12
SEA 12
EDM 11
ANA 11
VCR 10
LAK 10
STL 10
UTA 8
SJS 9
CHI 9
NSH 9
This indicates that parity is working as intended and also shows how difficult it is to move up in the standings.
Two things that stand out are that COL after a poor start is reaping the benefit of having Nichushkin, Lehkkonen and Drouin back in the top 6 although Drouin was just re-injured.
The other is that WPG appears to be cooling off after a torrid start. I wouldn’t be surprised if MIN passes them in the standings in the near future.
OP is talking about a 19 game sample.
Colorado has played 20 games since the date stated and has gone 13-7-0 for 26pts
Oilers have gone 11-6-2 for 24pts.
The Oilers have had McDavid, Hyman, Arvidsson, and Nurse all miss multiple games during this time.
Way to go troll.
Yes…you can always slice and dice a season to make your team appear better than it is.
But 10 game segments provide a decent sample of recent play that accounts for all teams trends and that is particularly noticeable now that Colorado isn’t playing AHL players in the top 6.
Games missed:
McDavid 3
Nichushkin 17
Hyman 2
Lehkkonen 12
Arvidsson 5
Drouin 19
Nurse 3
Toews 4
Ross Colton (8 goals in 10 games) 13
Miles Wood 7
Not at all the same.
I like Billy Guerin why did you
have to give him the kiss of death.
He will be just fine…watch.
Next 2 games at home against CHI and NSH.
Wrong again. I thought the answer was always Pouliot.
12th Hugh jessman (NYR) – 2 gp
15th Robert Nilsson (NYI) – 252 gp
22nd MA Pouliot (EDM) – 192 gp
25th Anthony Stewart (FLA) – 262 gp
30th Shawn Belle (STL) – 20 gp
I’ve always found it entertaining that 3 of the only 5, 1st round biggest misses have majority of GP in oiler jerseys.
2003 everything oilers touched didnt turn into gold. The reverse midas years!!
Huge Speciman sighting!
Happy Turkey Day, Yankee Dixie Dandies! May your drumsticks be juicy and your hockey sticks groovy.
Some rest, some practice… hopefully this squad comes back with fire in their boots. I wonder if that’s part of the problem. The level of desire after playing essentially EIGHT months of playoff hockey last year just isn’t there yet. Plus, after dragging themselves up off that cellar floor, they feel like they can make the playoffs from anywhere. Damn, now that I say that… might take another month or two of mediocre before we see the pedal smashed to the metal.
Was hoping Philp’s cup of coffee would see the game slow down a bit for him in the A. Sometimes that happens and the player takes a step, but it hasn’t happened yet. Still, the young man is coming from a year off. Some early patience is justified.
Savoie’s tale of the tape will come, I think, when we take a look at the season splits. They’ve been a big tell in the past when it comes to first pro year. Hopefully, we see the same again.
Prospectos!
Twice the OHL representation tonight with the Colts and Knights in play.
London has reeled off 15 straight wins and has taken over top spot in the CHL rankings. They are playing a Peterborough team that is dead last in the O. Will O’Reilly and Nicholl feast? We wait.
Barrie hasn’t been too shabby either with a 15-7 that leads the Central Division.
Akey & Wakely, Attorneys at Law, and the Knights take the ice at 5 p.m. Condor time.
Love the title of the post today. Go ders
Good morning LT, is there a site that has AHL EV boxcars broken out?
The AHL site, but you have to do it manually.
Thanks
I always have to remind myself to click over from “Standard” to “Expanded”. Lots of useful data in there.
How does Noah Philp rate on this list? I’m a bit surprised he isn’t already suiting up in Edmonton. Derek Ryan seems to be fading; he isn’t even a regular on the PK. He used to be the #1 unit with Nuge now it’s Henrique. The time is now for Philp IMO.
Related to this topic of PK is a fantastic article and analysis by Mr McCurdy …
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/did-one-coaching-wrinkle-turn-around-edmonton-oilers-flagging-penalty-kill-knoblauch-emberson-nurse-ekholm-hugent-hopkins-skinner-janmark-brown-henrique
Thank you!
Thank you kindly, GHHT!
Philp is at 14, 4-3-8 /.5 PPG this season taking out his 1 PP Goal. 2nd behind Benson and Leon doesn’t count
Philp is 26, Savoie is 20. That alone makes them poor comps. However, Philp is a far more capable player in most areas at this time imo. That shouldn’t be a surprise.
Right forgot the age. I wonder how much offense transfers for him
remember the balance photo ? We have a large need for players like Philp…he will never score 20 goals…he will however contribute….solid checking, faceoff wins, and a smart, durable dude to play against. He is a perfect 4th line centre,
I think we can include Grubbe in any trade.
On another note….has everyone forgot about what a great young goalie Spence Knight was 3 years ago….I know he has crashed and burned…however, If he`s a free agent which I believe he is…maybe it might be worth a phone call.
If players still take half their AHL scoring to the NHL which I believe it once was, that would make Philp a significant addition to the bottom 6 at .25 5v5 PPG
Last season for players that played a lot and saw bottom 6 Brown and Janmark got .17 5v5 PPG, Perry in 38 games .29 5v5 PPG
Noah Philp’s role would be as a fourth line center, scoring isn’t necessarily an overly important factor in that role. What is important is that he can win draws, play solid defensively and play significant minutes on the PK. He has the size & speed and has already shown he is capable in that role. He’s ready. Why waste his time in the AHL?
With the Oilers injury woes, I am a bit disappointed we didn’t see Savoie in the show for at least a few games already. Philp could have seen more time as well.
We have seen the results of slow playing these kids that have earned a chance. Hopefully Savoie and Philp are called up soon and are here to stay
Part of the issue is the Oilers have so much management and coaching turnover. Savoie isn’t well known to Bowman, I don’t think. So the reports coming from Bakersfield are his guide. Philp is another story. Bowman saw him in preseason, suspect he gets called up for good sometime in 2024-25.
I think the waiver pickup of Kapanen may have something to do with not calling up Savoie.
But I no longer see Derek Ryan blocking Noah Philp from playing with the big club in Edmonton.
Agree, It’s time to see Philp instead of Ryan. Savoie could have been recalled instead of Drake. Caggiula has played pretty well, but he can’t be in the long term plans.
Philp will replace Ryan but it isn’t necessary to make this adjustment at the 22 game mark. Let Philp play 20+ minutes a night in the Bake and let him come up to The Show for good once he’s at full stride in mid- to late January.
Ryan then goes down to mentor in the AHL until he re-joins the Oilers as a Black Ace in May.
Why is it so important for Philp to play 20+ minutes a night in the Bake in a role he won’t be playing in Edmonton? When he could be gaining useful experience in Edmonton right now, in the role that he has shown to be more than capable of, at the NHL level.
Caggiula is more suitable to play LW on the fourth line and has more NHL experience than Savoie.
I don’t disagree, but Savoie should get a shot for several reasons. He is our top prospect so giving him a look and an NHL pay check shows the Oilers value the player. Our coach blends the lines often when the team struggles which has been a lot so far this year. A player with Savoie’s skill may start on the fourth line, but end upon the first or second in a hurry. Then if he pots a couple, who knows, he may never look back.
I suspect Savoie isn’t, if at all lighter than Nuge on draft day. Think Nuge had 2, perhaps 3 more inches in height so I don’t believe Savoie will be as frail as Yamamoto.
That’s fair. Yamamoto was quicker in the AHL, got to more pucks, but Savoie uses his body more to separate player from puck. So your point is taken.
Do you have any idea what his tap out submission hold is like. Lagesson’s is apparently pretty good
I saw that, was amazed. He did play in Dubuque, though. 🙂