The Edmonton Oilers are a 4-3 team in a 3-2 league. This year’s team has some real holes and it’s fair to wonder if general manager Stan Bowman can fill enough of them between now and the deadline. The team’s dilemma can be summed up in one player: Ty Emberson. He’s clearly a good young defenseman but that’s not the same as saying he’ll be a trustworthy player in the Stanley Cup finals. Edmonton has those questions marbled through the roster. On the other hand, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins all contributed handsomely to a win in Salt Lake City last night. Tonight, the club will have a more difficult test, this time in Denver.
The Athletic article today is about the original sin of the Connor McDavid era, and what followed. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 12-9-2, 26 points in 23 games
The Oilers are right around my predicted point total for the month, with an inviting schedule in December. The team’s 26 points in 23 games is a 93-point pace and we’re finally in the window of a playoff spot. Of course, more is expected.
THE NUMBERS
The first thing we have to talk about is the Ekholm-Bouchard pairing. The duo are now 19-18 goals at five-on-five, but running 60 percent in expected goals. The problem? November results (8-12 goals in the last 10 games) have skewed the view for the team’s most trusted defensive tandem. Puck IQ has Ekhom running almost 40 percent of overall time versus elites (7:21 a night) with Bouchard (7:16) in the range. Brett Kulak (6:01) and Darnell Nurse (5:54) round out a clear top four, and all of these men have a DFF percentage (smart Corsi, like expected goals) well over 50 percent. It’s cherry when it’s humming, but the top pair hit a rut and the steering’s a little off now. By the way, Troy Stecher is also playing larger than expected minutes and is just shy of 50 percent. Emberson, at 42 percent DFF percentage versus elites, is the only worry. As always, sample size reminder.
The forwards looked rusty early, and Utah has some fine players (the Bjugstad line and Sergachev pairing were effective versus McDavid) but the club takes way too many penalties to survive in this league. Need to iron that out.
I was happy for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, his goal was pure Nuge. Such a smart and industrious player, and he had the boots to keep that breakaway and hold it until a perfectly placed shot ended the game in Edmonton’s favor. Music! Nuge is my favourite player-type, smart two-way guy with enough ammo to land among the top six scorers on the team most seasons. If Dave Keon had a son who played in the NHL, he’d look a lot like Nuge.
The five-on-five HDSC’s last night were filled with role players. Adam Henrique (two), Vasily Podkolzin (also two, plus a goal, Bowman will want to invite him over for dinner because he’s making the GM look smart) plus one each from Connor Brown, Brett Kulak, and then McDavid and RNH. This team needs secondary scoring, perhaps last night was a sign it’s getting closer.
Not much to say about tonight, check the Avs injured list for improved health and after that it’ll be all about the goaltending for both teams.
Rodrigue with the start tonight (his 100th) and Lane Pederson makes his return.
Haven’t seen the lineups yet but Holty did not mention Jarventie so I presume he remains out, Arvidsson style.
I’m about to check out the PWHL Boston @ Toronto, on CBC. Interested to see how the 2nd season of women’s pro game looks. Gotta give it a chance, should be fun.
Just a reminder that Amazon Prime Video will have a PWHL game of the week on Tuesdays for the entire season.
Jeff Marek’s new show debuts on Monday and his guest…….Jay Woodcroft!
Eating a small amount of crow pie this morning due to turning off the game half way through. Too many times we have seen this years version of the team play poorly through the first half of the game and continue that way for the rest of the game. Not entertaining enough to keep my old body from turning in for the night.
It’s great news that the PP came through for them (finally!). It’s one of my Favorite things about the Oilers-is watching the smooth and finesse PP that we are used to seeing.
Anyway, just wanted to admit to eating some crow pie and wish the Oilers continued success tonight on HockeyNight! Go Oilers!
I hear ya! I had decided if Utah went up 3-0 I was done. Fortunately that didn’t happen and special teams to the rescue!
Nugent Bowman had a sit down with Bowman before last night’s game
A solid read:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5957912/2024/11/30/oilers-standings-start-stan-bowman/
He hasn’t engaged with Bouch’s agent yet on contract. He’s been happy with the defence and thinks the offence needs to improve (not necessarily externally) and isn’t concerned about the goaltending (but it needs to be more consistent).
Would he really say otherwise re defence and goaltending?
Nice to see Nuge get that goal. He has had a rough go offensively this year.
Yes they looked so flat early, played better in the 2nd then let off a bit in parts of the 3rd.
They will need the A game tonight and hopefully the Colorado goalie stinks it up as they have mostly all year. Trading for Wedgewood must be an attempt to stop some goals. Wonder if he gets pushed into action tonight?
Would like to see Skinner bumped to the 2nd. Tonight. Not sure we do.
Need a statement win with a great effort by all tonight. .
The most encouraging thing about last night was the Podkolzin goal it was a goal scorers goal and a reason why he was drafted so high. Confidence and opportunity are a thing hopefully this opens the floodgates. The N.H.L is such a fine line this stretch of games could be a defining moment in Podkolzin career. Meanwhile Lavoie who Podkolzin essentially took is lunch is wasting away in margaritaville
Interesting wrinkle about the Avs has Rantanen potentially walking at end of season. He’d certainly be in 14 range.
Avs tried to do a Boston and get an internal cap with the Mackinnon deal but Rantanens side isnt buying it.
“Despite the potential for a massive payday, LeBrun thinks it’s more likely Rantanen will sign an extension with the Avalanche to stay in contention for the Stanley Cup rather than explore alternatives in the open market.”
“I like the team, I like the city,” Rantanen said before the start of the season. “If you win a Stanley Cup here, why would I want to leave, you know? That’s the only thing I want to say about it. We’ll see, it’s done when it’s done.”
https://athlonsports.com/nhl/colorado-avalanche/avalanches-mikko-rantanen-targetting-record-breaking-contract-report
Talk is cheap.
If the Avs let Rantanen get to market, then someone is going to offer him a Brinks truck.
Time to step up and pay him Leon money.
They are also running some bad luck I think.
Last night:
1) 1st goal was 98% on McDavid. Yes, Bouchard timed the slide wrong but it wasn’t all that bad and McDavid could easily have prevented that goal – could have and should have.
2) The tying goals was 75% on Nuge – he really left Bouchard in an impossible spot.
Bouchard and McDavid with extremely high risk centre ice play on that first goal against, before the failures on defending.
Agree, I at first thought they were gonna get away with it. Even when the play turned the other way, I figured McDavid would skate down his check, since he is the fastest skater in the league and should have been embarrassed by the turnover.
Two points on the power play, a comeback win, and all is forgiven. On to Denver!
Meh – Bouch got McDavid the puck back in a zero danger area – McDavid took three full strides to put himself in to danger and then tried a high risk move.
All McDavid on the giveaway.
Mcdavid set up the Draisaitl goal, while also scoring the 3rd goal. His mistake was more then made up for but let’s keep harping on the best players.
Nuge scored the OT winner, but let’s keep harping on the best players.
We could be celebrating and chatting about the good things that happen in a win but nah let’s harp on the best players to drive home the point it’s all their fault.
Starting to sound like McDavid has treated you in a way Messier treated Nostradamus.
Some fans don’t ignore or forget about the elephant in the room. Doesn’t mean people didn’t enjoy them winning
If they can’t dial it in as a team to a higher level than last year, much higher than right now, they are reducing their chances to get a Cup. They can reach the potential that is on paper, the leaders have to want to and lead the group. Leon has been so far, some others have been good, but there are too many not playing well enough
I like every win, but have lost the taste for constant comebacks. They should be beating most teams clean given their underlying stats. They can play with and beat any team. Single events are hurting them, doing the right thing every shift
Will you e-mail the list of acceptable topics and which players can be criticized in the morning so I know.
For now, I will choose to comment on the game as I see it and, if McDavid effs up (badly) on a goal against, I don’t see any reason why it shouldn’t be part of the game analysis.
With the memo sent out about Chris Kreider being available Seravalli and Gregor were talking about how rarely two good teams trade two good players to each other. It s almost always good players moving from weak teams to good teams for assets.
Saying that, who says no to a Nuge/Kreider swap.
We know what Nuge is for us. A veritable Swiss Army knife.
Kreider has average 40 goals the last few seasons. He’s 6’3”, 230 and can fly. If Leon likes playing with Podkolzin, I can’t imagine how he’d find CK.
Kreider makes more but the deal ends earlier.
Nuge has a NMC.
Holland loved giving those out especially for players whose contracts go past the age of 35.
Are you suggesting Edmonton is a more desirable destination that New York City?
No way Jose.
Why not?
No, If they think of actually asking Nuge to ever move his clause , Which they won’t, you would hope they are looking for a really good D man coming back with a similar contract.
I think a lot of players would be pissed as well.
I doubt it. Not sure why Oiler players would be pissed if the trade made them better
It’s all about Cups no player is bigger than the crest. People were having nightmares after Armstrong made a funny helping out his buddy. Could you imagine the pity party around here if Nuge was traded in a real hockey trade.
He PK’s as well. If it was possible he’s a better player and way better scorer, I’d do it. I also like his size
Hard team to judge right now with us missing 3 top 6 forwards. Need to keep banking points and find another D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVkUvmDQ3HY
I also think the team may have continuing sickness running through it a bit.
Drai looked and sounded less than 100% in his post-game and Knob sounded terrible.
I think the Oilers should do their season ticket holders meet and greet in the spring, outside of flu season. Maybe that’s just me, but they interacted with a lot of fans on Monday. I kind of hope that’s the case because that might excuse the play last night
Prospectland!
More international hockey from Northern Island as BU battles Notre Dame in the Friendship Four.
Also, Flint was scheduled to play at McDavid’s old stomping grounds (Erie) tonight but foul weather has hampered their egress from Niagara. Game has been postponed for the nonce.
And Berry has missed the last two games. Shall he suit up tonight? We wait.
Boston University (Lachance, Copponi) @ noon
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ noon
St. Lawrence (Mazura) @ 2 p.m.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 4 p.m.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5:30 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Devon time.
Currently there is only one forward that we should call a strong two way player in the heart of the game, and that’s Leon. No other forward is performing well (or to expected norms like Connor) that way looking at GF%, some are certainly getting dragged down by others (like Pod), but results are the point of it, part of the solution or part of the problem
Connor, Nuge, Bouch are all lost in the supermarket defensively at the moment. They will regress I’m sure to closer to norms, but it is certainly time to piss or get off the pot, if they want to realize their ultimate goal. Not just in the first 23 games, but also in the big picture. We have seen this movie too many times, and it’s not a holiday classic
For example the Utah’s have 3 forwards above GF% 64 at 5v5. The Avs have 4 above GF% 50, the Oilers the same, and in that quartet are Leon, Rico, Brown and Arvi. The Avs’ has MacK Nichushkin Rantanen and Ivan Ivan. More like what you would expect, given their injuries so far. The Oilers’ is not what you would expect
Like Eichel, MacK is beacoup de problemes for us, with the acceleration and not being small players. They will have to be very good against the MacRant line, be it Connor or Leon. Cannot give that guy an inch, and forget being on the wrong side of him
Payback time fellas, for that playoff thing
LT, if the Oilers are a 4-3 team in a 3-2 league, what are the Avs?
The hard truth is that it’s a 3-3 league and the team with an extra goal (or Hellebuyck) has the best chance to win. For the record, here are the current totals:
League: 3.09 GF 3.09 GA
Avalanche: 3.29 GF 3.71 GA
Oilers: 2.96 GA 3.13 GA
Colorado superior scoring team, and Colorado simply terrible defensively.
Colorado can’t stay healthy.
The latest casualty is 2RD Josh Manson who left last night’s game and did not return.
He was replaced by NCAA free agent signing Sam Malinski who has fewer than 50 NHL games played.
The AVs finished the game playing with 5 D.
No idea who will fill that hole.
Josh Manson was having a poor season already. The exact type of player one might expect to decline as he gets older.
The Byram for Mittelstadt trade would be a classic example of trading defense for offense. They thought they were trading from a position of strength, but that no longer appears to be the case
Impossible to judge a D when you have the worst goaltending in the league.
Manson was fine last season.
And Byram is a left shot where the Avs have Devon Toews and Sam Girard and Oliver Kylington locked in.
Kylington was insurance, he wasn’t the plan.
Manson has a poor DFF and relative DFF. How funny you are! Nitpicking Oilers D and PK with some of the worst goaltending analytics in the league, but Manson gets a free pass?
If Manson is the solution, then the Avs have bigger problems.
And the Oilers have dealt with injuries to McDavid, Nurse, Hyman, and Arvidsson. In addition to Kane being out. But keep playing that tiny violin for the Avs…
So, you seem to be suggesting poor goaltending doesn’t affect a defenseman’s stats.
Consider this:
Cale Makar, the best D in the world, who is on pace for a 109 point season, is -1 on the season.
And yes, Kylington WAS the plan for 3LD. The Avs signed Calvin deHaan for $800K as the backup plan.
He has played 17 games due to injuries to Kylington.
The Avs can’t stay healthy, year after year after year.
Perhaps the manager should acquire players that generally play full seasons.
Totally. It was more of a comment that the Avs are built very similarly, and are actually closer to a 3-4 team in a 3-3 league right now, while the Oilers are currently a 3-3 team that should be a 4-3 team if their offensive guns were firing.
Last year there were 2 blowouts and a close low scoring game where both goalies played lights out. I totally agree with you that there will be lots of offensive chances at both ends, and it would be a fool’s game to try to predict the score tonight with inconsistent goalies on both teams right now
Some nights it seems like a 5-2 league with 2 empty net goals skewing everything.
Fair.
I think every coach who pulls his goalie a second time after giving one up should be fined $1 million. So sick of all these bogus goals messing with the stats.
Great idea. Proceeds to the local food bank.
I assume you weren’t a fan of Knob pulling the goalie down 3 a little while back?
As much as I’ve hated our goalering the Avs are way way worse. And I don’t get the Wedgewood trade.
At some point, Colorado is going to have to bite the bullet and swing a significant trade to bring in a legit #1.
Don’t think Wedgewood helps much as all.
Well, they need a backup goaltender. Don’t they? The alternatives are Kevin Mandolese or Trent Miner. Easier to swing a deal for a backup than for a legit #1.
Sound familiar?
It is familiar.
Georgiev îs 4th worst in the league in goals save above expected at -8.8.
The other 3:
Arturs Silovs – Vancouver – -9
Stuart Skinner – Edmonton – -9.8
Connor Ingram – Utah – -10.9
I wonder if at some point Colorado might explore swinging a deal for John Gibson if Anaheim retains 50%.
Gibson is having a pretty good season with a .922 in 6 games started.
Maybe, if Edmonton doesn’t beat them to it. But Edmonton isn’t concerned about their goaltending. Why should Colorado?
Funny how things change month to month. Nurse looks amazing out there. I am especially impressed with his skating right now. He gets in trouble when he doesn’t move his feet. On the other hand the Bouch Ekholm pair seem to be struggling big time this year. Hopefully everyone can put it together in the spring.
Nurse started the play on the first goal from his own end wall. Then when Draisaitl made the (fantastic!) outlet pass to Podkolzin, who jumps up as the odd man in the rush? Nurse.
Darnell didn’t get a point on the play, but that goal is not scored without his involvement.
They have the ability to be a 2 GA team on their own. These holes comes from internal mistakes that should be fixed.
McDavid AWFUL on the first goal. Forget the giveaway, that backcheck was worse than anything Bouch has done this year.
Nuge in the 3rd goal was the primary issue.
The team can leak but, for the most part, the leaks should be plugged internally, from what I see, by playing more committed 2-ways.
The Oilers drafted offense and it shows. Every night. All of their cannons are pointed in the offensive direction.
They have the ability, but the jury is out on whether they have the desire, the commitment. And can they score enough if they are focused on allowing just 2 GA per game. Time will tell.
I think they can. Of the top 10 teams in Goal Diff, only one has scored less than the Oilers, and only one (not the same team) has given up more goals
I don’t agree with LT about they are an all offense team. Leon and Nuge were drafted as being good two way players. Nuge was a suspect offensively at 5v5, Leon has far exceeded his projections
Hyman, Pod, Rico, Brown, Janmark and Ryan are supposed to be also at least decent defensively, none of them team drafted. Probably Arvi as well, not sure about Kapanen, Skinner no. The org has been trying to acquire better two way forwards for a long time
To me the question is why can’t they mostly play a reliable consistent game? No matter the coach, no matter the roster? I think it has to do with how the top players are wired. Connor and Bouch are so focused on attacking they don’t seem able to keep playing two ways in their heads at least most of the time. It doesn’t seem like they are thinking when they are playing, just doing. You don’t want to overthink, but you still should be aware. Both have had periods of playing dominant two way hockey, but it doesn’t sustain
Connor and Leon are very stubborn as well. They still force plays that are risky, and they get burnt plenty on them because it’s not Hasek in the nets. The top players still get drawn back into playing cute. Leon at least acknowledged it in the post game, talking about taking care of and valuing the puck, which leads to more opportunities because you still have the puck. This is a veteran team, and they should be over a lot of this stuff by now, and know better
I have said Connor would benefit by being more deceptive. He likes to bull rush teams, and they are getting better at stopping him. Teams are used to playing him now, know what to do. I assume he’s fully healthy, and he still passes up chances to shoot, the one too many passes thing. When he is more of a direct threat to score, it opens things up for him because it’s more to defend, gives him more options
I agree with you, the top players have to stay committed to playing smarter hockey, and basically show more respect to their opponent’s abilities. In that they might be better than the others, but still are not going to highlight reel them more than occasionally
They same core group found the desire last year, right?
The main culprits last night were McDavid and Nuge.
They did and, as I said, the jury is still out on whether they have the desire and commitment to do it…again.
Disagree, Bouchard has had a far worse backcheck.
Bouchard netted 2 assists.
But he ended the game -3.
That’s very difficult to accomplish in a 4-3 game.
McDavid also had 2 pts and was a -3. Do you think he’s a bad player or just someone who had a bad game at ES?
Also, you can’t trash the special teams and then selectively ignore the impact that it has on a game. Which was clearly the case last night for a game I’m guessing you didn’t watch
Bouch got two dashes on attrocious sequences by McDavid and Nuge.
HH clearly didn’t watch the game. But even his ability to interpret the boxscore from a single game is flawed
Flashes of Barrie as of late. Which is very worrisome
Oilers and Avs have the same amount of points in the last 20 games played.
Bouchard and McDavid are awesome.
I know exactly which back-check you are talking about and I disagree.
Bouchard had zero chance to actually catch the attacker (Ekholm was closer) whereas McDavid could easily have prevented that goal last night.
There’s been a few backchecks that Bouchard has given up on altogether.
Bouchards play on that goal was just as bad as McDavids play. He layed on the ice and did zero. Pickard was pretty much as bad too lol. 3 ring circus.
You’re forgetting the fact that OP has decided it’s all Nuge’s fault on the 3rd goal for bailing the zone like the rest of the forward line.
Is it arguable that Nuge isn’t primary culpable?
Not even close to as bad – not even in the same ballpark, in my opinion.
Bouch mistimed the slide a bit but he did take away the shot/net drive with the slide and his goalie could have helped him out by cutting off the pass.
Take away the horrible turnover by McDavid, his backcheck was about as weak and “lazy” as they get – he 100% could easily have covered the goal-scorer with one or two more strides as opposed to stopping and gliding and watching.
Bouch’s slide was very effective. Took away the shot and the early pass, left only a cross crease option or sharp angle shot. Pickard should have been ready to block that pass and McD quit on the play.
I disagree completely – his mistimed the slide, slightly, but he took away the shot, forced the player wide and gave his goalie the opportunity to break up the pass.
McDavid, stopped and glided when he easily could have got and checked the goal scorer.
Its not even close.
Tough turn around for the Oilers but they should have the rest advantage. Colorado also played last night in the road – their game ended later and their flight from Dallas is longer. They also played Wed so this is 3 in 4.
Oilers need to take advantage with their top goalie, rested, in net against either a struggling Georgiev on back to backs or a just traded Wedgewood.
Lots of goal scoring tonight. Not your typical goaltendering duel. Oilers win 7-6 in OVERTIME!!!
Are you sure Skinner is our top goalie?
Yup.
I am highly confident, yes.
LT totally agree with your comment “too many holes to fill”. Was great we got two points last night but fair to say we were outplayed 5 on 5. Connor had a tough night as did our top pairing D. Hopefully it was the lengthy lay off but it seems we are constantly looking for excuses for poor play. Still time to find their game but they currently do not look like a championship team…..
Darnell Nurse revenge tour continues as he was excellent again last night and led the defence in even strength ice time. He and Stecher were the only positive d-men last night – we know the goals against the top pair but Kulak/Emberson got absolutely crushed last night.
Yep. Nurse has been excellent for the majority of this season. The post-injury games were particularly encouraging.
I do not think Emberson’s numbers versus elites are a real concern, they are a function of deployment IMO. Emberson plays very few minutes with McD or Drai. When he is facing elites he is doing it with poor help.
If Bouchard gets hurt in the postseason, are you comfortable moving Emberson into a feature role? That’s the question. I like the player, not sure he’s ready for that assignment.
Not comfortable with Stetcher, Dermott, Brown either. Vinny could not handle a feature role either! Broberg’s stats from the playoffs left some questions too, although his end results were quite good.
RD, same as it ever was.
I think Nurse-Kulak is a pairing you can go to war with now.
I know it’s always unpopular to say it. But maybe it’s time to see Nurse on the top pair with Bouchard. Let Ekholm mentor Emberson & have Kulak play with Stecher. I know Stecher played well last night, but still an upgrade couldn’t hurt.
Ok, but that wasn’t your point being discussed. Your point was
Your point wasn’t whether the team could go to war with Nurse-Kulak. We can discuss that, but that’s a somewhat different topic than your question to which I replied.
How can Bouchard get hurt? He doesn’t touch anybody. He politely gets out of the way of shots. It a guy has a step on him, he waves him by. He has a quick release pass to avoid hits. Just like Larry Murphy, he is a sure thing to play 2000 games.
And he covers himself in bubble wrap.
Honestly it is hard to say based on his usage so far. He has not really been tested. Clearly the coaching staff thinks he has a ways to go before he is a real option in the top 4 (based on minutes and deployment).
Well, maybe he doesn’t get to the rink in time.
Colorado Avalanche
@Avalanche
·
56m
We have traded Justus Annunen and a 2025 draft pick to the Nashville Predators in exchange for Scott Wedgewood.
Fun fact: I have a nephew named Justus. When he was an infant, his father (my bro-in-law, a Habs fan) dubbed him “The Goalie” for his uncanny resemblance to Gump Worsley at the time.
Believe Giorgiev played last night so should be advantage Oilers in goal tonight. 🤞
Georgiev is the worst starting G in the league. I hope we light him up often.
At least Skinner will be well rested.
Probably see Scott Wedgewood tonight, he was just traded to Colorado by Nashville.
Wedgewood is 32 & 1-2-1 with a 3.69 GAA & .878 SV%. Playing behind Saros. Skinner is 7-8-1 with 3.23 GAA & .882 SV%. LOL Playing behind Pickard. Should be an interesting Goalie battle tonight.
Wedgewood should be well rested too; he’s only played 4 games this season.
We will be treated to some spectacular goalering tonight.
Wedgewood had a strong game vs. EDM in there. He was the goalie of record when McDavid got his 1000th point, but a major reason why NSH got 1 point from that game.
And Pickard was in goal that night.