As we await the 2024-25 trade deadline (Slats 1987 was stellar, although Kevin Lowe bested him in 2006), we can observe progress being made in real time. Some of the October disappointments got their wheels turning in November and the results are worth discussing.
NOVEMBER SCORING (FORWARDS)
- Connor McDavid 3.17 (1.21)
- Kasperi Kapanen 2.41 (four games)
- Mattias Janmark 2.32 (0.83)
- Leon Draisaitl 2.24 (2.04)
- Connor Brown 2.16
- Vasily Podkolzin 2.13 (1.00)
- Adam Henrique 1.49 (0.46)
- Zach Hyman 1.36 (0.47)
- RNH 1.03 (0.73)
- Derek Ryan 1.01
- Viktor Arvidsson 0.88 (1.13)
- Jeff Skinner 0.77 (1.93)
- Corey Perry 0 (1.02)
These are the November five-on-five points-60 with October in brackets. Connor McDavid roared back in November after a shy October, with Leon Draisaitl quality in both months. Kasperi Kapanen played just four November games but had an impact and that might be a sneaky-brilliant waiver claim. Connor Brown didn’t piss a drop in October but is coming on now. Vasily Podkolzin is a helluva story, he truly is, and if he can finish the season around 1.80 pts-60 at five-on-five he could have a future with this team. You can see the veterans at the bottom, and know there’s plenty of room to grow in December. The Nuge seems to be rolling now. Mattias Janmark got his George Jetson upgrade and is flying now.
NOVEMBER EXPECTED GOALS (DEFENSE)
- Mattias Ekholm 59 pct (60 pct)
- Evan Bouchard 58 pct (59 pct)
- Darnell Nurse 57 pct (46 pct)
- Troy Stecher 52 pct (46 pct)
- Brett Kulak 43 pct (62 pct)
- Ty Emberson 35 pct (60 pct)
- Travis Dermott 29 pct (37 pct)
- Joshua Brown 28 pct
All numbers five-on-five. Good information here, as we see the top pairing (Mattias Ekholm-Evan Bouchard) has been rocking in the free world both months. The November actual goal share for the pairing (48 percent) was slightly underwater.
Darnell Nurse and Troy Stecher recovered from subpar October events to post positive expect goal percentages. Nurse (57 percent) is especially encouraging. Nurse-Kulak were 3-0 goals with 61 percent expected goals in November, meaning Kulak struggled elsewhere. In the month of November, Kulak-Emberson posted an expected goal share of 30 percent (most of the drain near the end of the month) in 110 minutes. I would like to see Nurse-Kulak full time.
GOALTENDERS SAVE PERCENTAGE
- Stuart Skinner .908 (.890)
- Calvin Pickard .893 (.943)
The Oilers goaltending has featured a hot hand in each of the two months, perhaps December sees both men deliver quality. Stuart Skinner’s last two games saved his overall November totals, and that’s a good arrow for the days to come.
Looking at this roster currently, I would like No. 3 LH defense, RHC Noah Philp and more scoring wingers. That last item is complicated though, because Kapanen and Podkolzin are scoring, Nuge went electric at the Newport Folk Festival on the weekend, and you know Zach Hyman plus Viktor Arvidsson have more to give. Jeff Skinner too, if they let him out of the dungeon.
At noon today, we kick out the jams and start another week on the Lowdown. Guests include Rachel Doerrie from ESPN and Betalytics, plus Jason Gregor from the JG Show. Topics include a strong weekend for the Oilers, the Bruins season, NFL and Elks. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
The Athletic: Oilers top-20 prospects, winter 2024.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5958590/2024/12/02/lowetide-edmonton-oilers-top-20-prospects-ranking-winter-2024/
Doesn’t seem like Hyman will be back for tomorrow:
Per Stauff, this was practice:
Hopefully the Oilers are actively shopping Phil Kemp. He is obviously not in the plans and will be a UFA at the end of the season. Not much value there, but they should see if there are any takers, or at least use him as a throw in for a bigger trade at the deadline
That duo is proving to be real, isn’t it?
The problem is Stecher/Emberson as the 3rd pairing is far less than idea (I like Stecher but on his off side…?).
Stecher has strung together some good games playing a bit with Nurse and a bit on a 3rd pairing – I don’t think there is sustain in Stecher’s game, its really a size and grind of the season issue.
I think that is the one real add in-season – a legit 4/5 d-man – someone that can either play 2RD with Nurse or 3LD with Emberson and knock Stecher out to some solid injury fill in depth!
Surely it’s better to have a fully functioning top 4 rather than risk messing it up for the sake of the bottom pairing defence.
Is that 1.80 P/60 “good enough” for Leon’s winger?
I would suggest that, with everything else he brings, including very responsible 2-way play, yes, yes it is.
I’m very thankful that Alvin and Rutherford determined that they didn’t have room for Podz on their opening roster (at $1MM X 2) and started the season with both Nils Aman and Aatu Raty.
I think it has already proven to be a great claim given the situation at the time – two injured skill forwards (plus Kane) and nothing in the AHL that is pushing for a look.
He’s filled in well.
Question is the plan when Hyman and Arvidsson are both health and there are no other injuries.
I think we can presume with confidence management will want to get down to 21 players on the roster. Drake is any easy re-assign but who else goes?
The only options up front and the new guy (Kapanen) and D. Ryan. I think Ryan is struggling but I’m not sure management is willing to let him go without another center or, at least, another right shot faceoff guy. He was 8-1 on the draw on Saturday night. Sure, the likes of Janmark can “shift to play center” but he’s not a center and its a different position – leave Janmark having a great season where he is on the wing.
Could they perhaps take a big risk and go with 6D on the roster? I mean Dermott is clearly the least impactful guy on the roster but can they risk an illness, injury, etc. leading to going in to a game with 5D?
Possible option is both sides shake hands and say “nice try” and Skinner waives his NTC so long as it’s to a playoff team.
Bigger question may be what to do with Arvidsson. $4M for a broken winger for 2 years isn’t really appealing. Would you rather keep Arvi or Kane?
I don’t think Skinner’s roster spot is at risk.
Lots of vets take time to settle in on their new team and 23 games is not a ton.
The coach went out of his way to praise Skinner’s play on the Kulak goal last game – the trust might come.
Dermott is holding a roster spot and he isn’t playing. Really how much of a risk is it? The other thing is if Ryan is struggling why not send him down and call up Philp?
Gotta love the fine skinner got for diving, lol. Good lord, that kind of play happens every game, the disciplinary committee always finds ways of making me laugh.
I didn’t know this was a thing….
If I recall, diving and embellishment were two different calls.
Embellishment is when an infraction occurs and the player makes it look worse than it is.
Diving is when there is no infraction and you try to make it look like there was.
This was brought in after the playoffs the year Canucks players were shown on the broadcast faking obvious non interactions. One I remember clearly was a Canuck player grabbing his face as if he’d been high sticked. The replay showed clearly that he hadn’t been touched.
I believe that the next incident is an automatic suspension.
https://x.com/JFreshHockey/status/1863614858257690736
Trade for Lauzon, do it!
We’re all entitled to an opinion, but hard pass. Overpaid 3rd pairing d-man who makes $2 million and is also currently on IR (out 4-6 weeks).
Coach encourages him to join the rush but he’s no Josi and he makes a lot of bad mistakes in coverage when he’s caught puck staring instead of covering his man. Reminds me of an early Ladi Smid who had trouble with back door plays.
Team is playing well. With the D and goalies pairing to play better it gives Bowman a chance to look for a D man to fit in without dealing from a point of Must Need and overpaying.
Henrique and Skinner aren’t producing goals and if they both do , that is a big bonus. Same with Hyman and Arvidson when they return. Kane as well when he returns 100% will be a great add for his toughness. Future is very bright with all those forwards coming back.
Beau Akey has been invited to the World Juniors camp. Can’t imagine he makes the team but nice to see the invite.
Paul Fischer with an invite to the US camp.
TC brass decided go go all-in on age/experience, so Akey’s got a puncher’s chance.
I can’t believe Parekh and Yakimchuk, two offensive RHDs with first round pedigree, did not receive invites.
When the injured players (Kane, Hyman, Arvi) return, and assuming no further injuries, this is a really deep set of forwards. The issue is with the d pairings.
I agree with LT and would like to see Nurse – Kulak together full time for the month of December. The numbers (small sample size alert) are encouraging – let’s see what it is after a few hundred minutes.
Do we need Bowman to go out and get a 3LD to play with Emberson? The club does not have many assets for Bowman to use. Could Stecher or Dermott reliably fill that role? I, for one, would like to see a bigger man in that position.
Lots of road to travel, but the way Bowman talks give me confidence in their assessments. With LT’s numbers today it looks pretty obvious what is needed (another D), and as you said they have a lot of NHL forwards, maybe thin at centre
They will need 3 pairs playing well or well enough these playoffs
Stecher is doing well, Dermott not so much. Dermott is a 3LD that can play RD, the problem is, he doesn’t fill that role for the team. If they could find an upgrade on Dermott, that would fix things. Then Nurse & Kulak could play full time together and they would have a 3LD to play with Emberson or Stecher. Or just play Nurse/ Stecher and Kulak/ Emberson.
then throw in some Nurse/Kulak and Kulak/Nurse for fun.
If only Josh Brown could play with Darnell Nurse.
Impression I’ve gotten so far is that Dermott is a 4LD that could “play” 4RD.
He has shown very little in limited opportunity.
That’s what I meant . Thanks for the clarification 👍.
since we are talking prospects, I’m sure Sam Oreilly will have a fine 3rd line C career. But I prefer pics that swing for the fence. I know Lt and myself and a few other people were hoping for Nikita Artamanov which was a 1st line talent. Who by the way is killing it and ourscoring Demidov. And of course he gets plucked at 50 OV by Carolina. Le-sigh
Assuming that O’Rielly makes it, a 6-1 right-shot 3C is more valuable than a 5-11 left-shot winger. We are currently running a very old Derrick Ryan as 4C because he can win a face off on a regular basis. Don’t get me wrong, scoring wingers are a valuable commodity, but I would still have taken O’Rielly over the Russian who may or may not even come to the NHL.
Wingers are also the easiest position to fill. Drafting consensus with stats liking folks is take the BPA. However that becomes hard to distinguish after the cream of the crop is gone
The league also doesn’t have much player movement, so trading for what you need which is the logic behind BPA is hard. Especially when what teams usually need are the rare postions – ‘right handed’ players and goalies
The way the Oilers drafted for years created holes that they couldn’t fill well. Didn’t draft enough goalies, RHC or RHD. The Leftorium ended up not delivering much for all of those picks spent. Outside of the top 5 picks, draft for need and hope you find the right players
Just draft RHC’s they can usually play either wing, heck maybe even on the blue line or in goal.
I agree in general apart from the comment about limited player movement. I feel there has been a tremendous increase in young talent being moved.
Seems the GMs have less loyalty/patience with top picks and are constantly looking to upgrade in real time.
Things are looking up for the team and have been for a while. Some of the initial season production slumps are now gone and secondary/tertiary scoring has picked up.
The goaltending is settling in and the overall team defence is so much better than the general verbal – all the various models say so. Yes, the Oilers make big mistakes leading to 5-alarm chances against but guess what? ALL teams do that and it seems most at a higher rate of the Oilers – we just don’t pay attention to that as much.
This all bears out in 7-2-1 on their last 10 – with some real injuries testing depth.
Oh, and since starting 0-3, since October 14, the Oilers are a top 5 points percentage team.
Lots of room to improve still!