The stars were out in full force for the Oilers last night, so the game wasn’t in doubt. Some wobble later on made the game less tidy than one would like, but it was an ‘after midnight, we’re gonna let it all hang out’ kind of evening. It was great to see Zach Hyman back in the lineup, even better to see him cash and mind blowing that a goal that was contested over a Hyman presence in the crease was allowed. Music! December mornings that caress you when stepping outside are rare, but this is one of them. Oilers win, McDavid soars, Draisaitl’s giant oar remains magical and on it goes. A good day.
The Athletic article today is about Leon Draisaitl and his massive step forward as a complete player. He is reaching a new outer marker. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VEG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: CBJ, STL, TBAY (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: VEG, FLA, BOS, SJS, OTT (Expected 4-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: UTA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 9-4-0, 18 points in 13 games
- December results: 1-1-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 14-10-2, 30 points in 26 games
Edmonton needs to make hay this month, and the October record (5-5-1) matches December (1-1-0) in terms of points per game. November 2024 (8-4-1) is easily the class of the group, but I believe December has a story to tell. The Saturday night game against the St. Louis Blues should be a blast, with Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway returning to the scene of the (non) crime. I expect it to be a ring-a-ding-dong-dandy.
THE NUMBERS
Zach Hyman’s return was welcome, he was at his HDSC best (4) and cashed a couple. Leon Draisaitl scored twice, McDavid had a dozen (or so) apples, Darnell Nurse is shining like a diamond. If you wish, I can say Calvin Pickard let in one he’d like to have back (I hate that phrase), Connor Brown’s HDSC don’t count (Vasily Podkolzin, too) but that’s too sinister for me. I think the Oilers played well, lost the script a little, then placed the hammer on a drum and found the end of the song. Good game. Fun game for the crowd.
A quick shout out for the third line, a little more offense with Skinner on the unit. The fourth line (with downtown Connor Brown) had a dominant possession game, that was needed. Nurse-Stecher did all the good things, Kulak-Emberson had one of their best games by the numbers.
BROBERG-HOLLOWAY
St. Louis Blues are in the city Saturday night, I’m expecting hearty boos (that is fine and right to do, they’re on the other team now!) and also expect a supreme effort by the Oilers. Let those boys know what they’re missing, giving up a great chance for Stanley had to have been a consideration for them.
I mentioned yesterday we should know more about this team’s needs by end December, and that remains a vague answer even after Zach Hyman’s impressive return. I think Jeff Skinner (1-1-2 last night and 2-2-4 in his last six after starting the season 3-3-6 in his first 20) is waking from a feverish dream, Viktor Arvidsson should be out of his hazmat suit at some point, and Evander Kane is out there somewhere in the ether waiting for Godot. Defense is feeling stronger every day (with horns!) and I believe Stuart Skinner can backstop this team to Stanley.
A reminder, in the last several days, you have told me (via dm or in the comments section) the worry is Evan Bouchard, Stuart Skinner, scoring wingers, speed, the RH second pairing spot, and fourth line RH center. I think Bouchard had a fine night last evening, perhaps there’s some easing of worry there.
Lowdown hits at noon, with plenty of breaking news likely. Jacob Trouba could be traded by the Rangers today, he won’t play tonight. The Oilers are preparing for a suddenly compelling game against the Blues and of course we’ll talk NFL weekend and Juan Soto’s destination. . I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
Kemp wins a neutral zone board battle, wins the race to the puck on the offensive zone side-boards and rips one over the short side shoulder.
One AWFUL goal on the goalie – yikes.
A set play off a center ice faceoff.
Philp wins the faceoff, Wright helps it back to Kanock-Leipert who delays and hits Wright with a bullet of a long stretch pass to split the D for a breakaway and snipe.
2-1 Condors near end of 2nd.
Dineen walks the line and floats one in for the VERY rare PP goal for the Condors – Savoie with the pass back (and Griffith with the secondary).
Summarizing!
Nicholl scored his 11th and added an assist but London pissed away a 3-0 lead and lost 5-3, thus ending their win streak. Nicholl was named 3rd star.
Münzenberger picked up his 3rd goal of the year.
Akey had an assist.
Mazura, Wakely, O’Reilly, Stonehouse, Määttä and Berry (returning from a tri-game absence) went without soup.
That’s a career high 6 points for Munzenburger, and in 12 games.
Look forward to signing this player.
I haven’t really seen him play since the world juniors (and they were cut short due to Covid) but I could foresee a Kesselring type development.
Hamblin is close.
Jarventie is not close.
Pederson moves up to play with Savoie (Chaulk mentioned Savoie needing a leftie center).
Philp plays with Stefan and Wright.
New guy not in lineup.
Rodrigue stars.
Any further info on the current status of Jarventie? The guy has played 2 AHL games and accrued 2 apples. Large, lanky fellow… is he prone to injury?
As per my post, Holty said tonight “not close”.
I don’t know his history prior to effing up his knee but, since he effed up his knee, well, as he’s done is play those two games (after recovering from issues his his other knee that happened during the rehab process).
Watched the YT highlights. Pickard made two saves when we were down 1-0 and one when it was tied 1-1 against shooters in close with (more or less) clean looks. The close in saves a goalie makes in those game states (1-0 and 1-1) are more consequential than the further out saves he doesn’t make when the score is 4-1 or 5-2. My theory.
Agreed the when is really important. But any player that makes weak plays consistently is an issue
Every player makes them, to me it’s how often, and also when. The best players rise to the occasion, and a team should be want those guys
Guessing you’re referring to Skinner, Stu. I think he’s crossed over into the category of “goalie good enough to win a Stanley Cup with, but you’ll rightly question whether he’s a great goalie”. Like Holtby or Murray or Hill or Kuemper or Binnington.
The regular season game to game tribulations won’t reveal much more about him. No need to keep reading the tea leaves. The main thing is he’s capable of the run of goaltending a team needs to get past the finish line. Consistency isn’t the droid to look for. Skinner’s established level of play is in the range.
I wasn’t referring just to Skinner, more in general. I think they should keep Skinner and maybe look for more substantial help. It may not be possible, but a 1B to me is preferable than Pickard who seems to be regarded as a traditional back up. Maybe Pick could carry the net if he had to, I’m not sure
Can you please label these kinds of saves with a confusing nomenclature like ajar and fastened?
Hoping to see Jarventie in the lineup but certainly not expecting it – I think he’s locked in the same room as Arvidsson.
Knees & back injuries are strange beasts. I understand all to well from personal experience, I feel for them both and wish them well in their recoveries.
Not disagreeing but do we even know they are dealing with re-aggravation of prior ailments?
Reports the Rangers have signed Sheshterkin to an 8 year deal.
No AAV yet.
Kyper and Bourne suggesting $11.750 million.
@FriedgeHNIC
Igor Shesterkin 8 x 11.5M with NYR
@FriedgeHNIC
Largest contract for a goalie in NHL history
Great goalie and they obviously had to sign him, but that contract will not age well.
He’s only 28.
Elite goaltenders have been known to maintain until their mid to late 30’s.
With the cap about to take huge leaps, it won’t be all that expensive in 5 years.
This is true. I forget about the cap increases. #Justinflation am I right?
Don’t forget, he’s not an Oiler so this is a good contract.
<end sarcasm>
Elite goaltenders have far more impact on team success than elite forwards or defensemen.
If the top paid forward in the league makes $15 million, $11.5 million is a bargain.
A bargain if Shesterkin played 82 games. 11.5/15 or 63 games, which shesterkin has never reached. I think it’s fine, and should age reasonably well, but not sure it’s a bargain given where the market sits for goalies.
Goaltenders play 60 minutes a game.
An elite defenseman about 30.
The market for goalies just got reset and will only rise as the cap increases.
A goalie “playing 60 minutes” is a lot different than a defenseman or forward playing less than 60 minutes. And the difference is obvious. A goalie playing 60 minutes is not as taxing as the minutes played by a forward or defenseman. Which is why you never see a goalie skate to the bench to take a rest like forwards or defenseman do.
You’re the same guy that said the model to winning multiple cups is the Colorado route, which is have young cheap, norris quality D who play so good you don’t even need to care if your goaltender is Georgiev.
You have also said that you don’t need to spend a lot on a starting goaltender, because you can grab decent quality tenders for cheap, every year and run a 1A and 1B tandem, because you shouldn’t overplay your goaltenders too much anyway.
You have also, many times before, railed against teams like the Oilers who brought in older goalies. I see you added a goalpost though by saying “elite” which means you will just change the definition to be whatever you need it to be when comparing goalies or other team’s situations.
Why do you waste your time by making awful contradictory posts like this? It would be funny if it weren’t so sad.
Yeah go tell John Gibson that
I’d almost be surprised if Fowler is not an Oiler at some point this season. I’m not sure how I feel about it but if he comes half retained and neither Savoie or O’Reily are part of it…….
Was having similar thoughts with the earlier small transaction. Stetcher or Dermott with Akey maybe heading the other way.
Wouldn’t Gudas be a better fit?
More likely the Ducks will retain half and flip Trouba at the deadline.
Or the aggressive playing Verbeek who has cap wants more edge. Very edgy now on RD
Not a bad way to bring the youth along, only a year more as well. Sure would like one of those guys on the Oilers
Gudas won’t play in a Canadian market.
I can’t tell if this is a troll post.
Even at 50% Fowler’s contract is not good. His results have been poor the last couple of years relative to his team and he is old. Pass!
Not a troll post in the least – I think he’s been the player Stuaff has been speculating about for a month.
Unless it’s Dumoulin
Pavel Mintyukov would work
Fowler would certainly be an up grade on Dermott and could slide in nicely beside Emberson.
@Lowetide
Folks on my blog speculating the Ducks might send Fowler (who is back, he played Wednesday) to the Oilers. If that’s the deal, ouch! @PuckIQ
vs elites player card is a tragedy.
https://x.com/Lowetide/status/1865188988736409713
(Click for player card)
Every RHD that has a possibility to be available will be discussed in some sort of capacity.
Discussion doesn’t equal championing the addition.
Fowler would be playing alongside a partner, and on a team that’s far more established then anything the player has been part of since the Getzlaf/Perry days.
Fowler is a LHD and the wheels fell off years ago.
Always thought he was RHD for some reason.
He has 39, 48, and checks notes 42 points the last 3 seasons.
Guess we’re both wrong on the details.
Also -36, -23, -9.
He hasn’t been a plus player since 2017/18
Sure, there are team effects there but he ain’t helping much.
Totally, plus minus means everything especially on a lottery team.
Averaging 42 points a season doesn’t help anyone lol
Heavy minute d on bad teams tend to look really bad.
Jacob the open ice predator is now a Duck and we play them twice in the next 30 days. Boys will need to keep their heads up. The next game is Mar 4th so Kane should be back to deal with the threat. Drai will have to limit his east-west neutral zone passes or someone is going to get crushed.
Can they accrue cap space when Arvidsson is out?
Yes, they are right now. Not a ton as they have 22 players plus Kane but they are currently accruing since Drake got sent down.
Edmonton Oilers
@EdmontonOilers
The #Oilers have acquired forward Jacob Perreault from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for defenceman Noel Hoefenmayer.
From nhl.com
I liked Perrault in his draft year mainly due to his elite shot, seems like he stalled after turning pro. Don’t mind the swap to add another skilled fwd but would’ve preferred they moved on from a different D of the many down there, I liked the Hoef personally.
Condors down to a single left about D.
I wonder if Dermott will be on his way down once Arvy is activated. They will likely want to get back down to 21 on the roster for max accrual. 6D on the roster would be a risk.
https://x.com/pierrevlebrun/status/1865117890464174239?s=61
Trouba to the Ducks
Why would the Ducks make this trade??
Very odd considering their rebuild status and wealth of D prospects.
They now have 4D over the age of 30.
Still not official yet.
But Trouba a Duck? OMG he’s definitely going to need a doctor.
I was thinking the same thing. Rangers gain mega cap space. What do the ducks get?
The art scene in New York will never be the same LOL
Seriously though, keep your head up against the Ducks! Why the pacific why!!?
The Ducks have a pretty good forward group when healthy. Fowler and Gudas are not doing well. Trouba in a feature makes them better for sure defensively
The Oilers had the luxury of loyal fans. I think other teams have to worry more about sucking for too long
Today’s post is brought to you by references to The Band, The Tragically Hip, Doug & the Slugs and the great Eric Clapton. Plus maybe 1 or 2 that I might have missed.
The great Ed Whalen for one.
Gotta love Ed Whalen. As Tor Kamata used to say: “NO–o-o-o chancee, Mistah Whalen”
Which is way better then the ‘Seasons in the Abyss’ by Slayer references from back sometime ago. Nothing against Slayer …..
Chicago feeling stronger every day (with horns!)
I have been fairly adamant in my opinion that Janmark is best suited as a 4the line winger (plus PK, of course) but I have to admit that, 100%, he’s played as a legit 3rd line winger this season and out-performing a contract (that I thought was a bit high on AAV, given the 3 year term).
Atta boy Janitor.
Firm hand shakes
And Skinner scored. Atta boy Jeff.
Excellent . . . great nic!
Solid game last night. Lots of guys playing well, but Nurse continuing to play well is a key to the Oilers. No team can have a weak 2nd pairing, let alone a SC contender.
Count me in the group that wants to see less weak GA, although I don’t have a magic answer.
For me, Bouchard was all-world last night. He was value for his points including a great keep at the offensive blue leading to a goal and he was great defensively.
I haven’t seen or heard a single person mention his defensive play to force an off-side on that dangerous rush when Leon broke his stick but that was an elite play.
That was the elite 2-way performance that breaks records and materially helps drive the team to 15 playoff wins.
The Arvi contract is increasingly looking like a big whiff.
It will be interesting to see what his injury is and if it is related to his back injury from last year.
Darnell Nurse is back to prime Nurse.
My goodness is he playing good hockey.
My belief is he was playing through something last year. Injuries , poor partners or above his ability etc. He’s always been very good steady and reliable and you just don’t forget how to play.
Agree 100%. He also never talks about injuries and never blames injuries. Admirable.
I don’t think he’s been near 100% since he played through that core/hip issue in the 2023 playoffs.
With the odd exception, the Oilers are simply outplaying teams night after night after night. They don’t win every game (see Vegas) but they are consistently outshooting, out-chancing, out-high danger chancing, out offensive zone possession timing, etc. their opponents.
This team is top 5 in the league since mid October and full value for it – and not close to their top game.
This is a very good hockey team.
Points last 10 games:
Toronto 16
Minnesota 15
Washington 15
New Jersey 14
Vegas 13
Edmonton 13
Tampa Bay 13
Boston 13
St. Louis 13
Dallas 12
Calgary 12
Los Angeles 12
Top 9 anyway.
There are a lot of “very good hockey teams”.
Brilliant post! Value added!
Looks like they’re tied for top five over the last 10 games with five other teams. That keeps things in perspective. Actually, fourth because Minny & Washington are tied for second.
And there we have it, this blog’s daily shit-on-Oilers post by HH.
And the Oilers are one of them.
You worry too much. Oilers will be fine.
“Connor Brown’s HDSC don’t count “
Ginger Warren Foegele. But we knew that from last year. Plenty of chances, not enough finish for top 6, low end top 9.
I’m trying to be even handed here and apologies for a long post …
In the Bill James abstract book that came out 20+ years ago, he wrote about Yogi Berra and Joe Garagiola growing up in St. Louis. When they were in their late teens, Yogi wouldn’t sign with his hometown Cardinals because the Cards wouldn’t give Yogi the same bonus they gave Joe G. Yogi and Joe were good friends and had been playing ball together their whole lives. Yogi knew he was a much better player at the time and time proved him right.
I think about this in the context of Broberg and Vinny D. They played a lot of hockey together in the AHL and NHL. Broberg must have known very clearly he was the more talented hockey player than Vinny, and yet the coaches went with Vinny over Bro as the 6D last year. Vinny filled some needs (RH, tough, monstrous size) and was very good on the PK and he earned that shot. This is not a criticism of him. And Broberg struggled to force his way into the lineup. He had a tougher time with Ek, Nurse and Kulak ahead on the depth chart versus an open 3RD spot for Vinny. But Vinny was exposed the year before in the playoffs and then again last year so the coaches sat him in favor of Broberg. There’s no bigger tell than that.
This year, Broberg is over 20 minutes a night, playing well according to the St. Louis press (and the little bit I’ve watched), and looks like a top 4 fixture for a long time (if he can stay healthy). His strong on ice results so far are partly due to luck. He’s 1st on the team for PDO (1.044) and regression will come. Vinny is playing 15 minutes a night and has evidently been scratched a number of times. He’s also been unlucky (PDO .953). He’s a 6/7 D at this time and it’s very unlikely he ever rises above this. With what we know today it certainly looks like Broberg has the much brighter and longer future. Maybe Vinny becomes a mostly reliable 5/6 D. Maybe Broberg becomes a solid 2/3D.
What it comes down to, IMO, is that the Oilers made a short term bet on Vinny over Broberg that may haunt the organization for a long time. Again, I recognize that Vinny played well last year and that Broberg shouldn’t have been entitled to anything. But what does it say about an organization that develops what looks like a talented young top 4 cost controlled D and loses him? Especially one that can skate like the wind and keep up with McD when he’s flying?
This could simply be a case of stuff happens. Organizations sometimes fail to appreciate what a young player can become because of short-sightedness or because the player doesn’t put it together until after he leaves. I don’t know what happened with Toews or Forsling—maybe management didn’t realize what they had or maybe these guys don’t become who they are without the shock of being traded or waived. So maybe the Broberg exit is simply what happens from time to time in talent evaluation in any club. I hope that’s what it is because then it’s nothing systemic.
But I’m afraid it is systemic. Bowman said he was surprised by the dual offer sheet, but to me that sounds like a lack of foresight. Reporting suggests that other orgs besides St. Louis were thinking about a dual offer sheet and in any case don’t smart managers anticipate how things are changing rather than saying “well, if it hasn’t happened before it ain’t happening now”? Maybe Bowman was just covering for the mess the organization made before his arrival. Beyond superstars and elite goalies, who are very hard to come by, is there any asset more important than cost controlled top-6 F / top-4 D? DNB did a recent interview with Jackson who said the organization didn’t have a player development department until very recently.That’s a tell too.
Like all Oilers fans I want nothing more than to see another Cup champion (or two or three!). And like most of us I think this team has a window for a couple of years. At the same time I wonder if in 5 years time we might look back and realize that the Broberg exit falls into the Reinhart bin of major screwups in the McDavid era. LT did a post or Athletic story recently about the org.’s need to change its model for bringing young players along and locking them up at reasonable prices. It’s a great read and it’s a damn shame that it’s taken the org a decade into the 97/29 era to learn a lesson that seems self-evident.
I love this post SO much.
It’s not a post, it’s an essay.
Just goes to show that there is no longer cost control with RFA’s. Offer sheets are going to happen much more frequently. They were once considered to be taboo, but times have changed, and teams need to beware the offer sheet.
For me how Bro was handled remains a failure all around.
It took a long time for the owner to get some clarity on this or better advice than he was getting
Little vetting, Boys on the Bus too involved, not enough experience, pinballing to hiring by rep (deserved or not) or dusting off Hockey Canada/Team Canada guys
Holland did some good things, but was so out of date (no development dept) and touch (the cap was his bugaboo with some real doozies, no Ontario scouts, too slow reacting to things, wouldn’t make player changes needed or worse didn’t think they were needed, or worse than that couldn’t find and make the deals) to me it was net damaging. Such a waste of the rarest thing
Bowman was hooped on the offer sheets, it was far too late to be able sign them at what they were actually worth at that point
Broberg is on the 1st pair at the beginning of December. $4.5 million is awful cheap for a 1st pair defenseman.
Holloway has 8 goals and 16 points in 27 games, tied with Broberg for the best plus/minus on the team with +7. Has played everywhere in the top nine except 1st line centre. Value contract at $2.3 million.
I admit I was skeptical Broberg would be a lock for top-4 deployment this season. Egg on my face. He has looked great. Injuries are the only real concern.
They wouldn’t be having the same success if they had stayed in Edmonton. Broberg wouldn’t be a 1st pair Dman & Holloway would be playing in the bottom six.
That says more about the failures of the Oilers as an organization than it does about Broberg and Holloway.
They are value for St Louis but not Edmonton because of what would have been usage. Bro may have stuck 2RD but Oilers
This may be true but its neither here nor there.
There is only one time where a team has leverage in contract negotiations – its players coming off their ELCs without arbitration rights.
Lets take the established star players out of the mix. For others, its the responsibility of the managers to use that leverage and get these players signed to 1-2 year contracts that are value deals. I’m not saying to embarrass them – if you have Evan Bouchard, $4MM made sense based on the player he was established to be.
Neither of these players had a track record in the NHL – both spend real time in the AHL during their contract year.
I had little doubt that Holloway would provide $2MM or so of value but that doesn’t mean that he should have been offered a $2MM AAV by the Oilers.
It is silly to use leverage to shoot yourself in the head.
It is incompetent after five years and four year not to have a clear understanding of the actual value of these two players. It was not unknowable. This blog was told for an entire effing year.
The Oilers totally misread the actual situation. And once they signed Skinner, they had no leverage.
They were at the poker table and had no clue as to who the chump was.
I agree with most of this, but the Arvi contract was the real mistake. Higher dollar amount and two years. Not to mention significant injury history/risk.
Some folks just can’t understand that a contract has to satisfy the needs/desires of both parties.
Grinding them to dust not only creates resentment but it also severs whatever loyalty a player may have for the organization that drafted them
Good managers asses current and future value potential when making contract offers and pay accordingly.
I think the Broberg/Holloway situation has the potential to be worse than Reinhart. At least the Reinhart catastrophe happened at the beginning of the McDrai era so there was some time to recover and the Oilers had a relatively young roster. Now? The Oilers are one of the oldest teams in the league.
Is there another team in the league that has pissed away so much young talent/assets over the last decade?
Totes magotes. Elevating Vinny over Broberg sent the message the org couldn’t walk back. With pro athletes, it’s almost never about money exclusively. Pride and respect are massive.
There’s a blind spot that occurs in a lot of organizations where the collective is valued so highly, they forget about the importance of investing in the individual as well.
Holland was way too old school with his development of Broberg. You simply can’t treat an 8OV like he’s a comparable talent to a career journeyman. Athletes today are far too savvy and not nearly as inclined to toe the company line as past generations.
Broberg’s draft stock set his career expectations going forward. An old GM like Holland looks at that and thinks, “Ok, now it’s up to you to prove you were worth that high pick and earn it.” The modern athlete looks at it like “I’ve already proven it. Now it’s up to you to develop me properly so I can maximize my career.” Somewhere between those two mindsets is where the Oilers issues reside.
I’m of the belief that Puljujarvi was going to be a bust regardless, but nevertheless, that debacle in conjunction with Broberg speaks to a pattern. Jesse was not a one off for Holland unfortunately. Hopefully they’re putting the resources in place now to address this.
Agree on Jesse. He’s been getting benched in Pgh recently despite putting up decent numbers. Similar to his time in Edm. The one thing I wonder about: how would he have developed without the hip injuries?
This is odd considering Holland went out of his way to draft Broberg his first year as Oilers GM. You’d think Broberg would have gotten a bigger push. But it was Bouchard that got the push, and he wasn’t a Holland draft pick.
By me eye Kenny deferred too much to his HCs who are risk averse by nature. Coaches hate rookie mistakes costing them wins.
As GM & HC, Slats could afford to live with Coffey’s errors. What was he going to do? Fire himself?
Imo the GM needed to press Woodcroft and then Knoblauch harder to create a viable development path for Broberg. As I understand it, Kenny was of the mind that coaches coach and managers manage. It needs to be more of a collaborative approach now for the modern athlete.
Sure. But ultimately Holland was in charge, he was the GM & POHO and shouldn’t be deferring to his coaches. Which makes me wonder who’s really pulling the strings. It’s certainly not the coaches.
I’m old school so there’s a part of me that actually respects Holland’s approach on this. He wasn’t going to micromanage or dictate to his HCs.
His mindset was. I buy the groceries. The HC cooks the meals.
It’s more fair to the Coach cos he can’t get fired and then have regrets for being forced to play players he didn’t want to. But in this instance, it was likely less fair to Broberg because despite his much higher upside, Vinny represented less risk to Woodcroft in the moment.
And Holland fired his head coach (Woodcroft) for the first time in his career. Times they are a changing.
Holland still had his Detroit draft opinions ringing in his ears when he arrived here…Seider was their pick, and he wanted a D too.
Holland wanted to believe what he had been told, when the Wings took Seider at 6th, the next D available was Broberg…both were Euro
s, both could skate, Sieder was different in that he can hit and play a heavy game....Brobergs early career began as a forward, hitting and heavy hockey is still foreign to him…wish him well but I doubt he will have a long career.I’m not sure how you blame Holland for anything to do with Puljujarvi.
By the time Holland came along Jesse was already back in Finland. Holland convinced him to return for another try. After that, Jesse’s usage was in the coach’s hands.
Again I’m of the opinion that Jesse was going to be a bust regardless so I’m not ‘blaming’ Holland per se. But after they brought Jesse back into the fold, his deployment from thereon didn’t speak to a coherent development strategy.
We have to be careful because players like Yakupov and Puljujarvi can create blanket condemnations for a team’s development efforts. In both cases, the player’s physical gifts exceeded their system play aptitudes. It happens.
But you ruin enough thoroughbreds and eventually the finger stops pointing at the breeder and it turns towards the trainer.
In both of these examples..Yakupov and Puljujarvi…I believe playing Bandi and chasing reindeer is a huge red flag. Adjusting to North American hockey is one thing, but added to that a big city culture shock is simply way too much for these kids who come from areas and lifestyle akin to living in the 1950`s.
When drafting from Russia or Finland stick to the big city urban kids.
Jesse is a different story. His hips became a big problem, and I believe if he didn’t have this recurring issue his career would have been much more successful.
Agreed. I think his hips really hampered him in NHL style hockey which requires stops and starts and straight line play for most
That being said his natural game still much more suits the big ice. I don’t think he was ever reaching the type of game you can see glimpses of that would have made him a strong top 6 winger. It looks like there isn’t enough space for him, he still runs into guys and gets in their way. I see him back in Europe next contract and he’ll probably do well
Great post.
Couldn’t have said it better.
Very good post. I’m surprised at all the downvotes. Do some really believe the organization didn’t drop the ball?
Bro was always the goods with the one risk around self-preservation. I’m sure that was a big part of why he spent so much time in the AHL, the org wanted him to learn to protect himself. Wish that would have translated to high levels of trust and loyalty but OBC school of mgmt, $4M, and human nature happened.
As far as being the goods, pretty sure Ferraro called out in WJCs that he was the only player on team Sweden other teams were worried about and game planned around (then he went and got hurt)…a defenceman.
Agreed 100%
I always thought of Des as a great 7D
but as much as Bro is a great skater he was just not ready until he was ready.
And what do I mean? for a while he was not winning puck battles along the boards
and don cherry will tell ya, you gotta win those because boy if you don’t bad things happen
the other wrinkle to this story is the slow start
they found a formula that worked and stuck with it
and no one got hurt
in the meantime bro figured it out and got frustrated
good on Holland for developing him properly but you can’t treat talent like that these days
Holland should have traded Bro, for a RD prospect or established player, after he acquired Ekholm, knew he wouldn’t trade Kulak, and was stuck with Nurse. And knowing Bro didn’t really want to play RD. The only option was to make him wait a couple of years until his spot opened up, and he was too close to want to do that. They had options and chose the worst path losing leverage along the way
So great to see Nurse shine as an impact player.
The upside makes it all worth it.
Coffey is in fact a horse whisperer
If they’re going to play Kulak at 2RD, then a 4C and 3LD.
If Kulak is ultimately going to be 3LD, then spend everything you can at getting the best 2RD possible.
Kulak could ultimately be the best available 2RD. So, ultimately all they need is a solid 3LD.
One way, or another, I’m gonna get ya, I’m gonna get-ya -get-ya-get-ya.
Keep hoping Winnipeg falls flat on their face and Pionk becomes available.
Those offer sheets should be a reminder to not spend money until you have your own players locked up
Yes, be held hostage by your diva RFA’s.
The divas got paid, so call them what you want, I’m pretty sure they could care less.
Stay in Edmonton for less money and less mins or fast track your career and be set for life. Not really a tough decision for most human beings.
What says they’d have less minutes?
Broberg was pegged for 2nd pairing, PK time.
Holloway could be in the Podkolzin spot.
Why are their careers fast tracked now? Because of money? Imagine they go into next summer as champs, their next contracts would be even larger and more fast track.
This game can be played all day, Broberg wanted out for multiple seasons, Holloway jumped at the money with his one good arm thinking there was no way the Oilers wouldn’t match, then baaaam Podkolzin.
Divas and their diva fans lol
Man, you sure have a hate on for these two.
I don’t blame the players for taking the offers. They have every right to decide their own fate under the collective bargaining agreement.
I blame management, specifically Jackson, for totally screwing up the file.
Lead Farmer is correct. Management should have had a plan to get those 2 signed. Before they spent all their cap space on aging vets that are past their prime.
Seems highly unlikely to me that the Oilers didn’t have a plan to get them signed.
As OP has posted many times, the Oilers made offers that they felt were based on comparables for RFAs. If anything, I could blame the Oilers for undervaluing the 2 players, but not for not having a plan.
I don’t have a hate on for them, they’re not Oilers couldn’t care less.
Broberg wanted out for multiple seasons, Holloway jumped at the cash.
Broberg was given everything but a roster spot, he had 3 well playing vets ahead of him in his position. Stanley cup pursuing teams are not moving out their well playing vets, nor are they gifting a player his spot. This isn’t the decade of darkness where every draft pick is guaranteed 100 games no matter what.
Broberg couldn’t get multiple coaches to play him over the vets, Knob is a fantastic coach.
Broberg didn’t sign a cost controlled contract, he signed one that guaranteed he was leaving town. Him and the agent knew the Oilers weren’t going to be able to give him anything near that amount and flesh out a cup or bust roster. Holland had years to sign him, takes two to tango and no one danced.
Holloway could be playing top 6 in Edmonton with the best 2 centers in the league, he took a larger short term pay day. He also decided to not sign with Edmonton before his offer sheet, Edmonton can’t force these players to negotiate. They have to be willing, and they were both willing to leave.
They’re gone, they’re not Oilers. The Oilers have replaced them, the Oilers definitely could use a player like Broberg but he simply did not want to sign and Kulak has taken even more strides forward.
The Oilers do not miss Holloway in any way shape or form. Podkolzin is playing great, their top line is great, their second line is great, their 3rd line is formidable and coming on.
What well playing RFA’s haven’t ended up being paid big in Edmonton? Name them.
Nurse is constantly complained about due to his pay day. Leon is rich, Nuge is rich, Bouchard is on the cusp of being rich, McDavid is rich. Hyman is paid, Kane is paid, Ekholm is paid, Kulak is value, Henrique took less. Just because Broberg and Holloway didn’t get overpaid early isn’t a sign the Oilers management is awful to RFA’s. Their core is extremely well paid with the most important pieces once being or currently are RFA’s themselves.
I blame Holland and Woodcroft more – on Broberg.
I don’t blame anyone on Holloway – unlike Borberg, I think his development deployment was just fine and I think he would have signed a reasonable second contract if Armstrong didn’t eff this up (along with Darren Farris).
Broberg gets a PP opp with the Blues he’d likely never get here with Bouchard. Points production is where the big money is for elite D.
Both Broberg and Holloway will be part of a young leadership core with the Blues. In Edmonton, they’d always be the little brothers to the established core.
Lots of defenders are paid big bucks having nothing to do with PP points.
They could of played themselves into the core.
Bouchard is less then 2 years older then either of them, Podkolzin doesn’t seem to be having any problems fitting in.
Being little brothers to the the best 2 players in the world, oh the humanity.
So you’d personally turn down the guaranteed millions they were offered? Riiiiiiight.
And Broberg & Holloway are being paid proportionately for their value in St.Louis , which they weren’t going to get in Edmonton, just being the little brothers. Makes sense.
No worries they’ve got Setcher, Podz & Kapanen is hapanen.
Disagree completely.
It is very common place for RFAs to not sign until well in to the summer, often in to September.
The Oilers had left room in the budget for what the reasonable expectation of AAV was for these two.
desperately wrong…Oiler management totally misread the market, both the value side and the demand side.
The offer sheet market isn’t something that should drive contract negotiations with RFAs coming off their ELCs.
What Broberg signed for is not even close to a reasonable market price – he signed for more than Thomas Harley (who signed after him, an indisputable indication that Broberg’s contract was ignored as a comparable).
Harley signed for $4 million…a fair offer,
You wanted Broberg to sign for essentially league minimum.
Nill could have ground Harley down to dust but he didn’t because he recognizes the upside of the player.
That’s what good managers do.
Harley signed a fair offer and the point, which is clear (if you aren’t, well, you, is that he was such a more established player than Broberg and signed for much less – it shows the massive over-pay on Broberg given his contract was ignored.
That was a contract comparable to Evan Bouchard’s 2-year bridge for an established impact player with upside.
Broberg played 49 AHL games last season – a non-comparable situation.
Emily Kaplan says Detroit, Ottawa, Columbus and Buffalo have all contacted New York in regards to Trouba . Would he waive to go to any of those ?
Sounds like he only wants to play in NY.
But for whatever reason they don’t seem to want him.
Not a good situation.
Seravelli was saying Brooks out of New York is saying the Rangers are trying to pry Tkachuk out of Ottawa. Wow. So Trouba plus Lavrenniere plus Kakko plus what lol
The sticking point is that his wife is a doctor, so what works for her is a big part of any decision
He’s going to need a doctor.
Lol
He doesn’t have a full no move anymore . And someone mentioned they may just put him on waivers
That was a fun game to watch last night. Lots of offense.
Thought the Oil looked great after the 1st 10 minutes , and nice to see Hyman pop 2. He seriously could have had 3-4.
Brown , besides the pk is having a tough go in the O zone as is Ryan and Perry.
Skinner seems to be picking up steam. He looked really good last night.
Couple weird goals on Pickard but he made some nice saves as well.
Good win, let’s hope they carry this into tom night and beat St Louis.
Hope the fans give both Broberg and Holloway a nice welcome and don’t boo them.
Both are playing very well. Wish they were still here.
Boo them with every breathe.
Sounds like Trouba could be on the move , he will not dress tonight against Pitt. If they are sitting him for that reason I wonder where he ends up? Anyone hear anything on this ?
sounds like Columbus as per Elliotte
That would be good for CBJ at this stage of their team’s growth.
The team wobble came from sitting back on the lead. Columbus is a well drilled team. They’ll chug along and take the goals you give them.
Anyone else think that Mrs. McDavid wanted to see if your papers are in order?
It’s doubtful Bowman does anything with the goalies based on interviews. But if an upgrade were to present you have to do it, if it’s a reasonable cost and the cap works, it’s too important to not. Ask the Avs
The soft GA or two every game aren’t ok to me. The team is really suppressing shots, and we still see sub .900 SV%. We talked back in the day when goalies were really needed about certain coaches giving their goalies a bump up because of suppressing chances against, beware of goalies coming from teams like that, it wasn’t as much them as the system they played in
We now have the opposite of that. Finally becoming a pretty tight team defensively, no goalie bump. Every goalie lets in a weak one, but the better ones don’t do it often. Stu’s one GA against Vegas (some see it as weak, some not) cost them points in a tight race, because that was the only goal scored. Getting to OT meant 1 or 2 points. Only 16 SA. It’s not just me, Gregor said the same. The Oilers couldn’t score, but Vegas couldn’t either, other than the 1 that I think shouldn’t have gone in
It matters for a team at the stage the Oilers are at, can’t waste any points. You should win most games where you handily win the shot share. They are in the second wildcard and the Dys have two games in hand. The Kings and Vegans are winning at the same pace over the last 10
I haven’t looked, are there any $2.6M (or less) goalies who are clear upgrades on Skinner? I’m assuming no, but one never knows.
I would upgrade Pickard. Skinner can’t be clearly upgraded it seems, especially at his cap hit. Stu may be rock solid, or he might not be, this is the issue with him up to date. And as Woodley has said Stu struggles with rush plays, as in the Vegas GA
Pickard has played well, but I don’t get the impression that the coaches really trust him that much. I am also not convinced that if for some reason Pickard had to take the net he could as the starter, and keep his play up
A better insurance policy if possible so to speak
I will add about rush chances against that the coach said Bouch played the 2 on 1 correctly. The job is to stop the pass across and he did, well out from the net. Stu didn’t get hung out with the laundry on that one
No, but I would try to upgrade Picks with Blackwood. Skinner/Blackwood, A/B option looks like a good hedged gamble to me.
I always view it as the goalie has to give the team a chance to win. If there is 0, 1 or even 2 goals by the team, no matter how good the goalie played, they are probably losing.
There are very few goalies that are a guaranteed upgrade on the Oilers tandem. You can point out the worst goalies in the league easily, the hard part is knowing whether anyone from 10-20
is going to be consistently better than them or available. We’ve seen it time and time again for trying to upgrade the goalie situation. It’s usually better to go with the devil you know versus the devil you don’t.
I agree in the greater sense, but not when the goalies give up easy goals almost every game. Vegas could only score one goal, and they won, because their goalie didn’t give up a goal he shouldn’t have
Some don’t agree on that goal against, but for me given the pass was attempted at the top of the circle, there is no reason Stu couldn’t have been set for the weak lob at the net, which I think surprised Barbashev that it went in, based on his reaction
It’s not doomsday, but if you always want to upgrade your skaters, you should want to with goalies even more
Just think how the goaltending would look if the defense hadn’t tightened up. I think what you see is what you get. Stu is the starter Calvin is the backup. If there’s a decidedly better backup available for the same cost as Picks than go for it as long as the cost isn’t astronomical. Their philosophy seems to be improved defensive play is the way forward and of course they need to get that shooting % way higher.
An upgrade on Pickard with the likes of a Blackwood, sure (although that takes away apx $1.5MM of cap that can be used elsewhere) but I can’t see an upgrade on Skinner that makes sense – Skinner at $2.6MM X2 is huge value.
Great game by Hyman. The look on his face after his second snipe was priceless.
Strange goals against, and as is often the case, usually starts with a blown assignment in the d-zone.
Pickard has this weird blocker flick move where his hand ends up backwards and stick out wide as he is trying to guide the puck to the corner. It was common way back when and everyone’s “go to” move in street hockey, but isn’t great in the modern NHL. It cost him on the second bouncing puck.
Anyhow, fun game that felt like it could slip away and then the boys dug in. Haven’t seen that too much in the third.
Every NHL goalie tries to direct the puck into the corner from his blocker. In fact, 10 yr. goalies are taught to do this
@FriedgeHNIC
Okay, Jacob Trouba:
Hearing Rangers do have several options, but Trouba can block with his partial no-trade. Rangers have indicated they will waive him if he does not accept one. One team is believed to be Columbus.
This is absolute hardball, but there is a precedent. In November 2005, Todd Marchant refused to waive his no-trade from Columbus to Anaheim as part of the Sergei Fedorov deal. So the Blue Jackets waived him, and the Ducks made the claim to “complete” the transaction.
We will see what the day brings
I can’t imagine picking up Trouba for “free”
Perhaps the Rangers will attach an asset in order to facilitate it in the same fashion as the Marchant deal.
This is interesting stuff. Thanks for sharing. My how the mighty have fallen.
What? HH keeps us informed about what’s going on in the league. Not just all Oilers stuff. And he’s an Oilers fan or he wouldn’t be here.
Prospectison!
A nontet of NAmateurs enumerate the docket.
Wakely’s pair of goals yesternight were #100 and #101 for his OHL career. The opportunity to add more presents itself tonight.
London’s winning streak will hit 20 should they win tonight. O’Reilly, after going five games pointless, has rung up 6+4 his past six.
Mazura hasn’t scored since before Thanksgiving–Canadian, that is–but continues to pile up the assists with 13 in 15 GP.
St. Lawrence (Mazura) @ 5 p.m.
Vermont (Münzenberger, Määttä) @ 5 p.m.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5 p.m.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Ottawa (Stonehouse) @ 5 p.m.
All times are the same time and are also Jaffray time.
Thanks Tarkus – always appreciate the Prospectison. Nice to hear O’Reilly has strung some games together
If I’m not mistaken, I believe O’Reilly’s recent resurgence is coincident with him returning to centre from the wing.
Let’s hope that Skinner truly is Ahead by a Century
You’re right, the offer sheets weren’t a crime, but management left the back door open and it resulted in losing some items for next to nothing
Also, I cant read “I expect it to be a ring-a-ding-dong-dandy” without adding “in the meantime, and in between time – thats it, another edition of Lowetide’s hockey blog”
Watched the OT period between the Flames & Blues. Broberg seems to be taking a prominent role in the 3vs3. The goal by the Blues shouldn’t have counted, Vladar’s pad was clearly pushed in. But of course, they come up with some new wrinkle to allow it.