On a night when the Edmonton Oilers posted another statement game (they’ve been coming fast and furious since the 0-1 Vegas), I was heartened by the universal concern over Evan Bouchard’s injury status after a cowardly hit by Ryan Hartman in St. Paul. Sometimes I wonder if some fans know the extreme value of Bouchard. The reaction online last night told me the answer. Now, we all hope for good news today on Bouchard. He is a pivotal player on this Oilers team.
As for the rest of the game, music! Oh my goodness what a game. They should have handed out hardware to Leon Draisaitl after 60 minutes. Why wait until summer? And did you see Ty Emberson with the hammer fists? What about that passing brilliance displayed by Vasily Podkolzin? Honestly, it was an exceptional game by a team that is absolutely building on its own recent past. As with all things hockey, the defense has been key. Darnell Nurse is playing the best hockey of his career in my opinion. More Music! What a night in St. Paul, of all places. I think Leon thought he was in Nashville.
The Athletic article today is about Stuart Skinner. There’s good information in there, including trends that involve Skinner, shots and goals possession, and what may come. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VEG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: CBJ, STL, TBAY (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: VEG, FLA, BOS, SJS, OTT (Expected 4-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: UTA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 9-4-0, 18 points in 13 games
- December results: 4-1-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 17-10-2, 36 points in 29 games
The Oilers are on one of their patented heaters now (4-0-0) and when they get on one of these, man, it’s like dropping the needle on Peter Gabriel-Peter Gabriel for the first time. There’s a joke in that sentence, I wonder how many of you will chuckle. Edmonton is on a 102-point pace as of today.
THE NUMBERS
The Oilers were fantastic last night, three of the four lines cashing and that third trio delivered eight HDSC between them according to NST. It was a stellar effort, and once again the feel of the game was controlled excellence involving puck possession and a sturdy spine. If one cable snapped, there was a backup already in place. I love this kind of game. It’s more Bruins than Oilers really, but the advantage the Bruins always had over the Oilers (with exceptions, like the 1980’s Oilers and that delightful 2008-09 bunch) is the number of high-quality blue playing peak seasons. I think the Oilers have four for sure, and Stecher is playing like another. I don’t know how long Emberson can be regarded as ‘up and coming’ either, he seems to be a quick study and is absolutely a game rooster.
There’s something happening here. The Oilers have the best player on planet earth, the best big bad center on the second line whose skill set suggests he’s been touched by God. The presence of Ekholm on the first pair and Nurse on the second means battles won and smart plays. Evan Bouchard is a key figure on this team, because he makes so much good happen for Edmonton. Stuart Skinner is coming along, and there are support players who are pushing for more time. Glad to see Zach Hyman rhymin’ again, Nuge’s body allowing him to put that giant brain to use, and Connor Brown finally cashing (he’s better than his Edmonton boxcars, I swear).
A final note on Brett Kulak. You know, he’s been here all along. The coaching staff is using him in a unique platoon role, and should be given credit. More credit belongs to the player. Left side, right side, Nurse one minute, Emberson the other. Absolute brilliance. I don’t know that Philip Broberg could be doing any better than Kulak in this role and that’s a fact.
A busy Friday on the Lowdown, we start at noon on Sports 1440. Steve Lansky will join us from Inside the Truck podcast, and we’ll talk about the dominant Oilers game, plus the job of a producer when the broadcast is running in error on specific and important facts. Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff will chime in with his take on the current play of the Oilers and I’ll ask him specifically about the play of Podkolzin, Stecher and Emberson. Declan Krueger will have Declanations and your comments, as always, will drive the show. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
Being that Armstrong is a superior G.M could he possibly be doing a pump and dump on not only Broberg but the sharpshooter Hollywood.
Summarizing!
For the first time ever, I’m doing a preemptive summary. Barry’s game isn’t over yet but I feel confident he won’t get soup. Now watch him score a third-period hat trick to spite me!
Anywho…
Määttä and Copponi each had a goal and an assist.
O’Reilly o’registered two assists.
Nicholl and Münzenberger (into an EN) tallied.
Lachance, Wakely, and Stonehouse each had a helper.
Fischer did not earn soup.
Akey was camping and likely celebrating his appointment to the WJHC roster.
Epilogue: I was right to be confident in Berry’s soup denial. He now has but a goal to show in 23 GP.
To be fair, Muskegon doesn’t piss a drop offensively–call it the Vermont Syndrome. Muskegon’s leading scorer has 21 points in 25 GP.
No response after cheap shot on Bouchard.
Easy decision to call up Josh Brown. I’m loving Emberson, Poddy, and bringing in a 24 year old Regula.
But having a heavyweight around is also a good idea.
Most important thing is arriving in the post season healthy. Oilers have so much talent now, they can afford to marble in some beef.
The Oilers will not win if they are unable to defend themselves. Functional toughness. They have some.
In my opinion, the reason they came so close but missed is because the wear and tear on Connor, Leon, kept them from running at 100% . Bringing in another skilled winger was important, but not as important as bringing these guys into the finals uninjured.
This is why I am all for keeping Evander Kane away from the NHL until as close as possible to the playoffs. Add Kane to game 7 and Oilers probably win the cup.
Kane is the Jagr level type player who can step into any game of hockey and play effectively. Superstar level talent, is that.
O’Reilly is a playmaking machine! Another goal for London. They’ve broken through Windsor now and have them on the run.
Windsor is a tough team. They’re all huge, fast, and angry. Then there’s little Abraham…
Nicholl scores a beauty from Sim. A slight reprieve of hockey play during this fight on ice.
Video evidence thereof:
https://x.com/LondonKnights/status/1867753224633298998
I don’t actually have an opinion on Kemp as I just haven’t seen him play enough. Buts it’s obvious the Oilers have no use for him. Seems like another case of bad asset management. Why develop him for a few years then just let him walk? Makes no sense to me.
The quality of competition discussion from yesterday made me curious if the numbers are more intuitive when looking at team results rather than player results.
Last season’s Oilers, for example, should have had a better points percentage against the bottom third teams than against the top third teams. Not just the Oilers, it should have been the case for any other team.
That is, it should have been tougher getting two points when playing the #1 team from last season (NYR) than when playing the last place team (SJS).
At the team level, the Quality of Competition should matter. That’s the hypothesis.
To test it, I broke out VSCode with Copilot and downloaded the schedule and results from last year from hockey reference:
https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2024_games.html
And I split the teams up into three tiers based on their overall points percentage for the season. (Oilers were a Tier 1 team.)
Then I calculated the points percentage of each team when playing against opponents in each tier.
Here’s what I got for the Oilers:
Overall, 82 GP, 104 Pts, .634 Pts %
Tier 1, 23 GP, 19 Pts, .413 Pts %
Tier 2, 28 GP, 35 Pts, .625 Pts %
Tier 3, 31 GP, 50 Pts, .806 Pts %
The numbers make sense. The Oilers’ results got worse as their competition got better.
How about the rest of the League?
Well, 29 of 32 teams did worse than their overall points percentage when playing against Tier 1 teams.
And 31 of 32 teams did better than their overall points percentage when playing against Tier 3 teams.
Quality of Competition does seem to affect results for teams.
But, of course, any oddsmaker or bettor could have told you that.
Why, then, don’t we see Quality of Competition playing out the same way in PuckIQ’s player data?
I mean, it has to be harder winning the GF-GA battle playing against elite players than it is playing against scrubs, right?
I think so. Then why didn’t it work out that way for PuckIQ?
Pretty sure I know, but this is a long post already.
Great post!
WRT players like Connor or Leon producing more against which tier, I would add that scoring off the rush is their trademark.
Now, grintensity or middle lines are not even trying to score against them ( for the most part) they are out there to prevent getting scored on.
The elite lines are trying to score so do open themselves up to getting plunked off the rush. No shutdown lines in the elite for the most part.
Nice post!
I had similar thoughts on how teams perform vs playoff teams in the past. Gmoney wrote a blog post about our discussion (here and here).
As an alternative to PuckIQ’s tiers of competition, I would be curious to see how a given player’s stats differ vs playoff and non playoff teams. I had chatted with Woodguy about providing this data for the PuckIQ website this past summer. They’re apparently working on it.
The premise would be to determine if players that are seemingly playoff scoring duds like Foegele, pad their scoring stats during the regular season against non-playoff teams.
PickIQ doesn’t correct for quality of team, though they do have Wowy data.
RAPM is a measure that tries to adjust for both, but it’s behind a paywall at EvolvingHockey.
Who you play against matters, absolutely. But I would argue that who you play with matters even more, and here’s why:
Coaching staff have direct control over putting together lines, while matchups against opponents often fluctuate due to game flow, special teams, and line changes. For a given player, the amount of time spent vs elites while still important is relatively narrow gap between the most and least on a team.
For example, if a coach staples Podkolzin to Draisaitl, Podkolzin will always benefit from playing with one of the best players in the world. His opponents, however, will vary considerably throughout a game. This means Podkolzin’s underlying metrics could stay consistently strong due to Draisaitl’s offensive brilliance, regardless of whether he’s facing elite comp or depth players.
The inherent randomness of matchups means that linemate quality often carries more predictive weight over the long run.
I was looking at the PuckIQ methodology today.
https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html?m=1
This part is interesting:
Given that it’s based on last year’s data, that could create issues. Like Podkolzin would qualify as gritensity last year, so anyone playing against Draisaitl and Podz this season, by definition are not facing elite comp, only middle comp.
Podz and Draisaitl have 200 minutes together with a 60% goal share. That’s some difficult middle tier comp!
I suppose that happens with some categorical arrangement cutoffs.
Also with using the rel cuts for >40% DFF or Corsi, it would punish good players on good teams. Never mind that there’s probably some multicollinearity in using both DFF and Corsi cuts to define tiers.
Also, a note the elite comp ignores defensemen. So if you’re playing against grittensity line of the Oilers, it will be quite a different experience if Ekholm and Bouchard are on the ice with them than if it was Desharnais and Kulak.
“And for us stat nerds out there, the line possesses a 64.4% Corsi, a 70.2% control of the shot share, a 69.2% control of expected goals and a 64.3% control of on-ice scoring chances.”
From an NHL.com article last season but that same “gritensity” 3rd line that outscored by 65%-35% has recently been re-united.
Not all gritensity lines or players are the same.
Some can take on tough competition and thrive.
The major premise is very flawed.
HH; You are probably busy however, could you please give us your take on last night’s Oilers v Minnesota game?
Was it due to the Wild being fairly banged up?
Was it due to the Oilers being a superior veteran Finals experienced team?
Thank you reading this.
Havent posted in a while but signed in now so might as well post another. Wondering what the smart folks (Tarkus, OP, not HH, others) think about Shane Lachance. Big body and numbers are trending postively so hopeful this guy might be a prospect.
I’ve heard someone (LT?) say Lachance’s boots need work.
Otherwise, my biggest concern is signability. As in, can be enticed to play in western Canada? If the Oilers come a-callin’ after the season with a contract and he opts to stay at BU, that’d be a tell.
If he makes it, he would be Hyman’s net-front heir.
Connor and Drai are a hokey paradox. Connor so fast that he does the impossible and Drai some how slows the game down to make things look easy. Devils lettuce nailed the Jagr/ Forsberg comparison for Drai… maybe add a touch of Koucharov and P Kane to that mix. Thanks LT for the daily reminders that we are living in privleged times as Oilers fans!
If Kane had the body of a Semi Truck, perhaps!
I’d say Forsberg/Lindros/Sundin.
Pat Kane is over 1200 games into his career, he didn’t need to be a semi truck body in his case. I was thinking of guys that would hang on to the puck without getting hit and then make plays that no one else seemed to be able to do (all the while thinking someone should hit him already). Sundin is another in that mold for sure. Lindros was a different beast entirely, unfortunately his body couldn’t hold up.
Oh absolutely. I love Kane (Knights fan being obvious…). I just meant I find they are very different player wise, but do have similar strengths despite their differences. I 100% get what you’re saying, and it makes sense.
Wahlstrom on waivers.
This is not the waiver pick up your looking for… you may carry on your business… move along
Thank goodness we didn’t take him. He was highly regarded, and some wanted him.
There were so many off-the-board picks (Kotkaniemi, Hayton, Kravtsov) that we were guaranteed one of Bouchard, Wahlstrom, and Dobson.
Thank goodness we chose the right one. (Dobson would have been solid too, but Wahlstrom….woof…)
Wahlstrom on waivers!! Don’t tell Bouch
So can Regula practice with the team and still retain his not activated status ?
Yes, players on IR can practice with the team.
I thankfully got invited to the Knights Spitfires game tonight. It should be an exciting game! Looking forward to seeing Nicholl and O’Reilly.
Who moves to PP1?
Nurse or Ekholm?
Good question.
My first thought was presumably Ekholm, but Nurse is so damn mobile and that has value as the only D back there.
It’s been a few year, but the PP also had good results with Nurse subbing in IIRC.
Or both.
For me, 100% Nurse – he’s earned it and he’s done it before and he can handle more minutes than he’s playing. Best not to ask more of Ek, in my opinion.
Josh Brown recalled, Original Pouzar called it! “Sigh”
Edmonton Oilers
@EdmontonOilers
The #Oilers have recalled defenceman Josh Brown from the @Condors
.
Bummer… I was allowing myself a sliver of hope that maybe, just maybe, it would finally be Kemp’s time. I knew better.
I no longer let myself get my hopes up on that.
Beau Akey has officially made team Canada. Music!!
Came here for this. Turns out after all these years that Beau actually does know…(Canadian U-20) hockey.
Recognition of a great bounceback season. Hope he’s pumped.
Just saw that and I’m very enthused.
Adds an extra layer of attachment to Team Canada for me.
Recent draft picks on the team have played depth roles (Holloway, Lavoie) – maybe Akeg can work his way up the depth chart too.
Im sure they find his mobility intoxicating. Not many skate like him at that level.
Based on my reading I’d also describe Vinni as a very good bet and Fischer as a decent to solid bet for their respective squads.
If my memory serves (that period between Christmas and the gold medal game is usually a haze of eggnog, cookies and board games), Holloway actually played 1LW his year. He was also nursing an injury so was basically ineffective as an offensive threat but he was outskating about 90% of his peers.
Is that true on Holloway? I specifically remember him outside of the top lines… no?
This will be the first time Akey has represented Team Canada at any level.
When was the last time an Oilers pick from outside Round 1 made Team Canada?
Five years ago–Lavoie and Rodrigue.
.
I’ve been posting about the Condors maybe holding Brown (or, in a shocker, Kemp) out of tonight’s game but, alas, they don’t play to tomorrow so we probably won’t get an indication on potential call-up today.
As an aside, seriously, the Condors play at 2 mountain tomorrow – to they coordinate so that the game conflict with Oilers games?
Wouldn’t it be Dermott most likely? Especially if Emberson is slated with Ekholm, leaving the 3LD spot open?
Unfortunately, Minny claimed Dermott.
Ah, oops. Haven’t looked at any news yet today aside from a couple of comments here. That’s too bad.
Coach says Bouch’s injury is nothing major and he’s 50/50 to play tomorrow.
I’m just going to trust this is a very different “50/50 to play the next day” than it was with Arvidsson.
Bouchard is a gamer he’ll want the Vegas match. Do we maybe see Bouchard in a limited role maybe on the PP. I hated the gimmicky 11-7 that Woody deployed on a nightly basis but like I’ve mentioned before there’s a time and place for the 11-7 and this might be it.
Look at Robbie Jarventie injury, very cloak and dagger with any news on players, its silly!
Injury info on the Condors is WAY harder to get than the big club. With that said, Chaulk did give us a detailed update on Jarventie this past week – not even on the ice yet.
What’s his injury, OP?
Chaulk never actually said exactly what it is but I presume its one of his knees. Chaulk mentioned that he didnt’ feel great going in to the second game (he played back to backs) but didn’t tell anyone about that and played through. He’s seeing specialists and what not – not even on the ice yet, hasn’t skated – won’t be back this calendar year.
WE WANT KEMP! WE WANT KEMP! WE WANT KEMP!
You will have 0% WAR Josh Brown and be happy about it.
Yes, we do want Kemp though
The organization does not know who that is.
Will be interesting to see which of Brown or Kemp are held out of tonight’s game – assuredly, but disappointingly, Brown.
His ship sailed 2-GM’s ago.
Rishaug notes that Emberson is paired with Ekholm today – that was kind of my suggestion if there is no Bouch. Use Nurse/Kulak as the 1LD, have Ekholm/Emberson as the 2nd pairing and rely heavily on those two.
Not sure if it would be Regula (still on IR) or Brown (or Kemp, ya right) who plays with Stecher.
I wonder how many RS D have played much LD, outside of Regula in juniors. I find it so Oilers that they have swung the pendulum so hard to possibly playing a rightie rightie pair, not the most common thing
I guess Brown plays some LD in the A
Bouch not on the ice today, the shocking claim of Dermott and I don’t know if Regula is ready to play – he hasn’t been activated this season and Stauff was talking about a conditioning stint.
My hope is that Bouch can play but we may see Josh Brown tomorrow – I hope its Phil Kemp but that’s a fantasy as the org doesn’t know about him/
Condors are out east in Toronto – long travel.
Will be interesting to see which d-man (if any) is held out of tonight’s game.
Apparently the Wild have claimed Dermott. A bit surprising??
WOW!!! That is a surprising development. They must think they need to bolster their defense after last night’s shellacking.
They looking for some insider knowledge on the Oilers’ game plans and coaching 😉
Thank you Bouchard for sending that fella into hand surgery, no more Dermott is a good thing.
Apparently Middleton’s injury last night (to his hand), resulted in him being placed on injured-reserve (possibly long term).
From Michael Russo on the Athletic:
According to league sources, Middleton broke a finger in his right hand on his first shift against the Oilers when he was struck by Evan Bouchard’s wrist shot. He was expected to undergo surgery Friday and also being assessed for another potential injury to his hand.
The Wild placed Middleton on long-term injury reserve, which means he has to miss at least 10 games and 24 days.
Middleton is actually leading the league in plus/minus at +22.
Did anyone see Middleton’s “top titty 2X4” quip in an after-game on-ice interview broadcasted to the whole arena? He seems like a gooder. From Wainwright, too. Get well soon.
The only way it could be closer to a Nashville game would be for Leon to go pour sugar in the fans’ gastanks in the parking lot.
I remember reading somewhere a comparison between Leon and Peter Forsberg. Both loved the contact, used their body well to protect pucks, looked more dominant when the physical play got tougher.
I have quite a few buddies who are Leafs fans who call Leon Connor’s caddie. I was keeping them well appraised of the performance last night.
Canucks may be looking to move on from Vincent Desharnais. Wow.
This is not surprising. Des at 1 million as a 6-7 dman was good value. Des at 2 million not so much.
YMMV. D play a lot of the game, so they have to be good at 5v5. It’s one thing to hide a forward for a few attributes like Ryan, another with a D
Des is an awesome guy, but he’s a quite limited player. To me it’s why they claimed Regula, he is also big but can skate, defend, and also move the puck under pressure from all accounts
If they can’t contribute at 5v5 enough I don’t see the point no matter the salary. Dermott is in the same boat, he’s not good enough even as depth for a contending team because he gets owned if you have to use him. There are a lot of low cap players these days, have to find the ones that you can use and come out ok if you have to
I don’t think he’s physical enough for Tocchet liking. Once your in Tocchet doghouse your screwed just ask Podkolzin.
With Hronek on IR long term, they’ve been forced to play Tyler Myers on the first pairing…way above his pay grade.
Apparently Rutherford/Alvin are actively trying to find a RD (who isn’t?) and would like to move Desharnais to create additional cap space.
There is chatter that Nils Hoglander could be part of the transaction.
Wow, Hoglander is another Canucks failed prospect it looks like. If only we had room we could turn him around.
I’m not sure I would call him a “failed” prospect since he has played 249 NHL games.
Of course he was drafted in the second round in 2019 two spots later than some kid named Raphael Lavoie…now THAT is a failed prospect.
Some prospects get more opportunities when they play on worse teams.
Remind me again which team won the Pacific Division last season.
The team that lost in the second round of the playoffs.
The Edmonton Oilers eliminated the Vancouver Canucks with a 3-2 win in Game 7 of the Western Conference Second Round at Rogers Arena.
And another reminder, the Edmonton Oilers also won the entire western conference and were awarded a trophy called the Clarence S. Campbell bowl. Have you heard of it?
Leon can be the best player in the world on any given night – and this year he has definitely been the best Oiler.
To say I love his reaction to signing that big contract extension as compared to others who immediately flatline would be an immense understatement. The guy plays and works for the right reasons. It is wonderful to watch.
Prospectonaut!
Mazura and the Birds of Fire get the night off. Everyone else amongst NAmateurs shall toil.
Boston University (Lachance, Copponi) @ 5 p.m.
Vermont (Münzenberger, Määttä) @ 5 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5 p.m.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Ottawa (Stonehouse) @ 5 p.m.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 6 p.m.
All times are two times and are also Sylvan Lake time.
Fantastic couple of games. Lots of guys are playing very well, but we definitely have to note how well Nurse is playing now that he is healthy and whatever else is resolved.
With the reduction in major defensive gaffs and the forwards more committed to the defensive game, which is always a struggle for these guys, we see that the Skinner Pickard combo is sufficient.
I want to see a lit bit of nasty added to the line-up, perhaps at 3LD. Fingers crossed for Bouchard.
Lauzon appreciates your support.
Shots fired!
My Broberg post responding to that quote was censored.
The meme form of criticism (ape, midwit, zen master) is apparently not allowed.
ghostdot10
LOL cries about being censored on a private blog is peak North American victimhood culture.
Where am I crying? I said the post was censored. I did not say he did not have the right to censor it. I did not ask for it to be put back. I did not even ask for the reason it was censored.
Leon like most nights this season is looking like the Hart of the league.
“What if you combined Joe Thornton and Evgeni Malkin into one body?”
Frank Mahovlich-Peter Stastny-Alexander Yakushev.
Jagr+Forsberg
Ahead of the trade deadline and in the interest of strategic flexibility, I think they should try Stetcher at 3LD for a spell. Emberson needs stability to thrive and should not move, and Kulak and Nurse are doing so well together, I am thinking of having a veteran like Stetcher eat up minutes at 3LD until the trade deadline.
Worst case, it gives you a fallback option in case of injury down the road and puts our best defencemen into a more stable usage pattern.
I read elsewhere that Derek Ryan didn’t lose a faceoff last night. I thought “impressive!” but then I researched and discovered he only had two faceoffs. While researching, I further realized that his FO percentage is 63.5% for the year, tied currently for the lead, for those who have taken a lot of faceoffs.
His career FO percentage is 55.3%. I know everyone is saying to replace him with Philp (who I think is great), but I have a soft spot for old guy Derek Ryan.
Cult of hockey podcast last night they mentioned Ryan in the last 6 games has won 30/39 face offs
That’s insane!
I was reading yesterday’s game thread and today’s posts as well. I don’t recall much being said about the Wild not having Zuccarello, Eriksson Ek, and Brodin out. And then Middleton only played 37 seconds before getting injured. So my first point is that the Wild didn’t dress their best lineup.
But as a counterpoint, I recognize that we didn’t have Arvidsson or Kane in the lineup, plus we played Pickard, versus Minnesota had Gustavsson in net, one of the best goalies in the league this year.
The Oilers played an amazing 60 minutes and probably would’ve won last night even if Minnesota had their best lineup.
Keep in mind that the Wild were #1 in the league going into the game.
You can only play the team in front of you. There are too many moving parts to try to determine every teams ‘best lineup’ and if we would beat them, but I have realized a long time ago that every team in the NHL is very good at this hockey thing. There are no freebies, and no easy wins, so a win against the Wild, even missing some players, gives me a lot of satisfaction.
Kulak was always better than Broberg in Edmonton. Which is the main reason he’s now a Blue. Your final note on Kulak is precious. Thanks for that pearl of reality.
Broberg isn’t at Kulak’s level right now. He may be better at some point, but Kulak is running great underlying stats and Bro didn’t, so it’s sustainable
Yet, it is rumoured that the Oilers are looking for a left shot D who can play both sides at the trade deadline.
I think they would have liked to keep Bro, I don’t think that’s in question, but he wanted out, and the cap hit isn’t right for the Oilers structure as it is, on both accounts
Bowman has done pretty well it seems so far fixing the damage
They could use another Kulak.
So you’re saying Broberg is a 3rd pairing defender when properly slotted, nice.
Age is on Broberg’s side.
It is
In the previous off-season Holland went all Cup or bust talk. Holland stated that now is not the time for youth mistakes. Add in a coaching change and Lavoie and Broberg knew they were hooped. I knew both these players were never going to be given a fair chance in Edmonton under Holland.
The problem with that was his guys still made mistakes. Des went PB, if Stecher was healthy I’m not sure Ceci wouldn’t have joined him given he was struggling in GF%, and Bro ended up playing more in the final
Faulty reasoning by Mr H
Too bad Kulak just didn’t stick with Nurse, then Broberg might have played with Ceci on the third pair.
I don’t comment her too often — lurking must be in my nature I guess — and when I do it’s often to critique our less than excellent play-by-play team.
But last night really ticked me off. After the “cowardly hit by Ryan Hartman” DeBrusk shrugged it off as “oh he just gave him a pop there”. The Oilers potentially lose one of their top defenders to a pointless, cowardly hit and our intrepid team can only note that “well it wasn’t his head, that’s good” and then move on.
We need to pass a law that if a former player didn’t contribute anything to their team beyond pointless, fourth-line gritensity then they need to pass a course in hockey streategy and tactics before joining a broadcast team. Repeating the terms “shooters’ mentality” and “sticks in lanes” doesn’t count.
Otherwise we’re stuck with what we have on SN, a low-talent, intellectually lazy colour-commentator who spends his time justifying his minimal contributions to his former team’s fortunes by overlooking dirty and or obstructive play by the less talented against talented players.
I want a colour commentator who can identify the oppositions’ tactics in forechecking and if the Oilers change their breakouts in any way. If a player’s ice team increases or decreases. If a line is given more responsibility. If the Oiler’s improved PK is due to a change in tactics, improved goaltending, or new personnel.
How often have you heard our play by play team ever discuss anything like that?
DeBrusk was clearly never interested in anything beyond skating in straight lines and hitting things, because he’s unable to identify anything beyond the skating in straight lines and hitting things.
His primary contribution to winning when he did play was bruising / injuring those who did contribute to winning, so when someone takes liberties with a dirty hit he at best overlooks it, if not celebrating it.
I don’t expect them to fully embrace or utilize advanced analytics, but if you can’t even spot changes in the coach’s delegation of ice time what are you even doing?
End rant.
The ESPN feed was excellent with Ray Ferraro.
In the US when ESPN+ has it as the feature game, the Canadian feed is not available. I really like Ray Ferraro. My one complaint about last night’s coverage is once it was 5-1, the whole broadcast team constantly made excuses for the Wild, mentioning the injured players countless times. They said over and over again how uncharacteristic it was of Minnesota.
Yes, injured players are a factor and occasionally they gave the Oilers credit for how well they were playing, but it was overtly one sided in that respect. It was more Minnesota lost the game, not Edmonton winning it.
The Oilers have $9 million cap from 2 of their players on IR, and still have the depth to field a competitive team and accrue cap space. How about some credit for that.
Agreed! Both Debrusk and Michaels are off topic and often rambling about nonsense when important plays are happening. Like the first goal last night. There is very little recognition of strategy or anything meaningful. Michaels is too busy trying to be funny, which he’s not. Think he’s ok for radio but not for tv. Debrusk trying too hard to not be a homer that he can’t even provide a thoughtful comment most times.
It’s a sad, sad thing that US broadcasts are superior, and they have all of our best talent
I get the sports announcer growly bellowing, but there is the sports version, witty, and the MME / Monster Truck rally version. Not a fan of the latter
100%. Last night’s play by play on the Oil feed was absolutely aweful.
Endless rambling about random things that had nothing to do with the game; trying to be funny with dumb comments.
I’ve been impressed with Gadzik when he’s on at intermission.
He has some good things to say and think he can have a good career in NHL broadcasting.
Moon / Stauffer would be better on the TV
Gazdik has an easy job doing analysis during intermission.
I think Micheals & Debrusk aim to be entertaining and bring energy more than anything. Mostly because Oiler fans already know everything anyway.
I’ve been watching hockey for most of my life, I have an intellectual interest in tactics in general and a deep emotional interest in the Oilers and I have difficulty being able to identify much in real time.
It’s more of a matter of “old school” thinking, intellectual laziness, and finding budget conscious talent.
The Oilers tied the Toronto f-ing Maple Leafs in revenue last year and the team’s fans can’t expect a pre-game show or much in the way of insight during the broadcast. Stauffer and MacTavish know their stuff but are constrained by time in terms of holding any sort of insightful conversations.
I have all the patience in the world for Gene — hosting a broadcast like that is a hell of a tough job — but he needs to do a better job of just getting out of the way during those panel discussions and just let the others drive the conversation.
It’s entertainment that drives hockey, especially in the US. Most Americans don’t have intellectual interest in tactics or a deep emotional interest in hockey. It’s different in Canada so there needs to be a balance of pure entertainment and serious analysis.
I don’t think it’s just budget.
US broadcasts have to compete with the big three sports, who have a history of more tactic / strategic based commentary, and a need to educate their audience as well.
Canadian hockey broadcasters have a passionate, captive audience so the quality of the game broadcast is far less important — and it’s obvious in the quality that we receive.
Our play-by-play team can only speak to “heart” and “grit” and the intermission is largely free marketing for the Oilers’ charitable efforts. Not to downplay the impact the Oilers’ charity efforts have, but putting more time and budget to providing greater insight into the game would be great.
Can you name some tv hockey broadcasters you’d like see do the Oilers game, besides Ray Ferraro?
To provide a positive example of what good colour commentating could be:
When the Oilers played the Kings last year all the talk leading up to the series was on the Kings’ forecheck and what the Oilers would do to counter it.
The Oilers were having success, so do you know what Jason Strudwick did in preparation to appearing on Gregor’s show?
It was great sports radio.
Can you, for one second, imagine DeBrusk putting in the time and effort to do 10% of that? Better to just talk about the importance of face punching in winning
re: this post and entirety of comments.
good grief.
While we are on this topic, one thing that still seems odd to me is the colour guy stationed between the two benches. I forget the guy who started this (can see his face in my mind… getting old!!) but even then I don’t think it added much to the commentary and lost some of the dynamic between play-by-play and colour guy sitting in the booth together. Maybe it’s just me though!!
trust the Oilers fan to find ways to complain about something when we get to watch McDavid and Draisaitl every night. Like dude, its not that big of a deal. I watch NHL via stream so I can switch and I’ll tell you Louis and Michaels are far from the worst broadcast team. Personally, I like them.
They have been playing well over a good stretch, the difference last night was smart offensive play, connected and consistent. If they can keep that rolling they are going to be very hard to beat
I loved the amount of well timed traffic they had, and the team passing is really noticeable. They are breaking out well and the puck movement is messing up D structures as they go up the ice. Also lots of O zone movement
Big test against the Vegans. I hope to see the same offensive tactics and hopefully they break through the clogged slot this time, many times
oops , replied in wrong thread
Some broadcasts feature two guys in the booth AND one between the benches.
I wonder (outside of Zac at Oilersnation) why there wasn’t a response last night and why no penalty and why no discussion of follow up action for the Hartman play on Bouch. It was interference at the very least. Clear intent to injure. That sort of play is sneaky dirty and this is the crap Hartman is known for. The game was well in hand at that point. Why no response? Why no mention by any Oilers after? If Bouch is out for any length of time we are really going to see his value on this team. Kinda like what happened when Nurse was out.
Otherwise, what a game! When Leon cruised around the net with a guy draped all over him, you just knew he would make some ridiculous pass. I hope they keep that line together when Arvidson returns.
Take a number for the next game… I’m certain Kane did
Leon did have a chat from the bench. Not sure what was said.
Leon informed Hartman he will be getting gooned, Perry was informing him of the futures that will be cashed.
The refs were mad their team lost.
Three things stand out to me in the Oil’s recent play. Everyone is bearing down hard. Last night we saw Podz blocking a hard shot late in the third when the outcome was settled. I saw Skinner good in effort too (if not quite so good in execution).
The next thing is the passing. Its been so smooth across the team. Nurse is exhibit A here, but throughout the game the players were passing with pace up the ice. Sometimes an Oiler would touch a pass to a open space and I thought “Oh no” then another Oiler came flying into the space to receive the pass right on the tape.
The last thing is the disappearance of the glaring defensive breakdowns. We hardly ever see our goalies left all alone with one or two opponents firing away at will from the slot. Music!
The disappearance of glaring defensive break downs is really helping the goaltenders. They no longer need to make that huge save that they notably struggle to make.
The NHL and PHWA will probably not recognize Draisaitl except with the ‘Rocket’. Watching the highlights (because the games are on past their bedtimes) does not show how 29 is impacting the play in his own end – he should be a Selke nominee. Therefore, recognition should come from Oiler fans, and a formal title should be given:
We hereby proclaim
For all of Oiler Nation
Now Leon the 1st
LT, there’s something happening here. For what it’s worth?
Absolutely zero worries about Oilers goalies given last night’s performance by Pickard.
All things being equal, you just add the McDavid connection and bang the drum you stand a chance in any playoff series.
Since giving up 5 to Chicago in the becoming-annual “Both Goalies Suck in Season Debuts” spectacle, Pickard has played 9 games in a row allowing 3 or fewer, & has won all 7 times the Oilers gave him any goal support at all (both losses were shutouts). 7 of 9 were quality starts.
Pickard has made it to league average if Skinner can continue his fine play he will reach the elusive 900 Mendoza line by Christmas.
.900 is pretty much league average now I think.
Mendoza line has changed to well below I would suggest.
It’s pretty astounding.
In 10 years, the league average has dropped from .915 to .900.
There’s been a concomitant increase in goals against average.
This is currently the worst league average save percentage since 1995.
Bring it on! This is the best hockey since…ever.
I recall, after watching the 2010 Olympics, how incredibly boring NHL hockey was. (Remember the Oilers trying to break out of their own zone?) That’s no longer a problem.
A function of speed and skill being prioritized from an early age in the development process and the resources needed to accomplish that.
I expect the recent NCAA decision to accept major junior players into college programs is going to accelerate this further.
LT: “It’s more Bruins than Oilers really”… I was thinking the exact same thing for long stretches of the game. Not sure if we’ve coined a phrase on this yet, but this ‘Oilers Zone’ is working tremendously. Perhaps it just took the coaching staff some video time with the players to iron out the wrinkles, and oh man is the PK clicking right now!
One thing for sure is this isn’t the ‘Eakins Swarm’, and if this is what he was trying to implement this group of players are mastering it.
It’s really a combination of both. The Oilers work in the Ozone has been tremendous as well in the Dzone. The Oilers have become the Brulers.
The slaughter on the frozen water
and the murder in December
between game 4 of the SCF and last nights game I definitely got my moneys worth for goals lately
Woot
Leon should be a legit candidate for the Selke at this point.
This award is, of course, for defenisve play but it always goes to a forward that is also high end offensively. Its really the “best 2-way player” and Drai has been elite 2-way all year long.
Take a look at his GA/60 and expected goal share numbers – legit tops in the league.
He takes all important faceoffs for the team as well.
Absolutely but I’m sure it’s gonna be very reputational and he will get overlooked for a few years
I’d argue voting for the best two-way forward makes perfect sense — it’s far better to have the puck deep in the offensive zone than in your own, so a certain level of offence would reflect that.
If Bouch is out, I think you could try:
Nurse/Kulak
Ekholm/Emberson
Regula/Stecher
I have read that Regula plays both sides
The Nurse/Kulak pairing is so good that I think you just play them full time and as the top pairing and fade the 3rd pairing big time.
Maybe:
Ekholm/Kulak
Nurse/Stecher
Regula/Emberson
Also, I think there would be a chance they don’t send Dermott down today and play his as the left shot.
Lets not forget, Regula is coming of an injury and hasn’t played much. I think the plan is a conditioning stint (per Stauff).
PuckPedia on Regula:
Despite #NHLBruins waiving Alec Regula & #LetsGoOilers claiming him, he has not yet been activated off IR.
Since he was injured prior to season, is on a 2-way contract & did not have any NHL days last year, he carries $0 cap hit until activated.
Good info – I didn’t realize he was on opening day IR.
I don’t imagine the org is looking for him to play right now.
Imagine if Bouch is out for tomorrow and Dermott gets claimed….
To be honest, I’d prefer Kemp over Dermott but, of course, the organization forgot Kemp exists se we’d see Josh Brown.
I think it’s safe to say that Dermott won’t be claimed. The Condors can use an experience LHD and Edmonton claimed Regula who they probably prefer over Dermott or any RHD with the Condor.
I guess as it turns out the Wild can use an experienced LHD too.
Evan Bouchard has found his high end game. Not only is he not making many overt mistakes (yes, I remember “the pass” against Tampa) but he’s also making high end defensive plays. He has made 4-5 wonderful zone entry denial plays in the last couple of games.
It would SUCK to lose this guy – the biggest minute muncher on the team and an absolute elite play driver.
With the afternoon game tomorrow and no morning skate, the team likely practices today (even though they flew home last night).
I don’t imagine Bouch will be on the ice but perhaps there is a real update – fingers cross – baited breath.
It would be quite a story if Bouchard’s old D partner in London could step in an provide cover in his absence. I know it’s a bit of a gamble considering the next game is against Vegas & he’s just returning from injury. But I hope they activate him instead of simply inserting Dermott, who hasn’t played a game in a while either.