Senator at Oilers, G34 2024-25

by Lowetide
  • On the road to: VEG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: CBJ, STL, TBAY (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
  • On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: VEG, FLA, BOS, SJS, OTT (Expected 4-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: UTA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 9-4-0, 18 points in 13 games
  • December results: 7-2-0
  • Oilers in 2024-25: 20-11-2, 42 points in 33 games

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fishman

Even wearing the bubble Hyman has been amazing! Big part of this teams success.

Funnybird

Congrats to DR10 for 600 games. Great job by Gene/SN for acknowledging it.

Last edited 6 minutes ago by Funnybird
SKOilerFan

Impressive

theDjdj

Anybody looked at the Goal Visualizer on nhl.com? It’s rather incredible how well they can track the players and the puck now

SKOilerFan

It’s very telling on who was chasing to the non HD areas and who ends up on the wrong side of pucks

Paulie

4 minutes

jp

What a pass by Perry. Damn shame Skinner couldn’t finish it.

Paulie

No denying Hyman!

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Hyman with his best Arvidsson impression.

rich tm

Start the 2nd unit?

rich tm

Glad they don’t listen to me.

SKOilerFan

More than 2 shots on a cold goalie may be a good strategy

fishman

As good as our PK has been for awhile we are still only 26 th on the PK. Shows how bad we were to start the season. That was a good kill considering no Nuge and Nurse in the box.

Darryl8843

I know Arvidsson has a goal but I’d try Skinner on the pp. Arvidson doesn’t seem ready to shoot. Skinner is more of a pure shooter I think

Funnybird

I upvoted your comment but it didn’t age well, haha. Arvi instrumental in the goal

Darryl8843

Haha I hear you

jp

Arvidsson was actually exceptional on the PP his last couple of years with the Kings.

Just looking and among 215 forwards in the league (22-23 and 23-24) who played 200 or more PP minutes, Arvidsson had the 7th best P/60.

And 3 of the 6 players ahead of him were McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge.

Probably fair that Arvidsson is next man up for a spot on PP1.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I completely forgot Hamonic was still playing in the NHL.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I can’t believe the power play continues to be anemic.

Ranford.85

I still think the Oilers should base PP1 on McDavid, PP2 on Draisaitl. Yes they’re dynamic together, but woof so far this season. Historic PP in the past, adapt or die

Last edited 40 minutes ago by Ranford.85
jp

Not exactly anemic.

They’re over 10 goals/60 (7th in the league) since the start of November.

Their PP has been back to ‘very good’ for an extended period, if not quite as dominant as it has been at times.

Ranford.85

Bouchard gifts a break away and then is on PP1…
Yes historic PP and it’s Bouchard’s bread and butter. He’s been terrible for a while, discipline isn’t always a bad thing

Chelios is a Dinosaur

He has the puck on his stick a lot right.

OriginalPouzar

Bad one by Bouch, very bad!

StixMalone

That was very slow and lazy….

oil-in-the-blood

inexcusable

SKOilerFan

Imo this us the main reason for getting passed over for team canada. The big vapor lock moments can come at any time

OriginalPouzar

Nurse/Kulak were chasing all period – other than that, Oilers had the puck most of the period.

OriginalPouzar

I missed what happened with that Hyman penalty, why weren’t the Oilers SH?

Funnybird

Cousins gave Hyman a shot or two before Hyman retaliated

OriginalPouzar

Pretty dominant period by the Oilers (except for 30 seconds in the last minute and the terrible PP).

Scungilli Slushy

Dominant is really the score

Controlling play with no result means nothing. It allows the other team a spark as we’ve seen

Sunnyboy

O zone time basically even

OriginalPouzar

High danger chances on net were not.

Funnybird

Nothing play to back of the net in a blink of an eye. So good.

DevilsLettuce

Goal by the Volvo while the Ferrari stays in the garage

Scungilli Slushy

That is what I’ve been on about. More on Arvi than Connor because he gave Connor a pass and was in the right space to be able to finish. Connor is always looking for it, not always there. Perfect

Scungilli Slushy

Watching the play Arvi sneaks behind the D

Whaler Slamamoto

Hyman’s face is starting to look like an old potato.

rich tm

Arvy with a nice finish. That is a strength.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Viktor “Plays Here?” Arvidsson with his best Hyman impression.

OriginalPouzar

LMHF#1

 December 22, 2024 5:47 pm

Arvidsson has done precisely nothing good thus far. Maybe you elevate him to get him a quick boost…but he really doesn’t deserve it.

Good choice by coach!

jp

Nice goal. Hell of a pass by McDavid.

Tarkus

To the Viktor go the spoils!

OriginalPouzar

Hell of a pass by McDavid!

Great keep by Ek!

fishman

Arvy says I like playing on Connor’s line!

Darryl8843

So another very puzzling start tonight

OriginalPouzar

Aside from the awful PP, its been all Oilers.

OriginalPouzar

Drai with a great defensive play and then two poor plays – trying to lose the Selke!

SKOilerFan

2 drinks already for shot mentality!
won’t make the end of the game at this pace

SkatinginSand

It is a good thing that “plays the game the right way” isn’t also in the game.

fishman

PP sputtering……

OriginalPouzar

Great support by Leon after Arvy put Bouch in a terrible position.

OriginalPouzar

What a beautiful play that was, starting with the great strech by Emberson.

LMHF#1

Arvidsson has done precisely nothing good thus far. Maybe you elevate him to get him a quick boost…but he really doesn’t deserve it.

OriginalPouzar

Anecdotally, I think Derek Ryan generally has a string of strong play coming back from some games off. I call Ryan goal tonight.

OriginalPouzar

Kings lost in regulation, which is nice.

OriginalPouzar

Nuge not on the ice for warm-ups……

Wonder who gets the 1LW spot tonight?

OriginalPouzar

Answer Arvidsson, per Jack Michael:

Adjusted lines:

Arvidsson-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Skinner-Ryan-Perry

theDjdj

In a salary cap league we will never be able to afford the full market price for above league average goaltending while we pay the fair cost of enjoying the gifts of the Hockey Gods’ German Prophet and their one true Son on Ice. That doesn’t mean we won’t get above avg tending (I too am a full Skinner supporter) but those clamouring to ship the homegrown, young Skinner for something more proven need to realise that to pay overs for an elite goalie will come at opportunity cost elsewhere in the roster.

Even then, I don’t think buying an “elite” goalie is as easy it sounds. Goaltending, in my opinion, is the ultimate “grass is greener” position. So much of the position’s success relies on the marriage between a team’s style/system and an individual’s skillset. There’s no guarantee that with a superior save percentage will mesh with our system. Its better the devil you know. To that end, all S. Skinner needs to be is good enough for us to win and the win record and his save % are evidence that he clears that hurdle well.

Scungilli Slushy

Nice

You only get a goalie that is above the crowd and stays there by draft or by luck. They are few in any era, to press too much into that is a different form of Lucic hunting, which lead nowhere good

So the thing to work at is if the tandem and AHL depth is good enough. Right now Skinner and Pick are good enough. Rod might be ready if needed for a bit

However given the team D in front of them which is at the top of the league, if they are good enough they should be at the top of the range for goalies. They seem to be at the moment taking out the start

theDjdj

Yes, exactly. I’m of the opinion the S. Skinner is exactly the type of goalie you hope to find when you’re a contender like the Oilers are. If he were properly elite we’d be priced out of him. If we were to try and buy him we’d pay overs with no real guarantee of success (see: Campbell). Instead we develop a tender internally, that delivers good results under cost control for a long time.

I’ve no data to this point but I feel keepers do improve the older they get. Which goes further to my general point that we keep S. Skinner.

Traveller

So Edmonton at 8-2 is facing a team with an 8-1-1 record today. Certainly not to be taken lightly. Diving into a comparison of those 10 game records:

Ottawa 3.2 gf 1.8 ga 14% , 79% pk
Edmonton 4.0 gf 2.2 ga 30% pp 82% pk

However, more importantly, 8 of Ottawa’s games have been against non-playoff teams and the 2 playoff teams, Carolina and Vancouver, have been slumping losing as much as they have been winning in this stretch.

Edmonton’s last 10 games 7 of 10 were playoff teams (including 3 division leaders) and of the playoff teams, only Minnesota has been slumping.

Credit to Ottawa for getting back into the playoff race by beating teams they should beat if they want to get into the playoffs, but based on strenght of schedule the Oilers are the hotter team going into this game. They don’t need their A game to win, but a C game or worse could end up with an L.

theDjdj

Ottawa have to fly across the country, lose an hour, and play within what I believe is the minimum amount hours between games

Traveller

The game last night was in Vancouver. That is only a 90 minute flight and pretty easy when flying private. Granted, if they flew in last night, they would have got to bed very late while the Oilers were home for dinner.  Or if they stayed in Vancouver they are flying the morning of a game. It is also their 4th game on this western road swing in 6 nights. Their average age is around 3 years younger than the Oilers though, so that helps their recovery a little. I also think since both teams are off for 5 full days after tonight, neither needs to hold back.

theDjdj

oh gosh, my apologies. For some bizarre reason I thought it was in Ottawa.

OriginalPouzar

There is no doubt the Oilers have the scheduling advantage for tonight’s game.

leadfarmer

I do wish they would put skinner on the top pp and take Nuge off. Otherwise there is absolutely no reason to have Skinner on the roster.

anonymous

You’re right, there was no reason to have him on the roster.

Scungilli Slushy

It’s on JS right now. He is a vet with the best LW spot in the world sitting there, available for anyone that can take it. Nuge is incumbent, but is vulnerable with his production so far

All he has to do is be harder on the basics and execute them. Clear the puck well, don’t lose too many puck battles, don’t get beaten backtracking. Those are the price of entry for KK,as they should be. If Pod and Kap can the only reason Skinner can’t lies between his ears

Traveller

I doubt it is going to happen any time soon.

Nuge joined McDavid and Draisaitl on the first PP unit shortly after Gulutzan took over coaching the PP in 2018/19. In the first year, the PP improved from 14.8% to 21.2% from dead last up to 9th in the league. Things got rolling the next year as the Oilers had the best PP at 29.5%. They followed this up with 1st, 3rd, 1st and 4th in PP, recorded 5 of the top ten PP% over the 5 year span, and set an all time NHL record (since 1977) for PP% in one season. Their average over the 5 seasons was 28%, 3.6% above Tampa and only Tampa was able to have 1 season above 28% during that time period. In the playoffs, it has averaged 31.3% over the 5 years in 61 games.

Nuge is a big part of that success. While McDavid and Leon were easily 1, 2 in the PP points race in that period, Nuge was 10th only 19 back of MacKinnon (who was 53 behind Leon in 2nd). They have had to go with out Nuge from time to time over that 5 year span due mostly to injury. It doesn’t usually go well. Naturalstattrick does 3 year time spans. From 21/22 to 23/24, with the big 3 on the ice on the PP, its scored at uber elite level of 14.35 g/ 60 in 745 minutes. Without Nuge, in 100 minutes McDavid and Leon on the PP managed a g/60 of only 7.65. The three work well together.

The power play got off to a poor start this season, but based on over 400 games of data, I can see them being given some time to work it out. And in the past 15 games, it has been operating at 28.2%, right around the prior 5 year average. The Oiler’s coaching staff clearly doesn’t think its broken, so why fix it?

OriginalPouzar

Would be nice if WSH could provide some out of town scoreboard help – the Kings and Knights have been hot just like the Oilers.

OriginalPouzar

Chaulk is doing a fine job with his young forwards this season.

I do think the Noel H. for Jacob Perreault trade, along with the addition of Lane Pederson back from injury, has made a legit difference as the added skill has has really helped solidify the top 3 lines.

Petrov/Grubbe/Wright as the third line is a very good AHL line with the way they are all playing.

Thank you Matvey Petrov for announcing your arrival (6 goals in 5 games and he’s a very strong 2-way player).

Reja

It’s too bad Jarventie is hurt as it looks like the gang is stringing together some nifty little trades. Even if Perrault never makes it if he can be a key to unlocking Savoie and some other youngsters then it’s a win in my books.

OriginalPouzar

The Jarventie situation is very disappointing. At this point, my hope is that he is fully healthy this off-season and able to train for hockey and be ready for next September.

Perrault has been playing with Pederson and Griffith – not really getting much ice with Savoie.

Reja

It’s the domino effect one line unlocks another line and so on.

bcoil

Is Jarventie a mistake by J Jackson for not doing our homework on his injury status ? Is there any thing we can do to get compensation from his former team ? Questions I would like Oiler’s management to address.

OriginalPouzar

I think management made the trade with full knowledge of Jarventie’s health status.

There was no comparison with their on-ice play last season, Jarventie is far ahead on-ice and I don’t see the trade being made without the health factor being mitgating.

OriginalPouzar

 McDavid made another incredible pass to Corey Perry to begin the second goal, nice pass from Perry and Mattias Ekholm has a great shot.

The pass was fantastic but it didn’t get across clean and that may have been the reason they scored. Perry said he planned on one-timing it but it didn’t get across fast enough. I think Askarov makes the save if Perry shoots!

Reja

I like having Ekholm on with the goalie pulled he has a good knack for being able to sneak in open down low. When do we start talking a 2 year team friendly deal for Ekholm? I’ll check back with you in a year.

Bruce McCurdy

Can’t begin to (officially) negotiate with Ekholm until Jul 01.

OriginalPouzar

But they CAN with Emberson and I am somewhat expecting a deal within a few months of the calendar turn, something in the 2 X $1.65MM range.

I still have a bit of worry about an injury stopping him from playing 50 games this season leading to Group 6 UFA status – I think he’s still sign back but would rather just lock it up.

I presume that he’s happy as heck playing nightly on this team in this city (but, of course, just a presumption).

Scungilli Slushy

I wouldn’t be doing that until his contract is over. He won’t leave for money, his family loves Edmonton he says, and he’ll be 36, have to see where he’s at physically in nearly two years

anonymous

Yes, for sure. Time to actively mitigate self inflicted wounds.

OriginalPouzar

Even the folks who regard every goal allowed as a mortal sin by the stopper would have to admit that Pickard’s role in the game was pivotal to the result.

Or, apparently, a mortal sin by Evan Bouchard – Brett Kulak can do no wrong!

Bruce McCurdy

Some even blamed Nurse for that first goal… & he was sitting on the bench.

rich tm

I’m waiting for someone to blame Smid.

Last edited 5 hours ago by rich tm
Elgin R

Steve Staios is always to blame.

OriginalPouzar

Given his TOI the last couple of games, would not be surprised if Jeff Skinner gets the scratch tonight and D. Ryan is back in.

cowboy bill

Although there are some that think J Skinner should be on the top line with McDavid replacing the mighty Nuge.. I don’t think Connor would agree and he probably picks his linemates.

OriginalPouzar

Truth be told, Jeff Skinner has 3 more point (3 more goals) at 5 on 5 than Nuge does and, well, much less ice time and lesser linemates.

cowboy bill

Players earn their ice time. Nuge contributes more to the team. Coaches appreciate that sort of thing and so do teammates.

leadfarmer

And a -10 on a team that the next lowest player is -4. He’s as bad defensively as advertised.
But Nuge needs to start getting more points. And Skinner needs to start packing his bags

hunter1909

Those who truly understand sports know that RNH is 10X the player that Skinner is now, or likely ever to be.

edit: I’d really prefer to say 100X the player, but some people just don’t understand the nuances inherit in sports/artistic analysis.

Last edited 4 hours ago by hunter1909
OriginalPouzar

I never said anything about Skinner being as valuable as Nuge, but simply noted a production comparison given all the flack that Skinner takes.

To be outscoring Nuge (materially) at 5 on 5 when Nuge has played about 70% of his TOI with McDavid (250 out of 400 minutes) is notable in the discussion.

Traveller

It is also notable in the discussion that in 49 minutes of Skinner playing with McDavid on ice, the Oilers have been outscored 1-7. Granted there may be some puck luck, with a PDO of .813. Nuge with Connor is 15-11 GF/GA on ice. , with a PDO of ~1.

The Oilers with Nuge and McDavid on ice together score at a rate of 3.6 g/60 is only slightly below the 3.8 g/60 from 22/23 when Nuge had his big year. The coaches, and perhaps even McDavid, are still good with this arrangement for now.

OriginalPouzar

That’s all nice – doesn’t change that fact that Skinner, a long time 5 on 5 producer in the NHL, is producing much more than Nuge at 5 on 5 with much less ice time and WAY inferior linemates.

Its not meant as a shot at Nuge but a note that Skinner has actually produced at evens for this team despite the deployment.

Traveller

He has produced but at what cost? He is -9 at 5 on 5 (12GF/21 GA). That’s more than double Janmark and Ryan, the 2nd and 3rd worst differentials on the team. I think this guy has more in him, but he can’t be in picture like he was on the first goal the other night sauntering back as Kunin passed him at center ice. He then hustled, but too late as Kunin beat him to the slot and scored (the one people were blaming either Kulak or Bouchard for but Skinner definitely was culpable too). Every player makes those kinds of errors from time to time, but so far with him, the bad seems to have outweighed the good.

rich tm

Sometimes benching a player, as unpleasant as it can be in the moment, helps given them the reset they need. Skinner is gifted offensively. But I like that KK wants his players to be responsible at both ends of the ice.

There’s an old quip from Casey Stengel about a 3rd baseman who in the top of an inning singles to drive home a run, and in the bottom of an inning makers an error to allow to. “I can’t win too many games with them fellers”.

I feel this is where Skinner is right now.

hunter1909

Going to acquire Skinner is probably the dumbest move Oilers made this past offseason.

If it were Lowe+MacT behind this move I might suggest they thought he’d be able to help his brother who’s currently playing goal for the team.

Sierra

Lots of “concerns” expressed here this morning for a team that has won 2 in a row, that is 8-2 in last ten and 7-2 in the month of December. Maybe it wasn’t as pretty or dominating as we want, but they got the games to OT to secure a point and then won in OT for the 2nd point. This is a big deal.

The last 2 games have shown us that the 4th line isn’t working. Maybe it’s the lack of a true centre, or it’s the jSkinner effect. I’m curious how long they continue with the Janmark experiment at centre.

Darryl8843

I don’t get the concern either. The only reason the top 6 played so much was Askarov played out of his mind. Most games that’s a blowout.

leadfarmer

Because maybe we’ve all seen that overplaying the big guns leads to burning them out in past years

Scungilli Slushy

This. The concern isn’t that they are a good team, but what are they doing differently based on the past playoffs to increase their chances this time? Because we are seeing the same issues that cause the biggest problems as I see it

PP can be reffed out of games, especially in playoff games where the refs ‘want to let the players decide it’. They need to improve 5v5 scoring still, although more guys are producing I think so far, only Janmark hasn’t scored 5v5

Still they should be stronger, currently 5v5 8th in GF and 14th in GA. I say this because they have a player in a league of his own, and three other elite players in Drai, Bouch and Ekholm when he’s feeling good, and more good talent

OriginalPouzar

I’ve never seen them burnt out – I’ve seen them truly injured in the playoffs effecting their play.

leadfarmer

December from 2 and 3 years ago should refresh your memory

OriginalPouzar

No idea what this means.

OriginalPouzar

Literally 2nd place in the entire NHL since November 1 (by points percentage) and there are various areas that aren’t fully up to speed.

meanashell11

I wanted them to draft Kemp and they did. I have waited 7 years and the poor guy can’t get a break. He’ll end up in New York, Boston, or LA as he has connections to those teams. I hope he comes back to bite us in the ass.

DevilsLettuce

His foot speed and lack of puck skill probably ensure us that’s unlikely

BornInAGretzkyJersey

He’ll end up in New York, Boston, or LA as he has connections to those teams.

You’ve mentioned this before, and I’m curious about these connections. Is it family members within those organizations, ties to coaches or other staff?

leadfarmer

in the land of butterfly goalies it’s nice to see a stand up goalies. With plummeting save percentages I think we’re gonna see a shift. Askarov is gonna have a very bright future

cowboy bill

There has to be a happy medium. Just don’t go down too soon and there you have a standup butterfly.

OriginalPouzar

Askarov is a stand-up goalie?

cowboy bill

Well yeah, he was standing up on his head last night.

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