The great New York Yankees manager Casey Stengel once said there are 50 games you’re going to lose no matter what happens. Your starter is meek, your cleanup hitter gets thrown out of the game in the first inning, the other guy’s clean-up is Mark Whiten and you are Cincinnati. Stengel said there are also 50 games you win for the same reasons, and then he said it’s what you do in the other 50 that wins or loses the pennant.
With those words echoing down the North Saskatchewan this morning, it’s fair to say rage over last night’s game runs counter to the season we are watching. The Penguins made a statement, and the Oilers observed.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA, BOS, PIT, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN, COL, VAN (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: WAS, VAN, BUF, SEA, DET (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 8-4-2, 18 points in 14 games
- January result: 3-1-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 25-13-3, 53 points in 41 games
Edmonton reaches the halfway point looking strong overall and I don’t think there should be much worry about the roster. We know a defenseman is coming in, and suspect a goaltender is not but that remains to be seen. A RH center wouldn’t go amiss and there’s reason to believe a big winger with hair on his ass (and some skill to boot) might be heading to good old our town.
The Numbers
Everyone will give their opinion over the course of the day, here’s my take on the game. The first three GA feature stunningly poor defense and the first goal Stuart Skinner allowed that he should feel shame over was the fourth one. Skinner absolutely needed to be better, but the defense was horrendous. Then you get down to pointing out the culprits and there’s an answer for each of them. Brett Kulak had a poor game, but holy hell in the context of this season I can’t work up any rage at all. Josh Brown was Josh Brown, getting angry about his play because limitations is fine but at the end of the day that’s a talent issue. Darnell Nurse had a tough night but the guy has been golden all season, so we acknowledge the poor game and then look at the season overall and in my opinion the larger canvas holds sway.
The top line (Glimmer Twins and Zach Hyman) and the top pairing were dancing and drinking and singing in the dining rooms (they had no ballroom on the Titanic, but that isn’t the reason it sank). Meanwhile, the rest of the roster went full steam ahead into the Penguins, who were the better group on the night.
I don’t think there’s anything about last night that can’t be explained away by the rigors of a long season and the other side have better legs. It happens. Even in a strong season, even very good teams have evenings where nothing rhymes. It should serve as motivation for Chicago and then the LAK game. We should also acknowledge a strong first half from this hockey team.
LEBRUN’S VERBAL
Pierre Lebrun confirms an upgrade is on the way, and suggests that the team is casting a wide net in search of the defense market. Stan Bowman wants to upgrade and improve depth. Lebrun mentioned David Savard as a possibility, but also suggested a LH puck mover might be in play for Edmonton. Lebrun said Paul Coffey’s ability to shuffle, and Brett Kulak showing well on both sides, allows the Oilers to look at all available handednesses (left, right, and whatever Woodguy sees out there, I’m never quite sure) as options. I continue to prefer young Henri Jokiharju, if only because it would be cool to see an Oilers player named Henri scored a Cup-winning goal. I don’t know if it would upset Sam Pollock, but am hopeful.
It’s Friday, and we’ll set up a busy sports weekend on Sports 1440 beginning at noon today. Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast will drop in and Declanations (the original) hits via Declan Krueger. We’ll chat about the NFL playoffs, Notre Dame’s big win last night over Penn State and Matthew Savoie’s progression. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
New for The Athletic: Oilers 2024-25 midseason report cards: Leon Draisaitl is at an MVP-level
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6049494/2025/01/10/oilers-2024-25-midseason-report-cards-leon-draisaitl/
Not really something of particular need by the team but I can’t help look at the drama unfolding at the Bruin’s and wonder what it would take for us to pry Marchand loose (I imagine you’d have to be one lucky snowball on a particularly mild day in Dante’s Inferno to win Pastrnak).
The Bruins needs a re-tool and Marchand seems to find that the team has Gran Torino’d around him
On acquisitions, Bowman says:
Cap space is still a question and they are currently operating under the impression that Kane will be back. That could change.
They had their main meetings early and have identified a bunch of players. They will start and continue to watch these players and he’ll start connecting with the other managers. At this point, don’t know who the sellers are – most teams still think they are in it.
Been happy with the group and more fine tuning than making dramatic shifts. Like roles that guys have settled in to. More organized. What would be nice to add if we can – they can we add it, are players available and what is the price
Listening to Bowman and he did say straight up that Kane needs to recover from the knee before he continues the recovery process from the off-season surgeries.
Cap space is still a question and they are currently operating under the impression that Kane will be back.
What is with these petulant stars popping up accross the league:
https://x.com/JonesandKeefe/status/1877750397177090339
and there is a video
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
Strong leadership from Brad Marchand.
https://x.com/frank_seravalli/status/1877812294022762817
(click for Marchand response)
Violet. Is that mood or message? Is it the one by C.Price and Killa, or the one by Hole?
Enquiring minds not only want to know…they want to prove they’re still culturally cognizant…:-)
Knob, in my view, bears major culpability for last night’s loss. His compete level was lower than his players and persisted longer.
Not replacing his goalie before the 10 min mark of the first period,
after 3goals against, thereby sending a message to the other players, showed his head was elsewhere than on his shoulders.
Let’s be realistic, is anyone happy that he then proceeded to run the heck out of his 2 (5) top players for the remainder of the game.
I’m sure we’ll all see a better effort on Saturday.
Yeah came to post exactly this.
If it’s 3-0 in the first period, either your goalie or your team is out to lunch. Pull Skinner, wake the team up.
Or at least, you know, call a timeout.
Didn’t see the game, don’t know coaching, but based on ‘verbal’ I’ve picked up here and there…
Might we seeing a coach who’s better at between-game adjustments (last playoffs) than in-game adjustments (this season) ?
Josh Brown looked pretty good last night. Held his own, did his job, less mistakes than the rest of the group. He played well, I think he deserves a little kudo’s today.
I think I have figured out how the accrued/projected cap space plus LTIR would work if Kane isn’t coming back (and I’ve received confirmation from Jean-Francois C., who I trust with CBA and cap knowledge as much as Hart at Puckpeida).
Remember, to start, in the normal course, if a team is below the cap and accruing, when a player is acquired during the season they only need to to fit in what’s left on his AAV for that season.
That is cap space vs. projected cap space – if a team has $1MM of cap space at the deadline, they can acquire an apx $3.5MM of AAV.
When over the cap (or the adjusted cap accrual threshold which, for the Oilers is the cap less $53) using LTIR reserves, there is no pro-ration allowed. In order to acquire $3.5MM of AAV the team must have $3.5MM available.
Right now the Oilers do not have much projected cap space as, with Brown on the roster for 22 players they have $447K and projected deadline cap space of just over $1MM.
Lets presume Brown goes down and they have $1.5MM of cap space and projected $3MM of cap space at the deadline and they know Kane is not being activated during the regular season.
If they are using the LTIR space in a transaction they will lose any ability to pro-rate.
They would not be able to use the $5MM of LTIR plus the $3MM projected to acquire an $8MM player as, if they would only be able to use the true $1.5MM of cap space (and not the projected $3MM) if thy ar digging in to the $5MM of reserves.
They would be able to acquire a single $6.5MM of AAV.
They would also do two transactions and acquire $3MM of AAV in one transaction and then another $5MM in another using the LTIR.
Got it?
Not quite yet, but I’m getting closer and I appreciate your analysis!
Thanks OP.
Excellent work and appreciated.
Could they leverage the 3M in cap space to help Chicago acquire Carlson from Washington. After this transaction is complete, they put Kane on LTIR and use the 5M to acquire Carlson from Chicago?
Note: This is just for illustration, and I do not support the acquisition of Carlson.
Ok so kane has a 4 to 8 week recovery timeliness now for the knee.
Do we know if that is his total timeline or if the abdominal injury will need more after that.
If he is back in 2 months then he is the player with hair on his arse that can play for the playoffs.
If he won’t be back until playoff time what are we selling off to replace him?
If I am not horribly wrong there is about 3 million in accumulated salary by the deadline plus kanes 5 million and that could make a huge splash.
Kane clarified in his presser just now that the 4-8 week timeline is given for the procedure for a player to get back to game action in general (ie. otherwise healthy), in his case he stated it would only delay his ongoing abdominal rehab by 1-2 weeks at most.
Ok so what is the timeline for his abs?
There has never been a clear timeline for the abdominal surgery, it was complex and quite unique as Kane described it.
The 4-8 week timeline was not for Kane but for a hypothetical otherwise healthy NHLer getting back to game action after the knee surgery Kane just underwent.
So whatever Kane’s long term abdominal recovery timeline was, which we don’t know and Kane himself said he had a goal in mind today but would keep it to himself haha, by his words tack on an additional 1-2 weeks while he rests his knee, before resuming his regular ongoing abdominal rehab.
Clear as mud? Haha, hope that helps
He said it delays is ab recovery 1-2 weeks, so add that to 4-8= 5-10 weeks, Mid March at the longer end. Trade deadline March 7, season ends April 17
Looks like he’ll be back, that limits acquisitions, unless he’s delayed a month wink wink
If he’s ready it’s probably better to get games in than not until playoffs
Goodness, I hope not. He’s an old, slow 3rd pairing defenseman.
Not so much on this platform but across twitter and, in particular, on Oilers Nation – the catastrophizing after every single loss is just wild. In particular the vitriol towards Skinner and how terrible he apparently is after every meh game.
All teams lose. Elite/contending teams lose and they lose to bad teams and they get outplayed by bad teams.
Aidan Hill had an .850 last night and the Knights got shutout at home (and blown out) by bottom feeder – are they not a contender?
The problem is in winning the division or not, or conference ranking. About half of remaining games are against teams currently in a playoff position
Last season the Canucks won the division with 50 W 23 L 9 OT Pts, and a .665 Win% 109 pts.
The Stars won the conference 52 w 21 L 9 OT .689 Win% pts 113. Next the Jets 52 W 24 L 6 OT .671 Win% pts 110
The Oilers had 49 W 27L 6 OT pts .634 Win% 104 pts. Those few extra games lost in Regulation was the difference
This season there are 8 strong WC teams, maybe 7 as the Wild might fade. Margins are even slimmer. The Oilers have the second most losses right now behind the Avs. Losses in the low 20’s is probably necessary to finish higher in the division and conference. That’s getting 2 points in 3 out of 4 games the rest of the way
Agreed, Skinner wasn’t great last night, especially early, but I don’t think he was awful, its not he was leaking Grade B after Grade B. The skaters in front of him were making mistake after mistake. He wasn’t good, and he needs to be better, but all goalies have off nights and his recent games have been:
1.000
.931
.964
.963
.862
.952
.923
.786
.929
.955
.935
.938
.913
.964
.931
Kulak was terrible early – directly culpable on 2 goals against (and could have been a third but the puck was put wide).
At the same time, he was the best skater the prior game and has performed amazingly above expectations this season. No worries.
Josh Brown was Josh Brown, getting angry about his play because limitations is fine but at the end of the day that’s a talent issue.
The issue is more why the decision makers decided to play him again last night over Stecher. A one-off against Boston, fine, but why another? What are they trying to find out?
Do we suspect?
I’d be very surprised if they added a goaltender to the NHL roster (replacement of Picks) this season.
‘is not’
Aghh, yes, I should read more clearly – thank you (and sorry).
With that said, there are a vocal minority out there (at least I think minority) that think a goalie upgrade is a must, often an upgrade on starter.
If people are reportedly kicking tires on dan vladar because he’s “cheap” rental at 2.2 million (career sub 0.900 sv percentage) -> i hope we aren’t in any scramble to join bidding on 1B ish rental.
Yup, anything over the $1MM that Pickard makes decreases cap space for other adds. Wonder if Picks would get claimed on waivers. Tertiary issue is that would cut in to Rodrigue’s development games as well.
Prospectish!
It’s a dectet on the docket among the NAmateurs.
Fischer makes his return after winning gold at the WJHC. He should be well rested.
BU and Vermont oppose each other in a weekend set.
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 5 p.m.
Boston University (Lachance, Copponi) @ 5 p.m.
Vermont (Määttä, Münzenberger) @ 5 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 5 p.m.
All times are the same time and are also Queenstown time.
The London match is available for free on the OHL YouTube and Twitter (I refuse to call it X) feeds as the league’s Friday night featured game.
Tom Gazzola
·
I don’t think that this update will help Bowman. Hopefully Bowman has a more detailed update that will assist him before the deadline.
I’ve got to assume/presume that management and coaching staff have more detailed information than us, including timeline.
Bowman said the other day (in an interview with Spec) that he didn’t have an update on Kane but he admitted he needs certainty prior to the deadline. I’m pretty sure Bowman need about this new surgery a few days ago – he’s got more info that he’s telling us, must.
Soooo, did this knee injury just pop up, or was this known about beforehand? Seems odd to be doing the surgery now,
The thing that’s almost always underrated in sports is motivation. One team arrives successful and complacent, the other unsuccessful and desperate, you’ve got the makings for an upset.
We watch sports because of this. The best team on paper doesn’t always win. Desire and hustle can defeat skill and depth on occasion.
A fascinating example is this weekend’s Rams v Vikings playoff game. Logic would indicate with the game likely moving to a neutral site, the 14 win Vikings should be a prohibitive favorite against the 10 win Rams. But can you tell me the Rams won’t be extremely motivated to win this game for the citizens of LA ravaged by wildfires?
And then you’ve got the motivation of Minnesota’s HC wanting to beat LA’s HC, his former boss. The classic teacher vs pupil matchup.
Who would you pick? The better team or the more motivated team?
Before last night the Oilers & Penguins had met 7 times in the 2020s, with the Oil have won all 7 by at least 3 goals with a combined scoreline of, wait for it, 37-9. Last 2 meetings, both shutouts, with Pickard & then Skinner stopping 68/68=1.000.
I can only imagine the Pens were more than a little motivated to slay the dragon, & more than a little pumped when the puck started going in.
Not sure the comeback attempt was worth 27 minutes each from 29, 97, 14 & 2, not with the travel sked & the daunting fact that the Oil will face LAK, MIN, COL, & VAN in 4 different cities in a 6 day span next week, but that’s how things worked out.
“Not sure the comeback was worth..”
Indeed. I’m with you. This was Struddy’s angry response on the Got Yer Back podcast after the game: why run these horses so hard for a game that is probably lost?
I would have preferred to see the four starting lines rolling, working with the deficit, struggling against the tide, instead of non-stop Glimmer Twins/Nuclear Option. We know what that line does. This was a great opportunity to see if these lines can rise again – as they did against the Bruins. As they – or a version of them – must if they are to play into June this year.
Well said.
I like it when my team tries to win hockey games.
What trade pieces do the Oilers have for deadline acquisitions?
Later round draft picks?
I doubt Savoie or O’Reilly would be moved.
They have their 1st and 2nd rd picks in next year’s draft and the 2nd from STL this year, plus Lachance and Berezkin may be intriguing to other teams given the seasons they’re having currently.
Personally I’d have Akey, SOR and Savoie all as untouchable in any deal unless it was in package for a stud no-brainer return like Byram.
My sense going into the game last night was “pride before the fall” and I’d say that’s exactly what transpired.
They let the foot off the gas and relaxed looking back at their incredible run, and so weren’t ready for the start of the game.
The good news is that they turned it around fairly quickly, and went back to work. With a little more puck luck, they could have won the game.
That game doesn’t worry me at all.
Good perspective LT. I don’t need the home team to win every time to enjoy the game. One more chance to watch the savvy Sidney Crosby was more than enough entertainment for me.
A generational talent who plays with the crust of a grinder. And the very definition of a low maintenance superstar. What’s not to love about that?
Could the 4 Nations tourney with Sid and Connor be somewhat akin to Gretz and Super Mario in 87? That was the catalyst that took the Pens superstar to the winning championships level. Is it too much to hope for that McDavid is seated right next to Crosby in that locker room?
With all the surgeries, does Kane become our next Steve Austin?
It would be a miracle if he was available for the playoffs, let alone perform at his best for his contract year next season. It’s going to take even more time.
This is big because now Edmonton can use Kanes LTIR cap space.
If they knew this was the plan, they could have signed Bro and Holloway.
Holloway scored his 15th of the season last night…could hit 30.
I dropped my pudding today, hit my shoes.
The bigger issue was fitting in the contracts next season (Drai, Bouch extensions kicking in) and not this season, so I don’t think this is the case actually.
It gives you another season to win a championship with more talent on the roster. What do you mean this isn’t the case.
I agree they are more talented than their replacements on this current roster, just meant specifically wrt to finances that impacted the offer sheet decisions being based on next season and not this one so much. As in they could’ve found room to shoehorn those 2 contracts in this season but the big extensions next season would have made that very difficult.
We don’t know what Bouchard will sign for. If his play doesn’t improve, and he wants 10 million, I would certainly look at trade options.
Browns bonus is off the books next summer, you let Skinner walk, and trade Kane. There’s 11 million in cap space right there.
I absolutely think they could have matched on Holloway and Broberg.
I disagree that they realistically could have matched on both when looking at next year’s roster, and that is okay.
Yes the cap is increasing substantially but Drai’s raise takes care of that (which we all all very fine with). I would definitely not trade Bouch and based on his body of work am confident his game will round into form come playoffs and at the very least will rightfully command at least 9M aav, with Rishaug noting this recently on GYB as well. Even if trading him, the replacement should cost significant cap if you are getting an adequate player in return so it is not just free space.
Many other factors as well. Trade market or lack thereof for Kane depending on his recovery and limited NTC. Attaching assets to him to dump that money is very poor asset mgmt if it came to that. Yes let Skinner walk but replacing Brown adequately or resigning him (which I hope they try) will cost more cap than his current 1M take up a decent chunk of his expired 3M bonus this yr as well.
All of this to say that there are a lot of factors impacting next year’s roster and cap (e.g. Campbell’s buyout increasing to 2.3 M from 1.1 M this season) and still feel it wouldn’t have been realistic to match on both without substantially having to subtract from key parts of this team which as we see this year remain very strong and a top contender.
I also want to clarify that all that said of course I miss both players and wish they were on this team long term in a world with no cap, or at least keeping Holloway instead of signing Skinner, but the above opinion was based solely on where we stand currently with the decisions that were made.
Ekholm, Kulak, Broberg, Holloway, Henrique, Arvidsson, Kane would all have one year left on their contracts. Contracts with one year left are pretty tradeable.
This is my favourite quote you pull up from time to time. It sums up sports perfectly. A lot of the times the dice just don’t roll your way. Their high percentage chances went in, ours didn’t. Sometimes Draisaitl scores from his own blue line, sometimes it gets knocked off the line at the last second.
Ha! The Oilers also lost the game that Drai scored from his own end. Final score? 5-3.
I take your point all the same.
Penguins showed up to play a big league game of hockey; while Oilers seemed to think all they needed to do was show up.
Kudos for them coming back to make it a game. That’s almost as good as a win.
As part of Oilers official announcement on Kane’s completed knee surgery, the release stated this was unrelated to abdominal injuries/operation but as a result this rehab will be on pause during his 4-8 week recovery time for his knee.
It now seems 100% likely that his LTIR $ will be fully available for the remainder of the season and based on this timeline I’d have to think even playing at all in the playoffs is strongly in doubt unfortunately.
Perhaps this allows for more Alex Tuch discussions to occur now, which I would be more than fine with!
I’m still convinced had Coach K took a time out after the 3rd goal & switched the goalies the game might have ended up different.
This isn’t about Skinner per se , more of a calling out of the team as a whole.
I’m still bewildered that coach K just let it crash like that.
He’s done that at least one other time this season where I felt either a time out was warranted, or the goalie should have been pulled either because he wasn’t performing well or because the team needed a shake up wake up or both. Having said that, Knoblauch has been a successful hockey coach at levels much higher than I have or ever will be, so despite what I think, his decisions are likely rooted in a deeper understanding of the game than mine.
I believe his decision not to take a timeout was largely based on a TV timeout coming up very shortly – I believe he mentioned that in the post-game (and has in similar circumstances in the past).
@EdmontonOilers
#Oilers forward Evander Kane underwent successful knee surgery on Thursday in Edmonton & is expected to require four to eight weeks of recovery time.
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-oilers-issue-statement-regarding-evander-kane
Game of two parts. Aside from the first period, we were fine.
Yeah. Other than the 1st period Oilers won.
If one is going to make a list, should not the list be complete?
Bouchard was caught daydreaming on the first GA.
The team was not ready at the start of the game. Pittsburgh was out to exact a pound of flesh.
Last night looked like the time zone caught up to them.
Hey LT, I know nobody else will see this. But your dog looks somewhat like George Washington in that photo yesterday.
Anyway, back to business, IMO if Bowman could swindle Ivan Provorov & Matthew Olivier out of Columbus that would put them over the top. There’re plenty of other options. But in my mind those two would seal the deal.
If they could pull Jokiharju and Tuch out of Buffalo it would be my favorite deadline maybe ever.
Have a feeling the Oilers will have trouble winning any bidding wars. Seem very thin on tradeable assets.
I have always liked Tuch and would love for the Oilers to acquire him… depending on who had to go the other way.
Hard to work up too much angst over one game, but it is what we have to talk about today.
It’s been awhile, but the team’s habit of slow starts bit them in the ass again last night. Stu Skinner is part of the team. If they start on time, they win the game.
Wonder why KK didn’t make a goalie switch after the third goal. If he does, there is a good chance the Oilers win in OT.
The bottom three lines got nothing done last night. They need to be better and more consistent after a good game in Boston.
Running McDrai for 26 minutes is a bit concerning. Hopefully doesn’t affect their performance in the next game against Chicago
Are slow starts a habit? The Oilers had scored first in at least 7 games prior to last night (it may have been 8 or 9).
Seems this has been the exception recently, no?
To me the game came down to poor finishing again. They had plenty of chances to score, two on ones, but shot under 7%. Could have easily won that one. It’s really the story of this season so far, the stats look very good otherwise
To my eye they also don’t support the puck well enough in many games. Either in giving the puck carrier some clean pass options, or providing traffic for point shots
Can’t win them all, at least the Knights also lost. A little worrying that the Kings have 3 games in hand 2 points back. Most likely we play them again in playoffs, but they may have home ice
Until the Kings beat this team, I’l think of them as little more than annoying gnats.
My eye sees the same level of puck support as you do in many games. Without having access to some of the analytics sites that can possibly back me up, I swear the Oilers are a terrible team on odd man rushes, which may be because of the lack of clean pass options. I am confounded by the lack of traffic for point shots because it seems that when they do get traffic in front, good chaos ensues and they either get a great scoring chance or they score.
Rocking chair seized up a little but certainly not the angry chair of the DOD.
I see Hyman’s doing a little business in the hometown buying the Bulldogs. I’ve heard it’s basically a full arena every night so I doubt Hamilton gets the team back.
https://oilerhockey.com/article/19454
Unfortunately, we could use a hospital over a new arena but that’s another story.
As they say “burn the tape” and let’s move on to Chicago.
Looks like I picked an excellent game to sleep through.
Me too! Although I was in a late work meeting so missed both.
I’m working, building the ice roads, NE of Yellowknife. I listened to the radio broadcast, and when I returned to camp our TV system was down.
So, I saved myself some visual heartache.
There are always games like this, so, let’s move on and enjoy the next great win.
Well said.
After the first period I busied myself elsewhere, barbequing steaks and sitting down with the family for a fine dinner. I did watch the third period hoping for the comeback. Oh well.
It was an *entertaining* game. If you like watching McD & Draisaitl, you would have been happy. (They were on the ice far too much, to my mind.)
Think I nodded off during Principe intro – if i’m not on the edge of my seat that couch can take me any moment!