Find yourself a teammate like Corey Perry. His veteran presence last night turned a night that began with tension into a hockey comedy on ice. If I had to pick a movie character that reflects Corey Perry’s on-ice presence, it would be “Curly” (the Jack Palance character from City Slickers) and it would be hilarious.
Lines like “I crap bigger than you” and “day ain’t over yet” (in answer to ‘hey Curly, killed anyone today?’) are a perfect fit for gunslinger Perry. He’s a beauty. I wasn’t prepared to enjoy him in Oilers threads as much as I do. I guess that’s part of his appeal.
The Athletic article today is about Kris Knoblauch and the coaching staff finding answers on defense and the challenges ahead. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: ANA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA, BOS, PIT, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 3-1-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN, COL, VAN (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: WAS, VAN, BUF, SEA, DET (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- Overall expected results: 8-4-2, 18 points in 14 games
- January result: 8-3-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 30-15-3, 63 points in 48 games
Edmonton is on pace for 51 wins and the top of the Pacific Division is one point away (with no games in hand). In the last 10 games, the Oilers (7-3-0) have gained five standings points on division leader Vegas Golden Knights (4-5-1) after a month of Sundays getting nowhere. This could be the year.
THE NUMBERS
I promise to talk about more than one player, but want to take a moment to recognize possibly the best pass I’ve ever seen. It was a Roger Federer passing shot on a backhand that went many many feet (and past two Oilers) before landing perfectly on the stick of Zach Hyman. It was a transcendental hockey moment, like discovering the Bajoran wormhole for the first time. I was in shock when I saw it, only slightly less so the second and third time. Jesus, Mary and Joseph what a play, and credit for Zach Hyman for cashing while everyone else was in shock.
Leon has already signed his contract, can you imagine the price if he was mere months from free agency?
The HDSC’s had some interesting leaders last night. Hyman had six, celebrating his new look and better vision. Noah Philp had four, and that’s a nice total (as is the 11 minutes) for a player who looks to be laboring a little on the backcheck. He needs to show well, and the coaching staff needs to give him chances. Last night the playing time was there and he responded.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored (huzzah!) and had an assist, but the five-on-five points-60 (0.96) is the worst on the team among forwards. I see people worrying about Vasily Podkolzin’s offense but he is at 1.9 points-60 five-on-five. Jeff Skinner is at 1.59 points-60. I think the coaching staff needs to have a long look at what is happening on left wing five-on-five before the deadline. If they don’t trust Skinner, then it might be an idea to move Adam Henrique to the McDavid line.
Skinner got six minutes on the power play last night and had three HDSC’s, plus another at five-on-five. His scoring rates are reasonable (eighth among forwards, and he isn’t playing with the Glimmer Twins) and his goal share (15-17) isn’t terrible if you take that damnable start with McDavid (1-7 goals in less than an hour) away. I hope we see an easing of the freeze for Skinner. He might be the guy they’re looking for and he’s on the roster.
I thought all of the defensemen played well, Pickard strong when the game was in doubt. This is an impressive team.
The Lowdown hits at noon today, Sports 1440. We’ll be wall to wall on Oilers coverage, with Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast giving us insight into the game and the last two contests between Oilers and Canucks. Declan Krueger will have his Declanations list and we’ll be heavy duty on the NFL playoffs (I’m hoping for Eagles-Bills in the Super Bowl). I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
I know Colorado is taking a lot of flak for this trade but I don’t hate it for them.
I don’t really know what Rantanen is for the rest of his career – elite, Top 10 NHL player for the next 5-10 years with of draisaitl $? Great 1st line player? How much of his offense is driven by playing with MacKinnon/Makar? If COL wasn’t certain he was worth Drai $, they did reasonably well to acquire a good piece they can probably extend after next year and some assets to help acquire another impact player at the deadline.
I still think Carolina comes out best out of this trade, and they probably have the cap/outlook to extent him long term if they want to.
I think we always knew the risk of Hall’s game was that injuries and his style of play could shorten his peak, and seeing him now as a good 3rd liner who can slide up if he’s paired with skill is somewhat sad. Hope he still has several good years and can get the most out of his remaining years, and is around for a long time still.
Chicago essentially trading away Taylor Hall for ~$1M of cap space this year and their own 3rd round pick isn’t a great return, I would have thought they’d be able to get more value for hall, but maybe that’s the market with a tight cap
I think it was Frank Seravalli who mentioned it in his recap of the 3 way trade but he mentioned that was even more wild names floating around the air tonight.
The only three names that I could think of that “could” be bigger splashes than Rantanen would be Mitch Marner or Sam Reinhart or Connor Bedard.
Can you imagine if the 3 way trade was Bedard to COL, Necas and Drury plus picks to CHI and Rantanen to CAR instead?
Chicago would have needed way more than Necas and Drury to trade Bédard. Colorado would have had to send them 5 first round picks just to get the conversation started. And even then Chicago might have turned them down.
Haha
Best case scenario: Rantanen with no “hometown discount” to Carolina, asks for an 8 year $15M AAV. Enters the UFA market and is signed by CHI
Friedman: “Also: I know there’s a lot of fan/media hope for Sidney Crosby in Colorado this season, but I’d be shocked. I’ve been shocked before, but that would really do it.”
Now THAT is a wild name.
I think the reaction to this trade is a bit over-the-top.
Not to pick on Kraz here but isn’t picking up a 24 yo rising star exactly how you find one?
There’s a lot of beatdown of the Avs happening tonight and while that’s always a fun time, in the case of many posters it seems to be happening solely because of HH’s support for the team. But he also supports Carolina and all the other contenders so I don’t understand why people are skewing the conversation.
There’s real danger in thinking of trades as single isolated events, unconnected from whatever else the org is trying to accomplish.
Firstly, they couldn’t sign the player, so I ask you… is this trade better than losing him for nothing? Is overpaying him and further crippling yourself an actual better solution?
Necas is a real player, is young, is stupid fast along with the skill and is cheaper. So while he is not Rantanen, he’s not chopped liver. The success of this trade from the Avs pov depends on what they do next. What do they do with the extra cap space?
When you have a team of highly paid vets, LT will tell you draft picks become like gold. They’re not only trade capital but they replenish the coffers with potential value contracts going forward. Those two picks were pretty key to the long term plans of the Avs, pretty sure.
Are they preparing to activate Landy? If you hear that they are between now and the deadline, do you feel a little differently about this trade?
I’m sorry to rant but tonight seems more about dog-piling than it does clear thinking.
I said earlier, the Avs clearly gave up the best player but did so for cap concerns, to get younger, and spread out talent/build depth. I think it was a fine trade but the Avs are worse in the near term. JMO
I thought yours was a reasonable take.
Avs did what they had to do and likely got the best deal they could depending on what they think of Van’s misfits.
At this moment right now, they’re clearly not as good but they are going to be far better than they would be losing the player for nothing. Let’s see what they do with the cap space and what happens with Landeskog.
Or they could have just paid Rantanen what he wanted, regardless of whether it was more than MacK.
Then they wouldn’t have lost him for nothing, and his extension would have been done months ago.
Its rare that we find a fan of the Nurse contract on this blog, but good to hear you’re a big supporter.
And in those conversations it’s always about what the Oilers could’ve done with the extra cap space. Lets see what the Avs do with theirs before making sweeping categorical judgments on this trade.
Isn’t that the fair thing to do?
Your rant would be more compelling if Necas was actually 24 … he’s 26.
Landeskog is broken. He hasn’t played in three years.
Nichushkin can’t stay on the ice either.
Draft picks are magic beans. Ask LT how “5 assets” worked out.
Rantanen is a playoff beast, and elite regular season monster who has put up 100 point seasons and scored 50+ goals.
You can rant all you want, but the Avs became an easier team to play against tonight.
Or put it this way … would you be happy with a return of Necas, Drury and a couple of picks for Leon?
Leon is better than Rantanen you say? Fine … would an extra first round pick make you feel better?
#payyoureliteplayers
I actually really like Necas but he is clearly a tier below Rantanen. And he is only two years younger than Rantanen. They couldn’t sign him? I think they just didn’t want to pay him Draisaitl money but Rantanen has proven he is in that realm.
Also in the salary cap era name one team that has been better off short term or long term. trading a superstar for cap reasons/creating more depth.
These types of trades tend to have a profound affect on locker rooms and team chemistry as well. Good luck explaining this one to MacKinnon or Makar.
And also the fit with MacKinnon and Necas I believe will be awkward because they have overlapping skill sets. Where as Rantanen is a more cerebral player that can read off MacKinnon and make him better
Nobody’s gonna remember Nils Juntorp!
Condors lose in a SO – Wright, Griffith and Savoie – nary a shot on net (Savoie bobbled making his move).
Savoie did snipe a goal on a 2 on 1 in-game.
Condors with a full 4 minute PP and a full 2-minute 5 on 3 – they remain with zero home PPG this season…..
Chicago trades to reacquire their own third round Draft pick. Is having the option to tender an offer sheet the reason why they had to pay so much in retained contract?
BleacherReport has an interesting list of 2025 RFA’s.
Bouchard’s name is on it.
They’d have to offer 10 million for the Oilers to walk away from Bouch. I’d absolutely take Chicago’s next 2 first round picks (unprotected).
We now know it’s a 2025 pick, which doesn’t play into a 2025 RFA offer sheet. Would be a 2026 pick involved in such a case.
A 3rd round pick is of zero consequence to a Bouchard offer sheet.
Diablo- I agree.
Munny 2.0- Thanks for the clarification/update. I was triggered by the amount that CHI paid in this trade for the pick… it’s weird imo.
OriginalPouzar- A team having it’s own 3rd Round is a requirement for 4/7 offer sheet compensation levels including the price range that Bouchard would likely fall into contractually. Unless I’m missing what you’re saying.
Reminds me of Guerin to Boston for Anson Carter
Hopefully COL doesn’t pull a Hemmer with that pick
Just remembered the dreadlocked winger song the bear used to play.
The first that came over in the deal was used to draft Hemsky.
How about Nicholls for Ciger and Todd?
Damphousse for Corson, Gilchrest and some magic beans?
Weight for Reasoner, Hecht and Horacek?
Actually – this reminds me of Ron Francis for John Cullen.
Cullen was a force when he was traded. That was not looked on as a bad trade till years after. You’re basically saying that you expect the wheels to fall off the Necas train in two years.
Cullen was a good player. Francis was a legend.
Francis was not a legend at the time of the trade and Cullen was better than just good. Cullen’s career tanking two years later is why the trade is poorly perceived. It wasn’t that way in the moment of the trade.
In fact at the time of the trade, Cullen was a first line winger and Francis was brought in to be the 2nd line center.
Edit: in fact in the next full season Francis had 54 points in 70 games and Cullen had 77 in 77. In the year they were traded Cullen had 110 and Francis 87.
Francis then followed that up with one 80+ season, two 90+ seasons and two 100+ seasons. And two Cups.
John Cullen was out of the league by the time Francis returned to Carolina, and played 6 more seasons for them.
He finished his career with 1700+ points, including 549 goals.
Cullen put up a grand total of 550 points in his career.
Legend.
If Hall is worth negative cap value + a 3rd round pick … does a team that steps up with an offer of a 2nd round pick get Marchand?
I don’t understand what Chicago was thinking here.
I guess they were thinking about Taylor Hall what Peter Chiarelli was thinking about Taylor Hall.
I love that there is a legit challenger to Florida now in the East. I hope the Nucks trade Miller to NJ now, setting up a gauntlet on Toronto, NJ or the Canes to get through.
I’m surprised at how badly Hawks are doing on this trade. So eight and a half years after the Hall for Larsson deal, Hall has such value that he can’t be traded at half retained on $6M and is instead a money-saving throw-in on a larger deal. And… its probably good advice he doesn’t sign a long term rental on his Raleigh hotel room either.
Summarizing!
Stonehouse sniped his 7th of the year and added an assist along with a team-high 5 SOG.
O’Reilly and Nicholl each had an assist.
Day permitted four goals on 31 SOG in a loss.
Clattenburg (returning from suspension), Määttä, Münzenberger, Copponi, Lachance, Fischer and Berry were denied the gift of soup.
Yes! Vegas lose in reg.
Second best news of the day!
Oilers play new look Avs Feb 7th on their last game before 4 Nations Face off.
Oilers get to see the Rantanen led Hurricanes on March 1st.
Man seems like Colorado is trying to outsmart themselves. Necas is a good player but Rantanen is undeniably elite and still only 28. Good luck finding another Rantanen in his prime.
Poor Nate is going to have to carry around two pylons as linemates now.
Necas has the highest single speed recorded by NHL Edge this season, and ranks 3rd behind MacKinnon and McDavid in all the other speed categories they show. Necas could possibly be destined to MacKinnon’s wing. It might not mesh, but not because they are slow.
Yep going to be interesting to see where they deploy Necas… 2C or 1W.
Or… are JT or even Gino Malkin in play?
Oilers timed the Draisaitl/McDavid contracts much better IMO. Easy decision to pay Drai more than McDavid when it’s only for a year.
MacKinnon makes 12.6 until 2031 and they didn’t want to pay Rantanen more than that. Rantanen wants Draisaitl money, which is understandable with the cap going up (I would still take Drai all day long over Rantanen, though).
As it’s not a sign and trade, and Necas only has 1.5 years left at 6.5, there’s a tonne of uncertainty in this deal for both the avs and the canes. Blackhawks save a few hundred grand in real dollars and get a 3rd round pick. They’re the only ones with certainty here.
Rantanen is better than most people realize. But he’s still no Drai.
Drai has a Hart, maybe a second after this year, is the best passer on the planet, has scored 50+ goals three times and counting, and at one point in last year’s playoffs, had the highest career adjusted points per game of any player in NHL playoff history.
I can understand why COL balked at giving Rantanen Draisaitl money. (Especially when they’ll have to pay Makar a boatload in 2026).
Don’t profess to know how this is going to work out. Necas has cooled off back to last year’s rate (only 18 pts in last 27 games after 37 in the first 22).
However Rantanen has 35 even strength points on NHL.com and Necas has 33. Because the NHL website counts empty net points as even strength, my guess is that Necas’ 5 on 5 production has been better, and Colorado could definitely improve in that facet
I wonder if Necas is going to be able to live up to MacK’s expectations? Rantanen was an elite player. How long before things become toxic there if Necas doesn’t produce the way Rantanen could in all situations?
Can we trade for Sid??? 🙏🏽
From the Steve Dangle Podcasts, it sounds like Sid stays in Pit as long as he wants. The minute Sid says he’d like to explore other teams, Dubas can get out of the handcuffs but until then, the Penguins are starting down a long dark spiral to a full rebuild.
Sid joins Oilers right now and he ends up with 5-6 cups which cements his spot with the big dogs.
That’s Roman cement.
He’d have to move out of Mario’s pool house though.
@frank_seravalli
Trade call underway now. Full deal:
To #RaiseU
: Mikko Rantanen, Taylor Hall
To #GoAvsG
: Martin Necas, Jack Drury, 2025 2nd Round Pick, 2026 4th Round Pick (all from Carolina)
To #Blackhawk
: 2025 3rd Round Pick (their own returned from Carolina), 50% of Rantanen’s salary
The Hawks lose a player and retain and all they get is a 3rd? lol
That’s the head scratcher for me.
From a cap perspective:
Colorado picks up: Necas $6.5M and $1.725M Drury but subtracts Rantanen’s $9.25M
Net: -$1.025M off cap
Carolina picks up Rantanen @50% $4.625M and Hall $6M subtracting Necas and Drury
Net: +$2.4M to cap
Chicago subtracts Hall’s $6M but adds Rantanen at 50% $4.625
Net: -$1.375M
I think Carolina might be $900k over the cap right now so someone may be on waivers tomorrow?
lol – Taylor Halls value has tanked from Adam Larsson, to throw in on a 3-way deal
The scuttlebutt I saw was that Chicago was trying to trade Hall’s $6M at 50% retained for a 3rd rounder. So instead of retaining just $3M, they retained $4.625M but got their own 3rd rounder and got rid of the entirety of Hall’s cap hit.
It won’t affect any RFA offer sheets because it’s too late in the year and all RFAs are signed but it’s still a high 3rd rounder.
Maybe Chicago is doing him a favor. Maybe Carolina wants him.
Hall potentially can make a miracle bounce back, if anyone can.
Unless he’s been injured badly.
that’s what I was thinking. why get involved for a 3rd ….
They’re also saving real dollars here by dumping hall. Even with the reality of Rantanen retention (try saying that 10 times fast). So a high 3rd and money is the answer. And the Rantanen contact is up at the end of the season. Sounds fair to me.
I wasn’t commenting on the fairness of todays deal.
Just reminiscing about days past when we were all bemoaning how we traded Hall for *just* Larsson.
Terrible, horrible trade.
.
Necas is a center. He was drafted as a center, and his best year prior to this one was as a center. He is on record saying he isn’t happy playing wing. I don’t think that’s the only reason the Avs made the deal, but had to play a big role.
Necas was a center.
Lots of players get drafted as a center and end up a winger.
He’s only played center for one season in the NHL, and only part of that season as he played quite a bit with Kotkaniemi.
The Avs probably play him a 2C to start but he’s barely played the position in the NHL and seems to be just awful at faceoffs – like below 40%.
Man that Avs trade is ugly for the avs
necas is good but rode a huge heater early this season and Rantanen was gonna have his 3rd 100 point season in a row
With the cap reportedly skyrocketing gonna be hard to compete if you’re not allowed to pay anyone more than Mackinnon
How is Mittelstadt going to like playing 3C?
COL solved their issues with lack of centre depth, I’ll give them that. Might have created more issues than they solved.
Well that’s why they traded for Necas is because Mittlestadt can’t play 2c
Mittelstadt played 1C in Buffalo when Tage Thompson was out, and hit close to a point a game.
We’ll see how good MacKinnon really is now
They’ve lost Landeskog and Rantanen in consecutive years. They are no longer contenders.
Nope. Enjoy the rest of that contract mackinnon.
No one returning for the depleted Condors.
Emily Kaplan has the Hawks getting their own third round pick back as part of the deal.
One would think they’re getting substantially more than just a 3rd out of this.
Maybe Chicago is planning on offer sheeting someone this summer and needed their own third round pick to do it 😉. A third rounder is required for many of the offer sheet ranges up to ~$11.5 million.
Guessing that’s the case too
I doubt it’d be Bouchard though given they are all in on Seth Jones playing right defense at $9.5 million for each of the next 5 seasons.
Can’t possibly be any plans at this point as no one knows who will be available. But does look like they’re keeping their options open if something comes up.
Thus my wink emoji when I posted it.
Yum
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
·
10m
And… not sure how to process yet, but impeccable source said that this Rantanen deal was not the biggest thing on the table in the last 48 hours.
Living in a Van down by the couver…
Greg Wyshynski
@wyshynski
·
11m
Drury instead of Kotkaniemi to the Avs proves, definitively, that there is no Finn maximum in the NHL for individual teams. The Hurricanes are free to add several more Finns without concern if they deem it necessary.
If its Necas and Drury in, Avs have opened up about $1.25M in AAV, although I think they’ve been in LTIR since day one. Maybe this was partly done is to ease the activation of Miles Wood. Question is, do they make another move?
CAR definitely looks like they could make additional moves.
The ESPN crew on the Vegas-Dallas game is expecting the AVs are not done.
They’re actually doing the Captain Obvious thing live and on TV? Ohh, Disney.
Colorado has raised their floor but lowered their ceiling.
Theyll be a very good team that makes the playoffs for a long time, but I think they’ll be one superstar short of true contender status.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
·
1m
Think the Avalanche are getting some picks, too. More trickling in
Avalanche get a 2025 second round pick and a 2026 fourth round pick.
Oh I spoke too soon then.
The 4th makes them a perennial Stanley Cup favorite.
It would be hilarious if Carolina failed to re-sign Rantanen.
I mean, as an opposing fan I hope this trade turns out poorly for both teams.
THERE ARE THREE TEAMS!!!
Sorry, sorry. I had a
KardashianCardassian flashback there. Excuse me, I have to go shave my head.Blackhawks being used to retain half on Rantanen
Sounds like Drury also going to COL and possibly Kotkaniemi going to Chitown…
Necas certainly isn’t going to center the Avs second line – well, I hope they try that – he’s a winger.
As good a season as Necas is having, its his first, Rantanen the best player in this trade and its not close.
Rantanen wanted Drai money I think!
Yep. The Avs definitely looking for cap savings/ cost certainty. Losing Rat is a huge hit. He is a top 20 forward in the league.
Necas is currently tied for 11th in league scoring.
He will score more in the Colorado system.
Wait, do you think Colorado got better?
Top 5-7……. in my opinion.
I’d guess this eliminates one possible trade partner for the Can*cks and JT Miller
Necas will certainly centre the AVs second line.
Not being able to play his natural position in Carolina is why he had previously requested a trade.
In Necas they add a right shot 2C and in Kotkaniemi, they add a left shot 3C.
I am all for the Avs playing a winger and non-center at 2C.
You are correct Rantanen is easily the best player in this deal, what a coup by Tulsky and Dellow.
Happy to see the Avs get weaker with this deal, what a doozy.
If the Taylor Hall-Tyler Dellow Carolina Hurricanes meet and beat the Oilers in the finals, the irony might be too much to take
Necas to the Avalanche
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
·
5s
Still sorting out details, but sounds like both Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Martin Necas are going to AVs from Canes as part of the trade for Mikko Rantanen.
Again, very complex deal and trade call has not yet been conducted.
The trade kinda depends how a person values Kotkaniemi. Avs get better and deeper in terms of players, but (at least for now) worse in terms of contracts. I’d rather have Rantanen at $9M+ than Necas and Kotkaniemi at $11.5M.
I thought the Carolina Kotkaniemi signing was bonkers – pure revenge. It was a bad contract at the time, and still is. His 82-game average is 34 points and he doesn’t appear to be improving.
Colorado does address the depth issue, and hopes that Rantanen was getting zoomed by MacKinnon (and that someone else can take that place). And hopes that Landeskog is coming back soon.
Yeah…I was wondering if this might have been triggered by news that Landeskog is close.
He’s been skating with the team for quite a while.
Friedman says that KK is not part of it.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
·
4m
Jack Drury will go to Colorado
More of a center than Necas.
A soon to be 25 year old 4C.
Doesn’t seem to add much to the trade. Although it’s a better contract than Kotkaniemi.
Drury has good hockey heritage. His Dad Ted played 414 NHL games, with the Ducks being his longest stop. His uncle Chris of course won a cup with these same Avalanche for whom he will now play.
Elliotte reporting Hall and Rantanen to the Hurricanes
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
BREAKING: Sources tell Daily Faceoff
Avalanche are in the process of trading Mikko Rantanen to Canes
Sounds like this is a complex three-way deal and I believe Taylor Hall is also involved in the deal going to Carolina from Chicago.
Bonkers. There is no way Colorado wins a Rantanen trade.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
At this time, there is no extension for Rantanen as part of the deal
ESPN reporting Martin Necas is part of the return for Rantanen.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
We will see how this is all going to look soon…but the Hurricanes are trading for Taylor H
Just catching up on other sporting news.
ONE anonymous person did not vote Ichiro into the HOF. Someone needs to ‘out’ this person so that their voting privileges are taken away.
So glad that the PWHA votes are disclosed – we can see how the members voted. I think the Hart will be a close one between Leon and Helly.
The hottest teams in the league top 10 are Caps, Oilers, and Canes. If they can keep rolling the can move into the top 2 or 3
Since Dec 1 they are 4th in SCF%, 1st in HDCF%, 1st in GF%, but 12th in GA and 11th in HDGA. They are 16th in HDSV% and 15th in SV%
And the Oil heavily outplayed the Caps without McD
The world junior players, court case come to trial in April and is expected to run for 8 weeks (CBC story). Dube and McLeod are having poor seasons in Russia and are under contract until May.
Legal and moral issues aside, is this a unique time to sign low with Carter Hart, McLeod and Dube it would quickly fix that mid 20s cohort within the Oilers – given they are found not guilty.
We have a history of – either the team of second chance or we don’t have a moral compass.
it does feel like an opportunity to add to the team.
I’ve long stopped caring about sports not having any type of moral compass so sign me up!
Carter Hart for sure if they’re exonerated. Would make all kinds of sense.
You cant put legal and moral issues aside. Besides I would bet Bettman would not allow it. Half of your fan base is women and that sends a very poor message. Need to wait like everybody else to see if they indeed are guilty or not.
Yes to guilty or not. No to half the fanbase are women, no way that’s the case
100% of the fan base have women as mothers. Many have sisters, daughters, friends, wives, GFs who are women. Some have granddaughters who are women.
I was happy with signing Perry despite everything, because he does things unique on this roster. Most rosters really. A well built team with good coaching can make use of a guy like him, he can still score and is excellent from the circles down. He does things the rest of them should be emulating
The trick is that you can’t have too many one dimensional players that need specific support, or it gets unmanageable and the team can become unbalanced, unless the GM is really on it and everyone stays healthy
After a good and proper Power Win I’ll put up PW data, I have revised it to Nov 1
Power wins are by 2 or more goals, no EN. Clear Losses are also by 2 or more, no EN
Leads Lost/Comebacks are counted as the team being up or down the first 2 goals of a game
CB-LL – the higher the number the better, higher than average Comebacks indicates team weakness because falling behind too often
The teams I’m tracking: Oilers, Jets, Knights, Kings, Stars, Wild, Avs, Devils, Bolts, Panthers, Caps, Leafs, Canes
Power Wins – Devils 14, Oilers 13 (2nd most tied 3 ways)
Wins – Avs 13, Oilers 7 (7th)
Clear Losses – Kings 3 (tied), Oilers 4 (3rd tied two ways)
Losses – Knights 4 (tied 4 ways), Oilers 7 (7th tied 3 ways)
Win% Reg – Caps .568, Oilers .541 (tied 3rd two ways)
Win% All – Oilers .676 tied first with the Caps
OT Games – Caps 9, Oilers 6 (tied 4th most)
Comebacks – 6 teams have 0, Oilers 4 for the most, average 1
Leads Lost – 6 teams have 0, Oilers 4 for the most, average 1
CB-LL – Oilers 4-4 = 0 (5th)
NST
5v5 FF% – Canes 57.93, Oilers 53.83 (3rd)
5v5 GF% – Kings 59.13, Oilers 55.06 (3rd)
5v5 HDCF% – Oilers 57.47, Bolts 56.07 (2nd)
5v5 HDGF% – Kings 63.08, Oilers 57.29 (3rd)
5v5 SH% – Oilers 9.27 (3rd), Average 8.79
5v5 SV% – Oilers .910 (11th), Average .917
5v5 HDSH% – Oilers 19.11 (6th), Average 18.39
5v5 HDSV% – Oilers .824 (tied 5th), Average .819
5v5 GF – Oilers 87 (1st)
5v5 GA – Oilers 71 (7th)
5v5 Goal Diff – Caps 25, Oilers 16 (3rd)
The Oilers aren’t quite as strong as last reg season even though they are winning still. I thought revising to Nov 1 might bump them up more than it did
SH% has recovered some, SV% as well but it remains at the low end for these teams. The Oilers have the 4th least HDCA in the league at NST. Their PPG/GF% is 22.73 which is 2nd lowest, meaning they aren’t as reliant as many teams on their PP for goals, which is good for playoffs. The highest are Jets 37.29, Bolts 29.37 and Panthers 29.27
The Kings are lowest at 18.95, they might be a tougher out than last playoffs with their 5v5 scoring and goals against which is lowest at 47. If their goalies can hold up who delivering at the top of these teams. So finish first in the Pacific Oilers
Since Nov 1 league wide their PP is 4th, PK 10th. Now that they are shooting better given they suppress HDCA very well as far as NST says, and are finishing better, the wildcard remains goalies, it’s the weakest metric and has lead as I see it to having so many games that were less in control than should be with these players, or were lost by a goal where the Oilers have more 1G losses than many of the 13 teams
Last nights game is a great example of how they can play. SH% was 17.6 and Pick SV% .923, and they won handily, as I think they should in a lot if not most of games. If the goalies can play at level higher in ranking compared to the goalies of the 13 teams in particular, they would be a beast these playoffs
If they don’t, I expect a roller coaster like last year. They really need them both to stay healthy, or might need a Ken Dryden out of body experience for Rod
Need a playoff scenario in which Vegas gets eliminated in the first round by not the Oilers. I’m not scarred of the Kings or any team in the Central.
To me there are more teams posing a strong threat than last season. Jets Kings and Knights could be challenging, the first two have stronger goaltending than the Oilers currently as well
That’s what we were told about Vancouver, Dallas, and Florida last spring. Skinner & Pickard got the Oilers to seventh game. Stop with the goalie whining.
Corey Perry has become one of my favorite players on the team.
I had him in waiver wire discussions in fall….
Rumor is that Brad Marchand *might* be available for a 2nd rounder and a cost controlled young player…
Dreaming but … Oilers could do it if Savoie, 2nd and Janmark are sent back to even out the cap hits whilst using Kane’s LTIR dollars.
Also that choke on Nick Cousins should get Marchand a 1 game suspension?
Yikes. Hard pass.
Oilers cannot trade Savoie for another old forward.
Can only trade Savoie if they get another young, long term piece.
Marchand still doing Marchand things. Took his glove off last night to grab another player’s throat.
Ladies and gentlemen, the Captain of the Boston Bruins…
Hall for a 3rd
McCarron who was 17/29 on the draw last night. Plays center and wing, huge, hits, fights, and Lauzon who is a beef 3rd pairing defender for 2 4ths and Phil Kemp.
I would love it if Hall came back to the Oilers for this playoff run and maybe beyond. Feels like a wrong righted. Good karma.
Marchand & Perry on the same line would be… something.
I wouldn’t offer Savoie though.
I don’t think Boston would want a winger – they need help at centre, so I can see the ask being a decent centre prospect for Marchand (aka – Sam O’Reilly).
If he hits the market, he’ll be the most impactful player available. He’s still producing and his gamesmanship is still high end. There’s no question about his ability to produce when it matters.
He would make the Oilers substantially better.
I value winning a Cup above everything else. I’d have no problem if they trade O’Reilly for Marchand.
As an old timer, it would bring back the vibe of Linesman and Tikkanen on the 80’s Oilers.
Marchand and Perry stirring it up so the opponents are too distracted to focus on just winning the games would be … entertaining.
Per Tony B on Perry: 5 PTS, +9 over 10 games to begin the calendar year.
Wow, pretty good.
I was going to comment on Perry yesterday and how he has impressed me the past few weeks, and then he goes and has an even better game last night. Someone should make a gif of his faces on the bench after he suckered Blueger into his penalty. What a leader they added when they signed him. Thank you, Kenny.
And its been useful having him on the roster with Kane out. They’re not the exact same player obviously, but they both have wonderful qualities after the whistle, I can’t believe I’m saying this after two decades of hating on his ass, but he has grown into one of my favorite players on the team.
He also looks like he could keep playing a few more years if he chose to do so.
You left me a very thoughtful reply on a post I made a few days ago after I claimed that the league was run by dinosaurs. Thanks for that. I figured I’d reply here.
I absolutely agree that we’re dealing with a systems or human-organization (or lack thereof) issue in how the league is administrated. While much of what we see can be attributed to an emergent property of collections of humans in a complex system, being a chaotic consensus of interests creating suboptimal outcomes, I believe the the particular suboptimal outcome we see (beyond questionable refereeing), is due to a lack of attention to systems/leadership/transparency/diligence rather than a concentration on a progressive theme and simply not executing. In that respect, I’d claim that the league is run by ‘dinosaurs’ given that what we see, outside of a collection of independent progressive moves (second referee, no more fighting, no more headshots, etc) that aren’t wrapped into a coherent overarching progressive theme. I’d suggest that if this were the case, we’d see something far more similar to the other major sports leagues. Instead, we often see two steps forward and then 3 steps back.
Hey, thank you for the response!
I can completely understand where you are coming from, and it is very likely that the differences between the leagues can be attributed to whatever mandate the League has chosen. I think though that laying that at the feet of competing interests is speculative, as all leagues have the same constraint of multiplicity of interest. Not to mention, we have no real idea of the NHL’s overarching philosophy or mandate. They very well may have one and are executing on it with what they perceive to be success. Could be too that the league is opaque on this matter to avoid criticism, especially when it is applied to specific events.
But I think the problem lies deeper than that.
If you were creating a sport or a game… what would be your over-riding philosophy for how rules should be created, how they should be adjudicated and how penalties for breaking the rules be enforced?
I suspect (it’s not really my field of study, although it clearly touches on everyone’s field of study) that human thought’s starting points (and the vectors of thought traveled from those points) on how we address those questions are likely fallacious and invalid.
As an aside, I don’t really buy the phrase “Chaos of consensus.” If there was consensus there would be no chaos and vice versa. But I get what you’re saying.
Another thing I was wrong about (so far).
I was not a fan of the Perry signing.
He has been excellent for most of the season. Shame on me.
I think the other benefit is that, supposing a Kane return, Corey acts as a kind of guardrail on ego or attitude. I don’t mean to accuse Kane of anything, but if at any time for any reason Kane has to be called out, or called in, not many people around the league could manage that. Perry can.
Sometimes groups have such a big presence, that nothing ever needs to be said. I think this group is such a group. Who are you going to show ego to, or with on this team? Perry is for sure part of that group, and can do exactly as you say. But imagine showing ego and attitude in the presence of Hyman, or Nuge, or Henrique. Or mcdavid or drai, or Nurse, or ek. Not sure youd get much traction. Even guys like Kulak who wants to be here or brown, or janmark. No traction to be had there… Bouch? Doesnt seem like a rabble rouser. Philp seems pretty humble.
Such a group of professionals. Most of whom came here or stayed here by their own choice.
Then again, Im not in the room, so what do I know.
When Connor is flying into the O-zone, it terrifies the opposing D-men. One thing that struck me last night is how Leon must also terrify the opposition-D, but in a completely different way. He sloooows the game down, holding the puck usually at the right half-wall. If you’re a Dman, you can’t really rush him because he’s so good at protecting the puck. If you try he’ll swat you away with one hand or spin by you driving toward the slot or make a pass to the lane you just vacated. So you wait for it, knowing that he sees everything on the ice, where his teammates are going, things that the D can’t see. And then he makes passes that no one else can see – that no one else in the league can make – from his forehand or backhand. If nothing is opening up, Leon is patience, he’ll drift a bit higher up in the O-Zone or toward the center, waiting and waiting. Now he has new pass options and he can fire a quick snap shot against the goalie’s pads to create net front chaos. The only chance you really have is to hope he makes a bad drop or cross ice pass, except that he doesn’t make those any more. So if you’re the opposing D you’ve got to defend against Connor at maximum speed than take on Leon as he slows everything down. This must be exhausting physically and mentally for the D – like a batter facing a 101 mph fastball than a 73 mph change up.
In an overly simplistic way, following what you describe, McDavid reminds me of a basketball player and Leon of a soccer player.
Given the MVP season that Draisaitl is currently having vs the season McDavid is having, what are the chances McDavid signs a contract that matches the one Draisaitl signed?
Besides union business the future earning increase of many star players are dependent on Connor’s earnings.
Based on the “Agent Provacateur” podcast and Elliote Friedman’s 32 Thoughts column, it’s highly likely that the cap will go to $97 million next (2025-26) season and $105 million by the 2027-28 season instead of having a huge $20 million jump next year.
That would make a $10 million AAV for Bouchard and a $19.7 AAV for McDavid fairly palatable.
The other side effect of the “smoothed cap jump” soon to be agreed to by the NHLPA and the league, is that some elite players may take shorter 1-3 year deals to catch the benefits of signing in a $100million+ cap world. Think Marner and Rantanen… Matthews agent predicted correctly by signing the 5 year deal to perfectly take advantage of the jump.
The NHL and PA saw the effect of the NBA’s $24M 2016 cap jump that allowed the Golden State Warriors to sign Kevin Durant and prolong their dynasty and didn’t want a repeat. Smoothing the jump allows 3 UFA groups take part more fully in the benefits and also gives teams the ability to actually make a solid budgeting decisions instead of the guessing they were dealing with for past 5 years.
Hard to imagine being Connor, but if I were Connor I would take that exact contract.
Now in my fantasy world, Connor takes a page from Sids book and goes 9.7.
In 2017 he took 15.7% of the cap. In a 92M cap that’s 14.5M. Drai is 14.0
Unfortunately I think Holloway would be perfect next to Mcdavid in a Pat Maroon role. Hope they can find someone similar
Holloway has 10 times the talent Pat Maroon had.
Maroon gets little cred for being a three time champion.
That’s just your opinion. Pat Maroon was a completely different player. Not sure how you can compare the two?
The comparable makes no sense some people have a hard time letting go. Armstrong fuked us over there’s going to be a handful of G.M’s that will pounce on St.Louis free agents in his tenure. Armstrong better not leave a crack in the opening.
I think he’s suggesting “making space”
but I don’t really agree w/ this. Holloway is better served on the cycle
I think the Nuge off the PP should be fully silenced (not that there should have been any to start with in my opinion).
What a pass to Drai and what a snipe off a chemistry driven give and go.
I don’t have the numbers handy but do remember that when RNH was out of lineup a few years ago the PP and PK both suffered.
https://images.app.goo.gl/DEB72WmEEfBLVELn9
Feel free to counter the opinion with substance……
We played well against the Caps didn’t get any puck luck. Our PP with Leon-Nuge-Hyman-Bouchard-? Might not be as flashy without McDavid but they are still a top tier PP. Leon is having a magical year with Leon getting a nice holiday with the 4 nations cup coach Kris can run him hard for now.
Jamark, Brown, Arvidsson and Perry all played more than Drai at 5 on 5 last night.
Drai ended up with just under 22 minutes, in line with his season average, but there was quite a few easy PP minutes on there.
When your up 4-0 early in the second coach Kris rightfully pumped the grunts with minutes. We need more games like this where they don’t go into the prevent defence until the game is well in hand.
Sure but I was just responding to the point re: the coach running him hard – didn’t last night, really,
Not to get in the way of your fued, but is that steve buscemi in the crook of that guys arm? Lol. What a funny clip.
They figured it out somewhat without McDavid on the PP. Nuge played McDavid’s role, not nearly as good, but they had reasonable results.
Nuge definitely helped his case with regard to PP time. Arvidson and Skinner haven’t made significant cases for themselves at the same time. While Skinner had some HDs last night, he’s a bit of a giveaway machine in the offensive zone. Nuge has coughed up a lot of pucks on the PP in the past few weeks. He gets trapped easily on the half-boards and just isn’t tough to recover pucks against in a board-scrum. Yesterday, he drifted over into McDavid’s position cycling low on the left side and found great chem with Leon (though it seems everyone has chem with Leon). This is all eye-test, I haven’t crosschecked these claims with data.
I do think the right play is to run this PP as is (McD-Leon-Hyman-Bouch-Nuge) rather than rethink strategy (adding a finisher in a guy like Skinner vs another PP playmaker that can help expose soft spots in a PK as Nuge does) in the short term. I think there’d be significant growing pains to the PP-strategy-rethink although I do believe having a natural finisher on that flank to be a better fit in the medium to long run. That’d likely open up some room for Bouche too(PKs are defending his bomb while giving up a vulnerability to shots from the Ovi position). Right now, Nuge truly is a non-threat to score from that flank and PK structure against the Oilers PP demonstrates this.
Nuge is quickly becoming a middle 6 guy rather than a top 6 and I believe the biggest reason for this is footspeed and strength along the wall. Both of those matter immensely in gaining zone entries or recovering possession in a board battle on the PK.
The man ate bacon with every meal…you can’t do that!
In the past Hyman has said Leon is a “pass first 50 goal scorer”. I always thought that was spot on, but now I’m not so sure. Maybe it should be a “pass first 50 goal scorer who plays Selke level defense”. By the end of the season it could be “a pass first 60 goal scorer who plays Selke level defense”.
Noah Philp was quietly solid and showed smarts and skill on his great assist. Caved in faceoff (that might be JT Miller – would have to check) but that will take time to come and it will.
They have the perfect mentor for him in D. Ryan but sent him away. I know why (salary cap), but I would sure be nice to have Ryan around to help the inexperienced lad.
I know Ryan is American, but maybe the Oilers can convince him to spend some more years in Edmonton as an assistant coach (not on the bench but mentoring players off ice).
I’m confused why no one thinks Henrique or any of the other centers can’t perform this task of guidance.
Perhaps its a product of viewing this as the only thing Ryan can do.
Jeff Skinner played well and couldn’t finish.
Roll with it coach, he’s about to go on a heater.