The Edmonton Oilers played a strong road game against the St. Louis Blues last night, outscoring the home team 3-2 in OT. The Blues had the only five-on-five goal on the night, that’s an area the Oilers have been brilliant in since mid-November. Tonight, it’s on to Chicago for a tilt against the Blackhawks.
Do the Edmonton Oilers need a new No. 1 goaltender ahead of NHL trade deadline? Here’s the story.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: STL, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: PHI, WAS, TBY, FLA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 5-3-0, 10 points in 8 games
- January result: 1-1-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 33-15-4, 70 points in 52 games
The Oilers are on a 110-point trajectory and currently sit first in the Pacific Division, up by two points with a game in hand. Tonight is a back to back, but the two cities (St. Louis and Chicago) are close. It’s a drive similar to Edmonton-Brooks, and of course the club is flying so we’re talking an hour. That said, btbs be btbs.
THE NUMBERS
It was a fine game for the Glimmer Twins, and Evan Bouchard was right there with them. When those three are rolling it’s a happy evening for all involved. I thought Connor Brown played well, Jeff Skinner was wildly effective and that Stuart Skinner contributed to the victory.
Edmonton was over 60 percent in shots and HD chances, pretty much over 60 in everything at five-on-five. I didn’t catch the reason Adam Henrique missed the game, but will guess he was under the weather. Hopefully he can play tonight, the coaching staff doesn’t use Noah Philp much at all.
Don’t look now but Corey Perry is eating everyone’s lunch on right wing, getting the cherry minutes. His skating past Binnington after the Leon goal was priceless or galling depending on your point of view. I’m so sorry Kevin Lowe didn’t make that trade 20+ years ago.
One of the areas Stan Bowman may want to look at near the deadline is PK. Edmonton is allowing 8.76 GA-60, that’s No. 23 overall. The save pct is .823 (No. 26), with Skinner at .844 (No. 25 among Gs with 100+ minutes in the discipline). I suspect it’s a team issue as opposed to Skinner, but we don’t know what Stan Bowman is thinking in this area.
At five-on-five, Skinner is No. 10 in save percentage (.923) since November 10. That’s in 22 games and over 1000 minutes, I suspect that’s enough sample to rely on but your mileage may vary.
A final point to make: Leon. Wow. What a player, what a season.
It’s Wednesday on the Lowdown and that means we get to visit with Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. We start at noon and go to 2pm on Sports 1440, Bruce hits the air at 1pm. We’ll chat about all things Oilers and review last night while looking forward to tonight. We’ll get a look at the ‘Hawks, too, and Declanations is all about the NBA today. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
Skinner/McDavid/Hyman
Nuge/Draisaitl/Perry
Podkolzin/Henrique/Kapanen
Brown/Janmark/Arvidsson
I’d like to see this tried out tonight, I won’t question the coach though as all his moves tend to work out and if they don’t he’s quickly on that blender button.
I enjoy that he has everyone comfortable playing with anyone.
Nuge and Draisaitl have great chemistry, Skinner can focus on getting to the soft spots for McDavid to find him.
Draisaitl is the goal scoring dynamo, imo I don’t want him going out of his way to try and feed Skinner passes, let Nuge feed Draisaitl passes.
Perry and Arvidsson can flip flop, whatevs.
6-1 Oilers.
Interesting article from the Second City Hockey blog about today’s game, so I won’t quote too much and encourage others to follow the link.
…
Slaggert (who?) and Donato on L1 with other-Connor.
Way to surround the kid with legit talent.
Interested to watch Donato tonight, he could be a good deadline pickup. 28, pending UFA, $2M cap hit, in the middle of a career year. 15 goals so far, can play C and LW
LT, a couple of questions and couple comments:
You often talk about Skinner’s 5×5 save percentage. Is there any evidence that this is more important than overall save percentage?
Travis Yost showed in November that Edmonton was one of the best at expected goals against on the PK, but was among the worst in actual goals against: https://dailyhive.com/edmonton/stats-reason-oilers-pk-struggles
So I’m also just curious why do you think the PK struggles are more team related than goaltender related? Unless the data has changed dramatically, stats would suggest the goaltenders are more to blame
Now for the eye test comments. First, analyzing the last 3 PK against: Last night, the PK goal could have been prevented if Skinner handled a well-seen shot, without it coming out to a Blue. He then let the rebounded shot get through 5 hole. RNH didn’t make much of an effort to stop the goal line scramble, but his initial position suggested confidence in the goalie. The entire PK prior to that point was very well executed by the defenders. In Toronto, similar issues with shots getting deflected to Leafs at point blank range, with blame to be shared on the goalie and the defenders not picking up the Leaf in close. Also true that Woll stopped harder chances while down a man.
The other comment is that Skinner’s lateral mobility has not improved, and opposing PP is seemingly coached to exploit that. I have seen a few too many of the cross ice passes get through (something that wasn’t happening last playoffs), but you can’t stop them all and Skinner continues to struggle here.
Will also add Skinner’s extended streaks made for a really interesting graphic:
https://oilersnation.com/news/oilers-3-stars-of-the-week-perry-keeps-scoring-draisaitl-inches-closer-to-nhl-points-lead
Don’t know if you would be able to produce such a disparate spread for any other goalie in the league. Impressive that they won the first rounds with goaltending at the 5%ile, and impressive that Skinner gave them close to 90%ile against Dallas and Florida. Concerning that both happened in the same run, but I don’t know how much to read into this.
Yep. I do not push LT on this because we obviously see things differently, but IMO Skinner’s PK sv% matters and he owns partial responsibility.
Question if anyone has the time for it.
I hear a lot about not over playing our stars, and “well over 20 minutes” in a strong negative.
Im just curious. Ive never looked deep at the numbers but is this really bad? Mackinnon won the hart last year and played 22:48 average.
Looking at him as an example:
23-24: 22:48 (mvp)
22-23 : 22:19
21-22 : 21:03 (cup)
Is the 1 minute difference that huge? Is playing pastrnak 19:55 actually a good thing?
Im genuinely curious, has this just become a narrative or has someone crunched the numbers and it leads to better season or playoff performance?
I’ve heard that 5v5 TOI (and I would add PK) is the key because the minutes are harder, PP less so
I haven’t seen anyone correlate it to performance. I think the intuitive here is that over 82 games a lot of TOI accumulates and being fresher is better for playoffs. I think it’s fair to say fresher players are at less risk of injury as well
Connor said that his off season training had affected last regular season, he was tired out from training so hard and had a poor for him start. No games off season, but he still got tired, so it seems fair to say there’s something to all of this. I think age would also factor on to it at some point
This season’s forward TOI – D play more I suppose because there are fewer of them per GP. Listed in order of 5v5 TOI, All is rounded:
MacKinnon 5v5 19:07 PP 3:54 PK :03 All 23:00
Kaprizov 5v5 19:06 PP 3:18 PK 0 All 22:00
McDavid 5v5 18:51 PP 3:16 PK :04 All 22:00
Drai 5v5 18:18 PP 3:24 PK :03 All 21:00
Rantanen 5v5 18:16 PP 3:57 PK :01 All 22:00
Kucherov 5v5 17:47 PP 4:00 PK :01 All 21:00
Barzal 5v5 17:28 PP 2:52 PK :01 All 20:00
Scheiffele 17:25 PP 2:43 PK :06 All 20:00
It seems top players all play a lot. Looking at Scheif’s TOI I imagine if the Oilers weren’t chasing so many games the Duo would play a little less, hope they get there.
Interestingly no Panther forwards in the top 50 5v5 TOI, but their top two Reinhart and Bark also PK, where the fellas listed don’t really
1) Personally, I don’t think McDavid is nursing an injury. It’s not that he’s “not trying as hard”, but after a run to G7 of the finals it must be difficult to play with the same kind of locked-in, balls-to-the-walls intensity night in and night out for regular season hockey in February when making the playoffs is (knock on wood) all but guaranteed. And he’s consistently locked-in and risen to the occasion in close games and had some fantastic performances when the Oilers have been pushed. I’m not worried about him at all.
2) Re: goaltending, I don’t think the operative question is not “do the Oilers need a new #1 goaltender” but “Is bringing in another goalie capable of displacing Skinner if they play to their potential worth the acquisition cost”? Multiple variables in the latter (acquisition cost, the gap between the new goalie and Skinner, the likelihood of them actually outplaying Skinner) make it a risky move as LT makes, and if the asking price for Vemelka is a 1st round pick+Pickard+Akey, I’m comfortable saying “no thanks” and riding with Stu and Pickard, given the other needs. That being said, I think it’s worth finding out what that price is, and seeing if there’s a creative way to add a Vemelka/Gibson, etc. using multiple, lower-quality assets. Probably not, but there’s no harm in exploring options.
3) Thought the Skinners and Bouchard had a great game. The local media in EDM (LT notwithstanding) have this preternatural intolerance for offensive D who clearly out-chance/score the opposition but have their lapses defensively. J. Skinner had has clearly taken whatever message KK gave him to heart, and I really hope he gets a look on 97 or 29’s wing for a game or two.
4) Speaking of defensive lapses – last night the chaos (good and bad) of Klingberg was on full display. He made some great passes, and one really nice defensive play where he broke up a 3 on 2 by whacking a backdoor saucer pass out of the air. He would immediately follow up a good shift with one where he would make an ill advised short pass towards the front of his own net out of the corner, or lose track of the weak side forward when he was covering the front of the net. I think he’ll be a net positive once he settles in, but every time he’s stuck in his own end I start to hold my breath.
5) Re: penalty killing: There are potential internal solutions worth exploring before the deadline. I’ve thrown it out there before, but I think trying 29 and maybe 97 on the PK might be worth exploring. Hard for a PP to succeed if they don’t have the puck, and if those two played the first 30 seconds of a PK they’d (hopefully) be able to gain possession after a Draisaitl faceoff win, get the puck out/try to spring 97 on a SH chance, and then deter zone entries before another forward pair comes over the boards, and they’d both be rested to play the first shift after a successful kill. I don’t think they’d need to be puck-eaters like Chris Tanev to give the Oilers some successful minutes on the PK.
6) On Arvidsson – I think the Oilers need to do whatever they can to find out what they have in the player before the deadline. Him and Henrique are the only forwards making more than $1.15M with no NTC/NMC, so if they bring in a major piece at the deadline and need to move >$1M out to facilitate a move, those two are the most likely candidates to be moved. Let Arvidsson get a sustained run with 29 and see if he can get back to the form he had before his injury.
7) On Henrique – I like the player but he’s had a rough year and the underlying fancystats (from what I can discern) don’t look good. He’s 34, scoring at an 11-12-33 per 82 game pace, and signed for another year at $3M. I think that would be his lowest point-per-game pace since his second NHL season. Players can fall off in there early/mid 30s, and if there’s any way to move him out while acquiring a replacement 3C (or 1LW to move 93 to 3C) at the deadline, that has to be pursued in my opinion. Laughton?
8) I know its a B2B, but the Oilers have to have this game. Hopefully an opportunity for a few slumping players (Arvidsson, Podkolzin, Henrique if he’s feeling better) to get off the schneid.
4-2 Oilers
Agree w/your observation on Klingberg. Last night was essentially pre-season game 3. There were a couple of times last night when he really struggled to help the team get out of the zone – just connect on a simple pass. Well, easy for me to say, hard for someone who hadn’t played in 400 days.
He’s still figuring things out but it’s worth taking the time for him.
Agreed. I noticed his bobbles. I like your interpretation: preseason game 3. I really like his upside.
I think its close to time for:
X/McDavid/Hyman
Skinner/Drai/X
Podz/X/Arvidsson
We probably won’t see it tonight as Leon/Connor did their thing late last game and Chicago isn’t a game they need to make the split but, for me:
1) I think its time to split them up
2) I think its time to get Hyman back with McDavid as a 1st line duo
3) I think Skinner has 100% earned a top 6 opportunity (and its been more than the last couple of games).
4) Both Arvy and Podz are struggling but I want them a pair as they’ve worked well together – whether its Henrique or Nuge centering them (or even Philp I guess).
Do we think that McDavid/Drai together recently has anything to do with Leon fighting for the Rocket, the Art Ross and the Hart and, well, McDavid helps with that given the black hole of offence the “2nd tier wingers” are providing?
I agree splitting them up tonight makes sense – spread out the offense, and you’d hope that you don’t need to load up 97+29 to beat the Blackhawks.
If 19 is ready to go tonight I’d like to see:
19-97-18
53-29-90
92-93-33
13-48-28
If 19 is still out, call me crazy but:
53-97-18
92-29-90
33-93-28
13-48-42
If there’s ever a night you can revisit 53-97 and see if those first few games of the season were an aberration, a game against one of the worst teams in the league might leave more room for trial and error.
I’m with you. As I’ve said in recent days: Coach, play that blender! Now’s the time.
One of the areas Stan Bowman may want to look at near the deadline is PK. Edmonton is allowing 8.76 GA-60, that’s No. 23 overall. The save pct is .823 (No. 26), with Skinner at .844 (No. 25 among Gs with 100+ minutes in the discipline). I suspect it’s a team issue as opposed to Skinner, but we don’t know what Stan Bowman is thinking in this area.
Interesting.
We know it was historically awful for a good stretch to start the season but then was tops in the league for a nice long stretch. It has regressed recently but I would note, the 3 straight PK goals allowed didn’t have Ekholm available for any of them.
With that said, it has been uneven the last few weeks – there were a couple of goals scored right after the PK ended that were, effectively, PK goals but not counted as such.
Many noted how Emberson’s addition to PK changed the story after a bad start. The PK has been superb until —wait for it— Ekholm got sick (2 pp GA, Leafs), Ekholm got penalized (1PP GA, Blues). I’m not sure all the PK hand-wringing I’m seeing is worth it.
PP hand-wringing on the other hand…
I would suggest that Bouchard played the elite 2-way game that we got used to down the stretch and in the playoffs.
That’s two games in a row (well, after the first period on Saturday).
Bouchard has a growing history of getting very hot down the stretch and in to the playoffs – his game picks up at this time of year.
Over/under: $10.5M x 8.
That’s the apx range presuming he has a strong stretch run and playoffs, as he tends to do – in my opinion.
Aside from that apx 10 minute stretch in the third (started with the “meh”/”questionable” call on Ekholm and ending with the Thomas missed net), the Oilers really did dominate this game.
With that said, that stretch was very poor and without the massive break on the Thomas miss, who knows f they fight back.
The missed call on Schenn was worse than the call on Ekholm.
McDavid looks good skating and vision wise but he’s having trouble stickhandling.
I believe he has a nagging finger issue because he’s not trying any slapshots, he’s not picking corners/holes as accurately on the tenders and he bobbles more pucks weaving through defenders this season than we’ve seen in the past.
We’ve been so spoiled watching him move the puck like it’s on a string around and through people that the current flubs are glaring, unexpected and out of place.
Mcdavid could probably figure out how to play on one leg if he had to.
That’s #29 you’re talking about.
I myself think it’s a wrist you also never see him try one timers anymore.
Didn’t catch the game last night and just watched the highlights now. I get excited when the Oilers don’t celebrate or even smile after goals. Business mode.
LT, re your article in The Athletic: I like it. The strongest position you’ve taken yet on this energy-waster of an issue.
“If Bowman is going to bring in a replacement for Skinner, he better be right. That’s an unnecessary risk for any manager, and a poor use of assets based on Skinner’s performance in last spring’s playoffs and his results since Nov. 23.”
Q: You made a comment on the show yesterday to the effect of *goalies are like pitchers.* I don’t know much (anything truth be told) about baseball, so I’d love to hear more.
Oilers: 3rd in the league overall. 6-3-1 in last 10 games.
Blackhawks: 2nd from the bottom of the league overall. 2-5-3 in last 10 games.
Great chance of an Oilers win tonight.
Almost guaranteed?
There are no guarantees. But I’m with you: this *should* be a win. That said, I’m hoping the team takes the game and the team seriously.
Worth noting too that the two Blackhawks wins in their last 10 have come against the Avs and the Golden Knights. The three overtime/shootout losses have come at the hands of the Preds, Hurricanes, and Lightning. So they’re going toe to toe with some serious teams lately.
Oilers have a tendency to lose games like this.
Team is tired, playing the 2nd of a back to back and your best players were well north of 20 minutes last night. Need to get off to a good start so you’re not in chase mode on weary legs come the 3rd period.
They should win, but that’s why you play the games.
This is like that Marty Reasoner “mic’d up” episode. “I’ve got a 10% score per shot percentage, so if I get 10 shots tonight I’m guaranteed a goal!”
Really liked the snapper by McDavid last night. The problem with a guy like McDavd is once you score 64 goals in a season the expectation is that you can approach that every year.
He also not coincidentally had the most shots of his career that season.
I’d like him to keep shooting.
It opens the ice up for him if he scores on shots. Otherwise they rightly focus on his passing lanes
Greater than 50 a year should be the expectation for him. He needs to think about goal scoring every game.
Respectfully there is no problem about any part of his near perfect game.
Last season he stood on the cusp of NHL playoff history and blew it.
Still in the top 5 of scoring, he might not be breaking his back to score this regular season?
Wait until the playoffs. That’s when we will see the real McDavid.
Oh, I 100% believe he is holding back. He went to Game 7 and knows what it takes. I know I am nitpicking, but isn’t that what the internet is for? 😉
You are doing a fine job.
That’s some great nitpicking.
The Oilers are in a group of around 5 legit favs to win the cup this season. I think adding a substantial scoring threat like Marchand at the deadline to play with 97, and pushing the depth down, would put them in a group of 1.
Maybe even move Arvidsson to beantown?
Upgrading Arvidsson to Marchand would be a terrific level up. Also having Marchand, Kane and Perry (one on each line) would be awesome to watch.
Not sure why, but when you talk about having Kane, Marchand and Perry each on their own line, I immediately think about having the three all on the same line.
I’m not worried about Arvidsson he’s built for the playoffs and that’s all that matters. As for Jeff Skinner in a tight checking 1-1 game 6 on the road I’ll take a natural born goal scorer getting the winning marker of the series.
Send both to Bean-town & picks in a deal for Marchand & Kastelic.
What exactly does this mean? He’s 5’10, 185 which is small for an NHLer. His postseason stat line over the past 6 years is 23, 4-9-13 -6 (only 6 even strength points) which is pretty mediocre for a top-6 winger.
I’ve seen this characterization on this site before and it confuses me. What does “built for the playoffs” even mean?
Not sure he’s built for the playoffs. But he has a reputation for raising his level of play during the playoffs as many veteran players do. That might be what is being alluded to.
I started to watch Oilers two springs back, during their LAKings series. Who stood out for me on the Kings as major PITAs? Arvidsson and Doughty. In the next year too. You can see that now, as he’s hustling all the time, making the other team aware of his persistence.
Will he be even more of a PITA for Oilers opponents in this post-season? That’s his history. He does indeed seem “built for the playoffs.”
What is this reputation based on? Certainly not recent results.
I was surprised to see that stat line, because it seemed to me like Arvidsson scored a bunch against the Oilers in the playoffs. Nope, 1 goal in 11 games over the last 2 series. 6 assists in 6 games in 22-23, so maybe I’m just remembering a bunch of his rebounds getting put in lol.
Arvidsson doesn’t really look physically off to me, but he hasn’t seemed to mesh with any Oilers yet. It’s like 4 guys on a team and Arvi off doing his own thing when he’s on the ice. I don’t know who his most common linemates were in Nashville and LA that led to the much better numbers.
I’ll judge Arvidsson and Skinner on their playoff performance as they are on short contracts. As for Arvidsson he goes to the net aggressively he makes his living in the tough areas while taking 3-4 cross-checks in the back he makes life tough for the opposition D-man. As you get older this style of play is not sustainable in a 82 regular season. In a tight checking series you need to get some dirt on your work boots no offence to McLeod or Foegele but it’s not in their DNA
My worry with Arvidsson is injuries are taking a toll. He’s paid the price for a willingness to go to the tough areas and now isn’t scoring.
Seems like more than a slump.
I’m having a hard time understanding all the Arvidsson love as well. He’s played mostly top 6 and has 6 goals in 38 games. He’s a little bulldog sure, but not much seems to come of it and for $4M that’s not much value. I’d move him in the right deal
Interesting he & Marchand are nearly the same size. So, it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the bite in the dog. Or something like that.
I might add that Matthew Savoie is about the same size as well.
that size comparison
tween he and Marchand blew me away....Arvidson is actually and inch taller and 10 lbs heavier...whod have thought that ? In comparrison, Arvi has the Taylor Hall problem….is always on his ass ! Marchand is the opposite…always knocking people on their ass…..Maybe. But there are many Oilers in a “slump” right now. And yet the team keeps winning. Something different is happening here, on this team, in front of our eyes every night. Less goals. More wins. Lots of shots – by many players. Apparently there’s a thing called “regression.” The shots will start finding their way into the back of the net. Stay the course (even though it’s way more exciting -that’s the adrenaline/dopamine rush- to be worrying and wanting to upset the cart Knoblauch et al are wheeling towards Stanley).
I am ok with him. His lines always seem to show good numbers. Such as the numbers I see in LTs post above. (That is as far as I have dug into it though).
https://x.com/ConAirNcCagevid/status/1886982839079723378?s=19
Injury news from last night’s O.T
had to login just to say thanks!…Ha…perfect!!
Seconded and Thirded lol
I laughed when the replay showed both Broberg and Holloway flailing and falling….chuckled all the way to bed….what a player
I know there’s been a lot comments (on blogs and in media) about Bouchard, but I would like to frame the conversation a bit. in the last ten games he has 10 points and is +9. He’s on pace for 65 points and +32. If he continues his current play he’ll likely finish with more than 70 points and close to +40 on the season. That will put him number 3 in scoring and number 2 in plus/minus for the oilers. playing against elites. That’s a pretty good season.
I have no worries about Bouch’s ability to contribute. In fact I’m back to Ownership Group thinking where I hope he struggles enough to keep his price down.
I feel the posters on this blog generally agree he is a phenomenal player. But I also feel he can improve. These aren’t mutually exclusive opinions.
He can cut down on his mental gaffes and become one of the greatest of this era. The errors he makes are completely mental and can be ‘coached’. The Coffey article over the weekend was perfect. Call Bouch to attention and challenge him to be better. This is what the best in the game do.
Happen to have a link handy?
Folks, can we please stop and savour what happened last night?
We have the best player of our generation and the most exciting player to watch in hockey history. (And he’s not even our leading scorer right now!)
He won the game in overtime with a dazzling play.
That play involved single-handedly undressing the exact two players who tried to screw us over with offer sheets.
The *exact two*! What were the odds that those two would be on the ice, in exactly that position, to lose the game for St. Louis?
What a beautiful Oiler moment. Poetic justice hardly gets better than this.
It was both sweet and savory 🙂
Salty, if you’re STL.
The odds were high that they would be on the ice, because Oilers mismanagement seriously misjudged the ability of these players, and treated them abysmally, and blundered into losing two really good assets for the medium to long term competitiveness of the OIlers.
There’s plenty of debate of what the Oilers “need” at the deadline (goalie, Dman, PK help, scoring). Is there a case to be made that the “best player available” is the way to go? If this team is as good as we hope, then plug in the highest quality acquisition you can get wherever in the lineup…a “A” grade forward beats a “B” grade goalie or Dman regardless of specific need in this scenario
Buy Canadian … Crosby or Marchand (which ever one becomes available at the TDL).
Was thrilled to watch the Oilers last night.
Right from the start of the game they totally dominated; got a little bored and allowed St Louis to score a couple before coming back with Leon Beliveau/ Drasaiitl.
McDavid is obviously dogging it this regular season waiting for the playoffs. Even still he’s easily in the top 5 in scoring(Gordie Howe territory).
Yessiree…this season is shaping up like none other this century.
As of last night McDavid tied for fourth in scoring, with a bullet (was way down in the list a few weeks ago).