At its heart, this blog is about prospects and team building, and this Oilers organization has a major decision to make in the next three weeks that will impact those areas.
Let’s project ourselves to post-deadline March 7, and we see goaltender John Gibson and RH center Jake Evans and LH defenseman Brian Dumoulin on the roster.
How did the Oilers get there?
Gibson, who owns a .925 save percentage at five-on-five this season, would be an excellent insurance policy for worries about Stuart Skinner. He is under contract for two more years past this one at $6.4 million, and has a no-trade he is reportedly willing to waive for Edmonton (and possibly others). Could the Oilers get him for the 2025 second-round pick and Calvin Pickard? Let’s say Stan Bowman can and does get it done.
Next up is Jake Evans. He’s on a brilliant $1.7 million deal and is UFA this summer. He would be a strong plug-and-play option for Edmonton at the No. 4 center position. Could Bowman get him for the rights to Maxim Denezkin and (say) a future third- or fourth-round pick? Let’s say Stan Bowman can and does get it done.
Finally, let’s agree that Bowman and Ducks general manager get into a deeper discussion after agreeing to the Gibson deal. Let’s say that Bowman pursues defenseman Brian Dumoulin and gets the trade done. Edmonton acquires Gibson and Dumoulin, and the Ducks agree to a return that includes Viktor Arvidsson, Calvin Pickard and enough picks to convince Anaheim ownership to retain enough to make the money work.
My question for you is this: Can Stan get all this done without sacrificing Matthew Savoie? Sam O’Reilly? I don’t think he can.
It’s the Lowdown from across North America today, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440. Steve Lansky joins us from Mexico to talk trade deadline, and Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff will join us from Montreal to talk 4-Nations. Much deadline talk, MLB and NBA thrown in too and Declan Krueger’s always fun Declanations. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
New for The Athletic: In defence of Evan Bouchard. The eye test is sounding the alarm, while the math keeps pointing at the results.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6134609/2025/02/14/edmonton-oilers-evan-bouchard-stats-2025/
I like this. Bouchard doubters, read & then please hold your tongue.
And this, from the Wheeler article you reference, on Bouchard as a Jr. As true today as the day it was written: “More than anything, Bouchard teaches us how our eyes can play tricks on us and that lethargy doesn’t equate to a lack of talent or headspace. Defencemen can be dominant without looking it, and Bouchard is exactly that.”
Bouchard is an interesting study. I like him a lot. I don’t think we get to game 7 last season without him. I know lots of guys can’t stand him. I’m not one of those guys, but good lord it’s a bit tough to defend him with some of the egregious errors he makes. I cut him slack, just like I do a player like Draisaitl, because of their creativity and the fact they try to make plays, but come on Bouchard. Admittedly, I’m not well versed in advanced analytics. I see the value, but just not interesting to me. So I see the analytics that support Bouchard’s game, and I can agree, but my eyes tell me he needs to get those egregious mistakes out of his game before he can be considered an elite defenseman.
Compare Bouchard to Parayko. Parayko looks like a great D, he’s big, he physical, he can skate and then he dumps the puck out of his own end over and over again like Kris Russell. He cost Team Canada a goal against Sweden because he iced the puck for no reason.
Bouchard gets way better results than Parayko, but Parayko is on Team Canada. That’s a reflection of old boys hockey culture alive and well.
Old boys hockey, wins in the playoffs. Not Bouchard types.
What now?
Are you aware of what Bouchard did in the playoffs last year…. and the year before?
Parayko also made a terrific stretch pass to Jarvis on the 2-0 which nobody seems to have noticed.
Mato, you remind me of Strother Martin in Slapshot. Did you know Eddie Shore???
Coaches love predictability.
Especially in short tournaments where there is little time to recover.
It gives them a level of control that talented but mistake prone does not.
They can coach out lesser talent to a degree – see McTavish in ’06 – whereas they can’t bad turnovers.
I’m not saying that that always works out to the good but I think 32 out of 32 HC’s in the NHL would agree with this.
The “advanced analytics” in this case don’t even need to be that advanced. There are numbers out there about how great he defending the zone entry and the like but the numbers that are easily undestandable are goals scored and goals given up when he is on the ice and its a massive positive and its a massive positive even when he’s on the ice without either of McDavid or Drai (or Ekholm).
Yes, there are very egregious mistakes and they lead directly to goals against. They are highly visible and leave lasting impressions but, at the end of the day, the volume is NOT high (objectively) and the result is the same as when other d-men, take a bad angle and get beat for a rush chance or go chasing and leave the danger man in front, or bobble a puck and get beat out of the corner for a net front. All those lead to goals against and happen every game and more often – they just aren’t a “visible”.
There most certainly are stats that show the problems with Bouchard. It’s not all the eye test. McCurdy and Staples count them.
and the same chart shows the massive net positive, even in a season where he has struggled.
The whole linked article is mostly positive.
Staples’ take is a bit more dialectical than LT’s in that there’s more of a statistical acknowledgement of what some fans are complaining about.
LT mentions the PP struggles to a greater degree.
Bouchard’s struggles are more than just a young player struggling. The mistakes show statistically, but not in shares. And just because they don’t show in shares doesn’t mean those stats are any less valid or real. They are in fact very real, and not “single events.” There’s a pattern there that can be counted, and a lot of the absolutely enormous mistakes Bouchard makes precisely show a sloppiness or indifference that infuriates his detractors.
This is not an eye test vs stats thing. This is a measurement problem. Pointing to an unrelated set of measures to say “there’s nothing to see here” is not an honest evaluation of the player. Shares don’t inform about mistakes. You need other stats for that. And mistakes matter, although one can certainly debate how much.
100% Bouchard turns the puck over and this includes egregious turnovers that end up in the back of the net as a direct result. Loud and highly visible turnovers that leave lasting memories.
Yes, Bouch needs to get those cut down big time (and he has in the past, including in the playoffs) but truth be told, the volume of these mistakes for goal against is not high – factually – even prior to taking in to account how much he has the puck on his stick.
The big giveaways suck but, at the same time, the result is the same as when, say (a) Ekholm take a bad angle on a 2 on 2 to allow a quick strike or (b) Nurse gets chasing and leaves the danger man in front or (c) Kulak backs in and in and in letting a snipe shoot from the mid circles or (d) Kulak fumbles behind the net and gets beat out front for a point blank.
D-men are making mistakes all over the ice leading directly to goals against just as much, actually more, than Bouchard – the mistakes just aren’t as visible and memorable.
At the same time, Bouch is out there for 21-22 minutes at 5 on 5 per game and making positive plays all over the ice – great stick in the defensive zone, elite at defending zone entry (and creating offence out of step ups) and retrieval/exit after retrieval/exit after retrieval/exit.
Bouchard has struggled, all season long, at both ends of the ice and on the PP and is still a massively positive impact driver.
From LT’s article at The Athletic and the data, its objectively impossible to propagate two common narratives about this player:
1) that he is a PP merchant; or
2) that he is solely a function of playing with McDavid (or Ekholm – his numbers remain materially positive away from all three).
Evan Bouchard is an elite play driving monster at 5 on 5 – end stop.
Summarizing!
Määttä scored twice–including an EN–to give him 7 goals on the year.
Stonehouse scored his 10th and was named 3rd star.
Fischer, O’Reilly and Nicholl each had an apple.
Day stopped 26 of 29 but lost 3-2.
Lachance, Copponi, Münzenberger, and Clattenburg were denied soup and shall have to content themselves with marmalade instead.
It was a very enjoyable Knights game. Quite the game to attend, as the first one in this this new year for me! I loved how they spread around the love for the points, and to see Oilers prospects do well. They did get sloppy and cocky after a while, and were too brash and hasty in making risky and rough mistakes and plays. The issues of going up by so much, so early.
Oh, and I do hope O’Reilly is alright after that huge hit he took late in the game. Limping off the ice is never a good sign.
How’s Bowman going to get the deadline sorted?
Lots of potential areas to upgrade, but not a lot of cap if Kane returns to get much done.
Goalie? 2RD? Top six forward? Right handed 3rd line centre? Rugged players?
Rumours about. What have you been reading?
Skinner and a prospect for Gibson with retention is floating around.
Folks, what have you been reading?
Sam O’Reilly is still only 18 years old, he’s over point-per-game, has a very strong defensive game, his +41 (no, that’s not a typo) is #1 in the OHL for forwards, he’s one of the best at faceoffs and he has decent size at 6’1 / 190.
We’ve talked for years about having a good RHC on the roster, he’s the literal embodiment of the prospect we’ve been waiting for forever. So I’m a little mystified at the suggestion we use him as trade bait for bottom-of-the-roster rentals.
He is about the most bulletproof prospect in the system:
Although the league seems to be seeing more trade action these days, you have to draft what you need because it’s hard to trade for younger players in key spots mostly
Also after a few players each draft year, best player available is a crap shoot. I think also drafting right shot players is smart, making sure to draft goalies, and if you can get more to the NHL or excelling than you need you have ‘mined’ very valuable assets
How many goalies has LA turned into things they want or need?
For me, he is a RH ROR.
Similiar OHL and pre-OHL resume. ROR was drafted #33, SOR, #32.
Same height as his namesake zand Sam has lots of time to add another 20-30 lbs, but it’s very clear to me what SOR’s career could become and why the Oilers traded this years’ first to get him.
Any extra counting numbers are are icing on the cake, the essence of SOR’s game is the same as ROR, no one should confuse with any current or former high-scoring OHL forward. The name of his game is responsible and highly effective defending, with more offense than an average 2-way Centerman.
I am 100% convinced that SOR will have an ROR-like career.
I see this 4 nations thingy is using the EPL points per game method.
The brits introduced 3 point games decades ago with good sense behind it.
Hilariously, some talk about historical stuff if they start changing the points, as if anyone knows or cares how many points the 1978 Montreal Canadiens got before winning their 3rd cup in a row.
I can’t see them bringing in any NHL inexperienced players barring injury. KK won’t even use vets with any defensive lapses, no way a rookie can cover that bet. I agree with that largely, although Philp if playing well can help because PK RS C and big, but there is the ‘if’. Savoie isn’t scoring enough in the A to force the issue, like Stankoven who had 57 pts in 47 games same age AHL season
There are 5 forwards coming off contract next season including Ryan. If Sav and Philp and others do the right thing this summer we’ll see them next season
Been a long time since I have logged in and posted but wanted to note a few things.
First off on John Gibson honestly the only way I want him inb the oilers net is with double retention and only giving up about a 6th rounder to do so. Yes he is having a decent year by some metrics but is behind Dostel for the 3rd year in a row on his team in GS above expected with the previous 2 years being outside the top 90. If both goalies had a big jump that leads me to believe the team in front of them made a change not that both magically completely turned around. Gibson has seen significantly less success than skinner and was last good before we heard of Covid. Avoid like the plague.
I am in favor of bringing in an insurance goalie for #3.
For other additions- i like Evans or similar, I like Dumoulin or similar both for low cost.
Currently there will be Ryan, Philip, likely Kapenin (spelling, sorry) and if Evans or similar comes in 1 more on the bench- that is damn deep.
Shore up depth at a low cost and go win a cup.
This team is better than last years and last year you can never convince me was not good enough. Game 7, 2-1 game- sure as he’ll does not look like a goalie or Defense issue and 9 out of 10 the oilers score a couple me.
Relax everyone, enjoy a damn good team with no glaring holes, and if a team that by almost any metrics is near the top of the league (4th best overall at the moment as well, so not just moral victories) does not satisfy you, while then maybe that’s a you issue.
Winning the Stanley cup is hard but I am exceptionally happy with the construct and value most are giving.
PS, LT- I wanted to add, you have a regular guest that talks about Nuge not producing and needs to with his massive contract. Just once could someone inform them that Nuge has the 196th biggest contract so hardly big money and is 120th in points and good defensively. I would say that covers every ounce of the bet this year. People that use stats but put those types of narratives into the world are setting things backwards. Just my two sense
I will be disappointed if Savoie is traded. He might not be ready, but I’d like to see him up for 10 games, it’s not as if Victor and Jeff have been lights out
Prospectiza!
It’s a dectet on the docket minus Berry and the Barries.
The Knight twain of O’Reilly and NIcholl combined for five points anoche as London continues their stranglehold at the top of the CHL rankings.
The Birds of Fire are also busting slumps. Clattenburg went off for 2+1 last time out, while Day continues to edge his GAA ever so close to 3 as it’s at 3.02 now. He has averaged 2 GA over his last 7 GP.
BU returns to action fresh after winning their Pot of Beans.
Boston University (Lachance, Copponi) @ 5 p.m.
Vermont (Määttä, Münzenberger) @ 5 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 5 p.m.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
Peterborough (Stonehouse) @ 5 p.m.
All times are the same time and are also Spirit River time.
I know we complain about Nurse and Boosh, but lordy, after Canada lost Morrissey the other night, we could have used them. Still, it’s so Team Canada management to take an aging, fresh back from injury Drew Doughty over a Darnell Nurse who I have never seen playing better.
Doughty is right handed…Nurse is not.
They lost Shea Theodore & Travis Sanhiem will replace him. I have to agree. Why the heck is Drew Doughty playing? I suspect Sanhiem & Doughty will be the third pair.
With the exception of the exceptional Makar, the rest looked slow and could not make an outlet pass if their lives depended on it. And Kempe absolutely used a cheat code on Doughty.
Agree 100%. Doughty had 6 games, 1 point and -1 on the season. Not playing great. Nurse is 52 games, 22 points and +10….and playing great. Not even close. In fact Doughty would not even be in my top 3 to have been chosen. Sigh.
I kind of like what your projection of Bowman’s TDL brings to Edmonton. There is no way he should sacrifice Savoie or O’Reilly at the deadline. Whatever he does accomplish remains to be seen. But unless he can use Kane’s LTIR, there’s no way to expect a big splash as the one you’ve seen in that crystal ball of yours. If he can bolster the defense with the right add, Dumoulin might suffice and if he could get one of Frederic or Kastelic out of Boston that’d be a reasonably successful TDL IMO. The tandem of Skinner & Pickard will have to do.
The Oilers should really call up Savoie. He is likely better than most available upgrades at forward. Move RNH to 3C. Henrique to 4C. Boom Stanley Cup.
Arvi CMD Hyman
Skinner Drai Savoie
Pods RNH Brown
Janmark Henrique Perry
Banking on Savoie immediately stepping into the NHL at 21 as a Top6/Top 9 offensive winger on a deep cup run is not a wise bet.
I’m not opposed to giving him a look down the stretch, but if the team thinks they should add a winger/forward, they should trade for that player and be prepared to go into the playoffs with not being ready for the NHL.
Best case scenario – Savoie is NHL ready, and he and the deadline acquisition both contribute to a deeper forward group.
Worst case scenario – Savoie isn’t ready, he’s in the AHL or on the playoff roster as black ace, but you’ve covered the need for a winger/forward with a trade deadline acquisition.
Savoie is putting up pretty good numbers 5 on 5 playing with duds. He’s a skilled undersized 21 year-old winger. If he was a centre I would keep him in the minors learning his craft. Anyhow Bowman is not Holland. Savoie will not die on the vine like so many others under Holland. We didn’t trade a useful McLeod for shits and giggles it’s time to see if Savoie has game.
Those are the three prospects with any real value.
I see people throw Phil Kemp in to trades – there is no trade value there.
Wanner may have some depth value but he’s not progressed well this season and has been out for what seems like a couple months now.
Out of those three players, I trade O’Reiley first.
I’m loathe to trade Savoie and would really like to keep Akey in the fold.
I wonder if the org knows the plans on Munzenburger and if he’ll be pro in the org in a few months.
I think Kemp has limited value to non-contending teams like CHI – they’ll need someone to give them minutes down the stretch. If he’s part of a package as a secondary asset in a trade for Connor Murphy, he can give CHI 30 games to finish the year, and if he shows he’s capable of delivering solid bottom-pairing minutes, CHI could hold onto him and flip him at next year’s deadline for a 4th or 5th for a team in need of depth.
While I think its an organizational fail that they never gave Kemp a shot, he is currently a 26 year old with zero NHL games at his position (3 shifts at wing) and he’s about to be a Group 6 UFA.
He could be a throw-in a deal, I guess, but its Puistola level value I would think. Teams have their own journeyman AHL players they could provide those game too I would think
IMO the Oilers leftorium is no longer, it has moved to the right. Munzenburger is LHD while Akey is RHD. Not sure how much value Akey has, he might hold more value than Kemp. They went out of their way to get O’Reilly and traded for Savoie. Can’t see either of them going anywhere.
Akey is about 4 tiers above Phil Kemp as far as trade value goes.
The org may value O’Reiley more than Akey – I don’t know (I value Akey higher but could definitely see it the other way) – Phil Kemp is nowhere near that level.
Savoie and those two are the only prospects with material value. I don’t see them trading Savoie either but 2nd round picks are only going to get them so much.
Which might be fine, as I’ve said, I don’t think big moves/big names are needed necessarily.
I wonder what Arvidsson & Akey + 2nd rounder might bring in? Maybe a solid backup for Skinner LOL. I kid.
I keep both Savoie and Akey, maybe ecen O’Reilly
Evans has value in the rental market.
I can’t imagine Denezkin has any. That’s a Pistula like throw in.
I’m not even sure that Beryzokin would have value in the trade market – a real prospect that is eligible to sign June 1 but does any other org have any idea if he plans to? Do the Oilers?
Re: Denezkin – Don’t underestimate how much MTL love their small fowards.
I like that though-pattern….
For players with signability concerns, you never know if a team’s GM/scout, etc. has a relationship with the player/agent so those players can have value to some teams but not other.
If if there’s still uncertainty about signability, that’s a risk a team might be willing to take if they like the player.
If MTL is deciding between a 3rd and Denezkin and a 3rd and a 6th from another team, maybe they like the player and think Denezkin is better than the player they think they’d get with a 6th.
Maybe but, at the same time, Denezkin was once a 7th round pick and 5 years later he’s a 24 year old middling KHL player.
Ugh. Please god do not trade shamus O’Really or Savoie.
Oilers desperately need young players on value contracts to extend the cup window.
Unless Dobson or Byram is the return, I would not trade Savoie.
Definitely an excellent insurance policy but an expensive one.
Ya, they might be able to get him for a 2nd and Picks but at full boat which is non-starter in my opinion. To get them to retain for 2 full years after, well, that’s probably at least another 2nd rounder.
That’s expensive insurance – is it worth it?
There were be varying opinions on that question.
The biggest issue with Gibson for me is the term on the contract given his numbers the previous two seasons. He was one of the worst goalies in the league in 22-23 and 23-24. There’s a real risk that his numbers in 23 games this season are an aberration and he reverts to 22-24 John Gibson at some point over the next 2.5 years and that’s too much of a risk for me to take.
If he was a pending UFA and the cost to acquire was lower, it might be worth the risk. That’s why I’d prefer Vemelka.
Both are having good years. Both were horrible in the previous 2 seasons. One has 2 years left @ $6M, the other is a pending UFA at $2.725M.
If he was a pending UFA the evaluation and consideration would be completely different. The reality is that he is not and he has 2 full years left on a sizeable contract.
Does Bowman have a taker for Evander Kane on March 1? Has he asked Kane for his16(?) team list?
I wound wonder if any team in the league would touch Evander Kane due to all the uncertainty that surrounds him.
There is all but zero chance of this – in my opinion.
Don’t think they are looking to move and i don’t think there would be any takers with another year left.
No
Just to add to your photo at the top:
Matthew Savoie
Third 20: 3, 0-3-3 (1.00 P/GP), 3-1 ES goals (75%)
Overall: 43, 12-22-34 (0.79), 32-15 ES goals (68%)
Psst, Armchair, to your comment in the last thread about players in Finland and the Four Nations- they are not eligible.
This is an NHL/NHLPA tournament – hence why there could only be four teams.
The revived World Cup in 2028 will involve players from the European Leagues.
If Verbeek is asking about Savoie and a 1st, you have to think Zegras is the name he’s dangling, no?
I would not do that.
I have little interest in Zegras even acknowledging his talent.
I think whoever the Oil trade with and especially if a higher end talent like a good top 6 winger Savoie will be brought up. I don’t think on any of the 3 trades you have listed here that he would.
m
My bet in a trade for Gibson they would want Skinner? Or at least ask for him
I don’t think Gibson gets moved for a package that doesn’t include a 1st or impact prospect (former 1st Rd pick, upside of a top 6F/top 4D), particularly if ANA is retaining salary.
Gibson is a starting- to above average-caliber goalie with playoff experience, not a pure rental, and arguably the best available goalie at the deadline. That’s going to be expensive.
Anaheim also has a young goalie they probably want to give a run as the starter, so I’m not certain they’d want to bring in Skinner to compete for starts (and who is a UFA after next year).
If the Gibson trade happens I think it won’t be until offseason as there’s to many moving parts plus you don’t want to mess with the team mojo. I also think it’s Skinner going the other way which will amount to a actual hockey trade.
I don’t think there’s too many moving parts – EDM just did a 3-way trade with ANA to get Henrique at 75% retained last year which arguably is more complex than the trades being described here.
I think the “team mojo” concern is overblown, it’s really only a determining factor if the team’s committed to Skinner as their guy and doesn’t want to create a 1A/1B scenario, but really that’s more to do with roster construction than vibes anyways.
Why do you think ANA would want Skinner as part of this deal? They’ve got a goalie-of-the-future on their roster and have other holes in their roster they need to fill with prospects/picks.
The Ducks would take Skinner to get out from under Gibson contract. The horse has been let out of the barn Gibson wants to move on to a contender. As for a Skinner-Gibson tandem polygamy rarely works just look at Boston.
Pickard might be exactly what Anaheim is looking for to back up their young starter.
Yeah I think its far more likely that Pickard is going the other way in a Gibson trade rather than Stu.
I still wouldn’t trade for Gibson, either at the TDL or in the offseason. If there’s a TDL goalie acquisition, I’d prefer rentals like Vemelka, Reimer, etc.
1) Bouchard – I will never understand the chorus of people fans who fixate on specific mistakes for a reason to move out a player and ignore the overall impact they have on the game. The only circumstances I’d consider moving on from Bouchard is (a) if he won’t sign an extension/wants out of Edmonton, or (b) if he’s part of a package for an upgrade on the top pairing, preferably a RH shot who is an offensive force. The list of players who satisfy (b) is incredibly short (Makar, Hughes, etc.) and I doubt any of the teams possessing such a player would move them.
2) Bouchard’s contract: As a point of reference, Makar signed for $9M (11% of the cap) in 2021 and 10% of next year’s cap would be $9.55M. I’d be ecstatic if they signed him to a max deal for anything less than $10M, and would probably go as high as $11 before I started to feel any consternation about his cap hit. A down year on the PP will hopefully bring the asking price on a new deal down, but the team needs to keep him on the roster unless they’re bringing in a true upgrade …
3) I think LT’s right that it’s unlikely the deadline above could happen without giving up a major future asset (Savoie/O’Reilly/Akey/the 2026 1st/the 2025/26 2nds), given the asking price on Gibson will be high. However, a deadline of (a) Evans or Ryan Donato, (b) one of Dumoulin/Connor Murphy/Jokiharju, and (c) Reimer, might be possible without giving up one of those assets and mortgaging a potential impact piece of the future.
4) In terms of roster players without a NMC I’d be willing to move, I’d rank Henrique above Arvidsson, particularly if the team is bringing in a player who can play C. I’m not sure which one would have more value to the acquiring team, really depends on their roster construction. A team with young up-and-coming forwards might value Henrique more as a “Horcoff” than a player like Arvidsson. I’m not in a hurry to move either player, although I do worry about Henrique’s offense and declining underlying numbers.
5) Nuge – I’ve always liked the player but I’m concerned the dip we’ve seen this season might be permanent. He’s 31, signed for 4 more years @ $5.125M with a full NMC. Hopefully the Oilers can pair him with some fast trains on his wings to create a good out-scoring 3L, but that’s a lot of cap $ to devote to a 3C who is a PP wizard. Mitigated by the increasing cap as he ages which is good, but I hope he can stay productive into his mid-30s.
6) On the topic of team building: Ben Oakley is one of my favorite hockey content creators on YouTube, he has a great multi-part series on the Decade of Darkness. I also started watching his Penguins “between the cups” series, and there are some strong parallels between the 2009-2015 Crosby/Malkin Pens and the McDavid Oilers (trying to build around two superstars on the fly, strong possession teams undone by goaltending and a lack of depth scoring in key moments). Makes for an enjoyable watch really shows the importance of finding value in later rounds and having young players develop and make it to the NHL in complimentary roles.
7) Not sure how many Lowetidians are Blue Jays fans, but I might be done with the team if they let Vlad Jr. walk after whiffing on Ohtani and Soto in two subsequent offseasons. Already starting to feel more like a Mets fan now that I’ve been in NY longer than I was in Toronto. Blue/orange jerseys, a history oscillating between championships and some of the worst teams the league has ever seen, potentially heading for a championship this year? Sounds familiar …
I wouldn’t abandon the Jays ship yet. Apparently the offer to Vladdy is now starting with a 4, he will sign in Toronto as he does like the city. This will make signing Bo a lot easier as he has expressed desire to play with jr. Adding Santander (a perennial Bluejays killer) keeps the team potent and the bullpen has been upgraded.
Bichette is long gone, he’s wanted out of Toronto for over a year. Atkins & Co. really screwed the pooch with the Springer signing and Gurriel+Moreno/Hernandez trades.
Santander’s deal could age horribly as his player profile (power-over-contact hitter with high strikeout and low walk rates) doesn’t do well into their 30s. We’ll see on the bullpen (Toronto was Hoffman’s third choice as he failed two physicals with other teams, Swanson is a complete question mark, Yimi is 35), but it can’t be any worse than lasy year – BJs had a worse bullpen than the White Sox last year, statistically speaking.
If they can keep Vladdy, sign JD Martinez to a 1 year deal ala Belt & Turner, Scherzer can make 15+ decent starts and Bowden Francis doesn’t turn out to be a complete mirage, you can squint and see the Jays as a reasonable wild card contender! That was a lot of ifs, wasn’t it…
The one player off the roster that makes sense to be moving at the TDL is Arvidsson. Henrique is a much more valuable to the current roster and Nuge, I’ll just say, I love it when Nuge scores. How dare you.
Lol I like Nuge but I worry what kind of player he’ll be 3 years from now @ $5.125M with a NMC.
I don’t see how Henrique clearly has more value, I think Arvidsson has a higher ceiling this season and next and is younger/not declining as fast, but Henrique plays C and can PK, so I see that as a wash.
Arvidsson also makes $4M for another season while Henrique makes $3m for one more season and neither have trade protection. I think the fact Henrique plays center & wing, plus is a valuable member of the PK unit and isn’t as injury prone, means from a team standpoint, Henrique isn’t being shopped. If anything, Arvidsson might appear that he has a higher ceiling this season & next, is younger, as you say, but that might make him more attractive to another team as trade bait.
We have Henrique and Arvidsson 2 vets that are here specifically for the playoffs. The regular season means squat. I’ll take my chances on these 2 over some regular season Barbara Ann Scott’s
Are they looking to improve the team at the TDL or not?
3 years from now that will be less than 5% of the cap….
As expected, the decision by the NCAA to allow junior hockey players to transfer into its programs is changing the landscape in the Canadian leagues.
The ultra successful, Penticton Vees franchise is leaving the BCHL to join the WHL.
https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/junior-hockey/several-sources-have-penticton-vees-leaving-bchl-to-join-whl-as-expansion-team-next-season
Hopefully more over-agers start going to college and playing with their own age group
Seems inevitable.
I know the Oilers really liked him on draft day, trading into the first round to get him, but is O’Reilly really an untouchable? Miles to go in his development, but he has been far from dominant in his draft plus one season. I can’t see him impacting the roster for at least three years from now at best. That’s three more chances at Stanley before we see him. I wouldn’t hesitate to include him in a trade that improves our chances in the next three years.
I would be much more averse to trading Savoie, who will be helping as early as this season.
I don’t think he’s untouchable, but probably not a player they’d move for a pure rental. The team will need good young players coming through the minors to be successful through the rest of McDrai’s careers.
If he was part of a package for a pending RFA or a young pending UFA they could resign in a future role, I think he’s probably on the table.
I think using O’reilly and or an Akey and especially a Savoie in a package would have to be not for a Gibson, but more for a top 6 forward with term , that are a producer of 20 plus goals on avg and gritty . Not saying they will either
The development of Sam O’Reilly & his linemate William Nicholl will be something to watch.
They generally don’t play on the same line – sometimes but generally not.
I am loathe to trade Savoie – there isn’t a rental in the league, give or take Rantanen, that I’d trade him for – not Marchand, etc.
I would trade ROR over Akey.
I have to cheer for a team with not one but two Tkachucks ??
**slams head on desk 1,000 times**
I think not. Go Canada !!!!!!
Oh, those Tkachuk’s.
if we are talking about deadline additions (or sooner), let’s just plug Savoie in.
I wouldn’t be mad with Savoie getting a look after the 4N, but with only 7 games until the deadline, I don’t think the team will be able to get enough of a look to know what they have in the player/if they still need to add another forward. If the Oilers want to add a top 9 offensive winger down the stretch who can score in the playoffs, I’d rather see the Oilers go out and acquire such a player, rather than betting on Savoie being able to immediately establish himself, which is a more risky bet in my opinion than trading for a player like Ryan Donato to fill that role.
Personally, I’d add at the deadline and let Savoie continue to play a ton of minutes in the AHL and keep developing, bring him up for a cup of coffee before the end of the season and have him on the postseason roster since Bakersfield isn’t heading to the playoffs.
The worst case scenario would be if the Oilers bank on Savoie being a Top 9 scoring winger and not trading for a Donato at the deadline, only to have Savoie struggle down the stretch/in the playoffs. The best case scenario would be he goes supernova down the stretch in the AHL, makes it impossible for the team not call him up, and he establishes himself as at least a good depth-scoring option in the NHL, giving the Oilers a deeper and more dangerous lineup in the playoffs, along with whatever deadline addition(s) the Oilers make.
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
On the other hand, seven games could enough for Savoie to prove he’s as good or better than Donato. So, there would be no reason to acquire Donato at the TDL. Maybe shoot for a different type of forward or put their focus elsewhere entirely.
yeah I just think it’s very unlikely that the coaching staff will see 7 games of Savoie and feel that’s a sufficient sample size to evaluate whether he’s ready for a Top 9 role down the stretch on a playoff contending team.
Donato’s a fine 3rd line winger on a shooting heater. He’s not an offensive winger. Savoie though just might be.
I mean he’s outscored his opposition over the past few years and is playing against good competition in CHI. That kind of player can fit in well up and down the lineup
He’s not a defensive winger either.
Bako is currently in a playoff position.
I would keep the powder dry on Arvi this year. He will come back from the 4 Nations ready to go.
Henri is a player I would consider moving. Skinner, despite his recent uptick, is also a chip (despite the no trade). I think he would waive if traded to a playoff team in the East.