It seems like years since we’ve been here, but the NHL is back in action beginning this morning our time. The Edmonton Oilers, armed with the only hotshot rookie we’re going to see play for the team this year, will faceoff in mere hours in the city of brotherly love.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- At home to: TOR (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: STL, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- At home to: COL (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: PHI, WAS, TBY, FLA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 5-3-0, 10 points in 8 games
- January result: 2-2-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 34-17-4, 72 points in 55 games
FALLOW SYNDROME
The Oilers have had a significant numbers of rookies in each season Stanley visited Edmonton. However, impact rookies mostly arrived in seasons the team did not win the championship.
The 1983-84 team had 11 qualifying freshman, with only Pat Conacher, Ray Cote and Ken Berry playing more than 10 games.
The following season boasted rookies Gord Sherven (who was traded to the Minnesota North Stars) and Steve Smith, who played in just two games for the team. Esa Tikkanen played in three playoff games that spring (1984-85). In total, there were six rookies (including goaltenders Mike Zanier and Darryl Reaugh) on Edmonton’s second winner.
By 1986-87, Glen Sather’s team saw enough changing of the guard for Jeff Beukeboom to play in 44 games. He was a monster. Stu Kulak started the season with the Canucks, played 23 games with Edmonton and then played out the rest of the season with the Rangers.
In 1987-88, Kelly Buchberger was one of 10 rookies, none played more than Steve Graves’ 21 (Bucky played 19). Selmar Odelein was a personal favourite of mine, injuries derailed a promising career. Mark Lamb made it into two games.
Among the five Stanley teams, the 1989-90 had the highest number of future NHL regulars. Geoff Smith, Martin Gelinas, Vladimir Ruzicka and Francois Leroux all played as rookies that season.
This year, there are no current rookies. That changes at 11 this morning, Edmonton time.
It’s one of my favourite experiences as a fan, and I sometimes think about what the parents must be feeling. Enormous pride, a sense of accomplishment and the realization that all of those hours driving prairie roads at 5am to get to the rink were worth it. It’s a very Canadian experience. Godspeed, Matthew Savoie.
I hope Kris Knoblauch follows through and plays Savoie with Leon Draisaitl. If he does, that represents a major change in team strategy. Recalling a 20-year old was blue rare during the Ken Holland era, and I believe Savoie would have been in the NHL already during the Peter Chiarelli era.
This might be Goldilocks and the Three Bears brought to hockey. Chiarelli elevated kids too early, Holland too late. Maybe Bowman’s strategy is the right one.
Condors vets move it around (Hamblin, Dineen, Caggiula) on the PP and Ryan buries his own rebound as the PP expires – 2-0 Condors (now 2-1)
Summarizing!
Nicholl netted his 16th of the year and added an assist. He was named 1st star.
The House of Stone potted his 12th along with a helper.
Clattenburg had a pair of assists.
Lachance had an empty-netter for his 10th goal of the season.
Copponi and Akey each had an apple.
Day stopped 36 of 40 to get the W.
O’Reilly (despite game-high 5 SOG), Wakely, Määttä, Münzenberger, and Fischer were not resoupients.
Berry did not dress.
James Stefan, fresh off his recall from the ECHL, finds a loose puck in a net front scramble and opens the scoring. Good battle by Stefan and Wright to find that puck.
Josh Brown just blew up an attacker coming across the line but then lost a fight to Travis Howe – a large man himself.
If the league wants to make an in season tournament they need to give the players more than a day off. Some pretty putrid boxcars out there today from tourney participants
Not from fatigue though I wouldn’t think. They played 4 games in like two weeks. McDavid has been in the eastern time zone for two weeks now. Now, I’m sure he’d love to get back home for a few nights but he hasn’t played that much hockey.
.
If we’re trading for a goalie….who do we want…Gibson or Binnington ? I’m Leaning towards Gibson, cost would be less and he will be defacto #1.
How in the world do I keep reading and hearing about acquiring Jordan Binnington all of a sudden.
Great game on Thursday night, very good.
Of course, after letting in 1-2 bad goals in each of the prior three games.
Everyone wants “consistency” but, now, because of one awesome game, they want to get a goalie just as inconsistent as Skinner, who has been worse over the last few years, is $6MM for two more seasons and in his 30s.
Wild stuff.
Desperate times call for desperate measures.
If you want something to lift your spirits after today’s loss, here is Matthews answering a question about the last goal in 4 Nations:
https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/s/PDDbvaoR0N
There are a couple of things that are pretty concerning about the Oilers.
I’ve mentioned this a long time ago but it’s worth repeating.
The Oilers passing along the blue & the general turnovers at the blue line is now a major issue.
You could argue it was only a few players & only once in a while. It’s a habitual habit now, it’s a repeating practice, no longer a small sample size & one has to believe they’re ignoring the coaching staff on this.
Bouchard math says he’s a sustainable defensive player, good offensive player and he produces even away from McDavid, the eye test will tell you he is making critical mistakes and I wonder if playing up in the lineup & minutes are getting to him.
goaltending is an issue….a huge issue. His last four games .839 – .750 – .909 – .857
The only time SK save% is higher than .909 was against buffalo & Detroit The last time SK save percentage was good was Jan 13 vs L.A.
In fact, SK save % vs playoff teams has been atrocious since December.
This is a huge issue as games get are getting tougher.
They really gave the complainers something to complain about today. Most of you should be thanking the Oil you got to be grouchy today. I know the last 2 weeks have been hard.
Indeed! Great observation Mr. Pretendergast 🙂
This team will consistently deliver the inconsistent play that drives many fans wild. Me, while wishing they’d won, was pleased by: Savoie showing promise, Klingberg continuing to impress, Arvidsson building on solid Four Nations play, Stu Skinner coming up big again and again with the team falling apart in front of him.
Now, I truly hope they got *that* out of their system and have a very different game to show us tomorrow against the Caps.
ps. Rooting for Canucks tonight against the Vegans.
I would encourage Stuart Sinner and his wife to start planning for their children to be born in the off-season, like most of the NHL…..
Having had 4 children in 5.5 years, not making millions in US dollars, running a business that requires a lot of hours, with no local family, I don’t have a lot of time for athletes at this level being very much affected by that. Figure it out, a career is only so long and always tenous for most, and it’s not like that means ignoring the kids
Nannies are not that expensive when you’re making millions.
Winners don’t have excuses.
So what’s the excuse for his play two months before having a kid? Goalies have their ups and downs. But as predicted in the offseason, we are close to seeing the end of the Skinner era.
How does Bouchard continue having miscues game after game.I have yet to see him miss a shift or have his ass chewed out for his lackadaisical effort.I have zero confidence of him in a seven game series when the chips are down.I also have a hard time believing Skinner can out duel the other tender in a seven game series.If you look at our losses this season MANY can be attributed to being out goalies or Bouchard having a brain fart.I’m sorry just my opinion.
No need to be sorry. You expressed your opinion and it is shared by many.
I think this deadline is interesting for the reasons you mention, and for an additional (key) reason.
Stan Bowman.
Skinner outdueled Oettinger last year (now an $8 million dollar goaltender). And played Bobrovsky to a draw (a $10 million dollar goaltender).
A team is allowed to have one and ONLY one player like Bouchard.
Bouchard is not my prefered type of defenseman, but Larry Murphy was on three or four Stanley Cup winners, and a Canada Cup winner.
1) He has been benched here and there through the season – in fact, he was benched for a few shifts today I believe.
2) No doubt he’s far from at his best these days (this season) but as far as no confidence in a 7-game series I would just note that he has proven, two years in a row, that he can be elite for playoff runs. 2024 playoffs was historical (and he was likely #2 on the Oilers for the C. Smyth) and the year before he led all d in playoff scoring while only playing two rounds (and led by 5 points).
I’m less confident than I was two months ago that he will turn in around this season/playoffs but he has proven the ability to do so.
Top 5 “elite defensemen”, as you have trumpeted about Bouchard, do not have extended periods of inconsistency.
And you can’t reliably predict they will vanish in the playoffs.
Given the topic of recent posts from LT, I put together the above chart that shows potential adjustments that could help optimize McDavid’s 5v5 production moving forward.
This bubble chart illustrates Connor McDavid’s individual 5v5 points and goals per 60 minutes (P60 and G60) alongside his teammates from 2021 to 2025 (data from NST). The x-axis represents McDavid’s individual points per 60 minutes with teammates, while the y-axis represents his individual goals per 60 minutes with teammates. Each bubble corresponds to McDavid’s scoring performance while a specific teammate is on the ice. The total individual P60 values for McDavid across all seasons are also displayed. Bubble size reflects time on ice (TOI), and bubble color indicates the season. The data is filtered to include only instances where McDavid played at least 200 minutes with a given teammate.
McDavid’s 5v5 Individual Performance by Season:
McDavid’s most productive season in terms of 5v5 points was 2023-2024, while his highest goal production came in 2022-2023.
McDavid’s Most Productive 5v5 Teammates (By Points Per 60):
McDavid’s Most Productive 5v5 Teammates (By Goals Per 60):
Key Takeaways:
Trends and Considerations:
This is the first full season on Knoblauch’s system. I wonder if it is affecting this. I don’t see the team being consistent at the types of offensive plays that increase scoring odds, also the ones that are more effective in tight playoff games.
Perry plays the way I am thinking, to me the reason he is scoring as he is with limited TOI. Adam Oates spoke about with Gregor offenses now being spread out and he thinks it’s a mistake – increases possession time but makes offense harder for most players
I see this with the Oilers, a player will have the puck in the corner, but there isn’t a forward moving into a scoring position or a soft area to pass to. So they rim it around or back to the point, again often no screen there. Savoie and Drai executed a nice goal by doing exactly that
I also wonder why they let so many weak side rims out of the zone. They rarely have success in the D zone getting those out. The puck has a long way to travel and the D often can’t get over. Weak play, or some ask from the coaches?
Last season under Knoblauch, McDavid’s nunbers were really good. If you look 5v5 Woodcroft vs Knoblauch, Knoblauch is better in most categories, except PP and slightly higher GF60 5v5. Knbolauch’s teams have had way better GA60 and GF%. Knoblauch’s teams have also been better in xG for and against and xGF%. So there is a little less attack and PP under Knoblauch. But overall Knoblauch and Coffey’s teams have been better than Woodcroft and Manson’s. I say that, and to be honest, I like Woodcroft’s personality more. Even with less physicality and a little less attack, the numbers clearly say the overall team under Knoblauch has been significantly better.
Denver Nuge?
I don’t understand.
An old LT reference.
The Denver boot.
https://images.app.goo.gl/tWDVtk4B5n8N9sw8A
Nuge and Hyman as well are aging in real time.
LT used to call players a “Denver boot” if they were essentially dragging down a line.
In a few places the language is confusing here. Apologies. All numbers reflect McDavid’s individual production while teammates were on the ice. Not teammates production while McDavid was on the ice and not on-ice production while both players were on the ice.
I would think it would be even clearer if we compared gaol differential per 60 vs goals per 60 to see the net effect. Any thoughts on that? Good work though!
I hope my pool pickard plays tomarrow night.
I am on Team Stuart Skinner. But for all you haters out there.
Sam O’Reilly, Stu Skinner, Arvidsson, and the Oiler’s next first round pic, whenever that is, for Jordan Binnington.
A good mid-six right shot center prospect is what is missing from the Blues deep prospect roster.
Hofer and Skinner would be a solid tandem for St. Louis.
Are you making this suggestion as a Blues’ fan or as an Oilers’ fan?
As a troll throwing red meat to the Skinner haters.
Watch what you wish for. You nailed the offer sheet on Broberg but I do have a hard time believing Armstrong is on Bowman’s mailing list.
Now would be an opportune time to sell on “big game” Bennington, for Doug Armstrong.
Well looks like I was right to be worried about this team not starting on time. Hope they wake up before the piss 3 games down their legs
Well, my daughter and I hung in there till the bitter end. And it was a bitter end.
That was an embarrassing performance for a team that has just had a two week break and is supposed to be a cup contender.
The team loves starting slowly.
When teams have a bad game, lack
of jump, there are generally some role players who step up. Oilers have a whole bunch of vanilla.
A player cannot control a lot of things, but they can always control their effort.
w00f
McDavid is a -8 in his last 6 games. If you’re not worried about his line, you should be
Yeah I have no idea why Nuge is still playing 1LW. Hyman’s been coming around but today was a poor game from him.
I think Hyman is actually a bigger issue. He doesn’t have the same jump and has always had poor defensive awareness. He started scoring for a blip when he first returned from
injury but has since been a big net negative on Connor’s line and the pp.
Hyman was awful for 2 weeks before the break, no?
I think he had a couple of goals but his 200 foot effort has been non-existent for a while now.
If Connor played like he did at the tournie it would be better. He is not using his wingers enough, seems impatient, and is playing solo too much, and is paying the price. At the 4 he was playing more with his line
If the other team is focusing everything at you, you have to use different tactics. Gretzky had to, and adjusted. Connor hasn’t enough as of yet to me. Because teams know his tendencies his 1 on 3/4/5 don’t usually work anymore. There’s a time and a place, but not playing the system consistently kills momentum for the other players who can’t do what he can
Perry mentioned not specifically this, but it pertains. He said the game is faster and players come in with great skating and skills, but don’t play the team game as well. When Gretz couldn’t beat the amount of cover he faced, he played into it, didn’t fight it. He would do things like draw defenders too close together to leave other players open, and of course he could get the puck to them regardless of what the other team did, he could get pucks through
Leon also could try less impossible passes that so often get picked off. More patience and gamesmanship. Manage the puck and keep pressure on, less turnovers and rushes against. Those things are killers especially in the playoffs
What a weak goal, Stu has to stop that, trade him for a bag of pucks and Grubauer already
Exactly. He was absolutely terrible on that one. Shoulda been able to hop back on and get in the way of that one.
Yes, that was the joke
$88 million dollars spread between them for six months work, and this is all the juice they can muster.
Just an awful, awful team performance this afternoon.
Better have their shit together for tomorrow.
That was the most depressing Oiler hockey I have seen in some time. I hope they are embarrassed and come out pissed off tomorrow. We wait……
Very concerned by the trend lately. Going into the break and now the first one out.
They’re not managing pucks. Bad changes. Teams are finding seams on the PK. Not sure if it’s an aging team or a team that’s waiting for the playoffs but this is very concerning.
Well-deserved win for Philadelphia. Oilers could have just forfeited the game but they wanted the Flyers to get some reps in. Very kind of them.
Probably what McD talked to Flyers guys about on the charter from Boston.
He seems a big-hearted kind of guy.
But I’m hoping the generosity stays in the City of Brotherly Love, and that he’s got his us v them dialled in for tomorrow’s game in the Capital. Burn it down, like we did in 1812.
Gritty has brought more energy than the Oil today.
and a crazy bad pass by McDavid there – he is about as effective as he ha been before the break…..
Even the pp is completely stagnant and predictable. Hyman didn’t touch the puck once. He is not adding his usual element. Need a change.
Similar to the 2 weeks before the break, Hyman is putting in a express lack of effort – he’s been mailing it in as more (more) than anyone on the roster.
Coach K has enough mistakes on this game tape for 10 practices. Teachable moments!
Practice? They have 5 games in 8 days on the road – I think the next practice will be next Monday, for real.
Just
Bad
Hockey
Well Philadelphia appears to be ready to play hockey.
Wow a 2-0 break away while on the PK. 2 shots on goal 15 minutes gone. Hard to fathom how BAD we look this game. Will tomorrow look any better?
But it was telling that Bouchard dove for the puck, rather than skating and keeping up with the play.
Lol
Not sure the thought process here?
Bouch was flat footed (given, well, they were in the offensive zone on the PP and the reason for the fast break was an atrocious play by Nuge) and both Flyers players were already on their horses – I don’t see any chance Bouchard has in a foot race at that point.
Stu with a pair of grade-A saves to keep them in the game. The issue this game has not been goaltending, and anyone who says otherwise does not know hockey
You can’t let in 5 goals period as a goalie ever . That is an issue . Sure he made 2 great saves , he needed to make a few more. That is the difference a really good to elite goalie makes period
Did you even watch the game? Or just throw Skinner under the bus automatically? There are about 12 names I could give you that had worse games than Skinner by a country mile.
lol, Well regardless of how shitty the D was , YOU CANT LET IN 5 GOALS FFS . His last game YOU CANT LET IN 3 Goals in 9 Shots in the 1st. Good starting goalies make big saves. Sure he saved 2 big ones after he couldn’t make 1 or 2 on 5 goals. No clue what you think good goaltending is, but you obviously don’t have a clue . Skinner has not been good at all over his past 5. With 1 win
You have no idea what you are talking about. You don’t know puck
It’s when Skinner let’s in poor goals. They’re backbreakers. He’s regressing, not progressing. For a big goalie he’s always down and doesn’t seem to be out challenging, makes himself so small in the net. That’s a worriesome trend.
Best chance on the Oilers PP was a near Philadelphia goal. But there was some signs of life.
Oiler goaltending is perfect on the two on none.
Embarrassing effort.
Skinner a big one
Oh Nuge…..
Several complete passes in a row. Small steps.
Thanks Hopkins…
Nuge’s deterioration this season is awful. Didn’t expect to see something so drastic. Hyman has also been a shadow of himself this season. Does not bode well….
I would absolutely NOT put Hyman out on the pp, put Perry instead
On the bright side, Savoie is an NHLer. Lots of smart plays all over. Great edges.
I’m glad Jinner draws a penalty on that play but why wouldn’t he pass to Savoie?
Watch it again – wouldn’t have been the right play.
I just don’t think they look very sharp. Mental mistakes, dumb turnovers, coverage issues, and not keeping their feet moving at times.
No excuse for a lack of effort. ):(
Oilers are making a lot of half-assed passes. Draisaitl needs to watch some replays. They’re losing more board battles than you’d expect, too.
The guy was right beside Nurse. No idea how he doesn’t disrupt that play
Dang Savoie, and nice save Skinner
So down 2 goals in the third and grand total of three shots in half a period. D is bad but Oiler wingers are invisible.
Oilers are letting the Flyers walk all over them. Someone needs to remind them how NHL games are played.
This game looks like a game shape issue to me. One team clearly enjoyed their break a little more than the other. Suspect the fear of Torts screaming at ya is a factor as well
Torts for sure lol
Well, that’s a penalty killed, so that’s something