One of my favourite experiences in the last 12 months came in late fall. I got to see Spoons at the River Cree. I’ve loved since I heard them. The band’s best song is “Old Emotions” and they were playing it as I entered the concert.
That song should have been an international hit (produced by Nile Rodgers of Chic) and it did well in Canada, but the band did not enjoy the success I thought warranted. Sometimes in life, things don’t rhyme when they should. This is the Edmonton Oilers at this time.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: CAR (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: ANA, MTL, DAL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: BUF, NJD, NYI, NYR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: UTA, WPG, SEA, DAL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CGY (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 7-5-2, 16 points in 14 games
- March result: 0-0-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 34-21-4, 72 points in 59 games
If the Oilers run at 7-5-2 in March, the club will not get to 100 points. A playoff spot wouldn’t be in doubt, but the first series would be against Vegas Golden Knights and that’s a tough opener for both teams. I can’t give this team the kind of March the talent on the roster merits, because the McDavid five-on-five minutes hang heavy in the air. I don’t know why this isn’t a big issue everywhere, but it sure as hell is a big one here.
MCDAVID FIVE-ON-FIVE GOAL SHARE BY MONTH
Away from Leon Draisaitl, it’s been a trip for Connor McDavid at five-on-five this season. In October, he went 4-4 (50 percent) and followed it up with his first outlier month. In November, away from 29, McDavid’s line scored 7-12 goals (37 percent) and raised a few eyebrows. I mentioned at the time that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins seemed off, not getting to plays. Zach Hyman wasn’t scoring like he did last season, but regression was expected.
December brought the real McDavid, 9-5 goals (64 percent) and the first month of the season where actual goals outpaced his expected goal share. Music!
January was so curious it’s baffling. McDavid’s line went 3-5 (38 percent) with a 64 percent expected goal share. Regression should occur, but regression and German trains have very different opinions on arrival times. Ironically, German trains ran on time at a 64 percent rate in the last year.
February is the month the artifice of McDavid five-on-five crash landed in a field just outside Sangudo. McDavid without Draisaitl went 0-8 goals at five-on-five, and McDavid with Draisaitl went 2-5 goals.
To which I say what fresh hell is this? Fans want Evan Bouchard and Stuart Skinner placed on a garbage barge at the Port of Vancouver, then released to the ocean forevermore.
Me? I’d like to examine what math has cooked since January 1. When Connor McDavid is on the ice (with and without Draisaitl), Edmonton owns a 37 percent goal share and a .854 save percentage. When the captain is off the ice? The save percentage was .922 and the goal share 57 percent.
This isn’t ‘Keith Richards on lead vocals’ weird, it’s ‘Bill Wyman has a new solo album’ weird.
Seriously. What the hell?
I should go out and not watch more often. Looking forward to watching the recording tomorrow. Happy to hear they all played better as a team and end this road trip on a winning note.
“He’s the best shootout taker I’ve ever seen” – Ryan Holt on Jacob Perreault who just scored another absolutely sick SO goal,
Watched the game on delay.
Team did a better job (for the most part) limiting odd man rushes, working back to the puck. Not perfect, and Carolina with several chances late.
The difference was Pickard made saves that Skinner has struggled to make lately. Losing streak comes to an end. And the first regulation win since January.
At last.
I wonder if McDavid is looking forward to getting back home for the first time since February 7?
Connor must miss Lenard
3 weeks business trip. Ya, I’d be looking forward to being home again.
McDavid’s assist on the Bouchard buzzer-beater was his 700th.
3rd fastest behind 99 and 66.
His peers.
Rare air indeed.
Can we load manage McDavid for a few games like they do in the NBA? I think the guy needs a break. I really hate that play on the PP with a minute left. Yuck.
I keep saying. Give him a whole week.
Summarizing!
O’Reilly o’registered his 22nd goal plus an assist.
Stonehouse scored his 13th in the final minute to force OT. Also had a team-high 5 SOG.
Määttä had a helper.
Berry, Münzenberger, Fischer, Akey and Nicholl (despite 5 SOG) were held soupless.
Day got the night off after starting the last ten games.
Clattenburg served the first of a two-game suspension. Like Wakely, he is eligible to return Friday next.
Well done, lads. That’s more like it.
Does Mcdavids assist count as a 5v5 point since the goalie was pulled?
It should. Five skaters vs. five skaters.
Shouldn’t matter that Andersen was on the bench.
Then the pointless 5v5 streak of February is over! Just got to close your eyes as to how it ended!
.
I said pointless, not pointed! 🙂
Cal .972 tonite, play him every other game coach.
Picks earns the start in Anaheim, right?
5-1 win?
Solid road game to begin March and put that terrible road trip behind them. Much better passing and support, and Pickard was great.
Bouchard finally gets a PPG! Not the most conventional PPG, but a PPG none the less. 😄
Evan Bouchard’s first PP goal of the season…..
If Pickard doesn’t start the next game then our Coach is more concerned with “feelings” than winning and if that’s the case it’s time for him to move on.
I didn’t see this, but agreed. The only counter is Ana-Mtl-Dal-Buf could likely go Skinner-Pickard-Skinner-Pickard
Better go get your pitch fork sharpened.
Not, it would not mean that.
I’m going to guess the organization still feels that, if they are going to win the Cup, its going to be with Stuart Skinner starting playoff games, not Cal Pickard.
I’m not saying they should go back to Stu for next game but “getting their #1 going” is a reasonable rational that has nothing to do with feelings.
What’s that thing we do?
Oh yeah. Play LaBamba, baby!
So Connor doesn’t get to play with the goalie out anymore? That was terrible and boneheaded x2.
Thanks Cal – he won that one.
Heckuva game by Pickard. Huge performance.
Suck it, Joe Camels
Solid road win
Holy hell, what the eff McDavid? What terrible puck and game management.
I have never seen him lose the puck as much as this season. He seems to be pressing too hard, and opposing teams are challenging him sooner.
Ok maybe don’t do that
Does any PBP/colour team talk over each other like Jack and Louie do?
Sorry, partner!
EDM will never score an empty net goal again.
Until 0.4 seconds left. Bouch clapper into the yawning cage.
Jeebuz McDavid. Fire it in the open net.
I’m curious McDs splits with and without Nuge. Nuge is really struggling at both ends. Not nearly as reliable in the d zone as we are used to.
McDavid with Nuge are 51.5%GF 17GF-16GA
McDavid without Nuge is 25%GF 6GF-18GA
(that’s removing the 1GF-0GA that happened with Nuge-McDavid-Draisaitl on ice together)
I don’t recall seeing a game where there were as many sticks on the ice, broken, yanked out, slashed out.
Terrible shift by Klingberg
If the Oilers had a 4-1 advantage in PP, we all know the refs would be rectifying it, even late in a game. What are the odds they call anything against the angelic Canes?
OK, they actually made a call
That was in the net, no?
Dumb play by Hyman. If he doesn”t do that little flick/follow through, that’s a goal.
Umm, that puck was in.
Yep.
Time for more sensors and less refereeing.
Hawkeye can do offsides and goal/no goal.
Not a kick. Hate this league.
Well, no sag after the goal against, that’s for sure.
Really bad game by the refs
I think he was just stopping but he did propel his skate forward.
Tkachuk had a goal against us which would absolutely have been called off by the definition they applied
Hyman scores, goal waived off.
NHL SOP.
I think Carolina needs a power play too. Call back the goal and call a penalty.
Need to re-extend the lead.
Need to re-extend the lead.
Big blocked shot by Ek on a LONG PK shift….
Didn’t matter….
Oh cmon
Solid road period.
Hope they’re ready for the push that’s coming
Solid defensive play by Kulak!
Ek clearly lacks energy. I feel he will be fine for playoffs
Louie said Perry was in the blue paint but he wasn’t. He was back enough from the post for Drai to find him
Zach take notes
The first line is creating chances, just got to bury them
Perry kissed a goal, and I liked it.
Great shift by Kulak and wonderful pass by Drai to Perry’s stick.
Great play by Kulak to keep that puck alive!! 🚨🚨