Hey Edmonton Oilers, look what you can do! After a couple of hazy road games, the club set their collective jaw and said to hell with this noise. The result? An OT win over the Islanders and a strong, impressive game versus the New York Rangers last night at MSG. Music! The team looked focused, precise, creative, balls out, willing to sacrifice and of course the Glimmer Twins were there to lead the way. Last night’s game was like a good night’s sleep or sunshine after the rain. A fine effort by all involved.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: CAR (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ANA, MTL, DAL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: BUF, NJD, NYI, NYR (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-2-0)
- At home to: UTA, WPG, SEA, DAL (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CGY (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 7-5-2, 16 points in 14 games
- March result: 5-3-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 39-24-4, 82 points in 66 games
I have Edmonton going 3-2-1 over the rest of March, if they accomplish it the team will have finished a hair better than my prediction. This team has been so unpredictable this season, a month of expected results would be satisfying.
THE NUMBERS
The Oilers received solid goaltending in New York over two games. The difference is Calvin Pickard faced zero HD scoring chances (according to NST) and Skinner saw 10. It’s a random thing and could be reversed next time, but it was good to see both men impact a win positively. It has been a trying year for the guardiens.
The Oilers had a pile of defensemen play effectively while being deployed for over 20 minutes. Music! Better health likely, maybe that godforsaken flu bug has finally left the roster. Also word that Mattias Ekholm is back this week, bringing up an interesting topic of conversation. HOW do you deploy the top 4D? I think Ekholm, Bouchard, Nurse and Walman have to be inside the top four, right? We’ll see. Kulak has been effective, maybe the Oilers will run with a third pairing capable of outplaying the other two. That would be mind blowing.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had himself a game, and that’s probably the most exciting thing about last night. If Nuge-McDavid-Hyman can outscore at previous rates, we know Leon can post well over 50 percent with damn near anyone. I am hopeful they run Frederic-Draisaitl-Arvidsson if he’s right on the top two lines, but we’ll see. Corey Perry is making most of the wingers look like they’re shy scorers, and in some cases the shoe fits.
It was most pleasing to see Connor McDavid launch a shot from the high slot and score. There are miles of goals on his stick, but he’s wired to be a playmaker. Maybe that goal gives him confidence to try more shots.
Leon Draisaitl is such a gift. He’s supposed to be exiting his prime, but prime was probably afraid to tell him. I’ve been blessed to watch so many Oilers talents who were touched by God over the years. Leon is truly unique and an absolute joy to watch play hockey.
We hit the air at noon on Sports 1440, with Rachel Doerrie, CTO of Betalytics and Host of Puck Social will join us talk about where the Oilers ideally land in the standings at the end of the year. There is benefit in finishing second, believe it or not. Jason Gregor will pop in to update us on Mattias Ekholm and Trent Frederic as two important pieces of the roster get closer to easing into the lineup. Jays talk (Yankees rotation is lost in the flood, that division will be wild) and NFL, NBA plus Declan’s Momma MMA. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
New for The Athletic: What the Edmonton Oilers can expect from Trent Frederic when he enters lineup
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6207255/2025/03/17/edmonton-oilers-trent-frederic-stats/
To my eye (and by number), Emberson has slumped a bit recently and is fighting it.
Lets not forget, prior to this season, he had 30 total NHL games. Also, he comes from a college background of 35 game seasons (apx). He did have a near 60 and 70 game season in the AHL but the grind of an NHL season is real.
Combine that with him taking the most hits in the NHL and, well, I think a platoon with Klingberg for some load management would be a good idea.
I also wonder if the 3RD between those two will be a nightly decision in the playoffs – that’s some good depth plus Stech at 8D.
There is being responsible and there is playing too safe. It reduces aggressiveness and hockey is an aggressive sport. The Panthers made two finals and won with less talent because they go after it. They play fast and are hard to play against
They aren’t a lock down team. Their coach knows what to do to get on top of opponents and it’s not all about scoring more or defending harder. More big picture stuff like softening up the D which leads to wearing them out but also rushing plays because they know what’s coming
Knoblauch has said he doesn’t emphasize hitting, and I don’t mean running around, but I think that it isn’t a focus has lead to the total collapse of physicality for most of the team. To the passivity. There are reasons why being physical has always been a part of how NHL hockey is played best. Not doing it leads to their problems
That being said elite players should limit it to stay healthy. The others can carry that weight as the elites carry the offensive weight
There is certainly an element of self preservation going on that will (hopefully) disappear come playoff time. Here’s a selection of Oilers and their 5v5 Hits/60 from the playoffs last year >> and the regular season this year.
Henrique: 14.15 >> 3.36
Ryan: 14.10 >> 4.89
Hyman: 7.35 >> 2.67
Nugent-Hopkins: 6.34 >> 1.11
Perry: 5.67 >> 2.14
McDavid: 5.38 >> 1.97
Janmark: 4.99 >> 1.98
Draisaitl: 3.05 >> 1.07
Every single skater has been less physical this year than last postseason. I suppose that’s to be expected, but the dropoff is pretty extreme in some cases.
Sound post. Too many players on the team are passengers in this regard. 29 and 97 are the only ones who should be exempt. Closing the gap on coverage to bump the opponent at minimum gives you an added moment to acquire the puck without contact, accidentally get in the way to foil the play, eliminate the puck carrier, etc. If you attempt a stick check at a distance or just try to provide lane coverage, the urgency for the puck carrier diminishes.
I’ve been commenting amongst others that the team wide scoring slump – hat tip Leo- could be coaching
Of course missing chances NHL players should bury makes it worse. SID at ON has a piece up, links Curlock on X. They are shooting more from the D which is bad unless you are making sure there is consistent traffic (which there isn’t unless Perry is on) and there is a definite plan
I’ve said I don’t like their offensive tactics, too much perimeter. Also that they need some set tactics to fall back on when it’s tight or the feels aren’t there. They have enough talent to get on a roll but it’s been rare this season. The forwards outside of the duo because of them being head and shoulders above the rest, just don’t seem to know what to do. Too much cycling with not enough attacking is the result
The link to Curlock reinforces my take. He thinks that it’s a lack of coaching, and if it’s the plan the coaches will be gone post season. He said he’ll do an article on it but they aren’t doing something they did last season that helps generate offense. My guess is it is the centre not getting back deep enough to support the breakouts
The PP when it struggles looks the same to me. Holding the puck too long, no play being set, they are waiting for it to develop and when the jazz isn’t there not enough happens. Only Connor Leo and hot Bouch can play like that. Most can’t, they need something to try to execute so they don’t think so much
If it’s rolling easy great, light them up. If not have a couple of plays. It they are there they aren’t good enough. I don’t think it’s a lack of talent, there’s lots of talent even if older, they should be able to execute
Every system in use in the NHL was once new, a coach’s new wrinkle. Because it was effective others try it. Given such a unique roster I think they need a coach to custom tailor a system to the top players. Set the new trend as they once did. Change the game again. Sather didn’t have his unique group playing north south wingers straight up the ice did he?
Can they? Absolutely. Last time it was because Sather had an all time player, plus more. It’s the same now. Innovate. This team should be rolling others at will a lot of the time
I have said similar (and was mocked).
It’s hard to attribute the Oilers team wide sh% slump as all luck. I think it’s definitely part of the system. Remember the Sutter era Kings teams or the Hurricanes right now. They are other high CF% teams but underperformed in the finishing/actual goals department.
If I’m not mistaken, the Oilers underperform their expected goals and by pretty much all models and their efficiency in finishing high danger chances (and slot shots and all the micro-data metrics) is low.
Of course, higher point shots is a likely factor but they have also struggled “to finish” by eye and number.
I don’t think it will happen but someone mentioned keep rotating Skinner-Pickard maybe this could be the rhythm to get both these puck stoppers over the 901sv average joe level.
I’m glad both Pickard and Skinner had solid games in NYC. The Oilers just need dependable goaltending to win those low event games.
I am concerned that Max Jones has disappeared after a great first game. We need him to bring intensity and forechecking to the bottom 6. When he is invisible like he has for the last four games, he shows why he’s just an AHL/NHL tweener. If he doesn’t show up in the next game, he should be a healthy scratch so someone else can audition for the bottom 6 spot.
I think that Max Jones IS a tweener – that’s what he was when they traded for him and he’s showing to be just that. He was mostly a throw-in in the trade and a depth piece. I think Jones is 14F/15F when Frederick/Kane are healthy. For now, with those two out, he’s 13F and slid in with Hyman out.
His first game created unreasonable expectations.
Comments appear to be closed already on this article! Why would that be?
It appears to be working again. It was not allowing me to post replies for a short while….
Just remember, they really are out to get you
Not for me.
With home games I’d try to limit Bouchard to the other teams 3rd and 4th lines and of course the PP. If he only plays 12 minutes all the better.
Evan Bouchard (according to PuckIQ):
TOI/GF-GA/ CF%
Elites: 414.6/ 18-17/ 58%
Middle: 477.3/ 18-15/ 59%
Gritensity: 364.4/ 19-18/ 61%
Not sure that would work out very well for us. We could reduce Bouch to Desharnais level minutes, but that would leave quite the chasm of elite defending to fill, especially considering Bouchard is 3rd on the team in GF% against the elites. Kulak and Nurse have 51.6% and 52.6% to Bouchard’s 52.4%. Who do you suggest takes those minutes if we’re pushing Bouchard to PP specialist?
If you want Bouch to be making outlet passes to McDavid (as I do) it’s unlikely he’ll be matched against bottom tier opposition.
but hey, we could always bury him & have those butter passes going to Janmark & Kapanen.
I agree with you 99% with the exception of the Ceci stretch pass on the tape to a inspired Janmark. This was the greatest outlet pass I’ve seen since watching Al Hamilton spring Ron Chipperfield a few years ago.
2024 June 24: the last time Mattias Janmark shot a puck past an NHL goalie.
If we’re being honest with this comment, there’s 2 sometimes 3 players on the team that are going to do anything with those buttery passes. But hey let’s pile on bottom of the roster players.
I would suggest the opposite approach given, you know, traditional numbers, advanced numbers and the eye test.
In particular give how good he’s been for about 4-5 games now and his history of being an elite 2-way play driving d-man down the stretch and in the playoffs.
Nuge at 3C needs to be explored. As both coach and Rob Brown have said, he touches the puck more at center and perhaps is more engaged and effective. It’s hard to imagine this player can’t help a positive 3rd line behind the big two centers.
Also, this team needs someone they can plan 4C and neither Kap nor Janny are it. Henrique can be it and, when Frederick and Kane are added to the lineup, they should have the wingers for the 4 legit centers team.
Spine this team.
Also, it’s was two shifts but Skinner and Arvy flanking McDavid was as dominant as can be in two shift. Take notice coach.
Your last sentence. AGREED.
Edmonton’s new super lines.
Skinner-McDavid-Arvidsson
Frederic-Leon-Hyman
Kane-Nuge-Podkolzin
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Their shift at the end of the first was fantastic. 3 Grade A shots & a drawn penalty as they overpowered the Rangers & swarmed the net.
I was absolutely stunned to see Kapanen start the next 5v5 shift (the following period) on McDavid’s line, rather than any effort made to capture lightning in a bottle. The whole reason 53 & 33 were brought in was to bolster yhe top 6 be it with Draisaitl (as planned) or McDavid. Months later, not much progress, but there was a jolt of chemistry shown there that got immediately ignored.
Striking enough to me that the shift was my Good Thing on last night’s CoH podcast, & the coach’s reticence in responding to it was my Bad Thing.
It was a small sample size. However, Knoblauch certainly will have it locked in his memory banks.
That is exactly Bruce’s complaint. Those 3 have played together less than 4 minutes this season but produced 7 scoring chances, 5 of them high danger. WHY is it a small sample size??
Can’t forget Kapanen-Ryan-Perry & Philp-Savoie.
At the start of the year, I thought Perry was a part time player at best so what do I know. At this point I don’t know how you can take him out of the line up. Both Brown and Janmark should sir before Perry. Neither of them will ever score again. Someone else will need to PK
I expect to see Perry contributing during the playoffs also. But Brown & Janmark are a large part of the PK and have shown to raise their level of play during the playoffs. Perry struggled during the playoffs last season. Who knows how he will perform this year or Kane for that matter? Best to keep all options open.
Well, ya, maybe, except I think Perry needs to be in.
Janmark at risk unless “Playoff Janmark” is a thing again.
Perry?
Kapanen was frustrating to watch he could of easily had 3-4 grade A opportunities but he fumbled the puck or made the wrong read.
Frustrating is the appropriate description of Kapanen’s career.
Kap is 14F, 13F at best on a healthy roster.
It was extra fun watching Kapanen fumble the puck away on 2 Grade A slot chances.
“There are miles of goals on his stick, but he’s wired to be a playmaker. Maybe that goal gives him confidence to try more shots.”
I was really hoping McDavid’s 72 goal season would give him the confidence to try more shots.
Props to Stu Skinner. He blocked out the noise, played a low event game, tracked the puck, made some great saves and looked focused. Its funny what good tending will do.
No doubt Stu had a very good game, was the better goalie on the night and made a couple big saves (one massive) at the important time.
With that said, I didn’t have this as a “steal”, as I thought the Oilers deserved the win, until I heard Bruce and Dave and their scoring chance and 5-alarm chance analysis last night.
Didn’t realize the Oilers have up more 5-alarm than they had for.
Currently in 2nd, but the Kings have 2 games in hand. Those two games against them are going to be bangers unless somebody fails out. I don’t see that happening
We play them twice beat them in regulation and Bob’s our Uncle as in home ice against them.
The thing about the Oiler defense is there’s so much flexibility with the addition of Walman.
With his comfort level on both sides along with Kulak’s abilities on both sides the options are countless. It would also appear they can get along without Ekholm with this added depth. There’s no doubt his return will up the anti even more, but they now have the luxury to ease him back into the defense rotation. Therefore this is what I see initially.
Walman-Bouchard
Nurse-Kulak
Ekholm-Emberson
I like that set up. Play all three pairs and keep them fresh
Small sample size, but Walman-Bouchard doesn’t look like a drop off from Ekholm-Bouchard. I think Walman plays with a little more pace than Ekholm, which influences Bouchard to move a little quicker.
Also small sample size, but Ekholm-Emberson has excellent metrics. 20-10 shots, 78 xGF%, 14-3 high dangers.
They will be ready for the Jets.
But first they’ll need to dust off Utah.
Cheesy dad alert..
If ekholm – emberson catch on…on 2nd pair
Could we just call E2-D2 ?
Mire seriously. I love our d on paper. We just need to put things together on the ice. We seem to be outplaying opponents consistently still. But the egregious errors need to be cut out
For all the doom and gloom about the Oilers recent play, each of the Oilers, Kings and Knights have 5 wins in their last 10. The other two teams have two extra points from losing in extra time.
Nuge with a surprise 3 point game! He now has 42, could this be the season he finally breaks the 50 point barrier?
No, but I love your optimism.
Glad they pulled out a win.
And Amen, LT. Connor, please shoot more.
Actually, this entire Oilers forward core could and should be more selfish. So many times I’ve seen them pass themselves out of shooting opportunity, especially off the rush and on the wings. And some of these (especially from McDavid) are grade A chances he’s giving up to try and find a perfect pass.
This team generates too many shots from the point, and defers to the D men too often.
Best thing I saw last night was this Oilers team (both McDavid and Arvidsson) fire the biscuit on rushes.
For forwards struggling offensively as much as they have, the first place to start is to be more selfish. And right now, it’s not even selfish to be shoot first.
It should be direct order number 1 from Knob and co. And if Evander comes back, and Frederic is a shooter too, that’ll be helpful come playoff time.
Jeff Skinner looked engaged last night which is good news. If he gets an early goal in the playoffs it could light a fire.
I thought he played a solid game and deserves to play more. He is working hard and had some great shifts, drawing 2 penalties. Let him get some confidence and he will start to score.
LOL- he’ll need a long stick to score from the press box.
ugh… he should be playing. I think he has taken his medicine from the early season and it has worked. Let him play so we can actually score some goals.
I have no doubt he will be pumped to finally be playing playoff hockey. He’s also playing for a contract next season in Edmonton or elsewhere.
Mark my words Skinner will score a massive OT winner along the way to glory.
That is Petr Klima’s music……
He played all 4 games on the road trip, had 6 shots with zero goals.
Has gone 6 games without a goal.
Maybe he should actually score some goals.
Also with zero goals in the last 6 games:
Nuge
Henrique
Janmark
Kapanen
Podkolzin
The focus for coaches is while still keeping the structure to support in their own zone, finding ways to unlock more offense. Running Skinner on a top line, for example, moving Nuge to line 3 to give him lower competition, putting Frederic on a top line to bash some goals in, these are all possibilities.
Having the 6 best D all playing at the same time is only going to help all of this too. If Kulak is in the bottom pairing with Emberson just means that it hopefully becomes rocking chair hockey in our own zone. The next 4 games should be a good chance to see this all work out.
Time to fire up the old bandwagon!
It’s been idling in my driveway all season!
What do I do with the shipment of pitchforks I received last week?
Skinner was great last night as was Pickard in his game. That is great if they can keep it up. Ekholm back this week will be great and hopefully Frederic maybe next week?
Nice to see Nuge grab a couple of points for sure, it would be great if that kick starts him.
LA seems to be coming on a bit winning 5 in a row. With 2 games in hand and only 1 point back , the Oil will have to get on a heater here at home. Vegas is floundering a bit as well and LA also has 2 in hand on them . It’s not out of the question that LA could win the Pacific.
The Oil need to start the week off with a big win tomorrow night. Ekholm will help for sure
I don’t think we have the finishing ability to keep burying skinner.
Good goalering game by the other Skinner.
Hard to watch Holloway break 50 points. He would look really good in our top 6
Agreed. What gets me is that it’s not like Jinner is so egregious defensively and the others aren’t. They are. This team needs to be far more dangerous then they have been, they need to bury their multiple chances, because no matter how much they own the puck they are pretty easy to get quality chances against
Bruce at CoH had Grade A chances at 16-10 NYR, and 5 Alarmers at 11-5 NYR. Stu won them that game because they didn’t put it away in the first period
I don’t know really what Knobby values, but I do know that I don’t like how they play these days. I don’t like how it looks, and they are far from as dominating as they should be. They should be creating far more trouble around the net, it should be all the time
It’s less a roster issue I think, they might be a little slower, it’s more that they play slowly and completely obviously. It’s not hard to play against a team like that, especially one that will give you a lot of good chances and the goalie might spot you one many games
I’m not trashing them, it’s just how I see them right now, or really this season. Stauffer had Brian Burke on pre game, his take on the Oilers issues was if your best players are playing their best, it’s pretty hard to lose. Meaning they haven’t been as we know. He also has no problem with Stu
They’ll run the goalies next season again, my main get is two centres. The D is good enough with Walman. I prefer speed and RS. Let go and move some wingers and use Savoie. I’m not sure Philp is going to cut it if he hasn’t jumped on this chance at his age. Might not have the temperament to be an NHL player. No 4C and they prefer Ryan over him and they think Ryan is done
The team doesn’t score enough and our tending has been putrid. Better tending and we win games but we still need to score more. Arvi has looked a bit better and maybe he will start to get going (until he gets hurt again) We need him to score and let Jinner play, free him, he derserves to play. It is frustrating to watch him play well then next game he will be on the 4th line again, imagine how he feels. He is a scorer and scorers need to get hot then the goals come in bunches, how can he do that going from pressbox 1 game, to 4th line, to 1st line for 3 shifts etc etc…
They prefer Kapanen over Philp. Knoblauch had them playing soundly last season.
I don’t think he’s coaching any differently. some of his players are having off seasons and also some of his players have been injured. I look forward to see how Frederic will impact the lineup and of course Evander Kane will be wanting to make his presence felt during the playoffs.
the perry goal was a good example of creating trouble around the net. Even though it was pp. That is getting and staying in the dirty areas. I think Frederic might help that out when he gets in. Nuge had a point blank opp in that area later on and he just will never score again it seems.
Good Ship Holloway has sailed a long time ago. Live in the moment. Try the koolaid…. it’s Deeeelicious!!!😜