It was a frustrating game, because we all knew the Oilers were going to have to take their medicine. If you take players like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisatil, Mattias Ekholm, Evander Kane and Stuart Skinner out of the Edmonton lineup, that’s a different hockey club than the one constructed last fall.
The timing for last night’s game was horrible, because that game mattered big time. Sigh. The only rational way to approach the result is to look forward to the next game against the LAK and hope it’s for second place in the Pacific. The Kings were no screaming hell yesterday afternoon.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN APRIL
- On the road to: VEG, SJS, LAK, ANA (Expected 2-2-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: STL, SJS (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: WPG (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: LAK (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: SJS (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected results: 5-3-1, 11 points in 9 games
- April result: 2-1-0
- Current record: 44-27-5, 93 points in 76 games
I had the Vegas and LAK games as losses, so technically the Oilers are ahead of the game in terms of my predictions. Anaheim should be a win, but the Blues, Jets and Kings are going to be dangerous games depending on the Oilers roster returnees before those games.
THE NUMBERS
So, confession time. I did “the numbers” for Bruce. He liked to see it all in a line, and he checked every one of them. Seriously. On a regular basis, he would find a mistake and ask me to fix it. Do you value them? If you do, I’ll keep running these. If not, I’ll use that time for more prose.
What I noticed among the lines and pairings yesterday? Hyman-Nuge-Arvidsson enjoyed a massive edge in shots (7-1), scoring changes (2-0) and high-danger scoring chances (2-0). If Kris Knoblauch decides to run the Glimmer Twins together in the playoffs, and we know he will, then a healthy Viktor Arvidsson might make this line hum enough to run as the second unit.
I felt badly when promising Milan Lucic would be an effective player in Edmonton. He really could pass well and was a productive five-on-five scorer with the Bruins. Honest. He was not the same player upon arrival with the Oilers, and I’ve always felt bad for deceiving you.
I suggested, although not as strongly as the Lucic case, Trent Frederic would be a player who brought the things this team needs. He’s a bigger fellow, has some skill and is an agitator who hits and makes an impression. Chances are he doesn’t play every game down the stretch here, but in my opinion he gave a nice ‘preview of coming events’ performance yesterday. I am hoping he signs with the team, they can use him.
The Walman-Bouchard pairing had a nice game, going 12-4 shots and having great success with the Nuge line. The defensive pairing faced Anze Kopitar’s line often and posted impressive results.
The Nurse minutes versus Quinton Byfield were especially interesting to me. The two men faced each other for 6:19 five-on-five, 2-2 shots and 1-1 HDSC. It was a 34 percent expected goal share for Edmonton, but it was a bend not break afternoon for Nurse.
It’s difficult to read any strategy into any game planning we might see in the playoff series between the two teams. Yesterday was more about survival than strategy. It sucks, but sometimes you have to play the hand dealt you.
I’m late writing today, but had a wonderful sleep so hope you understand. I went to the Riverhawks event last evening, got to meet Joe Carter and spend time with friends. It was a nice event.
I wrote about Beau Akey’s future at The Athletic today. I hope you have time to read it. It is here.
I like the numbers. Its just nice to have it all layed out and it’s usually one of the first things I look at.
We miss you already Bruce.
Boston Bruins suddenly at the bottom of the Eastern Conference.
You have to hand it to Boston, they sure know how to tank quick-like.
I only saw the first period but Oilers looked capable of playing with the Kings.
Give them their team back(McDavid,Draisaitl,Kane, Ekholm) and they stand a fine chance – again.
Looking at the xG% for the d pairings.
Nurse Walman 61
Nurse bouch 59
Nurse kulak 59
Nurse stretcher 53
Nurse Embers 48
Ek Bouch 59
Ek Embers 75 (small sample)
Kulak nurse 58
Kulak kling 58
Kulak bouch 57
Kulak Embers 52
Kulak stretcher 44
Walman Nurse 61
Walman Bouch 47
I wonder about having the pairs
Nurse Walman 61
Kulak Bouch 57
Ek Embers 75
With Ek getting some shifts with Bouch. It’s the best way I figured to shore up the third pair.
All you wise hockey guys can tell me the mess I made here.
Brochu goes to play the puck behind the net, thinks he has more time than he has, is checked and the puck is put in the yawning cage for the 5-1 in the 3rd.
Savoie with a great step up in the neutral zone and transition to Philp for a 3 on 1. Philp with a lovely pass over to Ethan Keppen who buries a late second goal to cut the lead to 3-1.
Brochu with to breakaway saves in the 5-7 minutes leading up.
The Hamblin line gets running around and the 4-1 is buried with 25 second left in the 2nd – dagger.
Hebig from Yamamoto.
Brochu getting no help.
This team has no players left.
Holland completely gutted our pipeline all we have is Savoie who’s a Jackson pick-up and a bunch of burnt out Erne’s. Bowman at least is trying to replenish it as he’s probably on a 5 year plan.
Seth Griffith (leads the league in assists) got banged up in the first and won’t return.
I’ve never seen a pro hockey team so depletes.
Nathanial Daya’s first pro game today – a 24-save shutout in the ECHL.
Just watching Detroit beating Florida in the 3rd period.
Notable that the Panthers have more than half their cap hit sitting in the press box.
Barkov – injured – $10 million
Tkachuk – injured – $9.5 million
Reinhardt – “resting” $8.625
Ekblad – suspension – $7.5 million
Forsling – “resting” – $5.750 million
Bennett – “resting” – $4.625 millon
Kulikov – injured $1.1 million
Sturm – injured – $1 million
Have never seen anything like it.
It seems they value rest more than winning now that they have sewn up a playoff spot.
Makes sense considering they have had back to back cup finals appearances.
4 top 6 forwards and the top pairing seems a bit much.
With the loss, Ottawa now has a chance to move ahead of Florida for 3rd in the Atlantic and bump Florida down to a wildcard spot.
Maybe they’re trying to avoid Tampa in the first round.
I really really hope it’s panthers vs leafs in round 1. Guarantees one of them to lose. Prefer it to be panthers tbo.
Montreal Canadiens used to do all kinds of stuff when they were routinely winning cups.
Nathan Day have yourself a night!
24 sv shutout in 1st career pro start with the Komets. Good on him.
James Stefan with 2g 1a in the 7-0 drubbing as well.
A master of karate and friendship for everyone!
On Goal Shares, Expected Goals, and the Elusive Nature of Responsibility
It’s a question that won’t go quietly: Are skaters responsible for their on-ice goal shares? Their expected goal shares? Or both?
This debate surfaces often — tangled in spreadsheets and replays — and lately, I’ve found myself revisiting it again.
Over the past year, our host Lowetide has subtly shifted to my eye. Where expected goals (xG) were more dominant in his discussions, actual goals have made a quiet comeback in his writing and on-air commentary. And perhaps rightly so. Although in the McCurdy-sanctioned game reports, shots and expected goals reign in small samples.
Yesterday, I argued that Draisaitl has shown greater defensive value than McDavid this season. The numbers support it: Leon’s GA/60 at 5v5 is 2.28, while McDavid’s is 3.08. Yet their xGA/60s are nearly identical — 2.35 for Leon, 2.36 for Connor. It’s not process driving that gap — it’s results.
Cue Uncle Steve: “McDavid is getting PDO’d hard.” And he’s right. McDavid’s 5v5 On-Ice Save Percentage (ONSV%) is a career-low 87.53 — worse than even his rookie season. Draisaitl, meanwhile, is enjoying a decent 91.04 ONSV%. Not elite, but solid.
That got me wondering about the link between a forward’s defensive metrics and the performance of the goalie behind them. So I pulled the numbers. Using Natural Stat Trick, I filtered for forwards with over 1000 minutes at 5v5 this season and ran the correlations:
xGA/60 vs ONSV%? No relationship — R² = 0.001.
GA/60 vs ONSV%? Strongly correlated — R² = 0.738.
Expected goals don’t move the needle on on-ice save percentage. But actual goals do — which invites an uncomfortable possibility: either skaters influence save percentage, or the goalies are simply better behind some players than others. And if expected goals don’t predict that, what exactly are they capturing?
This has real implications. Because if we’re asking who Edmonton’s true 1C is this season, the numbers — not just the eye test — point to Draisaitl. All numbers except expected goals, that is.
Draisaitl leads the Cult of Hockey’s contribution counts (which blend video review and stats) and bests McDavid in defensive metrics like major mistakes per 15 (1.27 to 1.34). That aligns with the players’ respective GA/60 and ONSV% splits — but not xGA/60, which again, are virtually equal.
So what are we measuring when we lean on xG? If it doesn’t relate to the goals that actually go in — and if players can meaningfully impact their GA/60 and ONSV% — then shouldn’t that change how we evaluate defensive play?
We’ve seen this pattern before. In their rookie seasons, both McDavid and Draisaitl endured low on-ice save percentages. For Draisaitl, it came during the Ben Scrivens era; for McDavid, during Cam Talbot’s early tenure. And here we are again — McDavid saddled with subpar goaltending, Draisaitl riding steadier support. Is that just bad luck? Or is there something about how each plays that influences what happens behind them?
If we believe players are responsible for their goal shares — and if goal share tracks closely with PDO — then logically, players must have some hand in their PDO. And that undermines a long-held tenet of public analytics: that PDO is mostly luck.
But if PDO is luck, and GF% is driven by PDO, then GF% is also luck. And if that’s true, what are we measuring when we obsess over possession stats, microdata, and system execution? I’m not ready to throw it all out — but the dissonance remains.
So I turn to you: Are players responsible for their expected goal shares, their actual goal shares — or both? And if it’s the latter, what does that say about the role of PDO, of luck, and of how we judge performance?
Intuitively I’ve never accepted that players don’t affect ONSV%. How can players not? They used to argue statistically that face offs didn’t matter. Never bought that either from my understanding of the game, and that coaches value them so much. There have been other head scratchers that faded out over time
I don’t think it can be parsed out in black and white. Low PDO can be a cold streak, poorer play, or both. High PDO the inverse
A goalie may play better with some players. It could be confidence, how the player defends and what he leaves, the group of skaters if they play together regularly- do they give up what the goalie is weaker at or what he isn’t
As for Connor by eye he has made a lot of coverage mistakes this season. Leon has mostly been solid. Bouch has also struggled with coverage
The best players, the most dominant, have always been those who defend reliably and can still produce, and teams built around those things usually have goalies with top stats
Thanks Scungilli Slushy.
No, thank you!
I am not sure I follow re xGF. Why would xGF correlate to ONSV%? xGF is supposed to measure what should happen. GA/60 and ONSV% measure what actually happens. The interesting question is why do some team under/over perform their xGF metrics? I don’t think xGF is a perfect stat but I don’t see how it’s problematic that it doesn’t correlate with ONSV%. But it’s quite possible I don’t understand you issue.
Also, I never said McD’s PDO was purely luck. But PDO is important Context when evaluating McD’s season. You just made the case that Drai >>> McD this season and Drai should get turn with Hyman and Nuge.
But maybe McD’s PDO is partially a reflection of his linemates and his competition. Likely, McD’s relatively poor season is partially a function of his struggling wingers. If you want Drai to keep driving the bus, maybe leave Podz on his LW.
Thanks Uncle Steve,
I want to be clear here that I am discussing large samples, numbers from the end of March and start of April.Generally: If xGA60 reflects improvement in defensive process – one would think there would be SOME correlation to ONSV% in large samples. The numbers I ran today for forwards show that they are unrelated, meaning there is no relationship between defensive responsibility as measured by xGA60 and on-ice saving for forwards.In the specific: xGA60 for McDavid & Draisaitl show a similar defensive performance looking at their end of March numbers . Given the Cult of Hockey numbers, GA60 seems to be a better indicator of defensive performance in this case.If GA60 is a better measure of defense (in large samples and in March and April) this measure is very heavily correlated to on-ice saving. This becomes problematic if ONSV is viewed as a product of variance or luck.
This reminds me of how Georges showed that the best predictor of scoring goals year over year wasn’t CF%, or P/60, but goals scored.
Probably the hardest part of filtering the noise out of a dataset is to filter out the noise.
Given the broad issues with NST shot tracking data and how those influence their HD scoring chance numbers, I wouldn’t at all be surprised to hear their numbers were suspect under scrutiny.
Another reminder that publicly available models (while useful) leave much to be desired.
I like where you’re going with your observations, though. Very intuitive, and a worthwhile discussion.
I think maybe LT said it best, that single events can have outsized impacts but remain single events. And that level of nuance is impossible to capture in the aggregate.
So to my mind, players are both directly, and tangentially, culpable for mistakes, but those should also average out over time. IE the Nik Lidstroms of the world see fewer of their mistakes hit the scoresheet than the Kevin Gravels. At the end of the game, someone is responsible for the puck in the net, rightly or wrongly.
I really enjoyed reading this. Sounds like xGA has some work to be done.
But I also liked what you said about PDO. I don’t know how we think we can accurately measure luck. Nor do I know how it’s actually measured.
Surely a player influences, GF%, xGA, ONSV% and GA. I can’t speak to how these are measured, or what could change… You spoke to correlations very well.
But just as certainly as a player influences, they are not wholly responsible. The part that’s ridiculous in trying to nail this down is that it’s a joint accomplishment with the 11 other players on the ice at the same time. They all influence it in non equal amounts.
When it came out I recall the thought was it ‘indicated’ being hot or not, what elements were where, and that bad teams could stay below mean and good teams above. Given its just measuring shots and saves it’s of course pretty basic
I have never really liked X models. Unhatched chickens
daniel – are you interested in how GF xGF correlates to ONSV%?
If he ever makes its, yes, Oilers fans will love Clattenburg. Haven’t seen anything with the puck yet but, yup, he’s looking to hit everything, blocking shots and laying out to block shots.
— I vote prose and do the “McCurdy’s” when you see fit or over a longer sample size periodically
— It’s going to be some tough times in Canada next while and this isn’t exactly how Cup runs are drawn up with injuries to key cogs
— speaking words of wisdom would be welcomed
Clatternburg to play LW with Grubbe and Josh Prokop, in his fourth AHL game (former Golden Bear).
Brett Brochu with his 5th straight start (2nd time going back to back).
Brochu lets in an awful bad angle sifter – squeaked between the legs.
Clattenburg with a -1 on his first pro shift.
3-0 half way through the first.
The second goal was off a long o-zone shift, Brochu was slow getting across on a seam pass. Third was a 2 on 1 on a bad pinch.
“Derek Ryan never showed up” – Holty seems bitter given where the roster is.
Don’t let the modern “coaches” talk your kids out of learning a proper slapper.
The best goal scorers still have this as weapon #1. Wayne did. Ovechkin does. Leon and Matthews and D like Bouchard.
Teach em to hammer that puck.
Walman!
And I agree. Not all trends are a good thing
Does everyone remember Dustin Byfuglien? A hybrid forward and defenceman. Why hasn’t Edmonton ever tried that with nurse. I think he can play a hybrid role. If I ever got to ask an oilers coach a question this would be it. Totally understandable nurse is a miniute muncher for the blue but man oh man he sure like ovi spot LW circle. Just something I would try as coach.
Nurse is valuable as his position of defence – that is where he positively impacts the game.
If anything, Nurse’s play with the puck as he gets in to the offensive zone has been a weakness of his over the years
How many times has Nurse played like a forward, been behind the net or deep in the offensive zone, and we got scored on because he was out of position or barely in position, and always does that flop-down stomach slide? So I’m suggesting something to try later, not right now.
On the former, not really that many to my eye – Nurse is one of the best d-men in the league at tracking back in the to play. I don’t think Nurse gets caught up ice with his partner defending odd-man rushes that often.
I think Nurse has cut the “leave his feet” in the defenisve zone down alot.
In any event, I would suggest the Oilers management, coaches and players see Nurse as a defenseman and not a forward and think he can help the team most as a d-man.
He is having a very good 2-way season as a d-man.
Of course. Big Buff was an enigma. Took a year off hockey because he was bored. Picked it up the next year without missing a beat. Absolute talent. Unstoppable physically.
Decides he wants to go fishing, cancels his contract and walks away. He’s a beauty.
I suggest this once every few years when the need arises and I get put in my place rather quickly.
Summarizing!
Berry incurred no soup in a Muskegon loss.
Prospecting takes a break until Thor’s Day.
With the first round complete in the OHL playoffs, Round 2 will pit London vs. Erie, and Barrie vs. Kingston.
Fort Wayne has extended their relationship with the Condors and Oilers for 3 more seasons.
LT, you do the numbers or don’t do the numbers, both is ok. You do them sometimes, big games, or simply when you feel like it.
As life changes routine is good, but so is change. It happens. So do what you want to do, and I will appreciate the result. Thanks.
One vote for “keep em”
I still read almost every post and truly appreciate the breakdown.
Maybe the line and pair combo results should be called ‘The McCurdy’s”?
+1
— What with their allegiances to the leaders of their respective permanent residences as well as just not as rabid hockey fan anymore : I”m less invested in Ovi breaking Gretz scoring record.
— I’m still amazed that he did it in the same amount of games of Gretz who basically played for an all star team for almost a decade in an era where scoring was way higher on a team that scored more goals than any other team. Ovi is that good.
— The young peak Kinger fan would never believe it was possible.
— When Gretz broke Howes record Gordie was 66 and seemed so old. Today Gretz is 64.
— incredible that Gretz broke Howes record at the age of 33 and was out of hockey at the age Ovi is now…
— 2nd best goal scorer all time. Weird to think.
— “Holder of every scoring record that matters”. – Nope
Quantity over quality. There are a fair few guys that scored more per game, more per shot
But Ovi has the most now
How many minutes has Kulak played with Bouch this year?
158 5v5, 171 all sits
Pivot: Caggiula out today (probably from that attack by the goon) and Clattenburg is in. Also, Grubbe back from injury.
4pm just got a bit more exciting for me.
The question remains whether this trio can score enough.
Ovi breaks the record on a PPG.
Ovenchicken is a Power Play Goal scoring savant 😁😁
He will now use his empty net goal scoring savant-ness to pad the stat.
I’m going way off topice here. Val Kilmer passing broke my heart. He was my favourite actor. Tombstone is my favourite movie. I know LT allows stuff like this from time to time. The guy donated his fortune and lived frugally. Tom Cruise paid some of his medical bills because he gave it away. When Val passed, Cruise stopped production in MI whatever. He didn’t speak for two days. I hate his Scientology bullshit, but that man loved Val. It sucks so freaking bad. He was a good person. I’m bummed.
He was my hero. I’m devastated.
Once I was sitting on the dock of a marina, when Tom Cruise walked past. I’m not kidding he’s about 4’10” tall. A perfect midget.
His very first film was the 1984 classic “Top Secret!”, IMO one of the funniest films ever. He was excellent in it, even doing his own singing.
That first forever remains ingrained my brain.
So much comedic brilliance sprinkled throughout.
The cow disguise and the scene done in Swedish being top of mind with the jail scene a distant 3rd, lol.
Jim Matheson believes the plan is to start Rodrigue on Monday in Ahaheim.
Clatterburg has signed an ATO and has been assigned to Bako.
Won’t play tonight.
Could he be a black ace?
Not a chance.
No he cannot, he is on an Amateur Try-Out contract this season, so his 3 year NHL contract doesn’t kick in until next season.
If any of NHL Draft picks Luca Muzenberger, Joel Maata or Matt Copponi or even Maksim Berezkin, sign in the next 2 weeks and include this season, they could be Black Aces.
The team is at 47 active contracts, so do have room for 3 more.
Just saying there is a chance, but these are all very slim.
The fact we are 3+ weeks past Vermont’s season ending and he hasn’t been signed and in Bakersfield makes me thing its not happening at all, let alone for this season.
The Condors have been decimated on the back end (and up front) for a while now – he would have been a great addition.
Thanks. Ballpark figure how much money would Clattenburg make if he plays in the remaining Bakersfield games and hopefully playoff games? This organization needs something good to happen I’m calling a Gordie Howe hattrick for the young lad tonight. Boooook it…….
Not sure, likely the same as an ECHL call-up: $41,625, pro-rated. He would not have to pay for any living expenses, this would be picked up by the team.
The per diem in the AHL this season is $83.00
I do value the numbers and read them every morning. Likely not as much as Bruce though. But if you enjoy writing prose, I would enjoy a longer read every morning too.
I like the numbers. I like how you talk about them.
ps. I see it as part of Bruce’s legacy. He (& David at Cult of Hockey) created something special, something unique. Unlike machine learning, it’s not so easily carried on. What you do is different than the CoH analysis. But it’s all important to me as an Oilers fan. Thank you.
I think there are a few things we continue to gloss over. I’m trying to apply logic.
Re your point 2, I think people under-estimate how long it could take for Skinner to recover from his head/neck injury, especially as a goalie. So much depends on how he feels after each accelerated level of activity. It can take more time than just a few weeks, and like you said he could be cleared medically but still needs extra practice time to feel comfortable in the net. Thankfully Picks playing well has bought them time, but at some point, both will be needed.
When Skinner came to, they should have told him he was Martin Brodeur.
On what planet have we downgraded 3RHD?
First, when healthy, the top four this year, is significantly better than last year. Walman >>> Ceci.
Second, 3RHD was a huge issue in last years playoffs. Desharnais had one of the worst GF% on the team. Conversely, Stetcher is +13 in 21 playoff games.
Point 1 is bang on. This team is clearly not going to be healthy for the playoffs. That is a big problem.
1) I think the coaching staff are more focussed on winning games that night than “building chemistry” – we kind of saw in the exhibition that they don’t seem to value reps toward building chemistry that much.
2) Maybe, or maybe not. McDavid is scheduled to be back in on Wed or the game after and I think he’s more than 100% given his practicing. If anything, this time off gives us a fresher McDavid. Similar with EKholm being scheuled back this coming week. If he’s back before a game or two left in the season, then I presume he’s 100% – he’s not a player that needs a longer runway to get his game back.
3) I previously opined that Stecher’s size may be an issue at the playoffs – I can’t remember which poster, but someone here provided his career playoff numbers (metrics) which sparkled.
Caps game is on SN 360.
I hope he does it at home next game.
As an interesting note, I don’t think Ovi has ever scored in Sorokin – at least I know I read that.
Ovenchicken is an Empty Net Goal-Scoring savant, he likely will score this way vs the Isles, if he pots one.
If I were Ovi, I would want to score the record breaker NOT into an empty net. I mean, he’s going to break the record anyway at some point.
But I’m not Ovi…
He refused the coach putting him on ice when the net was empty last game, I don’t imagine it’s changed. He’s stated he wants a goalie in the crease.
He has like 6 more career empty net goals that Gretzky does….
Also, the coach asked if he wanted to go out with the empty net last game and he said no.
Thanks for the info, I am now informed, 65 ENG’s, 325 PPG’s
Gretzky 56 ENG’s, 204 PPG’s.
Ovi also leads the league in career OT goals with 27.
I’m not sure how many of those were 3 on 3 but probably most.
Gretz didn’t get the opportunity to play 3 on 3.
Not trying to discount Ovi’s goal record at all -just noting.
I rarely post, but read your article everyday and do value the numbers. That being said, totally understand it takes time and work. We appreciate what you do.
As sad and unexpected as Bruce’s passing was this week, I feel we can take some strange solace from the timing of it. I’d like to think that powers beyond our comprehension decided the Oilers’ eminent historian was above witnessing the breaking of one of the game’s most treasured records. Bruce has left the rink for the last time with his impeccable memory of the Great One’s career perfectly intact and pristine. There’s something beautiful about that.
Godspeed Bruce. I hope you’re taking the exit ramp off Andromeda now with your sail set firmly on the stars beyond.
Since time immemorial; or at least since Jarmoe Iginla played for the Falmes, this blog has been about the numbers. I appreciate them, but understand they take time and effort.
Numbers are in the article now.
LT, enjoy seeing the numbers. I would suggest putting them in when time allows, but if they are missing occasionally, no big deal. Thanks for all you do to get a post out every day.
The coach was able to find over…….. 13 minutes for Jeff Skinner last night.
It’s wild to me but this 15 goal scorer (from the depths) who leads the team in goal share since 5 on 5 will not be on this coach’s healthy lineup card.
I don’t understand it either. There has to be something going on.
I love how when he’s playing the tip line, or with McDavid or Draisaitl or Bouchard, he looks like he’s playing in a kid’s game. He gets into the OZ before everyone, and then is able to play Cat and Mouse and face backwards to be able to direct the play and pass to the other stars. He even does that when not playing with them, of course, but I just don’t understand why he isn’t getting more opportunities to showcase those skills.
It’s crazy.
I have no doubt Skinner gets scratched before stone hands Brown and Janmark.
It could be injury-related, Stauffer hinted that there are players playing through ailments and injuries.
Valid point – he did miss that PP1 shift (where Arvy replaced him and scored against the Sharks). With that said, we have 70 plus games of information that leads me to believe this is just the coach’s deployment.
Not to mention only 13 minutes when a left winger in the top 6 was only able to play 7 minutes – one would think Skinner would get some looks.
And for the coaches efforts, he was rewarded with zero goals.
When the 3 missing forwards return to the ranks, the forward with the 4th least ice time due to a half injured returning forward taking a few shifts last night will most likely be looking on from the press box.
Jeff Skinner – 15 goals
Mattias Janmark – 2 goals (zero shot passed a goalie).
Perhaps if Skinner was on the ice.
5 on 5 GF% since Jan 1:
Skinner: 68%
Janmark: 40%
Keep running the numbers LT. Appreciate the work!
So what’s the ideal, healthy forward lineup? D i feel is easier.
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse- Walman
Kulak- Emberson
I doubt they take Hyman from McDavid. Skinner has played better. Arvidsson Coming on. Kane and Frederick should make it interesting.
Skinner.McDavid.Hyman
Frederick.Draisatl.Arvidsson
Kane.Nuge.Perry
Janmark.Henrique.Brown
Without Kane it goes Podkolzin. Perry seems to have secured a playoff lineup spot. Janmark and Brown to PK so they stay.
Now way that Perry can play effective 3rd line minutes.
I like that third line, Two (Grumpy) Men and a Baby.
There is a zero percent chance Lnobber scratches Podz in favour of Skinner.
No way a healthy Podkholzin is not in the starting playoff line-up. Chances are Kane starts on a 4th line.
Skinner – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Drai – Arvidsson
Fredricson – Nuge – Brown
Kane – Henrique – Perry
I sit Janmark and Kapanen out. In their last 25 games:
Janmark 0 goals 3 assists, 19 shots, -1
Kapanen 0 goals 4 assists, 20 shots, -9
They might even decide to keep Nuge with Connor & Zach .
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Podz-Leon-Arvidsson
Kane-Henrique-Frederic
Kapanen-Janmark-Brown ( Kapanen RHC & Janmark LHC together )
That probably only makes sense to me though.
And of course they can always load up the top line swapping Leon & Nuge.
Swap Skinner for Kap and I think that’s the game 1 lineup, health pending
Skinner doesn’t pk. & doesn’t play all three forward positions. IMO Kapanen’s speed, size & versatiliy is more valuable.
Skinner can play center every bit as much as Kapanen can, which is not at an NHL level.
The Oilers already have two forward in the lineup due to PK specialism, its hard to imagine them having a 3rd (that’s on the 3rd PK pairing).
For me, its easy that Kap is the 2nd scratch after Jones.
Podz will be in the playoff line up, he will be a fixture with Leon. it should be a toss up between Perry & Skinner making the playoff line up.
Kapanen’s speed & versatility might factor in.
With Janmark, he is not a positive player, the play is most in the Dzone when he plays, even more so Kapenen.
Neither of these players are top 9 players and both are close to 40% on the dot.
They do not consistently make this team better or harder to play against.
Its trending towards Skinner being healthied in behind Jones and Kapanen – its hard to imagine Kapanen in the lineup if everyone is available.
I’m not sure what versatility you speak of – I know they use him at center when needed but, well, he’s not, well, good at it.
They use Kapanen up & down the lineup in all three forward positions.
They do and he continues to fail. His goal share as an Oiler is 38% (22% over the last 5 games) and he doesn’t produce.
Jeff Skinner has 15 goals and is a better defensive player than Kapanen and has a 68% goal share since Jan 1, to lead the team.
I am sure glad we have stars and superstars to watch and follow most nights. That was 60 minutes of never going to win hockey from the Oilers yesterday.
Our PK is 21st in the league and without the Superstars our PP looks brutal. 5v5 Fredrick was the only Oiler consistently in the home base.
Hyman, Nuge are going to start on the roster for the NHL playoffs. The rest of the forwards have to contribute much more to towards the outcome of the game, not to be healthy scratched.
Prospectment!
With all the first-round OHL series with NAmateurs concluded and the Frozen Four off in the distance, Bauer Berry and his Muskegonites (a forgotten klezmer band) have the spotlight to themselves. The ‘Jacks sit fourth in their conference but a point off the 3-way tie at the top, and have a game in hand on two of the three.
(A refresher: In the USHL playoffs, the top six teams in each conference make the playoffs. The top two seeds in each get a first-round bye. 3 vs. 6, winner plays 2. 4 vs. 5, winner plays 1. First round is best-of-3, then bests-of-5 thereon.)
With 1 + 6 in 55 GP this season, Berry only sits eighth among d-men in team scoring. One hopes for more production when he joins St. Thomas in the fall.
Puck drops at 1 p.m. Frenchman Butte (SK) time.
I appreciate “the numbers” take time to compile. In the end it is your call, but I do value them. I’m a goalie appreciation person so I confess that’s what I mainly look at. Just the humble opinion of someone who is new here, but I feel we should all strive to be a bit more like Bruce and if he valued them, keeping them included just feels right.
Certainly keep the numbers! Adding context to our perceptions is important! Your prose is next level, but having some quant to clarify things makes this blog unassailably special and unique.
Totally agree on Fredericks. Hope his ankle improves to the point he can play 12- 15 minutes a game. Brings an element sorely lacking on this team. With him and Kane in the line up I believe we will see more guys play a more robust game.
Can only speak for myself. I come here every game for the stats. I want to see whether my impression of a line matches eye test and stats. Every now and then I’ll look at Cult of Hockey for contributions to chances
Thanks for explaining your late post today. I walked outside with coffee in hand and said to my girl ‘I’m mad at LT today’, when she responded ‘Why, what’s he saying today’, where I said ‘nothing, his post isn’t up’… true story but totally joking, glad you had a nice evening and got to meet Big Joe.
Not sure exactly what you mean about the ‘numbers’ for Bruce. I value them for starters but have accustomed myself to the ‘graph’ version and suspect it would save you some typing, if that helps.
Keep the numbers. They hold us accountable to our biases. Weird game yesterday. Nothing about LA scares me. We have half a team out and two of them are the best players in the world.
Glad you had a good time at the game last night, LT. For myself, today is official “season switch” day. Garage cleaned, bikes serviced, brisket smoked and a nice beer or two after the sun passes the yard arm.
Stay classy my friends!
“Nothing about LA scares me.”
Same. However, I was impressed by how little the Oilers crashed the party in front of the net. I like that Podkolzin, Hyman, and Fred. got there. I believe there will need to be (much) more of that.