I do a Friday 5:20 hit with Jason Gregor on his show, and on Friday I said the Oilers should win Game 3, and if they won Game 4, would also win the series. Both wins on the weekend involved mammoth third periods, ghastly coverage, sensational skill and two important wins. It serves as a reminder: Never bet against Connor McDavid.
THE NUMBERS
Calvin Pickard won both games on the weekend, and last night played fantastic hockey during the period Edmonton needed him to rock steady until they could get to even. I see no reason to replace him in the starter’s net, and will remind you that goalie legends who make their mark on the game later in their careers are fairly common. My Grandma is screaming Johnny Bower in my ear from a distance, as an example I’m not saying Pickard is Bower, but I am saying he is here now and delivering. It’s a wonderful story, keep it going Mr. Pickard.
Possibly the best news for Oilers fans came after the game. Connor McDavid was interviewed, and displayed a real edge about the series and my read is the captain feels disrespected. Never disrespect an athlete, you will be wearing your ass for a hat. If McDavid has the whole room feeling that way, and you know he does, well, look the hell out.
Leon Draisaitl is down the page of mentions, but based on merit should be above the fold always. What a performance, and the winner was a seeing-eye single that counts among the biggest of his career. What a wonderful player.
Evan Bouchard was a tale of two defensemen last night. Chaos early and then complete brilliance late. What can one do? Bouchard helps his team win hockey games, the math screams it, the counting numbers confirm, and the results fall into place often. He does have chaos in his game, and single events can be death but remain single events. He’s not a perfect player, but my goodness he impacted both weekend games in a massive way. I remain convinced Bouchard should be part of the Oilers future.
Darnell Nurse was quality with Brett Kulak, chaos with Bouchard. I like this coaching staff, and they’re clearly bright, but the Nurse-Bouchard pairing needs to fade away in my opinion.
One of the reasons the staff runs Nurse-Bouchard is the emerging duo of Jake Walman and John Klinbgerg. I thought Klingberg had a tough game (the defensemen passes to a Kings player in the slot in front of the Oilers goalies are far too common) but the pairing was rock solid.
Ty Emberson did his strongest work on the PK (as usual) and Evan Bouchard saw time shorthanded.
It was a thrilling weekend, and I do think these Oilers should be favoured to win the series. It’s also true the other series involve teams hammering each other like a Bugs Bunny cartoon sponsored by the Acme Company, anvil division. What a difference the weekend made.
A busy day on the Lowdown, starting at noon on Sports 1440. Rachel Doerrie, CTO of Betalytics and host of Puck Social will join us at 12:40, Jason Gregor at 1:20. Wall-to-wall Oilers chatter about Game 5 and its importance, and we’ll have plenty of NFL draft talk. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
New for The Athletic: The history of Edmonton Oilers starting goalie tweaks in the postseason. Calvin Pickard joins a long list.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6315476/2025/04/28/edmonton-oilers-goalie-history-nhl-playoffs/
I am Leafs fan, but if there was ever a year for a deep Leafs run it’s this year. East looks very meh.
According to KK’s morning presser, the reason they didn’t challenge is because there was no separation between puck and pad.
He said the player has a right to make a play on that puck because it was visible tight to the pad, which he did.
Said they didn’t consider it very long and believed if they challenged they would have lost.
Thanks for pointing me to the 32 thoughts conversation. Between that and KK’s presser today, I find their decision making is defendable. I still would have challenged it, but I take back my organizational failure comment.
I thought in the moment the decision not to challenge probably cost them the game. So I may have come in a little hotter than needed with my post this morning.
The narrative on Bouchard being “good at offense bad on defense” is way to simplistic.
Bouchard is actually brilliant defensively but makes too many high risk plays. He’s all-world at defending each blueline. He generally isn’t prone to poor reads. He doesn’t get beat 1-on-1 all that often; he handled Kempe at full flight like a Sunday stroll and the play mentioned below is iconic.
There have been some fine candidates for play of the year but my goodness, on rewatch, it becomes clear that the Bouchard play on Byfield is head and shoulders above. Byfield gets that puck with a full head of steam, eyes up and 15 feet of space between him and a flat footed Bouchard.
Do you have any concept how difficult it is to stand still and pick clean a 6’4 magician skating at full speed?
Bouchard needs to be teamed up with low maintenance partner. Same thing goes for Nurse these two should never see the ice together.
This is my issue with giving Bouchard a $10m plus contract. We already have one high priced defender that needs constant support from the right type of partner. Once we sign Bouchard, we will have two high priced defenders that need constant support from the right type of partner.
Maybe. Bouchard is a lazy defender due to the fact that he has no panic. To your point, he expects that his skill will be enough to win the day. When in fact, this is the NHL, and the calibre of players in this league will make him look stupid. Which he often does when “trying” to defend.
A few roses for the line of Podkolzin, Janmark and Arvidsson who were devastating in overtime. They got in on the forecheck and landed body blow after body blow allowing the big dogs to deliver the knockout. Well done lads.
They kept the momentum going leading up to the penalty call.
Arvidsson was so tenacious on the puck in the game. I remember being so frustrated with him when he was on the other side. Nice to have him on our team.
I want to note what I think was two tweaks in the Oilers strategy to crack the Kings trap.
The Kings rope-a-dope style allows their 4 defense to handle huge minutes because they don’t really have to do much. So there needs to be a price to pay so that even if they break out cleanly 9 times out of 10, you’re still enacting some toll on them doing so.
Agree with you observations.
Bizz and Bones (post game on TNT last night) hit on your second point. As the 3rd period and OT went on, the Kings stopped forechecking and backed up to the point where they were the ice went from 200×85 to 100×85. Defense had no recovery time on the dump ins (which were better placed) before an Oilers forward was there to pound away.
Contrasted w/the first half of the game when LA extended the forecheck and created turnovers as the Oiler defense struggled.
Oilers really need to get back to simple breakouts early in the game so reduce turnovers and get the first goal of the game. Would force the Kings to open up – and really wear out the 14 skaters they play.
When it comes to goaltending, it’s worth remembering that the Flyers made the Cup final with the goaltending tandem of Ray Emery and Michael Leighton. Who was the starter and who was the backup? Who knows? They rode the hot hand.
It was Brian Boucher and Michael Leighton. Ray Emery was out with avascular necrosis in his hip and wouldn’t play that post-season. Leighton was the starter but was injured in March and didn’t play until coming in relief of Boucher in Game 5 of the second round. He then started the remaining 13 games. It’s interesting to note that Leighton suffered a back injury and only played 9 more NHL games after starting all 6 games in the 2010 Stanley Cup Finals.
My goodness, you’re right. That makes the point even more strongly – Brian Boucher had even less pedigree than Ray Emery.
We could actually determine which game is the MOST IMPORTANT GAME OF OUR LIFETIME if we looked at the disparity in likelihood of winning between different series states.
Down 2-0: 14% chance of winning series. Win (to 31% chance of winning series), Loss (to 2% chance of winning series), swing 29%
Down 2-1: 31% chance. Win (to 50%), Loss (to 9%), swing 41%
Tied 2-2: 50% chance. Win (to 79%), Loss (to 21%), swing 58%
Down 3-2: 21% chance. Win (to 50%), Loss (to 0%), swing 50%
Tied 3-3: 50% chance. Win (to 100%), Loss (to 0%), swing 100%
Shocker! Game 7 is the MOST IMPORTANT GAME.
I’ll admit, I didn’t see Game 5 being more important that Games 3/4/6.
(I’ll add, this doesn’t take into account which team starts at home vs which team starts on the road.)
I welcome methodological critiques.
https://records.nhl.com/records/playoff-team-records/league-situational-playoff-records/series-situational-records
FUN
— home team for game 5 would instinctively have a greater than 50% chance of winning the series.
— Hockey might be closer to 50% basketball. I’d guess the home team wins approx 60% when tied 2-2. In basketball ball higher. (Because basketball is about the top5 more and the higher seed wins way more than in hockey)
— obviously the “most important game” is always any elimination game.
** I looked it up for what is worth in a quick un-verified internet search :Game 5: NHL home team wins 58.6% of series when tied 2-2 when both teams win both games at home. The higher seed in b-ball it’s 76%: that jives with my “intuiton math”
— LA mathematically is favoured to win but this game isn’t as “important” as the next in terms of outcomes. Winning matters most
Interesting idea, but it gives you some peculiar outcomes, at least by my gut:
Down 2-0, gives you a smaller swing than 0-0 which implies that game 1 is a bigger occasion than down 2-0 and trying to stave off the deadly 3-0 deficit. That doesn’t pass the sniff test to me.
Additionally, it also implies that games are equally important for the leading and trailing team. That also doesn’t sniff in my opinion. A team trying to stay alive when down 3-0 has to win four times. A team trying to close out a series only has to win once. The stakes are different.
Then finally there’s the contextual element. e.g. I would posit that any given playoff game is less important to a 20 year old rookie than to a 36 year old veteran, all other things (such as playoff history) being equal.
Ignoring the contextual narratives, here’s my proposal: ((100% – probability to lose given a loss) + (probability to win if you win – current probability of winning)).
Essentially how far you are from winning if you lose + how much closer you are to winning if you win.
Down 2-0: 14% chance of winning series. Win (to 31% chance of winning series), Loss (to 2% chance of winning series): 100 – 2 + 31 – 14 = 115
Down 2-1: 31% chance. Win (to 50%), Loss (to 9%) = 110
Tied 2-2: 50% chance. Win (to 79%), Loss (to 21%) = 98
Down 3-2: 21% chance. Win (to 50%), Loss (to 0%) = 129
Tied 3-3: 50% chance. Win (to 100%), Loss (to 0%) = 150
Alternatively, the other team goes:
Up 2-0: 86% chance of winning series. Win (to 98% chance of winning series), Loss (to 69% chance of winning series): 100 – 69 + 98 – 86 = 43
Up 2-1: 69% chance. Win (to 91%), Loss (to 50%) = 71
Tied 2-2: 50% chance. Win (to 79%), Loss (to 21%) = 98 (it’s the same)
Up 3-2: 79% chance. Win (to 100%), Loss (to 50%) = 71
Tied 3-3: 50% chance. Win (to 100%), Loss (to 0%) = 150
That shakes out about right to me.
Love it. Game 6 if you are down is more important than game 5, despite a lower swing. If you hit 0, you are out.
So game 7, then 6, than 5, then 4… Seems as expected.
You have to use percent difference maybe, rather than just the difference in percentage. If that makes sense.
I was doubtful that Evander Kane would be able to return to top 6 form, and thought the most we could reasonably expect out of him was a bottom 6 crash-and-bang winger who could maybe chip in a goal or two a series (at most). Coming back from two surgeries, 33 years old, etc.
But man, he has looked fantastic since getting back in the lineup. Hope he can keep it up and stay healthy down the stretch
Kane has been playing hockey since he’s been 3 years old he hasn’t forgot how to play it was all about health and hunger. Kane will get another 2-3 year contract after next year he still has the wheels. Have you changed your mind on that $200 donation bet for this site? Your Kings have home ice with the Refs in your pocket.
McDavid, Drai and Kempe each have 9 points in the series.
Drai is +5
McDavid is +4
Kempe is -5
Special teams coming around is huge.
It seems like the Oilers have been in a slumber all season, and nothing has happened to take them back even remotely near the emotional level they reached in the Cup final. It was almost like they were still in the grieving process and lacked the mental energy to go through it all again. Last night it felt like it turned. I could be wrong, and they could come out flat again in LA, but I don’t think so.
So I went to the game last night. It was my first playoff game in a long time. If there are fans who are more passionate than Oiler fans I would be surprised. The arena was rocking for almost 4 hours. Would say 95% of fans wearing Oiler jerseys. Saw only 1 Kings jersey. Cheering, singing, dancing, chanting, clapping the entire time. It was an amazing experience despite the outcome which was fantastic. I swear the two guys sitting next to us each drank over $300 worth of beer. After the game walking to the LRT the streets were frantic with cheering fans and honking cars which carried on the LRT. Just an amazing evening.
Now for the game itself or two games. First two periods were not good. Kings dominated and were very physical,especially in the first period. It was like where did the Oilers passion go??? By the end of the 2nd I really thought we were done. Slowly the Oilers start taking over the third period and clearly were the better team. It was pandemonium when the empty net goal was scored! Oilers dominated OT and Kuemper was standing on his head keeping the Kings in the game. Oilers eventually overwhelmed the Kings to force a penalty call and Drai with the killing blow!
Couple observations. I was against resigning Perry. Wow was I wrong. Let that guy keep playing as long as he wants! I would be happy to never again see Nurse and Bouch on the ice at the same time…… Just doesn’t work.
Just a wonderful evening!
I flew back to Edmonton to go to Game 7 against the Kings in 2021-22 with my brother, our first ever NHL playoff game. What an experience – the intensity of playoff hockey is apparent on the TV but seeing it in person, just listening to the game and crowd without any announcers is another thing entirely.
And I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a crowd more jubilant than that crowd after the game. Even after we got out of the arena, everyone on the streets, police officers directing traffic, etc. were in a great mood.
Truly hope everyone gets to experience a playoff W live at least once in their life.
That’s a rich man’s hobby, us plebes will have to be content watching Keanu Reaves cheering on the penguin.
Lost in all the discussion is Fiala taking that pass with a high stick. It should’ve been blown dead.
I initially thought that too. But Fiala was hunch over and it’s high stick if higher than the normal shoulder height of an opponent. The crossbar height when it’s a shot or deflect on goal.
It’s funny you mention this, I just watched a video of Perry’s goal this morning that showed a great angle of that puck being above his shoulder when he hit the puck before he scored. That play should have also been blown dead.
The last replay that is behind Perry.
https://youtu.be/xdByqiK6ZV4?si=sZjjaxPCw6etWZWU
about the 50 second mark. That puck is mid visor height.
Perry’s counted because it cannot be hit in with a stick over the crossbar. However it hit Kuemper first then he knocked it in. They’re different.
After Perry hit that with the high stick it did not hit keeper. It hit the ice then he put it in. He shot the puck it hit kuemper went up in the air Perry struck out of the air, the puck landed in the crease and Perry hit it home.
You’re right so I checked the rule.
Players may not contact the puck with their stick, above the normal height of the shoulders. When this occurs, play will be stopped if the offending player, or a teammate, gains possession and control of the puck.
I rewatched and paused the replay when he made contact with the puck, it was not above his shoulders.
From Gregor:
It would be great to have Ekholm back if the Oilers make it to the conference finals – which they should!
Interesting note on this morning’s 32 Thoughts: Perry has spent more time in the gym this season on off days and in between games.
He’s playing less minutes most games than in the past and has felt at his age that more work between games is what he needs to keep his strength and what not up.
No wonder Leon thinks Perry could play until he’s 50.
“We’ll see about the boots…..”.
Looking at the oldest forwards during the modern era (I will include Mr. Hockey as he played in the ’80s), they were all right wingers.
Howe: 52 / 6′ / 205
Jagr: 45 / 6′-3″ / 230
Salanne: 43 / 6′ / 200
Recchi: 43 / 5′-11″ / 195
Perry: 39 / 6′-3″ / 208
Perry should be able to give the Oilers another 3 – 4 years!
— curious the more popular take vs before game 1::
1) more or less confident Oil win series
2) more or less confident Oil win Cup
— I suppose game 5 will solidify these takes. Game 5 matter a lot !
— I’m probably same in terms of confidence of winning series (underdog) and now less confident in winning Cup (which was low anyway)
LFGOILERS!!!
GM3 was the most important game of the playoffs – NHL teams just do not come back from down 3-0. Then GM4 was the most important game of the playoffs – not very often that an NHL team comes back from down 3-1. Now GM5 is the most important game of the playoffs – teams that go up 3-2 win 75% of the series. Note: if a team down 3-2 forces a game 7 they only win 21% of the time.
GM5 is not for all the first-round marbles but if the Oilers win that should be all she wrote for the LAKs.
1) I’m feelin’ a 60% chance the Oilers still win this series. Call it ‘somewhat confident’. I know it’s easy to feel overly optimistic after a big W, but LA is not going to go down easily and they are hard to beat in their own barn. Oilers still have waaay too many wrinkles in their game and LA has been the better team for more periods than the Oilers have been, for what it’s worth now that the series is sawed off.
2) 0% chance that the Oilers win the cup this year, for reasons noted above. I’d bump it up to 10% if Ekholm was likely to return to the line up in the second round.
— feel is good. I looked it up the maths say almost 60% Kings.
— I agree no chance shown to me that they can win Cup but winning more will alter this.
— win game 5 I give them 4.56% chance of winning Cup …
I loved the battle in Pickard and his reaction after Leon scored was priceless. The boys need to lock it down more as Pickard gains confidence and momentum. Pickard is not the second coming at 33 he’s battled his ass off to get back to the N.H.L. He does seem to have a bit of Roloson intensity the more comfortable he gets. I do hope the boys continue to rally around him and this story (Pickard) keeps gaining traction after every win.
They need to rally around whoever is in net.
LT, I note that you said pre-game 4 that Pickard should start every game until he loses. I would argue that unless he absolutely blows a game, the net should be his, win or lose, from here on out.
The difference this year is that he’s won both games. I don’t think that Pickard is better than Skinner, as much as I don’t think Skinner is any better than Pickard. If Pickard starts game five and loses & a fresh Skinner wins the next two to win the series, that is what you call a tandem. For success this year they need both.
Pickard has been the better goalie this year. Pickard has won 2 must win games to save the season. Do the players play harder in front of Pickard you tell me? Why not just give Pickard his due instead of casting shade on him.
Who’s casting shade?
I was at the game last with my friend sitting 112 behind the kings net for 2 periods. The 1st 30mins was tough the kings kept playing the center ice and my god flip the puck in over and over. The nurse flop on the second goal with picks way out his net was not fun to see. But once they tied it in the third it was an u real game and I kept believing. Overtime was a great freaking experience
LT: What does the math say about Nurse-Walman as a pairing so far this year? I think we’ve seen almost every combination of defensemen the past two games but I don’t recall seeing 25-96 at all.
Understand there will be a small sample size, and I would predict it’s almost as chaotic as 25-2, but I’d be interested to see what the fancystats say.
2024-2025 Regular Season
5v5
Nurse-Walman: 62 xGF%, 80 GF% (8 GF, 2 GA), 106 min.
Nurse-Bouchard: 64 xGF%, 62 GF% (8 GF, 5 GA). 115 min.
KK not challenging the Foegele “goal” for goalie interference is a near unforgivable mistake for me. It should not be lost in the thrilling victory that decision was worse than any mistake an Oiler has made on the ice. The Edmonton bench didn’t even summon the refs to get clarification on the call and buy some extra time for the review.
Pickard was beyond adamant that it was interference. It was. I don’t know how he held it together after the Coaching staff failed to have his back.
The replay showed Warren distinctly poking his stick into Pickard’s pad (the stick flex’s FFS). The movement is clearly not a swipe at the puck. It’s hard for the on ice officials to catch that in real-time. I think Warren is surprised that one counted.
Friedman and Bieksa were confident during the intermission that was textbook inference. Friedman mentioned that he called the league earlier in the year to get some clarification on the Michkov goal against the Oilers.
Friedman made efforts to clarify the rules. Do NHL coaches seek this clarification? Video Coaches? Organizational failure.
It’s also an indictment on the league. The way the game is called should not be a secret from the players and coaches. There’s nothing stopping the league from reviewing that goal and informing and educating all teams and the FANS that the call would have reversed. As usual, the refs are the worst performers on the ice in this series. This is why replay exists. The league needs to utilize it more. NFL and NBA have done it. Gary’s not interested.
With the CBA expiring I would make it a non-negotiable demand that the NHLPA takes over the Department of Player safety and all oversight for the Officiating. The leagues conflict of interest in this area has never been greater than this moment in time. Perhaps you’ve notice the gambling ads and Canada’s 32 year cup drought.
Friedmans clarification was that a similar play with Michkov was allowed.
Edit: I didn’t like the goal and thought it was GI, but it’s not my job to know.
He also said in his segment that the Oil crew is one of the best and sits in with situation rooms when able. Also, our guy is known for calling the situation room after and asking, ‘what wouldve happened if i did challenge that?’ Friedman said all of this. They were excellent during the run last year.
I think they knew more than you did on this one.
Friedman used the Michkov example as a play that was different – not the same.
I said similar, not the same. Maybe the Oil knew a different example than the one Friedman thought of between periods that was more clear.
Agreed. I’d love to know what they know. It’s taxing on a fan. As fans we have no way of knowing. KK wasn’t asked at the post-game press conference.
I thought the Oilers were excellent on challenges with Jeremy Coupall sp? and Woodcroft. I’ve noticed a number of missed opportunities under KK and since Jeremy left the organization. They are less confident and playing it safe IMO.
I must have missed the part where it was mentioned “the Oil crew is one of the best and sits in with the situation room” Do you recall when this mentioned?
A direct quote from Friedman during the 2nd intermission “Noah Siegal, who is the video coach for the Oilers is good at this, so the fact that he doesn’t challenge tells me something. But in this situation my reaction was 100% challenge this, and let me explain why.” He then goes on the show the video and the poking motion to support his opinion.
Derek LaLonde immediately retorts that he wouldn’t have challenged this. He goes on to cite some post traumatic situation as a head coach, when he was thrown out of a game. What’s interesting is he speculates that “the Oilers, similar to us, have a 100% rule”. Don’t challenge unless your 100%.
I think that’s a terrible policy. 100% certainty is elusive. Anything above 60% conviction for me, you challenge. the PK% is up to 53.3% now. The math is applicable here.
From my vantage point, and Friedman’s, it was a mistake.
Yep you’re right. He mentioned it in the 32 thoughts podcast this morning at about the 9 minute mark, not the original segment.
If you don’t get a chance to listen, he said Noah Segel(?) has stayed the night in the situation room when the opportunity presents itself and does what i mentioned above. Friedman did say he would’ve challenged, as would I.
At the end he said because Segel didn’t it gave him pause whether he was right. It’s possible they’ve seen a play outside of the Michkov example that informed them or, as Friedman mused, maybe they were gunshy.
When I hear hoofbeats i think horses not zebras and it was likely they didn’t call it because they didn’t think they would win.
There is no way the Foegele goal would be overturned on review. It was 50-50 at best. No way close to a 100% bet.
I didn’t know Jim Hiller posted in this blog! -).
It may have been the follow through from his initial shot attempt that caught Pickard’s pad.
It may have been viewed an incidental contact. It was risky to say the least for Knoblauch to challenge. It ended up being a non-factor in hindsight.
In slow-motion is appears to definitively be interference.
But the game isn’t played in slow-motion, and in real time Foegele was jousting for the puck in the crease. It’s hard to argue goalie interference at the speed of the play.
I understand that the refs missed it live. I maintain as does Friedman that a replay challenge should have overturned the on ice call. I’ve been watching the replay of the play and intermission multiple times today. I’m not privy to all the info that the team has, but I’m firm in my opinion here. I also understand the team does not have the luxury of time to make the call.
I’ll make one last comment before I move on with my day. In today’s presser Matheson asks KK about the decision not to challenge about 8 minutes in. He gives a great explanation that assures me that he’s very aware of how the league decides that situation. I recommend it for educational purposes.
However he says they did not consider it long. He explains why and I can now understand why he didn’t challenge. I still respectably disagree with his decision and his description doesn’t make mention of the poke vs swipe that Friedman clearly says is something the league looks at. He should have given the challenge more consideration IMO. I have however personally forgiven KK for the decision.
LT wrote “ I remain convinced Bouchard should be part of the Oilers future.”
Do you still feel that way about S Skinner?
Stu Skinner should be appropriately slotted as the Oilers backup goalie next season, playing 30-35 games.
If Pickard wins the series he starts next season as the team’s #1.
No need to drastically alter our goaltending. Both guys are NHL caliber, playing on value contracts. Skinner still has time to grow and improve his game, while Pickard is aging like fine cheese.
If Pickard holds down the net and does a serviceable job, but the Oilers come up short this postseason, it probably makes more sense to trade Pickard when his value is at its absolute highest, and bring in an upgrade on Pickard to be the starter/1A to Skinner’s backup/1B.
I think he has some pretty apparent physical limitations that limit his ceiling as a goaltender, and expecting a career backup who gets hot playing behind two of the best players in his generation for a few playoff series to repeat that performance and suddenly turn into an above average starter at age 33 doesn’t seem like a great bet.
Then again, goalies are voodoo, and it’s entirely possible he’s able to do so, I just don’t like those odds.
People knock KK for not having emotion but if emotion is Jim Hiller’s hissy fit postgame I don’t want it.
That was pretty hilarious. The way he kept going back to the reporter trying to joke it off showed just how rattled he is. It was the exact same type of reaction Skinner had with the LA crowd before he got pulled.
Even more glaring that they are rattled was Foegele’s postgame. He just kept saying they just didn’t get the bounces over and over again. No admission of how they got pumped in the shot clock in the 3rd and OT. Just kept saying it was just a couple of bounces.
Perks to having a large tv in 4k is seeing things like Hiller’s lip quivering from being upset and trying to make it seem as if he wasn’t rattled.
He also oddly rejected the idea that his players would be emotionally impacted from the loss.
Coaching still could be a big factor in deciding this series.
19-18 total goals LAK
11-9 5v5 goals LAK
3-0 6v5 goals EDM
1-0 4v4 goals LAK
2-0 EN goals EDM
7-4 PP goals LAK
17-10 PP opportunities LAK
The special team goals gap is closing.
LAK 7/17 PP is 41%, Edm 4/10 is 40%.
Note should be made LA only team that has had (2) 5 on 3s, so the percentage is a bit flattering to them.
Interesting that if you add the 3 6 on 5 goals to our PP goals we are even. Edm has made up the ref-induced difference by emptying the net to create their own power plays 🙂
Wow! I didn’t know the 17-10 PP opportunity advantage for LA. That is an absolute disgrace. Thanks for highlighting that.
Actually it makes sense. LA has outplayed us for majority of the game times. For example, Oilers did not start skating yesterday till the 3rd period and beyond.
— hey I’ve been away last week. I see series tied 2-2. LA has 2 home games vs 1 for Oil.
— Oil need to win on road : like always.
— what have I missed?
— Do we still rate Oil favourites? Asking as I’ve been away last week. How have they looked?
It’s been a tale of two tapes. They’ve looked awful. They’ve looked spectacular. The third period and OT of game four has been their best of the series by far
The Podkolzin shifts in overtime really made a impact, Kane seems to have the forwards that you know can be more physical being more physical following his lead.
Shaq Hyman showed up last night
That bullrush with the Oilers net empty was a thing of beauty.
Politics aside, how about Tim Thomas as a comparable for Cal Pickard?
Thomas caught fire in his mid-30’s.
All Picks does is win win win.
Edmonton plays better in third periods because the top of the Oilers roster is must better than the top of the Kings roster.
First 2 periods the rosters are more even and I think the Kings structured game gives them the advantage. Come third period the bench is shortened significantly and Oilers top players really push. Advantage Oilers.
Extremely enjoyable game last night with the good guys coming out on top.
The Oilers won so I said “yes”
NHL
@NHL
Connor Hellebuyck, Darcy Kuemper, and Andrei Vasilevskiy are your Vezina Trophy finalists.
The Vezina Trophy is awarded every year “to the goaltender adjudged to be the best at his position”. https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f44f.svg
Its interesting – those three are getting crushed in the playoffs.
Vasilevskiy the best of the bunch at .890……
Hellebuyck just doing his usual PO collapse. The last three (3) years the Jets have been a playoff team finishing 14th, 4th and this year 1st overall. During this 3-year span, CH has a regular season SV% average of 0.922 and a playoff SV% of 0.856. CH is the Dominator during the regular season and should win another Vezina this year but just cannot seem to do it when it counts the most.
It’s been a tough playoffs for almost all goalies, many of whom (Helly, Bobs, Otter, Hill) getting yanked and others (Montembeault, Andreson) injured – who had Blackwood or Stolarz as the best G in the playoffs this year? Lots of time yet, of course.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Pittsburgh and Mike Sullivan are parting ways
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
With Sullivan moving on, current NHL head coaching vacancies:
Bruins
Rangers
Flyers
Blackhawks
Ducks
Kraken
Penguins
Stil TBD
Canucks
Islanders
Woodie could rise again!
Yeah you’d think he would be getting interviewed for some of these teams. He deserves another run in the NHL…
I think they have to go:
Kulak – Bouchard
Walman – Kling
Nurse – Stetcher
Throw in some mix and match shifts.
Nurse – Bouchard is too much chaos for one pair.
I like this.
The coaches want Emberson over Stetcher for the PK.
But I think this gives you three pairings that work on 5 on 5.
Stecher can PK.
I like this alignment. Troy Stetcher has really impressed me this year. Smart player, very good positionally and never seems to make a dumb decision. His size means he can be overmatched at times, but he does a good job of recognizing his shortcomings and limiting the situations where he can get exposed.
If he was 6’4 220 he’d be a borderline all-star
Seems like the only reasonable pairings from what we have seen so far. Approved!
Poor Jim Hiller is taking the heat. Much like Kris Knoblauch was taking the heat after the team lost both games in LA. Go figure.
Except in Hiller’s case he fully deserves the criticism.
Maybe??
Jake Walman has played 83:03 in the 4-games against LA – and LEADS the NHL this post season in +/-. Getting this player for the 2026 1st is turning out to be a very good trade by Bowman.
Especially with Ekholm’s injury. Walman sure isn’t perfect, some people on this comment section last night let everyone know. Without him, this defence would be even scarier.
Good player but defense and pk is not his forte.
Morning… thanks Northern Harvest.
I was forced to talk to my lady during the intermission, what was the consensus on the talking heads regarding the Foegele-Pickard non-challenge goal? I was pretty surprised it wasn’t challenged.
McDavid post-game “That was fun!” ~holding said Acme anvil
Kudos for the anvil reference.
As I remember it, panel was OK with the non-challenge, especially coach: only make a challenge when you’re 100% right. Can’t risk the PP if you’re wrong.
Nothing is 100% when your dealing with Toronto and grey-area rules I do believe it was 70%-30% that they wave it off. Pickard was sure of it but as is the case so was Walman on the failed challenge on the puck over the glass. The Walman challenge should of been won you can see the rotation of the puck instantly change. Basketball challenges are always won on the unnatural rotation if it’s barely touched.
Maybe Knoblauch was wise not to challenge. I’m sure Hiller wishes he hadn’t.
There is no way the Foegele goal would be overturned if it was challenged. Foegele was playing the puck, the intent was to play the puck, making it a 50-50% call for overturning, not anything close to 100%.
Poppycock! Beiska-Friedman have more of a pulse on the game than that old anti Oiler fossil Coach that agrees with you.
Knoblauch agrees with my take in his presser today.
22 yo offensive phenom Clarke can’t get pp time or any ice time. Is this any way to develop a top prospect?
HH’s kiss of death strikes yet again!
Need him to come on here and endorse Kempe that guys a killer, especially to the Oil.
Kempe has 9 points and is -5 on the series.
Is 9 points in 4 games good?
Kempe was on for both empty netters in game 3 and was part of the team meltdown game 1. Shut him down game 4 along with their powerplay.
Context.
First 27:32 of the game: LA 22-9 shots / 3-1 LA lead
Last 50:46 of the game: Oil 40-19 shots / 4-3 Oil win
Total Shots: 49-41 Oil
Final Score: 4-3 Oil
Save Percentage: Captain Pickard – 0.927 / Kuemper – 0.917
Oilers are starting to get it together offensively and Pickard is holding the fort. Just need the team to go as hard as they did in OT from the start of GM5 – please and thank you. Need to see if the LA Kings can come back again when they are down by two (or more).
Fiala-Kempe-Foegele holy smokes are these guys jailbreakering on us. Somebody needs to lay one of them out at centre ice they’re having a field day especially in the first 40 minutes.
I’m not worried about Foegele getting 2 breakaways a game. He did that for us and never scored.
Point Kane at Kempe and say ‘ruin his day’, maybe Trevor Moore while he’s at it too. I don’t trust ‘functional meat’ Freddy to not get scored on in that process.
You mean the Foegele who scored in all alone last night? 🙂
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut when he runs through the tree.
Prospectition!
The Knights have had a fairly easy time in these playoffs with ten straight wins and never trailing by more than one*. Their first two games vs. Kitchener have seen the Knights jump out to big leads and cruise therefrom. The series shifts to Kitchener today–can the Londoners have a 3-0 stranglehold by day’s end? We wait.
O’Reilly enters the game with a 19-game point streak (reg/playoffs) during which he has 35 points (15 + 20). His 17 playoff points are fourth on the team, while Nicholl has 1 + 4 in 10 playoff matches, tied for 13th in points.
Puck drops @ 5 p.m. St. Francis time.
*I think?
Thank you for another great update.
I think Sam O’Reilly is going to have a long & prosperous career in the NHL.
Somebody in the organization targeted him enough to swap last years pick for this years pick even though he was projected to be a later pick then when Edmonton drafted him.
Not only that, but unless the Oilers win the Cup this year, the pick they dealt would be higher than the pick they acquired to select O’Reilly.
The Oilers brass, knowing the best they could do was break even on the pick swap, must have felt (a) O’Reilly was worth any possible downgrade in pick value (so far, so good) and/or (2) this year’s draft class was weaker than last year’s.
Forgot to mention he’s also in a 3-way tie for first (with two non-Nicholl teammates) in the OHL playoffs with a +18.
The guy has killer written all over him.
Right-handed, wins faceoffs, kills penalties, 200′ game, and scores goals.
“It was a thrilling weekend, and I do think these Oilers should be favoured to win the series. It’s also true the other series involve teams hammering each other like a Bugs Bunny cartoon sponsored by the Acme Company, anvil division. What a difference the weekend made.”
Love this! And, with the exception of my Habs losing in the final four minutes last night, the weekend.
I too was rooting for the Habs last night. And I tend not to.
Still a chance!
Like the Oilers, Habs will not go quietly into the night. Too much spirit. And so young. In the next few years they will dominate. In the meantime, they are exciting to watch. The only consolation of them not making it out of the East is that I won’t have to choose, Habs or Oilers. But next year? I’ll be wearing two jerseys April-June.
Oilers need to bare down and win game five in LA. They can’t rest on their laurels just yet.
Agreed. But I’m thinking they do it. In six. The Habs v Caps? I’m not as confident, though that team is full of surprises. And the addition of Demidov… wow.
Caps might be SCF bound.
Oilers? Rest on laurels? Heck, they’ll make laurels their home!
Part of Denault’s post game interview…
“We have to find a way to seal the deal. It’s the little mistakes. It’s not only against Edmonton. In the next round, it’s the same thing”
Already talking about going on to the next round? Foolish move and I hope he comes to regret it.
Given their home record, I think the Kings are feeling they’ll still close this out in seven games with their home ice advantage. But given their deployment and TOI, I’m not sure the Kings will even have much left in the tank by game seven.
Denault is talking about next year after getting traded to the Metro. hahahahahahaha
Ahem….like Byfield failure to clear the zone……..whoops
What does he know about going two rounds in the playoffs?
oh yeah, it’s pronounced ‘Duh…no!’
Mistakes are going to be made. Mistakes happen when fatigue sets in, it’s the same for all teams.
Big win last night. Rest up and onto the LA!
Big shout out to Corey Perry. 1G and a real smart play to keep the puck alive on the GWG. The physical skills have dismissed with age, but he’s such a smart hockey player and a real PITA! Reminds us how good he was during his prime years, and he could have been an Oiler (sigh).
Watching him play night in, night out has been such a treat. You don’t notice the little things he does without repeat viewing without the animosity of him being on the other side. The cross-check to open space for the cross-crease pass from McDavid in G3(?) was one of my favorite plays he’s made this year – absolutely filthy, completely undetectable by the officials, and results in a huge goal.
Bouchard is a play-off superstar. Dman who impact most games are rare. A NHL defenseman that manages a tight gap and keep the play outside of the home base, can make a great living and play in the NHL for many, many years.
What Bouchard does is very special and we are lucky as a fan base to watch him every night.
He is truly an elite defenceman.
Us fans are tremendously lucky to get to watch him play in an Oilers jersey. Hopefully this will remain the case for years to come.
It’s like he can’t focus unless the weight of the whole world is resting on squarely on his shoulders. Not even just offensively, he made some fantastic defensive plays in OT also.
Not to mention that outstanding keep when Byfield tried skating the puck out with the net empty.
That single mistake decided the game and perhaps the series.
Most ppl view it as a mistake by Byfield…
Byfield’s decision to carry it out was terrible, almost confusing.
Or, maybe we’re just starting to see those mistakes that come with fatigue?
Or, Bouch made one helluva play to read the play and keep the zone.
I personally think Byfield got cocky and Bouch made him look like a fool.
He is a 25-year-old young man playing 23 minutes a night in the NHL, often with the best players in the world on the ice at the same time.
At 25, most young men are still playing video games and sleeping to noon on Saturday.
Yep, 100%. As much as the brain farts can be infuriating at times (his slow reaction to Fiala getting past him on the 3-1 goal, etc.), he more than makes up for it with his positive contributions elsewhere.
His poor defense is making the early series take too many games, and increasing the wear and tear on the team, particularly, McDavid and Draisaitl.
And without Bouchard’s two goals in back to back games, is the series already over?
I would suggest that Darnell Nurse has been culpable on more goals against this playoffs than Bouchard – and its not really close.
This isn’t a contest.
We were lucky to only be down 1 after 2 periods. Kings were full marks after 2 periods. Without the fluky goal by Bouchard and the all time brain cramps by Byfield we lose the game and more than likely the series. Pickard was adamant that was a no goal by Foegele Coach K.K blew the pooch on that one. I expect Edmonton to clamp it down the 1st 10 minutes as the Kings have owned us in 3 out of 4 games in that area.
But Bouchard did score the fluky goal, and the Oilers did win…
I don’t understand negative hindsight. Enjoy the win, even though it wasn’t perfect.
It’s similar to “if the Oilers scored on their earlier chances / if Keumper wasn’t screened / if Bouchard didn’t have brain cramps / if KK had challenged / if Ekholm wasn’t injured / etc”
On the other hand, the Kings were lucky to be up by 1 after two periods…
Oilers were actually down 2 after 2. It was 3-1 LA in the 2nd intermission.
Good thing the Oilers made the non-challenge on the Foegoal moot.
Oops I meant down only 1 after the poor opening frame.
i just watched the third and overtime after coming home from work. What a gutsy 2 periods by the team. I think our host is right, coaches have to separate Nurse and Bouch. Nurse is not sharp enough to predict and provide the layer of support Bouch needs. I’d try Kulak with Bouch and fade the minutes a little. I’d continue Walman Klingberg and play Nurse and Stecher. I know Emberson has played well on the pk but I think the rest of the game state could be more steady with those pairings playing more even minutes. Man this team.
also as our host has said the difference between this teams floor and ceiling is bigger than any other contender. You can see it even within games. Hope they can carry some
momentum into the start of next game. Jump on some of LA and their coach and fan doubt!
Been waiting for “that thing” that makes this season feel like 24-25 and not just 23-24’s hangover. I wonder if last night’s period 3/OT was that thing.
I think you’re right on the D pairs. I would like to see them playing all 6 not 5 5v5
I think you nailed it with the optimal defense pairs. Stecher should be back for game 5 in LA. If not Nurse & Emberson works, they just need to trust Emberson more. To beat LA they need to play everyone. They’re a four line team and they can get away with 5 defensemen but I think they would be even better playing all six. LA wouldn’t stand a chance with Ekholm in the lineup.
Kulak-Bouchard
Walman-Klingberg
Nurse-Stecher/Emberson
Only Orr is ahead of Bouchard when it comes to points per game* in the playoffs, pay him and move along to sorting out the rest.
*for rearguards
For sure. Find him a good partner and balance the rest. Maybe that’s still Ek going forward, maybe Walman can be back up. Definitely not Nurse it seems
Game breakers are rare, keep them
Nurse is really struggling again. Not sure what the answer is. He was much better in Games 1 & 2 (I think?).
Nurse isn’t a cerebral player. He needs a partner that can help him. Like Ek for Bouch
Nurse has been best with Kulak or Stecher
With what’s currently available imo it’s Kulak until the wheels fall off or Ekholm pulls a recovery miracle.
I like the Walman/Kling pairing, Nurse seems to be ok with Stetcher, Emberson is probably serviceable with Nurse.
I wonder how much Nurse will be pressured by management this off season to accept a new area code.
Trade him for Dobson!
Nurse is a roamer. Walman also not a shut down D. Closest game to Ekholm looks like Kulak. Fast, great defender.
But then I do not see Kulak – Bouchard as a top pair.
Nurse the roamer also needs an anchor
And Walmans strength is also more on the offensive side
This is Emerson’s first real year in the NHL, hes done well.
Ekholm fits in as an anchor for Nurse or Walman, a support player for Bouchard or a mentor for Emberson. We miss you Ekholm.
Drai: let’s win this.
McD: Hold on, legends are not made by merely winning. Let’s spot them a couple of goals.
Drai: nah let’s spot them a couple of games
McD nah, let’s spot them a couple of goals after spotting them a couple of games.
Bouch: Hey guys, can we go yet?
McD and Drai: ok, now let’s go.
Funny but sounds about right.
This strategy loses Stanley Cups, because of wear and tear. One should want to win as quickly as possible to reduce wear and tear and bumps and bruises and injury risk.
Correct.
Get the 80s guys to talk to them about the importance of those 4 and 5 game wins to survive what can be ahead.
The 80s guys were playing weak teams in the first round. They still lost once (82).
Despite Kings going with 9F and 4D, it’s the Oilers trio of McD, Drai, Bouch who lead everyone in ice time, and it is that trio who have more minutes then all the rest who only seem to get more sensational when all the kings men seem to run out of gas.
Incredible.
It’s true but it is more exhausting to defend those three than to play the natural offensive game of McDavid Drai and Bouch. Bouch, love it or hate it because of the slow motion at times is built to play big minutes. He doesn’t tire. But the other lines kept it going.. mostly..
You might want to check those TOIs again. Yes, Bouchard played 35:54 but Edmundson played more (36:16) — and all four LA defensemen played more minutes that either McDavid (30:47) or Draisaitl (30:50).
I’m aware of the barriers, but feel Nurse is the defender the Oil should move this summer. He was much better for stretches this season, but his lack of game sense is startling. Nurse and Bouch together is a Shakespeare tragedy – or comedy? Depends on perspective I guess.
Pickard is playing well. But he has a strange blocker movement that is often exploited. I mentioned it earlier in the year – he looks like we did as kids playing street hockey with our massive kick saves. The blocker rotates out versus staying square.
I had high hopes for him coming into the playoffs, but all of a sudden the starfish on the ice move is back in his game, which to me is always a signal of his hockey sense being overwhelmed. I agree, he is the guy to move this summer if it brings back someone who can help in goal. He does have a full No move until 2027, so I don’t know how that affects things, but he is a guy I would consider changing.
Bowman said he doesn’t see NMC’s as a problem. It would take some brass. But to get to the next level – which is there – they have to move from players that can’t play a full solid 60 most games, especially playoffs games
It’s pretty tough to pay a guy that who only was above water with one partner last game. He’s supposed to be able to anchor a pair
I mean Bowman can say all he wants about NMCs but Nurse isn’t going anywhere this offseason unless he wants out.
Darnell Nurse is a good defenceman. He skates like the wind, can shoot & handle the puck, and his 5on5 scoring numbers are consistently top 30-45 among defencemen.
His toughness is also welcome.
But it is clear now that Bouchard is the player to build the defence around. And the lack of fit between Bouchard and Nurse is concerning both now & into the future.
Trading Nurse for let’s say Sean Durzi could really help this team.
Despite Bouchard’s offensive gifts, a team cannot build a defence core around a player who struggles to play defence.
I also though Durzi should have been a target when he was previously traded.
Yes, Bouchard, like all NHL players, makes mistakes.
But Evan Bouchard does not struggle to play defence.
He’s a top 5 defender in most advanced stat categories and top 15 in the ones he’s not.
In the past two seasons among defencemen, Bouchard ranks 5th in even strength points, 11th in even strength goals, and 12th in +/-.
Plainly, that is without a doubt a top 30 defenceman in the NHL.
Oilers lineups with Bouchard consistently outshoot, outscore, & outchance the opposition. If you don’t think that’s a defenceman worthy of building around, who is a defenceman worthy of building around?
Durzi who had the exact same GA/60 as Bouchard this season?
That’s funny. I don’t like Pickard’s glove hand either. But somehow, he finds a way to win.
I went to bed early, thinking the game was done. The Oilers were not breaking the King’s forecheck & spent very little time in their zone. My sons stayed up to watch and woke me up when Bouchard tied it. Obviously the King’s strategy of shortening the bench is kicking them in the butt when the Oil getting rolling in the third periods. Hopefully, the Oilers can play a more complete game in LA tomorrow, stay away from the Bouchard – Nurse pairing and come back with a 3-2 lead.
If you haven’t read Bruce Curlock’s breakdown of the tactics over on Oilers Nation, I would encourage you to do that today, when he releases his observations on last night’s game. It really helps me understand better what I am seeing on the ice.
Perhaps you had the Kings in bed with you? They seemed to go to sleep (or wished they could have) after 40 minutes.
I agree about Curlock. I’m enjoying the reading and insights.
I first heard him on Got Yer Back. Another GYB find is coach Marsh who’s adding some interesting insights to recent GYB postgame podcasts.
Edmonton held on for the first half of the game. Then LA was gassed for the second half and Oilers took over, completely dominated the OT.
Go Pickard Go!!
He was fired up when they were celebrating the man has come along way the last 3 years. It may not be a feel good story for some sour grapes folks but it is for me. Even though Pickard had a better regular season I could see the reasoning of going to Skinner in game 1 but my heavens after the ghastly losing goal by Danault It should of been Pickard net in game 2.